Comparison of climatic factors on mosquito abundance at US Army Garrison Humphreys, Republic of Korea

Introduction

A number of studies have been conducted on the relationship between the distribution of mosquito abundance and meteorological variables. However, few studies have specifically provided specific ranges of temperatures for estimating the maximum abundance of mosquitoes as an empirical basis for climatic dynamics for estimating mosquito-borne infectious disease risks.

Methods

Adult mosquitoes were collected for three consecutive nights/week using Mosquito Magnet® Independence® model traps during 2018 and 2019 at US Army Garrison (USAG) Humphreys, Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Republic of Korea (ROK). An estimate of daily mean temperatures (provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration) were distributed at the maximum abundance for selected species of mosquitoes using daily mosquito collection data after controlling for mosquito ecological cycles and environmental factors.

Results

Using the Monte-Carlo simulation, the overall mosquito population abundance peaked at 22.7°C (2.5^th—97.5^th: 21.7°C–23.8°C). Aedes albopictus, vector of Zika, chikungunya, dengue fever and other viruses, abundance peaked at 24.6°C (2.5^th–97.5^th, 22.3°C–25.6°C), while Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) vectors, e.g., Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Culex pipiens, peaked at 24.3°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.9°C–26.3°C) and 22.6°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.9°C–25.2°C), respectively. Members of the Anopheles Hyrcanus Group, some of which are vivax malaria vectors in the ROK, abundance peaked at 22.4°C (2.5^th–97.5^th: 21.5°C–23.8°C).

Conclusion

The empirical mean temperature ranges for maximum abundance were determined for each mosquito species collected at USAG Humphreys. These data contributed to the identification of relative mosquito abundance patterns for estimating mosquito-borne disease risks and developing and implementing disease prevention practices.

Nonlinear temperature-suicide association in Japan from 1972 to 2015: Its heterogeneity and the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors

It has been reported that suicide is associated with ambient temperature; however, the heterogeneity in this association and its underlying factors have not been extensively investigated. Therefore, we investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the temperature-suicide association and examined climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors that may underlie such heterogeneity. We analyzed the daily time-series data for the suicide counts and ambient temperature, which were collected for the 47 prefectures of Japan from 1972 to 2015, using a two-stage analysis. In the first stage, the prefecture-specific temperature-suicide association was estimated by using a generalized linear model. In the second stage, the prefecture-specific associations were pooled, and key factors explaining the spatial and temporal variation were identified by using mixed effects meta-regression. Results showed that there is an inverted J-shape nonlinear association between temperature and suicide; the suicide risk increased with temperature but leveled off above 24.4 °C. The nationwide relative risk (RR) for the maximum suicide temperature versus 5th temperature percentile (2.9 °C) was estimated as 1.26 (95% CI: 1.22, 1.29). The RRs were larger for females than for males (1.32 vs. 1.22) and larger for elderly people (≥65 y) than for the non-elderly (15-64 y) (1.51 vs. 1.18). The RRs were larger for rural prefectures, which are characterized by smaller population, higher proportions of females and elderly people, and lower levels of financial capability and the proportion of highly educated people. The RRs were also larger in colder and less humid prefectures. These findings may help in understanding the potential mechanism of the temperature-suicide association and projecting the future risk of suicide under climate change.

Temporal Trend of Aedes albopictus in Local Urban Parks of the Republic of Korea

Aedes albopictus (Skuse) was first reported in the Republic of Korea in 1941 (Suwon, Gyeonggi Province). Recently, a mosquito-monitoring program was established in response to the potential development of autochthonous infections of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, to identify the regional characteristics of Ae. albopictus in Suwon. Daily collections of adult mosquitoes were conducted using Blackhole UV-LED traps and BG-Sentinel traps baited with octenol, carbon dioxide or both at five sites in Suwon (Sungkyunkwan University, Manseok, Seoho, Olympic, and Jungang parks) from 1 July to 1 November 2016. Based on the ecological cycle of mosquitoes, an estimated association between the daily mean temperatures [2 wk prior to the collection date (lag 2 wk)] and relative population abundance were developed using a generalized linear model. The overall proportion of female mosquitoes collected from all traps was 88.3%. Higher female trap indices were observed for mosquitoes collected at BG-Sentinel traps. Additionally, the BG-sentinel trap was more effective collecting Ae. albopictus. Culex pipiens (Coquillett) was the most frequently collected mosquito using UV-LED traps, followed by Ae. vexans nipponii (Theobald), Ochlerotatus koreicus (Edwards), Cx. inatomi (Kamimura and Wada), and members of the Anopheles Hyrcanus Group. Within a certain temperature range, daily mean temperatures 2 wk prior to the collection period was significantly associated with a maximum abundance of Ae. albopictus (P < 0.05) at 26.2°C (95% confidence interval: 24.3-29.4°C). The BG-Sentinel trap is an effective trap for monitoring relative population abundance of Ae. albopictus, and trap catches are significantly correlated with daily mean temperatures.

Health Effects of Asian Dust: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Potential adverse health effects of Asian dust exposure have been reported, but systematic reviews and quantitative syntheses are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

We reviewed epidemiologic studies that assessed the risk of mortality, hospital admissions, and symptoms/dysfunction associated with exposure to Asian dust.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of PubMed and Web of Science to identify studies that reported the association between Asian dust exposure and human health outcomes. We conducted separate meta-analyses using a random-effects model for mortality and hospital admissions for a specific health outcome and assessed pooled estimates for each lag when at least three studies were available for a specific lag.

RESULTS

We identified 89 studies that met our inclusion criteria for the systematic review, and 21 studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimates (percentage changes) of mortality from circulatory and respiratory causes for Asian dust days vs. non-Asian dust days were 2.33% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76, 3.93] increase at lag 0 and 3.99% (95% CI: 0.08, 8.06) increase at lag 3, respectively. The increased risk for hospital admissions for respiratory disease, asthma, and pneumonia peaked at lag 3 by 8.85% (95% CI: 0.80, 17.55), 14.55% (95% CI: 6.74, 22.94), and 8.51% (95% CI: 2.89, 14.44), respectively. Seven of 12 studies reported reduced peak expiratory flow, and 16 of 21 studies reported increased respiratory symptoms associated with Asian dust exposure. There were substantial variations between the studies in definitions of Asian dust, study designs, model specifications, and confounder controls.

DISCUSSION

We found evidence of increased mortality and hospital admissions for circulatory and respiratory events. However, the number of studies included in the meta-analysis was not large and further evidences are merited to strengthen our conclusions. Standardized protocols for epidemiological studies would facilitate interstudy comparisons. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5312.

Malaria predictions based on seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa: A time series distributed lag nonlinear model

Although there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r > 0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r > 0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive example for other malaria-endemic areas.

Highlights of the updated Dutch evidence- and consensus-based guideline on psoriasis 2017

Linked Comment: https://doi.org/10.1111/bjd.17390.

Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study

BACKGROUND

Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.

METHODS

We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.

RESULTS

A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.

Poor agreement between the automated risk assessment of a smartphone application for skin cancer detection and the rating by dermatologists

Background

Several smartphone applications (app) with an automated risk assessment claim to be able to detect skin cancer at an early stage. Various studies that have evaluated these apps showed mainly poor performance. However, all studies were done in patients and lesions were mainly selected by a specialist.

Objectives

To investigate the performance of the automated risk assessment of an app by comparing its assessment to that of a dermatologist in lesions selected by the participants.

Methods

Participants of a National Skin Cancer Day were enrolled in a multicentre study. Skin lesions indicated by the participants were analysed by the automated risk assessment of the app prior to blinded rating by the dermatologist. The ratings of the automated risk assessment were compared to the assessment and diagnosis of the dermatologist. Due to the setting of the Skin Cancer Day, lesions were not verified by histopathology.

Results

We included 125 participants (199 lesions). The app was not able to analyse 90 cases (45%) of which nine BCC, four atypical naevi and one lentigo maligna. Thirty lesions (67%) with a high and 21 with a medium risk (70%) rating by the app were diagnosed as benign naevi or seborrhoeic keratoses. The interobserver agreement between the ratings of the automated risk assessment and the dermatologist was poor (weighted kappa = 0.02; 95% CI −0.08‐0.12; P = 0.74).

Conclusions

The rating of the automated risk assessment was poor. Further investigations about the diagnostic accuracy in real‐life situations are needed to provide consumers with reliable information about this healthcare application.

Associations of chemical composition and sources of PM2.5 with lung function of severe asthmatic adults in a low air pollution environment of urban Nagasaki, Japan

Previous studies have linked ambient PM_2.5 to decreased pulmonary function, but the influence of specific chemical elements and emission sources on the severe asthmatic is not well understood. We examined the mass, chemical constituents, and sources of PM_2.5 for short-term associations with the pulmonary function of adults with severe asthma in a low air pollution environment in urban Nagasaki, Japan. We recruited 35 asthmatic adults and obtained the daily record of morning peak expiratory flow (PEF) in spring 2014-2016. PM_2.5 filters were extracted from an air quality monitoring station (178 days) and measured for 27 chemical elements. Source apportionment was performed using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF). We fitted generalized linear model with generalized estimating equation (GEE) method to estimate changes in PEF (from personal monthly maximum) and odds of severe respiratory deterioration (first ≥ 15% PEF reduction within a 1-week interval) associated with mass, constituents, and sources of PM_2.5, with adjustment for temperature and relative humidity. Constituent sulfate (SO₄^2-) and PM_2.5 from oil combustion and traffic were associated with reduced PEF. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in SO₄^2- (3.7 μg/m³, average lags 0-1) was associated with a decrease of 0.38% (95% confidence interval = -0.75% to -0.001%). An IQR increase in oil combustion and traffic-sourced PM_2.5 (2.64 μg/m³, lag 1) was associated with a decrease of 0.33% (-0.62% to -0.002%). We found a larger PEF decrease associated with PM_2.5 from dust/soil on Asian Dust days. There was no evidence linking total mass and metals to reduced pulmonary function. The ventilatory capacity of adults with severe asthma is susceptible to specific constituents/sources of PM_2.5 such as sulfate and oil combustion and traffic despite active self-management of asthma and low air pollution levels in the study location.

Early Correction of N-Methyl-D-Aspartate Receptor Function Improves Autistic-like Social Behaviors in Adult Shank2-/- Mice

BACKGROUND

Autism spectrum disorder involves neurodevelopmental dysregulations that lead to visible symptoms at early stages of life. Many autism spectrum disorder-related mechanisms suggested by animal studies are supported by demonstrated improvement in autistic-like phenotypes in adult animals following experimental reversal of dysregulated mechanisms. However, whether such mechanisms also act at earlier stages to cause autistic-like phenotypes is unclear.

METHODS

We used Shank2^-/- mice carrying a mutation identified in human autism spectrum disorder (exons 6 and 7 deletion) and combined electrophysiological and behavioral analyses to see whether early pathophysiology at pup stages is different from late pathophysiology at juvenile and adult stages and whether correcting early pathophysiology can normalize late pathophysiology and abnormal behaviors in juvenile and adult mice.

RESULTS

Early correction of a dysregulated mechanism in young mice prevents manifestation of autistic-like social behaviors in adult mice. Shank2^-/- mice, known to display N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) hypofunction and autistic-like behaviors at postweaning stages after postnatal day 21 (P21), show the opposite synaptic phenotype-NMDAR hyperfunction-at an earlier preweaning stage (∼P14). Moreover, this NMDAR hyperfunction at P14 rapidly shifts to NMDAR hypofunction after weaning (∼P24). Chronic suppression of the early NMDAR hyperfunction by the NMDAR antagonist memantine (P7-P21) prevents NMDAR hypofunction and autistic-like social behaviors from manifesting at later stages (∼P28 and P56).

CONCLUSIONS

Early NMDAR hyperfunction leads to late NMDAR hypofunction and autistic-like social behaviors in Shank2^-/- mice, and early correction of NMDAR dysfunction has the long-lasting effect of preventing autistic-like social behaviors from developing at later stages.

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables.

METHODS

We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors.

RESULTS

MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated (p<0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.

Eighteen-month Clinical Study of Universal Adhesives in Noncarious Cervical Lesions

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical performance of Scotchbond Universal (3M Oral Care) and Prime & Bond Elect (Dentsply Sirona) in the restoration of noncarious cervical lesions (NCCLs).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

This was a randomized controlled clinical trial involving 63 subjects. Two hundred and three NCCLs were restored using Scotchbond Universal and Prime & Bond Elect using both an etch-and-rinse and a self-etch technique. Lesions were notch-shaped NCCLs, and the restorations were placed without any mechanical retention. Restorations were finished immediately after placement and scored with regard to retention, marginal discoloration, marginal adaptation, and secondary caries. Similar assessment of the restorations was performed 18 months after placement. Logistic regression was performed for each outcome separately with a compound symmetric variance-covariance structure assumed to consider a correlation of restorations within subjects. All analyses were conducted using SAS version 9.4 (SAS Inc).

RESULTS

One hundred and fifty-eight teeth (77.8% of the restorations placed) in 46 subjects (73% of subjects enrolled) were available for the 18-month follow-up. A statistically significant difference was reached only for the comparison Scotchbond Universal/self-etch (SU_SE) and Prime & Bond Elect/etch-and-rinse (PBE_E&R) groups ( p=0.01), where a restoration with SU_SE was 66% less likely to maintain a score of Alpha for marginal discoloration than a restoration performed with PBE_E&R.

CONCLUSIONS

Scotchbond Universal and Prime & Bond Elect presented acceptable clinical performance after 18 months of clinical service. However, Scotchbond Universal, when applied with a self-etch approach, did demonstrate a relatively high level of marginal discoloration when compared to the other groups.

Air Pollution and Suicide in 10 Cities in Northeast Asia: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence suggesting an association between air pollution and suicide. However, previous findings varied depending on the type of air pollutant and study location.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between air pollutants and suicide in 10 large cities in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

METHODS

We used a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to estimate the short-term association between nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and particulate matter [aerodynamic diameter ≤10μm (PM₁₀), aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM_2.5), and PM_10–2.5] and suicide, adjusted for weather factors, day-of-week, long-term time trends, and season. Then, we conducted a meta-analysis to combine the city-specific effect estimates for NO₂, SO₂, and PM₁₀ across 10 cities and for PM_2.5 and PM_10–2.5 across 3 cities. We first fitted single-pollutant models, followed by two-pollutant models to examine the robustness of the associations.

RESULTS

Higher risk of suicide was associated with higher levels of NO₂, SO₂, PM₁₀, and PM_10–2.5 over multiple days. The combined relative risks (RRs) were 1.019 for NO₂ (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.999, 1.039), 1.020 for SO₂ (95% CI: 1.005, 1.036), 1.016 for PM₁₀ (95% CI: 1.004, 1.029), and 1.019 for PM_10–2.5 (95% CI: 1.005, 1.033) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in the 0-1 d average level of each pollutant. We found no evidence of an association for PM_2.5. Some of the associations, particularly for SO₂ and NO₂, were attenuated after adjusting for a second pollutant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that higher levels of air pollution may be associated with suicide, and further research is merited to understand the underlying mechanisms. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2223.

A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate

BACKGROUND

Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation.

METHODS

Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985-2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population.

RESULTS

Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45-1.66% to 0.15-0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57-15.43% to 2.16-8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

Monte Carlo simulation-based estimation for the minimum mortality temperature in temperature-mortality association study

BACKGROUND

Rich literature has reported that there exists a nonlinear association between temperature and mortality. One important feature in the temperature-mortality association is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT). The commonly used approach for estimating the MMT is to determine the MMT as the temperature at which mortality is minimized in the estimated temperature-mortality association curve. Also, an approximate bootstrap approach was proposed to calculate the standard errors and the confidence interval for the MMT. However, the statistical properties of these methods were not fully studied.

METHODS

Our research assessed the statistical properties of the previously proposed methods in various types of the temperature-mortality association. We also suggested an alternative approach to provide a point and an interval estimates for the MMT, which improve upon the previous approach if some prior knowledge is available on the MMT. We compare the previous and alternative methods through a simulation study and an application. In addition, as the MMT is often used as a reference temperature to calculate the cold- and heat-related relative risk (RR), we examined how the uncertainty in the MMT affects the estimation of the RRs.

RESULTS

The previously proposed method of estimating the MMT as a point (indicated as Argmin2) may increase bias or mean squared error in some types of temperature-mortality association. The approximate bootstrap method to calculate the confidence interval (indicated as Empirical1) performs properly achieving near 95% coverage but the length can be unnecessarily extremely large in some types of the association. We showed that an alternative approach (indicated as Empirical2), which can be applied if some prior knowledge is available on the MMT, works better reducing the bias and the mean squared error in point estimation and achieving near 95% coverage while shortening the length of the interval estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The Monte Carlo simulation-based approach to estimate the MMT either as a point or as an interval was shown to perform well particularly when some prior knowledge is incorporated to reduce the uncertainty. The MMT uncertainty also can affect the estimation for the MMT-referenced RR and ignoring the MMT uncertainty in the RR estimation may lead to invalid results with respect to the bias in point estimation and the coverage in interval estimation.