Early mortality in adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC): a systematic review and meta-analysis

Concurrent Anemia and Elevated C-Reactive Protein Predicts HIV Clinical Treatment Failure, Including Tuberculosis, After Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation

BACKGROUND

Anemia is a known risk factor for clinical failure following antiretroviral therapy (ART). Notably, anemia and inflammation are interrelated, and recent studies have associated elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), an inflammation marker, with adverse human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment outcomes, yet their joint effect is not known. The objective of this study was to assess prevalence and risk factors of anemia in HIV infection and to determine whether anemia and elevated CRP jointly predict clinical failure post-ART.

METHODS

A case-cohort study (N = 470 [236 cases, 234 controls]) was nested within a multinational randomized trial of ART efficacy (Prospective Evaluation of Antiretrovirals in Resource Limited Settings [PEARLS]). Cases were incident World Health Organization stage 3, 4, or death by 96 weeks of ART treatment (clinical failure). Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for pre-ART (baseline) anemia (females: hemoglobin <12.0 g/dL; males: hemoglobin <13.0 g/dL). Association of anemia as well as concurrent baseline anemia and inflammation (CRP ≥ 10 mg/L) with clinical failure were assessed using multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

Baseline anemia prevalence was 51% with 15% prevalence of concurrent anemia and inflammation. In analysis of clinical failure, multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios were 6.41 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.82-14.57) for concurrent anemia and inflammation, 0.77 (95% CI, .37-1.58) for anemia without inflammation, and 0.45 (95% CI, .11-1.80) for inflammation without anemia compared to those without anemia and inflammation.

CONCLUSIONS

ART-naive, HIV-infected individuals with concurrent anemia and inflammation are at particularly high risk of failing treatment, and understanding the pathogenesis could lead to new interventions. Reducing inflammation and anemia will likely improve HIV disease outcomes. Alternatively, concurrent anemia and inflammation could represent individuals with occult opportunistic infections in need of additional screening.

Evaluation of a point-of-care tuberculosis test-and-treat algorithm on early mortality in people with HIV accessing antiretroviral therapy (TB Fast Track study): study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background

Early mortality for HIV-positive people starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains high in resource-limited settings, with tuberculosis the most important cause. Existing rapid diagnostic tests for tuberculosis lack sensitivity among HIV-positive people, and consequently, tuberculosis treatment is either delayed or started empirically (without bacteriological confirmation). We developed a management algorithm for ambulatory HIV-positive people, based on body mass index and point-of-care tests for haemoglobin and urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM), to identify those at high risk of tuberculosis and mortality. We designed a clinical trial to test whether implementation of this algorithm reduces six-month mortality among HIV-positive people with advanced immunosuppression.

Methods/design

The TB Fast Track study is an open, pragmatic, cluster randomised superiority trial, with 24 primary health clinics randomised to implement the intervention or standard of care. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with a CD4 count of 150 cells/μL or less, who have not received any tuberculosis treatment in the last three months, or ART in the last six months, are eligible. In intervention clinics, the study algorithm is used to classify individuals as at high, medium or low probability of tuberculosis. Those classified as high probability start tuberculosis treatment immediately, followed by ART after two weeks. Medium-probability patients follow the South African guidelines for test-negative tuberculosis and are reviewed within a week, to be re-categorised as low or high probability. Low-probability patients start ART as soon as possible. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality at six months. Secondary outcomes include severe morbidity, time to ART start and cost-effectiveness.

Discussion

This trial will test whether a primary care-friendly management algorithm will enable nurses to identify HIV-positive patients at the highest risk of tuberculosis, to facilitate prompt treatment and reduce early mortality. There remains an urgent need for better diagnostic tests for tuberculosis, especially for people with advanced HIV disease, which may render empirical treatment unnecessary.

Trial registration

This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials (identifier: ISRCTN35344604) on 12 September 2012.

Predictors of Mortality among Adult Antiretroviral Therapy Users in Southeastern Ethiopia: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background. Although efforts have been made to reduce AIDS-related mortality by providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) services, still people are dying while they are on treatment due to several factors. This study aimed to investigate the predictors of mortality among adult antiretroviral therapy (ART) users in Goba Hospital, Southeast Ethiopia. Methods. The medical records of 2036 ART users who enrolled at Goba Hospital between 2007 and 2012 were reviewed and sociodemographic, clinical, and ART-related data were collected. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to measure risk of death and identify the independent predictors of mortality. Results. The overall mortality incidence rate was 20.3 deaths per 1000 person-years. Male, bedridden, overweight/obese, and HIV clients infected with TB and other infectious diseases had higher odds of death compared with their respective counterparts. On the other hand, ART clients with primary and secondary educational level and early and less advanced WHO clinical stage had lower odds of death compared to their counterparts. Conclusion. The overall mortality incidence rate was high and majority of the death had occurred in the first year of ART initiation. Intensifying and strengthening early ART initiation, improving nutritional status, prevention and control of TB, and other opportunistic infections are recommended interventions.

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis in adults, including pregnant women, with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis is used to reduce morbidity and mortality in people with HIV. We systematically reviewed three topics related to co-trimoxazole prophylaxis to update WHO guidelines: initiation, discontinuation, and dose.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, WHO Global Index Medicus, and clinical trial registries in November, 2013, for randomised controlled trials and observational studies including co-trimoxazole prophylaxis and a comparator group. Studies were eligible if they reported death, WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 events, admittance to hospital, severe bacterial infections, tuberculosis, pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, or treatment-limiting adverse events. Infant mortality, low birthweight, and placental malaria were additional outcomes for the comparison of co-trimoxazole prophylaxis and intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnant women (IPTp). We compared a dose of 480 mg co-trimoxazole once a day with one of 960 mg co-trimoxazole once a day. We used a 10% margin for non-inferiority and equivalence analyses. We used random-effects models for all meta-analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42014007163.

FINDINGS

19 articles, published from 1995 to 2014 and including 35 328 participants, met the inclusion criteria. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis reduced rates of death (hazard ratio [HR] 0·40, 95% CI 0·26-0·64) when started at CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or lower with antiretroviral therapy (ART) worldwide. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis started at higher than 350 cells per μL without ART reduced rates of death (0·50, 0·30-0·83) and malaria (0·25, 0·10-0·57) in Africa. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis was non-inferior to IPTp with respect to infant mortality (risk difference [RD] -0·05, 95% CI -0·12 to 0·02), low birthweight (0·00, -0·07 to 0·07), and placental malaria (0·00, -0·10 to 0·10). Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis continuation after ART-induced recovery with CD4 counts higher than 350 cells per μL reduced admittances to hospital (HR 0·42, 95% CI 0·22-0·80), pneumonia (0·73, 0·61-0·88), malaria (0·03, 0·01-0·10), and diarrhoea (0·61, 0·48-0·78) in Africa. A dose of 480 mg co-trimoxazole prophylaxis once a day did not reduce treatment-limiting adverse events compared with 960 mg once a day (RD -0·07, 95% CI -0·52 to 0·39).

INTERPRETATION

Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis should be given with ART in people with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or lower in low-income and middle-income countries. Co-trimoxazole prophylaxis should be provided irrespective of CD4 count in settings with a high burden of infectious diseases. Pregnant women with HIV in Africa should use co-trimoxazole rather than IPTp to prevent malaria complications in infants. Further research is needed to inform dose optimisation and co-trimoxazole use in the context of expanded ART in different epidemiological settings.

FUNDING

None.

C-reactive protein (CRP), interferon gamma-inducible protein 10 (IP-10), and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) are associated with risk of tuberculosis after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings

Objective

The association between pre-antiretroviral (ART) inflammation and immune activation and risk for incident tuberculosis (TB) after ART initiation among adults is uncertain.

Design

Nested case-control study (n = 332) within ACTG PEARLS trial of three ART regimens among 1571 HIV-infected, treatment-naïve adults in 9 countries. We compared cases (participants with incident TB diagnosed by 96 weeks) to a random sample of controls (participants who did not develop TB, stratified by country and treatment arm).

Methods

We measured pre-ART C-reactive protein (CRP), EndoCab IgM, ferritin, interferon gamma (IFN-γ), interleukin 6 (IL-6), interferon gamma-inducible protein 10 (IP-10), lipopolysaccharide (LPS), soluble CD14 (sCD14), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), and CD4/DR+/38+ and CD8/DR+/38+ T cells. Markers were defined according to established cutoff definitions when available, 75th percentile of measured values when not, and detectable versus undetectable for LPS. Using logistic regression, we measured associations between biomarkers and incident TB, adjusting for age, sex, study site, treatment arm, baseline CD4 and log10 viral load. We assessed the discriminatory value of biomarkers using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results

Seventy-seven persons (4.9%) developed incident TB during follow-up. Elevated baseline CRP (aOR 3.25, 95% CI: 1.55–6.81) and IP-10 (aOR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.05–3.39), detectable plasma LPS (aOR 2.39, 95% CI: 1.13–5.06), and the established TB risk factors anemia and hypoalbuminemia were independently associated with incident TB. In ROC analysis, CRP, albumin, and LPS improved discrimination only modestly for TB risk when added to baseline routine patient characteristics including CD4 count, body mass index, and prior TB.

Conclusion

Incident TB occurs commonly after ART initiation. Although associated with higher post-ART TB risk, baseline CRP, IP-10, and LPS add limited value to routine patient characteristics in discriminating who develops active TB. Besides determining ideal cutoffs for these biomarkers, additional biomarkers should be sought that predict TB disease in ART initiators.

Risk of death among those awaiting treatment for HIV infection in Zimbabwe: adolescents are at particular risk

INTRODUCTION

Mortality among HIV-positive adults awaiting antiretroviral therapy (ART) has previously been found to be high. Here, we compare adolescent pre-ART mortality to that of adults in a public sector HIV care programme in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we compared adolescent pre-ART outcomes with those of adults enrolled for HIV care in the same clinic. Adolescents were defined as those aged 10-19 at the time of registration. Comparisons of means and proportions were carried out using two-tailed sample t-tests and chi-square tests respectively, for normally distributed data, and the Mann-Whitney U-tests for non-normally distributed data. Loss to follow-up (LTFU) was defined as missing a scheduled appointment by three or more months.

RESULTS

Between 2004 and 2010, 1382 of 1628 adolescents and 7557 of 11,106 adults who registered for HIV care met the eligibility criteria for ART. Adolescents registered at a more advanced disease stage than did adults (83% vs. 73% WHO stage III/IV, respectively, p<0.001), and the median time to ART initiation was longer for adolescents than for adults [21 (10-55) days vs. 15 (7-42) days, p<0.001]. Among the 138 adolescents and 942 adults who never commenced ART, 39 (28%) of adolescents and 135 (14%) of adults died, the remainder being LTFU. Mortality among treatment-eligible adolescents awaiting ART was significantly higher than among adults (3% vs. 1.8%, respectively, p=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

Adolescents present to ART services at a later clinical stage than adults and are at an increased risk of death prior to commencing ART. Improved and innovative HIV case-finding approaches and emphasis on prompt ART initiation in adolescents are urgently needed. Following registration, defaulter tracing should be used, whether or not ART has been commenced.

Evaluation of screening and treatment of cryptococcal antigenaemia among HIV-infected persons in Soweto, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We retrospectively evaluated clinic-based screening to determine the prevalence of cryptococcal antigenaemia and management and outcome of patients with antigenaemia.

METHODS

Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening of HIV-infected adults who attended the HIV clinic at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital was conducted over 19 months. Data collected from CrAg-positive patients included CD4 T-lymphocyte count at screening, prior or subsequent cryptococcal meningitis (CM), antifungal and antiretroviral treatment and outcome after at least 8 months.

RESULTS

Of 1460 patients with no prior CM, 30 (2.1%) had a positive CrAg test. The prevalence of antigenaemia among patients with a CD4 count < 100 cells/μl and no prior CM was 2.8% (20 of 708). Of 29 evaluable CrAg-positive patients with no prior CM, 14 (48%) did not return for post-screening follow-up. Of these 14, five developed CM and one (7%) was known to be alive at follow-up. Of 15 patients who returned for follow-up, two already had evidence of nonmeningeal cryptococcosis. Overall, 11 received fluconazole, one did not and fluconazole treatment was unknown for three. Among these 15, one developed CM and 10 (67%) were known to be alive at follow-up. Overall, 18 (62%) of 29 CrAg-positive patients died or were lost to follow-up. Seven (0.5%) of 1430 CrAg-negative patients developed CM a median of 83 days post-screening (range 34 to 219 days).

CONCLUSIONS

Loss to follow-up is the major operational issue relevant to scale-up of screen-and-treat. Patient outcomes may be improved by rapid access to CrAg results and focus on linkage to and retention in HIV care.

Self-transfer and mortality amongst adults lost to follow-up in ART programmes in low- and middle-income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain estimates of adult patients, recorded as lost to follow-up (LTFU) within antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes, who have self-transferred care, died or truly stopped ART in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Science Direct, LILACS, IndMed and AIM databases (2003-2013) and IAS/AIDS conference abstracts (2011-2013) were searched for tracing studies reporting the proportion of traced patients found to have self-transferred, died or stopped ART. These estimates were then combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Risk of bias was assessed through subgroup and sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Twenty eight studies were eligible for inclusion, reporting true outcomes for 10,806 traced patients attending approximately 258 ART facilities. None were from outside sub-Saharan Africa. Twenty three studies reported 4.5-54.4% traced LTFU patients self-transferring care, providing a pooled estimate of 18.6% (95% CI 15.8-22.0%). A significant positive association was found between rates of self-transfer and LTFU in the ART cohort. The pooled estimates for unreported deaths were 38.8% (95% CI 30.8-46.8%; 27 studies) and 28.6% (95% CI 21.9-36.0%; 20 studies) for patients stopping ART. A significant decrease in unreported deaths from 50.0% (95% CI 41.5-58.4%) to 30.0% (95% CI 21.1-38.9%) was found comparing study periods before and after 31 December 2007.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial unaccounted for transfers and deaths amongst patients LTFU confirms that retention and mortality is underestimated where the true outcomes of LTFU patients are not ascertained.

Increased systemic inflammation is associated with cardiac and vascular dysfunction over the first 12 weeks of antiretroviral therapy among undernourished, HIV-infected adults in Southern Africa

INTRODUCTION

Persistent systemic inflammation is associated with mortality among undernourished, HIV-infected adults starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, but the etiology of these deaths is not well understood. We hypothesized that greater systemic inflammation is accompanied by cardiovascular dysfunction over the first 12 weeks of ART.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort of 33 undernourished (body mass index <18.5 kg/m²) Zambian adults starting ART, we measured C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor-α receptor 1 (TNF-α R1), and soluble CD163 and CD14 at baseline and 12 weeks. An EndoPAT device measured the reactive hyperemia index (LnRHI; a measure of endothelial responsiveness), peripheral augmentation index (AI; a measure of arterial stiffness), and heart rate variability (HRV; a general marker of autonomic tone and cardiovascular health) at the same time points. We assessed paired changes in inflammation and cardiovascular parameters, and relationships independent of time point (adjusted for age, sex, and CD4+ T-cell count) using linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Serum CRP decreased (median change -3.5 mg/l, p=0.02), as did TNF-α R1 (-0.31 ng/ml, p<0.01), over the first 12 weeks of ART. A reduction in TNF-α R1 over 12 weeks was associated with an increase in LnRHI (p=0.03), and a similar inverse relationship was observed for CRP and LnRHI (p=0.07). AI increased in the cohort as a whole over 12 weeks, and a reduction in sCD163 was associated with a rise in the AI score (p=0.04). In the pooled analysis of baseline and 12 week data, high CRP was associated with lower HRV parameters (RMSSD, p=0.01; triangular index, p<0.01), and higher TNF- α R1 accompanied lower HRV (RMSSD, p=0.07; triangular index, p=0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

Persistent inflammation was associated with impaired cardiovascular health over the first 12 weeks of HIV treatment among undernourished adults in Africa, suggesting cardiac events may contribute to high mortality in this population.

Timing, rates, and causes of death in a large South African tuberculosis programme

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality remains high across sub-Saharan Africa despite integration of TB and HIV/ART programmes. To inform programme design and service delivery, we estimated mortality by time from starting TB treatment.

METHODS

Routinely collected data on TB treatment, vital status, and the timing and causes of death, were linked to cardio-respiratory autopsy data, from 1995-2008, from a cohort of male platinum miners in South Africa. Records were expanded into person-months at risk (pm).

RESULTS

4162 TB episodes were registered; 3170 men were treated for the first time and 833 men underwent retreatment. Overall, 509 men died, with a case fatality of 12.2% and mortality rate of 2.0/100 pm. Mortality was highest in the first month after starting TB treatment for first (2.3/100 pm) and retreatment episodes (4.8/100 pm). When stratified by HIV status, case fatality was higher in HIV positive men not on ART (first episode 14.0%; retreatment episode 26.2%) and those on ART (12.0%; 22.0%) than men of negative or unknown HIV status (2.6%; 3.6%). Mortality was also highest in the first month for each of these groups. Mortality risk factors included older age, previous TB, HIV, pulmonary TB, and diagnostic uncertainty. The proportion of deaths attributable to TB was consistently overestimated in clinical records versus cardio-respiratory autopsy.

CONCLUSIONS

Programme mortality was highest in those with HIV and during the first month of TB treatment in all groups, and many deaths were not caused by TB. Resource allocation should prioritise TB prevention and accurate earlier diagnosis, recognise the role of HIV, and ensure effective clinical care in the early stages of TB treatment.

Incidence and predictors of regimen-modification from first-line antiretroviral therapy in Thailand: a cohort study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy markedly reduced mortality in HIV-infected individuals. However, in the previous studies, up to 50% of patients are compelled to modify their regimen in middle and low-income countries where salvage drug is still limited. This cohort study aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of regimen modification from the first-line antiretroviral regimen in northern Thailand.

Methods

All HIV-infected patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) with generic drug (GPOvir®; stavudine, lamivudine and nevirapine) at a governmental hospital in northern Thailand from 2002 to 2007 were recruited. Baseline characteristics and detailed information of regimen modification until the end of 2010 were ascertained from cohort database and medical charts. As a potential genetic predictor of regimen modification, HLA B allele was determined by bead-based array hybridization (WAKFlow® HLA typing kit). We investigated predictors of the regimen modification using Cox’s proportional hazard models.

Results

Of 979 patients, 914 were eligible for the analysis. The observed events of regimen modification was 377, corresponding to an incidence 13.8/100 person-year-observation (95% CI:12.5-15.3) over 2,728 person years (PY) follow up. The main reasons for regimen modification were adverse effects (73.5%), especially lipodystrophy (63.2%) followed by rash (17.7%). Sixty three patients (17.1%) changed the regimen due to treatment failure. 2% and 19% of patients had HLA-B*35:05 and B*4001, respectively. HLA-B*35:05 was independently associated with rash-related regimen modification (aHR 7.73, 95% CI:3.16-18.9) while female gender was associated with lipodystrophy (aHR 2.11, 95% CI:1.51-2.95). Female gender (aHR 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30-0.96), elder age (aHR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.99) and having HLA-B*40:01 (aHR 0.29, 95% CI: 0.10-0.82) were protective for treatment failure related modification.

Conclusion

HLA-B*35:05 and female gender were strong predictors of regimen modification due to rash and lipodystrophy, respectively. Female gender, elder age, and having HLA-B*40:01 had protective effects on treatment failure-related regimen modification. This study provides further information of regimen modification for future tailored ART in Asia.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0565-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A 12 week longitudinal study of microbial translocation and systemic inflammation in undernourished HIV-infected Zambians initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background

Undernourished, HIV-infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa have high levels of systemic inflammation, which is a risk factor for mortality and other adverse health outcomes. We hypothesized that microbial translocation, due to the deleterious effects of HIV and poor nutrition on intestinal defenses and mucosal integrity, contributes to heightened systemic inflammation in this population, and reductions in inflammation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) accompany reductions in translocation.

Methods

HIV-infected, Zambian adults with a body mass index <18.5 kg/m² were recruited for a pilot study to assess the relationships between microbial translocation and systemic inflammation over the first 12 weeks of ART. To assess microbial translocation we measured serum lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP), endotoxin core IgG and IgM, and soluble CD14, and to assess intestinal permeability we measured the urinary excretion of an oral lactulose dose normalized to urinary creatinine (Lac/Cr ratio). Linear mixed models were used to assess within-patient changes in these markers relative to serum C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor-α receptor 1 (TNF-α R1), and soluble CD163 over 12 weeks, in addition to relationships between variables independent of time point and adjusted for age, sex, and CD4+ count.

Results

Thirty-three participants had data from recruitment and at 12 weeks: 55% were male, median age was 36 years, and median baseline CD4+ count was 224 cells/μl. Over the first 12 weeks of ART, there were significant decreases in serum levels of LBP (median change -8.7 μg/ml, p = 0.01), TNF-α receptor 1 (-0.31 ng/ml, p < 0.01), and CRP (-3.5 mg/l, p = 0.02). The change in soluble CD14 level over 12 weeks was positively associated with the change in CRP (p < 0.01) and soluble CD163 (p < 0.01). Pooling data at baseline and 12 weeks, serum LBP was positively associated with CRP (p = 0.01), while endotoxin core IgM was inversely associated with CRP (p = 0.01) and TNF-α receptor 1 (p = 0.04). The Lac/Cr ratio was not associated with any serum biomarkers.

Conclusions

In undernourished HIV-infected adults in Zambia, biomarkers of increased microbial translocation are associated with high levels of systemic inflammation before and after initiation of ART, suggesting that impaired gut immune defenses contribute to innate immune activation in this population.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-521) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Symptomatic HIV-positive persons in rural Mozambique who first consult a traditional healer have delays in HIV testing: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

Delays in HIV diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy are common even among symptomatic individuals in Africa. We hypothesized that antiretroviral therapy delays might be more common if traditional healers (THs) were the first practitioners consulted.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

We interviewed 530 newly diagnosed HIV-infected adults (≥18 years of age) who were clinically symptomatic at the time of HIV testing in 2 rural districts in Zambézia Province, Mozambique. We ascertained their previous health care seeking behavior, duration of their symptoms, CD4 cell counts at the time of entry into care, and treatment provided by TH(s).

RESULTS

Of 517 patients (97.5%) with complete histories, 62% sought care from a healer before presenting to the local health facility. The median time to first health facility visit from first relevant symptom was 2 months [interquartile range (IQR): 1-4.5] for persons who had not visited a healer, 3 months (IQR: 2-6) for persons visiting 1 healer, and 9 months (IQR: 5-12) for persons visiting >1 healer (P < 0.001). Healers diagnosed 56% of patients with a social or ancestral curse and treated 66% with subcutaneous herbal remedies. A nonsignificant trend toward lower CD4 cells for persons who had seen multiple healers was noted.

CONCLUSIONS

Seeking initial care from healers was associated with delays in HIV testing among symptomatic HIV-seropositive persons. We had no CD4 evidence that sicker patients bypass THs, a potential inferential bias. Engaging THs in a therapeutic alliance may facilitate the earlier diagnosis of HIV/AIDS.

Scaling up intensified tuberculosis case finding in HIV clinics in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Early TB detection and treatment is key to saving lives of PLHIV. Rwanda began implementing intensified TB case finding (ICF) in 2005 in line with World Health Organization policy on TB/HIV collaborative activities. We aimed to describe trends of ICF in PLHIV newly enrolled into HIV clinics.

METHODS

We used routinely collected program data on ICF from facility-based pre-antiretroviral therapy/antiretroviral therapy registers in Rwandan HIV clinics from 2006 to 2011. Semiannual, active data collection for PLHIV newly enrolled into HIV care included proportion screened for TB, proportion screened positive, and percentage with active TB and started anti-TB drugs.

RESULTS

The number of health facilities reporting TB screening indicators increased 16-fold, from 20 facilities in the first semester of 2006 to 328 facilities by the end of 2011. The proportion of patients screened increased progressively from 77% of newly enrolled patients in first semester of 2006 to 94% at the end of 2011 (P < 0.001). The proportion of patients who screened positive decreased over time, from 23% in the first semester of 2006 to 10% at the end of 2011 (P < 0.001). The proportion of active TB cases remained relatively constant over time at 2.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Rwanda has increased the proportion of newly enrolled PLHIV screened for TB using a simple screening protocol. Countries with limited resources but high HIV and TB disease prevalence should implement ICF as part of their integrated HIV-TB treatment programs.

Impact of geographic and transportation-related barriers on HIV outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Difficulty obtaining reliable transportation to clinic is frequently cited as a barrier to HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Numerous studies have sought to characterize the impact of geographic and transportation-related barriers on HIV outcomes in SSA, but to date there has been no systematic attempt to summarize these findings. In this systematic review, we summarized this body of literature. We searched for studies conducted in SSA examining the following outcomes in the HIV care continuum: (1) voluntary counseling and testing, (2) pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) linkage to care, (3) loss to follow-up and mortality, and (4) ART adherence and/or viral suppression. We identified 34 studies containing 52 unique estimates of association between a geographic or transportation-related barrier and an HIV outcome. There was an inverse effect in 23 estimates (44 %), a null association in 26 (50 %), and a paradoxical beneficial impact in 3 (6 %). We conclude that geographic and transportation-related barriers are associated with poor outcomes across the continuum of HIV care.

Impact of antiretroviral therapy on opportunistic infections of HIV-infected children in the therapeutic research, education and AIDS training asia pediatric HIV observational database

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on opportunistic infections (OIs) and factors associated with their occurrence after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Asian children. The use of HAART in Asia started much later than in developed countries and therefore reported findings may not be fully applicable to the pediatric HIV epidemic in Asia.

METHODS

Retrospective and prospectively collected data from the Therapeutic Research, Education and AIDS Training Asia Pediatric HIV Observational Database cohort study from March 1993 to March 2009 were analyzed. OIs were defined according to World Health Organization clinical staging criteria and incidence rates calculated. Factors associated with the incidence of severe OIs were analyzed using random effects Poisson regression modeling.

RESULTS

Of 2280 children in the cohort, 1752 were ever reported to have received antiretroviral therapy, of whom 1480 (84%) started on HAART. Before commencing any antiretroviral therapy, OIs occurred at a rate of 89.5 per 100 person-years. The incidence rate was 28.8 infections per 100 person-years during mono- or dual-therapy and 10.5 infections per 100 person-years during HAART. The most common OIs both before and after antiretroviral therapy initiation were recurrent upper respiratory tract infections, persistent oral candidiasis and pulmonary tuberculosis. The incidence rates of World Health Organization clinical stage 3 or 4 OIs after HAART were highest among children <18 months of age and those with low weight-for-age z scores, CD4 cell % <15%, and World Health Organization stage 3 at HAART initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite dramatic declines in their incidence, OIs remained important causes of morbidity after HAART initiation in this regional cohort of HIV-infected children in Asia.

High rates of virological suppression in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-positive adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in ethiopian health centers irrespective of concomitant tuberculosis

Rates of virological suppression after 6 months of ART were high in a cohort of 678 HIV-positive adults managed in Ethiopian health centers, with no significant difference with regard to concomitant tuberculosis at baseline (TB 135; non-TB 543).

Background.

 Antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during treatment for tuberculosis (TB) improves survival in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/TB-coinfected patients. We compared virological suppression (VS) rates, mortality, and retention in care in HIV-positive adults receiving care in 5 Ethiopian health centers with regard to TB coinfection.

Methods.

 Human immunodeficiency virus-positive ART-naive adults eligible for ART initiation were prospectively recruited. At inclusion, all patients underwent microbiological investigations for TB (sputum smear, liquid culture, and polymerase chain reaction). Virological suppression rates after 6 months of ART (VS; viral load <40 and <400 copies/mL) with regard to TB status was the primary outcome. The impact of HIV/TB coinfection on VS rates was determined by multivariate regression analysis. Mortality and retention in care were analyzed by proportional hazard models.

Results.

 Among 812 participants (TB, 158; non-TB, 654), 678 started ART during the follow-up period (TB, 135; non-TB, 543). No difference in retention in care between TB and non-TB patients was observed during follow-up; 25 (3.7%) patients died, and 17 (2.5%) were lost to follow-up (P = .30 and P = .83, respectively). Overall rates of VS at 6 months were 72.1% (<40 copies/mL) and 88.7% (<400 copies/mL), with similar results for subjects with and without TB coinfection (<40 copies/mL: 65 of 92 [70.7%] vs 304 of 420 [72.4%], P = .74; <400 copies/mL: 77 of 92 [83.7%] vs 377 of 420 [89.8%], P = .10, respectively).

Conclusions.

 High rates of VS can be achieved in adults receiving ART at health centers, with no significant difference with regard to TB coinfection. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of combined ART and anti-TB treatment in primary healthcare in low-income countries.

Clinical Trials Registration.

 NCT01433796.

Treatment outcomes in a decentralized antiretroviral therapy program: a comparison of two levels of care in north central Nigeria

Background. Decentralization of antiretroviral therapy (ART) services is a key strategy to achieving universal access to treatment for people living with HIV/AIDS. Our objective was to assess clinical and laboratory outcomes within a decentralized program in Nigeria. Methods. Using a tiered hub-and-spoke model to decentralize services, a tertiary hospital scaled down services to 13 secondary-level hospitals using national and program guidelines. We obtained sociodemographic, clinical, and immunovirologic data on previously antiretroviral drug naïve patients aged ≥15 years that received HAART for at least 6 months and compared treatment outcomes between the prime and satellite sites. Results. Out of 7,747 patients, 3729 (48.1%) were enrolled at the satellites while on HAART, prime site patients achieved better immune reconstitution based on CD4+ cell counts at 12 (P < 0.001) and 24 weeks (P < 0.001) with similar responses at 48 weeks (P = 0.11) and higher rates of viral suppression (<400 c/mL) at 12 (P < 0.001) and 48 weeks (P = 0.03), but similar responses at 24 weeks (P = 0.21). Mortality was 2.3% versus 5.0% (P < 0.001) at prime and satellite sites, while transfer rate was 8.7% versus 5.5% (P = 0.001) at prime and satellites. Conclusion. ART decentralization is feasible in resource-limited settings, but efforts have to be intensified to maintain good quality of care.

Blood pressure level impacts risk of death among HIV seropositive adults in Kenya: a retrospective analysis of electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Mortality among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is increasingly due to non-communicable causes. This has been observed mostly in developed countries and the routine care of HIV infected individuals has now expanded to include attention to cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure are often overlooked among HIV seropositive (+) individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the effect of blood pressure on mortality among HIV+ adults in Kenya.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records of a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya between 2005 and 2010. All included individuals were HIV+. We excluded participants with AIDS, who were <16 or >80 years old, or had data out of acceptable ranges. Missing data for key covariates was addressed by inverse probability weighting. Primary outcome measures were crude mortality rate and mortality hazard ratio (HR) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounders including HIV stage.

RESULTS

There were 49,475 (74% women) HIV+ individuals who met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Mortality rates for men and women were 3.8 and 1.8/100 person-years, respectively, and highest among those with the lowest blood pressures. Low blood pressure was associated with the highest mortality incidence rate (IR) (systolic <100 mmHg IR 5.2 [4.8-5.7]; diastolic <60 mmHg IR 9.2 [8.3-10.2]). Mortality rate among men with high systolic blood pressure without advanced HIV (3.0, 95% CI: 1.6-5.5) was higher than men with normal systolic blood pressure (1.1, 95% CI: 0.7-1.7). In weighted proportional hazards regression models, men without advanced HIV disease and systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg carried a higher mortality risk than normotensive men (HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 0.94-6.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Although there has been little attention paid to high blood pressure among HIV+ Africans, we show that blood pressure level among HIV+ patients in Kenya is related to mortality. Low blood pressure carries the highest mortality risk. High systolic blood pressure is associated with mortality among patients whose disease is not advanced. Further investigation is needed into the cause of death for such patients.

Effects of nutritional supplementation for HIV patients starting antiretroviral treatment: randomised controlled trial in Ethiopia

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effects of lipid based nutritional supplements with either whey or soy protein in patients with HIV during the first three months of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and to explore effects of timing by comparing supplementation at the start of ART and after three months delay.

DESIGN

Randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Three public ART facilities in Jimma, Oromia region, Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with HIV eligible for ART with body mass index (BMI) >16.

INTERVENTION

Daily supplementation with 200 g (4600 kJ) of supplement containing whey or soy during either the first three or the subsequent three months of ART.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: lean body mass assessed with deuterium dilution, grip strength measured with dynamometers, and physical activity measured with accelerometer and heart rate monitors. Secondary: viral load and CD4 counts. Auxiliary: weight and CD3 and CD8 counts.

RESULTS

Of 318 patients enrolled, 210 (66%) were women, mean age was 33 (SD 9), and mean BMI was 19.5 (SD 2.4). At three months, participants receiving the supplements containing whey or soy had increased their lean body mass by 0.85 kg (95% confidence interval 0.16 kg to 1.53 kg) and 0.97 kg (0.29 kg to 1.64 kg), respectively, more than controls. This was accompanied by an increased gain of grip strength of 0.68 kg (-0.11 kg to 1.46 kg) for the whey supplement group and 0.93 kg (0.16 kg to 1.70 kg) for the soy supplement group. There were no effects on physical activity. Total weight gain increased by 2.05 kg (1.12 kg to 2.99 kg) and 2.06 kg (1.14 kg to 2.97 kg) for the whey and soy groups, respectively. In addition, in the whey supplement group overall CD3 counts improved by 150 cells/µL (24 to 275 cells/µL), of which 112 cells/µL (15 to 209 cells/µL) were CD8 and 25 cells/µL (-2 to 53 cells/µL) were CD4. Effects of the soy containing supplement on immune recovery were not significant. The effects of the two supplements, however, were not significantly different in direct comparison. Exploratory analysis showed that relatively more lean body mass was gained by patients with undetectable viral load at three months. Patients receiving delayed supplementation had higher weight gain but lower gains in functional outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Lipid based nutritional supplements improved gain of weight, lean body mass, and grip strength in patients with HIV starting ART. Supplements containing whey were associated with improved immune recovery. Trial registration Controlled-trials.com ISRCTN32453477.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of nutrition supplementation for malnourished, HIV-infected adults starting antiretroviral therapy in a resource-constrained setting

Background

Low body mass index (BMI) individuals starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa have high rates of death and loss to follow-up in the first 6 months of treatment. Nutritional supplementation may improve health outcomes in this population, but the anticipated benefit of any intervention should be commensurate with the cost given resource limitations and the need to expand access to ART in the region.

Methods

We used Markov models incorporating historical data and program-wide estimates of treatment costs and health benefits from the Zambian national ART program to estimate the improvements in 6-month survival and program retention among malnourished adults necessary for a combined nutrition support and ART treatment program to maintain cost-effectiveness parity with ART treatment alone. Patients were stratified according to World Health Organization criteria for severe (BMI <16.0 kg/m²), moderate (16.00-16.99 kg/m²), and mild (17.00-18.49 kg/m²) malnutrition categories.

Results

19,247 patients contributed data between May 2004 and October 2010. Quarterly survival and retention were lowest in the BMI <16.0 kg/m² category compared to higher BMI levels, and there was less variation in both measures across BMI strata after 180 days. ART treatment was estimated to cost $556 per year and averted 7.3 disability-adjusted life years. To maintain cost-effectiveness parity with ART alone, a supplement needed to cost $10.99 per quarter and confer a 20% reduction in both 6-month mortality and loss to follow-up among BMI <16.0 kg/m² patients. Among BMI 17.00-18.49 kg/m² patients, supplement costs accompanying a 20% reduction in mortality and loss to follow-up could not exceed $5.18 per quarter. In sensitivity analyses, the maximum permitted supplement cost increased if the ART program cost rose, and fell if patients classified as lost to follow-up at 6 months subsequently returned to care.

Conclusions

Low BMI adults starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa are at high risk of early mortality and loss to follow-up. The expense of providing nutrition supplementation would require only modest improvements in survival and program retention to be cost-effective for the most severely malnourished individuals starting ART, but interventions are unlikely to be cost-effective among those in higher BMI strata.

Neurology and the Global HIV Epidemic

The vast majority of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection reside in resource-limited settings. As compared with resource-rich settings, there are important differences in the epidemiology and outcomes of HIV infection in resource-limited settings. Nonetheless, little HIV neurology research occurs in these regions. We will first review clinical, epidemiological, and translational HIV neurology research originating from resource-limited settings. We will then discuss the barriers to conducting neurologic research, such as limited human resources, diagnostics, and access to medications. Finally, we will review existing initiatives to build capacity for research in resource-limited settings. Despite the barriers, there is growing interest in and opportunities for collaborative international neurologic research. Including diverse viral and human populations from across the globe in research opens possibilities for important implementation science, clinically oriented science, and basic science discoveries.

Home-based versus clinic-based care for patients starting antiretroviral therapy with low CD4⁺ cell counts: findings from a cluster-randomized trial

Objectives:

African health services have shortages of clinical staff. We showed previously, in a cluster-randomized trial, that a home-based strategy using trained lay-workers is as effective as a clinic-based strategy. It is not known whether home-based care is suitable for patients with advanced HIV disease.

Methods:

The trial was conducted in Jinja, Uganda. One thousand, four hundred and fifty-three adults initiating ART between February 2005 and January 2009 were randomized to receive either home-based care or routine clinic-based care, and followed up for about 3 years. Trained lay workers, supervised by clinical staff based in a clinic, delivered the home-based care. In this sub-analysis, we compared survival between the two strategies for those who presented with CD4⁺ cell count less than 50 cells/μl and those who presented with higher CD4⁺ cell counts. We used Kaplan–Meier methods and Poisson regression.

Results:

Four hundred and forty four of 1453 (31%) participants had baseline CD4⁺ cell count less than 50 cells/μl. Overall, 110 (25%) deaths occurred among participants with baseline CD4⁺ cell count less than 50 cells/μl and 87 (9%) in those with higher CD4⁺ cell count. Among participants with CD4⁺ cell count less than 50 cells/μl, mortality rates were similar for the home and facility-based arms; adjusted mortality rate ratio 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53–1.18] compared with 1.22 (95% CI 0.78–1.89) for those who presented with higher CD4⁺ cell count.

Conclusion:

HIV home-based care, with lay workers playing a major role in the delivery of care including providing monthly adherence support, leads to similar survival rates as clinic-based care even among patients who present with very low CD4⁺ cell count. This emphasises the critical role of adherence to antiretroviral therapy.

Four-year retention and risk factors for attrition among members of community ART groups in Tete, Mozambique

OBJECTIVE

Community ART groups (CAG), peer support groups involved in community ART distribution and mutual psychosocial support, were piloted to respond to staggering antiretroviral treatment (ART) attrition in Mozambique. To understand the impact of CAG on long-term retention, we estimated mortality and lost-to-follow-up (LTFU) rates and assessed predictors for attrition.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study. Kaplan-Meier techniques were used to estimate mortality and LTFU in CAG. Individual- and CAG-level predictors of attrition were assessed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for site-level clustering.

RESULTS

Mortality and LTFU rates among 5729 CAG members were, respectively, 2.1 and 0.1 per 100 person-years. Retention was 97.7% at 12 months, 96.0% at 24 months, 93.4% at 36 months and 91.8% at 48 months. At individual level, attrition in CAG was significantly associated with immunosuppression when joining a CAG, and being male. At CAG level, attrition was associated with lack of rotational representation at the clinic, lack of a regular CD4 count among fellow members and linkage to a rural or district clinic compared with linkage to a peri-urban clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term retention in this community-based ART model compares favourably with published data on stable ART patients. Nevertheless, to reduce attrition, further efforts need to be made to enroll patients earlier on ART, promote health-seeking behaviour, especially for men, promote a strong peer dynamic to assure rotational representation at the clinic and regular CD4 follow-up and reinforce referral of sick patients.

Intensified tuberculosis case-finding in HIV-positive adults managed at Ethiopian health centers: diagnostic yield of Xpert MTB/RIF compared with smear microscopy and liquid culture

Background

Detection of active tuberculosis (TB) before antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is important, but optimal diagnostic methods for use in resource-limited settings are lacking. We assessed the prevalence of TB, evaluated the diagnostic yield of Xpert MTB/RIF in comparison with smear microscopy and culture, and the impact of Xpert results on clinical management in HIV-positive adults eligible for ART at health centers in a region of Ethiopia.

Methods

Participants were prospectively recruited and followed up at 5 health centers. Trained nurses collected data on socio-demographic characteristics, medical history and symptoms, and performed physical examination. Two paired morning sputum samples were obtained, and lymph node aspirates in case of lymphadenopathy. Diagnostic yield of Xpert MTB/RIF in sputum was compared with smear microscopy and liquid culture.

Results

TB was diagnosed in 145/812 participants (17.9%), with bacteriological confirmation in 137 (16.9%). Among bacteriologically confirmed cases, 31 were smear-positive (22.6%), 96 were Xpert-positive (70.1%), and 123 were culture-positive (89.8%). Xpert MTB/RIF increased the TB detection rate by 64 cases (47.4%) compared with smear microscopy. The overall sensitivity of Xpert MTB/RIF was 66.4%, and was not significantly lower when testing one compared with two samples. While Xpert MTB/RIF was 46.7% sensitive among patients with CD4 cell counts >200 cells/mm³, this increased to 82.9% in those with CD4 cell counts ≤100 cells/mm³. Compared with Xpert-positive TB patients, Xpert-negative cases had less advanced HIV and TB disease characteristics.

Conclusions

Previously undiagnosed TB is common among HIV-positive individuals managed in Ethiopian health centers. Xpert MTB/RIF increased TB case detection, especially in patients with advanced immunosuppression. An algorithm based on the use of a single morning sputum sample for individuals with negative sputum smear microscopy could be considered for intensified case finding in patients eligible for ART. However, technical and cost-effectiveness issues relevant for low-income countries warrant further study.

Methadone maintenance treatment and mortality in HIV-positive people who inject opioids in China

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) on mortality in people injecting opioids who receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in China.

METHODS

The study involved a nationwide cohort of 23 813 HIV-positive (HIV+) people injecting opioids who received ART between 31 December 2002 and 31 December 2011. Mortality rates and demographic, disease and treatment characteristics were compared in patients who received either ART and MMT or ART only. Factors associated with mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis.

FINDINGS

Overall, 3057 deaths occurred during 41 959 person-years of follow-up (mortality: 7.3 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval, CI: 7.0-7.5). Mortality 6 months after starting ART was significantly lower with ART and MMT than with ART only (6.6 versus 16.9 per 100 person-years, respectively; P < 0.001). After 12 months, mortality was 3.7 and 7.4 per 100 person-years in the two groups, respectively (P < 0.001). Not having received MMT was an independent predictor of death (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.3-1.6). Other predictors were a low haemoglobin level and a low CD4+ T-lymphocyte count at ART initiation and treatment at facilities other than infectious disease hospitals.

CONCLUSION

Patients would benefit more from both MMT and HIV treatment programmes and would face fewer barriers to care if cross-referrals between programmes were promoted and ART and MMT services were located together.

The Association between Yang-Deficient Constitution and Clinical Outcome of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy on People Living with HIV

Objective. To determine the association between Yang-Deficient Constitution and the clinical outcomes of HIV/AIDS patients who have initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Method. A total of 197 antiretroviral-naive adults who initiated HAART between 2009 and 2011 were recruited. The participants were asked to complete a questionnaire twice to assess their Yang-Deficient Constitution status before HAART. During the study, signs and symptoms and CD4 or CD8 T cell counts were recorded. Routine blood and biochemical tests were conducted. For the patients who were found to have infections, pathologic examination was performed. Statistical test of association of clinical attributes and demographic factors with Yang-Deficient Constitution was conducted. Result. Good test-retest reliability was observed for Yang-Deficient Constitution scoring. The median Yang-Deficient Constitution score of 142 eligible participants was 25. Female (score = 32.14, P < 0.05), hepatotoxicity (32.14, P < 0.1), nephrotoxicity (37.50, P < 0.1), total number of adverse events (P < 0.1), and mortality (39.29, P < 0.05) were associated with Yang-Deficient Consitution, while annual changes or nadir values of CD4 or CD8 T lymphocytes, and newly acquired infections after starting HAART were not. Mortality was also associated with total number of adverse events (P < 0.05), hepatotoxicity (P < 0.05), and nephrotoxicity (P < 0.05). Conclusion. Yang-Deficient Constitution score has a potential to be developed as a predictor for early HIV-related mortality and side effects. The interrelation and underlying mechanisms should be further investigated for evidence-based design of a more appropriate treatment strategy.

Incidence of paradoxical tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome and impact on patient outcome

Objectives and Design

We used data from a randomized trial of HIV-tuberculosis co-infected patients in Mozambique to determine the incidence and predictors of paradoxical tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) occurring within 12 weeks of starting antiretroviral therapy, and to evaluate its association with patient outcome at 48 weeks.

Methods

HIV-tuberculosis co-infected and antiretroviral therapy-naïve adults with less than 250 CD4/mm3 were randomized to a nevirapine or efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy initiated 4 to 6 weeks after starting tuberculosis treatment, and were then followed for 48 weeks. Tuberculosis cases were diagnosed using WHO guidelines, and tuberculosis-IRIS by case definitions of the International Network for the Study of HIV-associated IRIS.

Results

The 573 HIV-tuberculosis co-infected patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy had a median CD4 count of 92 cells/mm³ and HIV-1 RNA of 5.6 log₁₀ copies/mL. Mortality at week 48 was 6.1% (35/573). Fifty-three (9.2%) patients presented a tuberculosis-IRIS within 12 weeks of starting antiretroviral therapy. Being female and having a low CD4 count, high HIV-1 RNA load, low body mass index and smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis were independently associated with tuberculosis-IRIS. After adjustment for baseline body mass index, CD4 count and hemoglobin, occurrence of tuberculosis-IRIS was independently associated with 48-week mortality (aOR 2.72 95%CI 1.14-6.54). Immunological and HIV-1 virological responses and tuberculosis treatment outcomes were not different between patients with and without tuberculosis-IRIS.

Conclusion

In this large prospective cohort, tuberculosis-IRIS occurrence within 12 weeks of starting antiretroviral therapy was independently associated with the mortality of HIV-tuberculosis co-infected patients at 48 weeks post antiretroviral therapy initiation.

Integrating Clinical Services for HIV, Tuberculosis, and Cryptococcal Disease in the Developing World

The success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in the developing world is limited by the lack of adequate diagnostic tests to screen for life-threatening opportunistic infections such as tuberculosis (TB) and cryptococcal disease. Furthermore, there is an increasing need for implementation research in measuring the effectiveness of currently available rapid diagnostic tests. The recently developed lateral flow assays for both cryptococcal disease and TB have the potential to improve care and greatly reduce the time to initiation of ART among individuals who need it the most. However, we caution that the data on feasibility and effectiveness of these assays are limited and such research agendas must be prioritized.

Low primary and secondary HIV drug-resistance after 12 months of antiretroviral therapy in human immune-deficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected individuals from Kigali, Rwanda

Treatment outcomes of HIV patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Rwanda are scarcely documented. HIV viral load (VL) and HIV drug-resistance (HIVDR) outcomes at month 12 were determined in a prospective cohort study of antiretroviral–naïve HIV patients initiating first-line therapy in Kigali. Treatment response was monitored clinically and by regular CD4 counts and targeted HIV viral load (VL) to confirm drug failure. VL measurements and HIVDR genotyping were performed retrospectively on baseline and month 12 samples. One hundred and fifty-eight participants who completed their month 12 follow-up visit had VL data available at month 12. Most of them (88%) were virologically suppressed (VL≤1000 copies/mL) but 18 had virological failure (11%), which is in the range of WHO-suggested targets for HIVDR prevention. If only CD4 criteria had been used to classify treatment response, 26% of the participants would have been misclassified as treatment failure. Pre-therapy HIVDR was documented in 4 of 109 participants (3.6%) with an HIVDR genotyping results at baseline. Eight of 12 participants (66.7%) with virological failure and HIVDR genotyping results at month 12 were found to harbor mutation(s), mostly NNRTI resistance mutations, whereas 4 patients had no HIVDR mutations. Almost half (44%) of the participants initiated ART at CD4 count ≤200cell/µl and severe CD4 depletion at baseline (<50 cells/µl) was associated with virological treatment failure (p = 0.008).

Although the findings may not be generalizable to all HIV patients in Rwanda, our data suggest that first-line ART regimen changes are currently not warranted. However, the accumulation of acquired HIVDR mutations in some participants underscores the need to reinforce HIVDR prevention strategies, such as increasing the availability and appropriate use of VL testing to monitor ART response, ensuring high quality adherence counseling, and promoting earlier identification of HIV patients and enrollment into HIV care and treatment programs.

Causes of death and risk factors for mortality among HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Korea

A retrospective study was conducted to determine the mortality, causes and risk factors for death among HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Korea. The outcomes were determined by time periods, during the first year of ART and during 1-5 yr after ART initiation, respectively. Patients lost to follow-up were traced to ascertain survival status. Among 327 patients initiating ART during 1998-2006, 68 patients (20.8%) died during 5-yr follow-up periods. Mortality rate per 100 person-years was 8.69 (95% confidence interval, 5.68-12.73) during the first year of ART, which was higher than 4.13 (95% confidence interval, 2.98-5.59) during 1-5 yr after ART. Tuberculosis was the most common cause of death in both periods (30.8% within the first year of ART and 16.7% during 1-5 yr after ART). During the first year of ART, clinical category B and C at ART initiation, and underlying malignancy were significant risk factors for mortality. Between 1 and 5 yr after ART initiation, CD4 cell count ≤ 50 cells/µL at ART initiation, hepatitis B virus co-infection, and visit constancy ≤ 50% were significant risk factors for death. This suggests that different strategies to reduce mortality according to the time period after ART initiation are needed.

Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI <18.5 kg/m², 28 (19%) died within 12 weeks. Lower pretreatment serum phosphate was associated with increased mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.24 per 0.1 mmol/L decrement, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.47; P = 0.01) after adjusting for sex, age, and CD4⁺ lymphocyte count. A similar relationship was not observed among participants with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m² (OR 0.96, 95% CI: 0.76 to 1.21; P = 0.74). Conclusions. The association of low pretreatment serum phosphate level and early ART mortality among undernourished individuals may represent a variant of the refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed.

Cardiometabolic risk factors among HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

HIV and combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) may increase cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We assessed the early effects of cART on CVD risk markers in a population with presumed low CVD risk.

METHODS

Adult patients (n=118) in Lusaka, Zambia were recruited at the time of initiation of cART for HIV/AIDS. Cardiometabolic risk factors were measured before and 90 days after starting cART. Participants were grouped according to cART regimens: Zidovudine + Lamivudine + Nevirapine (n=58); Stavudine + Lamivudine + Nevirapine (n=43); and 'other' (Zidovudine + Lamivudine + Efavirenz, Stavudine + Lamivudine + Efavirenz, Tenofovir + Emtricitabine + Efavirenz or Tenofovir + Emtricitabine + Nevirapine, n=17). ANOVA was used to test whether changes in cardiometabolic risk markers varied by cART regimen.

RESULTS

From baseline to 90 days after initiation of cART, the prevalence of low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (<1.04 mmol/L for men and <1.30 mmol/L for women) significantly decreased (78.8% vs. 34.8%, P<0.001) while elevated total cholesterol (TC ≥5.18 mmol/L, 5.1% vs. 11.9%, P=0.03) and the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance ≥3.0 (1.7% vs. 17.0%, P<0.001) significantly increased. The prevalence of TC:HDL-c ratio ≥5.0 significantly decreased (44.9% vs. 6.8%, P<0.001). These changes in cardiometabolic risk markers were independent of the cART regimen.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that short-term cART is associated with a cardioprotective lipid profile in Zambia and a tendency towards insulin resistance regardless of the cART regimen.

Immunologic risk factors for early mortality after starting antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected Zambian children

To explore immunologic risk factors for death within 90 days of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation, CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell subsets were measured by flow cytometry and characterized by logistic regression in 149 Zambian children between 9 months and 10 years of age enrolled in a prospective, observational study of the impact of HAART on measles immunity. Of 21 children who died during follow-up, 17 (81%) had known dates of death and 16 (76%) died within 90 days of initiating HAART. Young age and low weight-for-age z-scores were associated with increased risks of mortality within 90 days of starting HAART, whereas CD4(+) T cell percentage was not associated with mortality. After adjusting for these factors, each 10% increase in CD8(+) effector T cells increased the odds of overall mortality [OR=1.43 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.90)] and was marginally associated with early mortality [OR=1.29 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.72)]. Conversely, each 10% increase in CD4(+) central memory T cells decreased the odds of overall [OR=0.06 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.59)] and early mortality [OR=0.09 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.97)]. Logistic regression prediction models demonstrated areas under the receiver-operator characteristic curves of ≥85% for early and overall mortality, with bootstrapped sensitivities of 82-85% upon validation, supporting the predictive accuracy of the models. CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell subsets may be more accurate predictors of early mortality than CD4(+) T cell percentages and could be used to identify children who would benefit from more frequent clinical monitoring after initiating HAART.

Effects of physical tracing on estimates of loss to follow-up, mortality and retention in low and middle income country antiretroviral therapy programs: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

A large proportion of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have unknown treatment outcomes and are classified as lost to follow-up (LTFU). Physical tracing of patients classified as LTFU is common; however, effects of tracing on outcomes remains unclear. The objective of this systematic review is to compare estimates of LTFU, mortality and retention in LMIC in cohorts of patients with and without physical tracing.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We systematically identified studies in LMIC programmatic settings using MEDLINE (2003-2011) and HIV conference abstracts (2009-2011). Studies reporting the proportion LTFU 12-months after ART initiation were included. Tracing activities were determined from manuscripts or by contacting study authors. Studies were classified as "tracing studies" if physical tracing was available for the majority of patients. Summary estimates from the 2 groups of studies (tracing and non-tracing) for LTFU, mortality, stop of ART, transfers out, and retention on ART were determined. 261 papers and 616 abstracts were identified of which 39 studies comprising 54 separate cohorts (n = 187,666) met inclusion criteria. Of those, physical tracing was available for 46% of cohorts. Treatment programs with physical tracing activities had lower estimated LTFU (7.6% vs. 15.1%; p<.001), higher estimated mortality (10.5% vs. 6.6%; p = .006), higher retention on ART (80.0 vs. 75.8%; p = .04) and higher retention at the original site (80.0% vs. 72.9%; p = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge of patient tracing is critical when interpreting program outcomes of LTFU, mortality and retention. The reduction of the proportion LTFU in tracing studies was only partially explained by re-classification of unknown outcomes. These data suggest that tracing may lead to increased re-engagement of patients in care, rather than just improved classification of unknown outcomes.

Adaptation of a general primary care package for HIV-infected adults to an HIV centre setting in Gaborone, Botswana

BACKGROUND

As life expectancy of HIV-infected patients improves due to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and the importance of associated co-morbidities and chronic diseases increases, preventive care will become increasingly important. Adaptation of existing preventive guidelines to local environments will become a priority for HIV treatment programmes.

METHODS

Guidance from the World Health Organization, a focused evidenced-based literature review, Botswana national guidelines, Botswana-specific morbidity and mortality data and centre-specific data were used to adapt a published general primary care package for limited-resource areas to our centre's specific setting.

RESULTS

The preventive care package contains recommendations on tuberculosis prevention, malnutrition, depression, cervical and breast cancer, hepatitis B coinfection, cardiovascular risk factors, external injury prevention, domestic violence screening, tobacco and substance-abuse counselling, contraception and screening and treatment of sexually transmitted infections.

CONCLUSION

This preventive care package addresses the comprehensive health needs of HIV-infected adults in the FMC in an evidence-based manner. The process of combining clinic-specific prevalence data, national guidelines, regional literature and assessment of public-sector resources to adapt an existing general package could be utilised to develop similar guidelines in other resource-limited locales.

Mortality and its determinants among patients infected with HIV-1 on antiretroviral therapy in a referral centre in Yaounde, Cameroon: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Mortality has declined in people with HIV infection, subsequent to the improved access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed the incidence and determinants of mortality among patients with HIV-1 infection who were started on ART in a referral treatment centre for HIV infection in Yaounde, Cameroon.

DESIGN

Cohort study with baseline assessment between 2007 and 2008, and follow-up during 5 years until June 2012.

SETTING

The accredited HIV treatment centre of the Yaounde Jamot Hospital in the capital city of Cameroon.

PARTICIPANTS

People living with HIV infection who started ART between 2007 and 2008 at the study centre.

OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality over time; accelerated failure time models used to relate baseline characteristics to mortality occurrence during follow-up.

RESULTS

Of the 1444 patients included, 827 (53.7%) were men, and the median age (25-75th centiles) was 38 (31-45) years. The median duration of follow-up was 14.1 (1.1-46.4) months, during which 235 deaths were recorded (cumulative incidence rate: 16.3%), including 208 (88.5%) during the first year of follow-up. Baseline predictors of mortality were male gender (adjusted HR 2.15 (95% CI 1.34 to 3.45)), active tuberculosis (2.35 (1.40 to 3.92)), WHO stages III-IV of the disease (3.63 (1.29 to 10.24)), low weight (1.03 (1.01 to 1.05)/kg), low CD4 count (1.04 (1.01 to 1.07)/10/mm(3) lower CD4) and low haemoglobin levels (1.12 (1.00 to 1.26)/g/dL lower).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rate among patients with HIV is very high within the first year of starting ART in this centre. Early start of the treatment at a less advanced stage of the disease, and favourable levels of CD4 could reduce early mortality, but would have to be tested.

Causes of death on antiretroviral therapy: a post-mortem study from South Africa

Background

Mortality in the first months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a significant clinical problem in sub-Saharan Africa. To date, no post-mortem study has investigated the causes of mortality in these patients.

Methods

HIV-positive adults who died as in-patients at a Johannesburg academic hospital underwent chart-review and ultrasound-guided needle autopsy for histological and microbiological examination of lung, liver, spleen, kidney, bone marrow, lymph node, skin and cerebrospinal fluid. A clinico-pathologic committee considered all available data and adjudicated immediate and contributing causes of death.

Results

Thirty-nine adults were enrolled: 14 pre-ART, 15 early-ART (7–90 days), and 10 late-ART (>90 days). Needle sampling yielded adequate specimen in 100% of kidney, skin, heart and cerebrospinal fluid samples, 97% of livers and lungs, 92% of bone marrows, 87% of spleens and 68% of lymph nodes. Mycobacterial infections were implicated in 69% of deaths (26 of 27 of these due to M. tuberculosis), bacterial infections in 33%, fungal infections in 21%, neoplasm in 26%, and non-infectious organ failure in 26%. Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) was implicated in 73% of early-ART deaths. Post-mortem investigations revealed previously undiagnosed causes of death in 49% of cases. Multiple pathologies were common with 62% of subjects with mycobacterial infection also having at least one other infectious or neoplastic cause of death.

Conclusions

Needle biopsy was efficient and yielded excellent pathology. The large majority of deaths in all three groups were caused by M. tuberculosis suggesting an urgent need for improved diagnosis and expedited treatment prior to and throughout the course of antiretroviral therapy. Complex, unrecognized co-morbidities pose an additional challenge.

Clinic-Based Food Assistance is Associated with Increased Medication Adherence among HIV-Infected Adults on Long-Term Antiretroviral Therapy in Zambia

BACKGROUND: There has been limited research to date on the effects of food assistance provided to HIV-infected adults in resource-constrained settings with a high prevalence of malnutrition and chronic food insecurity. We compare antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, weight gain, and CD4+ lymphocyte count change among HIV-infected adults enrolled in a clinic-based food assistance program in Lusaka, Zambia versus a control group of non-recipients. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study incorporating interviewer-administered surveys and retrospective clinical data to compare ART patients receiving food assistance with a control group of non-recipients. Medication adherence was assessed using pharmacy dispensation records. We use propensity score matching to assess the effect of food assistance on outcome measures. RESULTS: After 6 months, food assistance recipients (n=145) had higher ART adherence compared to non-recipients (n=147, 98.3% versus 88.8%, respectively; p<0.01), but no significant effects were observed for weight or CD4+ lymphocyte count change. The improvement in adherence rates was greater for participants on ART for less than 230 days, and those with BMI<18.5 kg/m(2), a higher HIV disease stage, or a CD4+ lymphocyte count ≤ 350 cells/μl. CONCLUSIONS: Promoting optimal medication adherence among persons on ART is relevant to public health and the success of HIV control efforts. The provision of food assistance to HIV-infected adults on ART may have an incentivizing effect which can improve medication adherence, particularly among patients recently initiated on treatment and those with poor nutrition or advanced disease. The effects on body weight and immune reconstitution appear minimal.

Mortality in the year following antiretroviral therapy initiation in HIV-infected adults and children in Uganda and Zimbabwe

In low-income countries, children ≥4 years and adults with low CD4 count have equally high mortality risk in the 3 months after initiation of antiretroviral therapy, similar to that of untreated individuals. Bacterial infections play a major role; targeted interventions could have important benefits.

Background. Adult mortality in the first 3 months on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in low-income than in high-income countries, with more similar mortality after 6 months. However, the specific patterns of changing risk and causes of death have rarely been investigated in adults, nor compared with children in low-income countries.

Methods. We used flexible parametric hazard models to investigate how mortality risks varied over the first year on ART in human immunodeficiency virus–infected adults (aged 18–73 years) and children (aged 4 months to 15 years) in 2 trials in Zimbabwe and Uganda.

Results. One hundred seventy-nine of 3316 (5.4%) adults and 39 of 1199 (3.3%) children died; half of adult/pediatric deaths occurred in the first 3 months. Mortality variation over year 1 was similar; at all CD4 counts/CD4%, mortality risk was greatest between days 30 and 50, declined rapidly to day 180, then declined more slowly. One-year mortality after initiating ART with 0–49, 50–99 or ≥100 CD4 cells/μL was 9.4%, 4.5%, and 2.9%, respectively, in adults, and 10.1%, 4.4%, and 1.3%, respectively, in children aged 4–15 years. Mortality in children aged 4 months to 3 years initiating ART in equivalent CD4% strata was also similar (0%–4%: 9.1%; 5%–9%: 4.5%; ≥10%: 2.8%). Only 10 of 179 (6%) adult deaths and 1 of 39 (3%) child deaths were probably medication-related. The most common cause of death was septicemia/meningitis in adults (20%, median 76 days) and children (36%, median 79 days); pneumonia also commonly caused child deaths (28%, median 41 days).

Conclusions. Children ≥4 years and adults with low CD4 values have remarkably similar, and high, mortality risks in the first 3 months after ART initiation in low-income countries, similar to cohorts of untreated individuals. Bacterial infections are a major cause of death in both adults and children; targeted interventions could have important benefits.

Mortality and clinical outcomes in HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy in Malawi, Lesotho, and Swaziland

OBJECTIVE

To determine mortality and immune status improvement in HIV-infected pediatric patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Malawi, Lesotho, and Swaziland.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients aged <12 years at ART initiation at 3 sites in sub-Saharan Africa between 2004 and 2009. Twelve-month and overall mortality were estimated, and factors associated with mortality and immune status improvement were evaluated.

RESULTS

Included in the study were 2306 patients with an average follow-up time on ART of 2.3 years (interquartile range 1.5-3.1 years). One hundred four patients (4.5%) died, 9.0% were lost to follow-up, and 1.3% discontinued ART. Of the 104 deaths, 77.9% occurred in the first year of treatment with a 12-month mortality rate of 3.5%. The overall mortality rate was 2.25 deaths/100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.84-2.71). Increased 12-month mortality was associated with younger age; <6 months (hazard ratio [HR] = 8.11, CI 4.51-14.58), 6 to <12 months (HR = 3.43, CI 1.96-6.02), and 12 to <36 months (HR = 1.92, CI 1.16-3.19), and World Health Organization stage IV (HR = 4.35, CI 2.19-8.67). Immune status improvement at 12 months was less likely in patients with advanced disease and age <12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite challenges associated with pediatric ART in developing countries, low mortality and good treatment outcomes can be achieved. However, outcomes are worse in younger patients and those with advanced disease at the time of ART initiation, highlighting the importance of early diagnosis and treatment.

Self-reported dietary intake and appetite predict early treatment outcome among low-BMI adults initiating HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

Low BMI is a major risk factor for early mortality among HIV-infected persons starting antiretrovial therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and the common patient belief that antiretroviral medications produce distressing levels of hunger is a barrier to treatment adherence. We assessed relationships between appetite, dietary intake and treatment outcome 12 weeks after ART initiation among HIV-infected adults with advanced malnutrition and immunosuppression.

DESIGN

A prospective, observational cohort study. Dietary intake was assessed using a 24 h recall survey. The relationships of appetite, intake and treatment outcome were analysed using time-varying Cox models.

SETTING

A public-sector HIV clinic in Lusaka, Zambia.

SUBJECTS

One hundred and forty-two HIV-infected adults starting ART with BMI <16 kg/m2 and/or CD4+ lymphocyte count <50 cells/μl.

RESULTS

Median age, BMI and CD4+ lymphocyte count were 32 years, 16 kg/m2 and 34 cells/μl, respectively. Twenty-five participants (18%) died before 12 weeks and another thirty-three (23%) were lost to care. A 500 kJ/d higher energy intake at any time after ART initiation was associated with an approximate 16% reduction in the hazard of death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.84; P = 0.01), but the relative contribution of carbohydrate, protein or fat to total energy was not a significant predictor of outcome. Appetite normalized gradually among survivors and hunger was rarely reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor early ART outcomes were strikingly high in a cohort of HIV-infected adults with advanced malnutrition and mortality was predicted by lower dietary intake. Intervention trials to promote post-ART intake in this population may benefit survival and are warranted.

Assessment of simple risk markers for early mortality among HIV-infected patients in Guinea-Bissau: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Decisions about when to start an antiretroviral therapy (ART) are normally based on CD4 cell counts and viral load (VL). However, these measurements require equipment beyond the capacity of most laboratories in low-income and middle-income settings. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify and test simple markers to guide the optimal time for starting and for monitoring the effect of ART in developing countries.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To evaluate anthropometric measurements and measurement of plasma-soluble form of the urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) levels as potential risk factors for early mortality among HIV-infected patients; (2) to assess whether these markers could help identify patients to whom ART should be prioritised and (3) to determine if these markers may add information to CD4 cell count when VL is not available.

DESIGN

An observational study.

SETTING

The largest ART centre in Bissau, Guinea-Bissau.

PARTICIPANTS

1083 ART-naïve HIV-infected patients.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Associations between baseline anthropometric measurements, CD4 cell counts, plasma suPAR levels and survival were examined using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Low body mass index (BMI≤18.5 kg/m(2)), low mid-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC≤250 mm), low CD4 cell count (≤350 cells/μl) and high suPAR plasma levels (>5.3 ng/ml) were independent predictors of death. Furthermore, mortality among patients with low CD4 cell count, low MUAC or low BMI was concentrated in the highest suPAR quartile.

CONCLUSIONS

Irrespective of ART initiation and baseline CD4 count, MUAC and suPAR plasma levels were independent predictors of early mortality in this urban cohort. These markers could be useful in identifying patients at the highest risk of short-term mortality and may aid triage for ART when CD4 cell count is not available or when there is shortness of antiretroviral drugs.