A dispersal model for the range expansion of blacklegged tick (Acari: Ixodidae)

Typical and atypical manifestations of Anaplasma phagocytophilum infection in dogs

Eighteen clinically ill dogs, naturally infected with Anaplasma phagocytophilum, were examined at a veterinary practice in Baxter, Minnesota. A clinical examination, complete blood cell count, enzyme- linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for A phagocytophilum, Borrelia burgdorferi, and Ehrlichia canis antibodies and Dirofilaria immitis antigen, and a polymerase chain reaction test for A phagocytophilum DNA were obtained for all dogs. Physical examination findings included fever, arthropathy, lymphadenopathy, epistaxis, acute gastritis, cervical hyperpathia, and central nervous system dysfunction. Complete blood cell count abnormalities included thrombocytopenia, morulae in neutrophils, anemia, leukopenia, eosinopenia, lymphopenia, and monocytosis. Seroreactivity to A phagocytophilum was found in 61%, B burgdorferi antibodies in 17%, and D immitis antigen in 5% of the dogs. Fever, arthropathy, neurologic dysfunction, and epistaxis are clinical syndromes that can be associated with A phagocytophilum infection. Treatment with doxycycline resulted in rapid resolution of clinical signs in all dogs.

Passive surveillance for I. scapularis ticks: enhanced analysis for early detection of emerging Lyme disease risk

Lyme disease (LD) is emerging in Canada because of the northward expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis (Say). Early detection of emerging areas of LD risk is critical to public health responses, but the methods to do so on a local scale are lacking. Passive tick surveillance has operated in Canada since 1990 but this method lacks specificity for identifying areas where tick populations are established because of dispersion of ticks from established LD risk areas by migratory birds. Using data from 70 field sites in Quebec visited previously, we developed a logistic regression model for estimating the risk of I. scapularis population establishment based on the number of ticks submitted in passive surveillance and a model-derived environmental suitability index. Sensitivity-specificity plots were used to select an optimal threshold value of the linear predictor from the model as the signal for tick population establishment. This value was used to produce an "Alert Map" identifying areas where the passive surveillance data suggested ticks were establishing in Quebec. Alert Map predictions were validated by field surveillance at 76 sites: the prevalence of established I. scapularis populations was significantly greater in areas predicted as high-risk by the Alert map (29 out of 48) than in areas predicted as moderate-risk (4 out of 30) (P < 0.001). This study suggests that Alert Maps created using this approach can provide a usefully rapid and accurate tool for early identification of emerging areas of LD risk at a geographic scale appropriate for local disease control and prevention activities.

Human risk of infection with Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent, in eastern United States

The geographic pattern of human risk for infection with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, the tick-borne pathogen that causes Lyme disease, was mapped for the eastern United States. The map is based on standardized field sampling in 304 sites of the density of Ixodes scapularis host-seeking nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi, which is closely associated with human infection risk. Risk factors for the presence and density of infected nymphs were used to model a continuous 8 km×8 km resolution predictive surface of human risk, including confidence intervals for each pixel. Discontinuous Lyme disease risk foci were identified in the Northeast and upper Midwest, with a transitional zone including sites with uninfected I. scapularis populations. Given frequent under- and over-diagnoses of Lyme disease, this map could act as a tool to guide surveillance, control, and prevention efforts and act as a baseline for studies tracking the spread of infection.

Genotypic diversity of an emergent population of Borrelia burgdorferi at a coastal Maine island recently colonized by Ixodes scapularis

The recent range expansion of Ixodes scapularis has been accompanied by the emergence of Borrelia burgdorferi. The development of genetic diversity in B. burgdorferi at these sites of emergence and its relationship to range expansion is poorly understood. We followed colonization of I. scapularis on a coastal Maine island over a 17-year period. B. burgdorferi's emergence was documented, as was expansion of ospC strain diversity. Ticks collected from rodents and vegetation were examined for the presence of B. burgdorferi. Sequencing and reverse line blot were used to detect B. burgdorferi ospC major groups (oMG). No I. scapularis were found until year four of the study, after which time they increased in abundance. No B. burgdorferi was detected by darkfield microscopy in I. scapularis until 10 years into the study, when 4% of adult ticks were infected. Seven years later, 43% of adult ticks were infected. In 2003, one oMG accounted for 91% of B. burgdorferi strains. This "founder" strain persisted in 2005, but by 2007 was a minority of the 7 oMGs present. Given the island's isolation, gene flow by avian introduction of multiple strains is suggested in the development of B. burgdorferi oMG diversity.

Ixodes scapularis and Borrelia burgdorferi among diverse habitats within a natural area in east-central Illinois

The distributions of the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis, and of the etiologic agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb), have continued expanding in Illinois over the past 20 years, but the extent of their spread is not well known. The role of multiple habitats in the establishment and maintenance of I. scapularis and Bb at local scales is not well understood, and the use of integrated approaches to evaluate local scale dynamics is rare. We evaluated habitat diversity and temporal changes of I. scapularis occurrence and Bb infection within a natural area in Piatt County, Illinois, where I. scapularis were first detected in 2002. Small mammals were trapped and attached ticks were collected in young forest, prairie, mature forest, and flood plain sites from 2005 to 2009. Small mammal abundance, and the prevalence (% mammals infested), mean intensity (I. scapularis per infested mammal), and relative density (I. scapularis per mammal trapped) of I. scapularis were computed for each habitat type and compared. Immature I. scapularis were tested for Bb infection using polymerase chain reaction techniques. Out of 2446 trapped small mammals, 388 were infested with I. scapularis. The prairie had the highest diversity of small mammal hosts. Prevalence, mean intensity, and relative density of I. scapularis and prevalence of Bb infection were highest for the prairie and young forest sites; in the former, all infection was associated with the prairie vole, Microtus ochrogaster. The minimum Bb infection prevalence of on-host I. scapularis collected in the natural area was 14% (n=56). Unlike previous studies solely focused on forested areas and Peromyscus leucopus, our study is the first to provide evidence of I. scapularis collected from prairie habitat and other reservoir hosts, particularly M. ochrogaster.

Density of Ixodes scapularis ticks on Monhegan Island after complete deer removal: a question of avian importation?

Questing adult blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say) abundance declined markedly three years after the 1999 removal of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus Zimmermann) from Monhegan Island, ME. Since 2000, subadult ticks have not been found on Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus Berkenhout); questing nymphs have not been found since 2002. This suggested I. scapularis was reintroduced annually via bird importation of subadult ticks, but unable to complete its two-year life cycle on the island due to lack of deer. To investigate this, we used uncertainty analysis to estimate 1) questing adult ticks/ha that would result from avian importation of nymphs, and 2) questing adult ticks/ha on Monhegan Island, using bird capture and tick burden data from Appledore Island, ME, flagged tick data from Monhegan Island, and ten uncertain parameters. During the deer-fed period (1990-2001), estimated tick density on Monhegan Island was 18 times greater than that of imported ticks. During the post-deer-fed period (2002-2008), Monhegan Island tick density was equivalent to imported tick density. This supported the premise that all I. scapularis ticks on Monhegan Island have been bird-derived since 2002.

Regional variation in immature Ixodes scapularis parasitism on North American songbirds: implications for transmission of the Lyme pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi

Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiological agent of Lyme disease, is transmitted among hosts by the black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis, a species that regularly parasitizes various vertebrate hosts, including birds, in its immature stages. Lyme disease risk in the United States is highest in the Northeast and in the upper Midwest where I. scapularis ticks are most abundant. Because birds might be important to the range expansion of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi, we explored spatial variation in patterns of I. scapularis parasitism on songbirds, as well as B. burgdorferi infection in bird-derived I. scapularis larvae. We sampled birds at 23 sites in the eastern United States to describe seasonal patterns of I. scapularis occurrence on birds, and we screened a subset of I. scapularis larvae for presence of B. burgdorferi. Timing of immature I. scapularis occurrence on birds is consistent with regional variation in host-seeking activity with a generally earlier peak in larval parasitism on birds in the Midwest. Significantly more I. scapularis larvae occurred on birds that were contemporaneously parasitized by nymphs in the Midwest than the Northeast, and the proportion of birds that yielded B. burgdorferi-infected larvae was also higher in the Midwest. We conclude that regional variation in immature I. scapularis phenology results in different temporal patterns of parasitism on birds, potentially resulting in differential importance of birds to B. burgdorferi transmission dynamics among regions.

Invasion of the lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis: implications for Borrelia burgdorferi endemicity

Lyme disease risk is increasing in the United States due in part to the spread of blacklegged ticks Ixodes scapularis, the principal vector of the spirochetal pathogen Borrelia burgdorferi. A 5-year study was undertaken to investigate hypothesized coinvasion of I. scapularis and B. burgdorferi in Lower Michigan. We tracked the spatial and temporal dynamics of the tick and spirochete using mammal, bird, and vegetation drag sampling at eight field sites along coastal and inland transects originating in a zone of recent I. scapularis establishment. We document northward invasion of these ticks along Michigan's west coast during the study period; this pattern was most evident in ticks removed from rodents. B. burgdorferi infection prevalences in I. scapularis sampled from vegetation in the invasion zone were 9.3% and 36.6% in nymphs and adults, respectively, with the majority of infection (95.1%) found at the most endemic site. There was no evidence of I. scapularis invasion along the inland transect; however, low-prevalence B. burgdorferi infection was detected in other tick species and in wildlife at inland sites, and at northern coastal sites in years before the arrival of I. scapularis. These infections suggest that cryptic B. burgdorferi transmission by other vector-competent tick species is occurring in the absence of I. scapularis. Other Borrelia spirochetes, including those that group with B. miyamotoi and B. andersonii, were present at a low prevalence within invading ticks and local wildlife. Reports of Lyme disease have increased significantly in the invasion zone in recent years. This rapid blacklegged tick invasion--measurable within 5 years--in combination with cryptic pathogen maintenance suggests a complex ecology of Lyme disease emergence in which wildlife sentinels can provide an early warning of disease emergence.

Active and passive surveillance and phylogenetic analysis of Borrelia burgdorferi elucidate the process of Lyme disease risk emergence in Canada

BACKGROUND

Northward expansion of the tick Ixodes scapularis is driving Lyme disease (LD) emergence in Canada. Information on mechanisms involved is needed to enhance surveillance and identify where LD risk is emerging.

OBJECTIVES

We used passive and active surveillance and phylogeographic analysis of Borrelia burgdorferi to investigate LD risk emergence in Quebec.

METHODS

In active surveillance, we collected ticks from the environment and from captured rodents. B. burgdorferi transmission was detected by serological analysis of rodents and by polymerase chain reaction assays of ticks. Spatiotemporal trends in passive surveillance data assisted interpretation of active surveillance. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) of B. burgdorferi in ticks identified likely source locations of B. burgdorferi.

RESULTS

In active surveillance, we found I. scapularis at 55% of sites, and we were more likely to find them at sites with a warmer climate. B. burgdorferi was identified at 13 I. scapularis-positive sites, but infection prevalence in ticks and animal hosts was low. Low infection prevalence in ticks submitted in passive surveillance after 2004-from the tick-positive regions identified in active surveillance-coincided with an exponential increase in tick submissions during this time. MLST analysis suggested recent introduction of B. burgdorferi from the northeastern United States.

CONCLUSIONS

These data are consistent with I. scapularis ticks dispersed from the United States by migratory birds, founding populations where the climate is warmest, and then establishment of B. burgdorferi from the United States several years after I. scapularis have established. These observations provide vital information for public health to minimize the impact of LD in Canada.

Landscape epidemiology of vector-borne diseases

Landscape epidemiology describes how the temporal dynamics of host, vector, and pathogen populations interact spatially within a permissive environment to enable transmission. The spatially defined focus, or nidus, of transmission may be characterized by vegetation as well as by climate, latitude, elevation, and geology. The ecological complexity, dimensions, and temporal stability of the nidus are determined largely by pathogen natural history and vector bionomics. Host populations, transmission efficiency, and therefore pathogen amplification vary spatially, thereby creating a heterogeneous surface that may be defined by remote sensing and statistical tools. The current review describes the evolution of landscape epidemiology as a science and exemplifies selected aspects by contrasting the ecology of two different recent disease outbreaks in North America caused by West Nile virus, an explosive, highly virulent mosquito-borne virus producing ephemeral nidi, and Borrelia burgdorferi, a slowly amplifying chronic pathogen producing semipermanent nidi.

Transovarial transmission of Francisella-like endosymbionts and Anaplasma phagocytophilum variants in Dermacentor albipictus (Acari: Ixodidae)

Dermacentor albipictus (Packard) is a North American tick that feeds on cervids and livestock. It is a suspected vector of anaplasmosis in cattle, but its microbial flora and vector potential remain underevaluated. We screened D. albipictus ticks collected from Minnesota white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) for bacteria of the genera Anaplasma, Ehrlichia, Francisella, and Rickettsia using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) gene amplification and sequence analyses. We detected Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Francisella-like endosymbionts (FLEs) in nymphal and adult ticks of both sexes at 45 and 94% prevalences, respectively. The A. phagocytophilum and FLEs were transovarially transmitted to F1 larvae by individual ticks at efficiencies of 10-40 and 95-100%, respectively. The FLEs were transovarially transmitted to F2 larvae obtained as progeny of adults from F1 larval ticks reared to maturity on a calf, but A. phagocytophilum were not. Based on PCR and tissue culture inoculation assays, A. phagocytophilum and FLEs were not transmitted to the calf. The amplified FLE 16S rRNA gene sequences were identical to that of an FLE detected in a D. albipictus from Texas, whereas those of the A. phagocytophilum were nearly identical to those of probable human-nonpathogenic A. phagocytophilum WI-1 and WI-2 variants detected in white-tailed deer from central Wisconsin. However, the D. albipictus A. phagocytophilum sequences differed from that of the nonpathogenic A. phagocytophilum variant-1 associated with Ixodes scapularis ticks and white-tailed deer as well as that of the human-pathogenic A. phagocytophilum ha variant associated with I. scapularis and the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus. The transovarial transmission of A. phagocytophilum variants in Dermacentor ticks suggests that maintenance of A. phagocytophilum in nature may not be solely dependent on horizontal transmission.

Reviewing molecular adaptations of Lyme borreliosis spirochetes in the context of reproductive fitness in natural transmission cycles

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is caused by a group of pathogenic spirochetes – most often Borrelia burgdorferi, B. afzelii, and B. garinii – that are vectored by hard ticks in the Ixodes ricinus-persulcatus complex, which feed on a variety of mammals, birds, and lizards. Although LB is one of the best-studied vector-borne zoonoses, the annual incidence in North America and Europe leads other vector-borne diseases and continues to increase. What factors make the LB system so successful, and how can researchers hope to reduce disease risk – either through vaccinating humans or reducing the risk of contacting infected ticks in nature? Discoveries of molecular interactions involved in the transmission of LB spirochetes have accelerated recently, revealing complex interactions among the spirochete-tick-vertebrate triad. These interactions involve multiple, and often redundant, pathways that reflect the evolution of general and specific mechanisms by which the spirochetes survive and reproduce. Previous reviews have focused on the molecular interactions or population biology of the system. Here molecular interactions among the LB spirochete, its vector, and vertebrate hosts are reviewed in the context of natural maintenance cycles, which represent the ecological and evolutionary contexts that shape these interactions. This holistic system approach may help researchers develop additional testable hypotheses about transmission processes, interpret laboratory results, and guide development of future LB control measures and management.

MLST of housekeeping genes captures geographic population structure and suggests a European origin of Borrelia burgdorferi

Lyme borreliosis, caused by the tick-borne bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, has become the most common vector-borne disease in North America over the last three decades. To understand the dynamics of the epizootic spread and to predict the evolutionary trajectories of B. burgdorferi, accurate information on the population structure and the evolutionary relationships of the pathogen is crucial. We, therefore, developed a multilocus sequence typing (MLST) scheme for B. burgdorferi based on eight chromosomal housekeeping genes. We validated the MLST scheme on B. burgdorferi specimens from North America and Europe, comprising both cultured isolates and infected ticks. These data were compared with sequences for the commonly used genetic markers rrs-rrlA intergenic spacer (IGS) and the gene encoding the outer surface protein C (ospC). The study demonstrates that the concatenated sequences of the housekeeping genes of B. burgdorferi provide highly resolved phylogenetic signals and that the housekeeping genes evolve differently compared with the IGS locus and ospC. Using sequence data, the study reveals that North American and European populations of B. burgdorferi correspond to genetically distinct populations. Importantly, the MLST data suggest that B. burgdorferi originated in Europe rather than in North America as proposed previously.

Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities.

RESULTS

A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

CONCLUSION

We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.

Role of migratory birds in introduction and range expansion of Ixodes scapularis ticks and of Borrelia burgdorferi and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in Canada

During the spring in 2005 and 2006, 39,095 northward-migrating land birds were captured at 12 bird observatories in eastern Canada to investigate the role of migratory birds in northward range expansion of Lyme borreliosis, human granulocytic anaplasmosis, and their tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. The prevalence of birds carrying I. scapularis ticks (mostly nymphs) was 0.35% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.30 to 0.42), but a nested study by experienced observers suggested a more realistic infestation prevalence of 2.2% (95% CI = 1.18 to 3.73). The mean infestation intensity was 1.66 per bird. Overall, 15.4% of I. scapularis nymphs (95% CI = 10.7 to 20.9) were PCR positive for Borrelia burgdorferi, but only 8% (95% CI = 3.8 to 15.1) were positive when excluding nymphs collected at Long Point, Ontario, where B. burgdorferi is endemic. A wide range of ospC and rrs-rrl intergenic spacer alleles of B. burgdorferi were identified in infected ticks, including those associated with disseminated Lyme disease and alleles that are rare in the northeastern United States. Overall, 1.4[corrected]% (95% CI = 0.3 [corrected] to 0.41) of I. scapularis nymphs were PCR positive for Anaplasma phagocytophilum. We estimate that migratory birds disperse 50 million to 175 million I. scapularis ticks across Canada each spring, implicating migratory birds as possibly significant in I. scapularis range expansion in Canada. However, infrequent larvae and the low infection prevalence in ticks carried by the birds raise questions as to how B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophilum become endemic in any tick populations established by bird-transported ticks.

Understorey predicts the spatial distribution of Ixodes hirsti in South Australia

Ticks reduce the fitness of their host by increasing mortality rate and reducing reproductive success. Understanding the distribution of ticks is therefore crucial in assessing the vulnerability of host populations. The distribution of ticks is dependent on the dispersal capabilities of their hosts as well as the suitability of the new habitat. In this study, we examine the spatial distribution of Ixodes hirsti in South Australia and investigate the influence of vegetation characteristics on the presence of ticks. Additionally, we conducted a preliminary investigation into the effects of vegetation characteristics on the microclimate experienced by questing ticks. Ticks were present in six of the nine study sites. We found that the number of shrubs and the percentage of ground covered by shrubs were significant predictors of the presence of ticks: ticks were present only at sites with a dense cover of shrubs. Additionally, our preliminary data showed that dense understorey was associated with a low saturation deficit and, as such, provided a suitable microclimate for tick survival.

Hosts of the exotic ornate kangaroo tick, Amblyomma triguttatum triguttatum Koch, on southern Yorke Peninsula, South Australia

Amblyomma triguttatum triguttatum is assumed to be endemic to south-western Western Australia (including Barrow Island), Queensland (excluding Cape York Peninsula), and New South Wales, south to Dubbo and Barham. The species has been recorded on a range of mammalian hosts including macropods and domestic animals. In Queensland, A. triguttatum triguttatum is implicated in the epidemiology of Q fever. In 2000, the species was detected on southern Yorke Peninsula in South Australia. We aimed to identify A. triguttatum triguttatum's hosts through trapping, sampling of carcasses, and opportunistic capture of vertebrates on Yorke Peninsula. A. triguttatum triguttatum was removed from black rats (Rattus rattus), wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), western grey kangaroos (Macropus fuliginosus), Tammar wallabies (M. eugenii eugenii), domesticated cats and dogs, and humans. Before this study, A. triguttatum triguttatum had not been found on black rats or rabbits in the wild. This research has implications for the management of wildlife, livestock, and visitors on Yorke Peninsula. The potential for A. triguttatum triguttatum to spread to other areas of Yorke Peninsula and South Australia is considerable, as visitors (tourists) to southern Yorke Peninsula report the presence of ticks both on themselves and among camping equipment on arriving home.

Investigation of ground level and remote-sensed data for habitat classification and prediction of survival of Ixodes scapularis in habitats of southeastern Canada

In southeastern Canada, most populations of Ixodes scapularis Say, the Lyme disease vector, occur in Carolinian forests. Climate change projections suggest a northward range expansion of I. scapularis this century, but it is unclear whether more northerly habitats are suitable for I. scapularis survival. In this study, we assessed the suitability of woodlands of the Lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain region for I. scapularis by comparing tick egg survival in four different woodlands. Woodlands where I. scapularis are established, and sand dune where I. scapularis do not survive, served as positive and negative control sites, respectively. At two woodland sites, egg survival was the same as at the positive control site, but at two of the sites survival was significantly less than either the positive control site, or one of the other test sites. Egg survival in all woodland sites was significantly higher than in the sand dune site. Ground level habitat classification discriminated among woodlands in which tick survival differed. The likelihood that I. scapularis populations could persist in the different habitats, as deduced using a population model of I. scapularis, was significantly associated with variations in Landsat 7 ETM+ data (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and Tasselled Cap indices). The NDVI index predicted habitat suitability at Long Point, Ontario, with high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Our study suggests that I. scapularis populations could establish in more northerly woodland types than those in which they currently exist. Suitable habitats may be detected by ground-level habitat classification, and remote-sensed data may assist this process.

Spatiotemporal patterns of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs (Acari: Ixodidae) in the United States

The risk of Lyme disease for humans in the eastern United States is dependent on the density of host-seeking Ixodes scapularis Say nymphal stage ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi. Although many local and regional studies have estimated Lyme disease risk using these parameters, this is the first large-scale study using a standardized methodology. Density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs was measured by drag sampling of closed canopy deciduous forest habitats in 95 locations spaced among 2 degrees quadrants covering the entire United States east of the 100th meridian. Sampling was done in five standardized transects at each site and repeated three to six times during the summer of 2004. The total number of adults and nymphs of the seven tick species collected was 17,972, with 1,405 nymphal I. scapularis collected in 31 of the 95 sites. Peak global spatial autocorrelation values were found at the smallest lag distance (300 km) and decreased significantly after 1,000 km. Local auto-correlation statistics identified two significant high-density clusters around endemic areas in the northeast and upper Midwest and a low-density cluster in sites south of the 39th parallel, where only 21 nymphs were collected. Peak nymphal host-seeking density occurred earlier in the southern than in the most northern sites. Spatiotemporal density patterns will be combined with Borrelia prevalence data as part of a 4-yr survey to generate a nationwide spatial risk model for I. scapularis-borne Borrelia, which will improve targeting of disease prevention efforts.

Investigation of ground level and remote-sensed data for habitat classification and prediction of survival of Ixodes scapularis in habitats of southeastern Canada

In southeastern Canada, most populations of Ixodes scapularis Say, the Lyme disease vector, occur in Carolinian forests. Climate change projections suggest a northward range expansion of I. scapularis this century, but it is unclear whether more northerly habitats are suitable for I. scapularis survival. In this study, we assessed the suitability of woodlands of the Lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain region for I. scapularis by comparing tick egg survival in four different woodlands. Woodlands where I. scapularis are established, and sand dune where I. scapularis do not survive, served as positive and negative control sites, respectively. At two woodland sites, egg survival was the same as at the positive control site, but at two of the sites survival was significantly less than either the positive control site, or one of the other test sites. Egg survival in all woodland sites was significantly higher than in the sand dune site. Ground level habitat classification discriminated among woodlands in which tick survival differed. The likelihood that I. scapularis populations could persist in the different habitats, as deduced using a population model of I. scapularis, was significantly associated with variations in Landsat 7 ETM+ data (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and Tasselled Cap indices). The NDVI index predicted habitat suitability at Long Point, Ontario, with high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Our study suggests that I. scapularis populations could establish in more northerly woodland types than those in which they currently exist. Suitable habitats may be detected by ground-level habitat classification, and remote-sensed data may assist this process.

Climate change and the potential for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada

We used an Ixodes scapularis population model to investigate potential northward spread of the tick associated with climate change. Annual degree-days >0 degrees C limits for I. scapularis establishment, obtained from tick population model simulations, were mapped using temperatures projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s by two Global Climate Models (the Canadian CGCM2 and the UK HadCM3) for two greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcings 'A2'and 'B2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Under scenario 'A2' using either climate model, the theoretical range for I. scapularis establishment moved northwards by approximately 200 km by the 2020s and 1000 km by the 2080s. Reductions in emissions (scenario 'B2') had little effect on projected range expansion up to the 2050s, but the range expansion projected to occur between the 2050s and 2080s was less than that under scenario 'A2'. When the tick population model was driven by projected annual temperature cycles (obtained using CGCM2 under scenario 'A2'), tick abundance almost doubled by the 2020s at the current northern limit of I. scapularis, suggesting that the threshold numbers of immigrating ticks needed to establish new populations will fall during the coming decades. The projected degrees of theoretical range expansion and increased tick survival by the 2020s, suggest that actual range expansion of I. scapularis may be detectable within the next two decades. Seasonal tick activity under climate change scenarios was consistent with maintenance of endemic cycles of the Lyme disease agent in newly established tick populations. The geographic range of I. scapularis-borne zoonoses may, therefore, expand significantly northwards as a consequence of climate change this century.