Predictors of morbidity and mortality after the first episode of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in liver cirrhosis

Evaluation of the increase in model for end-stage liver disease (DeltaMELD) score over time as a prognostic predictor in patients with advanced cirrhosis: risk factor analysis and comparison with initial MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. The change in MELD score over time (DeltaMELD) may have additional prognostic value. We investigated the ability of DeltaMELD to predict the outcome of advanced cirrhosis and prospectively assessed the factors associated with increasing DeltaMELD.

METHODS

Risk factors were determined in 58 prospectively followed-up patients. The predictive power of DeltaMELD, initial MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score was compared by using c-statistic in 351 patients.

RESULTS

Ascites (P=0.020) and hepatic encephalopathy (P=0.023) were significantly associated with increasing MELD score at 3 months. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for DeltaMELD/month was 0.779 compared with 0.718 for MELD (P=0.130) and 0.528 for CTP score (P<0.001) at 6 months; the area was 0.822, 0.744 and 0.528, respectively (P=0.018 and <0.001, respectively) at 12 months. DeltaMELD/month >2.5 was the only significant prognostic predictor at 6 (odds ratio: 9.8, P<0.001) and 12 months (odds ratio: 16.3, P<0.001) in multivariate logistic analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing MELD score is associated with the onset of ascites and encephalopathy. DeltaMELD is superior to initial MELD and CTP scores to predict intermediate term outcome in patients with advanced cirrhosis.

MELD score and hepatocellular carcinoma identify patients at different risk of short-term mortality among cirrhotics bleeding from esophageal varices

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The role of model for end stage liver disease (MELD) and the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as risk factors of short-term mortality in patients bleeding from oesophageal varices were evaluated.

METHODS

From February 2002 to August 2003, 172 cirrhotic patients admitted for the first episode of bleeding from oesophageal varices received vasoactive and endoscopic therapy. Patients' survival was evaluated at 6 weeks and 3 months. The role of MELD and HCC as independent risk factors of mortality was evaluated.

RESULTS

In the 172 patients, the overall mortality was 21.5% at 6 weeks and 30.2% at 3 months. MELD score resulted a good predictor of mortality either at 6 weeks or 3 months. Fifty-four patients (31.3%) had HCC. The presence of advanced HCC was an independent risk factor of mortality at 3 months. Patients with MELD score>15 and advanced HCC had a significantly worse survival than patients with MELD

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score and the presence of HCC allow to identify patients at different risk of short-term mortality among cirrhotic patients at first episode of bleeding from oesophageal varices.

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MESH Headings

• Aged
• Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/mortality
• Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/physiopathology
• Esophageal and Gastric Varices/mortality
• Esophageal and Gastric Varices/physiopathology
• Female
• Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/mortality
• Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/physiopathology
• Humans
• Liver Cirrhosis/mortality
• Liver Cirrhosis/physiopathology
• Liver Neoplasms/mortality
• Liver Neoplasms/physiopathology
• Male
• Middle Aged
• Predictive Value of Tests
• Prognosis
• Risk Factors
• Severity of Illness Index
• Survival Analysis

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Affiliation(s)

Lucio Amitrano Department of Gastroenterology, A. Cardarelli Hospital, Via Cardarelli 9, 80131 Napoli, Italy.
Maria Anna Guardascione
Raffaele Bennato
Francesco Manguso
Antonio Balzano

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Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis and in noncirrhotic patients: epidemiology and predictive factors of mortality in a prospective multicenter population-based study

GOALS

To assess epidemiologic features and predictive factors of mortality of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB).

STUDY

During a 6-month period, a prospective population-based study including all the UGIB occurring in a geographic area of 3 million people was conducted. Data from cirrhotic patients were compared with those of noncirrhotic patients.

RESULTS

A total of 2,133 UGIB were recorded, 21.9% in cirrhotic patients (n = 468). Endoscopic hemostasis was performed in 46.5% and 8.3% in cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients, respectively (P < 0.001). Mortality during hospitalization was 23.5% in cirrhotic patients and 11.2% in noncirrhotic patients (P < 0.001). Six independent predictive factors of mortality were observed in both patient groups: a prothrombin level less than 40%, an UGIB occurring in inpatients, a concomitant digestive carcinoma, a hematemesis revealing the UGIB, a recent use of steroid drugs, and age over 60 years. Four other predictive factors of mortality were also identified in noncirrhotic patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Although epidemiologic features, clinical course, management, and prognosis of UGIB were quite different in cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients, the majority of predictive factors of mortality were the same in both patient groups. These data underline the major role of debilitated status and hepatic failure in the prognosis of UGIB in cirrhotic patients.

Peroxisome proliferators and receptor-mediated hepatic carcinogenesis

The peroxisome proliferators represent an important group of hepatic carcinogens in rodents that act via the nuclear receptor PPARalpha. The primary role of PPARalpha in mediating this response had led to the further characterization of potential events downstream that likely enable the carcinogenic response, including increased peroxisomal fatty acid beta oxidation and the modulation of hepatocellular replication and death, either generally or in preneoplastic lesions. A cooperative role of Kupffer cell activation has been proposed to function in the modulation of hepatocellular proliferation in rodent liver by peroxisome proliferators, but data that confirm or refute this proposal are mixed. Presently there is no evidence that links the Kupffer cell activation by peroxisome proliferators directly to the development of liver tumors. There are marked species differences in susceptibility to peroxisomal proliferation, and active investigation concerning the molecular basis of these differences continues.

Recombinant factor VIIa for upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis: a randomized, double-blind trial

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a severe and frequent complication of cirrhosis. Recombinant coagulation factor VIIa (rFVIIa) has been shown to correct the prolonged prothrombin time in patients with cirrhosis and UGIB. This trial aimed to determine efficacy and safety of rFVIIa in cirrhotic patients with variceal and nonvariceal UGIB.

METHODS

A total of 245 cirrhotic patients (Child-Pugh < 13; Child-Pugh A = 20%, B = 52%, C = 28%) with UGIB (variceal = 66%, nonvariceal = 29%, bleeding source unknown = 5%) were randomized equally to receive 8 doses of 100 microg/kg rFVIIa or placebo in addition to pharmacologic and endoscopic treatment. The primary end point was a composite including: (1) failure to control UGIB within 24 hours after first dose, or (2) failure to prevent rebleeding between 24 hours and day 5, or (3) death within 5 days.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics were similar between rFVIIa and placebo groups. rFVIIa showed no advantage over standard treatment in the whole trial population. Exploratory analyses, however, showed that rFVIIa significantly decreased the number of failures on the composite end point (P = 0.03) and the 24-hour bleeding control end point (P = 0.01) in the subgroup of Child-Pugh B and C variceal bleeders. There were no significant differences between rFVIIa and placebo groups in mortality (5- or 42-day) or incidence of adverse events including thromboembolic events.

CONCLUSIONS

Although no overall effect of rFVIIa was observed, exploratory analyses in Child-Pugh B and C cirrhotic patients indicated that administration of rFVIIa significantly decreased the proportion of patients who failed to control variceal bleeding. Dosing with rFVIIa appeared safe. Further studies are needed to verify these findings.

A cost-utility analysis of secondary prophylaxis for variceal hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Secondary prophylaxis for esophageal variceal hemorrhage (VH) is recommended, but there has never been a cost-utility analysis of its implementation.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to compare the cost utility of various strategies for the secondary prophylaxis of VH including (a) observation alone, (b) medical therapy (MED), (c) endoscopic band ligation (EBL), (d) endoscopic band ligation plus medical therapy (EBL + M), and (e) transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), and to examine the effect of adherence on these strategies.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed for all five strategies, and included surveillance, risk of hepatic encephalopathy, complications, and nonadherence.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature and the Health Care Financing Administration.

TARGET POPULATION

People with cirrhosis and a history of controlled VH.

TIME HORIZON

Three years.

PERSPECTIVE

Third-party payer.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Combination EBL + M was the optimal strategy, dominating all other strategies including observation, meaning that it was more effective and less expensive than the others. In addition, EBL alone dominated observation and TIPS in terms of QALYs, and MED alone dominated the strategy of observation in terms of QALYs.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Important variables affecting the optimal strategy were the odds ratio (OR) of VH with EBL compared to MED, the OR of VH with EBL + M compared to EBL, and patients' preferences regarding taking the medication as reflected in the associated toll exacted on the health state utility. Variations in these parameters within the range of clinical plausibility allowed EBL or MED to become the optimal strategy. TIPS was the optimal strategy only if adherence rates for all strategies were less than 12%. RESULTS OF MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS: Neither observation nor TIPS was ever the optimal strategy, and EBL + M was optimal in 62% of cases. If the variables identified in the sensitivity analysis were controlled, then EBL + M was optimal in 95% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

TIPS should be reserved only for patients with very poor adherence. Otherwise, patients are best served by medications, EBL, or a combination of both, depending on the comparative rates of rebleeding with each and patients' preferences regarding medical therapy. The redundancy of combination band ligation plus medical therapy can improve outcomes, particularly in the setting of poor patient adherence.

Hepatorenal syndrome

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a common complication of advanced cirrhosis, characterised by renal failure and major disturbances in circulatory function. Renal failure is caused by intense vasoconstriction of the renal circulation. The syndrome is probably the final consequence of extreme underfilling of the arterial circulation secondary to arterial vasodilatation in the splanchnic vascular bed. As well as the renal circulation, most extrasplanchnic vascular beds are vasoconstricted. The diagnosis of HRS is currently based on the exclusion of other causes of renal failure. The prognosis is very poor, particularly when there is rapidly progressive renal failure (type 1). Liver transplantation is the best option in patients without contraindications to the procedure, but it is not always possible owing to the short survival expectancy. Therapies introduced during the past few years, such as vasoconstrictor drugs (vasopressin analogues, alpha-adrenergic agonists) or the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, are effective in improving renal function. Nevertheless, liver transplantation should still be done in suitable patients even after improvement of renal function because the outcome of HRS is poor. Finally, recent findings suggest that the risk of developing HRS in the setting of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis may be reduced by the administration of albumin together with antibiotic therapy, and that of HRS occurring in severe alcoholic hepatitis can be lowered by administration of pentoxifylline. Although these findings need to be confirmed, these two strategies represent innovative approaches to lower the frequency of HRS in clinical practice.

Secondary prophylaxis of oesophageal variceal haemorrhage: a role for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt?

Cirrhotic patients who survive an episode of acute variceal haemorrhage are at high risk of recurrent bleeding. Many treatments have been found to be effective at preventing rebleeding, including drug therapy, endoscopic treatments and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stunt (TIPS). In this issue of European Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Jalan et al. compared three historical cohorts of patients with cirrhosis after index variceal bleed and found a lower rebleeding rate in patients receiving TIPS (16.2%) compared to either band ligation (39.3%) or endoscopic variceal sclerotherapy (74.6%). Despite the efficacy of TIPS in preventing variceal rebleeding, there was no significant difference in survival between the three cohorts. However, sub-group analysis found a lower mortality in patients with Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis receiving TIPS. Unfortunately, this promising observation in patients with advanced cirrhosis is not supported by the results of meta-analysis of randomized studies. Therefore, we do not recommend TIPS as first-line therapy to prevent variceal rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis.

Liver disease in the elderly

Despite several morphologic and functional changes that have been described in the aging liver, most relevant studies fail to identify a significant age-related deficit in liver function in humans. One of the important age-related changes is a decrease in regenerative capacity, which may partly explain the impaired recovery after severe viral and toxic injury in the elderly. Nevertheless, livers from older subjects are used successfully for transplantation. Substantial morbidity and mortality in the elderly is attributable to liver diseases, and the number of patients older than 65 years of age with chronic liver disease is increasing rapidly. Although there are no liver diseases specific to advanced age, the presentation, clinical course and management of liver diseases in the elderly may differ in important respects from those of younger individuals.

Endoscopic management of the liver transplant patient

The endoscopic evaluation of the asymptomatic liver transplant patient is essential to risk-stratify the patient for future complications related to portal hypertensive bleeding (i.e., presence of large varices), and to exclude findings (e.g., malignancy) that might preclude the patient from consideration of OLT. Because waiting times for transplant are longer after listing, preventive management becomes imperative to diminish attrition on the waiting list and maintain long-term success. Following OLT, endoscopy may be performed to assess a number of common problems: gastrointestinal blood loss that may be caused by anastomotic lesions; persistent portal hypertensive bleeding; biliary complications, including leaks and strictures; and systemic processes (e.g., infectious diseases or lymphoproliferative disorder (LPD). Clearly, endoscopy plays an integral role in the successful management of the patient before and after OLT.