Factors associated with resolution of childhood asthma by the age of 17: Large cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Many children with asthma will become asymptomatic during adolescence. In this study, we evaluated factors associated with recovery from asthma by the age of 17.

METHODS

The medical records of 17-year-old conscripts to the Israeli army with asthma were compared with the records of conscripts with rigorously diagnosed resolved asthma. We assessed the association between the following parameters and asthma resolution: body mass index (BMI), recurrent rhinitis, birth season, socioeconomic level, and cognition.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight thousand and ninety conscripts with active asthma were compared to 14,695 with resolved asthma. In univariate analysis, rhinitis, overweight, underweight, higher socioeconomic level, and lower cognitive score were associated with active asthma (p < 0.001 for both sexes), but not the season of birth. In multivariate analysis, only overweight, underweight, rhinitis, and lower cognitive score (p < 0.001 for both sexes) remained significantly associated with persistence of asthma.

CONCLUSIONS

Although association does not prove causation, our finding is another reason to encourage adolescents with asthma to maintain a normal body weight. Prospective interventional studies are needed in order to decide whether changing weight to ensure BMI is within the ideal range and controlling rhinitis increases the odds of resolution of asthma in adolescence.

Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and Obesity: A National Study of 1.1 Million Israeli Adolescents

PURPOSE

The incidences of obesity and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have increased in parallel over recent decades. We assessed the association between obesity and ADHD in a national sample of adolescents.

METHOD

In a nationwide population-based study of 1 118 315 adolescents (57% males; mean age 17 years), risks of obesity were compared between individuals with severe and mild ADHD and those without ADHD. Diagnoses of ADHD were confirmed by specialists in either neurology or psychiatry. Adolescents requiring regular and continuous treatment with stimulants with no improvement of symptoms under treatment were classified as having severe ADHD; data were available from 2004 to 2019. During 2015 to 2019, the diagnosis of ADHD was defined, and 65 118 (16.76%) of 388 543 adolescents with mild symptoms who required medications only for learning or who used stimulants irregularly were defined as having mild ADHD.

RESULTS

The prevalence of severe and mild ADHD was 0.3% and 20.1%, respectively. Obesity was more prevalent among adolescents with severe ADHD than among those without ADHD (13.5% vs 7.5%). In the mild ADHD group 12.6% of males and 8.4% of females were diagnosed with obesity compared to 9.7% and 6.4%, respectively, in the non-ADHD group. The adjusted odds of severe ADHD for males and females with obesity were 1.77 (1.56-2.02) and 2.09 (1.63-2.66) times the odds for males and females with low-normal body mass index, respectively, and 1.42 (1.37-1.48) and 1.42 (1.34-1.50) for males and females with mild ADHD, respectively. The elevated risk persisted in several sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Both adolescents with severe and mild ADHD are at increased risk for obesity.

Adolescent Blood Pressure and the Risk for Early Kidney Damage in Young Adulthood

BACKGROUND

Recent guidelines classified blood pressure above 130/80 mm Hg as hypertension. However, outcome data were lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between blood pressure in adolescence and the risk for early kidney damage in young adulthood.

METHODS

In this nationwide cohort study, we included 629 168 adolescents aged 16 to 20 who underwent medical examinations before mandatory military service in Israel. We excluded 30 466 adolescents with kidney pathology, hypertension, or missing blood pressure or anthropometric data at study entry. Blood pressure measurements at study entry were categorized according to the Clinical Practice Guideline for Screening and Management of High Blood Pressure in Children and Adolescents: group A (<120/<80 mm Hg; Reference group), group B (120/<80-129/<80 mm Hg), group C (130/80-139/89 mm Hg), and group D (≥140/90 mm Hg). Early kidney damage in young adulthood was defined as albuminuria of ≥30 mg/g with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 60 mL/(min·1.73 m²) or over.

RESULTS

Of 598 702 adolescents (54% men), 2004 (0.3%) developed early kidney damage during a mean follow-up of 15.1 (7.2) years. The adjusted hazard ratios for early kidney damage in blood pressure group C were 1.17 (1.03-1.32) and 1.51 (1.22-1.86) among adolescents with lean (body mass index <85th percentile) and high body mass index (body mass index ≥85th percentile), respectively. Corresponding hazard ratios for kidney disease in group D were 1.49 (1.15-1.93) and 1.79 (1.35-2.38) among adolescents with lean and high body mass index, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood pressure of ≥130/80 mm Hg was associated with early kidney damage in young adulthood, especially in adolescents with overweight and obesity.

Myopia and Early-Onset Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Cohort Study

CONTEXT

A correlation between myopia and insulin resistance has been suggested.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between myopia in adolescence and type 2 diabetes (T2D) incidence in young adulthood.

METHODS

This population-based, retrospective, cohort study comprised 1 329 705 adolescents (579 543 women, 43.6%) aged 16 to 19 years, who were medically examined before mandatory military service during 1993 to 2012, and whose data were linked to the Israel National Diabetes Registry. Myopia was defined based on right-eye refractive data. Cox proportional models were applied, separately for women and men, to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for T2D incidence per person-years of follow-up.

RESULTS

There was an interaction between myopia and sex with T2D (P < .001). For women, T2D incidence rates (per 100 000 person-years) were 16.6, 19.2, and 25.1 for those without myopia, and with mild-to-moderate and high myopia, respectively. These corresponded to HRs of 1.29 (95% CI, 1.14-1.45) and 1.63 (1.21-2.18) for women with mild-to-moderate and high myopia, respectively, compared to those without myopia, after adjustment for age at study entry, birth year, adolescent body mass index, cognitive performance, socioeconomic status, and immigration status. Results persisted in extensive sensitivity and subgroup analyses. When managed as a continuous variable, every 1-diopter lower spherical equivalent yielded a 6.5% higher adjusted HR for T2D incidence (P = .003). There was no significant association among men.

CONCLUSION

For women, myopia in adolescence was associated with a significantly increased risk for incident T2D in young adulthood, in a severity-dependent manner. This finding may support the role of insulin resistance in myopia pathogenesis.

The opposing trends of body mass index and blood pressure during 1977-2020; nationwide registry of 2.8 million male and female adolescents

Background

Elevated blood pressure among adolescents has been shown to be associated with future adverse cardiovascular outcomes and early onset diabetes. Most data regarding systolic and diastolic blood pressure trends are based on surveys of selected populations within 10–20-year periods. The goal of this study was to characterize the secular trend of blood pressure given the rising prevalence of adolescent obesity.

Methods

This nationwide population-based study included 2,785,515 Israeli adolescents (41.6% females, mean age 17.4 years) who were medically evaluated and whose weight, height and blood pressure were measured, prior to mandatory military service between 1977 and 2020. The study period was divided into 5-year intervals. Linear regression models were used to describe the P for trend along the time intervals. Analysis of covariance was used to calculate means of blood pressure adjusted for body mass index.

Results

During the study period, the mean body mass index increased by 2.1 and 1.6 kg/m² in males and females, respectively (P for trend  < 0.001 in both sexes). The mean diastolic blood pressure decreased by 3.6 mmHg in males and by 2.9 mmHg in females (P  < 0.001 in both sexes). The mean systolic blood pressure increased by 1.6 mmHg in males and decreased by 1.9 mmHg in females. These trends were also consistent when blood pressure values were adjusted to body mass index.

Conclusion

Despite the increase in body mass index over the last four decades, diastolic blood pressure decreased in both sexes while systolic blood pressure increased slightly in males and decreased in females.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01433-0.

Adolescent body mass index and changes in pre-pregnancy body mass index in relation to risk of gestational diabetes

BACKGROUND

Pregestational excessive body mass index (BMI) is linked to an increased risk for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), but less is known on the effect of adolescent BMI on GDM occurrence. The study aimed to investigate possible associations of adolescent BMI and changes in BMI experienced before first pregnancy, with gestational diabetes risk.

METHODS

This retrospective study was based on linkage of a military screening database of adolescent health status (Israel Defence Forces) including measured height and weight, with medical records (Maccabi Healthcare Services, MHS) of a state-mandated health provider. The latter covers about 25% of the Israeli population; about 90% of pregnant women undergo screening by the two-step Carpenter-Coustan method. Adolescent BMI was categorized according to Center of Disease Control and Prevention percentiles. Only first documented pregnanies were analyzed and GDM was the outcome.

FINDINGS

Of 190,905 nulliparous women, 10,265 (5.4%) developed GDM. Incidence proportions of GDM were 5.1%, 6.1%, 7.3%, and 8.9% among women with adolescent normal BMI, underweight, overweight, and obesity (p<0.001), respectively. In models that accounted for age at pregnancy, birth year, and sociodemographic variables, the adjusted odd ratios (aORs) for developing GDM were: 1.2 (95%CI, 1.1-1.3), 1.5 (1.4-1.6), and 1.9 (1.7-2.1) for adolescent underweight, overweight, and obesity (reference group, normal BMI). Adolescent BMI tracked with BMI notes in the pre-pregnancy period (r=63%). Resuming normal pre-pregnancy BMI from overweight or obesity in adolescence diminished GDM risk, but this diminished risk was not observed among those who returned to a normal per-pre-pregnancy BMI from being underweight in adolescence. Sustained overweight or obesity conferred an aOR for developing GDM of 2.5 (2.2-2.7); weight gain from adolescent underweight and normal BMI to pre-pregnancy excessive BMI conferred aORs of 3.1 (1.6-6.2) and 2.6 (2.2-2.7), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Change in BMI status from adolescence to pre-pregnancy may contribute to GDM risk. Identifying at-risk populations is important for early preventive interventions.

FUNDING

None.

Asthma in Youth and Early-onset Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Study of 1.72 Million Israeli Adolescents

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of both asthma and early-onset diabetes is on the rise; however, the association between them remains unclear. We examined a possible association of asthma at adolescence with type 2 diabetes in young adulthood.

METHODS

This is a nationwide, population-based study of 1 718 541 Israeli adolescents (57% males; mean age 17.3 years; range 16-19 years), examined before compulsory military service between 1992 and 2016, with data linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. Asthma diagnosis and severity were determined by a board-certified pulmonologist and based on spirometry tests.

RESULTS

Type 2 diabetes developed in 58/9090 (0.64%), 507/97 059 (0.52%), 114/23 332 (0.49%), and 7095/1 589 060 (0.44%) persons with moderate-to-severe, mild, inactive, and no history of asthma, respectively, during a mean follow-up >13 years. The respective odds ratios (ORs) were 1.33 (95% CI, 1.02-1.74), 1.17 (1.06-1.28), and 1.09 (0.9-1.31), considering those without asthma history as the reference, in a model adjusted for birth year, sex, body mass index, and other sociodemographic variables. The association persisted when the analysis accounted for coexisting morbidities, and when persons without asthma, individually matched by age, sex, birth year, and body mass index were the reference. Both mild and moderate-to-severe asthma were associated with type 2 diabetes before age 35 years: ORs 1.18 (1.05-1.34) and 1.44 (1.05-2.00), respectively. The strength of the association was accentuated over time. The effect was unchanged when adjusted for oral and inhaled glucocorticoid use.

CONCLUSION

Adolescents with active asthma have higher risk to develop type 2 diabetes. This seems related to disease severity, independent of adolescent obesity status, apparent before age 35 years, and more pronounced in recent years.

Adolescent cognitive function and incident early-onset type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Cognitive function among apparently healthy adolescents has been associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We examined the relationship between global and subdomain cognitive scores in adolescence and early-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) in men and women.

METHODS

A nationwide, population-based study of 971,677 Israeli born adolescents (56% men; mean age 17.4 years) who were medically examined and their cognitive performance was assessed before compulsory military service during 1992-2010. Data included global and subdomain cognitive Z-scores (problem-solving, verbal abstraction and categorization, verbal comprehension, and mathematical abilities). Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. The relations between global and subdomain scores and incident T2D was determined using Cox proportional hazard models and logistic regression models. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women.

FINDINGS

During 16,095,122 person-years, 3,570 individuals developed T2D. After adjustment, those in the low compared to the high quintile of global cognitive Z-score had the highest risk for T2D; HR 2.46, (95% CI 2.10-2.88) for men and 2.33 (95% CI 1.88-2.89) for women. A one-unit lower global cognitive Z-score was associated with 1.41 (95% CI 1.34-1.48) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.36-1.56) increased risks for men and women, respectively. The relationship was noted for the cognitive subdomains scores as well as for the global cognitive score, with no heterogeneity across cognitive subdomains.

INTERPRETATION

This large nationally representative cohort suggests relationship between global, as well as subdomain cognitive scores in late adolescence, and incident early onset T2D in both sexes, which was independent of socioeconomic status.

Adolescent Thyroid Disorders and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in Young Adulthood

CONTEXT

Thyroid hormones play a key role in systemic metabolism, yet the relationship between thyroid dysfunction and risk for type 2 diabetes is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess type 2 diabetes risk in adulthood among adolescents with thyroid disorders.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A nationwide, population-based study of Israeli adolescents who were examined before military recruitment during 1988 to 2007 and were followed until December 31, 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

1 382 560 adolescents (mean age 17.3 years).

INTERVENTIONS

The diagnosis of thyroid disorders was based on recent thyroid function tests. Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. Cox proportional hazard models were applied.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Type 2 diabetes incidence.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 18.5 years, 1.12% (69 of 6,152) of adolescents with thyroid disorders were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes vs 0.77% of adolescents without thyroid disorders. The hazard ratio (HR) for type 2 diabetes was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.8-2.9) among those with thyroid disorders, after adjustment for sex, birth-year, body mass index, and sociodemographic confounders. The increased diabetes risk was observed in both men and women, with the presence or absence of obesity, and in the absence of other health conditions and was associated with different types of thyroid disorders. It was also similar when the outcome was defined as type 2 diabetes diagnosed at or before the age of 30 years (HR 2.3, 95% CI, 1.5-3.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid disorders diagnosed in adolescence are a risk factor for early-onset type 2 diabetes in both men and women.

Body Mass Index in 1.9 Million Adolescents and Stroke in Young Adulthood

[Figure: see text].

Stuttering and Incident Type 2 Diabetes: A Population-Based Study of 2.2 Million Adolescents

PURPOSE

To investigate the association between stuttering in adolescence and incident type 2 diabetes in young adulthood.

METHODS

This nationwide population-based study included 2 193 855 adolescents of age 16 to 20 years who were assessed for military service between 1980 and 2013. Diagnoses of stuttering in adolescence were confirmed by a speech-language pathologist. Diabetes status for each individual as of December 31, 2016, was determined by linkage to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. Relationships were analyzed using regression models adjusted for socioeconomic variables, cognitive performance, coexisting morbidities, and adolescent body mass index.

RESULTS

Analysis was stratified by sex (Pinteraction = 0.035). Of the 4443 (0.4%) adolescent men with stuttering, 162 (3.7%) developed type 2 diabetes, compared with 25 678 (2.1%) men without stuttering (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6). This relationship persisted when unaffected brothers of men with stuttering were used as the reference group (adjusted OR = 1.5; 95% CI, 1.01-2.2), or when the analysis included only adolescents with unimpaired health at baseline (adjusted OR = 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). The association was stronger in later birth cohorts, with an adjusted OR of 2.4 (1.4-4.1) for cases of type 2 diabetes before age 40. Of the 503 (0.1%) adolescent women with stuttering 7 (1.4%) developed type 2 diabetes, compared with 10 139 (1.1%) women without stuttering (OR = 2.03; 95% CI, 0.48-2.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescent stuttering is associated with an increased risk for early-onset type 2 diabetes among men.

Childhood Cancer and the Risk of ESKD

BACKGROUND

Increasing cancer incidence among children alongside improved treatments has resulted in a growing number of pediatric cancer survivors. Despite childhood cancer survivors' exposure to various factors that compromise kidney function, few studies have investigated the association between childhood cancer and future kidney disease.

METHODS

To assess the risk of ESKD among childhood cancer survivors, we conducted a nationwide, population-based, retrospective cohort study that encompassed all Israeli adolescents evaluated for mandatory military service from 1967 to 1997. After obtaining detailed histories, we divided the cohort into three groups: participants without a history of tumors, those with a history of a benign tumor (nonmalignant tumor with functional impairment), and those with a history of malignancy (excluding kidney cancer). This database was linked to the Israeli ESKD registry to identify incident ESKD cases. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of ESKD.

RESULTS

Of the 1,468,600 participants in the cohort, 1,444,345 had no history of tumors, 23,282 had a history of a benign tumor, and 973 had a history of malignancy. During a mean follow-up of 30.3 years, 2416 (0.2%) participants without a history of tumors developed ESKD. Although a history of benign tumors was not associated with an increased ESKD risk, participants with a history of malignancy exhibited a substantially elevated risk for ESKD compared with participants lacking a history of tumors, after controlling for age, sex, enrollment period, and paternal origin (adjusted HR, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 7.7).

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood cancer is associated with an increased risk for ESKD, suggesting the need for tighter and longer nephrological follow-up.

Congenital Anomalies of the Kidney and Urinary Tract and Adulthood risk of Urinary Tract Cancer

Introduction

Congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) are the most common kidney diseases in childhood. Alterations in genes governing nephrogenesis may cause CAKUT, and in some cases may contribute to development of urinary tract (UT) tumors later in life. We aimed to assess the association between CAKUT and UT cancer in adulthood.

Methods

We conducted a population-based historical cohort study encompassing 1,510,042 recruits to the Israeli army between 1967 and 1997. CAKUT exposure was determined by army medical coding of CAKUT in childhood. Incidence of UT cancer (kidney, ureter, or bladder) was available through record linkage with the Israeli Cancer Registry. Recruits were followed from the prerecruitment assessment until cancer diagnosis, death, or study termination, in 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for UT cancer in participants with vs. without CAKUT.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 30.4 years, 2959 participants (2573 men and 386 women) developed UT cancer. Men with CAKUT exhibited an increased risk of UT cancer compared with men without CAKUT, yielding an adjusted HR of 1.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-3.82). Among women CAKUT was associated with a HR of 5.88 (95% CI 2.19-15.76). Notably, upon stratification according to age of cancer diagnosis, the association between CAKUT and UT cancer was statistically significant only before 45 years of age in women and only after 45 years of age in men.

Conclusion

CAKUT is associated with a significantly increased risk of UT cancer, although the incidence and absolute risk remained quite low.

Adolescent Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Type 2 Diabetes in Young Adulthood

CONTEXT

The long-term risk of type 2 diabetes in adolescents with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess type 2 diabetes risk among adolescents with NAFLD.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A nationwide, population-based study of Israeli adolescents who were examined before military service during 1997-2011 and were followed until December 31, 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1 025 796 normoglycemic adolescents were included.

INTERVENTIONS

Biopsy or radiographic tests were prerequisite for NAFLD diagnosis. Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Type 2 diabetes incidence.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 13.3 years, 12 of 633 adolescents with NAFLD (1.9%; all with high body mass index [BMI] at baseline) were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes compared with 2917 (0.3%) adolescents without NAFLD. The hazard ratio (HR) for type 2 diabetes was 2.59 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47-4.58) for the NAFLD vs. the non-NAFLD group after adjustment for BMI and sociodemographic confounders. The elevated risk persisted in several sensitivity analyses. These included an analysis of persons without other metabolic comorbidities (adjusted HR, 2.75 [95% CI, 1.48-5.14]) and of persons with high BMI; and an analysis whose outcome was type 2 diabetes by age 30 years (adjusted HR, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.02-4.52]). The results remained significant when a sex-, birth year-, and BMI-matched control group was the reference (adjusted HR, 2.98 [95% CI, 1.54-5.74]).

CONCLUSIONS

Among normoglycemic adolescents, NAFLD was associated with an increased adjusted risk for type 2 diabetes, which may be apparent before age 30 years.

Socioeconomic inequalities and severe obesity-Sex differences in a nationwide study of 1.12 million Israeli adolescents

INTRODUCTION

In a nationwide population of adolescents, we investigated the sex-specific association of socioeconomic position (SEP) with severe obesity, and trends over time.

METHODS

The cohort comprises all Israeli adolescents (mean ± SD age 17.3 ± 0.5 years) who were medically examined, before mandatory military service during 2000 to 2015. Of 1 120 362 adolescents, 239 816 (21.4%) were classified with overweight or with obesity classes I to III using the International Obesity Task Force criteria. Data were compared between 2000 to 2009 and 2010 to 2015.

RESULTS

Considering more advantaged residential SEP as the reference group, the respective odds ratios (ORs ± 95%CI) of less advantaged SEP for obesity classes I to III in 2010 to 2015 were 1.48 (1.40-1.56), 1.66 (1.51-1.83), and 1.73 (1.45-2.08) for males; and 1.72 (1.60-1.84), 1.89 (1.66-2.15), and 2.62 (2.04-3.37) for females. All point estimates were higher than in the preceding decade. Considering female inductees from the more advantaged SEP as the reference group, ORs were higher for males in the more advantaged SEP group, for overweight, 1.31 (1.27-1.36); class I obesity, 1.29 (1.20-1.38); class II obesity, 1.34 (1.18-1.53); and class III obesity, 1.60 (1.24-2.07). Similarly, in the less and medium advantaged SEP groups, increased ORs for males compared with females were observed in all obesity groups. Results persisted using United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth charts.

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescents with less rather than more advantaged residential SEP are at greater risk of severe obesity. Adolescent males, of all residential SEP groups had higher odds than females for all classes of obesity.

The association between late-adolescent smoking and long-term mortality: a dose-response relationship

Introduction

Tobacco smoking has detrimental medical effects. However, whether late-adolescence tobacco smoking increases early mortality risk is unclear. The aim of our study was to determine the association between tobacco smoking among Israeli adolescents and mortality in young adulthood.

Methods

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) health survey enrolls annually random sample of 3–5% of IDF recruits who voluntarily report lifestyle and tobacco consumption habits (up to 10 cigarettes a day were defined as light smokers, 10–20 cigarettes a day and above 20 cigarettes a day as medium and heavy smokers respectively). Medical and sociodemographic variables (education, residential socioeconomic status, country of birth or origin) were included. Included in this study were 62,134 soldiers (56% men; average age 17.3 years) who enrolled in the study between 1981 and 2006. Data from the Israeli Ministry of Interior was obtained by linkage. Follow-up terminated at the earliest of December 31st 2018 or death. Cox proportional hazard models were applied.

Results

There were 42,013 (67.6%) never smokers, 2,108 (3.4%) past smokers, 6,886 (11.1%) light, 9,880 (15.9%) medium and 1,247 (2%) heavy smokers. During 1,348,517 person-years, 548 deaths were recorded (327 were never smokers, and 18,54,121 and 28 were past, light, medium and heavy smokers, respectively; mean age 31.3 years). The hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 0.98 (0.61–1.58), 1.02 (0.76–1.36), 1.32 (1.06–1.64) and 1.53 (1.03–2.30) for past smokers, light, medium and heavy smokers, respectively, after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, enrollment year, education and intelligence score. There was no sex-specific association and mortality risk among heavy smokers persisted even when the outcome was set as death by the age of 30 years.

Conclusion

Late-adolescent smoking is associated with long-term all-cause mortality. A dose-response relationship was demonstrated between number of cigarettes consumed at the age of 17 and the future risk of death.

Kaplan-Meier Plot

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Adolescent BMI and early-onset type 2 diabetes among Ethiopian immigrants and their descendants: a nationwide study

Background

We assessed in a nationwide cohort the association between adolescent BMI and early-onset (< 40 years) type 2 diabetes among Israelis of Ethiopian origin.

Methods

Normoglycemic adolescents (range 16–20 years old), including 93,806 native Israelis (≥ 3rd generation in Israel) and 27,684 Israelis of Ethiopian origin, were medically assessed for military service between 1996 and 2011. Weight and height were measured. Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. Incident type 2 diabetes by December 31, 2016 was the outcome. Cox regression models stratified by sex and BMI categories were applied.

Results

226 (0.29%) men and 79 (0.18%) women developed diabetes during 992,980 and 530,814 person-years follow-up, respectively, at a mean age of 30.4 and 27.4 years, respectively. Among native Israeli men with normal and high (overweight and obese) BMI, diabetes incidence was 9.5 and 62.0 (per 10⁵ person-years), respectively. The respective incidences were 46.9 and 112.3 among men of Ethiopian origin. After adjustment for sociodemographic confounders, the hazard ratios for type 2 diabetes among Ethiopian men with normal and high BMI were 3.4 (2.3–5.1) and 15.8 (8.3–30.3) respectively, compared to third-generation Israelis with normal BMI. When this analysis was limited to Israeli-born Ethiopian men, the hazard ratios were 4.4 (1.7–11.4) and 29.1 (12.9–70.6), respectively. Results persisted when immigrants of other white Caucasian origin were the reference; and among women with normal, but not high, BMI.

Conclusions

Ethiopian origin is a risk factor for early-onset type 2 diabetes among young men at any BMI, and may require selective interventions.

Acute pyelonephritis in children and the risk of end-stage kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Pyelonephritis is the most common serious bacterial infection during childhood. The long-term importance of kidney scarring is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in adolescents and young adults with history of pyelonephritis.

STUDY DESIGN

A nationwide, population-based, historical cohort study, including 1,509,902 persons (62% male) examined for military service between 1967 and 1997. Participants with a history of pyelonephritis were sub-grouped according to presence of kidney scarring and baseline kidney function. Data were linked to the Israeli ESKD registry to identify incident ESKD cases. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of treated ESKD (dialysis or kidney transplant).

RESULTS

Pyelonephritis was diagnosed in 6979 participants (0.46%). 6479 had normal kidney function and no evidence of kidney scarring, 400 had normal kidney function with evidence of scarring, and 100 demonstrated reduced baseline kidney function. Treated ESKD developed in 2352 individuals (0.2%) without history of pyelonephritis, 58 individuals (0.9%) with normal kidney function, history of pyelonephritis and no kidney scarring, 14 individuals (3.5%) with normal kidney function, history of pyelonephritis and kidney scarring, and 23 individuals (23.0%) with history of pyelonephritis and reduced baseline kidney function, yielding HR of 3.3, 34.8 and 43.2, respectively, controlling for age, gender, paternal origin, enrollment year, body mass index, and blood pressure, and accounting for death as a competing risk.

CONCLUSION

History of pyelonephritis was associated with significantly increased risk of treated ESKD, particularly when associated with kidney scarring or reduced baseline kidney function.

Adolescent Obesity and Early-Onset Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasingly diagnosed at younger ages. We investigated the association of adolescent obesity with incident T2D at early adulthood.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A nationwide, population-based study evaluated 1,462,362 adolescents (59% men, mean age 17.4 years) during 1996-2016. Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. Weight and height were measured at study entry. Cox proportional models were applied.

RESULTS

During 15,810,751 person-years, 2,177 people (69% men) developed T2D (mean age at diagnosis 27 years). There was an interaction among BMI, sex, and incident T2D (P _interaction = 0.023). In a model adjusted for sociodemographic variables, the hazard ratios for diabetes diagnosis were 1.7 (95% CI 1.4-2.0), 2.8 (2.3-3.5), 5.8 (4.9-6.9), 13.4 (11.5-15.7), and 25.8 (21.0-31.6) among men in the 50th-74th percentile, 75th-84th percentile, overweight, mild obesity, and severe obesity groups, respectively, and 2.2 (1.6-2.9), 3.4 (2.5-4.6), 10.6 (8.3-13.6), 21.1 (16.0-27.8), and 44.7 (32.4-61.5), respectively, in women. An inverse graded relationship was observed between baseline BMI and mean age of T2D diagnosis: 27.8 and 25.9 years among men and women with severe obesity, respectively, and 29.5 and 28.5 years among low-normal BMI (5th-49th percentile; reference), respectively. The projected fractions of adult-onset T2D that were attributed to high BMI (≥85th percentile) at adolescence were 56.9% (53.8-59.9%) and 61.1% (56.8-65.2%) in men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe obesity significantly increases the risk for incidence of T2D in early adulthood in both sexes. The rise in adolescent severe obesity is likely to increase diabetes incidence in young adults in coming decades.

Does birth season influence the odds for asthma? Large cohort analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Few studies have examined the possibility of a link between birth season and the risk for asthma. Those studies that mainly focused on young children, reached different conclusions regarding both the existence of such a link and the season with the highest risk. The purpose of this study was to reinvestigate the relationship between birth season and asthma in a very large cohort, larger than in all previous studies, focusing on adolescents.

METHODS

The medical records of consecutive 17-year-old conscripts, born between 1978 and 1999, undergoing medical evaluation before their military service, were reviewed. The prevalence of asthma among conscripts was calculated according to the season of birth.

RESULTS

Data from 6 26 460 males and 4 54 104 females were collected. Asthma prevalence was 6.6% of the males and 5.8% of the females. Asthma prevalence was highest among those born in the summer and was approximately 9% higher in women and 6% higher in men than those born in the winter. Those born in the winter had the lowest prevalence of asthma. June was the birth month with the highest prevalence of asthma in both genders together with September among males.

CONCLUSIONS

Being born in the summer, especially in June, is associated with an increased risk of asthma compared with a winter birth among Israeli army conscripts. Further research is required to determine the impact of the season of birth on the risk of asthma in higher risk populations.

Adolescent obesity and midlife cancer risk: a population-based cohort study of 2·3 million adolescents in Israel

BACKGROUND

Obesity has been established as a causal factor for several types of cancer, and adolescent obesity is increasing worldwide. We examined associations between measured body-mass index (BMI) at age 17 years and cancer incidence, and with mortality among those who developed cancer.

METHODS

In a nationwide, population-based cohort of adolescents, height and weight were measured at pre-recruitment mandatory medical examination during 1967-2010. BMI was classified according to US Center for Disease Control and Prevention percentiles. We applied Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident cases of cancer using the 5th-49th BMI percentile group as a reference. The primary outcome was any cancer diagnosis between Jan 1, 1967, and Dec 31, 2012, as recorded in the Israeli National Cancer Registry. Participants with a diagnosis of cancer at baseline (before military recruitment assessment) were excluded from this analysis. The secondary outcome of this study was all-cause mortality among cohort members who had cancer, between Jan 1, 1967, and Dec 31, 2017.

FINDINGS

Of the 2 458 170 participants examined between Jan 1, 1967, and Dec 31, 2010, 160 040 were excluded. 2 298 130 participants of which 928 110 were women and 1 370 020 were men. During 29 542 735 person-years of follow-up in men, 26 353 incident cases of cancer were recorded and in 18 044 863 person-years of follow-up in women, 29 488 incident cases of cancer were recorded. Cancer incidence increased gradually across BMI percentiles. The adjusted HR was 1·26 (95% CI 1·18-1·35) among men with adolescent obesity. Among women, we found no association between obesity and overall cancer, driven by inverse associations of obesity with cervical and breast cancers. When these cancers were excluded, the adjusted HR for cancer was 1·27 (1·13-1·44) among women with adolescent obesity. In both sexes, high BMI (≥85th percentile) was associated with an increased cancer risk after 10 years. This association was accentuated in the late period of the cohort versus the early period of the cohort. BMI was positively associated with a higher risk of mortality. The projected population attributable risk for high BMI was 5·1% (4·2-6·1) for men and 5·7% (4·2-7·3) for women.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing prevalence of adolescent obesity and the possible association between adolescent BMI and cancer incidence might increase the future burden of obesity-related cancers. BMI among adolescents could constitute an important intervention target for cancer prevention.

FUNDING

None.

Childhood Pancreatitis and Risk for Incident Diabetes in Adulthood

OBJECTIVE

The relationship between acute pancreatitis and incident diabetes is unclear. We assessed whether a resolved single event of acute pancreatitis in childhood was associated with incident diabetes in adulthood.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A nationwide, population-based study of 1,802,110 Israeli adolescents (mean age 17.4 years [range 16-20]) who were examined before compulsory military service between 1979 and 2008 and whose data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry (INDR). Resolved pancreatitis was defined as a history of a single event of acute pancreatitis with normal pancreatic function at enrollment. Logistic regression analysis was applied.

RESULTS

Incident diabetes developed in 4.6% of subjects with resolved pancreatitis (13 of 281; none of these cases were identified as type 1 diabetes) and 2.5% among the unexposed group (44,463 of 1,801,716). Resolved acute pancreatitis was associated with incident diabetes with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.23 (95% CI 1.25-3.98) with adjustment for age, sex, and birth year. Findings persisted after further adjustments for baseline BMI and sociodemographic confounders (OR 2.10 [95% CI 1.15-3.84]). Childhood pancreatitis was associated with a diagnosis of diabetes at a younger age, with 92% of diabetes case subjects diagnosed before 40 years of age compared with 47% in the unexposed group (P = 0.002). The association accentuated when the study sample was limited to individuals of unimpaired health or normal BMI at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

A history of acute pancreatitis in childhood with normal pancreatic function in late adolescence is a risk factor for incident type 2 diabetes, especially at young adulthood.

Impact of Immigration on Body Mass Index and Blood Pressure Among Adolescent Males and Females: A Nationwide Study

Immigration from one cultural milieu to another has been associated with a greater risk for incident cardio-metabolic morbidity among adults. In this nationwide, population-based, cross-sectional study of data recorded from 1992 to 2016, we assessed the association between body mass index and blood pressure levels among adolescent immigrants, aged 16 to 19 years, of Ethiopian origin, and their secular trend of overweight and obesity. Adolescents of Ethiopian origin were classified as Israeli-born (n=16 153) or immigrants (N=23 487), with stratification by age at immigration. Adolescents whose fathers were at least 3 generations in Israel (n=277 789) served as a comparative group. Hypertensive-range blood pressure values adjusted for age, sex, and height served as outcome. Among adolescents of Ethiopian origin, overweight and obesity (body mass index ≥85th percentile), increased by 2.5 and 4-fold in males and females, respectively, during the study period, compared with a 1.5-fold increase among native Israeli-born males and females. The odds for hypertensive-range measurements increased with the length of residence in Israel: 7.3%, 10.6%, and 14.4% among males who immigrated at ages 12 to 19, 6 to 11.9, and 0 to 5.9 years, respectively; and 11.5%, 16.7%, and 19.3%, respectively, among females. Israeli-born Ethiopians had a significantly higher risk for hypertensive-range measurements at any body mass index level compared with native Israeli-born examinees, after adjusting for sociodemographic factors and health status. In conclusion, among Ethiopian Israeli adolescents, abnormal blood pressure correlates directly with the time-lapse since immigration. Immigrant populations require targeted surveillance and appropriate intervention.

Coronal Knee Malalignment in Young Adults and Its Link to Body Measures

Our aim was to report the prevalence of knee varus-valgus malalignment (KVVM) and its association with body mass index (BMI) and body height in a healthy and fit young adult population. Information on the disability codes associated with KVVM according to the Regulations of Medical Fitness Determination was retrieved from a medical database containing records of 17-year-old males and females before their recruitment into mandatory military service. Logistic regression models assessed the association between the BMI and body height to KVVM. The study cohort included 821,381 subjects (460,674 males and 360,707 females). The prevalence of KVVM was 0.9% in males and 0.6% for females. Under/overweight subjects were associated with higher prevalence of KVVM. The odds ratios (ORs) had a "J" curve pattern, increasing for underweight males and females, and even more so for above-normal BMIs (for obese males and for both overweight and obese females). The strongest association was between obese females and KVVM: an obese female had an OR of 22.864 (confidence interval [CI] = 20.683-25.725, p < 0.001) to have KVVM and an obese male had an OR of 4.483 (CI = 4.158-4.833 p < 0.001). When the BMI was analyzed as a continuous variable, each increase in one BMI unit was associated with an increase in OR of 7.6% for males and 24.1% for females. There is a strong association between BMI and KVVM in both underweight and overweight young adults. KVVM is more common in males, but most strongly associated with overweight and obese females.This is a Level III, case-control study.