WHEN DO ADAPTIVE PLASTICITY AND GENETIC EVOLUTION PREVENT EXTINCTION OF A DENSITY-REGULATED POPULATION?

Changes in flight period predict trends in abundance of Massachusetts butterflies

Phenological shifts are well-documented in the ecological literature. However, their significance for changes in demography and abundance is less clear. We used 27 years of citizen science monitoring to quantify trends in phenology and relative abundance across 89 butterfly species. We calculated shifts in phenology using quantile regression and shifts in relative abundance using list length analysis and counts from field trips. Elongated activity periods within a year were the strongest predictor of increases in relative abundance. These changes may be driven in part by changes in voltinism, as this association was stronger in multivoltine species. Some species appear to be adding a late-season generation, whereas other species appear to be adding a spring generation, revealing a possible shift from vagrant to resident. Our results emphasise the importance of evaluating phenological changes throughout species' flight period and understanding the consequences for such climate-related changes on viability or population dynamics.

Decoupling the effects of food and density on life-history plasticity of wild animals using field experiments: Insights from the steward who sits in the shadow of its tail, the North American red squirrel

Long-term studies of wild animals provide the opportunity to investigate how phenotypic plasticity is used to cope with environmental fluctuations and how the relationships between phenotypes and fitness can be dependent upon the ecological context. Many previous studies have only investigated life-history plasticity in response to changes in temperature, yet wild animals often experience multiple environmental fluctuations simultaneously. This requires field experiments to decouple which ecological factor induces plasticity in fitness-relevant traits to better understand their population-level responses to those environmental fluctuations. For the past 32 years, we have conducted a long-term integrative study of individually marked North American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus Erxleben in the Yukon, Canada. We have used multi-year field experiments to examine the physiological and life-history responses of individual red squirrels to fluctuations in food abundance and conspecific density. Our long-term observational study and field experiments show that squirrels can anticipate increases in food availability and density, thereby decoupling the usual pattern where animals respond to, rather than anticipate, an ecological change. As in many other study systems, ecological factors that can induce plasticity (such as food and density) covary. However, our field experiments that manipulate food availability and social cues of density (frequency of territorial vocalizations) indicate that increases in social (acoustic) cues of density in the absence of additional food can induce similar life-history plasticity, as does experimental food supplementation. Changes in the levels of metabolic hormones (glucocorticoids) in response to variation in food and density are one mechanism that seems to induce this adaptive life-history plasticity. Although we have not yet investigated the energetic response of squirrels to elevated density or its association with life-history plasticity, energetics research in red squirrels has overturned several standard pillars of knowledge in physiological ecology. We show how a tractable model species combined with integrative studies can reveal how animals cope with resource fluctuations through life-history plasticity.

Phenotypic Responses, Reproduction Mode and Epigenetic Patterns under Temperature Treatments in the Alpine Plant Species Ranunculus kuepferi (Ranunculaceae)

Plant life in alpine habitats is shaped by harsh abiotic conditions and cold climates. Phenotypic variation of morphological characters and reproduction can be influenced by temperature stress. Nevertheless, little is known about the performance of different cytotypes under cold stress and how epigenetic patterns could relate to phenotypic variation. Ranunculus kuepferi, a perennial alpine plant, served as a model system for testing the effect of cold stress on phenotypic plasticity, reproduction mode, and epigenetic variation. Diploid and autotetraploid individuals were placed in climate growth cabinets under warm and cold conditions. Morphological traits (height, leaves and flowers) and the proportion of well-developed seeds were measured as fitness indicators, while flow cytometric seed screening (FCSS) was utilized to determine the reproduction mode. Subsequently, comparisons with patterns of methylation-sensitive amplified fragment-length polymorphisms (AFLPs) were conducted. Diploids grew better under warm conditions, while tetraploids performed better in cold treatments. Epigenetic patterns were correlated with the expressed morphological traits. Cold stress reduced the reproduction fitness but did not induce apomixis in diploids. Overall, our study underlines the potential of phenotypic plasticity for acclimation under environmental conditions and confirms the different niche preferences of cytotypes in natural populations. Results help to understand the pattern of geographical parthenogenesis in the species.

Environmental fluctuations can promote evolutionary rescue in high-extinction-risk scenarios

Substantial environmental change can force a population onto a path towards extinction, but under some conditions, adaptation by natural selection can rescue the population and allow it to persist. This process, known as evolutionary rescue, is believed to be less likely to occur with greater magnitudes of random environmental fluctuations because environmental variation decreases expected population size, increases variance in population size and increases evolutionary lag. However, previous studies of evolutionary rescue in fluctuating environments have only considered scenarios in which evolutionary rescue was likely to occur. We extend these studies to assess how baseline extinction risk (which we manipulated via changes in the initial population size, degree of environmental change or mutation rate) influences the effects of environmental variation on evolutionary rescue following an abrupt environmental change. Using a combination of analytical models and stochastic simulations, we show that autocorrelated environmental variation hinders evolutionary rescue in low-extinction-risk scenarios but facilitates rescue in high-risk scenarios. In these high-risk cases, the chance of a run of good years counteracts the otherwise negative effects of environmental variation on evolutionary demography. These findings can inform the development of effective conservation practices that consider evolutionary responses to abrupt environmental changes.

Evolutionary tracking is determined by differential selection on demographic rates and density dependence

Recent ecological forecasts predict that ~25% of species worldwide will go extinct by 2050. However, these estimates are primarily based on environmental changes alone and fail to incorporate important biological mechanisms such as genetic adaptation via evolution. Thus, environmental change can affect population dynamics in ways that classical frameworks can neither describe nor predict. Furthermore, often due to a lack of data, forecasting models commonly describe changes in population demography by summarizing changes in fecundity and survival concurrently with the intrinsic growth rate (r). This has been shown to be an oversimplification as the environment may impose selective pressure on specific demographic rates (birth and death) rather than directly on r (the difference between the birth and death rates). This differential pressure may alter population response to density, in each demographic rate, further diluting the information combined to produce r. Thus, when we consider the potential for persistence via adaptive evolution, populations with the same r can have different abilities to persist amidst environmental change. Therefore, we cannot adequately forecast population response to climate change without accounting for demography and selection on density dependence. Using a continuous-time Markov chain model to describe the stochastic dynamics of the logistic model of population growth and allow for trait evolution via mutations arising during birth events, we find persistence via evolutionary tracking more likely when environmental change alters birth rather than the death rate. Furthermore, species that evolve responses to changes in the strength of density dependence due to environmental change are less vulnerable to extinction than species that undergo selection independent of population density. By incorporating these key demographic considerations into our predictive models, we can better understand how species will respond to climate change.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

Offspring diet supersedes the transgenerational effects of parental diet in a specialist herbivore Neolema abbreviata under manipulated foliar nitrogen variability

Diet quality influences organismal fitness within and across generations. For herbivorous insects, the transgenerational effects of diet remain relatively underexplored. Using a 3 × 3 × 2 factorial experiment, we evaluated how N enrichment in parental diets of Neolema abbreviata (Larcordaire) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), a biological control agent for Tradescantia fluminensis Vell. (Commelinaceae), may influence life history and performance of F₁ and F₂ offspring under reciprocal experiments. We found limited transgenerational effects of foliar nitrogen variability among life-history traits in both larvae and adults. Larval weight gain and mortality were responsive to parental diet contrary to feeding damage, pupal weight and duration taken to pupate. There were significant parental diet × test interactions in larval feeding damage, weight gain, pupal weight and time to pupation. Generally, offspring from parents under high N plants performed better even under low N test plants. Adult traits including oviposition selection, feeding weight and longevity did not respond to the effects of parental diet nor its interaction with test diet as was the case in the larval stage. However, the main effects of test diet were more important in determining adult performance in both generations suggesting limited sensitivity to parental diet in the adult stage. Our results show conflicting responses to parental diet between larvae and adults of the same generation among an insect species with both actively feeding larval and adult life stages. These transgenerational effects, or lack thereof, may have implications on the field performance of N. abbrevita under heterogeneous nutritional landscapes.

Influence of density and salinity on larval development of salt-adapted and salt-naïve frog populations

Environmental change and habitat fragmentation will affect population densities for many species. For those species that have locally adapted to persist in changed or stressful habitats, it is uncertain how density dependence will affect adaptive responses. Anurans (frogs and toads) are typically freshwater organisms, but some coastal populations of green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) have adapted to brackish, coastal wetlands. Tadpoles from coastal populations metamorphose sooner and demonstrate faster growth rates than inland populations when reared solitarily. Although saltwater exposure has adaptively reduced the duration of the larval period for coastal populations, increases in densities during larval development typically increase time to metamorphosis and reduce rates of growth and survival. We test how combined stressors of density and salinity affect larval development between salt-adapted ("coastal") and nonsalt-adapted ("inland") populations by measuring various developmental and metamorphic phenotypes. We found that increased tadpole density strongly affected coastal and inland tadpole populations similarly. In high-density treatments, both coastal and inland populations had reduced growth rates, greater exponential decay of growth, a smaller size at metamorphosis, took longer to reach metamorphosis, and had lower survivorship at metamorphosis. Salinity only exaggerated the effects of density on the time to reach metamorphosis and exponential decay of growth. Location of origin affected length at metamorphosis, with coastal tadpoles metamorphosing slightly longer than inland tadpoles across densities and salinities. These findings confirm that density has a strong and central influence on larval development even across divergent populations and habitat types and may mitigate the expression (and therefore detection) of locally adapted phenotypes.

Adaptation to climate change through genetic accommodation and assimilation of plastic phenotypes

Theory suggests that evolutionary changes in phenotypic plasticity could either hinder or facilitate evolutionary rescue in a changing climate. Nevertheless, the actual role of evolving plasticity in the responses of natural populations to climate change remains unresolved. Direct observations of evolutionary change in nature are rare, making it difficult to assess the relative contributions of changes in trait means versus changes in plasticity to climate change responses. To address this gap, this review explores several proxies that can be used to understand evolving plasticity in the context of climate change, including space for time substitutions, experimental evolution and tests for genomic divergence at environmentally responsive loci. Comparisons among populations indicate a prominent role for divergence in environmentally responsive traits in local adaptation to climatic gradients. Moreover, genomic comparisons among such populations have identified pervasive divergence in the regulatory regions of environmentally responsive loci. Taken together, these lines of evidence suggest that divergence in plasticity plays a prominent role in adaptation to climatic gradients over space, indicating that evolving plasticity is also likely to play a key role in adaptive responses to climate change through time. This suggests that genetic variation in plastic responses to the environment (G × E) might be an important predictor of species' vulnerabilities to climate-driven decline or extinction. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. XVII. Response to climate change

The world is changing at a rapid rate, threatening extinction for a large part of the world's biota. One potential response to those altered conditions is to evolve so as to be able to persist in place. Such evolution includes not just traits themselves, but also the phenotypic plasticity of those traits. We used individual-based simulations to explore the potential of an evolving phenotypic plasticity to increase the probability of persistence in the response to either a step change or continual, directional change in the environment accompanied by within-generation random environmental fluctuations. Populations could evolve by altering both their nonplastic and plastic genetic components. We found that phenotypic plasticity enhanced survival and adaptation if that plasticity was not costly. If plasticity was costly, for it to be beneficial the phenotypic magnitude of plasticity had to be great enough in the initial generations to overcome those costs. These results were not sensitive to either the magnitude of the within-generation correlation between the environment of development and the environment of selection or the magnitude of the environmental fluctuations, except for very small phenotypic magnitudes of plasticity. So, phenotypic plasticity has the potential to enhance survival; however, more data are needed on the ubiquity of trait plasticity, the extent of costs of plasticity, and the rate of mutational input of genetic variation for plasticity.

Eco-evolutionary processes underlying early warning signals of population declines

Environmental change can impact the stability of ecological systems and cause rapid declines in populations. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede such declines, but detection prior to wild population collapses has had limited success, leading to the development of warning signals based on shifts in distribution of fitness-related traits such as body size. The dynamics of population abundances and traits in response to external environmental perturbations are controlled by a range of underlying factors such as reproductive rate, genetic variation and plasticity. However, it remains unknown how such ecological and evolutionary factors affect the stability landscape of populations and the detectability of abundance and trait-based early warning signals. Here, we apply a trait-based demographic approach and investigate both trait and population dynamics in response to gradual and increasing changes in the environment. We explore a range of ecological and evolutionary constraints under which stability of a population may be affected. We show both analytically and with simulations that strength of abundance- and trait-based warning signals are affected by ecological and evolutionary factors. Finally, we show that combining trait- and abundance-based information improves our ability to predict population declines. Our study suggests that the inclusion of trait dynamic information alongside generic warning signals should provide more accurate forecasts of the future state of biological systems.

Genomics of Developmental Plasticity in Animals

Developmental plasticity refers to the property by which the same genotype produces distinct phenotypes depending on the environmental conditions under which development takes place. By allowing organisms to produce phenotypes adjusted to the conditions that adults will experience, developmental plasticity can provide the means to cope with environmental heterogeneity. Developmental plasticity can be adaptive and its evolution can be shaped by natural selection. It has also been suggested that developmental plasticity can facilitate adaptation and promote diversification. Here, we summarize current knowledge on the evolution of plasticity and on the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution, and we identify recent advances and important open questions about the genomics of developmental plasticity in animals. We give special attention to studies using transcriptomics to identify genes whose expression changes across developmental environments and studies using genetic mapping to identify loci that contribute to variation in plasticity and can fuel its evolution.

Adaptation to local climate in multi-trait space: evidence from silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations across a heterogeneous environment

Heterogeneous environments, such as mountainous landscapes, create spatially varying selection pressure that potentially affects several traits simultaneously across different life stages, yet little is known about the general patterns and drivers of adaptation in such complex settings. We studied silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations across Switzerland and characterized its mountainous landscape using downscaled historical climate data. We sampled 387 trees from 19 populations and genotyped them at 374 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to estimate their demographic distances. Seedling morphology, growth and phenology traits were recorded in a common garden, and a proxy for water use efficiency was estimated for adult trees. We tested whether populations have more strongly diverged at quantitative traits than expected based on genetic drift alone in a multi-trait framework, and identified potential environmental drivers of selection. We found two main responses to selection: (i) populations from warmer and more thermally stable locations have evolved towards a taller stature, and (ii) the growth timing of populations evolved towards two extreme strategies, 'start early and grow slowly' or 'start late and grow fast', driven by precipitation seasonality. Populations following the 'start early and grow slowly' strategy had higher water use efficiency and came from inner Alpine valleys characterized by pronounced summer droughts. Our results suggest that contrasting adaptive life-history strategies exist in silver fir across different life stages (seedling to adult), and that some of the characterized populations may provide suitable seed sources for tree growth under future climatic conditions.

Parallel functional differentiation of an invasive annual plant on two continents

Rapid local adaptation frequently occurs during the spread of invading species. It remains unclear, however, how consistent, and therefore potentially predictable, such patterns of local adaptation are. One approach to this question is to measure patterns of local differentiation in functional traits and plasticity levels in invasive species in multiple regions. Finding consistent patterns of local differentiation in replicate regions suggests that these patterns are adaptive. Further, this outcome indicates that the invading species likely responds predictably to selection along environmental gradients, even though standing genetic variation is likely to have been reduced during introduction. We studied local differentiation in the invasive annual plant Erodium cicutarium in two invaded regions, California and Chile. We collected seeds from across strong gradients in precipitation and temperature in Mediterranean-climate parts of the two regions (10 populations per region). We grew seeds from maternal families from these populations through two generations and exposed the second generation to contrasting levels of water and nutrient availability. We measured growth, flowering time and leaf functional traits across these treatments to obtain trait means and plasticity measures. We found strong differentiation among populations in all traits. Plants from drier environments flowered earlier, were less plastic in flowering time and reached greater size in all treatments. Correlations among traits within regions suggested a coordinated evolutionary response along environmental gradients associated with growing season length. There was little divergence in traits and trait intercorrelations between regions, but strongly parallel divergence in traits within regions. Similar, statistically consistent patterns of local trait differentiation across two regions suggest that local adaptation to environmental gradients has aided the spread of this invasive species, and that the formation of ecotypes in newly invaded environments has been relatively consistent and predictable.

When Do Shifts in Trait Dynamics Precede Population Declines?

Predicting population responses to environmental change is an ongoing challenge in ecology. Studies investigating the links between fitness-related phenotypic traits and demography have shown that trait dynamic responses to environmental change can sometimes precede population dynamic responses and thus can be used as an early warning signal. However, it is still unknown under which ecological and evolutionary circumstances shifts in fitness-related traits can precede population responses to environmental perturbation. Here, we take a trait-based demographic approach and investigate both trait and population dynamics in a density-regulated population in response to a gradual change in the environment. We explore the ecological and evolutionary constraints under which shifts in fitness-related traits precede a decline in population size. We show both analytically and with experimental data that under medium to slow rates of environmental change, shifts in a trait value can precede population decline. We further show the positive influence of environmental predictability, net reproductive rate, plasticity, and genetic variation on shifts in trait dynamics preceding potential population declines. These results still hold under nonconstant genetic variation and environmental stochasticity. Our study highlights ecological and evolutionary circumstances under which a fitness-related trait can be used as an early warning signal of an impending population decline.

Beyond buying time: the role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change

How populations and species respond to modified environmental conditions is critical to their persistence both now and into the future, particularly given the increasing pace of environmental change. The process of adaptation to novel environmental conditions can occur via two mechanisms: (1) the expression of phenotypic plasticity (the ability of one genotype to express varying phenotypes when exposed to different environmental conditions), and (2) evolution via selection for particular phenotypes, resulting in the modification of genetic variation in the population. Plasticity, because it acts at the level of the individual, is often hailed as a rapid-response mechanism that will enable organisms to adapt and survive in our rapidly changing world. But plasticity can also retard adaptation by shifting the distribution of phenotypes in the population, shielding it from natural selection. In addition to which, not all plastic responses are adaptive-now well-documented in cases of ecological traps. In this theme issue, we aim to present a considered view of plasticity and the role it could play in facilitating or hindering adaption to environmental change. This introduction provides a re-examination of our current understanding of the role of phenotypic plasticity in adaptation and sets the theme issue's contributions in their broader context. Four key themes emerge: the need to measure plasticity across both space and time; the importance of the past in predicting the future; the importance of the link between plasticity and sexual selection; and the need to understand more about the nature of selection on plasticity itself. We conclude by advocating the need for cross-disciplinary collaborations to settle the question of whether plasticity will promote or retard species' rates of adaptation to ever-more stressful environmental conditions. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

How adaptive plasticity evolves when selected against

Adaptive plasticity allows organisms to cope with environmental change, thereby increasing the population's long-term fitness. However, individual selection can only compare the fitness of individuals within each generation: if the environment changes more slowly than the generation time (i.e., a coarse-grained environment) a population will not experience selection for plasticity even if it is adaptive in the long-term. How does adaptive plasticity then evolve? One explanation is that, if competing alleles conferring different degrees of plasticity persist across multiple environments, natural selection between genetic lineages could select for adaptive plasticity (lineage selection). We show that adaptive plasticity can evolve even in the absence of such lineage selection. Instead, we propose that adaptive plasticity in coarse-grained environments evolves as a by-product of inefficient short-term natural selection: populations that rapidly evolve their phenotypes in response to selective pressures follow short-term optima, with the result that they have reduced long-term fitness across environments. Conversely, populations that accumulate limited genetic change within each environment evolve long-term adaptive plasticity even when plasticity incurs short-term costs. These results remain qualitatively similar regardless of whether we decrease the efficiency of natural selection by increasing the rate of environmental change or decreasing mutation rate, demonstrating that both factors act via the same mechanism. We demonstrate how this mechanism can be understood through the concept of learning rate. Our work shows how plastic responses that are costly in the short term, yet adaptive in the long term, can evolve as a by-product of inefficient short-term selection, without selection for plasticity at either the individual or lineage level.

Mate choice in a changing world

Human activities by altering environmental conditions are influencing the mate choice of animals. This is by impacts on: (i) the production and expression of traits evaluated by mate choosers; (ii) the transmission of information about potential mates to choosers; (iii) the reception and processing of the information by choosers; and (iv) the final mate choice. Here, I first discuss how these four stages of the mate-choice process can be altered by environmental change, and how these alterations, in turn, can influence individuals, populations, and communities. Much evidence exists for human-induced environmental changes influencing mate choice, but the consequences for the fitness of courters and choosers are less well known, and even less is known about the impact on population dynamics, species interactions and community composition. More evidence exists for altered mate-choice systems influencing interspecific matings and thereby community composition and biodiversity. I then consider whether plastic adjustments and evolutionary changes can rescue adaptive mate-choice systems, and reflect on the possibility of non-adaptive mate-choice systems becoming less maladaptive under environmental change. Much evidence exists for plastic adjustments of mate-choice systems, but whether these are adaptive is seldom known, as is the contribution of genetic changes. Finally, I contemplate the possibility of mate-choice systems rescuing populations from decline in changing environments. I explain how this is context dependent with both positive and negative outcomes possible. In summary, while much evidence exists for human-induced environmental changes influencing mate-choice systems, less is known about the consequences for ecological and evolutionary processes. Considering the importance that mate choice plays in determining individual fitness and population viability, the effects of environmental change on mate-choice systems should be considered in studies on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of human disturbances to habitats.

Bioclimatic modeling in the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene and facing future climatic changes in the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.)

Increasing forest wildfires in Portugal remain a growing concern since forests in the Mediterranean region are vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation. Therefore, a long-term negative effect is expected on the vegetation, with increasing drought and areas burnt by fires. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is particularly used in Portugal to produce a spirit by processing its fruits and is the main income for forestry owners. Other applications are possible due to the fruit and leaves’ anti-oxidant properties and bioactive compounds production, with a potential for clinical and food uses. It is a sclerophyllous plant, dry-adapted and fire resistant, enduring the Mediterranean climate, and recently considered as a possibility for afforestation, to intensify forest discontinuity where pines and eucalypts monoculture dominate the region. To improve our knowledge about the species’ spatial distribution we used 318 plots (the centroid of a 1 km² square grid) measuring the species presence and nine environmental attributes. The seven bioclimatic variables most impacting on the species distribution and two topographic features, slope and altitude, were used. The past, current and future climate data were obtained through WorldClim. Finally, the vulnerability of the strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined in the face of two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to predict distribution changes in the years 2050 and 2070, using a species distribution models (MaxEnt). The reduction of suitable habitat for this species is significant in the southern regions, considering the future scenarios of global warming. Central and northern mountainous regions are putative predicted refuges for this species. Forest policy and management should reflect the impact of climate change on the usable areas for forestry, particularly considering species adapted to the Mediterranean regions and wildfires, such as the strawberry tree. The distribution of the species in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) agrees with previous genetic and paleontological studies in the region, which support putative refuges for the species. Two in the southern and coastal-central regions, since the LGM, and one in the east-central mountainous region, considered as cryptic refugia.

Tolerance to climate change of the clonally reproducing endemic Baltic seaweed, Fucus radicans: is phenotypic plasticity enough?

To predict the effects of climate change, we first need information on both the current tolerance ranges of species and their future adaptive potential. Adaptive responses may originate either in genetic variation or in phenotypic plasticity, but the relative importance of these factors is poorly understood. Here, we tested the tolerance of Fucus radicans to the combination of hyposalinity and warming projected by climate models for 2070-2099. We measured the growth and survival responses of thalli in both current and future conditions, focusing on variations in tolerance among and within different clonal lineages. Survival was 32% lower in future than in current conditions, but the weight and length of the thalli which survived was respectively 267% and 178% higher when exposed to future conditions. The relatively high tolerance to the future conditions suggests that F. radicans is likely to persist in its current distributional range, which is limited to the Gulf of Bothia and Estonian coast in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, this species may be able to expand its distribution southward and replace its congener F. vesiculosus, which, in previous studies, has not tolerated the future conditions as well. In addition, we discovered variation in tolerance to future conditions within one of the clonal lineages, which have been hitherto presumed to lack adaptive variation. The discovery of intra-clonal phenotypic plasticity means that this alga has the potential for adaptive responses to climate change, which may be the key to the future persistence of F. radicans in the Baltic Sea.

Mechanisms of Plastic Rescue in Novel Environments

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity provides a mechanism of developmental rescue in novel and rapidly changing environments. Understanding the underlying mechanism of plasticity is important for predicting both the likelihood that a developmental response is adaptive and associated life-history trade-offs that could influence patterns of subsequent evolutionary rescue. Although evolved developmental switches may move organisms toward a new adaptive peak in a novel environment, such mechanisms often result in maladaptive responses. The induction of generalized physiological mechanisms in new environments is relatively more likely to result in adaptive responses to factors such as novel toxins, heat stress, or pathogens. Developmental selection forms of plasticity, which rely on within-individual selective processes, such as shaping of tissue architecture, trial-and-error learning, or acquired immunity, are particularly likely to result in adaptive plasticity in a novel environment. However, both the induction of plastic responses and the ability to be plastic through developmental selection come with significant costs, resulting in delays in reproduction, increased individual investment, and reduced fecundity. Thus, we might expect complex interactions between plastic responses that allow survival in novel environments and subsequent evolutionary responses at the population level.

Transcriptomic responses to extreme low salinity among locally adapted populations of Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida)

The Olympia oyster (Ostrea lurida) is a foundation species inhabiting estuaries along the North American west coast. In California estuaries, O. lurida is adapted to local salinity regimes and populations differ in low salinity tolerance. In this study, oysters from three California populations were reared for two generations in a laboratory common garden and subsequently exposed to low salinity seawater. Comparative transcriptomics was then used to understand species-level responses to hyposmotic stress and population-level mechanisms underlying divergent salinity tolerances. Gene expression patterns indicate Olympia oysters are sensitive to hyposmotic stress: All populations respond to low salinity by up-regulating transcripts indicative of protein unfolding, DNA damage and cell cycle arrest after sub-lethal exposure. Among O. lurida populations, transcriptomic profiles differed constitutively and in response to low salinity. Despite two generations in common-garden conditions, transcripts encoding apoptosis modulators were constitutively expressed at significantly different levels in the most tolerant population. Expression of cell death regulators may facilitate cell fate decisions when salinity declines. Following low salinity exposure, oysters from the more tolerant population expressed a small number of mRNAs at significantly higher levels than less tolerant populations. Proteins encoded by these transcripts regulate ciliary activity within the mantle cavity and may function to prolong valve closure and reduce mortality in low salinity seawater. Collectively, gene expression patterns suggest sub-lethal impacts of hyposmotic stress in Olympia oysters are considerable and that even oysters with greater low salinity tolerance may be vulnerable to future freshwater flooding events.

Direct and indirect effects of chemical contaminants on the behaviour, ecology and evolution of wildlife

Chemical contaminants (e.g. metals, pesticides, pharmaceuticals) are changing ecosystems via effects on wildlife. Indeed, recent work explicitly performed under environmentally realistic conditions reveals that chemical contaminants can have both direct and indirect effects at multiple levels of organization by influencing animal behaviour. Altered behaviour reflects multiple physiological changes and links individual- to population-level processes, thereby representing a sensitive tool for holistically assessing impacts of environmentally relevant contaminant concentrations. Here, we show that even if direct effects of contaminants on behavioural responses are reasonably well documented, there are significant knowledge gaps in understanding both the plasticity (i.e. individual variation) and evolution of contaminant-induced behavioural changes. We explore implications of multi-level processes by developing a conceptual framework that integrates direct and indirect effects on behaviour under environmentally realistic contexts. Our framework illustrates how sublethal behavioural effects of contaminants can be both negative and positive, varying dynamically within the same individuals and populations. This is because linkages within communities will act indirectly to alter and even magnify contaminant-induced effects. Given the increasing pressure on wildlife and ecosystems from chemical pollution, we argue there is a need to incorporate existing knowledge in ecology and evolution to improve ecological hazard and risk assessments.

Changing environmental gradients over forty years alter ecomorphological variation in Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout a river basin

Understanding the degree of intraspecific variation within and among populations is a key aspect of predicting the capacity of a species to respond to anthropogenic disturbances. However, intraspecific variation is usually assessed at either limited temporal, but broad spatial scales or vice versa, which can make assessing changes in response to long-term disturbances challenging. We evaluated the relationship between the longitudinal gradient of changing flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns since 1980 and morphological variation of Guadalupe Bass Micropterus treculii throughout the Colorado River Basin of central Texas. The Colorado River Basin in Texas has experienced major alterations to the hydrologic regime due to changing land- and water-use patterns. Historical collections of Guadalupe Bass prior to rapid human-induced change present the unique opportunity to study the response of populations to varying environmental conditions through space and time. Morphological differentiation of Guadalupe Bass associated with temporal changes in flow regimes and land use/land cover patterns suggests that they are exhibiting intraspecific trait variability, with contemporary individuals showing increased body depth, in response to environmental alteration through time (specifically related to an increase in herbaceous land cover, maximum flows, and the number of low pulses and high pulses). Additionally, individuals from tributaries with increased hydrologic alteration associated with urbanization or agricultural withdrawals tended to have a greater distance between the anal and caudal fin. These results reveal trait variation that may help to buffer populations under conditions of increased urbanization and sprawl, human population growth, and climate risk, all of which impose novel selective pressures, especially on endemic species like Guadalupe Bass. Our results contribute an understanding of the adaptability and capacity of an endemic population to respond to expected future changes based on demographic or climatic projection.

Is the sky the limit? On the expansion threshold of a species' range

More than 100 years after Grigg's influential analysis of species' borders, the causes of limits to species' ranges still represent a puzzle that has never been understood with clarity. The topic has become especially important recently as many scientists have become interested in the potential for species' ranges to shift in response to climate change-and yet nearly all of those studies fail to recognise or incorporate evolutionary genetics in a way that relates to theoretical developments. I show that range margins can be understood based on just two measurable parameters: (i) the fitness cost of dispersal-a measure of environmental heterogeneity-and (ii) the strength of genetic drift, which reduces genetic diversity. Together, these two parameters define an 'expansion threshold': adaptation fails when genetic drift reduces genetic diversity below that required for adaptation to a heterogeneous environment. When the key parameters drop below this expansion threshold locally, a sharp range margin forms. When they drop below this threshold throughout the species' range, adaptation collapses everywhere, resulting in either extinction or formation of a fragmented metapopulation. Because the effects of dispersal differ fundamentally with dimension, the second parameter-the strength of genetic drift-is qualitatively different compared to a linear habitat. In two-dimensional habitats, genetic drift becomes effectively independent of selection. It decreases with 'neighbourhood size'-the number of individuals accessible by dispersal within one generation. Moreover, in contrast to earlier predictions, which neglected evolution of genetic variance and/or stochasticity in two dimensions, dispersal into small marginal populations aids adaptation. This is because the reduction of both genetic and demographic stochasticity has a stronger effect than the cost of dispersal through increased maladaptation. The expansion threshold thus provides a novel, theoretically justified, and testable prediction for formation of the range margin and collapse of the species' range.

Integrated drought responses of black poplar: how important is phenotypic plasticity?

Climate change is expected to increase drought frequency and intensity which will threaten plant growth and survival. In such fluctuating environments, perennial plants respond with hydraulic and biomass adjustments, resulting in either tolerant or avoidant strategies. Plants' response to stress relies on their phenotypic plasticity. The goal of this study was to explore physiology of young Populus nigra in the context of a time-limited and progressive water deficit in regard to their growth and stress response strategies. Fourteen French 1-year-old black poplar genotypes, geographically contrasted, were subjected to withholding water during 8 days until severe water stress. Water fluxes (i.e. leaf water potentials and stomatal conductance) were analyzed together with growth (i.e. radial and longitudinal branch growth, leaf senescence and leaf production). Phenotypic plasticity was calculated for each trait and response strategies to drought were deciphered for each genotype. Black poplar genotypes permanently were dealing with a continuum of adjusted water fluxes and growth between two extreme strategies, tolerance and avoidance. Branch growth, leaf number and leaf hydraulic potential traits had contrasted plasticities, allowing genotype characterization. The most tolerant genotype to water deficit, which maintained growth, had the lowest global phenotypic plasticity. Conversely, the most sensitive and avoidant genotype ceased growth until the season's end, had the highest plasticity level. All the remaining black poplar genotypes were close to avoidance with average levels of traits plasticity. These results underpinned the role of plasticity in black poplar response to drought and calls for its wider use into research on plants' responses to stress.

Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species' abundance and distribution.

Global change scenarios trigger carry-over effects across life stages and generations of the intertidal limpet, Siphonaria australis

For organisms with complex life histories, carry-over effects (COEs) can manifest between life stages, when conditions experienced by one stage influence the next, as well as trans-generationally, when the parental environment affects offspring. Here we used multiple global change-associated stressors to examine both forms of COE simultaneously in an intertidal limpet with mixed development (i.e. planktonic larvae hatch from benthic egg masses). Adult Siphonaria australis were subjected to four treatments over four weeks: an ambient control, a treatment featuring elevated water temperature (25°C) and UVB (1.7 W m^-2), a copper pollution treatment (5.0 μg L^-1), and a treatment incorporating all three stressors. Egg masses laid by these adults were then redistributed among the same four treatments (producing 16 adult-to-egg treatment histories) and stressed until hatching. Finally, hatching larvae were reared under ambient conditions for 24 days. While adult survivorship was unaffected by treatment, embryonic viability in egg masses responded strongly to egg mass treatment, as well as parental stress exposure, therefore displaying trans-generational COEs. These trans-generational COEs interacted with COEs originating in egg masses to produce highly context-dependent hatching sizes and larval growth. This demonstrates that the performance of a given organism at a given time reflects not only conditions experienced during embryonic development, but also those of the parental generation, and suggests that COEs play an important but underestimated role in responses to global change scenarios.

Evolutionary Rescue over a Fitness Landscape

Evolutionary rescue describes a situation where adaptive evolution prevents the extinction of a population facing a stressing environment. Models of evolutionary rescue could in principle be used to predict the level of stress beyond which extinction becomes likely for species of conservation concern, or, conversely, the treatment levels most likely to limit the emergence of resistant pests or pathogens. Stress levels are known to affect both the rate of population decline (demographic effect) and the speed of adaptation (evolutionary effect), but the latter aspect has received less attention. Here, we address this issue using Fisher's geometric model of adaptation. In this model, the fitness effects of mutations depend both on the genotype and the environment in which they arise. In particular, the model introduces a dependence between the level of stress, the proportion of rescue mutants, and their costs before the onset of stress. We obtain analytic results under a strong-selection-weak-mutation regime, which we compare to simulations. We show that the effect of the environment on evolutionary rescue can be summarized into a single composite parameter quantifying the effective stress level, which is amenable to empirical measurement. We describe a narrow characteristic stress window over which the rescue probability drops from very likely to very unlikely as the level of stress increases. This drop is sharper than in previous models, as a result of the decreasing proportion of stress-resistant mutations as stress increases. We discuss how to test these predictions with rescue experiments across gradients of stress.

Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments

Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution may help evolutionary rescue in a novel and stressful environment, especially if environmental novelty reveals cryptic genetic variation that enables the evolution of increased plasticity. However, the environmental stochasticity ubiquitous in natural systems may alter these predictions, because high plasticity may amplify phenotype-environment mismatches. Although previous studies have highlighted this potential detrimental effect of plasticity in stochastic environments, they have not investigated how it affects extinction risk in the context of evolutionary rescue and with evolving plasticity. We investigate this question here by integrating stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory in a model with simultaneous change in the mean and predictability (temporal autocorrelation) of the environment. We develop an approximate prediction of long-term persistence under the new pattern of environmental fluctuations, and compare it with numerical simulations for short- and long-term extinction risk. We find that reduced predictability increases extinction risk and reduces persistence because it increases stochastic load during rescue. This understanding of how stochastic demography, phenotypic plasticity, and evolution interact when evolution acts on cryptic genetic variation revealed in a novel environment can inform expectations for invasions, extinctions, or the emergence of chemical resistance in pests.

Stochastic Evolutionary Demography under a Fluctuating Optimum Phenotype

Many natural populations exhibit temporal fluctuations in abundance that are consistent with external forcing by a randomly changing environment. As fitness emerges from an interaction between the phenotype and the environment, such demographic fluctuations probably include a substantial contribution from fluctuating phenotypic selection. We study the stochastic population dynamics of a population exposed to random (plus possibly directional) changes in the optimum phenotype for a quantitative trait that evolves in response to this moving optimum. We derive simple analytical predictions for the distribution of log population size over time both transiently and at stationarity under Gompertz density regulation. These predictions are well matched by population- and individual-based simulations. The log population size is approximately reverse gamma distributed, with a negative skew causing an excess of low relative to high population sizes, thus increasing extinction risk relative to a symmetric (e.g., normal) distribution with the same mean and variance. Our analysis reveals how the mean and variance of log population size change with the variance and autocorrelation of deviations of the evolving mean phenotype from the optimum. We apply our results to the analysis of evolutionary rescue in a stochastic environment and show that random fluctuations in the optimum can substantially increase extinction risk by both reducing the expected growth rate and increasing the variance of population size by several orders of magnitude.

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. XV. Genetic assimilation, the Baldwin effect, and evolutionary rescue

We used an individual-based simulation model to examine the role of phenotypic plasticity on persistence and adaptation to two patterns of environmental variation, a single, abrupt step change and continual, linear change. Our model tested the assumptions and predictions of the theory of genetic assimilation, explored the evolutionary dynamics of the Baldwin effect, and provided expectations for the evolutionary response to climate change. We found that genetic assimilation as originally postulated is not likely to occur because the replacement of plasticity by fixed genetic effects takes much longer than the environment is likely to remain stable. On the other hand, trait plasticity as an enhancement to continual evolutionary change may be an important evolutionary mechanism as long as plasticity has little or no costs. Whether or not plasticity helps or hinders evolutionary rescue following a step change in the environment depends on whether plasticity is costly. For linear environmental change, noncostly plasticity always decreases extinction rates, while costly plasticity can create a fitness drag and increase the chance of extinction. Thus, with changing climates plasticity can enhance adaptation and prevent extinction under some conditions, but not others.

Epigenetics in natural animal populations

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to buffer themselves from environmental change. While it has long been appreciated that natural populations possess genetic variation in the extent of plasticity, a surge of recent evidence suggests that epigenetic variation could also play an important role in shaping phenotypic responses. Compared with genetic variation, epigenetic variation is more likely to have higher spontaneous rates of mutation and a more sensitive reaction to environmental inputs. In our review, we first provide an overview of recent studies on epigenetically encoded thermal plasticity in animals to illustrate environmentally-mediated epigenetic effects within and across generations. Second, we discuss the role of epigenetic effects during adaptation by exploring population epigenetics in natural animal populations. Finally, we evaluate the evolutionary potential of epigenetic variation depending on its autonomy from genetic variation and its transgenerational stability. Although many of the causal links between epigenetic variation and phenotypic plasticity remain elusive, new data has explored the role of epigenetic variation in facilitating evolution in natural populations. This recent progress in ecological epigenetics will be helpful for generating predictive models of the capacity of organisms to adapt to changing climates.

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity in extreme environments

Phenotypic plasticity, if adaptive, may allow species to counter the detrimental effects of extreme conditions, but the infrequent occurrence of extreme environments and/or their restriction to low-quality habitats within a species range means that they exert little direct selection on reaction norms. Plasticity could, therefore, be maladaptive under extreme environments, unless genetic correlations are strong between extreme and non-extreme environmental states, and the optimum phenotype changes smoothly with the environment. Empirical evidence suggests that populations and species from more variable environments show higher levels of plasticity that might preadapt them to extremes, but genetic variance for plastic responses can also be low, and genetic variation may not be expressed for some classes of traits under extreme conditions. Much of the empirical literature on plastic responses to extremes has not yet been linked to ecologically relevant conditions, such as asymmetrical fluctuations in the case of temperature extremes. Nevertheless, evolved plastic responses are likely to be important for natural and agricultural species increasingly exposed to climate extremes, and there is an urgent need to collect empirical information and link this to model predictions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Genotype and local environment dynamically influence growth, disturbance response and survivorship in the threatened coral, Acropora cervicornis

The relationship between the coral genotype and the environment is an important area of research in degraded coral reef ecosystems. We used a reciprocal outplanting experiment with 930 corals representing ten genotypes on each of eight reefs to investigate the influence of genotype and the environment on growth and survivorship in the threatened Caribbean staghorn coral, Acropora cervicornis. Coral genotype and site were strong drivers of coral growth and individual genotypes exhibited flexible, non-conserved reaction norms, complemented by ten-fold differences in growth between specific G-E combinations. Growth plasticity may diminish the influence of local adaptation, where foreign corals grew faster than native corals at their home sites. Novel combinations of environment and genotype also significantly affected disturbance response during and after the 2015 bleaching event, where these factors acted synergistically to drive variation in bleaching and recovery. Importantly, small differences in temperature stress elicit variable patterns of survivorship based on genotype and illustrate the importance of novel combinations of coral genetics and small differences between sites representing habitat refugia. In this context, acclimatization and flexibility is especially important given the long lifespan of corals coping with complex environmental change. The combined influence of site and genotype creates short-term differences in growth and survivorship, contributing to the standing genetic variation needed for adaptation to occur over longer timescales and the recovery of degraded reefs through natural mechanisms.

Thermal tolerance in the keystone species Daphnia magna-a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach

Changes in temperature have occurred throughout Earth's history. However, current warming trends exacerbated by human activities impose severe and rapid loss of biodiversity. Although understanding the mechanisms orchestrating organismal response to climate change is important, remarkably few studies document their role in nature. This is because only few systems enable the combined analysis of genetic and plastic responses to environmental change over long time spans. Here, we characterize genetic and plastic responses to temperature increase in the aquatic keystone grazer Daphnia magna combining a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach. We capitalize on the short generation time of our species, facilitating experimental evolution, and the production of dormant eggs enabling the analysis of long-term response to environmental change through a resurrection ecology approach. We quantify plasticity in the expression of 35 candidate genes in D. magna populations resurrected from a lake that experienced changes in average temperature over the past century and from experimental populations differing in thermal tolerance isolated from a selection experiment. By measuring expression in multiple genotypes from each of these populations in control and heat treatments, we assess plastic responses to extreme temperature events. By measuring evolutionary changes in gene expression between warm- and cold-adapted populations, we assess evolutionary response to temperature changes. Evolutionary response to temperature increase is also assessed via an outlier analysis using EST-linked microsatellite loci. This study provides the first insights into the role of plasticity and genetic adaptation in orchestrating adaptive responses to environmental change in D. magna.

Invasions and extinctions through the looking glass of evolutionary ecology

Invasive and endangered species reflect opposite ends of a spectrum of ecological success, yet they experience many similar eco-evolutionary challenges including demographic bottlenecks, hybridization and novel environments. Despite these similarities, important differences exist. Demographic bottlenecks are more transient in invasive species, which (i) maintains ecologically relevant genetic variation, (ii) reduces mutation load, and (iii) increases the efficiency of natural selection relative to genetic drift. Endangered species are less likely to benefit from admixture, which offsets mutation load but also reduces fitness when populations are locally adapted. Invading species generally experience more benign environments with fewer natural enemies, which increases fitness directly and also indirectly by masking inbreeding depression. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity can maintain fitness in novel environments but is more likely to evolve in invasive species encountering variable habitats and to be compromised by demographic factors in endangered species. Placed in an eco-evolutionary context, these differences affect the breadth of the ecological niche, which arises as an emergent property of antagonistic selection and genetic constraints. Comparative studies of invasions and extinctions that apply an eco-evolutionary perspective could provide new insights into the environmental and genetic basis of ecological success in novel environments and improve efforts to preserve global biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Potential for adaptation to climate change in a coral reef fish

Predicting the impacts of climate change requires knowledge of the potential to adapt to rising temperatures, which is unknown for most species. Adaptive potential may be especially important in tropical species that have narrow thermal ranges and live close to their thermal optimum. We used the animal model to estimate heritability, genotype by environment interactions and nongenetic maternal components of phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits in the coral reef damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus. Offspring of wild-caught breeding pairs were reared for two generations at current-day and two elevated temperature treatments (+1.5 and +3.0 °C) consistent with climate change projections. Length, weight, body condition and metabolic traits (resting and maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope) were measured at four stages of juvenile development. Additive genetic variation was low for length and weight at 0 and 15 days posthatching (dph), but increased significantly at 30 dph. By contrast, nongenetic maternal effects on length, weight and body condition were high at 0 and 15 dph and became weaker at 30 dph. Metabolic traits, including net aerobic scope, exhibited high heritability at 90 dph. Furthermore, significant genotype x environment interactions indicated potential for adaptation of maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope at higher temperatures. Net aerobic scope was negatively correlated with weight, indicating that any adaptation of metabolic traits at higher temperatures could be accompanied by a reduction in body size. Finally, estimated breeding values for metabolic traits in F2 offspring were significantly affected by the parental rearing environment. Breeding values at higher temperatures were highest for transgenerationally acclimated fish, suggesting a possible role for epigenetic mechanisms in adaptive responses of metabolic traits. These results indicate a high potential for adaptation of aerobic scope to higher temperatures, which could enable reef fish populations to maintain their performance as ocean temperatures rise.

Adaptive patterns of phenotypic plasticity in laboratory and field environments in Drosophila melanogaster

Identifying mechanisms of adaptation to variable environments is essential in developing a comprehensive understanding of evolutionary dynamics in natural populations. Phenotypic plasticity allows for phenotypic change in response to changes in the environment, and as such may play a major role in adaptation to environmental heterogeneity. Here, the plasticity of stress response in Drosophila melanogaster originating from two distinct geographic regions and ecological habitats was examined. Adults were given a short-term, 5-day exposure to combinations of temperature and photoperiod to elicit a plastic response for three fundamental aspects of stress tolerance that vary adaptively with geography. This was replicated both in the laboratory and in outdoor enclosures in the field. In the laboratory, geographic origin was the primary determinant of the stress response. Temperature and the interaction between temperature and photoperiod also significantly affected stress resistance. In the outdoor enclosures, plasticity was distinct among traits and between geographic regions. These results demonstrate that short-term exposure of adults to ecologically relevant environmental cues results in predictable effects on multiple aspects of fitness. These patterns of plasticity vary among traits and are highly distinct between the two examined geographic regions, consistent with patterns of local adaptation to climate and associated environmental parameters.

Global change, life-history complexity and the potential for evolutionary rescue

Most organisms have complex life cycles, and in marine taxa, larval life‐history stages tend to be more sensitive to environmental stress than adult (reproductive) life‐history stages. While there are several models of stage‐specific adaptation across the life history, the extent to which differential sensitivity to environmental stress (defined here as reductions in absolute fitness across the life history) affects the tempo of adaptive evolution to change remains unclear. We used a heuristic model to explore how commonly observed features associated with marine complex life histories alter a population's capacity to cope with environmental change. We found that increasing the complexity of the life history generally reduces the evolutionary potential of taxa to cope with environmental change. Our model also predicted that genetic correlations in stress tolerance between stages, levels of genetic variance in each stage, and the relative plasticity of different stages, all interact to affect the maximum rate of environmental change that will permit species persistence. Our results suggest that marine organisms with complex life cycles are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic global change, but we lack empirical estimates of key parameters for most species.

Few genetic and environmental correlations between life history and stress resistance traits affect adaptation to fluctuating thermal regimes

Laboratory selection in thermal regimes that differed in the amplitude and the predictability of daily fluctuations had a marked effect on stress resistance and life history traits in Drosophila simulans. The observed evolutionary changes are expected to be the result of both direct and correlated responses to selection. Thus, a given trait might not evolve independently from other traits because of genetic correlations among these traits. Moreover, different test environments can induce novel genetic correlations because of the activation of environmentally dependent genes. To test whether and how genetic correlations among stress resistance and life history traits constrain evolutionary adaptation, we used three populations of D. simulans selected for 20 generations in constant, predictable and unpredictable daily fluctuating thermal regimes and tested each of these selected populations in the same three thermal regimes. We explored the relationship between genetic correlations between traits and the evolutionary potential of D. simulans by comparing genetic correlation matrices in flies selected and tested in different thermal test regimes. We observed genetic correlations mainly between productivity, body size, starvation and desiccation tolerance, suggesting that adaptation to the three thermal regimes was affected by correlations between these traits. We also found that the correlations between some traits such as body size and productivity or starvation tolerance and productivity were determined by test regime rather than selection regime that is expected to limit genetic adaptation to thermal regimes in these traits. The results of this study suggest that several traits and several environments are needed to explore adaptive responses, as genetic and environmentally induced correlations between traits as results obtained in one environment cannot be used to predict the response of the same population in another environment.