Trophic Cascades in a Formerly Cod-Dominated Ecosystem

Extended fisheries recovery timelines in a changing environment

Rebuilding depleted fish stocks is an international policy goal and a 2020 Aichi target under the Convention on Biological Diversity. However, stock productivity may shift with future climate change, with unknown consequences for sustainable harvesting, biomass targets and recovery timelines. Here we develop a stochastic modelling framework to characterize variability in the intrinsic productivity parameter (r) and carrying capacity (K) for 276 global fish stocks worldwide. We use models of dynamic stock productivity fitted via Bayesian inference to forecast rebuilding timelines for depleted stocks. In scenarios without fishing, recovery probabilities are reduced by 19%, on average, relative to models assuming static productivity. Fishing at 90% of the maximum sustainable rate depresses recovery probabilities by 42%, on average, relative to static models. This work reveals how a changing environmental context can delay the rebuilding of depleted fish stocks, and provides a framework to account for the potential impacts of environmental change on the productivity of wildlife populations more broadly.

Conservation targets in marine protected area management suffer from shifting baseline syndrome: A case study on the Dogger Bank

The Dogger Bank is a subtidal hill in the North Sea that is a candidate Special Area of Conservation under the EU Habitats Directive in UK waters. Historical records indicate that the Bank has been subject to human exploitation from before the 16th century but conservation objectives have been developed using recent survey data. This has the potential to significantly underestimate the alteration this ecosystem has experienced, making the Dogger Bank an example of shifting baseline syndrome in protected area management. We compile quantitative and qualitative descriptions from historical records of change in catch rates, fishing effort, price and fish size to show that there have been prolonged declines in abundance of fish on the Bank since the early 19th century. Use of present day data to inform conservation has led to unambitious recovery targets. Historical data, we argue, are an essential input to conservation decision making.

The effect of top-predator presence and phenotype on aquatic microbial communities

The presence of predators can impact a variety of organisms within the ecosystem, including microorganisms. Because the effects of fish predators and their phenotypic differences on microbial communities have not received much attention, we tested how the presence/absence, genotype, and plasticity of the predatory three‐spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) influence aquatic microbes in outdoor mesocosms. We reared lake and stream stickleback genotypes on contrasting food resources to adulthood, and then added them to aquatic mesocosm ecosystems to assess their impact on the planktonic bacterial community. We also investigated whether the effects of fish persisted following the removal of adults, and the subsequent addition of a homogenous juvenile fish population. The presence of adult stickleback increased the number of bacterial OTUs and altered the size structure of the microbial community, whereas their phenotype affected bacterial community composition. Some of these effects were detectable after adult fish were removed from the mesocosms, and after juvenile fish were placed in the tanks, most of these effects disappeared. Our results suggest that fish can have strong short‐term effects on microbial communities that are partially mediated by phenotypic variation of fish.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding reveals local fish communities in a species-rich coastal sea

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has emerged as a potentially powerful tool to assess aquatic community structures. However, the method has hitherto lacked field tests that evaluate its effectiveness and practical properties as a biodiversity monitoring tool. Here, we evaluated the ability of eDNA metabarcoding to reveal fish community structures in species-rich coastal waters. High-performance fish-universal primers and systematic spatial water sampling at 47 stations covering ~11 km² revealed the fish community structure at a species resolution. The eDNA metabarcoding based on a 6-h collection of water samples detected 128 fish species, of which 62.5% (40 species) were also observed by underwater visual censuses conducted over a 14-year period. This method also detected other local fishes (≥23 species) that were not observed by the visual censuses. These eDNA metabarcoding features will enhance marine ecosystem-related research, and the method will potentially become a standard tool for surveying fish communities.

Stressing the Advantages of Female Leadership Can Place Women at a Disadvantage

Abstract. Women are still underrepresented in management and men hold the majority of higher positions. Nonetheless, one often-heard claim in popular media is that female people-centered leadership skills (empathy, communication, etc.) are a better match for the business world – especially in the future. Furthermore, a related idea is that women may use this advantage to take over men’s dominant position in leadership. Four studies show that such claims paradoxically maintain gender inequality, by undermining support for affirmative action to reduce female underrepresentation in leadership. Where earlier research shows that positive stereotypes can hurt women by suggesting that they are unqualified for leadership, the current findings show that even positive stereotypes that claim that women are particularly well qualified for leadership can hurt women in their chances for gaining leadership positions. Although it is good to highlight the advantages of female leadership, exaggerated and sensationalist claims contribute to a perpetuation of gender inequality.

Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century

Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature-dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985-2004 and 2081-2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature- and oxygen-dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits.

Long time horizon for adaptive management to reveal predation effects in a salmon fishery

Predator-prey interactions shape ecosystem structure and function, potentially limiting the productivity of valuable species. Simultaneously, stochastic environmental forcing affects species productivity, often through unknown mechanisms. The interacting effects of trophic and environmental conditions complicate management of exploited ecosystems and have motivated calls for more holistic management via ecosystem-based approaches, yet the limitations to these approaches are not widely appreciated. The Chignik salmon fishery in Alaska is managed to achieve maximum sustainable yield for sockeye salmon, though research suggests that predation by less economically valuable, and thus not targeted, coho salmon during juvenile rearing limits the productivity of sockeye salmon. We examined the relationship between historical sockeye salmon recruitment and coho salmon abundance observed in the Chignik system and could not detect a clear effect of coho salmon abundance on sockeye salmon productivity, given existing data. Using simulation models, we examined the probability of detecting a known predation effect on sockeye salmon recruitment in the presence of observation error in coho salmon abundance and stochasticity in sockeye salmon recruitment. Increased recruitment stochasticity reduced the ability to detect predator effects in recruitment, an effect further strengthened when low frequency environmental variation was added to the system. Further, increased observation error biased estimates of predator effects towards zero. Thus, in systems with high observation error on predator abundances, estimates of predation effects will be substantially weaker than true effects. We examined the effects of stochasticity on the ability of an adaptive management program to learn about ecosystem structure and detect an effect of management actions intended to release a prey species from its predators. Simulation models revealed that even under scenarios of large predation effects on sockeye salmon, stochastic recruitment masked detection of an effect of increased coho salmon harvest for nearly a decade. These results highlight the challenges inherent in ecosystem-based management of predator-prey systems due to mismatched timescales of ecosystem dynamics and the willingness of stakeholders to risk losses in order to test uncertain hypotheses. It is critical for stakeholders considering EBFM (ecosystem-based fisheries management) and adaptive management strategies to be aware of the potential timelines of perceiving ecosystem change.

Unravelling the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces driving population change in an oceanic predator

In the open ocean ecosystem, climate and anthropogenic changes have driven biological change at both ends of the food chain. Understanding how the population dynamics of pelagic predators are simultaneously influenced by nutrient‐driven processes acting from the “bottom‐up” and predator‐driven processes acting from the “top‐down” is therefore considered an urgent task. Using a state‐space demographic model, we evaluated the population trajectory of an oceanic predator, the Macaroni Penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus), and numerically assessed the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down drivers acting through different demographic rates. The population trajectory was considerably more sensitive to changes in top‐down control of survival compared to bottom‐up control of survival or productivity. This study integrates a unique set of demographic and covariate data and highlights the benefits of using a single estimation framework to examine the links between covariates, demographic rates and population dynamics.

Using insights from animal behaviour and behavioural ecology to inform marine conservation initiatives

The impacts of human activities on the natural world are becoming increasingly apparent, with rapid development and exploitation occurring at the expense of habitat quality and biodiversity. Declines are especially concerning in the oceans, which hold intrinsic value due to their biological uniqueness as well as their substantial sociological and economic importance. Here, we review the literature and investigate whether incorporation of knowledge from the fields of animal behaviour and behavioural ecology may improve the effectiveness of conservation initiatives in marine systems. In particular, we consider (1) how knowledge of larval behaviour and ecology may be used to inform the design of marine protected areas, (2) how protecting species that hold specific ecological niches may be of particular importance for maximizing the preservation of biodiversity, (3) how current harvesting techniques may be inadvertently skewing the behavioural phenotypes of stock populations and whether changes to current practices may lessen this skew and reinforce population persistence, and (4) how understanding the behavioural and physiological responses of species to a changing environment may provide essential insights into areas of particular vulnerability for prioritized conservation attention. The complex nature of conservation programmes inherently results in interdisciplinary responses, and the incorporation of knowledge from the fields of animal behaviour and behavioural ecology may increase our ability to stem the loss of biodiversity in marine environments.

Distribution of mesopredatory fish determined by habitat variables in a predator-depleted coastal system

Shallow nearshore habitats are highly valued for supporting marine ecosystems, but are subject to intense human-induced pressures. Mesopredatory fish are key components in coastal food webs, and alterations in their abundance may have evident effects also on other parts of the ecosystem. The aim of this study was to clarify the relationship between the abundance of coastal mesopredatory fish, defined as mid-trophic level demersal and benthic species with a diet consisting predominantly of invertebrates, and ambient environmental variables in a fjord system influenced by both eutrophication and overfishing. A field survey was conducted over a coastal gradient comprising 300 data points sampled consistently for fish community and environmental data. Results from multivariate and univariate analyses supported each other, demonstrating that mesopredatory fish abundance at species and functional group level was positively related to the cover of structurally complex vegetation and negatively related to eutrophication, as measured by water transparency. Contrary to other studies showing an inverse relationship to piscivore abundance over time, the spatial distribution of mesopredatory fish was not locally regulated by the abundance of piscivorous fish, probably attributed to piscivores being at historically low levels due to previous overfishing. Mesopredatory fish abundance was highest in areas with high habitat quality and positively related to the abundance of piscivores, suggesting a predominance of bottom-up processes. We conclude that, in parallel with ongoing regulations of fishing pressure, measures to restore habitat function and food web productivity are important for the recovery of coastal fish communities in the area.

Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning.

A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea

Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology.

L’évaluation des impacts cumulés dans l’estuaire et le golfe du Saint-Laurent : vers une planification systémique de l’exploitation des ressources

L’intensification de l’empreinte humaine dans l’estuaire et le golfe du Saint-Laurent impose une planification systémique de l’exploitation des ressources marines. Une évaluation régionale des impacts cumulés dans le Saint-Laurent demeure pourtant encore attendue. Un nombre important d’activités (p. ex. transport maritime, pêche, aquaculture) caractérise l’exploitation humaine du Saint-Laurent. Ces activités imposent plusieurs stresseurs environnementaux (p. ex. destruction de l’habitat) affichant un chevauchement spatial croissant. Individuellement, ils peuvent affecter la structure et le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Imposés simultanément, les stresseurs peuvent agir en synergie et entraîner des effets non linéaires imprévisibles. Ces effets demeurent largement incompris et conséquemment ignorés lors d’évaluations d’impacts environnementaux, qui demeurent orientées sur des espèces ou secteurs uniques et l’approbation de projets. Plusieurs défis relatifs aux impacts cumulés dans le Saint-Laurent doivent être relevés : 1) améliorer l’état des connaissances des impacts de multiples stresseurs sur les écosystèmes, 2) améliorer l’applicabilité des méthodes d’évaluation d’impacts cumulés, 3) identifier des indicateurs d’impacts cumulés, 4) créer un protocole de suivi environnemental et d’impacts humains, et de partage de données et 5) développer une capacité de gestion adaptative pour le Saint-Laurent. La planification systémique de l’utilisation des ressources naturelles au sein du Saint-Laurent nécessitera une vision intégrative de la structure et du fonctionnement des écosystèmes ainsi que des vecteurs de stress qui leur sont imposés. Une telle approche ne sera réalisable que lorsque nous aurons développé les infrastructures et les outils nécessaires à une gestion écosystémique du Saint-Laurent.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959-1980 and 1989-2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Characterizing driver-response relationships in marine pelagic ecosystems for improved ocean management

Scientists and resource managers often use methods and tools that assume ecosystem components respond linearly to environmental drivers and human stressors. However, a growing body of literature demonstrates that many relationships are-non-linear, where small changes in a driver prompt a disproportionately large ecological response. We aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of the relationships between drivers and ecosystem components to identify where and when non-linearities are likely to occur. We focused our analyses on one of the best-studied marine systems, pelagic ecosystems, which allowed us to apply robust statistical techniques on a large pool of previously published studies. In this synthesis, we (1) conduct a wide literature review on single driver-response relationships in pelagic systems, (2) use statistical models to identify the degree of non-linearity in these relationships, and (3) assess whether general patterns exist in the strengths and shapes of non-linear relationships across drivers. Overall we found that non-linearities are common in pelagic ecosystems, comprising at least 52% of all driver-response relation- ships. This is likely an underestimate, as papers with higher quality data and analytical approaches reported non-linear relationships at a higher frequency (on average 11% more). Consequently, in the absence of evidence for a linear relationship, it is safer to assume a relationship is non-linear. Strong non-linearities can lead to greater ecological and socioeconomic consequences if they are unknown (and/or unanticipated), but if known they may provide clear thresholds to inform management targets. In pelagic systems, strongly non-linear relationships are often driven by climate and trophodynamic variables but are also associated with local stressors, such as overfishing and pollution, that can be more easily controlled by managers. Even when marine resource managers cannot influence ecosystem change, they can use information about threshold responses to guide how other stressors are managed and to adapt to new ocean conditions. As methods to detect and reduce uncertainty around threshold values improve, managers will be able to better understand and account for ubiquitous non-linear relationships.

Do marine phytoplankton follow Bergmann's rule sensu lato?

Global warming has revitalized interest in the relationship between body size and temperature, proposed by Bergmann's rule 150 years ago, one of the oldest manifestations of a 'biogeography of traits'. We review biogeographic evidence, results from clonal cultures and recent micro- and mesocosm experiments with naturally mixed phytoplankton communities regarding the response of phytoplankton body size to temperature, either as a single factor or in combination with other factors such as grazing, nutrient limitation, and ocean acidification. Where possible, we also focus on the comparison between intraspecific size shifts and size shifts resulting from changes in species composition. Taken together, biogeographic evidence, community-level experiments and single-species experiments indicate that phytoplankton average cell sizes tend to become smaller in warmer waters, although temperature is not necessarily the proximate environmental factor driving size shifts. Indirect effects via nutrient supply and grazing are important and often dominate. In a substantial proportion of field studies, resource availability is seen as the only factor of relevance. Interspecific size effects are greater than intraspecific effects. Direct temperature effects tend to be exacerbated by indirect ones, if warming leads to intensified nutrient limitation or copepod grazing while ocean acidification tends to counteract the temperature effect on cell size in non-calcifying phytoplankton. We discuss the implications of the temperature-related size trends in a global-warming context, based on known functional traits associated with phytoplankton size. These are a higher affinity for nutrients of smaller cells, highest maximal growth rates of moderately small phytoplankton (ca. 10²  µm³ ), size-related sensitivities for different types of grazers, and impacts on sinking rates. For a phytoplankton community increasingly dominated by smaller algae we predict that: (i) a higher proportion of primary production will be respired within the microbial food web; (ii) a smaller share of primary production will be channeled to the classic phytoplankton - crustacean zooplankton - fish food chain, thus leading to decreased ecological efficiency from a fish-production point of view; (iii) a smaller share of primary production will be exported through sedimentation, thus leading to decreased efficiency of the biological carbon pump.

Harvest Pressure on Coastal Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) from Recreational Fishing Relative to Commercial Fishing Assessed from Tag-Recovery Data

Marine recreational fishing is a popular outdoor activity. However, knowledge about the magnitude of recreational catches relative to commercial catches in coastal fisheries is generally sparse. Coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is a target species for recreational fishers in the North Atlantic. In Norway, recreational fishers are allowed to use a variety of traps and nets as well as long-line and rod and line when fishing for cod. From 2005 to 2013, 9729 cod (mean size: 40 cm, range: 15–93 cm) were tagged and released in coastal Skagerrak, southeast Norway. Both high-reward (NOK 500) and low-reward tags (NOK 50) were used in this study. Because some harvested fish (even those posting high-reward tags) may go unreported by fishers, reporting rates were estimated from mark-recovery models that incorporate detection parameters in their structure, in addition to survival and mortality estimates. During 2005 to 2013, a total of 1707 tagged cod were recovered and reported by fishers. We estimate the overall annual survival to be 33% (SE 1.5). Recreational rod and line fishing were responsible for 33.7% (SE 2.4) of total mortality, followed by commercial fisheries (15.1% SE 0.8) and recreational fixed gear (6.8% SE 0.4). Natural mortality was 44.4% (SE 2.5) of total mortality. Our findings suggest that recreational fishing—rod and line fishing in particular—is responsible for a substantial part of fishing mortality exerted on coastal cod in southern Norway.

Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years

Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales.

Resilience and stability of a pelagic marine ecosystem

The accelerating loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide has accentuated a long-standing debate on the role of diversity in stabilizing ecological communities and has given rise to a field of research on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). Although broad consensus has been reached regarding the positive BEF relationship, a number of important challenges remain unanswered. These primarily concern the underlying mechanisms by which diversity increases resilience and community stability, particularly the relative importance of statistical averaging and functional complementarity. Our understanding of these mechanisms relies heavily on theoretical and experimental studies, yet the degree to which theory adequately explains the dynamics and stability of natural ecosystems is largely unknown, especially in marine ecosystems. Using modelling and a unique 60-year dataset covering multiple trophic levels, we show that the pronounced multi-decadal variability of the Southern California Current System (SCCS) does not represent fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning, but a linear response to key environmental drivers channelled through bottom-up and physical control. Furthermore, we show strong temporal asynchrony between key species or functional groups within multiple trophic levels caused by opposite responses to these drivers. We argue that functional complementarity is the primary mechanism reducing community variability and promoting resilience and stability in the SCCS.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies across networked systems. Here, the authors study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures, and find that they spread radially from their origin with an approximately constant velocity.

Fragment edge and isolation affect the food web: effects on the strength of interactions among trophic guilds

Abstract Habitat loss and fragmentation are processes that may affect communities by changing species interactions. These changes occur because the strength of linkages between species is not exclusively dependent on predator and prey traits. Species interaction changes also depend on the spatial context in which they take place. We used structural equation modelling to evaluate effects of these processes at patch-scale on top-down and bottom-up controls in food webs in Atlantic Forest. The model was composed of multiple species, and trophic guilds responded differently to fragment edge and isolation. Changes in bottom-up and top-down controls were mainly related to intermediate predator interactions. Efforts to restore connectivity among fragments should help recover the equilibrium of the trophic interactions by benefiting intermediate predators.

Ecological Insights from Pelagic Habitats Acquired Using Active Acoustic Techniques

Marine pelagic ecosystems present fascinating opportunities for ecological investigation but pose important methodological challenges for sampling. Active acoustic techniques involve producing sound and receiving signals from organisms and other water column sources, offering the benefit of high spatial and temporal resolution and, via integration into different platforms, the ability to make measurements spanning a range of spatial and temporal scales. As a consequence, a variety of questions concerning the ecology of pelagic systems lend themselves to active acoustics, ranging from organism-level investigations and physiological responses to the environment to ecosystem-level studies and climate. As technologies and data analysis methods have matured, the use of acoustics in ecological studies has grown rapidly. We explore the continued role of active acoustics in addressing questions concerning life in the ocean, highlight creative applications to key ecological themes ranging from physiology and behavior to biogeography and climate, and discuss emerging avenues where acoustics can help determine how pelagic ecosystems function.

Motoric impairment following manganese exposure in asteroid echinoderms

In the oceans, naturally occurring manganese (Mn) is released from the sediments during events of hypoxia. While neuro- and immuno-toxic effects of bioavailable manganese are well documented for crustaceans, studies of similar effects of manganese on other marine invertebrates are comparatively few. Here, we developed a new functional test "the repeated turning assay" to investigate if manganese exposure at ∼12 mg L(-1) affected motoric behaviour of two asteroid echinoderms, the Common sea star, Asterias rubens, and the Black brittle star, Ophiocomina nigra. By measuring of the turning-over capacity, from dorsal to ventral position, after one and two weeks of manganese exposure, we showed that for both species Mn exposure significantly delayed the ability to turn. After a recovery period of two weeks, the capacity of turning-over was not restored to that of unexposed animals neither for A. rubens nor for O. nigra. Further investigation of sea stars showed that Mn accumulated ∼5 fold in the tube feet, organs involved in their turning-over activity, and the high concentration remained after the recovery period. In the tube feet we also recorded an increased activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE), here used as a proxy for neuromuscular disturbances. The results indicated that Mn induces neuromuscular disturbance in echinoderms which is important news, given that previous studies have concluded that adult echinoderms are relatively tolerant to Mn.

Spatial patterns and predictors of trophic control in marine ecosystems

A key question in ecology is under which conditions ecosystem structure tends to be controlled by resource availability vs. consumer pressure. Several hypotheses derived from theory, experiments and observational field studies have been advanced, yet a unified explanation remains elusive. Here, we identify common predictors of trophic control in a synthetic analysis of 52 observational field studies conducted within marine ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere and published between 1951 and 2014. Spatial regression analysis of 45 candidate variables revealed temperature to be the dominant predictor, with unimodal effects on trophic control operating both directly (r(2) = 0.32; P < 0.0001) and indirectly through influences on turnover rate and quality of primary production, biodiversity and omnivory. These findings indicate that temperature is an overarching determinant of the trophic dynamics of marine ecosystems, and that variation in ocean temperature will affect the trophic structure of marine ecosystems through both direct and indirect mechanisms.

Testing predator-prey theory using broad-scale manipulations and independent validation

A robust test of ecological theory is to gauge the predictive accuracy of general relationships parameterized from multiple systems but applied to a new area. To address this goal, we used an ecosystem-level experiment to test predator-prey theory by manipulating prey abundance to determine whether predation was density dependent, density independent, compensatory or depensatory (inversely density dependent) on prey populations. Understanding the nature of predation is of primary importance in community ecology because it establishes whether predation has little effect on prey abundance (compensatory), whether it promotes coexistence (density dependent) and reduces the equilibrium of prey (density independent) or whether it can be destabilizing (depensatory). We used theoretical predictions consisting of functional and numerical equations parameterized independently from meta-analyses on wolves (Canis lupus) and moose (Alces alces), but applied to our specific wolf-moose system. Predictions were tested by experimentally reducing moose abundance across 6500 km(2) as a novel way of evaluating the nature of predation. Depensatory predation of wolves on moose was the best explanation of the population dynamic - a mechanism that has been hypothesized to occur but has rarely been evaluated. Adding locally obtained kill rates and numerical estimates to the independent data provided no benefit to model predictions, suggesting that the theory was robust to local variation. These findings have critical implications for any organism that is preyed upon but that also has, or will be, subject to increased human exploitation or perturbations from environmental change. If depensatory predation is not accounted for in harvest models, predicted yields will be excessive and lead to further population decline.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30–80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species.

Kelp forest size alters microbial community structure and function on Vancouver Island, Canada

Bacteria are ubiquitous and important components of marine ecosystems, yet the interaction between bacteria and higher trophic levels remain poorly understood. The trophic cascade involving sea otters, urchins, and kelp in the North Pacific is a classic case of altered ecosystem states; however, its impacts on microbial communities are unknown. We investigated the response of microbial communities to variation in kelp abundance between regions with and without sea otter populations along the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We compared bacterial community structure and function between regions with large and small kelp forests, including an subset of the bacterial community that produces alginate lyase, which allows direct utilization of kelp carbon. The abundance and activity of alginate-lyase-producing bacteria were 3.2 and 1.4 times higher, respectively, in the region with large kelp forests, and declined rapidly with increasing distance from kelp. Total bacterial abundance was 2.7 times greater, and bacteria grew faster and experienced more zooplankton grazing and viral-mediated mortality in the presence of large kelp forests. These patterns suggest that larger kelp forests produce more detritus and dissolved organic matter, which stimulate microbial activity. Our results indicate that variation in kelp forest size alters the community structure and productivity of microbes and contributes to the growing evidence that top predators interact with microbes and ecosystem processes through a cascade of indirect effects.

The body size dependence of trophic cascades

Trophic cascades are indirect positive effects of predators on resources via control of intermediate consumers. Larger-bodied predators appear to induce stronger trophic cascades (a greater rebound of resource density toward carrying capacity), but how this happens is unknown because we lack a clear depiction of how the strength of trophic cascades is determined. Using consumer resource models, we first show that the strength of a trophic cascade has an upper limit set by the interaction strength between the basal trophic group and its consumer and that this limit is approached as the interaction strength between the consumer and its predator increases. We then express the strength of a trophic cascade explicitly in terms of predator body size and use two independent parameter sets to calculate how the strength of a trophic cascade depends on predator size. Both parameter sets predict a positive effect of predator size on the strength of a trophic cascade, driven mostly by the body size dependence of the interaction strength between the first two trophic levels. Our results support previous empirical findings and suggest that the loss of larger predators will have greater consequences on trophic control and biomass structure in food webs than the loss of smaller predators.

Trophic structure of the pelagic food web in the East China Sea

BACKGROUND

Trophic structure and trophic transfer efficiency are among the most fundamental characteristics of an ecosystem. They characterize the transfer of nutrient and energy and are crucial in estimating the yield of harvestable biomass. In this study, we investigated the regulation of trophic structure (phytoplankton, zooplankton, and larval fish abundance) and biomass ratio of zooplankton to phytoplankton (as an indicator of transfer efficiency) in the East China Sea, one of the largest marginal seas in the world and an important fishing ground.

RESULTS

Theresults showed that when sea surface temperature was below 25°C, temperature co-acted with resource availability (zooplankton for larval fish and phytoplankton for zooplankton) in determining the trophic structure. When sea surface temperature was above 25°C, resource availability dominated the regulation of trophic structure. Biomass ratio of zooplankton to phytoplankton decreased with increasing phosphate concentration.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggested that the trophic structure of the East China Sea might be controlled by bottom-up processes, and this control is mediated by temperature.

Implications of fisheries-induced evolution for stock rebuilding and recovery

Worldwide depletion of fish stocks has led fisheries managers to become increasingly concerned about rebuilding and recovery planning. To succeed, factors affecting recovery dynamics need to be understood, including the role of fisheries-induced evolution. Here we investigate a stock's response to fishing followed by a harvest moratorium by analyzing an individual-based evolutionary model parameterized for Atlantic cod Gadus morhua from its northern range, representative of long-lived, late-maturing species. The model allows evolution of life-history processes including maturation, reproduction, and growth. It also incorporates environmental variability, phenotypic plasticity, and density-dependent feedbacks. Fisheries-induced evolution affects recovery in several ways. The first decades of recovery were dominated by demographic and density-dependent processes. Biomass rebuilding was only lightly influenced by fisheries-induced evolution, whereas other stock characteristics such as maturation age, spawning stock biomass, and recruitment were substantially affected, recovering to new demographic equilibria below their preharvest levels. This is because genetic traits took thousands of years to evolve back to preharvest levels, indicating that natural selection driving recovery of these traits is weaker than fisheries-induced selection was. Our results strengthen the case for proactive management of fisheries-induced evolution, as the restoration of genetic traits altered by fishing is slow and may even be impractical.

Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory

Many marine ecosystems have undergone ‘regime shifts’, i.e. abrupt reorganizations across trophic levels. Establishing whether these constitute shifts between alternative stable states is of key importance for the prospects of ecosystem recovery and for management. We show how mechanisms underlying alternative stable states caused by predator–prey interactions can be revealed in field data, using analyses guided by theory on size-structured community dynamics. This is done by combining data on individual performance (such as growth and fecundity) with information on population size and prey availability. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and their prey in the Baltic Sea as an example to discuss and distinguish two types of mechanisms, ‘cultivation-depensation’ and ‘overcompensation’, that can cause alternative stable states preventing the recovery of overexploited piscivorous fish populations. Importantly, the type of mechanism can be inferred already from changes in the predators' body growth in different life stages. Our approach can thus be readily applied to monitored stocks of piscivorous fish species, for which this information often can be assembled. Using this tool can help resolve the causes of catastrophic collapses in marine predatory–prey systems and guide fisheries managers on how to successfully restore collapsed piscivorous fish stocks.

A holistic view of marine regime shifts

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.