Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

Global climate change and mammalian species diversity in U.S. national parks

National parks and bioreserves are key conservation tools used to protect species and their habitats within the confines of fixed political boundaries. This inflexibility may be their "Achilles' heel" as conservation tools in the face of emerging global-scale environmental problems such as climate change. Global climate change, brought about by rising levels of greenhouse gases, threatens to alter the geographic distribution of many habitats and their component species. With these changes comes great uncertainty about the future ability of parks and protected areas to meet their conservation mandates. We report here on an analysis aimed at assessing the extent of mammalian species turnover that may be experienced in eight selected U.S. national parks if climate change causes mammalian species within the continental U.S. to relocate to new geographic locations. Due to species losses of up to 20% and drastic influxes of new species, national parks are not likely to meet their mandate of protecting current biodiversity within park boundaries. This approach represents a conservative prognosis. As species assemblages change, new interactions between species may lead to less predictable indirect effects of climate change, increasing the toll beyond that found in this study.

Population genetic structure of rock ptarmigan Lagopus mutus in Northern and Western Europe

Alpine species may be losing habitat because of global warming. Setting management priorities for such species is thus urgent and cannot be achieved without data on population structure. We studied the structure of rock ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus) populations in the Pyrenees, Alps and Norway, using six microsatellites. We found that rock ptarmigan in the Pyrenees were genetically impoverished compared with those in the Alps and Norway, and displayed a greater divergence (Pyrenees vs. Alps or Norway: theta(ST) = 0.16, Alps vs. Norway, theta(ST) = 0.04). In the Alps, despite a weak genetic differentiation between localities up to 200 km apart (theta(ST) = 0.011), a significant isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect was detected. When computed for each sex separately this IBD effect was significant for males but not for females, suggesting that males are highly philopatric.

Low potential for climatic stress adaptation in a rainforest Drosophila species

The ability of sensitive rainforest species to evolve in response to climate change is largely unknown. We show that the Australian tropical rainforest fly Drosophila birchii exhibits clinal variation in desiccation resistance, but the most resistant population lacks the ability to evolve further resistance even after intense selection for over 30 generations. Parent-offspring comparisons indicate low heritable variation for this trait but high levels of genetic variation for morphology. D. birchii also exhibits abundant genetic variation at microsatellite loci. The low potential for resistance evolution highlights the importance of assessing evolutionary potential in targeted ecological traits and species from threatened habitats.

delta13C and water-use efficiency in Australian grasstrees and South African conifers over the last century

Annual or biannual time courses of plant delta13C (delta13C(p)) over the last century (70-100 years) were recorded for leafbases of four grasstrees (Xanthorrhoea preissii) at four sites in mediterranean Australia and wood of four conifers (Widdringtonia cedarbergensis) at two sites in mediterranean South Africa. There was a strong downward trend of 2-5.5(per thousand ) from 1935 to 1940 to the present in the eight plants. Trends were more variable from 1900 to 1940 with plants at two sites of each species showing an upward trend of 1-2.5 per thousand. Accepting that delta13C of the air (delta13C(a)) fell by almost 2 per thousand over the last century, the ratio of leaf intercellular CO2 to atmospheric CO2 (c(i)/c(a)) rose in five plants and remained unchanged in three over that period. Changes in c(i)/c(a) rather than delta13C(a) were more closely correlated with changes in delta13C(p) and accounted for 6.7-71.8% (22.6 c(i)/c(a)) and 28.2-93.3% (delta13C(a)) of the variation in delta13C(p). We doubt that possible changing patterns of rainfall, water availability, temperature, shade, air pollution or clearing for agriculture have contributed to the overall trend for c(i)/c(a) to rise over time. Instead, we provide evidence (concentrations of Fe and Mn in the grasstree leafbases) that decreasing photosynthetic capacity associated with falling nutrient availability due to the reduced occurrence of fire may have contributed to rising c(i)/c(a). Intrinsic water-use efficiency (W(i)) as a function of (c(a)-c(i)) usually increased linearly over the period, with the two exceptions explained by their marked increase in c(i)/c(a). We conclude that grasstrees may provide equivalent delta13C(p )and W(i) data to long-lived conifers and that their interpretation requires a consideration of the causes of variation in both c(i)/c(a )and delta13C(a).

Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges

We analyse distribution records for 51 British butterfly species to investigate altitudinal and latitudinal responses to twentieth century climate warming. Species with northern and/or montane distributions have disappeared from low elevation sites and colonized sites at higher elevations during the twentieth century, consistent with a climate explanation. We found no evidence for a systematic shift northwards across all species, even though 11 out of 46 southerly distributed species have expanded in the northern part of their distributions. For a subset of 35 species, we model the role of climate in limiting current European distributions and predict potential future distributions for the period 2070-2099. Most northerly distributed species will have little opportunity to expand northwards and will disappear from areas in the south, resulting in reduced range sizes. Southerly distributed species will have the potential to shift northwards, resulting in similar or increased range sizes. However, 30 out of 35 study species have failed to track recent climate changes because of lack of suitable habitat, so we revised our estimates accordingly for these species and predicted 65% and 24% declines in range sizes for northern and southern species, respectively. These revised estimates are likely to be more realistic predictions of future butterfly range sizes.

Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate

We provide evidence of large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas. We demonstrate that strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages have occurred with a northward extension of more than 10 degrees latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These biogeographical shifts are in agreement with recent changes in the spatial distribution and phenology detected for many taxonomic groups in terrestrial European ecosystems and are related to both the increasing trend in Northern Hemisphere temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Climate change hastens population extinctions

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services.

Ecological responses to recent climate change

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

North Atlantic Oscillation synchronizes food-web interactions in central European lakes

A regular and distinct feature of seasonal plankton succession in temperate lakes is the early summer period of algal suppression by herbivores, i.e. the clear water phase. Within the last 30 years the timing of this food-web interaction between algae and herbivores has advanced on average by approximately two weeks in central European lakes due to faster population growth of herbivores in warmer water. Trend and inter-annual variability in clear water timing were strongly related to the climate dynamics of the North Atlantic, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Due to its large-scale effects, the NAO synchronized plankton succession in central European lakes, causing a striking temporal coherence of a food-web interaction over several hundreds of kilometers.

Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming

To date, all altered patterns of seasonal interactions observed in insects, birds, amphibians, and plants associated with global warming during the latter half of the 20th century are explicable as variable expressions of plastic phenotypes. Over the last 30 years, the genetically controlled photoperiodic response of the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, has shifted toward shorter, more southern daylengths as growing seasons have become longer. This shift is detectable over a time interval as short as 5 years. Faster evolutionary response has occurred in northern populations where selection is stronger and genetic variation is greater than in southern populations. W. smithii represents an example of actual genetic differentiation of a seasonality trait that is consistent with an adaptive evolutionary response to recent global warming.

Ecological impacts of arable intensification in Europe

Although arable landscapes have a long history, environmental problems have accelerated in recent decades. The effects of these changes are usually externalized, being greater for society as a whole than for the farms on which they operate, and incentives to correct them are therefore largely lacking. Arable landscapes are valued by society beyond the farming community, but increased mechanization and farm size, simplification of crop rotations, and loss of non-crop features, have led to a reduction in landscape diversity. Low intensity arable systems have evolved a characteristic and diverse fauna and flora, but development of high input, simplified arable systems has been associated with a decline in biodiversity. Arable intensification has resulted in loss of non-crop habitats and simplification of plant and animal communities within crops, with consequent disruption to food chains and declines in many farmland species. Abandonment of arable management has also led to the replacement of such wildlife with more common and widespread species. Soils have deteriorated as a result of erosion, compaction, loss of organic matter and contamination with pesticides, and in some areas, heavy metals. Impacts on water are closely related to those on soils as nutrient and pesticide pollution of water results from surface runoff and subsurface flow, often associated with soil particles, which themselves have economic and ecological impacts. Nitrates and some pesticides also enter groundwater following leaching from arable land. Greatest impacts are associated with simplified, high input arable systems. Intensification of arable farming has been associated with pollution of air by pesticides, NO2 and CO2, while the loss of soil organic matter has reduced the system's capacity for carbon sequestration. International trade contributes to global climate change through long distance transport of arable inputs and products. The EU Rural Development Regulation (1257/99) provides an opportunity to implement measures for alleviating ecological impacts of arable management through a combination of cross-compliance and agri-environment schemes. To alleviate the problems described in this paper, such measures should take account of opportunities for public/private partnerships and should integrate social, cultural, economic and ecological objectives for multifunctional land use.

Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.

Heritability of the timing of autumn migration in a natural bird population

In recent decades, global temperature has increased at an unprecedented rate. This has been causing rapid environmental shifts that have altered the selective regimes determining the annual organization of birds. In order to assess the potential for adaptive evolution in the timing of autumn migration, we estimated heritabilities of the onset of migratory activity in a southern German blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) population. Heritabilities (h2=0.34-0.45) and coefficients of additive genetic variation (CV(A)=4.7-5.7) were significant and consistent when estimated by different methods, irrespective of whether they were derived from birds hatched in the wild or bred in captivity. In an artificial selection experiment, we selected for later onset of migratory activity, simulating expected natural selection on this trait. We obtained a significant delay in the mean onset of migratory activity by more than one week after two generations of selection. Realized heritability (h2=0.55) was in agreement with expected heritability in the cohort that the selection line was derived from. Our results suggest that evolutionary changes in the timing of autumn migration may take place over a very short time period and will most probably be unconstrained by the lack of additive genetic variation.

Global warming and body mass decline in Israeli passerine birds

Global warming may affect the physiology, distributions, phenology and adaptations of plants and animals. In Israel, minimum summer temperatures increased by an average of 0.26 degrees C per decade during the second half of the 20th century. Bergmann's rule predicts that, in warm-blooded animals, races from warm regions are smaller than races from cold regions. Numerous studies have reported general correlations between body mass in fossil animals and independently established palaeoclimatic changes from various parts of the world in accordance with this rule. Using museum specimens, I tested the prediction that the body mass and tarsus length of five resident passerine species in Israel declined between 1950 and 1999. The body mass of four species (the graceful warbler Prinia gracilis, the house sparrow Passer domesticus, the yellow-vented bulbul Pycnonotus xanthopygos and the Sardinian warbler Sylvia melanocephala, but not of the crested lark Galerida cristata) declined significantly during this period. Tarsus length also declined significantly during this period for two species (the graceful warbler and the house sparrow). Body condition (body mass-to-tarsus length ratio) decreased in the Sardinian warbler, the yellow-vented bulbul and the crested lark. It is suggested that the above declines in body mass and tarsus length are due to global warming and also in accordance with Bergmann's rule. The above explanation does not exclude the possibility that other factors, such as a decrease in food availability, contributed to the decline in body mass. These declines may have serious implications for community structure and competition among bird species and may affect the survival of small passerines.

Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra–annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector–borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick–borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long–term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.

Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins

Many animals are regarded as relatively sedentary and specialized in marginal parts of their geographical distributions. They are expected to be slow at colonizing new habitats. Despite this, the cool margins of many species' distributions have expanded rapidly in association with recent climate warming. We examined four insect species that have expanded their geographical ranges in Britain over the past 20 years. Here we report that two butterfly species have increased the variety of habitat types that they can colonize, and that two bush cricket species show increased fractions of longer-winged (dispersive) individuals in recently founded populations. Both ecological and evolutionary processes are probably responsible for these changes. Increased habitat breadth and dispersal tendencies have resulted in about 3- to 15-fold increases in expansion rates, allowing these insects to cross habitat disjunctions that would have represented major or complete barriers to dispersal before the expansions started. The emergence of dispersive phenotypes will increase the speed at which species invade new environments, and probably underlies the responses of many species to both past and future climate change.

The current biodiversity extinction event: scenarios for mitigation and recovery

The current massive degradation of habitat and extinction of species is taking place on a catastrophically short timescale, and their effects will fundamentally reset the future evolution of the planet's biota. The fossil record suggests that recovery of global ecosystems has required millions or even tens of millions of years. Thus, intervention by humans, the very agents of the current environmental crisis, is required for any possibility of short-term recovery or maintenance of the biota. Many current recovery efforts have deficiencies, including insufficient information on the diversity and distribution of species, ecological processes, and magnitude and interaction of threats to biodiversity (pollution, overharvesting, climate change, disruption of biogeochemical cycles, introduced or invasive species, habitat loss and fragmentation through land use, disruption of community structure in habitats, and others). A much greater and more urgently applied investment to address these deficiencies is obviously warranted. Conservation and restoration in human-dominated ecosystems must strengthen connections between human activities, such as agricultural or harvesting practices, and relevant research generated in the biological, earth, and atmospheric sciences. Certain threats to biodiversity require intensive international cooperation and input from the scientific community to mitigate their harmful effects, including climate change and alteration of global biogeochemical cycles. In a world already transformed by human activity, the connection between humans and the ecosystems they depend on must frame any strategy for the recovery of the biota.

Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores

Large-scale climatic fluctuations, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have been shown to affect many ecological processes. Such effects have been typically assumed to be linear. Only one study has reported a nonlinear relation; however, that nonlinear relation was monotonic (that is, no reversal). Here we show that there is a strong nonlinear and non-monotonic (that is, reversed) effect of the NAO on body weight during the subsequent autumn for 23,838 individual wild red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 139,485 individual domestic sheep (Ovis aries) sampled over several decades on the west coast of Norway. These relationships are, at least in part, explained by comparable nonlinear and non-monotonic relations between the NAO and local climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and snow depth). The similar patterns observed for red deer and sheep, the latter of which live indoors during winter and so experience a stable energy supply in winter, suggest that the (winter) climatic variability (for which the index is a proxy) must influence the summer foraging conditions directly or indirectly.

Complex causes of amphibian population declines

Amphibian populations have suffered widespread declines and extinctions in recent decades. Although climatic changes, increased exposure to ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation and increased prevalence of disease have all been implicated at particular localities, the importance of global environmental change remains unclear. Here we report that pathogen outbreaks in amphibian populations in the western USA are linked to climate-induced changes in UV-B exposure. Using long-term observational data and a field experiment, we examine patterns among interannual variability in precipitation, UV-B exposure and infection by a pathogenic oomycete, Saprolegnia ferax. Our findings indicate that climate-induced reductions in water depth at oviposition sites have caused high mortality of embryos by increasing their exposure to UV-B radiation and, consequently, their vulnerability to infection. Precipitation, and thus water depth/UV-B exposure, is strongly linked to El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycles, underscoring the role of large-scale climatic patterns involving the tropical Pacific. Elevated sea-surface temperatures in this region since the mid-1970s, which have affected the climate over much of the world, could be the precursor for pathogen-mediated amphibian declines in many regions.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of the Allonemobius fasciatus- A. socius mosaic hybrid zone: a 14-year perspective

Long-term studies of hybrid zones can provide valuable insight into a number of questions that have long attracted the attention of evolutionists. These questions range from the stability and fate of hybrid zones to the relative fitness of hybrids. In this paper we report the results of a 14-year survey of the Allonemobius fasciatus-Allonemobius socius hybrid zone. Populations were collected intensively in 1986 and 1987 and then more sporadically through the end of the 1980s and throughout the 1990s. By documenting changes in the genetic composition of populations near and within the zone during this period of time we assessed: the strength of the reproductive isolation between the two species; the relative growth rates (which can be considered a surrogate of relative fitness) of genotype classes corresponding to hybrids and to pure species individuals; and, the power of single-year and multi-year measurements of relative growth rates to predict changes in the genetic composition of mixed populations through time. In brief, we found very large year-to-year variation in the relative growth rates of pure species and hybrid individuals. This variation may reflect the fact that both species are at the edge of their range and perhaps at the limits of their ability to deal with environmental perturbations. As a consequence of the variation, even multi-year estimates of relative growth rates often provided imprecise predictions regarding the future genotypic composition of mixed populations. Despite our limited ability to predict the dynamics of individual populations, some trends are apparent. A. socius, the southern species, has clearly increased in frequency along a transect through the Appalachian Mountains, indicating that the zone is moving north in this region. In contrast, the zone appeared to be more stable along the East Coast transect. Within mixed populations, character-index profiles are often bimodal and stable through time, indicating relatively strong reproductive isolation between the two species that is not being reinforced, nor is it breaking down.

Warmer springs disrupt the synchrony of oak and winter moth phenology

Spring temperatures have increased over the past 25 years, to which a wide variety of organisms have responded. The outstanding question is whether these responses match the temperature-induced shift of the selection pressures acting on these organisms. Organisms have evolved response mechanisms that are only adaptive given the existing relationship between the cues organisms use and the selection pressures acting on them. Global warming may disrupt ecosystem interactions because it alters these relationships and micro-evolution may be slow in tracking these changes. In particular, such shifts have serious consequences for ecosystem functioning for the tight multitrophic interactions involved in the timing of reproduction and growth. We determined the response of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) egg hatching and oak (Quercus robur) bud burst to temperature, a system with strong selection on synchronization. We show that there has been poor synchrony in recent warm springs, which is due to an increase in spring temperatures without a decrease in the incidence of freezing spells in winter. This is a clear warning that such changes in temperature patterns may affect ecosystem interactions more strongly than changes in mean temperature.

Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.

Ecology. Weather ruins winter vacations

There has been increasing concern over the decline in many migratory bird species. As Saether discusses in his Perspective, evidence is accumulating (Sillett et al.) that climate change resulting from the El Niño Southern Oscillation affects both the survival rate of adult birds at tropical wintering sites and their reproductive rate at summer breeding grounds in the Northern Hemisphere.