Flowering phenology as a functional trait in a tallgrass prairie

• The timing of flowering is a critical component of the ecology of plants and has the potential to structure plant communities. Yet, we know little about how the timing of flowering relates to other functional traits, species abundance, and average environmental conditions. • Here, we assessed first flowering dates (FFDs) in a North American tallgrass prairie (Konza Prairie) for 431 herbaceous species and compared them with a series of other functional traits, environmental metrics, and species abundance across ecological contrasts. • The pattern of FFDs among the species of the Konza grassland was shaped by local climate, can be linked to resource use by species, and patterns of species abundance across the landscape. Peak FFD for the community occurred when soils were typically both warm and wet, while relatively few species began flowering when soils tended to be the driest. Compared with late-flowering species, species that flowered early had lower leaf tissue density and were more abundant on uplands than lowlands. • Flowering phenology can contribute to the structuring of grassland communities, but was largely independent of most functional traits. Therefore, selection for flowering phenology may be independent of general resource strategies.

No evidence for a role of competitive capabilities of adults in causing habitat segregation of diploid and hexaploid Senecio carniolicus (Asteracaeae)

Hexaploid individuals of Senecio carniolicus (Asteraceae) predominantly occur in dense swards while diploids prevail in open vegetation. We test whether this habitat segregation is due to differential responses to competition. Linear regression models were used to relate biomass and maximum leaf length of adults to vegetation cover within radii of 20 cm around target individuals. Biomass differed between ploidy levels, but was independent from vegetation cover in both cytotypes. Maximum leaf length of diploids increased with vegetation cover, but remained constant in hexaploids. This suggests that at the adult stage diploids respond to increasing competition by changes in plant architecture rather than changes in resource utilization, while hexaploids are unaffected by competition. Consequently, other factors, such as competitive interactions at earlier life stages, likely are responsible for habitat segregation of diploid and hexaploid S. carniolicus.

The accuracy of climate models' simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of grid scale correction factors

Global climate change is expected to impact biological populations through a variety of mechanisms including increases in the length of their growing season. Climate models are useful tools for predicting how season length might change in the future. However, the accuracy of these models tends to be rather low at regional geographic scales. Here, I determined the ability of several atmosphere and ocean general circulating models (AOGCMs) to accurately simulate historical season lengths for a temperate ectotherm across the continental United States. I also evaluated the effectiveness of regional-scale correction factors to improve the accuracy of these models. I found that both the accuracy of simulated season lengths and the effectiveness of the correction factors to improve the model's accuracy varied geographically and across models. These results suggest that regional specific correction factors do not always adequately remove potential discrepancies between simulated and historically observed environmental parameters. As such, an explicit evaluation of the correction factors' effectiveness should be included in future studies of global climate change's impact on biological populations.

Evolutionary genetics of plant adaptation

Plants provide unique opportunities to study the mechanistic basis and evolutionary processes of adaptation to diverse environmental conditions. Complementary laboratory and field experiments are important for testing hypotheses reflecting long-term ecological and evolutionary history. For example, these approaches can infer whether local adaptation results from genetic tradeoffs (antagonistic pleiotropy), where native alleles are best adapted to local conditions, or if local adaptation is caused by conditional neutrality at many loci, where alleles show fitness differences in one environment, but not in a contrasting environment. Ecological genetics in natural populations of perennial or outcrossing plants can also differ substantially from model systems. In this review of the evolutionary genetics of plant adaptation, we emphasize the importance of field studies for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of model and nonmodel systems, highlight a key life history trait (flowering time) and discuss emerging conservation issues.

Shifts in the flowering phenology of the northern Great Plains: patterns over 100 years

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Climate change is associated with phenological shifts in an increasing number of organisms worldwide. However, accurate estimates of these shifts are dependent on long-term data sets that include phenological observations from before annual average temperatures began to rise.

METHODS

We compared the first flowering times of native prairie plants between 2007 and 2010 with historical data recorded by O. A. Stevens from 1910 to 1961. By merging climate variable data from the same time period, it also was possible to correlate first flowering dates with associated climate variables.

KEY RESULTS

Over the past 100 years, spring temperatures in the Red River Valley near Fargo, North Dakota, USA, have increased, and growing seasons have lengthened significantly. Seventy-five percent of the 178 species observed by Stevens had flowering times that were sensitive to at least one variable related to temperature or precipitation. Over the past 4 yr, 5% to 17% of the species observed have significantly shifted their first flowering time either earlier or later relative to the previous century.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study indicate that as spring temperatures in the northern Great Plains have increased and the growing season has lengthened, some spring flowering species have advanced their first flowering time, some fall species have delayed their first flowering, and some species have not changed. Given the importance of flowering timing for reproductive success, the changing climate in the Great Plains is expected to have long-term ecological and evolutionary consequences for native plant species.

Projecting insect voltinism under high and low greenhouse gas emission conditions

We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), voltinism that may occur with climate projections developed from the average of three climate models using two different future emissions scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Based on historical climate data from 1960 to 2008, and projected downscaled climate data until 2099 under both high (A1fi) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we used concepts of P. viteana biology to estimate distributions of individuals entering successive generations per year. Under the low emissions scenario, we observed an earlier emergence from diapause and a shift in mean voltinism from 2.8 to 3.1 generations per year, with a fraction of the population achieving a fourth generation. Under the high emissions scenario, up to 3.6 mean generations per year were projected by the end of this century, with a very small fraction of the population achieving a fifth generation. Changes in voltinism in this and other species in response to climate change likely will cause significant economic and ecological impacts, and the methods presented here can be readily adapted to other species for which the input distributions are reasonably approximated.

Modes of response to environmental change and the elusive empirical evidence for bet hedging

Uncertainty is a problem not only in human decision-making, but is a prevalent quality of natural environments and thus requires evolutionary response. Unpredictable natural selection is expected to result in the evolution of bet-hedging strategies, which are adaptations to long-term fluctuating selection. Despite a recent surge of interest in bet hedging, its study remains mired in conceptual and practical difficulties, compounded by confusion over what constitutes evidence for its existence. Here, I attempt to resolve misunderstandings about bet hedging and its relationship with other modes of response to environmental change, identify the challenges inherent to its study and assess the state of existing empirical evidence. The variety and distribution of plausible bet-hedging traits found across 16 phyla in over 100 studies suggest their ubiquity. Thus, bet hedging should be considered a specific mode of response to environmental change. However, the distribution of bet-hedging studies across evidence categories-defined according to potential strength-is heavily skewed towards weaker categories, underscoring the need for direct appraisals of the adaptive significance of putative bet-hedging traits in nature.

Life-history QTLS and natural selection on flowering time in Boechera stricta, a perennial relative of Arabidopsis

Plants must precisely time flowering to capitalize on favorable conditions. Although we know a great deal about the genetic basis of flowering phenology in model species under controlled conditions, the genetic architecture of this ecologically important trait is poorly understood in nonmodel organisms. Here, we evaluated the transition from vegetative growth to flowering in Boechera stricta, a perennial relative of Arabidopsis thaliana. We examined flowering time QTLs using 7920 recombinant inbred individuals, across seven laboratory and field environments differing in vernalization, temperature, and photoperiod. Genetic and environmental factors strongly influenced the transition to reproduction. We found directional selection for earlier flowering in the field. In the growth chamber experiment, longer winters accelerated flowering, whereas elevated ambient temperatures delayed flowering. Our analyses identified one large effect QTL (nFT), which influenced flowering time in the laboratory and the probability of flowering in the field. In Montana, homozygotes for the native allele at nFT showed a selective advantage of 6.6%. Nevertheless, we found relatively low correlations between flowering times in the field and the growth chambers. Additionally, we detected flowering-related QTLs in the field that were absent across the full range of laboratory conditions, thus emphasizing the need to conduct experiments in natural environments.

Flowering phenology, fruiting success and progressive deterioration of pollination in an early-flowering geophyte

Spatio-temporal patterns of snowmelt and flowering times affect fruiting success in Erythronium grandiflorum Pursh (Liliaceae) in subalpine western Colorado, USA. From 1990 to 1995, I measured the consistency across years of snowmelt patterns and flowering times along a permanent transect. In most years since 1993, I have monitored fruit set in temporal cohorts (early- to late-flowering groups of plants) at one site. To assess 'pollination limitation', I have also conducted supplemental hand-pollination experiments at various times through the blooming season. The onset of blooming is determined by snowmelt, with the earliest years starting a month before the latest years owing to variation in winter snowpack accumulation. Fruit set is diminished or prevented entirely by killing frosts in some years, most frequently but not exclusively for the earlier cohorts. When frosts do not limit fruit set, pollination limitation is frequent, especially in the earlier cohorts. Pollination limitation is strongest for middle cohorts: it tends to be negated by frost in early cohorts and ameliorated by continuing emergence of bumble-bee queens in later cohorts. This lily appears to be poorly synchronized with its pollinators. Across the years of the study, pollination limitation appears to be increasing, perhaps because the synchronization is getting worse.

Forecasting phenology under global warming

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

The effects of phenological mismatches on demography

Climate change is altering the phenology of species across the world, but what are the consequences of these phenological changes for the demography and population dynamics of species? Time-sensitive relationships, such as migration, breeding and predation, may be disrupted or altered, which may in turn alter the rates of reproduction and survival, leading some populations to decline and others to increase in abundance. However, finding evidence for disrupted relationships, or lack thereof, and their demographic effects, is difficult because the necessary detailed observational data are rare. Moreover, we do not know how sensitive species will generally be to phenological mismatches when they occur. Existing long-term studies provide preliminary data for analysing the phenology and demography of species in several locations. In many instances, though, observational protocols may need to be optimized to characterize timing-based multi-trophic interactions. As a basis for future research, we outline some of the key questions and approaches to improving our understanding of the relationships among phenology, demography and climate in a multi-trophic context. There are many challenges associated with this line of research, not the least of which is the need for detailed, long-term data on many organisms in a single system. However, we identify key questions that can be addressed with data that already exist and propose approaches that could guide future research.

Why does phenology drive species distribution?

Despite the numerous studies which have been conducted during the past decade on species ranges and their relationship to the environment, our understanding of how environmental conditions shape species distribution is still far from complete. Yet, some process-based species distribution models have been able to simulate plants and insects distribution at a global scale. These models strongly rely on the completion of the annual cycle of the species and therefore on their accomplished phenology. In particular, they have shown that the northern limit of species' ranges appears to be caused mainly by the inability to undergo full fruit maturation, while the southern limit appears to be caused by the inability to flower or unfold leaves owing to a lack of chilling temperatures that are necessary to break bud dormancy. I discuss here why phenology is a key adaptive trait in shaping species distribution using mostly examples from plant species, which have been the most documented. After discussing how phenology is involved in fitness and why it is an adaptive trait susceptible to evolve quickly in changing climate conditions, I describe how phenology is related to fitness in species distribution process-based models and discuss the fate of species under climate change scenarios using model projections and experimental or field studies from the literature.

Toward a synthetic understanding of the role of phenology in ecology and evolution

Phenology affects nearly all aspects of ecology and evolution. Virtually all biological phenomena-from individual physiology to interspecific relationships to global nutrient fluxes-have annual cycles and are influenced by the timing of abiotic events. Recent years have seen a surge of interest in this topic, as an increasing number of studies document phenological responses to climate change. Much recent research has addressed the genetic controls on phenology, modelling techniques and ecosystem-level and evolutionary consequences of phenological change. To date, however, these efforts have tended to proceed independently. Here, we bring together some of these disparate lines of inquiry to clarify vocabulary, facilitate comparisons among habitat types and promote the integration of ideas and methodologies across different disciplines and scales. We discuss the relationship between phenology and life history, the distinction between organismal- and population-level perspectives on phenology and the influence of phenology on evolutionary processes, communities and ecosystems. Future work should focus on linking ecological and physiological aspects of phenology, understanding the demographic effects of phenological change and explicitly accounting for seasonality and phenology in forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.

Changes in snowmelt date and summer precipitation affect the flowering phenology of Erythronium grandiflorum (glacier lily; Liliaceae)

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Climate change has affected species worldwide, including alterations in phenology, migration patterns, distribution, and survival. Because Erythronium grandiflorum is an early-season bloomer, alterations in its phenology may have serious implications for many North American Rocky Mountain communities, including changes in resource availability for pollinators and herbivores. •

METHODS

We investigated whether changes in the snowmelt date, summer temperature, and summer precipitation have altered the timing and abundance of flowering in E. grandiflorum by collecting long-term data on floral abundance from 1975-2008 in a series of 2 × 2 m plots at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) in Gothic, Colorado in the United States. •

KEY RESULTS

Snowmelt date and mean summer temperature were negatively correlated. Over the 30-yr study, the snowmelt date advanced by 4.14 d/decade, and mean summer temperature increased by 0.38°C/decade. Summer precipitation was variable, showing no change. The first, peak, and last flowering dates of E. grandiflorum advanced an average of 3.2 d/decade. Furthermore, earlier snowmelt and greater summer precipitation in the previous year led to earlier flowering in E. grandiflorum. There was no change in flowering abundance in this species, indicating it may be controlled by a complex set of abiotic and biotic variables. •

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that snowmelt is arriving earlier at the RMBL, which has caused earlier flowering in E. grandiflorum. Because alterations in phenology can disrupt important ecological interactions, information on potential phenological shifts in species that interact with E. grandiflorum is essential in determining the net effect of climate-driven alterations in phenology.

Summer freezing resistance decreased in high-elevation plants exposed to experimental warming in the central Chilean Andes

Alpine habitats have been proposed as particularly sensitive to climate change. Shorter snow cover could expose high-elevation plants to very low temperatures, increasing their risk of suffering damage by freezing, hence decreasing their population viability. In addition, a longer and warmer growing season could affect the hardening process on these species. Thus, understanding the ability of these species to withstand freezing events under warmer conditions is essential for predicting how alpine species may respond to future climate changes. Here we assessed the freezing resistance of 11 species from the central Chilean Andes by determining their low temperature damage (LT(50)) and freezing point (FP) after experimental warming in the field. Plants were exposed during two growing seasons to a passive increase in the air temperature using open top chambers (OTCs). OTCs increased by ca. 3 K the mean air and soil daytime temperatures, but had smaller effects on freezing temperatures. Leaf temperature of the different species was on average 5.5 K warmer inside OTCs at midday. While LT(50) of control plants ranged from -9.9 to -22.4, that of warmed plants ranged from -7.4 to -17.3 degrees C. Overall, high-Andean species growing inside OTCs increased their LT(50) ca. 4 K, indicating that warming decreased their ability to survive severe freezing events. Moreover, plants inside OTCs increased the FP ca. 2 K in some studied species, indicating that warming altered processes of ice crystal formation. Resistance of very low temperatures is a key feature of high-elevation species; our results suggest that current climate warming trends will seriously threaten the survival of high-elevation plants by decreasing their ability to withstand severe freezing events.

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.

Consequences of variation in flowering time within and among individuals of Mertensia fusiformis (Boraginaceae), an early spring wildflower

Climate change is causing many plants to flower earlier in spring, exposing them to novel selection pressures, including-potentially-pollinator shortages. Over 2 years that contrasted in timing of flowering onset, we studied reproductive strategies, pollen limitation, and selection on flowering time in Mertensia fusiformis, a self-incompatible, spring-flowering perennial. Plants opened most of their flowers early in the flowering period, especially in 2007, the early year; but selection favored early-flowering individuals only in 2008. However, resource allocation to early vs. late seed production was flexible: In 2008, but not 2007, early flowers on a plant produced more and heavier seeds. Late flowers were capable of equal seed production if fertilization of early ovules was prevented, suggesting that late flowers serve a bet-hedging function. Evidence for pollen limitation was weak, although there was a tendency for early flowers to be pollen-limited in 2007 and for late flowers to be pollen-limited in 2008. Poor reproductive success in 2007 was likely attributable less to pollen limitation than to frost damage to flowers. We suggest that plasticity in floral longevity and resource allocation among flowers will make this species resilient to short-term pollinator deficits; whether this will help or hinder future adaptation is unclear.

Variation in the impact of climate change on flowering phenology and abundance: An examination of two pairs of closely related wildflower species

Variability in plant phenological responses to climate change is likely to lead to changes in many ecological relationships as the climate continues to change. We used a 34-yr record of flowering times and flower abundance for four species (two Delphinium [Ranunculaceae] species and two Mertensia [Boraginaceae] species) from a subalpine plant community near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory to test the hypothesis that the phenologies of early-flowering species change more rapidly in response to climatological and other abiotic cues than do late-flowering species, a pattern previously found in plant communities in North America and Europe. We also explored a related hypothesis, that flower abundance of late-flowering species is more responsive to changes in climate than that of early-flowering species. The Delphinium species did not support these hypotheses, but the Mertensia species did. The difference between the peak flowering times of the early and late Mertensia species is expanding, leading to a period of diminished resources for pollinators that specialize on this genus. Mertensia ciliata populations are already severely declining in our study area, possibly as a result of earlier snowmelt. Together, these results show that the reported differences between early- and late-flowering species may be widespread, but they are not ubiquitous.

Biological consequences of earlier snowmelt from desert dust deposition in alpine landscapes

Dust deposition to mountain snow cover, which has increased since the late 19(th) century, accelerates the rate of snowmelt by increasing the solar radiation absorbed by the snowpack. Snowmelt occurs earlier, but is decoupled from seasonal warming. Climate warming advances the timing of snowmelt and early season phenological events (e.g., the onset of greening and flowering); however, earlier snowmelt without warmer temperatures may have a different effect on phenology. Here, we report the results of a set of snowmelt manipulations in which radiation-absorbing fabric and the addition and removal of dust from the surface of the snowpack advanced or delayed snowmelt in the alpine tundra. These changes in the timing of snowmelt were superimposed on a system where the timing of snowmelt varies with topography and has been affected by increased dust loading. At the community level, phenology exhibited a threshold response to the timing of snowmelt. Greening and flowering were delayed before seasonal warming, after which there was a linear relationship between the date of snowmelt and the timing of phenological events. Consequently, the effects of earlier snowmelt on phenology differed in relation to topography, which resulted in increasing synchronicity in phenology across the alpine landscape with increasingly earlier snowmelt. The consequences of earlier snowmelt from increased dust deposition differ from climate warming and include delayed phenology, leading to synchronized growth and flowering across the landscape and the opportunity for altered species interactions, landscape-scale gene flow via pollination, and nutrient cycling.

Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant

Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar, which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time, which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population, and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations, strongly influencing evolution.

Freezing resistance varies within the growing season and with elevation in high-Andean species of central Chile

Predicted increases in the length of the growing season as a result of climate change may more frequently expose high-elevation plants to severe frosts. Understanding the ability of these species to resist frosts during the growing season is essential for predicting how species may respond to changes in temperature regimes. Here, we assessed the freezing resistance of 24 species from the central Chilean Andes by determining their low temperature damage (LT(50)), ice nucleation temperature (NT), freezing point (FP) and freezing resistance mechanism (i.e. avoidance or tolerance). The Andean species were found to resist frosts from -8.2 to -19.5 degrees C during the growing season, and freezing tolerance was the most common resistance mechanism. Freezing resistance (LT(50)) varied within the growing season, decreasing towards the end of this period in most of the studied species. However, the FP showed the opposite trend. LT(50) increased with elevation, whilst FP was lower in plants from lower elevations, especially late in the growing season. Andean species have the potential to withstand severe freezing conditions during the growing season, and the aridity of this high-elevation environment seems to play an important role in determining this high freezing resistance.

Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming

Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.