Intact but empty forests? Patterns of hunting-induced mammal defaunation in the tropics

How the loss of forest fauna undermines the achievement of the SDGs

The human-driven loss of biodiversity has numerous ecological, social, and economic impacts at the local and global levels, threatening important ecological functions and jeopardizing human well-being. In this perspective, we present an overview of how tropical defaunation-defined as the disappearance of fauna as a result of anthropogenic drivers such as hunting and habitat alteration in tropical forest ecosystems-is interlinked with four selected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We discuss tropical defaunation related to nutrition and zero hunger (SDG 2), good health and well-being (SDG 3), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). We propose a range of options on how to study defaunation in future research and how to address the ongoing tropical defaunation crisis, including but not limited to recent insights from policy, conservation management, and development practice.

Fish defaunation in reservoirs of the Lower Paranapanema River basin, Brazil

Abstract Until now no study has used a defaunation index to quantify the decline of Neotropical freshwater fishes in environments fragmented by dams and reservoirs. So, we applied this index to 143 native fish in five reservoirs in the Lower Paranapanema River, that is situated in one of the Brazilian aquatic environments most impacted by anthropic degradation. Fish species were classified according to their functional groups, which were selected according to the biological characteristics that may reflect in defaunation events. The biggest reservoir in area with more tributaries and forest cover showed lowest defaunation index. The functional groups of fishes more affected by defaunation included species characterized by periphytivores, invertivores and algivores, non-migratory habit, with external fertilization, and parental care. Although reservoirs have different characteristics, this method can be tested in any other hydrographic basin. The results suggested continued conservation efforts to preserve the integrity of tributaries and the native fishes in reservoirs and pointed out the importance of maintaining native vegetation cover and fish restocking programs in the reservoirs with the highest defaunation values. Our finding can be use as the first data source for future studies using this defaunation index.

Intrinsic and extrinsic motivations governing prey choice by hunters in a post-war African forest-savannah macromosaic

Overhunting typically increases during and after armed conflicts, and may lead to regional-scale defaunation. The mitigation of hunting impacts is complex because, among other reasons, several intrinsic and extrinsic motivations underpin the elevated deployment of hunting practices. Here we present the first study focusing on these motivations in a post-war zone. Following persistently heavy hunting pressure during the 27-year Angolan civil war, the offtake of small to medium-bodied species has increased recently as a result of large mammal depletion. However, prey choice associated with different motivations varied in terms of species trophic level and body size. While most residents hunted large-bodied species to maximize revenues from wildlife trade, many low-trophic level smaller species were harvested to meet local subsistence demands because they were more palatable and could be captured using artisanal traps near hunters' households. Mainly low-trophic level species were killed in retaliation for crop-raiding or livestock depredation. Considering all game species sampled in this study, 96% were captured to attend two or more motivations. In addition, hunting associated with different motivations was partitioned in terms of age and gender, with prey acquisition for the wildlife trade primarily carried out by adult men, while hunting to meet local subsistence needs and inhibit human-wildlife conflicts were carried out by adult men and women, children and even the elderly. In natural savannah areas lacking fish as a source of protein, a higher number of species was selected to supply both the meat trade and subsistence, while more species in forest areas were targeted for trade in animal body parts and conflict retaliation. Finally, local commerce in bushmeat and other body parts accrued higher domestic revenues compared to any alternative sources of direct and indirect income. However, these financial benefits were at best modest, largely unsustainable in terms of prey population collapses, and generated high long-term costs for the local to regional scale economy and native biodiversity.

Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity—rather than of particular taxa—at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries’ rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.

Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature's contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets-the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met-should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.

Impacts of rural to urban migration, urbanization, and generational change on consumption of wild animals in the Amazon

For the first time in history, more people live in urban areas than in rural areas. This trend is likely to continue, driven largely by rural-to-urban migration. We investigated how rural-to-urban migration, urbanization, and generational change affect the consumption of wild animals. We used chelonian (tortoises and freshwater turtles), one of the most hunted taxa in the Amazon, as a model. We surveyed 1356 households and 2776 school children across 10 urban areas of the Brazilian Amazon (6 small towns, 3 large towns, and Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon Basin) with a randomized response technique and anonymous questionnaires. Urban demand for wild meat (i.e., meat from wild animals) was alarmingly high. Approximately 1.7 million turtles and tortoises were consumed in urban areas of Amazonas during 2018. Consumption rates declined as size of the urban area increased and were greater for adults than children. Furthermore, the longer rural-to-urban migrants lived in urban areas, the lower their consumption rates. These results suggest that wild meat consumption is a rural-related tradition that decreases as urbanization increases and over time after people move to urban areas. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline will be fast enough to conserve hunted species, or whether children's consumption rate will remain the same as they become adults. Thus, conservation actions in urban areas are still needed. Current conservation efforts in the Amazon do not address urban demand for wildlife and may be insufficient to ensure the survival of traded species in the face of urbanization and human population growth. Our results suggest that conservation interventions must target the urban demand for wildlife, especially by focusing on young people and recent rural to urban migrants. Article impact statement: Amazon urbanite consumption of wildlife is high but decreases with urbanization, over time for rural to urban migrants, and between generations. Impactos de la Migración del Campo a la Ciudad, la Urbanización y del Cambio Generacional sobre el Consumo de Animales Silvestres en el Amazonas.

Shifting cultivation and hunting across the savanna-forest mosaic in the Gran Sabana, Venezuela: facing changes

BACKGROUND

Human encroachment and overexploitation of natural resources in the Neotropics is constantly increasing. Indigenous communities all across the Amazon, are trapped between a population rise and a hot debate about the sustainability of hunting rates. The Garden Hunting hypothesis states that shifting cultivation schemes (conucos) used by Amazon indigenous communities may generate favorable conditions, increasing abundance of small and medium wildlife species close to the 'gardens' providing game for indigenous hunters.

METHODS

Here, we combined camera trap surveys and spatially explicit interview dataset on Pemón indigenous hunting scope and occurrence in a mosaic of savanna and forest in the Gran Sabana, Venezuela to evaluate to what extent the wildlife resource use corresponds to Garden Hunting hypothesis. We applied the Royle-Nichols model and binomial regression in order to: (1) assess whether abundance of small and medium wildlife species is higher close to conucos and (2) evaluate whether hunters select hunting localities based on accessibility to wildlife resources (closeness to conuco) more than wildlife abundance.

RESULTS

We find mixed evidence supporting the Garden Hunting hypothesis predictions. Abundance of small and medium species was high close to conucos but the pattern was not statistically significant for most of them. Pemón seem to hunt in locations dominated by forest, where species abundance was predicted to be higher, than in close vicinity to conucos. Hunting scope was focused on the most abundant species located close to the conuco (Cuniculus paca), but also in less abundant and unavailable species (Crax alector, Tapirus terrestris and Odocoileus virginianus).

CONCLUSIONS

Our research provided the first attempt of a systematic sampling survey in the Gran Sabana, generating a quantitative dataset that not only describes the current pattern of wildlife abundance, but sets the base-line to monitor temporal and spatial change in this region of highland Amazon. We discuss the applicability of the estimates generated as a baseline as well as, environmental challenges imposed by economic, social and cultural changes such as mining encroachment for wildlife management.

Understanding the distribution of bushmeat hunting effort across landscapes by testing hypotheses about human foraging

Mitigating the massive impacts of defaunation on natural ecosystems requires understanding and predicting hunting effort across the landscape. But such understanding has been hindered by the difficulty of assessing the movement patterns of hunters in thick forests and across complex terrain. We statistically tested hypotheses about the spatial distribution of hunting with circuit theory and structural equation models. We used a data set of >7000 known kill locations in Guyana and hunter movement models to test these methods. Comparing models with different resistance layers (i.e., different estimates of how terrain and land cover influence human movement speed) showed that rivers, on average, limited movement rather than serving as transport arteries. Moreover, far more kills occurred close to villages than in remote areas. This, combined with the lack of support for structural equation models that included latent terms for prey depletion driven by past overhunting, suggests that kill locations in this system tended to be driven by where hunters were currently foraging rather than by influences of historical harvest. These analyses are generalizable to a variety of ecosystems, species, and data types, providing a powerful way of enhancing maps and predictions of hunting effort across complex landscapes.

Projecting the potential distribution of ticks in China under climate and land use change

Ticks are known as vectors of several pathogens causing various human and animal diseases including Lyme borreliosis, tick-borne encephalitis, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. While China is known to have more than 100 tick species well distributed over the country, our knowledge on the likely distribution of ticks in the future remains very limited, which hinders the prevention and control of the risk of tick-borne diseases. In this study, we selected four representative tick species which have different regional distribution foci in mainland China. i.e., Dermacentor marginatus, Dermacentor silvarum, Haemaphysalis longicornis and Ixodes granulatus. We used the MaxEnt model to identify the key environmental factors of tick occurrence and map their potential distributions in 2050 under four combined climate and socioeconomic scenarios (i.e., SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5). We found that the extent of the urban fabric, cropland and forest, temperature annual range and precipitation of the driest month were the main determinants of the potential distributions of the four tick species. Under the combined scenarios, with climate warming, the potential distributions of ticks shifted to further north in China. Due to a decrease in the extent of forest, the distribution probability of ticks declined in central and southern China. In contrast with previous findings on an estimated amplification of tick distribution probability under the extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5), our studies projected an overall reduction in the distribution probability under RCP8.5, owing to an expected effect of land use. Our results could provide new data to help identify the emerging risk areas, with amplifying suitability for tick occurrence, for the prevention and control of tick-borne zoonoses in mainland China. Future directions are suggested towards improved quantity and quality of the tick occurrence database, comprehensiveness of factors and integration of different modelling approaches, and capability to model pathogen spillover at the human-tick interface.

Habitat destruction and overexploitation drive widespread declines in all facets of mammalian diversity in the Gran Chaco

Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexploitation. We provide the first long-term assessment of multifaceted biodiversity changes caused by these threats for any tropical region. Focussing on larger mammals in South America's 1.1 million km² Gran Chaco region, we assessed changes in multiple biodiversity facets between 1985 and 2015, determined which threats drive those changes, and identified remaining key areas for all biodiversity facets. Using habitat and threat maps, we found, first, that between 1985 and 2015 taxonomic (TD), phylogenetic (PD) and functional (FD) diversity all declined drastically across over half of the area assessed. FD declined about 50% faster than TD and PD, and these declines were mainly driven by species loss, rather than species turnover. Second, habitat destruction, hunting, and both threats together contributed ~57%, ~37%, and ~6% to overall facet declines, respectively. However, hunting pressure increased where TD and PD declined most strongly, whereas habitat destruction disproportionally contributed to FD declines. Third, just 23% of the Chaco would have to be protected to safeguard the top 17% of all three facets. Our findings uncover a widespread impoverishment of mammal species richness, evolutionary history, and ecological functions across broad areas of the Chaco due to increasing habitat destruction and hunting. Moreover, our results pinpoint key areas that should be preserved and managed to maintain all facets of mammalian diversity across the Chaco. More generally, our work highlights how long-term changes in biodiversity facets can be assessed and attributed to specific threats, to better understand human impacts on biodiversity and to guide conservation planning to mitigate them.

Using the IUCN Red List to map threats to terrestrial vertebrates at global scale

The Anthropocene is characterized by unparalleled human impact on other species, potentially ushering in the sixth mass extinction. Yet mitigation efforts remain hampered by limited information on the spatial patterns and intensity of the threats driving global biodiversity loss. Here we use expert-derived information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List on threats to 23,271 species, representing all terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals, to generate global maps of the six major threats to these groups: agriculture, hunting and trapping, logging, pollution, invasive species, and climate change. Our results show that agriculture and logging are pervasive in the tropics and that hunting and trapping is the most geographically widespread threat to mammals and birds. Additionally, current representations of human pressure underestimate the overall pressure on biodiversity, due to the exclusion of threats such as hunting and climate change. Alarmingly, this is particularly the case in areas of the highest biodiversity importance.

Targeting Conservation Actions at Species Threat Response Thresholds

Given the failure of the world's governments to improve the status of biodiversity by 2020, a new strategic plan for 2030 is being developed. In order to be successful, a step-change is needed to not just simply halt biodiversity loss, but to bend the curve of biodiversity loss to stable or increasing species' populations. Here, we propose a framework that quantifies species' responses across gradients of threat intensity to implement more efficient and better targeted conservation actions. Our framework acknowledges the variation in threat intensities as well as the differences among species in their capacity to respond, and is implemented at a relevant scale for national and international policy-making.

Jaguar (Panthera onca) density and tenure in a critical biological corridor

We estimated jaguar density and tenure, and investigated ranging behavior, using camera traps across the Maya Forest Corridor, a human-influenced landscape in central Belize that forms the only remaining connection for jaguar populations inhabiting two regional forest blocks: the Selva Maya and the Maya Mountain Massif. Jaguars were ubiquitous across the study area. Similar to the neighboring Selva Maya, mean density ranged from 1.5 to 3.1 jaguars per 100 km2, estimated by spatial capture-recapture models. Cameras detected almost twice as many males as females, probably reflecting detection bias, and males ranged more widely than females within the camera grid. Both sexes crossed two major rivers, while highway crossings were rare and male-biased, raising concern that the highway could prevent female movement if traffic increases. Jaguars were more transient where the landscape was fragmented with settlements and agriculture than in contiguous forest. Compared with jaguars in the protected forests of the Maya Mountains, jaguars in central Belize displayed a lower potential for investment in intraspecific communication, indicative of a lower quality landscape; however, we did detect mating behavior and juveniles. Tenure of individuals was shorter than in the protected forests, with a higher turnover rate for males than females. At least three-quarters of reported jaguar deaths caused by people were male jaguars, and the majority was retaliation for livestock predation. Jaguars seem relatively tolerant to the human-influenced landscape of central Belize. However, intensification of game hunting and lethal control of predators would threaten population persistence, while increased highway traffic and clear-cutting riparian forest would severely limit the corridor function. Our results show that the viability of the corridor, and thus the long-term survival of jaguar populations in this region, will depend on appropriate land-use planning, nonlethal control of livestock predators, enforcement of game hunting regulations, and wildlife-friendly features in future road developments.

Circadian activity patterns of mammalian predators and prey in Costa Rica

Temporal niche shifts can shape predator-prey interactions by enabling predator avoidance, enhancing feeding success, and reducing competition among predators. Using a community-based conservation approach, we investigated temporal niche partitioning of mammalian predators and prey across 12 long-term camera trap surveys in the Pacific slope and Talamanca Cordillera of Costa Rica. Temporal overlap and segregation were investigated between predator-prey and predator-predator pairs using overlap analysis, circular statistics, and relative abundance after accounting for differences in habitat, season, and human impact among sites. We made the assumption that predators select abundant prey and adjust their activity to maximize their temporal overlap, thus we predicted that abundant prey with high overlap would be preferred prey species for that predator. We also predicted that similar-sized pairs of predator species with the greatest potential for competitive interactions would have the highest temporal segregation. Our results supported the existence of temporal niche separation among the eight species of predators-the smaller Leopardus felids (ocelot, margay, oncilla) were primarily nocturnal, the largest felids (jaguar and puma) and coyote were cathemeral, and the smaller jaguarundi and tayra were mostly diurnal. Most prey species (67%) were primarily nocturnal versus diurnal or cathemeral (33%). Hierarchical clustering identified relationships among species with the most similar activity patterns. We discuss the primary prey and competitor species predicted for each of the eight predators. Contrary to our prediction, the activity pattern of similar-sized intraguild competitors overlapped more than dissimilar-sized competitors, suggesting that similar-sized predators are hunting the same prey at the same time. From this we conclude that prey availability is more important than competition in determining circadian activity patterns of Neotropical predators. Our results indicate the presence of a delicate balance of tropical food webs that may be disrupted by overhunting, leading to a depauperate community consisting of ubiquitous generalists and endangered specialists. With Central America a hotspot for hunting-induced "empty forests," community-based conservation approaches may offer the best road to reduce illegal hunting and maintain the biodiversity and community structure of tropical forest systems.

Combined effects of land use and hunting on distributions of tropical mammals

Land use and hunting are 2 major pressures on biodiversity in the tropics. Yet, their combined impacts have not been systematically quantified at a large scale. We estimated the effects of both pressures on the distributions of 1884 tropical mammal species by integrating species' range maps, detailed land-use maps (1992 and 2015), species-specific habitat preference data, and a hunting pressure model. We further identified areas where the combined impacts were greatest (hotspots) and least (coolspots) to determine priority areas for mitigation or prevention of the pressures. Land use was the main driver of reduced distribution of all mammal species considered. Yet, hunting pressure caused additional reductions in large-bodied species' distributions. Together, land use and hunting reduced distributions of species by 41% (SD 30) on average (year 2015). Overlap between impacts was only 2% on average. Land use contributed more to the loss of distribution (39% on average) than hunting (4% on average). However, hunting reduced the distribution of large mammals by 29% on average; hence, large mammals lost a disproportional amount of area due to the combination of both pressures. Gran Chaco, the Atlantic Forest, and Thailand had high levels of impact across the species (hotspots of area loss). In contrast, the Amazon and Congo Basins, the Guianas, and Borneo had relatively low levels of impact (coolspots of area loss). Overall, hunting pressure and human land use increased from 1992 to 2015 and corresponding losses in distribution increased from 38% to 41% on average across the species. To effectively protect tropical mammals, conservation policies should address both pressures simultaneously because their effects are highly complementary. Our spatially detailed and species-specific results may support future national and global conservation agendas, including the design of post-2020 protected area targets and strategies.

Strengthening protected areas to halt biodiversity loss and mitigate pandemic risks

The current COVID-19 pandemics is having a major impact on our global health and economies. There is widespread recognition that ecosystem disruption, including land-use change and illegal wildlife trade, is linked to the increasing emergence of zoonotic diseases. Here, we emphasize that protected areas play a fundamental role in buffering against novel disease outbreaks by maintaining ecosystem integrity. However, protected areas worldwide are facing increasing human pressures, which are being amplified by the unfolding COVID-19 crisis. Increased resources are thus urgently needed to mainstream a One Health approach to protected area management, focusing specifically on i) monitoring illegal wildlife trade, ii) biodiversity trends and iii) surveillance of zoonotic pathogens. Improving integration of public health into global biodiversity conservation policies should be a top priority to reduce the risk of future pandemics.

Extent, intensity and drivers of mammal defaunation: a continental-scale analysis across the Neotropics

Neotropical mammal diversity is currently threatened by several chronic human-induced pressures. We compiled 1,029 contemporary mammal assemblages surveyed across the Neotropics to quantify the continental-scale extent and intensity of defaunation and understand their determinants based on environmental covariates. We calculated a local defaunation index for all assemblages-adjusted by a false-absence ratio-which was examined using structural equation models. We propose a hunting index based on socioenvironmental co-variables that either intensify or inhibit hunting, which we used as an additional predictor of defaunation. Mammal defaunation intensity across the Neotropics on average erased 56.5% of the local source fauna, with ungulates comprising the most ubiquitous losses. The extent of defaunation is widespread, but more incipient in hitherto relatively intact major biomes that are rapidly succumbing to encroaching deforestation frontiers. Assemblage-wide mammal body mass distribution was greatly reduced from a historical 95th-percentile of ~ 14 kg to only ~ 4 kg in modern assemblages. Defaunation and depletion of large-bodied species were primarily driven by hunting pressure and remaining habitat area. Our findings can inform guidelines to design transnational conservation policies to safeguard native vertebrates, and ensure that the "empty ecosystem" syndrome will be deterred from reaching much of the New World tropics.

Global extent and drivers of mammal population declines in protected areas under illegal hunting pressure

Illegal hunting is a persistent problem in many protected areas, but an overview of the extent of this problem and its impact on wildlife is lacking. We reviewed 40 years (1980-2020) of global research to examine the spatial distribution of research and socio-ecological factors influencing population decline within protected areas under illegal hunting pressure. From 81 papers reporting 988 species/site combinations, 294 mammal species were reported to have been illegally hunted from 155 protected areas across 48 countries. Research in illegal hunting has increased substantially during the review period and showed biases towards strictly protected areas and the African continent. Population declines were most frequent in countries with a low human development index, particularly in strict protected areas and for species with a body mass over 100 kg. Our results provide evidence that illegal hunting is most likely to cause declines of large-bodied species in protected areas of resource-poor countries regardless of protected area conservation status. Given the growing pressures of illegal hunting, increased investments in people's development and additional conservation efforts such as improving anti-poaching strategies and conservation resources in terms of improving funding and personnel directed at this problem are a growing priority.

Mapping the Potential Distribution of Major Tick Species in China

Ticks are known as the vectors of various zoonotic diseases such as Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Though their occurrences are increasingly reported in some parts of China, our understanding of the pattern and determinants of ticks' potential distribution over the country remain limited. In this study, we took advantage of the recently compiled spatial dataset of distribution and diversity of ticks in China, analyzed the environmental determinants of ten frequently reported tick species and mapped the spatial distribution of these species over the country using the MaxEnt model. We found that presence of urban fabric, cropland, and forest in a place are key determents of tick occurrence, suggesting ticks were likely inhabited close to where people live. Besides, precipitation in the driest month was found to have a relatively high contribution in mapping tick distribution. The model projected that theses ticks could be widely distributed in the Northwest, Central North, Northeast, and South China. Our results added new evidence on the potential distribution of a variety of major tick species in China and pinpointed areas with a high potential risk of tick bites and tick-borne diseases for raising public health awareness and prevention responses.

Designing optimal human-modified landscapes for forest biodiversity conservation

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human-modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management of these landscapes. Yet, these concepts are often contradictory and apply at different spatial scales, making the design of biodiversity-friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine concepts with empirical support to design optimal landscape scenarios for forest-dwelling species. The supported concepts indicate that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥ 40% forest cover, although higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics. Forest cover should be configured with c. 10% in a very large forest patch, and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. The proposed landscape scenarios represent an optimal compromise between delivery of goods and services to humans and preserving most forest wildlife, and can therefore guide forest preservation and restoration strategies.

Below the canopy: global trends in forest vertebrate populations and their drivers

Global forest assessments use forest area as an indicator of biodiversity status, which may mask below-canopy pressures driving forest biodiversity loss and 'empty forest' syndrome. The status of forest biodiversity is important not only for species conservation but also because species loss can have consequences for forest health and carbon storage. We aimed to develop a global indicator of forest specialist vertebrate populations to improve assessments of forest biodiversity status. Using the Living Planet Index methodology, we developed a weighted composite Forest Specialist Index for the period 1970-2014. We then investigated potential correlates of forest vertebrate population change. We analysed the relationship between the average rate of change of forest vertebrate populations and satellite-derived tree cover trends, as well as other pressures. On average, forest vertebrate populations declined by 53% between 1970 and 2014. We found little evidence of a consistent global effect of tree cover change on forest vertebrate populations, but a significant negative effect of exploitation threat on forest specialists. In conclusion, we found that the forest area is a poor indicator of forest biodiversity status. For forest biodiversity to recover, conservation management needs to be informed by monitoring all threats to vertebrates, including those below the canopy.

Predicting defaunation: accurately mapping bushmeat hunting pressure over large areas

Unsustainable hunting is emptying forests of large animals around the world, but current understanding of how human foraging spreads across landscapes has been stymied by data deficiencies and cryptic hunter behaviour. Unlike other global threats to biodiversity like deforestation, climate change and overfishing, maps of wild meat hunters' movements-often based on forest accessibility-typically cover small scales and are rarely validated with real-world observations. Using camera trapping data from rainforests across Malaysian Borneo, we show that while hunter movements are strongly correlated with the accessibility of different parts of the landscape, accessibility measures are most informative when they integrate fine-scale habitat features like topography and land cover. Measures of accessibility naive to fine-scale habitat complexity, like distance to the nearest road or settlement, generate poor approximations of hunters' movements. In comparison, accessibility as measured by high-resolution movement models based on circuit theory provides vastly better reflections of real-world foraging movements. Our results highlight that simple models incorporating fine-scale landscape heterogeneity can be powerful tools for understanding and predicting widespread threats to biodiversity.

Do functional traits offset the effects of fragmentation? The case of large-bodied diurnal lemur species

Primates worldwide are faced with increasing threats making them more vulnerable to extinction. Anthropogenic disturbances, such as habitat degradation and fragmentation, are among the main concerns, and in Madagascar, these issues have become widespread. As this situation continues to worsen, we sought to understand how fragmentation affects primate distribution throughout the island. Further, because species may exhibit different sensitivity to fragmentation, we also aimed to estimate the role of functional traits in mitigating their response. We collated data from 32 large-bodied lemur species ranges, consisting of species from the families Lemuridae (five genera) and Indriidae (two genera). We fitted Generalized Linear Models to determine the role of habitat fragmentation characteristics, for example, forest cover, patch size, edge density, and landscape configuration, as well as the protected area (PA) network, on the species relative probability of presence. We then assessed how the influence of functional traits (dietary guild, home range size) mitigate the response of species to these habitat metrics. Habitat area had a strong positive effect for many species, and there were significantly negative effects of fragmentation on the distribution of many lemur species. In addition, there was a positive influence of PAs on many lemur species' distribution. Functional trait classifications showed that lemurs of all dietary guilds are negatively affected by fragmentation; however, folivore-frugivores show greater flexibility/variability in terms of habitat area and landscape complexity compared to nearly exclusive folivores and frugivores. Furthermore, species of all home range sizes showed a negative response to fragmentation, while habitat area had an increasingly positive effect as home range increased in size. Overall, the general trends for the majority of lemur species are dire and point to the need for immediate actions on a multitude of fronts, most importantly landscape-level reforestation efforts.

Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

Scenario-based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio-economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area-weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (-0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil-fuelled development scenarios (-0.06 and -0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. In some scenario-region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.

Degradation and forgone removals increase the carbon impact of intact forest loss by 626

Intact tropical forests, free from substantial anthropogenic influence, store and sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon but are currently neglected in international climate policy. We show that between 2000 and 2013, direct clearance of intact tropical forest areas accounted for 3.2% of gross carbon emissions from all deforestation across the pantropics. However, full carbon accounting requires the consideration of forgone carbon sequestration, selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation. When these factors were considered, the net carbon impact resulting from intact tropical forest loss between 2000 and 2013 increased by a factor of 6 (626%), from 0.34 (0.37 to 0.21) to 2.12 (2.85 to 1.00) petagrams of carbon (equivalent to approximately 2 years of global land use change emissions). The climate mitigation value of conserving the 549 million ha of tropical forest that remains intact is therefore significant but will soon dwindle if their rate of loss continues to accelerate.