Longitudinal Change in Fasting Blood Glucose and Myocardial Infarction Risk in a Population Without Diabetes

Visit-to-visit variability in the measurements of metabolic syndrome components and the risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, and arterial stiffness

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The risk of adverse health conditions varied according to the number of metabolic syndrome components. We aimed to evaluate the risk of mortality and incident cardiovascular events according to the number of components with high variability.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 43,737 Kailuan Study participants with ≥3 examinations of waist circumference, fasting blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein during 2006-2013 were included in the present study. Visit-to-visit variability in each parameter was defined by the intraindividual standard deviation across visits. High variability was defined as the highest quartile of variability. Participants were classified numerically according to the number of high-variability components (e.g., a score of 0 indicated no high-variability component). There were 1551 deaths during a median follow-up of 5.9 years, and 950 incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) cases during a median follow-up of 4.9 years. In the multivariable adjusted model, compared with participants with low variability for all components, participants with ≥3 high-variability components had significantly higher risks for all-cause mortality (hazards ratio [HR], 1.61; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.35-1.91) and incident CVD event (HR, 1.45; 95 % CI, 1.16-1.82). Additionally, participants with ≥3 high-variability components had increased odds of arterial stiffness, as measured by brachia-ankle pulse wave velocity (odds ratio [OR], 1.39; 95 % CI, 1.19-1.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that participants with at least three metabolic parameters with high variability experienced increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality.

Age dependent association between remnant cholesterol and cardiovascular disease

Background and aims

High remnant cholesterol is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether CVD risk attributable to remnant cholesterol vary between young and later adults remains unknown. The study aimed to assess age differences in the association between remnant cholesterol and CVD.

Methods

This prospective study included 95 663 participants without CVD and lipid-lowering treatment at baseline, including 16 254 young adults (age 18-39 years) and 79 409 later adults (age ≥40 years). Individuals were grouped by clinically meaningful remnant cholesterol concentrations of <0.50, 0.50-0.99, 1.00-1.49, and ≥1.50 mmol/L. Multivariable Cox regressions were performed to calculate hazard ratio (HR).

Results

During a median follow-up of 11.01 years, 164 incident CVD were identified in young adults, and 6081 cases in later adults. After multivariate adjustment, the association between remnant cholesterol and CVD was more pronounced in young adults than later adults (P for interaction=0.0019), the HR was 2.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-3.47) for young individuals with remnant cholesterol ≥1.50 mmol/L, compared to individuals with remnant cholesterol <0.50 mmol/L, while the corresponding HR was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.13-1.29) for later adults. Furthermore, the population attributable risk percentage for remnant cholesterol < 1.50 vs ≥ 1.50 mmol/L was also higher in young (14.8%) than later adults (4.2%).

Conclusions

Despite a lower incidence risk of CVD among young adults compared later adults, the stronger association and greater attributable risk of remnant cholesterol among young adults highlight the importance of preventive efforts across the adult life course.

Level of systolic blood pressure within the normal range and risk of cardiovascular events in the absence of risk factors in Chinese

The risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at currently defined normal systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels in individuals without CVD risk factors is not well examined. We evaluated whether higher systolic blood pressure within the range considered normal is associated with a higher CVD risk in Chinese without traditional CVD risk factors. The community-based study included 25,529 individuals (mean age:47.3 ± 12.3 years;range:18–95 years) with a baseline SBP of 90–129 mmHg, who were free of CVD and traditional CVD risk factors, and who were re-examined in biennial intervals. During a mean follow-up of 10.6 ± 1.49 years (maximum. 11.5 years), 847 CVD events occurred. CVD incidence per 1000 person-years increased with higher baseline SBP levels (SBP,90–99 mmHg:1.45;100–109 mmHg:2.15;110–119 mmHg:3.06; and 120–129 mmHg:3.80). After adjusting for CVD risk factors, the categorical Cox regression suggested that the CVD risk was not statistically significant for study participants with a baseline SBP level of 100–109 mmHg, 110–119 mmHg, and 120–129 mmHg compared with those with a baseline SBP level of 90–99 mmHg. If CVD risk factors including blood pressure categories which developed during follow-up were included in a time-dependent Cox regression analysis, the normal baseline SBP was still not associated with incident CVDs. A SBP between 90 and 129 mmHg was not associated with an increased CVD risk in a healthy population.

Longitudinal changes in fasting plasma glucose are associated with risk of cancer mortality: A Chinese cohort study

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have suggested that fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was associated with the risk of mortality. However, relationship on longitudinal changes of FPG with the risk of mortality remained inconsistent.

METHODS

We examined the association of FPG at baseline and its longitudinal changes with risk of mortality based on a cohort study in Yinzhou, China, during 2010-2018. Cox regression models and competing risk models were separately used to examine the association of FPG levels and long-term fluctuation with risk of total and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Subjects who had an impaired fasting glucose or diabetes suffered a higher risk of total mortality than subjects who had a normal fasting glucose (HRs and 95% CIs: 1.17 [1.01-1.35], 1.30 [1.10-1.53], respectively). The HR for total mortality was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.29-1.84) and for cancer mortality was 1.41 (95% CI: 1.04-1.92) in the highest quartile of coefficient of variation of FPG. Trajectory analysis indicated that subjects with a significantly changed FPG suffered a higher risk of total mortality.

CONCLUSION

According to this cohort study, we found that long-term fluctuation of FPG was significantly associated with the risk of total and cancer mortality. Our findings suggest that long-term fluctuation of FPG could be used as an efficient indicator for predicting the subsequent risk of mortality.

Association between egg consumption and arterial stiffness: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Inconsistent associations between egg consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk have been observed in previous studies. This study aims to longitudinally investigate the association between egg consumption and altered risk of arterial stiffness, a major pre-clinical pathogenic change of CVD, which was assessed by brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV).

METHODS

A total of 7315 Chinese participants from the Kailuan Study, free of CVD and cancer were included in this study. Egg consumption was assessed by a semi-quantitative validated food frequency questionnaire in 2014. baPWV was repeatedly measured at baseline and during follow-up (mean follow-up: 3.41 years). General linear regression was used to calculate means of baPWV change rate across different egg consumption groups, adjusting for age, sex, baseline baPWV, healthy eating index, total energy, social-economic status, blood pressure, obesity, smoking, lipid profiles, and fasting glucose concentrations.

RESULTS

Compared to the annual baPWV change rate in participants with 0-1.9 eggs/wk. (adjusted mean: 35.9 ± 11.2 cm/s/y), those consuming 3-3.9 eggs/wk. (adjusted mean: 0.2 ± 11.4 cm/s/y) had the lowest increase in baPWV during follow-up (P-difference = 0.002). Individuals with low (0-1.9 eggs/wk) vs. high (5+ eggs /wk) egg intake showed similar changes in baPWV.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large-scale longitudinal analysis, we did not find a significant difference in arterial stiffness, as assessed by baPWV level, between low and high egg consumption groups. However, moderate egg consumption (3-3.9 eggs/wk) appeared to have beneficial effects on arterial stiffness.

Cumulative Serum Uric Acid and Its Time Course Are Associated With Risk of Myocardial Infarction and All-Cause Mortality

Background Serum uric acid (SUA) has been demonstrated as a risk factor for myocardial infarction (MI) and all-cause mortality; however, the impact of cumulative SUA (cumSUA) remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association of cumSUA with MI risk and all-cause mortality, and to further explore the effects of SUA accumulation time course. Methods and Results The study enrolled 53 463 participants without a history of MI, and these participants underwent 3 examinations during 2006 to 2010. cumSUA from baseline to the third examination was calculated, multiplying mean values between consecutive examinations by time intervals between visits. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of MI and all-cause mortality for cumSUA quartiles, hyperuricemia exposure duration, and SUA accumulation time course. During a median follow-up of 7.04 years, 476 incident MIs and 2692 deaths occurred. In the fully adjusted model, a higher MI risk was observed in the highest cumSUA quartile (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.10-1.99), in participants with longer hyperuricemia exposure duration (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.06-2.73), and in participants with cumSUA≥median and a negative slope (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.18-2.11). Similar associations persisted for all-cause mortality. Conclusions The risk of MI and all-cause mortality increased with higher cumSUA and was affected by the SUA accumulation time course. Early SUA accumulation contributed more to MI risk and all-cause mortality than later SUA accumulation with the same overall cumulative exposure, emphasizing the importance of optimal SUA control early in life.

Sarcopenia and Appendicular Muscle Mass as Predictors of Impaired Fasting Glucose/Type 2 Diabetes in Elderly Women

Elderly women exhibit a high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but no definitive data exist about the possible role of postmenopausal increases in visceral adiposity, the loss of lean body mass, or decreases in the sum of the lean mass of arms and legs (appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASMM)). This retrospective, longitudinal study investigated whether body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis) predicted the development of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or T2D in a cohort of 159 elderly women (age: 71 ± 5 years, follow-up: 94 months) from southern Italy (Clinical Nutrition and Geriatric Units of the “Mater Domini” University Hospital in Catanzaro, Calabria region, and the “P. Giaccone ”University Hospital in Palermo, Sicily region). Sarcopenia was defined in a subgroup of 128 women according to the EWGSOP criteria as the presence of low muscle strength (handgrip strength <16 kg) plus low muscle mass (reported as appendicular skeletal muscle mass <15 kg). Participants with a low ASMM had a higher IFG/T2D incidence than those with a normal ASMM (17% vs. 6%, p-adjusted = 0.044); this finding was independent of BMI, fat mass, waist circumference, and habitual fat intake (OR = 3.81, p = 0.034). A higher incidence of IFG/T2D was observed in the subgroup with sarcopenia than those without sarcopenia (33% vs. 7%, p-adjusted = 0.005) independent of BMI and fat mass (OR = 6.75, p = 0.007). In conclusion, this study demonstrates that elderly women with low ASMM had a higher probability of developing IFG/T2D. Further studies are needed to confirm these results in men and in other age groups.

Change in triglyceride-glucose index predicts the risk of cardiovascular disease in the general population: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies has shown a significant relationship between baseline triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the effect of longitudinal changes in TyG index on the risk of CVD remains uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the association between change in TyG index and the risk of CVD in the general population.

METHODS

The current study included 62,443 Chinese population who were free of CVD. The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2], and change in TyG index was defined as the difference between the TyG index in 2010 and that in 2006. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline analysis were used to examine the association between change in TyG index and the risk of CVD.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 7.01 years, 2530 (4.05%) incident CVD occurred, including 2018 (3.23%) incident stroke and 545 (0.87%) incident myocardial infarction (MI). The risk of developing CVD increased with the quartile of change in TyG index, after adjustment for multiple potential confounders, the hazard ratios for the Q4 group versus the Q1 group were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-1.54) for the overall CVD, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.19-1.60) for stroke, and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.05-1.76) for MI. Restricted cubic spline analysis also showed a cumulative increase in the risk of CVD with increases in the magnitude of change in TyG index. The addition of change in TyG index to a baseline risk model for CVD improved the C-statistics (P = 0.0097), integrated discrimination improvement value (P < 0.0001), and category-free net reclassification improvement value (P < 0.0001). Similar results were observed for stroke and MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial changes in TyG index independently predict the risk of CVD in the general population. Monitoring long-term changes in TyG may assist with in the early identification of individuals at high risk of CVD.

Serum Uric Acid Is a Mediator of the Association Between Obesity and Incident Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Obesity has been demonstrated to show a consistent link with the increased possibility of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Since both serum uric acid (SUA) and obesity are essential components of metabolic syndrome (MetS), it is uncertain whether the incidence of NAFLD results from serum uric acid, obesity, or other potential factors based on previous studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study enrolled 16,839 participants with no history of alcohol consumption and no fatty liver disease in 2010. All participants completed a survey which included health and lifestyle questionnaires, and underwent physical examination, ultrasonography, and laboratory examinations of blood samples. After the four-year follow up, 5,104 (30.31%) participants were diagnosed with NAFLD. The associations between SUA, BMI or obesity, and incident NAFLD were assessed by multivariate linear regression, logistic regression analysis, and mediation analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

By adjusting demographic and serum characteristics, linear correlation coefficients between obesity and SUA were 20.26 [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 15.74, 24.77), 13.31 (95% CI: 6.63, 19.99) and 22.21 (95% CI: 16.41, 28.02) in the total population, and in the female and male groups, respectively. The odds ratios were 2.49 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.87) in the total population, 5.71 (95% CI: 2.25, 14.45) in the female group and 1.99 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.45) in the male group for the correlation between obesity and incident NAFLD. The mediation analysis showed that SUA contributed to 10.03%, 0.58%, and 12.54% of obesity-related NAFLD development in the total population, females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings showed mediation linkages of both obesity and SUA with the incident NAFLD. The role of SUA as a mediator constitutes clinical significance that should be recognized and considered.

Total cholesterol, alanine aminotransferase and the risk of primary liver cancer: A population-based prospective study

Previous studies have shown that serum total cholesterol (TC) and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) are associated with liver cancer risk. However, the common contribution of TC and normal-high ALT to primary liver cancer (PLC) has not been reported. We aim to assess the separate and joint effect of low TC level and normal-high ALT level on the risk of PLC, a large prospective cohort was conducted in our study.The participants were divided into 4 groups via the cross-matching method according to TC [low level (-)/non-low level (+)] and ALT [normal level (-)/normal-high level(+)] status, and using the lower quartile value of TC and the upper quartile value of ALT as a threshold, respectively. Incident PLC was confirmed by review of medical records. Cox proportional hazards regression models and interactive additive models were used to evaluate whether the joint effect of low TC level and normal-high ALT level is associated with the risk of PLC.During 1,248,895 person-years follow-up, 298 participants were diagnosed with PLC among 114,972 subjects. In male population, TC < 4.24 mmol/L was group "TC (-)"; TC ≥ 4.24 mmol/L was group "TC (+)"; ALT < 23 U/L was group "ALT (-)": 33 U/L ≥ ALT ≥ 23 U/L was group "ALT (+)". Compared with the group "TC (+)", group "ALT (-)", respectively, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for PLC risk was 1.74 (1.36-2.25) in group "TC (-)" and 1.49 (1.15-1.94) in group "ALT (+)". In combinatorial analysis, compared with group "TC (+) and ALT (-)", the significant increased risk of PLC were observed in group "TC (+) and ALT (+)" (HR = 1.41; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.02-1.95), group "TC (-) and ALT (-)" (HR = 1.67; 95%CI: 1.24-2.27) and group "TC (-) and ALT (+)" (HR = 2.72; 95%CI: 1.81-4.09), respectively. However, no statistical significance was found among female.The separate and joint effect of low TC level and normal-high ALT level was observed for PLC risk in males. When combined, individuals with coexistence of low TC level and normal-high ALT level significantly increase the risk of PLC.

Changes in serum uric acid and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in the general population

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Longitudinal evidence on change in serum (SUA) with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality is limited, as many prior studies focused on baseline SUA. Further, the optimal threshold range of SUA change is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 63,127 participants without history of CVD were enrolled. Change in SUA was determined by the difference of SUA levels between 2006 and 2010, which divided by baseline SUA was percent change in SUA. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculated the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Our analysis also included restricted cubic spline model and three-piecewise Cox proportion hazards model to address the non-linearity between percent change in SUA and outcomes. During a median follow-up of 7.04 years, 3341 CVD and 3238 deaths occurred. We did not observed a significant association between changes in SUA and CVD. However, changes in SUA at extreme were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality, the HRs (95% CIs) were 1.15 (1.02-1.29) and 1.20 (1.06-1.35) in the first and fifth quintile group, compared with the third quintile group. We further found a U-shaped association between percent change in SUA and all-cause mortality, and the optimal range was within 20%.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in SUA at extreme were risk factors for all-cause mortality, but not for CVD in the general population. The findings are relevant for role of SUA in the management of CVD risk and may contribute to improve identification of patients at higher risk.

Associations of Type 2 Diabetes Onset Age With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: The Kailuan Study

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to explore the associations between type 2 diabetes onset age and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in the Chinese population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 101,080 participants free of prevalent diabetes and CVD at baseline from the Kailuan Study. All participants were monitored biennially until 31 December 2017. During follow-up, 11,384 participants were diagnosed as having type 2 diabetes. For each case subject, one control subject was randomly selected, matched for age (± 1 years) and sex. The final analysis comprised 10,777 case-control pairs. Weighted Cox regression models were used to evaluate the average hazard ratios (AHRs) and 95% CIs of incident CVD and all-cause mortality among patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes versus control subjects across age-groups.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.57 years, 1,794 incident events (907 CVD events, of which there were 725 strokes and 887 deaths) occurred. After adjustment for potential confounders, participants with type 2 diabetes diagnosed at age <45 years had the highest relative risks of CVD and all-cause mortality relative to the matched control subjects, with AHRs of 3.21 (95% CI 1.18-8.72) for CVD, 2.99 (95% CI 1.01-9.17) for stroke, and 4.79 (95% CI 1.95-11.76) for all-cause mortality. The risks gradually attenuated with each decade increase in type 2 diabetes onset age.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative risks of CVD and all-cause mortality differed across type 2 diabetes onset age-groups, and the associations were more evident in younger-onset type 2 diabetes.

Early onset of hyperuricemia is associated with increased cardiovascular disease and mortality risk

BACKGROUND

Hyperuricemia is associated with cardiovascular mortality, but the association of the age at hyperuricemia onset with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality is still unclear.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine the associations of hyperuricemia onset age with CVD and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

A total of 82,219 participants free of hyperuricemia and CVD from 2006 to 2015 in the Kailuan study were included. The analysis cohort comprised 18,311 new-onset hyperuricemia patients and controls matched for age and sex from the general population. Adjusted associations were estimated using Cox models for CVD and all-cause mortality across a range of ages.

RESULTS

There were 1,021 incident cases of CVD (including 215 myocardial infarctions, 814 strokes) and 1459 deaths during an average of 5.2 years of follow-up. Patients with hyperuricemia onset at an age < 45 years had the highest hazard ratios (HRs) (1.78 (1.14-2.78) for CVD and 1.64 (1.04-2.61) for all-cause mortality relative to controls). The HRs of CVD and all-cause mortality were 1.32 (1.05-1.65) and 1.40 (1.08-1.81) for the 45-54 years age group, 1.23 (0.97-1.56) and 1.37 (1.11 to 1.72) for the 55-64 years age group, and 1.10 (0.88-1.39) and 0.88 (0.76-1.01) for the ≥ 65 years age group, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The age at hyperuricemia onset was identified as an important predictor of CVD and all-cause mortality risk, and the prediction was more powerful in those with a younger age of hyperuricemia onset. Early onset of hyperuricemia is associated with increased cardiovascular disease and mortality risk.

Recommending encounters according to the sociodemographic characteristics of patient strata can reduce risks from type 2 diabetes

Objectives

Physician encounters with patients with type 2 diabetes act as motivation for self-management and lifestyle adjustments that are indispensable for diabetes treatment. We elucidate the sociodemographic sources of variation in encounter usage and the impact of encounter usage on glucose control, which can be used to recommend encounter usage for different sociodemographic strata of patients to reduce risks from Type 2 diabetes.

Data and methods

We analyzed data from a multi-facility clinic in the Midwestern United States on 2124 patients with type 2 diabetes, from 95 ZIP codes. A zero-inflated Poisson model was used to estimate the effects of various ZIP-code level sociodemographic variables on the encounter usage. A multinomial logistic regression model was built to estimate the effects of physical and telephonic encounters on patients’ glucose level transitions. Results from the two models were combined in marginal effect analyses.

Results and conclusions

Conditional on patients’ clinical status, demographics, and insurance status, significant inequality in patient encounters exists across ZIP codes with varying sociodemographic characteristics. One additional physical encounter in a six-month period marginally increases the probability of transition from a diabetic state to a pre-diabetic state by 4.3% and from pre-diabetic to the non-diabetic state by 3.2%. Combined marginal effect analyses illustrate that a ZIP code in the lower quartile of high school graduate percentage among all ZIP codes has 1 fewer physical encounter per six months marginally compared to a ZIP code at the upper quartile, which gives 5.4% average increase in the probability of transitioning from pre-diabetic to diabetic. Our results suggest that policymakers can target particular patient groups who may have inadequate encounters to engage in diabetes care, based on their immediate environmental sociodemographic characteristics, and design programs to increase their encounters to achieve better care outcomes.

Baseline and change in serum uric acid predict the progression from prehypertension to hypertension: a prospective cohort study

Evidence is lacking about the role of serum uric acid (SUA) in the progression from prehypertension to hypertension. Herein, we aimed to investigate the association of both baseline and dynamic change in SUA with the risk of hypertension developing from prehypertension. The study enrolled 11,488 participants with prehypertension during 2006-2010 from the Kailuan study. Change in SUA was assessed as % change of SUA from 2006 (baseline) to 2010. Participants were categorized into four groups by quartiles of baseline and change in SUA, separately. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to calculation the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). During a median follow-up of 7.06 years, 2716 (23.64%) participants developed hypertension from prehypertension. In the multivariable-adjusted model, the OR for hypertension comparing participants in the highest versus the lowest quartile of baseline SUA were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.02-1.36). Increased SUA over time was also associated with elevated risk of hypertension (OR in the highest quartile was 1.41 [95% CI, 1.23-1.62] versus the lowest quartile), especially in those with baseline SUA ≥ median (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.21-1.81). Moreover, the addition of SUA to a conventional risk model had an incremental effect on the predictive value for hypertension (integrated discrimination improvement 0.30%, P < 0.0001; category-free net reclassification improvement 12.36%, P < 0.0001). Both high initial SUA and increased SUA over time can independently predict the progression from prehypertension to hypertension. Strategies aiming at controlling SUA level in prehypertensive subjects may impede the onset of hypertension.

Visit-to-visit variability of serum uric acid measurements and the risk of all-cause mortality in the general population

Background

Evidence on longitudinal variability of serum uric acid (SUA) and risk of all-cause mortality in the general population is limited, as many prior studies focused on a single measurement of SUA.

Methods

A total of 53,956 participants in the Kailuan study who underwent three health examinations during 2006 to 2010 were enrolled. Variability of SUA was measured using the coefficient of variation (primary index), standard deviation, average real variability, and variability independent of the mean. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the association of variability of SUA with subsequent risk of all-cause mortality, considering its magnitude and the direction and across different baseline SUA categories.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 7.04 years, 2728 participants died. The highest variability of SUA was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, the HR was 1.33 (95% CI, 1.20–1.49) compared with the lowest variability. In this group, both a large fall (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.14–1.44) and rise (HR, 1.18; 95% 1.05–1.32) in SUA were related to risk of all-cause mortality. These associations were similar across different baseline SUA categories. Consistent results were observed in alternative measures of SUA variability. Moreover, individuals with higher variability in SUA were more related to common risk factors than those with stable SUA.

Conclusions

Higher variability in SUA was independently associated with the risk of all-cause mortality irrespective of baseline SUA and direction of variability in the general population.

Alcohol consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and mortality: a prospective cohort study

Background

Studies regarding whether light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have generated mixed results. Further, few studies have examined the potential impact of alcohol consumption on diverse disease outcomes simultaneously. We aimed to prospectively study the dose-response association between alcohol consumption and risk of CVD, cancer, and mortality.

Methods

This study included 83,732 adult Chinese participants, free of CVD and cancer at baseline. Participants were categorized into 6 groups based on self-report alcohol consumption: 0, 1–25, 26–150, 151–350, 351–750, and > 750 g alcohol/wk. Incident cases of CVD, cancers, and mortality were confirmed by medical records. Hazard ratios (HRs) for the composite risk of these three outcomes, and each individual outcome, were calculated using Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

During a median follow-up of 10.0 years, there were 6411 incident cases of CVD, 2947 cancers and 6646 deaths. We observed a J-shaped relation between alcohol intake and risk of CVD, cancer, and mortality, with the lowest risk at 25 g/wk., which is equivalent to ~ 2 servings/wk. Compared to consuming 1–25 g/wk., the adjusted HR for composite outcomes was 1.38 (95% confidence interval (CI):1.29–1.49) for non-drinker, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.04–1.27) for 26–150 g/wk., 1.22 (95% CI: 1.10–1.34) for 151–350 g/wk., 1.33 (95% CI: 1.21–1.46) for 351–750 g/wk., and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.30–1.90) for > 750 g/wk., after adjusting for age, sex, lifestyle, social economic status, and medication use.

Conclusions

Light alcohol consumption at ~ 25 g/wk was associated with lower risk of CVD, cancer, and mortality than none or higher consumption in Chinese adults.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12937-021-00671-y.

Total cholesterol, arterial stiffness, and systolic blood pressure: a mediation analysis

On the basis of 45,092 participants (mean age of 54.04 ± 13.09 years) from the Kailuan study, this study was performed to explore the relationships among total cholesterol (TC), brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (BaPWV), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) and quantify their separate effects. The correlations among TC, SBP, and BaPWV were analyzed using multivariate linear regression models. Mediation analysis was performed to determine whether the effect of TC on SBP can be explained by arterial stiffness. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that for every one standard deviation increase in TC and BaPWV, SBP increased by 0.33 mmHg and 0.044 mmHg, respectively; for every one standard deviation increase in TC, BaPWV increased by 5.34 cm/s. Mediation analysis showed that the TC-induced SBP elevation was mediated by arterial stiffness in more than half of the whole cohort (indirect effect, 0.73; percent mediated, 54.5%). Furthermore, the TC-induced SBP elevation was mediated by arterial stiffness in less than half of the males (indirect effect, 0.70; percent mediated, 47.9%); however, the results were not statistically significant in females. In conclusion, TC and BaPWV are positively correlated with SBP, whereas TC is positively correlated with BaPWV. Almost half of the increase in SBP contributed to TC is mediated by arterial stiffness.

Association of Age of Onset of Hypertension With Cardiovascular Diseases and Mortality

BACKGROUND

The relations of hypertension onset age with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality remain inconclusive.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to examine the associations of hypertension onset age with CVD and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

This prospective study included 71,245 participants free of hypertension and CVD in the first survey (July 2006 to October 2007) of the Kailuan study, a prospective cohort study in Tangshan, China. All participants were followed biennially until December 31, 2017. A total of 20,221 new-onset hypertension cases were identified during follow-up. We randomly selected 1 control participant for each new-onset hypertensive participant, matching for age (±1 year) and sex, and included 19,887 case-control pairs. We used weighted Cox regression models to calculate the average hazard ratios of incident CVD and all-cause mortality across the age groups.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 6.5 years, we identified 1,672 incident CVD cases and 2,008 deaths. After multivariate adjustment, with the increase in hypertension onset age, the hazards of outcomes were gradually attenuated. The average hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of CVD and all-cause mortality were 2.26 (1.19 to 4.30) and 2.59 (1.32 to 5.07) for the hypertension onset age <45 years old group, 1.62 (1.24 to 2.12) and 2.12 (1.55 to 2.90) for the 45- to 54-year age group, 1.42 (1.12 to 1.79) and 1.30 (1.03 to 1.62) for the 55- to 64-year age group, and 1.33 (1.04 to 1.69) and 1.29 (1.11 to 1.51) for the ≥65-year age group, respectively (p for interaction = 0.38 for CVD and <0.01 for death).

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension was associated with a higher risk for CVD and all-cause mortality, and the associations were stronger with a younger age of onset.

Triglyceride-glucose index is associated with the risk of myocardial infarction: an 11-year prospective study in the Kailuan cohort

Background

The triglyceride–glucose (TyG) index, which is a simple surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has been suggested as a contributor of cardiovascular disease. However, evidence on the effect of long-term elevation of the TyG index exposure on myocardial infarction (MI) is limited. The current study aimed to evaluate the association of baseline and long-term elevation of the TyG index exposure with the risk of MI.

Methods

A total of 98,849 participants without MI at baseline (2006) were enrolled from the Kailuan study. The baseline TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The long-term TyG index was characterized in two ways as follows. The updated mean TyG index was calculated as the mean of TyG index at all previous visits before MI occurred or the end of follow-up; alternatively, the TyG index was calculated as the number of visits with a high TyG index in 2006, 2008, and 2010, ranging from 0 (no exposure) to 3 (had high TyG index at all three study visits). Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated using multivariable Cox proportion hazard models.

Results

During a median follow-up of 11.03 years, 1555 incident MI occurred. In the multivariable-adjusted model, the risk of MI increased with quartiles of the baseline and updated mean TyG index, the HR in quartile 4 versus quartile 1 was 2.08 (95% CI,1.77–2.45) and 1.58 (1.18–2.12), respectively. Individuals with a high TyG index at all three visits had a 2.04-fold higher risk (95% CI, 1.63–2.56) of MI compared with no exposure. Subgroup analyses showed that the associations were more pronounced in women than in men (P_interaction = 0.0411).

Conclusions

Elevated levels of the baseline and long-term TyG index are associated with an increased risk of MI. This finding indicates that the TyG index might be useful in identifying people at high risk of developing MI.

Association Between Longitudinal Change in Abnormal Fasting Blood Glucose Levels and Outcome of COVID-19 Patients Without Previous Diagnosis of Diabetes

This retrospective study examined changes in fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels during hospitalization and their effect on risk of death for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients without previously diagnosed diabetes. A model with low- and high-stable pattern trajectories was established based on a longitudinal change in FBG levels. We analyzed FBG trajectory-associated clinical features and risk factors for death due to COVID-19. Of the 230 enrolled patients, 44 died and 87.83% had a low-stable pattern (average FBG range: 6.63-7.54 mmol/L), and 12.17% had a high-stable pattern (average FBG range: 12.59-14.02 mmol/L). There were statistical differences in laboratory findings and case fatality between the two FBG patterns. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that increased neutrophil count (odds ratio [OR], 25.43; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.07, 313.03), elevated direct bilirubin (OR, 5.80; 95%CI: 1.72, 19.58), elevated creatinine (OR, 26.69; 95% CI: 5.82, 122.29), lymphopenia (OR, 8.07; 95% CI: 2.70, 24.14), and high-stable FBG pattern (OR, 8.79; 95% CI: 2.39, 32.29) were independent risk factors for higher case fatality in patients with COVID-19 and hyperglycemia but no history of diabetes. FBG trajectories were significantly associated with death risk in patients with COVID-19 and no diabetes.

A prospective study of waist circumference trajectories and incident cardiovascular disease in China: the Kailuan Cohort Study

Background

Single measurements of waist circumference (WC) predict the incident cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, long-term patterns of WC and their association with the incidence of CVD are poorly characterized.

Objective

We aimed to identify WC trajectories and determine their association with incident CVD (stroke and myocardial infarction) and examine whether the association persisted among individuals without obesity.

Methods

We included 75,535 participants from a community-based cohort in China who were aged &gt;18 y and free of stroke, coronary artery disease, and cancer in 2010 (the baseline). WC and other covariates were repeatedly measured in 2006, 2008, and 2010. WC trajectories were identified by latent mixture modeling. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association between WC trajectories and incident CVD, after adjustment for age, sex, income, education, systolic blood pressure, lipid profiles, plasma concentrations of glucose, C-reactive protein, smoking, and alcohol drinking.

Results

We identified 4 WC trajectories based on 2006 WC measurement and change patterns during 2006–2010: low stable (n = 12,072; mean WC 74.1–75.1 cm), moderate stable (n = 41,750; mean WC 85.1–86.6 cm), moderate-high stable (n = 19,914; mean WC 95.6–97.2 cm), and high stable (n = 1,799; mean WC 106.3–110.9 cm). During 2010–2016, we documented 2819 incident CVD events. Compared with the low-stable group, groups with elevated WC trajectories had a higher risk of CVD events during 6 y of follow-up (2010–2016). Adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 1.49 (1.21, 1.83) for the moderate stable group, 1.71(1.38, 2.12) for the moderate-high stable group, and 1.45 (1.06, 2.00) for the high stable group. After further adjusting for BMI or excluding obese participants, we observed similar results. The positive association between WC and incident CVD was higher in individuals who were aged &lt;60 y (P-interaction &lt; 0.0001).

Conclusions

WC trajectory patterns were associated with altered risk of CVD among Chinese adults, even among people without BMI-defined obesity. When stratifying by age, the association was observed to be higher in younger adults.

Severity of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Risk of Future Ischemic Stroke Events

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We assessed prospectively whether nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its severity predict future ischemic stroke (IS) events in a community-based cohort.

METHODS

From the Kailuan study, participants free of history of stroke, cancer, or myocardial infarction were enrolled after excluding alcohol abuse and other liver diseases. NAFLD was evaluated through ultrasonography. Participants with NAFLD were further stratified into mild, moderate, and severe groups. The outcome was the first occurrence of IS. The secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction and combined vascular events. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs of incident IS according to presence and severity of NAFLD, adjusting for age, sex, physical activity, body mass index, smoker, history of hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, lipid-lowering medication, HDL (high-density lipoprotein), triglyceride, hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), and fasting blood glucose.

RESULTS

During a median of 10.34 years of follow-up, we documented 3490 incident stroke cases among 79 905 participants. NAFLD was found in 24 874 (31.18%) participants. Relative to participants without NAFLD at the baseline, those with NAFLD had a 16% higher risk (95% CI, 1.07-1.26) of developing ischemic stroke, after adjusted for confounding variables. The hazard ratios for patients with mild, moderate, and severe NAFLD were 1.15 (95% CI, 1.05-1.25), 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06-1.34), and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.08-1.50), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The severity of NAFLD is associated with a higher risk of future ischemic stroke events.

Estimated pulse wave velocity and cardiovascular events in Chinese

The estimated pulse-wave velocity (ePWV) as measure for arterial wall stiffness is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVDs) and all-cause death in Western populations. We investigated the association between ePWV and the incidence of CVDs (myocardial infarction, cerebral infarction, cerebral hemorrhage) and all-cause death in Chinese. The community-based longitudinal Kailuan Study included 98,348 participants undergoing biennial clinical examinations. During a mean follow-up of 10.32 ± 2.14 years, 6967 CVD events (myocardial infarction, n = 1610; cerebral infarction, n = 4634; cerebral hemorrhage, n = 1071) and 9780 all-cause deaths occurred. Stratified by age, sex and presence of cardiovascular risk factors, the incidence of CVDs and all-cause death were higher (P < 0.01) in individuals with ePWV values ≥ 10 m/s than in those with ePWV values < 10 m/s. After adjusting for age, age squared and other conventional cardiovascular risk factors, an ePWV value of ≥10 m/s or each ePWV increase by 1 m/s increased (P < 0.01) the risk for CVDs by 32% (Hazard ratio (HR):1.32; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.23–1.42) and 22% (HR:1.22; 95%CI:1.18–1.27), respectively, and increased the risk for all-cause death significantly (P < 0.01) by 28% (HR:1.28; 95%CI:1.20–1.37) and 10% (HR:1.10; 95%CI:1.07–1.13), respectively. The mean brachial-ankle PWV, measured in 43,208 individuals, was 15.30 ± 3.51 cm/s, with a mean difference of 6.45 m/s (95% limits of agreement:1.24–11.7) to the ePWV. Independently of cardiovascular risk factors, ePWV was associated with CVDs and all-cause mortality in Chinese.

The Association Between Glycemic Variability and Myocardial Infarction: A Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies and Randomized Trials

Diabetes mellitus is a major risk factor for vascular complications and mortality, glycemic variability (GV) has emerged as a measure of time and magnitude of plasma glucose, its association with cardiovascular complications is controversial. The current study aimed to assess the association of GV with myocardial infarction. An electronic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Medline, and Google Scholar databases for relevant articles. Articles in the English language during the period from 2010 to April 2020 were eligible. The keywords fasting blood glucose variability (FBGV), glucose variability, myocardial infarction, and acute coronary syndrome, were used with the protean OR and AND. Out of the 185 articles retrieved, only seven full texts fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The author's name, year of publication, the study type, number of patients, and the results were extracted. There were seven full texts, one from Brazil, one from Australia, two from the USA, and three from Asia. Two were randomized controlled trials and five were prospective cohorts (included 109,058 participants). A significant negative association was found between GV and myocardial infarction, odd ratio (OD) 1.93, 95% CI=1.08-3.44, P-value=0.03, I2 for heterogeneity=87%, P-value=0.0001. However, it is difficult to reach a conclusion due to the small number of the included studies and the high heterogeneity observed. Further well-controlled trials using the same methods are needed to resolve the issue.

Effects of individual and integrated cumulative burden of blood pressure, glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and C-reactive protein on cardiovascular risk

Aim

This study aimed to demonstrate the impact of cumulative burden of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) on risk of cardiovascular events (CVEs).

Methods and results

A total of 34 959 participants were enrolled who participated in the four surveys during 2006–2013. Cumulative CVRF burden was calculated as number of years (2006–2013) multiplied by the values of CVRFs including systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose (FBG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). The primary outcome was defined as the CVE during 2012–2017, including ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality. During 4.62 (±0.71) years follow-up on average, there were 2118 (6.06%) CVE, including 847 (2.42%) ischaemic stroke, 221 (0.63%) myocardial infarction, and 1185 (3.39%) all-cause mortality. Higher cumulative burden of individual CVRF was significantly associated with increased risk of outcomes, except for LDL-C for all-cause mortality, FBG for myocardial infarction, and hs-CRP for ischaemic stroke. In Cox proportional hazards model, compared with the group, of the lower quartile of integrated cumulative burden, the hazard ratio (95% confidence intervals) of the upper quartile was 2.45 (2.03–2.94) for CVE, 3.65 (2.68–4.96) for ischaemic stroke, 4.51 (2.19–9.27) for myocardial infarction, and 1.73 (1.36–2.21) for all-cause mortality.

Conclusion

We demonstrated the correlation between cumulative burden of CVRFs and cardiovascular risk, except for cumulative burden of hs-CRP and ischaemic stroke. Thus, our study suggests the necessity to extend the observation duration of CVRFs in order to elucidate the life-course cumulative effect.

Isolated diastolic hypertension as defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline and incident cardiovascular events in Chinese

OBJECTIVE

The new arterial hypertension guidelines by the 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) changed the definition of isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH). We assessed and compared in a Chinese population the IDH prevalence, newly defined by the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines versus the former definition by the Joint National Committee 7 (JNC7) criteria, and examined longitudinal associations of IDH with cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes.

METHODS

The prospective community-based Kailuan Study included participants aged 18-98 years who underwent a detailed medical examination at baseline in 2006/2007 and who were biennially re-examined till 2017. History of antihypertensive medication at baseline was an exclusion criterion.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 87 346 individuals (mean age: 50.9 years; range: 18-98 years). Prevalence of IDH was 7.79% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.62, 7.97] by JNC7 guidelines and 24.72% (95% CI: 24.43, 25.01) by 2017 ACC/AHA criteria [difference: 19.93% (95% CI: 16.81, 17.04)]. Applying the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines, the prevalence of IDH-recommended antihypertensive therapy was 7.73% (95% CI: 7.55, 7.90). In multivariable analysis, IDH by JNC7 criteria was significantly associated with incident myocardial infarction [n = 93 events; hazard ratio: 1.30 (95 CI: 1.02, 1.66)], cerebral hemorrhage [n = 73 events; hazard ratio: 1.79 (95% CI: 1.35, 2.38)], and total CVD [n = 373 events; hazard ratio: 1.15 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.30)], when compared with normotension. IDH based on 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines was associated with incident cerebral hemorrhage [n = 129 events; hazard ratio: 1.47 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.94)] and total CVD [n = 828 events; hazard ratio: 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.26)].

CONCLUSION

In this adult Chinese community, 2017 ACC/AHA-defined IDH was associated with the incidence of cerebral hemorrhage and total CVD, and as compared with JNC7-defined IDH, it was more prevalent.

Arterial Stiffness Preceding Diabetes: A Longitudinal Study

RATIONALE

Previous studies on the relationship between diabetes and arterial stiffness were mostly cross-sectional. A few longitudinal studies focused on one single direction. Whether the association between arterial stiffness and diabetes is bidirectional remains unclear to date.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the temporal relationship between arterial stiffness and fasting blood glucose (FBG) status.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Included were 14 159 participants of the Kailuan study with assessment of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) from 2010 to 2015, and free of diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic kidney disease at baseline. FBG and baPWV were repeatedly measured at baseline and follow-ups. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident diabetes across baseline baPWV groups: <1400 cm/s (ref), 1400≤ baPWV <1800 cm/s, and ≥1800 cm/s. Path analysis was used to analyze the possible temporal causal relationship between baPWV and FBG, among 8956 participants with repeated assessment of baPWV and FBG twice in 2010 to 2017. The mean baseline age of the observed population was 48.3±12.0 years. During mean 3.72 years of follow-up, 979 incident diabetes cases were identified. After adjusting for potential confounders, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for risk of diabetes was 1.59 (1.34-1.88) for the borderline arterial stiffness group and 2.11 (1.71-2.61) for the elevated arterial stiffness group, compared with the normal ideal arterial stiffness group. In the path analysis, baseline baPWV was associated with follow-up FBG (the standard regression coefficient was 0.09 [95% CI, 0.05-0.10]). In contrast, the standard regression coefficient of baseline FBG for follow-up baPWV (β=0.00 [95% CI, -0.02 to 0.02]) was not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Arterial stiffness, as measured by baPWV, was associated with risk of developing diabetes. Arterial stiffness appeared to precede the increase in FBG.

Habitual Night Eating Was Positively Associated With Progress of Arterial Stiffness in Chinese Adults

Background

Night eating has been associated with an elevated risk of obesity, dyslipidemia, and cardiovascular disease. However, there is no longitudinal study on whether habitual night eating, regardless of diet quality and energy intake, is associated with arterial stiffness, a major etiological factor in the development of cardiovascular disease.

Methods and Results

The study included 7771 adult participants without cardiovascular disease, cancer, or diabetes mellitus prior to dietary assessment by a validated food frequency questionnaire in 2014 through 2015. Participants were categorized into 3 groups based on self‐reported night‐eating habits: never or rarely, some days (1–5 times per week), or most days (6+ times per week). Arterial stiffness was assessed by brachial‐ankle pulse wave velocity at baseline and repeatedly during follow‐ups. Mean differences and 95% CIs in the yearly change rate of brachial‐ankle pulse wave velocity across the 3 groups were calculated, adjusting for age, sex, socioeconomic status, total energy intake, diet quality, sleep quality, and other cardiovascular disease risk factors. At baseline, 6625 (85.2%), 610 (7.8%), and 536 (6.9%) participants reported night eating as never or rarely, some days, or most days, respectively. During a mean 3.19 years, we observed a positive association between night‐eating frequency and progression of arterial stiffness (P trend=0.01). The adjusted difference in brachial‐ankle pulse wave velocity change rate between the group that ate at night most days and the group that never or rarely ate at night was 14.1 (95% CI, 0.6–27.5) cm/s per year. This association was only significant in women, but not in men (P interaction=0.03).

Conclusions

In an adult population free of major chronic diseases, habitual night eating was positively associated with the progression of arterial stiffness, a hallmark of arteriosclerosis and biological aging.

Registration

URL: https://www.chictr.org.cn; Unique identifier: ChiCTR‐TNRC‐11001489.

Effect of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability on cardiovascular events in populations with different body mass indexes: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study was performed to explore the effects of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) on cardiovascular events (CVEs) in people with various body mass indexes (BMIs).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

The average real variability of systolic blood pressure (ARV_SBP) was the indicator for visit-to-visit BPV. The participants were divided into three groups: normal weight, overweight and obesity. We further divided these groups into four subgroups based on the ARV_SBP. A Cox regression model was used to calculate the HRs of the ARV_SBP on CVEs in the same and different BMI groups. Additionally, a competitive risk model was used to calculate the HRs of the ARV_SBP on CVEs in the same BMI group.

PARTICIPANTS

In total, 41 043 individuals met the inclusion criteria (no historical CVEs or tumours, no incidence of CVEs or tumours and no death during the four examinations) and had complete systolic blood pressure and BMI data.

RESULTS

A total of 868 CVEs occurred. The cumulative incidence of CVEs increased as ARV_SBP rose in both the normal weight and overweight groups. In same BMI groups, the risk of CVEs significantly increased as ARV_SBP increased only in the normal weight group (highest quartiles of ARV_SBP: HR (95% CI) 2.20 (1.46-3.31)). In the different BMI groups, the risk of CVEs in the ARV_SBP subgroup in each BMI group was higher than that the least quintile of ARV_SBP in the normal weight group (highest quartiles of ARV_SBP in obesity: HR (95% CI) 2.28 (1.47-3.55)). The result of the competitive risk model did not change.

CONCLUSIONS

As BMI and ARV_SBP increase, the risk of CVEs increases. However, the risk of visit-to-visit BPV on CVEs varies in different BMI groups, especially in people of normal weight.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CHiCTR-TNC1100 1489.

Prolonged hyperlipidemia exposure increases the risk of arterial stiffness in young adults: a cross-sectional study in a cohort of Chinese

BACKGROUND

Hyperlipidemia is associated with arterial stiffness. Herein, We examined the effect of prolonged exposure to hyperlipidemia on the risk of arterial stiffness in young adults.

METHODS

A study cohort (35-55 years old) that received health check-ups in the Kailuan study (2014-2016) were assessed. Hyperlipidemia was defined as a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL according to the Chinese Guidelines for the Management of Dyslipidemia in Adults. Subjects were divided into three groups based on the number of years with hyperlipidemia: normal (0 years), low exposure (1-5 years), and high exposure (5-10 years) groups. Arterial stiffness was defined as brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity > 1400 cm/s. For all subjects and subjects that did not meet statin treatment criteria under guidelines, logistics regression was used to analyze the effect of prolonged hyperlipidemia exposure on arterial stiffness in different age groups.

RESULTS

Among 12,431 subjects, the mean age was 46.42 ± 5.34 years with 9000 men (72.4%). Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity gradually increased with increased exposure duration. Logistic regression analysis showed that hyperlipidemia exposure was a risk factor for arterial stiffness in the low (1.22 times) and high (1.49 times) exposure groups compared with the normal group. In the different age groups, the risk of arterial stiffness increased with the duration of hyperlipidemia exposure, apart for the 35-40-year-old population. The effect of hyperlipidemia exposure duration on arterial stiffness in young adults that did not meet statin treatment criteria under guidelines was similar to the general population.

CONCLUSIONS

Prolonged exposure to hyperlipidemia in young adults increases the risk of arterial stiffness. Young adults with this condition may benefit from more aggressive primary prevention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Name of the registry: Risk factors and intervention for cardiology, cerebrovascular and related disease (Kailuan Study) Trial registration number: CHiCTR-TNC1100 1489 Date of registration: Aug 24, 2011 URL of trial registry record: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=8050.

The trajectory of high sensitivity C-reactive protein is associated with incident diabetes in Chinese adults

Background

We performed a cohort study to evaluate the association between the CRP trajectory and incident diabetes in Chinese adults.

Methods

Included were 6439 adults (4111 men and 2249 women; aged 46.6 ± 11.9 years). The concentration of high sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) was measured in 2013 (baseline), 2014, and 2015. The hs-CRP trajectory was identified based the above three measurements by latent mixture modeling. Incident diabetes cases were diagnosed by fasting blood glucose (≥126 mg/dl) or Hb A1c (≥6.5%) during subsequent 3 years (2016–2018).

Results

Hs-CRP concentration during 2013–2015 was classified into 3 levels: low (< 1.0 mg/L), moderate (1.0–3.0 mg/L), and high (≥3.0 mg/L) based on a statement by American Heart Association. We named four hs-CRP trajectories as following: “low-stable” (low in 2013 and maintained at low concentration in 2014 and 2015), “moderate-fluctuated” (moderate in 2013, then increased to high concentration in 2014, and decreased to low concentration in 2015), “high-decreased” (high in 2013 but decreased to moderate concentration in 2014 and 2015), and “moderate-increased (moderate in 2013 and increased to high concentration in 2014 and 2015)”. We identified 235 incident diabetes during subsequent 3 years. The adjusted HR for incident diabetes was 1.71 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.87) comparing the moderate-increased and the low-stable group, after adjusting for potential confounders. In the secondary analyses, two single-measured hs-CRP concentration (in 2013 or in 2015) and the average of hs-CRP were associated with high risk of diabetes (P-trend< 0.01 for all).

Conclusions

The hs-CRP trajectory pattern was associated with altered incident diabetes in Chinese adults.

Perceived dietary salt intake and the risk of primary liver cancer: a population-based prospective study

BACKGROUND

Although a high-salt diet is associated with high risk of chronic diseases such as hypertension, stroke and cardiovascular disease, little is known about the relationship between a high-salt diet and the risk of primary liver cancer (PLC). Consequently, we prospectively assessed the association of high perceived salt intake with the risk of PLC in the Kailuan Study.

METHODS

In total, 97 006 participants who were healthy adults or free living adults at the baseline (2006) were included in the present study. The data of perceived salt intake were collected via questionnaire and classified into three categories: <6 g day^-1 for low salt intake, 6-10 g day^-1 for intermediate salt intake, >10 g day^-1 for high-salt intake. PLC including hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (excluding liver metastasis), and was confirmed by review of medical records. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to analyse the association between high perceived salt diet and the risk of PLC after adjusting for possible confounders, including age, gender, body mass index, high sensitivity-C-reactive protein, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, total cholesterol, triglycerides, alanine aminotransferase, HbsAg positive, cirrhosis, fatty liver, hypertension, diabetes, drinking status, smoking status and physical exercise.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period of 1 113 816 person-years, 397 PLC events were diagnosed. After adjusting for most potential confounders, subjects in intermediate salt intake and high salt intake had a multivariable hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of 1.49 (0.97-2.29) and 1.98 (1.22-3.22) (P for trend = 0.0042), respectively, compared to low salt intake.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher perceived salt intake was associated with a higher risk of PLC.

Blood Pressure Classification of 2017 Associated With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Young Chinese Adults

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association introduced new guidelines for blood pressure (BP) classification in 2017. We explored associations between the newly defined categories and eventual cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, stroke, and all-cause mortality in young Chinese adults. In the community-based Kailuan Study, 16 006 participants aged 18 to 40 years and examined at baseline in 2006/2007 underwent 2-yearly follow-up examinations up to 2016 to 2017. Taking the highest BP reading recorded by manual sphygmomanometry at baseline in 2006 to 2007, we categorized the BP according to the new guidelines. Outcome parameters were CVD events, stroke, and all-cause mortality. During follow-up (mean: 10.9±0.63 years), we observed 458 events (CVD, 167; stroke, 119; and all-cause death, 172). After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios for CVD events were for elevated BP 0.80 (95% CI, 0.28-2.30), stage 1 hypertension 1.82 (95% CI, 1.12-2.94), and stage 2 hypertension 3.54 (95% CI, 2.18-5.77) versus normal BP. Similar results were obtained for stroke and all-cause death. In Cox regression analysis with BP category entered as time-dependent covariate, stage 1 hypertension was not associated with increased risk (P>0.10). In the subgroup of individuals taking antihypertensive medication during follow-up, none of the BP categories was significantly associated with the incidence of CVD events. During a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, the newly defined category of stage 1 hypertension in young untreated Chinese adults aged <40 years at baseline was associated with an increased risk for CVD, stroke, and all-cause mortality. This increased risk occurred, however, after progression to stage 2 hypertension. The data may help validating the new BP classification system for young adult Chinese.

Longitudinal Average Glucose Levels and Variance and Risk of Stroke: A Chinese Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a known independent risk factor for stroke. However, whether higher glucose levels (126-139.9 mg/dl) can increase the risk of stroke in people without diabetes is still unknown. Moreover, as a fluctuating parameter, long-term glucose levels may also be related to the risk of stroke outcome. It is important to explore the correlation between long-term average blood glucose, as well as its variability, and stroke.

METHODS

We used 40,975 clinical measurements of glucose levels and 367 measurements of glycated hemoglobin A1c levels from 12,321 participants without stroke to examine the relationship between glucose levels and the risk of stroke. Participants were from the Weitang Geriatric Diseases study, including 5,707 men and 6,614 women whose mean age at baseline was 60.8 years; 1,011 participants had diabetes, and 11,310 did not. We estimated the long-term average blood glucose level based on the multilevel Bayesian model and fit in Cox regression models, stratified according to diabetes status.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 5 years, stroke developed in 279 of the 12,321 participants (244 without diabetes and 35 with). For people with an average glucose level of 126-139.9 mg per deciliter, compared with 90-99.9 mg per deciliter, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for total stroke was 1.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.16-2.75), and the HR for levels higher than 140 mg per deciliter was 1.89 (95% CI, 1.09-3.29). Among those without diabetes whose glucose level was higher than 140 mg per deciliter, compared with 90-99.9 mg per deciliter, the adjusted HRs for total stroke and fatal stroke were 3.66 (95% CI, 1.47-9.08) and 5 (95% CI, 1.77-14.15), respectively. For a glucose standard deviation level higher than 13.83 mg per deciliter, compared with that lower than 5.91 mg per deciliter, the adjusted HR for total stroke was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.19-4.48).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that higher average glucose levels (126-139.9 mg/dl) and variance may be risk factors for stroke, even among people without diabetes diagnosis.

Change in glucose intolerance status and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Background

To assess the impact of changes in different glucose tolerance states on risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD)/coronary heart disease (CHD).

Methods

A total of 4094 Iranians (43.9% men) aged ≥ 30 years, without diabetes and CVD at enrolment were included. The following categories were defined both at baseline visit and 3 years later (second visit): normal fasting glucose (NFG), normal glucose tolerance (NGT), NFG and NGT (NFG/NGT), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and IFG and/or IGT (IFG/IGT). Changes in the categories, i.e. regression to normoglycemia, remaining in previous status and progression to diabetes were assessed. We used Cox’s proportional hazard models adjusted for traditional risk factors and their changes, to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of different changing categories for incident CVD/CHD.

Results

During a median follow-up of 12.42 years, 428 subjects (men = 265) experienced CVD. Considering persistent NFG/NGT as reference, participants who shifted from NFG/NGT to IFG/IGT showed a lower hazard of CVD in the fully adjusted model, HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.52–0.996, P = 0.048]. Moreover, subjects who shifted from IFG, IGT and IFG/IGT to diabetes had an increased risk of CVD/CHD. The risk however, was only statistically significant for those with IFG/IGT, 1.61 [(1.03–2.51), P = 0.04] for CVD and 1.75 [(1.10–2.78), P = 0.02] for CHD; considering IFG/IGT at both visits as reference. Furthermore, those who regressed from IFG/IGT to normoglycemia were at the same risk as those remained in IFG/IGT state, 1.12 [(0.79–1.60), P = 0.52] for CVD and 1.04 [(0.70–1.53), P = 0.85] for CHD. Among a subgroup of population with insulin data (n = 803) those with insulin resistance (IR) that converted to diabetes showed a higher risk for CVD, 3.68 [(1.49–9.06), P = 0.01] and CHD, 2.76 [(1.00–7.60), P = 0.05] events in the fully adjusted model.

Conclusions

Among participants with IFG, IGT or IFG/IGT at baseline, only those who developed diabetes had a higher risk of developing CVD/CHD. Persistent IFG/IGT was not associated with higher risk, compared with those reverted to normoglycemia. Moreover, subjects who converted from NFG/NGT to incident IFG/IGT showed a signal for lower risk of CVD/CHD.

Short sleep duration is associated with inadequate hydration: cross-cultural evidence from US and Chinese adults

Study Objectives

Short and long sleep durations are linked to reduced kidney function, but little research has examined how sleep is associated with hydration status. Our aim was to assess the relationship between sleep duration and urinary hydration biomarkers among adults in a cross-cultural context.

Methods

Three samples of adults aged ≥20 years were analyzed: 2007-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; n = 4680), 2009-2012 NHANES (n = 9559), and 2012 cross-sectional wave of the Chinese Kailuan Study (n = 11903), excluding pregnant women and adults with failing kidneys. We estimated multiple linear regression models between self-reported usual night-time sleep duration (<6, 6, 7, 8 (reference), and ≥9 hr/day) and urine specific gravity (Usg) and urine osmolality (Uosm) as continuous variables and logistic regression models dichotomized as inadequate hydration (>1.020 g/mL; >831 mOsm/kg). In primary analyses, we estimated models excluding diabetes and diuretic medications for healthier subpopulations (NHANES, n = 11353; Kailuan, n = 8766).

Results

In the healthier NHANES subset, 6 hr was associated with significantly higher Usg and odds of inadequate hydration (adjusted OR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.25, 2.03) compared with 8 hr. Regression results were mixed using Uosm, but in the same direction as Usg. Among Chinese adults, short sleep duration (<6 and 6 hr) was associated with Usg and higher likelihood of inadequate hydration (6 hr adjusted OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.26, 1.60). No consistent association was found with sleeping ≥9 hr.

Conclusions

Short sleep duration was associated with higher odds of inadequate hydration in US and Chinese adults relative to sleeping 8 hr.

Predictive value of random blood glucose versus fasting blood glucose on in-hospital adverse events in patients with ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction

Background

We aim to find out the relationship between random blood glucose (RBG), fasting blood glucose (FBG) and in-hospital adverse events in ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. We evaluate and compare the predictive value of RBG and FBG on in-hospital adverse events, and give an appropriate cut-off value of RBG and FBG.

Method

A retrospective study enrolled 958 consecutive AMI patients undergoing emergency coronary angiography at Zhongda Hospital were enrolled from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2018 was performed. RBG and FBG, baseline data and adverse events were recorded. Major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) were defined as death, nonfatal recurrent myocardial infarction and stroke. Other adverse events included malignant arrhythmia, cardiac shock and hemorrhage. Patients with RBG > 11.1 mmol/L were divided into elevated RBG group. Patients with FBG > 6.1 mmol/L were divided into elevated FBG group. The incidence of in-hospital adverse events were compared in elevated RBG/FBG group and the control group. ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of RBG and FBG on in-hospital adverse events.

Result

The incidence of death, hemorrhage, cardiac shock and malignant arrhythmia significantly increases in elevated RBG and FBG group. Binary logistic regression showed that age, hypertension, diabetes, FBG and RBG were independent risk factors for in-hospital adverse events in STEMI patients. The AUC and 95% CI of RBG and FBG in predicting death of AMI patients were 0.789, 0.759~0.816; 0.810, 0.783~0.835, respectively. The cut-off values ​were 13.82 and 7.35 mmol/L. RBG and FBG also had fine predictive value on cardiac shock and malignant arrhythmia, no statistical difference was found in the predictive value on in-hospital adverse events (P = 0.462, P = 0.570, P = 0.694).

Conclusion

Incidence of in-hospital adverse events significantly increases in AMI patients combined with elevated RBG or FBG. Both RBG and FBG were independent risk factors for in-hospital adverse events, they had good value on predicting in-hospital adverse events and there was no statistical difference in their predictive value.

Longitudinal Trajectories of Fasting Plasma Glucose and Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Middle Age to Elderly People Within the General Japanese Population: The Suita Study

Background

Few previous studies used information on changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) assessed at multiple points in time in relationship to cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence. The present study aimed to identify subgroups of FPG trajectories with assessing CVD incidence.

Methods and Results

The present study was based on the Suita study, a population‐based cohort study in Japan. The primary outcome was incidence of the first CVD events consisting of stroke and coronary heart diseases between 1989 and 2013. The main exposure was FPG assessed every 2 years. We used joint latent class mixed models to derive FPG trajectories over time while evaluating cumulative incidence of CVD, and categorized participants into several subgroups based on those trajectories and cumulative incidence. We observed 356 and 243 CVD events during the median follow‐up of 17.2 and 20.2 years among 3120 men and 3482 women, respectively. The joint latent mixed models found 3 subgroups in men and 2 subgroups in women. Of the 3 subgroups in men, 1 subgroup had FPG levels that increased sharply (96.5–205.0 mg/dL from aged 40 to 80 years) and higher CVD cumulative incidence. Of the 2 subgroups in women, 1 subgroup had FPG levels that increased sharply (97.7–190.5 mg/dL from aged 40 to 80 years) and tended to have slightly higher CVD incidence compared with the other subgroup.

Conclusion

It can be important to manage CVD risk factors especially for people whose FPG trajectories sharply increased to prevent CVD.

The association between fasting blood glucose trajectory and cancer risk in Chinese population without diabetes

To examine the associations between fasting blood glucose (FBG) trajectories, the changes in FBG over time and the risk of cancer, particularly for gastrointestinal cancer, we enrolled 69,742 participants without diabetes from the Kailuan cohort. FBG trajectories (2006-2010) were modeled by group-based trajectory modeling, and five trajectories were identified: low-increasing (n = 6,275), moderate-stable (n = 44,120), moderate-increasing (n = 10,149), elevated-decreasing (n = 5,244) and elevated-stable (n = 3,954). A total of 1,364 cancer cases were accumulated between 2010 and 2015, including 472 gastrointestinal cancer cases. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the associations between FBG trajectory patterns and the risk of cancer. We further assessed the associations while carefully controlling for initial body mass index (BMI) in 2006 and for changes in BMI during 2006-2010. Relative to the moderate-stable group, we found a higher hazard ratio (HR) for overall cancer in the low-increasing group (HR = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.50); and for gastrointestinal cancer in the elevated-stable group (HR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.22-2.26). Moreover, among participants with an initial BMI ≥25 kg/m² , a positive association with the low-increasing group was observed for both overall cancer and gastrointestinal cancer (HR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.17-2.04; HR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.02-2.66; respectively); among participants with a stable BMI (4.40% loss-5.15% gain), a positive association with the elevated-stable group was observed both for overall cancer and gastrointestinal cancer (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.10-1.87; HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.33-2.86; respectively). Our study observed that FBG trajectories were associated with cancer risk among participants without diabetes, and BMI may modify the associations.

Aging and cancer: Is glucose a mediator between them?

Aging can increase cancer incidence because of accumulated mutations that initiate cancer and via compromised body control of premalignant lesions development into cancer. Relative contributions of these two factors are debated. Recent evidence suggests that the latter is rate limiting. In particular, hyperglycemia caused by compromised body control of blood glucose may be a factor of selection of somatic mutation-bearing cells for the ability to use glucose for proliferation. High glucose utilization in aerobic glycolysis is a long known characteristic of cancer. The new evidence adds to the concepts that have been being developed starting from mid-1970ies to suggest that age-related shifts in glucose and lipid metabolism increase the risk of cancer and compromise prognoses for cancer patients and to propose antidiabetic biguanides, including metformin, for cancer prevention and as an adjuvant means of cancer treatment aimed at the metabolic rehabilitation of patients. The new evidence is consistent with several effects of glucose contributing to aging and acting synergistically to enhance carcinogenesis. Glucose can affect (i) separate cells (via promoting somatic mutagenesis and epigenetic instability), (ii) cell populations (via being a factor of selection of phenotypic variants in cell populations for higher glucose consumption and, ultimately, for high aerobic glycolysis); (iii) cell microenvironment (via modification of extracellular matrix proteins), and (iv) the systemic levels (via shifting the endocrine regulation of metabolism toward increasing blood lipids and body fat, which compromise immunological surveillance and promote inflammation). Thus, maintenance of youthful metabolic characteristics must be important for cancer prevention and treatment.

Aging, Arterial Stiffness, and Blood Pressure Association in Chinese Adults

Arterial stiffness and blood pressure (BP) both increase with aging synchronously. Whether elevated BP results from thickening of arterial wall or vice versa is controversial in previous studies. This study included 17 862 participants without history of myocardial infarction, stroke, atrial fibrillation or flutter, or cancer and with brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and BP measurements during 2010 to 2016. Age was calculated from the self-reported birthdate to the first date of baPWV examination. Mediation analyses were applied to assess the mediation effect by baPWV in the association between age and BP. Temporal relation between baPWV and BP was assessed by cross-lagged analyses among 1508 participants with repeated assessment of baPWV. We found that systolic BP increased 0.47 (95% CI, 0.45-0.49) mm Hg per 1 year older by the mediation effect of baPWV and that the direct effect of aging on systolic BP was -0.07 (95% CI, -0.09 to -0.05) mm Hg per 1 year older. The standard regression coefficient from baseline baPWV to follow-up systolic BP was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.04-0.15), which was greater than the standard regression coefficient from baseline systolic BP to follow-up baPWV (0.01; 95% CI, -0.04 to 0.06). Arterial stiffness mediated the positive association between aging and BP, and arterial stiffness might precede elevated BP. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn . Unique identifier: ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489.

Prospective study of hemoglobin A1c and incident carotid artery plaque in Chinese adults without diabetes

Background

Diabetes has been reported to be associated with carotid artery plaque (CAP). However, it remains unclear whether hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level, a marker for long-term glycemic status, is associated with altered CAP risk in individuals with fasting blood glucose (FBG) concentrations below the current cutoff for diabetes.

Methods

Included were 16,863 Chinese adults (aged 18 years or more; 9855 men and 7008 women) with fasting blood glucose < 7.0 mmol/L at baseline (2013). Both HbA1c level and CAP (assessed via ultrasound B-mode imaging) were annually assessed during 2014–2018. All the participants were further classified into three groups based on baseline HbA1c level: ≤ 5.6%, 5.7–6.4%, and ≥ 6.5%. We used Cox proportional-hazards model to evaluate the association between HbA1c level and incident CAP, adjusting for a series of potential confounders.

Results

During 5 years of follow up, 3942 incident CAP cases were identified. Individuals with higher baseline HbA1c had higher future risk of CAP (p-trend < 0.001). In the full-adjusted model, each percent increase of HbA1c was associated with a 56% (HR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.37, 1.78) higher risk of CAP. Excluding participants with chronic inflammation, as assessed by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and white blood cell, and those with FBG ≥ 5.6 mmol/L at baseline generated similar results.

Conclusions

Elevated HbA1c level was associated with high risk of developing CAP in Chinese adults without FBG defined diabetes.

Association of Trajectory of Cardiovascular Health Score and Incident Cardiovascular Disease

Importance

The American Heart Association 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target an improvement in overall cardiovascular health, as assessed by 7 health metrics (smoking, body weight, physical activity, diet, plasma glucose level, plasma cholesterol level, and blood pressure).

Objective

To examine whether trajectories of overall cardiovascular health over time, as assessed by the cardiovascular health score (CHS) in 2006, 2008, and 2010, are associated with subsequent risk of CVD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Kailuan study is a prospective, population-based study that began in 2006. The cohort included 74 701 Chinese adults free of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cancer in or before 2010. In the present study, CHS trajectories were developed from 2006 to 2010 to predict CVD risk from 2010 to 2015. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2015.

Exposures

The CHS trajectories during 2006-2010 were identified using latent mixture models.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident CVD events (myocardial infarction and stroke) during 2010-2015 were confirmed by review of medical records. The CHS trajectories were determined using 7 cardiovascular health metrics scored as poor (0 points), intermediate (1 point), and ideal (2 points); total score ranges from 0 (worst) to 14 (best). Based on the baseline CHS and patterns over time, 5 trajectories were categorized (low-stable, moderate-increasing, moderate-decreasing, high-stable I, and high-stable II).

Results

Of the 74 701 adults included in the study (mean [SD] age at baseline, 49.6 [11.8] years), 58 216 (77.9%) were men and 16 485 (22.1%) were women. Five CHS trajectories were identified from 2006 to 2010: low-stable (n = 4393; range, 4.6-5.2), moderate-increasing (n = 4643; mean increase from 5.4 to 7.8), moderate-decreasing (n = 14 853; mean decrease from 7.4 to 6.3), high-stable I (n = 36 352; range, 8.8-9.0), and high-stable II (n = 14 461; range, 10.9-11.0). During 5 years of follow-up, 1852 incident CVD cases were identified. Relative to the low-stable trajectory, the high-stable II trajectory was associated with a lower subsequent risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.16-0.26, after adjusting for age, sex, educational level, income, occupation, alcohol intake, and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration at baseline).

Conclusions and Relevance

Cardiovascular health trajectories may be associated with subsequent CVD risk.

Tea Consumption and Longitudinal Change in High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Concentration in Chinese Adults

Background

The relation between tea consumption and age‐related changes in high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL‐C) concentrations remains unclear, and longitudinal human data are limited. The aim of current study was to examine the relation between tea intake and longitudinal change in HDL‐C concentrations.

Methods and Results

Baseline (2006) tea consumption was assessed via a questionnaire, and plasma HDL‐C concentrations were measured in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012 among 80 182 individuals (49±12 years of age) who did not have cardiovascular diseases or cancer, or did not use cholesterol‐lowering agents both at baseline (2006) and during the follow‐up period (2006–2012). The associations between baseline tea consumption and rate of change in HDL‐C concentrations were examined using generalized estimating equation models. Tea consumption was inversely associated with a decreased rate of HDL‐C concentrations (P‐trend <0.0001) in the fully adjusted model. The adjusted mean difference in the HDL‐C decreased rate was 0.010 (95% confidence interval, 0.008, 0.012) mmol/L per year for tea consumers versus nonconsumers (never or less than once/month group). Interactions between tea consumption and age, sex, lifestyle scores, and metabolic syndrome (all P‐interaction <0.0001) were identified. The associations between greater tea consumption and slower decrease in HDL‐C concentrations were more pronounced in men, individuals aged 60 or older, individuals with a lower lifestyle score, and individuals with metabolic syndrome (all P‐trend <0.0001).

Conclusions

Tea consumption was associated with slower age‐related decreases in HDL‐C concentrations during 6 years of follow‐up.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.chictr.org. Unique identifier: ChiCTR‐TNRC‐11001489.

The effect of change in fasting glucose on the risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality: a nationwide cohort study

Background

The effect of change in blood glucose levels on the risk of cardiovascular disease among individuals without diabetes is currently unclear. We aimed to examine the association of change in fasting serum glucose with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality among representative large population.

Methods

We analyzed the data from retrospective cohort of Korean National Health Insurance Service. In total, 260,487 Korean adults aged over 40 years, without diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease at baseline measured change in fasting serum glucose according to the criteria of impaired and diabetic fasting glucose status: normal fasting glucose (NFG, fasting glucose: < 100 mg/dL), impaired fasting glucose (IFG, fasting glucose: 100.0–125.9 mg/dL), and diabetic fasting glucose (DFG, fasting glucose: ≥ 126.0 mg/dL). Compared to the persistently unchanged group (i.e. NFG to NFG or IFG to IFG), Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed in the changed group to obtain the hazards ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the subsequent median 8-year myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality.

Results

Compared to individuals with persistent NFG (i.e., NFG to NFG), individuals who shifted from NFG to DFG had an increased risk of stroke (HR [95% CI]: 1.19 [1.02–1.38]) and individuals who shifted from NFG to IFG or DFG had increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI]: 1.08 [1.02–1.14] for NFG to IFG and 1.56 [1.39–1.75] for NFG to DFG). Compared to individuals with persistent IFG, individuals who shifted from IFG to DFG had an increased risk of MI and all-cause mortality (HR [95% CI]: 1.65 [1.20–2.27] and 1.16 [1.02–1.33], respectively).

Conclusions

Increasing fasting glucose in non-diabetic population is associated with risks of the MI, stroke, and all-cause mortality, which is more rapid, more severe.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12933-018-0694-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.