Chronic disease prevention: health effects and financial costs of strategies to reduce salt intake and control tobacco use

Salt Use Behaviours of Ghanaians and South Africans: A Comparative Study of Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices

Salt consumption is high in Africa and the continent also shares the greatest burden of hypertension. This study examines salt-related knowledge, attitude and self-reported behaviours (KAB) amongst adults from two African countries—Ghana and South Africa—which have distributed different public health messages related to salt. KAB was assessed in the multinational longitudinal World Health Organisation (WHO) study on global AGEing and adult health (WHO-SAGE) Wave 2 (2014–2015). Respondents were randomly selected across both countries—Ghana (n = 6746; mean age 58 years old; SD 17; 41% men; 31% hypertensive) and South Africa (n = 3776, mean age 54 years old; SD 17; 32% men; 45% hypertensive). South Africans were more likely than Ghanaians to add salt to food at the table (OR 4.80, CI 4.071–5.611, p < 0.001) but less likely to add salt to food during cooking (OR 0.16, CI 0.130–0.197, p < 0.001). South Africans were also less likely to take action to control their salt intake (OR 0.436, CI 0.379–0.488, p < 0.001). Considering the various salt reduction initiatives of South Africa that have been largely absent in Ghana, this study supports additional efforts to raise consumer awareness on discretionary salt use and behaviour change in both countries.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of population-based tobacco control strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Tobacco consumption contributes significantly to the global burden of disease. The prevalence of smoking is estimated to be increasing in many low-income countries, including Tanzania, especially among women and youth. Even so, the implementation of tobacco control measures has been discouraging in the country. Efforts to foster investment in tobacco control are hindered by lack of evidence on what works and at what cost.

AIMS

We aim to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of population-based tobacco control strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an Excel-based Markov model, from a governmental perspective. We employed an ingredient approach and step-down methodologies in the costing exercise following a government perspective. Epidemiological data and efficacy inputs were derived from the literature. We used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as the outcome measure. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out with Ersatz to incorporate uncertainties in the model parameters.

RESULTS

Our model results showed that all five tobacco control strategies were very cost-effective since they fell below the ceiling ratio of one GDP per capita suggested by the WHO. Increase in tobacco taxes was the most cost-effective strategy, while a workplace smoking ban was the least cost-effective option, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$5 and US$267, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Even though all five interventions are deemed very cost-effective in the prevention of CVD in Tanzania, more research on budget impact analysis is required to further assess the government's ability to implement these interventions.

Dietary salt intake in the Australian population

OBJECTIVE

To update the estimate of mean salt intake for the Australian population made by the Australian Health Survey (AHS).

DESIGN

A secondary analysis of the data collected in a cross-sectional survey was conducted. Estimates of salt intake were made in Lithgow using the 24 h diet recall methodology employed by the AHS as well as using 24 h urine collections. The data from the Lithgow sample were age- and sex-weighted, to provide estimates of daily salt intake for the Australian population based upon (i) the diet recall data and (ii) the 24 h urine samples.

SETTING

Lithgow, New South Wales, Australia.

SUBJECTS

Individuals aged ≥20 years residing in Lithgow and listed on the 2009 federal electoral roll.

RESULTS

Mean (95 % CI) salt intake estimated from the 24 h diet recalls was 6·4 (6·2, 6·7) g/d for the Lithgow population compared with a corresponding figure of 6·2 g/d for the Australian population derived from the AHS. The corresponding estimate of salt intake for Lithgow adults based upon the 24 h urine collections was 9·0 (8·6, 9·4) g/d. When the age- and sex-specific estimates of salt intake obtained from the 24 h urine collections in the Lithgow sample were weighted using Australian census data, estimated salt intake for the Australian population was 9·0 (8·6, 9·5) g/d. Further adjustment for non-urinary Na excretion made the best estimate of daily salt intake for both Lithgow and Australia about 9·9 g/d.

CONCLUSIONS

The dietary recall method used by the AHS likely substantially underestimated mean population salt consumption in Australia.

Stages of Behavioral Change for Reducing Sodium Intake in Korean Consumers: Comparison of Characteristics Based on Social Cognitive Theory

High sodium intake increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. Given the importance of behavioral changes to reducing sodium intake, this study aims to investigate the stages of change and the differences in cognitive and behavioral characteristics by stage in Korean consumers. Adult participants (N = 3892) completed a questionnaire on the stages of behavioral change, recognition of social efforts, outcome expectancy, barriers to practice, nutrition knowledge and dietary behaviors, and self-efficiency related to reduced sodium intake. The numbers of participants in each stage of behavioral change for reducing sodium intake was 29.5% in the maintenance stage, 19.5% in the action stage, and 51.0% in the preaction stage that included the precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation stages. Multiple logistic regression showed that the factors differentiating the three stages were recognizing a supportive social environment, perceived barriers to the practice of reducing sodium intake, and self-efficacy to be conscious of sodium content and to request less salt when eating out. Purchasing experience of sodium-reduced products for salty foods, knowledge of the recommended intake of salt and the difference between sodium and salt, and improving dietary habits of eating salted fish, processed food, and salty snacks were factors for being in the action stage versus the preaction stage. These findings suggest that tailored intervention according to the characteristics of each stage is helpful in reducing sodium intake.

Analysis of a voluntary initiative to reduce sodium in processed and ultra-processed food products in Argentina: the views of public and private sector representatives

The Less Salt, More Life program was the first voluntary salt reduction initiative in Argentina. This article analyzes the perspectives of the stakeholders involved in this voluntary agreement between the Ministry of Health and the food industry to gradually reduce sodium content in processed foods. This exploratory case study used a qualitative approach including 29 in-depth interviews with stakeholders from the public and private sectors and identified the role of the different stakeholders and their perceptions regarding the challenges encountered in the policy process that contribute to the debate on public-private partnerships in health policies. The article also discusses the initiative's main challenges and controversies.

The Development of a Web-Based Program to Reduce Dietary Salt Intake in Schoolchildren: Study Protocol

BACKGROUND

Salt intake of schoolchildren in the Australian state of Victoria is high. To protect future cardiovascular health, interventions that seek to reduce the amount of salt in children's diets are required.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop and pilot test a Web-based program (Digital Education to Limit Salt Intake in the Home [DELISH]) that aims to reduce dietary salt intake among schoolchildren and to improve child and parent knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to salt intake. This paper presents the DELISH study protocol, along with pilot findings used to inform the development of the program.

METHODS

The DELISH program is a 5-week Web-based intervention that targets schoolchildren aged 7-10 years and their parents. This is a single-arm study with a pretest and posttest design. We will assess change in salt intake through analysis of 24-hour urinary sodium excretion. Children and parents will complete online surveys assessing knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to salt intake. We will assess feasibility of the program via process measures, which include metrics to describe intervention uptake (eg, number of children who complete Web-based sessions and of parents who view online newsletters) and evaluation surveys and interviews conducted with children, parents, and schoolteachers. The first 2 Web sessions developed for children were pilot tested in 19 children aged 8-12 years.

RESULTS

Findings from pilot testing indicated that most children (session 1: 18/19, 95%; and session 2: 19/19, 100%) enjoyed completing each session and liked the inclusion of comic strips and interactive games. Commonly reported areas of improvement related to sessions being text and content heavy. Based on these findings, we simplified sessions and developed 3 additional sessions for use in the DELISH program. The DELISH program was implemented during June-December 2016. We expect to have results from this study at the end of 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first Australian study to examine the effectiveness of a Web-based program to reduce salt intake among children in primary school. If shown to be acceptable and effective in lowering salt intake, the DELISH program could be tested using a more rigorous randomized controlled trial design.

Reducing the costs of chronic kidney disease while delivering quality health care: a call to action

The treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) imposes substantial societal costs. Expenditure is highest for renal replacement therapy (RRT), especially in-hospital haemodialysis. Redirection towards less expensive forms of RRT (peritoneal dialysis, home haemodialysis) or kidney transplantation should decrease financial pressure. However, costs for CKD are not limited to RRT, but also include nonrenal health-care costs, costs not related to health care, and costs for patients with CKD who are not yet receiving RRT. Even if patients with CKD or ESRD could be given the least expensive therapies, costs would decrease only marginally. We therefore propose a consistent and sustainable approach focusing on prevention. Before a preventive strategy is favoured, however, authorities should carefully analyse the cost to benefit ratio of each strategy. Primary prevention of CKD is more important than secondary prevention, as many other related chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, liver disease, cancer, and pulmonary disorders could also be prevented. Primary prevention largely consists of lifestyle changes that will reduce global societal costs and, more importantly, result in a healthy, active, and long-lived population. Nephrologists need to collaborate closely with other sectors and governments, to reach these aims.

Systematic review of dietary salt reduction policies: Evidence for an effectiveness hierarchy?

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared "downstream, agentic" approaches targeting individuals with "upstream, structural" policy-based population strategies.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from "downstream": dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most "upstream" regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components.

RESULTS

After screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and "upstream" population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than "downstream", individually focussed interventions. This 'effectiveness hierarchy' might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of population-based sodium reduction interventions

OBJECTIVE

To summarise evidence describing the cost-effectiveness of population-based interventions targeting sodium reduction.

METHODS

A systematic search of published and grey literature databases and websites was conducted using specified key words. Characteristics of identified economic evaluations were recorded, and included studies were appraised for reporting quality using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist.

RESULTS

Twenty studies met the study inclusion criteria and received a full paper review. Fourteen studies were identified as full economic evaluations in that they included both costs and benefits associated with an intervention measured against a comparator. Most studies were modelling exercises based on scenarios for achieving salt reduction and assumed effects on health outcomes. All 14 studies concluded that their specified intervention(s) targeting reductions in population sodium consumption were cost-effective, and in the majority of cases, were cost saving. Just over half the studies (8/14) were assessed as being of 'excellent' reporting quality, five studies fell into the 'very good' quality category and one into the 'good' category. All of the identified evaluations were based on modelling, whereby inputs for all the key parameters including the effect size were either drawn from published datasets, existing literature or based on expert advice.

CONCLUSION

Despite a clear increase in evaluations of salt reduction programs in recent years, this review identified relatively few economic evaluations of population salt reduction interventions. None of the studies were based on actual implementation of intervention(s) and the associated collection of new empirical data. The studies universally showed that population-based salt reduction strategies are likely to be cost effective or cost saving. However, given the reliance on modelling, there is a need for the effectiveness of new interventions to be evaluated in the field using strong study designs and parallel economic evaluations.

Testing a Model of Sodium Reduction in Hypertensive Older Thai Adults

Hypertensive older adults will benefit if there is a clear understanding of the factors related to sodium reduction. That would raise awareness of the causes, consequently reducing many health risks, lowering health care costs, and diminishing economic and social burden from high blood pressure. This study explored predictors of urinary sodium excretion. A cross-sectional, correlational study was conducted in 312 hypertensive older Thai adults. Questionnaires related to knowledge, self-care agency, self-care behavior of sodium reduction, and 24-hour urinary sodium analyses were used, followed by the application of structural equation modeling and the Analysis of Moment Structures program. Self-care agency, knowledge, self-care behavior, rural/urban location, and education accounted for 61% of urinary sodium excretion. Self-care agency, knowledge, and self-care behavior were the main predictors in the urinary sodium excretion model. This study suggests establishing supportive educative sodium reduction-related programs that improve knowledge and enhance self-care agency, as well as a comparison of the changes of sodium reduction self-care behavior and urinary sodium excretion over time after the intervention.

Cost effectiveness of a government supported policy strategy to decrease sodium intake: global analysis across 183 nations

OBJECTIVE

 To quantify the cost effectiveness of a government policy combining targeted industry agreements and public education to reduce sodium intake in 183 countries worldwide.

DESIGN

 Global modeling study.

SETTING

 183 countries.

POPULATION

 Full adult population in each country.

INTERVENTION

 A "soft regulation" national policy that combines targeted industry agreements, government monitoring, and public education to reduce population sodium intake, modeled on the recent successful UK program. To account for heterogeneity in efficacy across countries, a range of scenarios were evaluated, including 10%, 30%, 0.5 g/day, and 1.5 g/day sodium reductions achieved over 10 years. We characterized global sodium intakes, blood pressure levels, effects of sodium on blood pressure and of blood pressure on cardiovascular disease, and cardiovascular disease rates in 2010, each by age and sex, in 183 countries. Country specific costs of a sodium reduction policy were estimated using the World Health Organization Noncommunicable Disease Costing Tool. Country specific impacts on mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were modeled using comparative risk assessment. We only evaluated program costs, without incorporating potential healthcare savings from prevented events, to provide conservative estimates of cost effectiveness MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:  Cost effectiveness ratio, evaluated as purchasing power parity adjusted international dollars (equivalent to the country specific purchasing power of US$) per DALY saved over 10 years.

RESULTS

 Worldwide, a 10% reduction in sodium consumption over 10 years within each country was projected to avert approximately 5.8 million DALYs/year related to cardiovascular diseases, at a population weighted mean cost of I$1.13 per capita over the 10 year intervention. The population weighted mean cost effectiveness ratio was approximately I$204/DALY. Across nine world regions, estimated cost effectiveness of sodium reduction was best in South Asia (I$116/DALY); across the world's 30 most populous countries, best in Uzbekistan (I$26.08/DALY) and Myanmar (I$33.30/DALY). Cost effectiveness was lowest in Australia/New Zealand (I$880/DALY, or 0.02×gross domestic product (GDP) per capita), although still substantially better than standard thresholds for cost effective (<3.0×GDP per capita) or highly cost effective (<1.0×GDP per capita) interventions. Most (96.0%) of the world's adult population lived in countries in which this intervention had a cost effectiveness ratio <0.1×GDP per capita, and 99.6% in countries with a cost effectiveness ratio <1.0×GDP per capita.

CONCLUSION

 A government "soft regulation" strategy combining targeted industry agreements and public education to reduce dietary sodium is projected to be highly cost effective worldwide, even without accounting for potential healthcare savings.

Expanding public health in China: an empirical analysis of healthcare inputs and outputs

OBJECTIVES

The Chinese Government claims that China's health policy is primarily focused on prevention. However, this does not appear to be the case. Researchers with an interest in China's health policy may be aware that the Chinese Government launched a health reform in 2009 to improve the health status of the entire population by 2020.¹ This health reform has been in place for 7 years, and only 4 years now remain to achieve the overall objectives by 2020. This study analyzed the main inputs and outputs of China's health reform in order to identify the main problems and highlight the major challenges. It is hoped that this study will provide some reference for health reform in China and other developing countries.

STUDY DESIGN

This study focused on health, with human resources and healthcare costs as the main input indicators, and 2-week prevalence of illness and prevalence of non-communicable diseases as the main output indicators. By longitudinal comparison of real data from 2009 to 2014, the effects of China's health reform were analyzed to identify the main challenges, enabling suggestions to be made for future reference.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of empirical data. Data were collected between 2009 and 2014 as follows: (1) data on the distribution of healthcare professionals were collected from the Statistical Bulletin of China's Health Development, issued by the National Health and Family Planning Commission every year between 2009 and 2014; (2) data on government health expenditure were obtained from the Annual National Public Fiscal Expenditure Data, released by the Financial Ministry of the People's Republic of China from 2009 to 2014; (3) data on the prevalence of chronic diseases, 2-week prevalence of illness, residents' medical service demands, and utilization of health services were obtained from the Fourth and Fifth National Health Care Surveys in 2008 and 2013; and (4) data on total healthcare expenditure, medical expenditure and out-of-pocket payments were obtained from the 2015 China Statistical Yearbook.

RESULTS

From 2009 to 2014, China's healthcare human resources were distributed primarily in hospitals that focus on providing treatment. By 2014, 62.5% of the health professionals and technical personnel were distributed in hospitals. From 2009, the Chinese Government spent more money on health care than previously, with approximately 67% spent on disease treatment and 14.19% spent on disease prevention. However, the 2-week prevalence of illness increased by 5.2 percentage points, and the prevalence of chronic diseases increased by 9 percentage points. Meanwhile, residents' out-of-pocket payments for health care were as high as 50.61% of the total healthcare expenditure and were particularly high in rural areas.

CONCLUSION

China should adjust the direction of its health reform as soon as possible to focus on improving health status rather than treatment of disease. In the future, as China's population ageing trend intensifies, China must take effective measures or the country's non-communicable disease rates will continue to increase. To meet this challenge, China's health reform should take effective measures to control the rising trend of the incidence of non-communicable diseases. First, China should focus on the core goal of its health reform policy, which is disease prevention. Second, China should focus on strengthening public health systems to effectively prevent and control key epidemic diseases. Third, China should increase the number of public health personnel, improve the level of education and training of public health personnel and increase the input of funds into the field of public health as soon as possible.

Effectiveness of a Communication for Behavioral Impact (COMBI) Intervention to Reduce Salt Intake in a Vietnamese Province Based on Estimations From Spot Urine Samples

This study evaluated the effectiveness of the Communication for Behavioral Impact (COMBI)-Eat Less Salt intervention conducted in Viet Tri, Vietnam. The behavior change intervention was implemented in four wards and four communes for one year, which included mass media communication, school interventions, community programs, and focus on high-risk groups. Mean sodium excretion was estimated from spot urine samples using different equations. A subsample provided 24-hour urine to validate estimates from spot urine. Information about salt-related knowledge and behaviors was also collected. There were 513 participants at both baseline and follow-up. Mean sodium excretion estimated from spot urines fell significantly from 8.48 g/d at baseline to 8.05 g/d at follow-up (P=.001). All spot equations demonstrated a significant reduction in sodium levels; however, the change was smaller than the measured 24-hour urine. Participants showed improved knowledge and behaviors following the intervention. The COMBI intervention was effective in lowering average population salt intake and improving knowledge and behaviors.

25 by 25: Achieving Global Reduction in Cardiovascular Mortality

Four non-communicable diseases-cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes mellitus, and cancer-account for over 60 % of all deaths globally. In recognition of this significant epidemic, the United Nations set forth a target of reducing the four major NCDs by 25 % by 2025. Cardiovascular disease alone represents half of these deaths and is the leading cause of death globally, representing as much as 60 % of all deaths in regions such as Eastern Europe. In response, the WHO set specific targets on conditions and risk factors and changes in the health systems structure in order to achieve the goals. The focus was set on lifestyle risk factors-physical activity, salt-intake, and tobacco-and established conditions-obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. Health system efforts to improve medical treatment of high risk are encouraged. Efforts to achieve the goal are being promoted by leading international CVD organizations.

Effect of salt reduction on iodine status assessed by 24 hour urinary iodine excretion in children and their families in northern China: a substudy of a cluster randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To study the effect of salt reduction on iodine status and to determine whether iodine consumption was still adequate after salt reduction in a population where universal salt iodisation is mandatory.

DESIGN

A substudy of a cluster randomised controlled trial, with schools randomly assigned to either the intervention or the control group.

SETTING

28 primary schools in Changzhi, northern China.

PARTICIPANTS

279 children in grade 5 of primary school (mean age: 10.1); 553 adults (age: 43.8).

INTERVENTION

Children were educated about the harmful effects of salt and how to reduce salt intake using the schools' usual health education lessons. Children then delivered the message to their families. The duration was 1 school term (≈3.5 months).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Difference between the intervention and control groups in the change of iodine intake as measured by repeat 24 hour urinary iodine from baseline to the end of the trial.

RESULTS

At baseline, the mean salt intake was 7.0±2.5 g/day in children and 11.7±4.4 g/day in adults and the median iodine intake was 165.1 μg/day (IQR: 122.6-216.7) and 280.7 μg/day (IQR: 205.1-380.9) in children and adults, respectively. At the end of the study, salt and iodine decreased in the intervention compared with control group. The mean effect on salt for intervention versus control was -1.9 g/day (95% CI -2.6 to -1.3) in children and -2.9 g/day (95% CI -3.7 to -2.2) in adults. The mean effect on iodine was -19.3% (95% CI -29.4% to -7.7%) in children and -11.4% (95% CI -20.3% to -1.5%) in adults.

CONCLUSIONS

With ≈25% reduction in salt intake, there was a significant reduction in iodine consumption in northern China where salt is iodised. Despite this, iodine intake was still adequate, and well above the estimated average requirement. Our findings indicate that reducing salt to the WHO's target-30% reduction by 2025-will not compromise iodine status.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01821144.

Economic Benefit-Cost Analysis of Select Secondary Prevention Interventions in LMIC

We present a quantitative economic benefit-cost analysis of 2 secondary prevention targets that are part of the World Health Organization's Global Monitoring Framework for noncommunicable diseases (NCD). These targets are expected to contribute to the achievement of the overall NCD target proposed for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goal Framework. We estimate that interventions would need to avert roughly 6 million to 7 million NCD deaths worldwide in 2030 to meet the target. We calculate that the combination of tobacco taxation that achieves 50% reduction in use and 70% coverage of high-risk populations with a multidrug regimen can provide one-half of that mortality reduction in 2030, at a benefit-cost ratio of 7:1, or U.S. $7 in benefits for each U.S. $1 in cost.

Population-level interventions in government jurisdictions for dietary sodium reduction

BACKGROUND

Excess dietary sodium consumption is a risk factor for high blood pressure, stroke and cardiovascular disease. Currently, dietary sodium consumption in almost every country is too high. Excess sodium intake is associated with high blood pressure, which is common and costly and accounts for significant burden of disease. A large number of jurisdictions worldwide have implemented population-level dietary sodium reduction initiatives. No systematic review has examined the impact of these initiatives.

OBJECTIVES

• To assess the impact of population-level interventions for dietary sodium reduction in government jurisdictions worldwide.• To assess the differential impact of those initiatives by social and economic indicators.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following electronic databases from their start date to 5 January 2015: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register; MEDLINE; MEDLINE In Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; Effective Public Health Practice Project Database; Web of Science; Trials Register of Promoting Health Interventions (TRoPHI) databases; and Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS). We also searched grey literature, other national sources and references of included studies.This review was conducted in parallel with a comprehensive review of national sodium reduction efforts under way worldwide (Trieu 2015), through which we gained additional information directly from country contacts.We imposed no restrictions on language or publication status.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included population-level initiatives (i.e. interventions that target whole populations, in this case, government jurisdictions, worldwide) for dietary sodium reduction, with at least one pre-intervention data point and at least one post-intervention data point of comparable jurisdiction. We included populations of all ages and the following types of study designs: cluster-randomised, controlled pre-post, interrupted time series and uncontrolled pre-post. We contacted study authors at different points in the review to ask for missing information.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors extracted data, and two review authors assessed risk of bias for each included initiative.We analysed the impact of initiatives by using estimates of sodium consumption from dietary surveys or urine samples. All estimates were converted to a common metric: salt intake in grams per day. We analysed impact by computing the mean change in salt intake (grams per day) from pre-intervention to post-intervention.

MAIN RESULTS

We reviewed a total of 881 full-text documents. From these, we identified 15 national initiatives, including more than 260,000 people, that met the inclusion criteria. None of the initiatives were provided in lower-middle-income or low-income countries. All initiatives except one used an uncontrolled pre-post study design.Because of high levels of study heterogeneity (I2 > 90%), we focused on individual initiatives rather than on pooled results.Ten initiatives provided sufficient data for quantitative analysis of impact (64,798 participants). As required by the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) method, we graded the evidence as very low due to the risk of bias of the included studies, as well as variation in the direction and size of effect across the studies. Five of these showed mean decreases in average daily salt intake per person from pre-intervention to post-intervention, ranging from 1.15 grams/day less (Finland) to 0.35 grams/day less (Ireland). Two initiatives showed mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention: Canada (1.66) and Switzerland (0.80 grams/day more per person. The remaining initiatives did not show a statistically significant mean change.Seven of the 10 initiatives were multi-component and incorporated intervention activities of a structural nature (e.g. food product reformulation, food procurement policy in specific settings). Of those seven initiatives, four showed a statistically significant mean decrease in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention, ranging from Finland to Ireland (see above), and one showed a statistically significant mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention (Switzerland; see above).Nine initiatives permitted quantitative analysis of differential impact by sex (men and women separately). For women, three initiatives (China, Finland, France) showed a statistically significant mean decrease, four (Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom) showed no significant change and two (Canada, United States) showed a statistically significant mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention. For men, five initiatives (Austria, China, Finland, France, United Kingdom) showed a statistically significant mean decrease, three (Netherlands, Switzerland, United States) showed no significant change and one (Canada) showed a statistically significant mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention.Information was insufficient to indicate whether a differential change in mean salt intake occurred from pre-intervention to post-intervention by other axes of equity included in the PROGRESS framework (e.g. education, place of residence).We identified no adverse effects of these initiatives.The number of initiatives was insufficient to permit other subgroup analyses, including stratification by intervention type, economic status of country and duration (or start year) of the initiative.Many studies had methodological strengths, including large, nationally representative samples of the population and rigorous measurement of dietary sodium intake. However, all studies were scored as having high risk of bias, reflecting the observational nature of the research and the use of an uncontrolled study design. The quality of evidence for the main outcome was low. We could perform a sensitivity analysis only for impact.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Population-level interventions in government jurisdictions for dietary sodium reduction have the potential to result in population-wide reductions in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention, particularly if they are multi-component (more than one intervention activity) and incorporate intervention activities of a structural nature (e.g. food product reformulation), and particularly amongst men. Heterogeneity across studies was significant, reflecting different contexts (population and setting) and initiative characteristics. Implementation of future initiatives should embed more effective means of evaluation to help us better understand the variation in the effects.

The Science of Salt: A Systematic Review of Quality Clinical Salt Outcome Studies June 2014 to May 2015

Studies identified from an updated systematic review (from June 2014 to May 2015) on the impact of dietary salt intake on clinical and population health are reviewed. Randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, and meta-analyses of these study types on the effect of sodium intake on blood pressure, or any substantive adverse health outcomes were identified from MEDLINE searches and quality indicators were used to select studies that were relevant to clinical and public health. From 6920 studies identified in the literature search, 144 studies were selected for review, of which only three (n=233,680) met inclusion criteria. Between them, the three studies demonstrated a harmful association between excess dietary salt and all-cause mortality, noncardiovascular and cardiovascular disease mortality, and headache. None of the included studies found harm from lowering dietary salt. The findings of this systematic review are consistent with the large body of research supportive of efforts to reduce population salt intake and congruent with our last annual review from June 2013 to May 2014.

Prevention of stroke: a strategic global imperative

The increasing global stroke burden strongly suggests that currently implemented primary stroke prevention strategies are not sufficiently effective, and new primary prevention strategies with larger effect sizes are needed. Here, we review the latest stroke epidemiology literature, with an emphasis on the recently published Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study estimates; highlight the problems with current primary stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention strategies; and outline new developments in primary stroke and CVD prevention. We also suggest key priorities for the future, including comprehensive prevention strategies that target people at all levels of CVD risk; implementation of an integrated approach to promote healthy behaviours and reduce health disparities; capitalizing on information technology to advance prevention approaches and techniques; and incorporation of culturally appropriate education about healthy lifestyles into standard education curricula early in life. Given the already immense and fast-increasing burden of stroke and other major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which threatens worldwide sustainability, governments of all countries should develop and implement an emergency action plan addressing the primary prevention of NCDs, possibly including taxation strategies to tackle unhealthy behaviours that increase the risk of stroke and other NCDs.

Salt Intakes, Knowledge, and Behavior in Samoa: Monitoring Salt-Consumption Patterns Through the World Health Organization's Surveillance of Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors (STEPS)

This project measured population salt intake in Samoa by integrating urinary sodium analysis into the World Health Organization's (WHO's) STEPwise approach to surveillance of noncommunicable disease risk factors (STEPS). A subsample of the Samoan Ministry of Health's 2013 STEPS Survey collected 24-hour and spot urine samples and completed questions on salt-related behaviors. Complete urine samples were available for 293 participants. Overall, weighted mean population 24-hour urine excretion of salt was 7.09 g (standard error 0.19) to 7.63 g (standard error 0.27) for men and 6.39 g (standard error 0.14) for women (P=.0014). Salt intake increased with body mass index (P=.0004), and people who added salt at the table had 1.5 g higher salt intakes than those who did not add salt (P=.0422). A total of 70% of the population had urinary excretion values above the 5 g/d cutoff recommended by the WHO. A reduction of 30% (2 g) would reduce average population salt intake to 5 g/d, in line with WHO recommendations. While challenging, integration of salt monitoring into STEPS provides clear logistical and cost benefits and the lessons communicated here can help inform future programs.

Population Attributable and Preventable Fractions: Cancer Risk Factor Surveillance, and Cancer Policy Projection

The proportions of new cancer cases and deaths that are caused by exposure to risk factors and that could be prevented are key statistics for public health policy and planning. This paper summarizes the methodologies for estimating, challenges in the analysis of, and utility of, population attributable and preventable fractions for cancers caused by major risk factors such as tobacco smoking, dietary factors, high body fat, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, infectious agents, occupational exposure, air pollution, sun exposure, and insufficient breastfeeding. For population attributable and preventable fractions, evidence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and cancer, outcome (such as incidence and mortality), exposure distribution, relative risk, theoretical-minimum-risk, and counterfactual scenarios need to be clearly defined and congruent. Despite limitations of the methodology and the data used for estimations, the population attributable and preventable fractions are a useful tool for public health policy and planning.

Food, health, and complexity: towards a conceptual understanding to guide collaborative public health action

BACKGROUND

What we eat simultaneously impacts our exposure to pathogens, allergens, and contaminants, our nutritional status and body composition, our risks for and the progression of chronic diseases, and other outcomes. Furthermore, what we eat is influenced by a complex web of drivers, including culture, politics, economics, and our built and natural environments. To date, public health initiatives aimed at improving food-related population health outcomes have primarily been developed within 'practice silos', and the potential for complex interactions among such initiatives is not well understood. Therefore, our objective was to develop a conceptual model depicting how infectious foodborne illness, food insecurity, dietary contaminants, obesity, and food allergy can be linked via shared drivers, to illustrate potential complex interactions and support future collaboration across public health practice silos.

METHODS

We developed the conceptual model by first conducting a systematic literature search to identify review articles containing schematics that depicted relationships between drivers and the issues of interest. Next, we synthesized drivers into a common model using a modified thematic synthesis approach that combined an inductive thematic analysis and mapping to synthesize findings.

RESULTS

The literature search yielded 83 relevant references containing 101 schematics. The conceptual model contained 49 shared drivers and 227 interconnections. Each of the five issues was connected to all others. Obesity and food insecurity shared the most drivers (n = 28). Obesity shared several drivers with food allergy (n = 11), infectious foodborne illness (n = 7), and dietary contamination (n = 6). Food insecurity shared several drivers with infectious foodborne illness (n = 9) and dietary contamination (n = 9). Infectious foodborne illness shared drivers with dietary contamination (n = 8). Fewer drivers were shared between food allergy and: food insecurity (n = 4); infectious foodborne illness (n = 2); and dietary contamination (n = 1).

CONCLUSIONS

Our model explicates potential interrelationships between five population health issues for which public health interventions have historically been siloed, suggesting that interventions targeted towards these issues have the potential to interact and produce unexpected consequences. Public health practitioners working in infectious foodborne illness, food insecurity, dietary contaminants, obesity, and food allergy should actively consider how their seemingly targeted public health actions may produce unintended positive or negative population health impacts.

The Heart of 25 by 25: Achieving the Goal of Reducing Global and Regional Premature Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke: A Modeling Study From the American Heart Association and World Heart Federation

In 2011, the United Nations set key targets to reach by 2025 to reduce the risk of premature noncommunicable disease death by 25% by 2025. With cardiovascular disease being the largest contributor to global mortality, accounting for nearly half of the 36 million annual noncommunicable disease deaths, achieving the 2025 goal requires that cardiovascular disease and its risk factors be aggressively addressed. The Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce, comprising the World Heart Federation, American Heart Association, American College of Cardiology Foundation, European Heart Network, and European Society of Cardiology, with expanded representation from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, along with global cardiovascular disease experts, disseminates information and approaches to reach the United Nations 2025 targets. The writing committee, which reflects Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce membership, engaged the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, to develop region-specific estimates of premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025 based on various scenarios. Results show that >5 million premature CVD deaths among men and 2.8 million among women are projected worldwide by 2025, which can be reduced to 3.5 million and 2.2 million, respectively, if risk factor targets for blood pressure, tobacco use, diabetes mellitus, and obesity are achieved. However, global risk factor targets have various effects, depending on region. For most regions, United Nations targets for reducing systolic blood pressure and tobacco use have more substantial effects on future scenarios compared with maintaining current levels of body mass index and fasting plasma glucose. However, preventing increases in body mass index has the largest effect in some high-income countries. An approach achieving reductions in multiple risk factors has the largest impact for almost all regions. Achieving these goals can be accomplished only if countries set priorities, implement cost-effective population wide strategies, and collaborate in public-private partnerships across multiple sectors.

The Heart of 25 by 25: Achieving the Goal of Reducing Global and Regional Premature Deaths From Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke: A Modeling Study From the American Heart Association and World Heart Federation

In 2011, the United Nations set key targets to reach by 2025 to reduce the risk of premature noncommunicable disease death by 25% by 2025. With cardiovascular disease being the largest contributor to global mortality, accounting for nearly half of the 36 million annual noncommunicable disease deaths, achieving the 2025 goal requires that cardiovascular disease and its risk factors be aggressively addressed. The Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce, comprising the World Heart Federation, American Heart Association, American College of Cardiology Foundation, European Heart Network, and European Society of Cardiology, with expanded representation from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, along with global cardiovascular disease experts, disseminates information and approaches to reach the United Nations 2025 targets. The writing committee, which reflects Global Cardiovascular Disease Taskforce membership, engaged the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, to develop region-specific estimates of premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025 based on various scenarios. Results show that >5 million premature CVD deaths among men and 2.8 million among women are projected worldwide by 2025, which can be reduced to 3.5 million and 2.2 million, respectively, if risk factor targets for blood pressure, tobacco use, diabetes mellitus, and obesity are achieved. However, global risk factor targets have various effects, depending on region. For most regions, United Nations targets for reducing systolic blood pressure and tobacco use have more substantial effects on future scenarios compared with maintaining current levels of body mass index and fasting plasma glucose. However, preventing increases in body mass index has the largest effect in some high-income countries. An approach achieving reductions in multiple risk factors has the largest impact for almost all regions. Achieving these goals can be accomplished only if countries set priorities, implement cost-effective population wide strategies, and collaborate in public-private partnerships across multiple sectors.

Choosing an epidemiological model structure for the economic evaluation of non-communicable disease public health interventions

Non-communicable diseases are the leading global causes of mortality and morbidity. Growing pressures on health services and on social care have led to increasing calls for a greater emphasis to be placed on prevention. In order for decisionmakers to make informed judgements about how to best spend finite public health resources, they must be able to quantify the anticipated costs, benefits, and opportunity costs of each prevention option available. This review presents a taxonomy of epidemiological model structures and applies it to the economic evaluation of public health interventions for non-communicable diseases. Through a novel discussion of the pros and cons of model structures and examples of their application to public health interventions, it suggests that individual-level models may be better than population-level models for estimating the effects of population heterogeneity. Furthermore, model structures allowing for interactions between populations, their environment, and time are often better suited to complex multifaceted interventions. Other influences on the choice of model structure include time and available resources, and the availability and relevance of previously developed models. This review will help guide modelers in the emerging field of public health economic modeling of non-communicable diseases.

Have Socioeconomic Inequalities in Tobacco Use in India Increased Over Time? Trends From the National Sample Surveys (2000-2012)

Introduction:

India has experienced marked sociocultural change, economic growth and industry promotion of tobacco products over the past decade. Little is known about the influence of these factors on socioeconomic patterning of tobacco use. This study examines trends in tobacco use by socioeconomic status (SES) in India between 2000 and 2012.

Methods:

We analyzed data in 2014 from nationally-representative repeated cross-sectional National Sample Surveys (NSS) in India for 1999–2000, 2004–2005 and 2011–2012 (n = 346 612 households). Prevalence and volume trends in cigarette, “bidi” and smokeless tobacco use were examined by household expenditure, educational attainment and caste/tribe status using Two-part model.

Results:

Prevalence of any tobacco use remained consistent in the poorest households (61.5% to 62.7%) and declined among the richest (43.8% to 36.8%) between 2000–2012. Bidi use declined across all groups (poorest: 26.3% to 16.8%, richest: 19.8% to 10.7%) while cigarette use increased (poorest: 1.2% to 1.3%, richest: 6.5% to 7.0%). Relative to educated and general caste households, between 2000 and 2012 cigarette use in illiterate households increased by 38% and among Scheduled Tribe households increased by 32%. Smokeless tobacco use increased for all households (poorest: 26.2% to 33.9%, richest: 11.4% to 13.5%, Scheduled Tribe: 31.1% to 34.8%, general caste: 13.6% to 18.5%), with greater increases among richer, more educated and general caste households.

Conclusion:

Marked SES patterning of tobacco use has persisted in India. Improving enforcement of tobacco control policies and monitoring comprehensive smoke-free legislations are needed to address this growing burden.

Implications:

We found “resilient” tobacco patterns in the last decade despite prevention interventions. SES continues to be inversely associated with tobacco products, with the exception of cigarettes. The declines in bidi use may be getting replaced by increase in cigarette use trends, especially among lower SES groups. The use of smokeless tobacco products has increased across all SES groups and the volume of smokeless tobacco use is not been declining despite a number of policies on tobacco use. This may be attributed to inadequate attention to chewed forms of tobacco in current policies, particularly to implementing pictoral warnings and regulating surrogate advertising. Evaluating the implementation of anti-tobacco policies and ensuring equity dimensions in interventions is urgently needed to address tobacco use inequalities.

Salt Intake and Health Risk in Climate Change Vulnerable Coastal Bangladesh: What Role Do Beliefs and Practices Play?

Background

High salt consumption is an important risk factor of elevated blood pressure. In Bangladesh about 20 million people are at high risk of hypertension due to climate change induced saline intrusion in water. The objective of this study is to assess beliefs, perceptions, and practices associated with salt consumption in coastal Bangladesh.

Methods

The study was conducted in Chakaria, Bangladesh between April-June 2011. It was a cross sectional mixed method study. For the qualitative study 6 focus group discussions, 8 key informant interviews, 60 free listing exercises, 20 ranking exercises and 10 observations were conducted. 400 adults were randomly selected for quantitative survey. For analysis we used SPSS for quantitative data, and Anthropac and Nvivo for qualitative data.

Results

Salt was described as an essential component of food with strong cultural and religious roots. People described both health benefits and risks related to salt intake. The overall risk perception regarding excessive salt consumption was low and respondents believed that the cooking process can render the salt harmless. Respondents were aware that salt is added in many foods even if they do not taste salty but did not recognize that salt can occur naturally in both foods and water.

Conclusions

In the study community people had low awareness of the risks associated with excess salt consumption and salt reduction strategies were not high in their agenda. The easy access to and low cost of salt as well as unrecognised presence of salt in drinking water has created an environment conducive to excess salt consumption. It is important to design general messages related to salt reduction and test tailored strategies especially for those at high risk of hypertension.

Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies.

RESULTS

The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.

Resource Effective Strategies to Prevent and Treat Cardiovascular Disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of global deaths, with the majority occurring in low- and middle-income countries. The primary and secondary prevention of CVD is suboptimal throughout the world, but the evidence-practice gaps are much more pronounced in low- and middle-income countries. Barriers at the patient, healthcare provider, and health system level prevent the implementation of optimal primary and secondary prevention. Identification of the particular barriers that exist in resource-constrained settings is necessary to inform effective strategies to reduce the identified evidence-practice gaps. Furthermore, targeting modifiable factors that contribute most significantly to the global burden of CVD, including tobacco use, hypertension, and secondary prevention for CVD, will lead to the biggest gains in mortality reduction. We review a select number of novel, resource-efficient strategies to reduce premature mortality from CVD, including (1) effective measures for tobacco control, (2) implementation of simplified screening and management algorithms for those with or at risk of CVD, (3) increasing the availability and affordability of simplified and cost-effective treatment regimens including combination CVD preventive drug therapy, and (4) simplified delivery of healthcare through task-sharing (nonphysician health workers) and optimizing self-management (treatment supporters). Developing and deploying systems of care that address barriers related to the above will lead to substantial reductions in CVD and related mortality.

Cardiovascular disease and impoverishment averted due to a salt reduction policy in South Africa: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis

The South African Government recently set targets to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) by lowering salt consumption. We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to model the potential health and economic impacts of this salt policy. We used surveys and epidemiologic studies to estimate reductions in CVD resulting from lower salt intake. We calculated the average out-of-pocket (OOP) cost of CVD care, using facility fee schedules and drug prices. We estimated the reduction in OOP expenditures and government subsidies due to the policy. We estimated public and private sector costs of policy implementation. We estimated financial risk protection (FRP) from the policy as (1) cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) averted or (2) cases of poverty averted. We also performed a sensitivity analysis. We found that the salt policy could reduce CVD deaths by 11%, with similar health gains across income quintiles. The policy could save households US$ 4.06 million (2012) in OOP expenditures (US$ 0.29 per capita) and save the government US$ 51.25 million in healthcare subsidies (US$ 2.52 per capita) each year. The cost to the government would be only US$ 0.01 per capita; hence, the policy would be cost saving. If the private sector food reformulation costs were passed on to consumers, food expenditures would increase by <0.2% across all income quintiles. Preventing CVD could avert 2400 cases of CHE or 2000 cases of poverty yearly. Our results were sensitive to baseline CVD mortality rates and the cost of treatment. We conclude that, in addition to health gains, population salt reduction can have positive economic impacts-substantially reducing OOP expenditures and providing FRP, particularly for the middle class. The policy could also provide large government savings on health care.

Low Salt Diet and Insulin Resistance

It is well known that high sodium intake is closely associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease, but the effect of low sodium intake on insulin resistance is not clear. In this article, we summarize findings from previous studies focusing on the association between low sodium intake and insulin resistance. While many investigations on this topic have been conducted actively, their major findings are inconsistent, partly due to different study designs. Thus, additional randomized controlled trials with an adequate study period and reasonable levels of low sodium intake are needed.

Sodium intake status in United States and potential reduction modeling: an NHANES 2007-2010 analysis

Limiting dietary sodium intake has been a consistent dietary recommendation. Using NHANES 2007-2010 data, we estimated current sodium intake and modeled the potential impact of a new sodium reduction technology on sodium intake. NHANES 2007-2010 data were used to assess current sodium intake. The National Cancer Institute method was used for usual intake determination. Suggested sodium reductions using SODA-LO (®) Salt Microspheres ranged from 20% to 30% in 953 foods and usual intakes were modeled by using various reduction factors and levels of market penetration. SAS 9.2, SUDAAN 11, and NHANES survey weights were used in all calculations with assessment across gender and age groups. Current (2007-2010) sodium intake (mg/day) exceeds recommendations across all age gender groups and has not changed during the last decade. However, sodium intake measured as a function of food intake (mg/g food) has decreased significantly during the last decade. Two food categories contribute about 2/3rd of total sodium intake: "Grain Products" and "Meat, Poultry, Fish & Mixtures". Sodium reduction, with 100% market penetration of the new technology, was estimated to be 230-300 mg/day or 7-9% of intake depending upon age and gender group. Sodium reduction innovations like SODA-LO (®) Salt Microspheres could contribute to meaningful reductions in sodium intake.

Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality from the four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as the 25 × 25 target). Countries also agreed on a set of global voluntary targets for selected NCD risk factors. Previous analyses have shown that achieving the risk factor targets can contribute substantially towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target at the global level. We estimated the contribution of achieving six of the globally agreed risk factor targets towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target by region.

METHODS

We estimated the effect of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multicausality of NCDs and for the fact that, when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from reanalyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies.

FINDINGS

The probability of dying between the ages 30 years and 70 years from the four main NCDs in 2010 ranged from 19% in the region of the Americas to 29% in southeast Asia for men, and from 13% in Europe to 21% in southeast Asia for women. If current trends continue, the probability of dying prematurely from the four main NCDs is projected to increase in the African region but decrease in the other five regions. If the risk factor targets are achieved, the 25 × 25 target will be surpassed in Europe in both men and women, and will be achieved in women (and almost achieved in men) in the western Pacific; the regions of the Americas, the eastern Mediterranean, and southeast Asia will approach the target; and the rising trend in Africa will be reversed. In most regions, a more ambitious approach to tobacco control (50% reduction relative to 2010 instead of the agreed 30%) will contribute the most to reducing premature NCD mortality among men, followed by addressing raised blood pressure and the agreed tobacco target. For women, the highest contributing risk factor towards the premature NCD mortality target will be raised blood pressure in every region except Europe and the Americas, where the ambitious (but not agreed) tobacco reduction would have the largest benefit.

INTERPRETATION

No WHO region will meet the 25 × 25 premature mortality target if current mortality trends continue. Achieving the agreed targets for the six risk factors will allow some regions to meet the 25 × 25 target and others to approach it. Meeting the 25 × 25 target in Africa needs other interventions, including those addressing infection-related cancers and cardiovascular disease.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

Analysis of nutritional habits and intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids in veterans with peripheral arterial disease

Inadequate nutrient intake may contribute to the development and progression of peripheral arterial disease (PAD). This study’s aim was to assess intake of essential fatty acids and nutrients among veterans with PAD. All 88 subjects had ankle–brachial indices of <0.9 and claudication. A validated food frequency questionnaire evaluated dietary intake, and values were compared to guidelines established by the American Heart Association (AHA) and American College of Cardiology (ACC), as well as the AHA/ACC endorsed Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) eating plan. The mean age was 69 ± 8 years. Compared to the AHA/ACC guidelines, subjects with PAD had an inadequate intake of long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids ( n-3 PUFA; 59% consumed >1 gram daily). Our subjects with PAD had an increased intake of cholesterol (31% met the cut-off established in the DASH plan), total fat (5%) and sodium (53%). They had an inadequate intake of magnesium (3%), calcium (5%), and soluble fiber (3%). Dietary potassium intake met the recommended guidelines. In our subjects with PAD, intake of critical nutrients deviated substantially from the recommended amounts. Further prospective studies should evaluate whether PAD patients experience clinical benefit if diets are modified to meet the AHA/ACC recommendations.

Determinants of attaining and maintaining a low cardiovascular risk profile--the Doetinchem Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

While maintenance of a low cardiovascular risk profile is essential for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, few people maintain a low CVD risk profile throughout their life. We studied the association of demographic, lifestyle, psychological factors and family history of CVD with attainment and maintenance of a low risk profile over three subsequent 5-year periods.

METHODS

Measurements of 6390 adults aged 26-65 years at baseline were completed from 1993 to 97 and subsequently at 5-year intervals until 2013. At each wave, participants were categorized into low risk profile (ideal levels of blood pressure, cholesterol and body mass index, non-smoking and no diabetes) and medium/high risk profile (all others). Multivariable-adjusted modified Poisson regression analyses were used to examine determinants of attainment and maintenance of low risk; risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained. Generalized estimating equations were used to combine multiple 5-year comparisons.

RESULTS

Younger age, female gender and high educational level were associated with higher likelihood of both maintaining and attaining low risk profile (P < 0.05). In addition, likelihood of attaining low risk was 9% higher with each 1-unit increment in Mediterranean diet score (RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16), twice as high with any physical activity versus none (RR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.16-4.04) and 35% higher with moderate alcohol consumption versus heavy consumption (RR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.06-1.73).

CONCLUSION

Healthy lifestyle factors such as adherence to a Mediterranean diet, physical activity and moderate as opposed to heavy alcohol consumption were associated with a higher likelihood of attaining a low risk profile.

Management of Coronary Artery Disease in South Asian Populations: Why and How to Prevent and Treat Differently

The South Asian (SA) population constitutes one of the largest ethnic groups in the world. Several studies that compared host and migrant populations around the world indicate that SAs have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) than their native-born counterparts. Herein, we review the literature to address the role of the screening tools, scoring systems, and guidelines for primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention in these populations. Management based on screening for the CVD risk factors in a high-risk population such as SAs can improve health care outcomes. There are many scoring tools for calculating 10-year CVD risk; however, each scoring system has its limitations in this particular ethnicity. Further work is needed to establish a unique scoring and guidelines in SAs.

Maternal salt and fat intake causes hypertension and sustained endothelial dysfunction in fetal, weanling and adult male resistance vessels

Maternal salt and fat intake can independently programme adult cardiovascular status, increasing risk of cardiovascular disease in offspring. Despite its relevance to modern western-style dietary habits, the interaction between increased maternal salt and fat intake has not been examined. Female virgin Sprague-Dawley rats were fed, a standard control diet (CD) (10% kcal fat, 1% NaCl), High-fat diet (HF) (45% kcal fat, 1% NaCl), High-salt diet (SD) (10% kcal fat, 4% NaCl), High-fat high-salt diet (HFSD) (45% kcal fat, 4% NaCl) prior to pregnancy, during pregnancy and throughout lactation. Fetal, weanling and adult vessels were mounted on a pressure myograph at fetal day 18, weaning day 21 and day 135 of adulthood. Increased blood pressure in SD, HFD and HFSD male offspring at day 80 and 135 of age was consistent with perturbed vascular function in fetal, weanling and adult vessels. Maternal salt intake reduced EDHF and calcium-mediated vasodilation, maternal fat reduced NO pathways and maternal fat and salt intake, a combination of the two pathways. Adult offspring cardiovascular disease risk may, in part, relate to vascular adaptations caused by maternal salt and/or fat intake during pregnancy, leading to persistent vascular dysfunction and sustained higher resting blood pressure throughout life.

The science of salt: a systematic review of clinical salt studies 2013 to 2014

The authors provided a systematic review of the clinical and population health impact of increased dietary salt intake during 1 year. Randomized controlled trials or cohort studies or meta-analyses on the effect of sodium intake were examined from Medline searches between June 2013 to May 2014. Quality indicators were used to select studies that were relevant to clinical and public health. A total of 213 studies were reviewed, of which 11 (n=186,357) were eligible. These studies confirmed a causal relationship between increasing dietary salt and increased blood pressure and an association between several adverse health outcomes and increased dietary salt. A new association between salt intake and renal cell cancer was published. No study that met inclusion criteria found harm from lowering dietary salt. The findings of this systematic review are consistent with previous data relating increased dietary salt to increased blood pressure and adverse health outcomes.

Health and economic impacts of eight different dietary salt reduction interventions

BACKGROUND

Given the high importance of dietary sodium (salt) as a global disease risk factor, our objective was to compare the impact of eight sodium reduction interventions, including feasible and more theoretical ones, to assist prioritisation.

METHODS

Epidemiological modelling and cost-utility analysis were performed using a Markov macro-simulation model. The setting was New Zealand (NZ) (2.3 million citizens, aged 35+ years) which has detailed individual-level administrative cost data.

RESULTS

Of the most feasible interventions, the largest health gains were from (in descending order): (i) mandatory 25% reduction in sodium levels in all processed foods; (ii) the package of interventions performed in the United Kingdom (UK); (iii) mandatory 25% reduction in sodium levels in bread, processed meats and sauces; (iv) media campaign (as per a previous UK one); (v) voluntary food labelling as currently used in NZ; (vi) dietary counselling as currently used in NZ. Even larger health gains came from the more theoretical options of a "sinking lid" on the amount of food salt released to the national market to achieve an average adult intake of 2300 mg sodium/day (211,000 QALYs gained, 95% uncertainty interval: 170,000-255,000), and from a salt tax. All the interventions produced net cost savings (except counseling--albeit still cost-effective). Cost savings were especially large with the sinking lid (NZ$ 1.1 billion, US$ 0.7 billion). Also the salt tax would raise revenue (up to NZ$ 452 million/year). Health gain per person was greater for Māori (indigenous population) men and women compared to non-Māori.

CONCLUSIONS

This study substantially expands on the range of previously modelled salt reduction interventions and suggests that some of these might achieve major health gains and major cost savings (particularly the regulatory interventions). They could also reduce ethnic inequalities in health.

Health gain by salt reduction in europe: a modelling study

Excessive salt intake is associated with hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Salt intake exceeds the World Health Organization population nutrition goal of 5 grams per day in the European region. We assessed the health impact of salt reduction in nine European countries (Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom). Through literature research we obtained current salt intake and systolic blood pressure levels of the nine countries. The population health modeling tool DYNAMO-HIA including country-specific disease data was used to predict the changes in prevalence of ischemic heart disease and stroke for each country estimating the effect of salt reduction through its effect on blood pressure levels. A 30% salt reduction would reduce the prevalence of stroke by 6.4% in Finland to 13.5% in Poland. Ischemic heart disease would be decreased by 4.1% in Finland to 8.9% in Poland. When salt intake is reduced to the WHO population nutrient goal, it would reduce the prevalence of stroke from 10.1% in Finland to 23.1% in Poland. Ischemic heart disease would decrease by 6.6% in Finland to 15.5% in Poland. The number of postponed deaths would be 102,100 (0.9%) in France, and 191,300 (2.3%) in Poland. A reduction of salt intake to 5 grams per day is expected to substantially reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease and mortality in several European countries.

An analysis of sodium, total fat and saturated fat contents of packaged food products advertised in Bronx-based supermarket circulars

Americans' consumption of sodium, fat, and saturated fat exceed federally recommended limits for these nutrients and has been identified as a preventable leading cause of hypertension and cardiovascular disease. More than 40% of the Bronx population comprises African-Americans, who have increased risk and earlier onset of hypertension and are also genetically predisposed to salt-sensitive hypertension. This study analyzed nutrition information for packaged foods advertised in Bronx-based supermarket circulars. Federally recommended limits for sodium, saturated fat and total fat contents were used to identify foods that were high in these nutrients. The proportion of these products with respect to the total number of packaged foods was calculated. More than a third (35%) and almost a quarter (24%) of the 898 advertised packaged foods were high in saturated fat and sodium respectively. Such foods predominantly included processed meat and fish products, fast foods, meals, entrees and side dishes. Dairy and egg products were the greatest contributors of high saturated fat. Pork and beef products, fast foods, meals, entrees and side dishes had the highest median values for sodium, total fat and saturated fat content. The high proportion of packaged foods that are high in sodium and/or saturated fat promoted through supermarket circulars highlights the need for nutrition education among consumers as well as collaborative public health measures by the food industry, community and government agencies to reduce the amounts of sodium and saturated fat in these products and limit the promotion of foods that are high in these nutrients.

The impact of the Malaysian minimum cigarette price law: findings from the ITC Malaysia Survey

OBJECTIVES

Study the effects of the 2011 Malaysian minimum price law (MPL) on prices of licit and illicit cigarette brands. Identify barriers to the MPL achieving positive public health effects.

METHODS

The International Tobacco Control Project's Southeast Asia survey collected information on Malaysian smokers' cigarette purchases (n=7520) in five survey waves between 2005 and 2012. Consumption-weighted comparisons of proportions tests and adjusted Wald tests were used to evaluate changes over time in violation rates of the inflation-adjusted MPL, the proportion of illicit cigarette purchases and mean prices.

RESULTS

After the passage of the MPL, the proportion of licit brand cigarette purchases that were below the inflation-adjusted 2011 minimum price level fell substantially (before 3.9%, after 1.8%, p=0.002), while violation of the MPL for illicit brand cigarette purchases was unchanged (before 89.8%, after 91.9%, p=0.496). At the same time, the mean real price of licit cigarettes rose (p=0.006), while the mean real price of illicit cigarettes remained unchanged (p=0.134). The proportion of illicit cigarette purchases rose as well (before 13.4%, after 16.5%, p=0.041).

DISCUSSION

The MPL appears not to have meaningfully changed cigarette prices in Malaysia, as licit brand prices remained well above and illicit brand prices remained well below the minimum price level before and after MPL's implementation. The increasing proportion of illicit cigarettes on the market may have undermined any positive health effects of the Malaysian MPL. The illicit cigarette trade must be addressed before a full evaluation of the Malaysian MPL's impact on public health can take place. The authors encourage the continued use of specific excise tax increases to reliably increase the price and decrease the consumption of cigarettes in Malaysia and elsewhere.