Prevalence and Correlates of Myocardial Scar in a US Cohort

IMPORTANCE

Myocardial scarring leads to cardiac dysfunction and poor prognosis. The prevalence of and factors associated with unrecognized myocardial infarction and scar have not been previously defined using contemporary methods in a multiethnic US population.

OBJECTIVE

To determine prevalence of and factors associated with myocardial scar in middle- and older-aged individuals in the United States.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study is a population-based cohort in the United States. Participants were aged 45 through 84 years and free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline in 2000-2002. In the 10th year examination (2010-2012), 1840 participants underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging with gadolinium to detect myocardial scar. Cardiovascular disease risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores were measured at baseline and year 10. Logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for myocardial scar.

EXPOSURES

Cardiovascular risk factors, CAC scores, left ventricle size and function, and carotid intima-media thickness.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Myocardial scar detected by CMR imaging.

RESULTS

Of 1840 participants (mean [SD] age, 68 [9] years, 52% men), 146 (7.9%) had myocardial scars, of which 114 (78%) were undetected by electrocardiogram or by clinical adjudication. In adjusted models, age, male sex, body mass index, hypertension, and current smoking at baseline were associated with myocardial scar at year 10. The OR per 8.9-year increment was 1.61 (95% CI, 1.36-1.91; P < .001); for men vs women: OR, 5.76 (95% CI, 3.61-9.17; P < .001); per 4.8-SD body mass index: OR, 1.32 (95% CI, 1.09-1.61, P = .005); for hypertension: OR, 1.61 (95% CI, 1.12-2.30; P = .009); and for current vs never smokers: 2.00 (95% CI, 1.22-3.28; P = .006). Age-, sex-, and ethnicity-adjusted CAC scores at baseline were also associated with myocardial scar at year 10. Compared with a CAC score of 0, the OR for scores from 1 through 99 was 2.4 (95% CI, 1.5-3.9); from 100 through 399, 3.0 (95% CI, 1.7-5.1), and 400 or higher, 3.3 (95% CI, 1.7-6.1) (P ≤ .001). The CAC score significantly added to the association of myocardial scar with age, sex, race/ethnicity, and traditional CVD risk factors (C statistic, 0.81 with CAC vs 0.79 without CAC, P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The prevalence of myocardial scars in a US community-based multiethnic cohort was 7.9%, of which 78% were unrecognized by electrocardiography or clinical evaluation. Further studies are needed to understand the clinical consequences of these undetected scars.

Adverse Left Ventricular Remodeling and Age Assessed with Cardiac MR Imaging: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

PURPOSE

To evaluate age-related left ventricular (LV) remodeling during longitudinal observation of a large cohort of asymptomatic individuals who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The applicable institutional review boards approved this study, and all participants gave informed consent. Cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) imaging was used to identify longitudinal changes in LV structure and function in 2935 participants who underwent baseline and follow-up cardiac MR imaging in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Participants were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline. Participants who experienced an incident coronary heart disease event were excluded. Data were analyzed with multivariable mixed-effects regression models in which the outcome was cardiac MR imaging measurement, and the covariates included follow-up time and cardiac risk factors.

RESULTS

Participants were aged 54-94 years at follow-up, and 53% of the participants were women. Median time between baseline and follow-up cardiac MR imaging was 9.4 years. Over this period, LV mass increased in men and decreased slightly in women (8.0 and -1.6 g per decade, respectively; P < .001). In both men and women, LV end-diastolic volume decreased (-9.8 and -13.3 mL per decade, respectively; P < .001), stroke volume decreased (-8.8 and -8.6 mL per decade, respectively; P < .001), and mass-to-volume ratio increased (0.14 and 0.11 g/mL per decade, respectively; P < .001). Change in LV mass was positively associated with systolic blood pressure and body mass index and negatively associated with treated hypertension and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level. In men, the longitudinal LV mass increase was in contrast to a cross-sectional pattern of LV mass decrease.

CONCLUSION

As patients age, the LV responds differently in its mass and volume between men and women, although both men and women experience increased concentric LV remodeling with age. In men, the opposition of longitudinal and cross-sectional changes in LV mass highlights the importance of longitudinal study.

10-Year Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Using Coronary Artery Calcium and Traditional Risk Factors: Derivation in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) With Validation in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall) Study and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study)

BACKGROUND

Several studies have demonstrated the tremendous potential of using coronary artery calcium (CAC) in addition to traditional risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction. However, to date, no risk score incorporating CAC has been developed.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to derive and validate a novel risk score to estimate 10-year CHD risk using CAC and traditional risk factors.

METHODS

Algorithm development was conducted in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective community-based cohort study of 6,814 participants age 45 to 84 years, who were free of clinical heart disease at baseline and followed for 10 years. MESA is sex balanced and included 39% non-Hispanic whites, 12% Chinese Americans, 28% African Americans, and 22% Hispanic Americans. External validation was conducted in the HNR (Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study) and the DHS (Dallas Heart Study).

RESULTS

Inclusion of CAC in the MESA risk score offered significant improvements in risk prediction (C-statistic 0.80 vs. 0.75; p < 0.0001). External validation in both the HNR and DHS studies provided evidence of very good discrimination and calibration. Harrell's C-statistic was 0.779 in HNR and 0.816 in DHS. Additionally, the difference in estimated 10-year risk between events and nonevents was approximately 8% to 9%, indicating excellent discrimination. Mean calibration, or calibration-in-the-large, was excellent for both studies, with average predicted 10-year risk within one-half of a percent of the observed event rate.

CONCLUSIONS

An accurate estimate of 10-year CHD risk can be obtained using traditional risk factors and CAC. The MESA risk score, which is available online on the MESA web site for easy use, can be used to aid clinicians when communicating risk to patients and when determining risk-based treatment strategies.

Multisite extracoronary calcification indicates increased risk of coronary heart disease and all-cause mortality: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular calcification outside of the coronary tree, known as extracoronary calcification (ECC), is highly prevalent, often occurs concurrently in multiple sites, and yet its prognostic value is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether multisite ECC is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) events, CHD mortality, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We evaluated 5903 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis without diabetes who underwent CT imaging for calcification of the aortic valve, aortic root, mitral valve, and thoracic aorta. Participants were followed for 10.3 years. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios estimated risk of outcomes for increasing numbers of ECC sites (0, 1, 2, 3, and 4), and receiver operator characteristic analysis assessed model discrimination.

RESULTS

Prevalence of any ECC was 45%; median age was 62 years. Compared with those without ECC, those with ECC in 4 sites had increased hazards of 4.5, 7.1 and 2.3 for CHD events, CHD mortality, and all-cause mortality, respectively, independent of traditional risk factors (TRF; all P ≤ .05), and had ≥2-fold increased hazards for outcomes independent of coronary artery calcification (CAC). Each additional site of ECC was positively associated with each outcome in a graded fashion. When added to TRF, ECC significantly increased the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for all outcomes and modestly increased the area under the curve for mortality beyond TRF + CAC (0.799 to 0.802; P = .03).

CONCLUSION

Increasing multisite ECC has a graded association with higher CHD and mortality risk, contributing information beyond TRF. Multisite ECC incidentally identified on imaging can be used to improve individualized risk prediction.

Risk Factors for Long-Term Coronary Artery Calcium Progression in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) detected by noncontrast cardiac computed tomography scanning is a measure of coronary atherosclerosis burden. Increasing CAC levels have been strongly associated with increased coronary events. Prior studies of cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression have been limited by short follow-up or restricted to patients with advanced disease.

Methods and Results

We examined cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression in a prospective multiethnic cohort study. CAC was measured 1 to 4 times (mean 2.5 scans) over 10 years in 6810 adults without preexisting cardiovascular disease. Mean CAC progression was 23.9 Agatston units/year. An innovative application of mixed-effects models investigated associations between cardiovascular disease risk factors and CAC progression. This approach adjusted for time-varying factors, was flexible with respect to follow-up time and number of observations per participant, and allowed simultaneous control of factors associated with both baseline CAC and CAC progression. Models included age, sex, study site, scanner type, and race/ethnicity. Associations were observed between CAC progression and age (14.2 Agatston units/year per 10 years [95% CI 13.0 to 15.5]), male sex (17.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 15.3 to 20.3]), hypertension (13.8 Agatston units/year [95% CI 11.2 to 16.5]), diabetes (31.3 Agatston units/year [95% CI 27.4 to 35.3]), and other factors.

Conclusions

CAC progression analyzed over 10 years of follow-up, with a novel analytical approach, demonstrated strong relationships with risk factors for incident cardiovascular events. Longitudinal CAC progression analyzed in this framework can be used to evaluate novel cardiovascular risk factors.

Relationship of pericardial fat with lipoprotein distribution: The Multi-Ethnic study of atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Pericardial fat and lipoprotein abnormalities contribute to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated the relationship between pericardial fat volume and lipoprotein distribution, and whether the association of pericardial fat volume with subclinical atherosclerosis and incident CVD events differs according to lipoprotein distribution.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 5407 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who had measurements of pericardial fat volume, lipoprotein distribution, carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), and coronary artery calcium (CAC). All participants were free of clinically apparent CVD at baseline. Incident CVD was defined as any adjudicated CVD event.

RESULTS

After adjusting for demographic factors, traditional risk factors, and biomarkers of inflammation and hemostasis, a larger pericardial fat volume was associated with higher large VLDL particle (VLDL-P) concentration and small HDL particle (HDL-P) concentration, and smaller HDL-P size (regression coefficients = 0.585 nmol/L, 0.366 μmol/L, and -0.025 nm per SD increase in pericardial fat volume respectively, all P < 0.05). The association of pericardial fat volume with large VLDL-P concentration and HDL-P size, but not small HDL-P concentration, remained significant after further adjusting for each other as well as LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides. The relationship of pericardial fat volume with incident CVD events, carotid IMT, and prevalence and severity of CAC did not differ by quartiles of large VLDL-P concentration, small HDL-P concentration, or HDL-P size (P for interaction>0.05).

CONCLUSION

Pericardial fat is associated with atherogenic lipoprotein abnormalities. However, its relationship with subclinical atherosclerosis and incident CVD events does not differ according to lipoprotein distribution.

Utility of Nontraditional Risk Markers in Individuals Ineligible for Statin Therapy According to the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cholesterol Guidelines

BACKGROUND

In the general population, the majority of cardiovascular events occur in people at the low to moderate end of population risk distribution. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline on the treatment of blood cholesterol recommends consideration of statin therapy for adults with an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥7.5% based on traditional risk factors. Whether use of nontraditional risk markers can improve risk assessment in those below this threshold for statin therapy is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a population sample free of clinical CVD at baseline, we calibrated the Pooled Cohort Equations (cPCE). ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Adults with an initial cPCE <7.5% and elevated levels of additional risk markers (abnormal test) whose new calculated risk was ≥7.5% were considered statin eligible: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL; family history of ASCVD; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2 mg/dL; coronary artery calcium score ≥300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile for age, sex, and ethnicity; and ankle-brachial index <0.9. We compared the absolute and relative ASCVD risks among those with versus without elevated posttest estimated risk. We calculated the number needed to screen to identify 1 person with abnormal test for each risk marker, defined as the number of participants with baseline cPCE risk <7.5% divided by the number with an abnormal test reclassified as statin eligible. Of 5185 participants not taking statins with complete data (age, 45-84 years), 4185 had a cPCE risk <7.5%. During 10 years of follow-up, 57% of the ASCVD events (183 of 320) occurred among adults with a cPCE risk <7.5%. When people with diabetes mellitus were excluded, the coronary artery calcium criterion reclassified 6.8% upward, with an event rate of 13.3%, absolute risk of 10%, relative risk of 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-5.7), and number needed to screen of 14.7. The corresponding numbers for family history of ASCVD were 4.6%, 15.1%, 12%, 4.3 (95% CI, 3.0-6.4), and 21.8; for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein criteria, 2.6%, 10%, 6%, 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-4.8), and 39.2; for ankle-brachial index criteria, 0.6%, 9%, 5%, 2.3 (95% CI, 0.6-8.6), and 176.5; and for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol criteria, 0.5%, 5%, 1%, 1.2 (95% CI, 0.2-8.4), and 193.3, respectively. Of the 3882 with <7.5% cPCE risk, 431 (11.1%) were reclassified to ≥7.5% (statin eligible) by at least 1 of the additional risk marker criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

In this generally low-risk population sample, a large proportion of ASCVD events occurred among adults with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5%. We found that the coronary artery calcium score, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, family history of ASCVD, and ankle-brachial index recommendations by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines (Class IIB) identify small subgroups of asymptomatic population with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5% but with observed ASCVD event rates >7.5% who may warrant statin therapy considerations.

Objectively measured sleep characteristics and prevalence of coronary artery calcification: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Sleep study

BACKGROUND

We tested whether objectively measured indices of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) and sleep quality are associated with coronary artery calcification (CAC) prevalence independent of obesity, a classic confounder.

METHODS

1465 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants (mean age 68 years), who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease, had both coronary CT and in-home polysomnography and actigraphy performed. OSA categories were defined by the Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI). Prevalence ratios (PRs) for CAC >0 and >400 (high burden) were calculated.

RESULTS

Participants with severe OSA (AHI ≥30; 14.6%) were more likely to have prevalent CAC, relative to those with no evidence of OSA, after adjustment for demographics and smoking status (PR 1.16; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.26), body mass index (1.11; 1.02 to 1.21) and traditional cardiovascular risk factors (1.10; 1.01 to 1.19). Other markers of hypoxaemia tended to be associated with a higher prevalence of CAC >0. For CAC >400, a higher prevalence was observed with both a higher arousal index and less slow-wave sleep. Overall, associations were somewhat stronger among younger participants, but did not vary by sex or race/ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based multi-ethnic sample, severe OSA was associated with subclinical coronary artery disease (CAC >0), independent of obesity and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, the associations of the arousal index and slow-wave sleep with high CAC burden suggest that higher nightly sympathetic nervous system activation is also a risk factor. These findings highlight the potential importance of measuring disturbances in OSA as well as sleep fragmentation as possible risk factors for coronary artery disease.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 and risk of incident cardiovascular disease in a multi-ethnic cohort: The multi ethnic study of atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Prospective studies reporting a positive association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) mass and activity with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) have included primarily white individuals. We evaluated associations of Lp-PLA2 and first-time cardiovascular events in a healthy multi-ethnic cohort characterized by presence or absence of baseline subclinical atherosclerosis.

METHODS

Lp-PLA2 mass and activity were measured at baseline in 5456 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Individuals were characterized for presence of baseline subclinical disease (coronary artery calcium score > 0 or carotid intima-media thickness value > 80th percentile) and followed prospectively for development of CVD events (coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death).

RESULTS

516 incident CVD events occurred over median follow-up of 10.2 years. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, each higher standard deviation of both Lp-PLA2 activity and mass was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events; hazard ratios (HR; 95% confidence intervals (CI)) 1.12 (1.01-1.26) for Lp-PLA2 activity and 1.10 (1.01-1.21) for mass. Associations did not differ by subclinical disease status (p-value for interaction 0.99 for Lp-PLA2 activity and 0.32 for Lp-PLA2 mass) and there was no confounding by subclinical atherosclerosis measures. Associations of Lp-PLA2 activity but not mass were weaker in Chinese participants but there were relatively few events among Chinese in race-stratified analysis.

CONCLUSION

In this multi-ethnic cohort, Lp-PLA2 was positively associated with CVD risk, regardless of the presence of coronary artery calcium or a thickened carotid-intimal media.

Asthma predicts cardiovascular disease events: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVES

To identify and characterize an association between persistent asthma and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

MESA is a longitudinal prospective study of an ethnically diverse cohort of individuals free of known CVD at its inception. The presence and severity of asthma were assessed in the MESA at examination 1. Persistent asthma was defined as asthmatics using controller medications (inhaled corticosteroids, leukotriene inhibitors, and oral corticosteroids) and intermittent asthma as asthmatics not using controller medications. Participants were followed up for a mean (SD) of 9.1 (2.8) years for development of incident CVD (coronary death, myocardial infarction, angina, stroke, and CVD death). Multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess associations of asthma and CVD. The 6792 participants were 62.2 (SD, 10.2) years old: 47% men (28% black, 22% Hispanic, and 12% Chinese). Persistent asthmatics (n=156), compared with intermittent (n=511) and nonasthmatics (n=6125), respectively, had higher C-reactive protein (1.2 [1.2] versus 0.9 [1.2] versus 0.6 [1.2] mg/L) and fibrinogen (379 [88] versus 356 [80] versus 345 [73] mg/dL) levels. Persistent asthmatics had the lowest unadjusted CVD-free survival rate of 84.1%, 95% confidence interval (78.9%-90.3%) compared with intermittent asthmatics 91.1% (88.5%-93.8%) and nonasthmatics 90.2% (89.4%-91%). Persistent asthmatics had greater risk of CVD events than nonasthmatics (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.6 [1.01-2.5]; P=0.040]), even after adjustment for age, sex, race, CVD risk factors, and antihypertensive and lipid medication use.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large multiethnic cohort, persistent asthmatics had a higher CVD event rate than nonasthmatics.

Relationship of pericardial fat with biomarkers of inflammation and hemostasis, and cardiovascular disease: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Pericardial fat may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by increasing circulating levels of inflammation and hemostasis biomarkers. We investigated the associations of pericardial fat with inflammation and hemostasis biomarkers, as well as incident CVD events, and whether there are any ethnic differences in these associations.

METHODS

We analyzed results from 6415 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who had measurements of pericardial fat volume and circulating levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, interleukin (IL)-6, factor VIII, D-dimer and plasmin-antiplasmin complex (PAP), and had a mean follow-up period of 9.5 years. Incident CVD event was defined as any adjudicated CVD event.

RESULTS

After adjusting for confounding factors, pericardial fat volume was positively associated with natural log (ln) of IL-6 levels, but inversely associated with ln D-dimer and ln PAP levels (β = 0.067, -0.032, and -0.105 respectively, all P < 0.05). Although a larger pericardial fat volume was associated with a higher risk of incident CVD, the association was attenuated to borderline significance after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors (P = 0.050). There was a borderline significant ethnicity interaction (P = 0.080), whereby the association between pericardial fat volume and incident CVD was significant in Hispanic Americans, even after further adjusting for biomarkers of inflammation and hemostasis (hazard ratio = 1.31 per SD increase, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.57, P = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

Pericardial fat was associated with several inflammation and hemostasis biomarkers. The association of pericardial fat with incident CVD events was independent of these biomarkers only among Hispanic Americans.

Leptin and incident cardiovascular disease: the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

OBJECTIVE

Higher serum leptin levels have been associated with a modestly higher incidence of cardiovascular disease in studies involving mostly Caucasian men. We aimed to assess the hypothesis that higher baseline levels of serum leptin are associated with higher risk of future cardiovascular disease in a diverse cohort.

METHODS

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a modern, community-based, ethnically-diverse, and sex-balanced prospective cohort study of US adults free from cardiovascular disease. Serum leptin was measured in an ancillary study in 2002-2005. This analysis included 1905 MESA participants with baseline leptin and incident cardiovascular event data. Leptin levels were modeled as a log-transformed continuous variable and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was performed for the primary outcome of hard cardiovascular disease, including coronary heart disease and stroke.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 7.6 years (25th-75th 7.1-8.3) with 7051 and 6738 person-years of follow-up in women and men. A hard cardiovascular disease event occurred in 47 women and 63 men. The age- and ethnicity-adjusted hazard ratio estimates for a 1 standard deviation increase in ln(leptin) were 1.16 in women (95% CI 0.78-1.73, p = 0.46) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.69-1.20, p = 0.51) in men. Pooling sexes, and adjusting for sex in addition to age and ethnicity, estimates were 0.98 (95% CI 0.78-1.23, p = 0.89). With additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the results remained nonsignificant: 0.87 (95% CI 0.68-1.11, p = 0.26).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, in a modern, US prospective cohort study of multi-ethnic women and men of multi-ethnic backgrounds, leptin levels are not associated with incident cardiovascular events.

The association of resistin with cardiovascular disease in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To describe the relationship between circulating resistin levels and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause death in a multi-ethnic cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 1913 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with measurements of plasma resistin levels. Absolute proportions experiencing new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF), atherosclerotic CVD (myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke), heart failure (HF), and all-cause death were calculated for each quartile of resistin. We used adjusted Cox proportional regression modeling resistin as a continuous variable per standard deviation of log-transformed resistin and secondarily as a categorical variable using resistin quartiles. Results were stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. The mean age of the population was 64.5 ± 10 years with half being female and a median resistin concentration of 15.1 ng/mL (11.9-19.1). Mean follow-up time was 7.2 ± 1.8 years. There was a graded increase in the occurrence of all outcomes across increasing quartiles of resistin. Modeled as a continuous variable, after adjustment for anthropomorphic measures, traditional risk factors, markers of inflammation, and other adipokines, significant associations were noted for HF (HR 1.4, CI 1.0-2.0), hard and all CVD (HR 1.3, 1.1-1.7 and 1.3, 1.1-1.6, respectively), and CHD (HR 1.31, 1.0-1.6), but not for AF or death. Significant interaction terms were noted between resistin and race, with Hispanic race/ethnicity showing the strongest relationship between resistin and outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In an ethnically diverse population without known CVD at baseline, there was a strong, independent association between higher resistin levels and incident CVD, CHD and HF.

An analysis of calibration and discrimination among multiple cardiovascular risk scores in a modern multiethnic cohort

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is essential to effectively balance the risks and benefits of therapy for primary prevention.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the calibration and discrimination of the new American Heart Association (AHA) and American College of Cardiology (ACC) ASCVD risk score with alternative risk scores and to explore preventive therapy as a cause of the reported risk overestimation using the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score.

DESIGN

Prospective epidemiologic study of ASCVD.

SETTING

MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a community-based, sex-balanced, multiethnic cohort.

PATIENTS

4227 MESA participants aged 50 to 74 years and without diabetes at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

Observed and expected events for the AHA-ACC-ASCVD score were compared with 4 commonly used risk scores-and their respective end points-in MESA after a 10.2-year follow-up.

RESULTS

The new AHA-ACC-ASCVD and 3 older Framingham-based risk scores overestimated cardiovascular events by 37% to 154% in men and 8% to 67% in women. Overestimation was noted throughout the continuum of risk. In contrast, the Reynolds Risk Score overestimated risk by 9% in men but underestimated risk by 21% in women. Aspirin, lipid-lowering or antihypertensive therapy, and interim revascularization did not explain the overestimation.

LIMITATION

Comparability of MESA with target populations for primary prevention and possibility of missed events in MESA.

CONCLUSION

Of the 5 risk scores, 4, including the new AHA-ACC-ASCVD score, showed overestimation of risk (25% to 115%) in a modern, multiethnic cohort without baseline clinical ASCVD. If validated, overestimation of ASCVD risk may have substantial implications for individual patients and the health care system.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Use of lipoprotein particle measures for assessing coronary heart disease risk post-American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

The American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association have issued guidelines indicating that the contribution of apolipoprotein B-100 (ApoB) to cardiovascular risk assessment remains uncertain. The present analysis evaluates whether lipoprotein particle measures convey risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in 4679 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Cox regression analysis was performed to determine associations between lipids or lipoproteins and primary CHD events. After adjustment for nonlipid variables, lipoprotein particle levels in fourth quartiles were found to convey significantly greater risk of incident CHD when compared to first quartile levels (hazard ratio [HR]; 95% confidence interval [CI]): ApoB (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.25-2.69), ApoB/ApoA-I (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.32-2.76), total low-density lipoprotein-particles (LDL-P; HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.21-2.58), and the LDL-P/HDL-P (high-density lipoprotein-P) ratio (HR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.54-3.37). Associations between lipoprotein particle measures and CHD were attenuated after adjustment for standard lipid panel variables. Using the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology risk calculator as a baseline model for CHD risk assessment, significant net reclassification improvement scores were found for ApoB/ApoA-I (0.18; P=0.007) and LDL-P/high-density lipoprotein-P (0.15; P<0.001). C-statistics revealed no significant increase in CHD event discrimination for any lipoprotein measure.

CONCLUSIONS

Lipoprotein particle measures ApoB/ApoA-I and LDL-P/high-density lipoprotein-P marginally improved net reclassification improvement scores, but null findings for corresponding c-statistic are not supportive of lipoprotein testing. The attenuated associations of lipoprotein particle measures with CHD after the adjustment for lipids indicate that their measurement does not detect risk that is unaccounted for by the standard lipid panel. However, the possibility that lipoprotein measures may identify CHD risk in a subpopulation of individuals with normal cholesterol, but elevated lipoprotein particle numbers cannot be ruled out.

Significance of a positive family history for coronary heart disease in patients with a zero coronary artery calcium score (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Although a coronary artery calcium (CAC) score of 0 is associated with a very low 10-year risk for cardiac events, this risk is nonzero. Subjects with a family history of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been associated with more subclinical atherosclerosis than subjects without a family history of CHD. The purpose of this study was to assess the significance of a family history for CHD in subjects with a CAC score of 0. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort includes 6,814 participants free of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline. Positive family history was defined as reporting a parent, sibling, or child who had a heart attack. Time to incident CHD or CVD event was modeled using the multivariable Cox regression; 3,185 subjects were identified from the original Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort as having a baseline CAC score of 0 (mean age 58 years, 37% men). Over a median follow-up of 10 years, 101 participants (3.2%) had CVD events and 56 (1.8%) had CHD events. In age- and gender-adjusted analyses, a family history of CHD was associated with an ∼70% increase in CVD (hazard ratio 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 2.56) and CHD (hazard ratio 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 2.91) events. CVD events remained significant after further adjustment for ethnicity, risk factors, and baseline medication use. In conclusion, asymptomatic subjects with a 0 CAC score and a positive family history of CHD are at increased risk for CVD and CHD events compared with those without a family history of CHD, although absolute event rates remain low.

Blood lipids and the incidence of atrial fibrillation: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidemia is a major contributor to the development of atherosclerosis and coronary disease. Its role in the etiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) is uncertain.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 7142 men and women from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Framingham Heart Study who did not have prevalent AF at baseline and were not on lipid-lowering medications. Total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were measured using standard procedures. Incident AF during follow-up was identified from hospital discharge codes; review of medical charts; study electrocardiograms; and, in MESA only, Medicare claims. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of AF by clinical categories of blood lipids in each cohort. Study-specific results were meta-analyzed using inverse of variance weighting. During 9.6 years of mean follow-up, 480 AF cases were identified. In a combined analysis of multivariable-adjusted results from both cohorts, high levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with lower AF risk (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.87 in those with levels ≥60 mg/dL versus <40 mg/dL), whereas high triglycerides were associated with higher risk of AF (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.05 in those with levels ≥200 mg/dL versus <150 mg/dL). Total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were not associated with the risk of AF.

CONCLUSION

In these 2 community-based cohorts, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides but not low-density lipoprotein cholesterol or total cholesterol were associated with the risk of AF, accounting for other cardiometabolic risk factors.

The relationship between insulin resistance and vascular calcification in coronary arteries, and the thoracic and abdominal aorta: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

Insulin resistance may be related to vascular calcification as both are associated with abdominal obesity. We investigated the association of insulin resistance with abdominal aortic calcium (AAC), coronary artery calcium (CAC) and thoracic aortic calcium (TAC), and whether it differs according to different levels of subcutaneous fat area (SFA) and visceral fat area (VFA) in a cross-sectional study design.

METHODS

We investigated 1632 participants without diabetes from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with valid data on homeostasis model assessment index (HOMA-IR), AAC, CAC, and TAC. Adipocytokines, SFA, and VFA were also determined.

RESULTS

HOMA-IR was associated with the presence of CAC, but not AAC and TAC, and the association remained significant after adjusting for traditional risk factors, adipocytokines, abdominal muscle mass, SFA, and VFA (prevalence ratio = 1.04 per one interquartile range [IQR] increase, P = 0.01). As the strength of the association of HOMA-IR with vascular calcification may differ by abdominal fat composition, subgroup analysis was performed among participants with different tertiles of SFA and VFA. Significant interactions between HOMA-IR with SFA and VFA separately were observed for the presence of TAC, but not AAC and CAC, even after adjusting for confounding factors. The association of HOMA-IR with TAC tended to be stronger in participants with more SFA and VFA.

CONCLUSIONS

Atherosclerotic calcification, especially in the coronary arteries, is related to insulin resistance. Further studies are needed to delineate the mechanisms by which visceral obesity can lead to vascular calcification.

Obstructive sleep apnea and progression of coronary artery calcium: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis study

Background

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common condition associated with cardiovascular disease. Its potential effect on progression of subclinical atherosclerosis is not well understood. We tested the hypothesis that self‐reported OSA is associated with progression of coronary artery calcium (CAC). We also evaluated whether traditional cardiovascular risk factors accounted for the association.

Methods and Results

In the Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) prospective cohort, we studied 2603 participants who at baseline (2002–2004) completed a sleep questionnaire and underwent coronary computed tomography (CT) and, then 8 years later (2010–2011), a repeat coronary CT. Participants were categorized by symptoms of habitual snoring or reported physician diagnosis of OSA. At baseline, 102 (3.9%) reported diagnosed OSA; 666 (25.6%) reported diagnosed habitual snoring; and 1835 (70.5%) reported neither habitual snoring nor OSA (“normal”). At baseline, CAC prevalence was highest among those with OSA but similar for those with and without habitual snoring. During 8 years of follow‐up, greater progression of CAC was observed among those with OSA versus normal (mean increase of 204.2 versus 135.5 Agatston units; P=0.01), after accounting for demographics, behaviors, and body habitus. Modest attenuation was observed after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors (188.7 versus 138.8; P=0.06). CAC progression among habitual snorers was similar to that observed in the normal group.

Conclusions

OSA was associated with CAC score progression after adjustment for demographics, behaviors, and body mass index. However, the association was not significant after accounting for cardiovascular risk factors, which may mediate the association between OSA and CAC.

Association of subsyndromal and depressive symptoms with inflammatory markers among different ethnic groups: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

OBJECTIVE

Depressive symptoms are associated with inflammation yet the association between inflammation and different levels of depression remains unclear. Therefore, we studied the association of subsyndromal and depressive symptoms with inflammatory markers in a large multi-ethnic cohort.

METHODS

C-reactive protein (CRP) (n=6269), interleukin-6 (IL-6) (n=6135) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) (n=1830) were measured in selected participants from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA). Subsyndromal depressive symptoms were defined as a CES-D value from 8 to 15, depressive symptoms as a CES-D≥16 and normal as a CES-D≤7. Depressive states (subsyndromal and depressed) were entered into multivariable linear regression models incrementally adjusting for demographic, behavioral, biologic and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Among 6289 participants not taking antidepressants and free from CVD, the mean age was 62.2, while 52% were women, 36.4% were Caucasian, 28.9% African-American, 22.3% Hispanics and 12.4% Chinese-American. Of the total, 24.2% had subsyndromal depression and 11.8% had depressive symptoms. Compared to the non-depressed group and after controlling for demographics, there was no association between both subsyndromal and depressive symptoms with logCRP (β=-0.01, p=0.80 and β=-0.05, p=0.25 respectively), logIL-6 (β=0.01, p=0.71 and β=-0.04, p=0.07 respectively) and logTNF-α (β=-0.03, p=0.29 and β=0.06, p=0.18 respectively). Moreover, fully adjusted models showed no significant associations for logIL-6 and logTNF-α and the different depressive categories. However, with full adjustment, we found a significant inverse association between depressive symptoms and lnCRP (β=-0.10, p=0.01) that was not present for subsyndromal depression (β=-0.05, p=0.11).

CONCLUSION

Among participants not taking anti-depressants, subsyndromal depression is not associated with inflammation. However, depressive symptoms measured by CES-D≥16 are associated with a lower inflammation (CRP).

Extending the Bayesian Adjustment for Confounding algorithm to binary treatment covariates to estimate the effect of smoking on carotid intima-media thickness: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

We illustrate the application of the Bayesian Adjustment for Confounding (BAC) algorithm when the treatment covariate is binary. Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we estimate the effect of ever smoking on common carotid artery intimal medial thickness among adult Caucasian participants (n=1378). Our novel implementation of the BAC algorithm is performed first from an outcome model perspective and second from a treatment model perspective with both inverse probability weighting and doubly-robust estimation techniques. The BAC results are compared with the results obtained using standard model averaging and full model strategies, giving a range of adjusted estimates between 45.50 and 65.30 μm for increased common carotid artery intimal medial thickness among ever smokers. For both perspectives, we observe that BAC offers similar performance to using the fully specified outcome and/or treatment model (the full outcome model ever smoking effect is 48.61 μm; 95% CI: (0.62, 96.60)). We then redo the analyses for the African American, Hispanic, and Chinese adult participants to study the robustness of these findings with reduced sample size. For the Chinese subcohort, which corresponds to the smallest sample size (n=436), we find that, from a treatment model perspective, BAC reduces the variability of the estimates in comparison with using a full model approach. This suggests that the use of BAC in conjunction with inverse probability weighting and doubly-robust estimation can be advantageous when applied to relatively small sample sizes. This conjecture is subsequently verified on the basis of three simulated experiments.

Abdominal aortic calcium, coronary artery calcium, and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive value of abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) independent of coronary artery calcium (CAC).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We evaluated the association of AAC with CVD in 1974 men and women aged 45 to 84 years randomly selected from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who had complete AAC and CAC data from computed tomographic scans. AAC and CAC were each divided into following 3 percentile categories: 0 to 50th, 51st to 75th, and 76th to 100th. During a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, there were 50 hard coronary heart disease events, 83 hard CVD events, 30 fatal CVD events, and 105 total deaths. In multivariable-adjusted Cox models including both AAC and CAC, comparing the fourth quartile with the ≤ 50th percentile, AAC and CAC were each significantly and independently predictive of hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, with hazard ratios ranging from 2.4 to 4.4. For CVD mortality, the hazard ratio was highly significant for the fourth quartile of AAC, 5.9 (P=0.01), whereas the association for the fourth quartile of CAC (hazard ratio, 2.1) was not significant. For total mortality, the fourth quartile hazard ratio for AAC was 2.7 (P=0.001), and for CAC, it was 1.9, P=0.04. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed improvement for both AAC and CAC separately, although improvement was greater with CAC for hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD, and greater with AAC for CVD mortality and total mortality. Sensitivity analyses defining AAC and CAC as continuous variables mirrored these results.

CONCLUSIONS

AAC and CAC predicted hard coronary heart disease and hard CVD events independent of one another. Only AAC was independently related to CVD mortality, and AAC showed a stronger association than CAC with total mortality.

The associations of adipokines with selected markers of the renin-angiotensinogen-aldosterone system: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

Among obese individuals, increased sympathetic nervous system activity results in increased renin and aldosterone production, as well as renal tubular sodium reabsorption. This study determined the associations between adipokines and selected measures of the reninangiotensinogen-aldosterone system (RAAS). The sample was 1,970 men and women from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline and had blood assayed for adiponectin, leptin, plasma renin activity (PRA) and aldosterone. The mean age was 64.7 years and 50% were female. The mean (SD) PRA and aldosterone were 1.45 (0.56) ng/ml and 150.1 (130.5) pg/ml, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, a 1-SD increment of leptin was associated with a 0.55 ng/ml higher PRA and 8.4 pg/ml higher aldosterone (p < 0.01 for both). Although adiponectin was not significantly associated with PRA levels, the same increment in this adipokine was associated with lower aldosterone levels (−5.5 pg/ml, p = 0.01). Notably, the associations between aldosterone and both leptin and adiponectin were not materially changed with additional adjustment for PRA. Exclusion of those taking anti-hypertensive medications modestly attenuated the associations. The associations between leptin and both PRA and aldosterone were not different by gender but were significantly stronger among non-Hispanic Whites and Chinese Americans than African and Hispanic Americans (p < 0.01). The findings suggest that both adiponectin and leptin may relevant to blood pressure regulation via the RAAS, that the associations appear to be robust to anti-hypertension medication use and that the associations are likely different by ethnicity.

Association of renin and aldosterone with ethnicity and blood pressure: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Although variations in plasma renin activity (PRA) and aldosterone have been examined in whites and blacks, the association of these hormones with blood pressure in multiethnic populations has not been described.

METHODS

We measured PRA and aldosterone in 1,021 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis not taking antihypertensives and examined the association between ethnicity and PRA/aldosterone and the association between PRA/aldosterone with systolic blood pressure (SBP).

RESULTS

Average age was 62 (SD = 9) years, and 49% of participants were women. Median PRA was 0.51 (interquartile range (IQR) = 0.29-0.87) ng/ml/hour, and median aldosterone was 12.6 (IQR = 9.1-17.1) ng/dl. After age and sex adjustment, compared with whites, blacks had 28% lower PRA and 17.4% lower aldosterone, and Hispanics had 20.1% higher PRA but similar aldosterone levels. After multivariable adjustment, compared with whites, only Hispanic ethnicity independently associated with higher PRA (0.18ng/ml/hour; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.06-0.31). Blacks had lower aldosterone (-1.7ng/dl; 95% CI = -3.2 to -0.2) compared with whites. After multivariable adjustment, PRA was associated with lower SBP in whites (-3.2mm Hg; 95% CI = -5.2 to -1.2 per standardized unit PRA), Chinese (-3.5mm Hg; 95% CI = -6.2 to -0.80 per standardized unit), and Hispanics (-2.3mm Hg; 95% CI = -4.1 to -0.6 per standardized unit) but not blacks. Aldosterone was associated with higher SBP only in Hispanics (2.5mm Hg; 95% CI = 0.4-4.5 per SD).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with whites, blacks have lower aldosterone and Hispanics have higher PRA. Aldosterone had significant associations with higher SBP in Hispanics compared with other groups, a finding that may suggest a different mechanism of hypertension.