A model to predict survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

Predicting operative outcomes of total shoulder arthroplasty using the model for end-stage liver disease score

Background

The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting postoperative complications following total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA).

Methods

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement database was queried for all patients who underwent TSA between 2015 and 2019. The study population was subsequently classified into two categories: those with a MELD score ≥ 10 and those with a MELD score < 10. A total of 5265 patients undergoing TSA between 2015 and 2019 were included in this study. Among these, 4690 (89.1%) patients had a MELD score ≥ 10, while 575 (10.9%) patients had a MELD score < 10. Postoperative complications within 30 days of the TSA were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the correlation between a MELD score ≥ 10 and postoperative complications. The anchor based optimal cutoff was calculated by receiver operating characteristic analysis to determine the MELD score cutoff that most accurately predicts a specific complication. Youden's index (J) determined the optimal cutoff point calculation for the maximum sensitivity and specificity; these were deemed to be "acceptable" if the area under curve (AUC) was greater than 0.7 and "excellent" if greater than 0.8.

Results

Multivariate regression analysis found a MELD score ≥ 10 to be independently associated with higher rates of reoperation (OR, 2.08; P = .013), cardiac complications (OR, 3.37; P = .030), renal complications (OR, 7.72; P = .020), bleeding transfusions (OR, 3.23; P < .001), and nonhome discharge (OR, 1.75; P < .001). The receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that AUC for a MELD score cutoff of 7.61 as a predictor of renal complications was 0.87 (excellent) with sensitivity of 100.0% and specificity of 70.0%. AUC for a MELD score cutoff of 7.76 as a predictor of mortality was 0.76 (acceptable) with sensitivity of 81.8% and specificity of 71.0%.

Conclusion

A MELD score ≥ 10 was correlated with high rates of reoperation, cardiac complications, renal complications, bleeding transfusions, and nonhome discharge following TSA. MELD score cutoffs of 7.61 and 7.76 were effective in predicting renal complications and mortality, respectively.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care unit patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) have a high mortality rate.

AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality of ICU patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

We extracted demographic, etiological, vital sign, laboratory test, comorbidity, complication, treatment, and severity score data of liver cirrhosis patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) and electronic ICU (eICU) collaborative research database (eICU-CRD). Predictor selection and model building were based on the MIMIC-IV dataset. The variables selected through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis were further screened through multivariate regression analysis to obtain final predictors. The final predictors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model, which was used to construct a nomogram. Finally, we conducted external validation using the eICU-CRD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), decision curve, and calibration curve were used to assess the efficacy of the models.

RESULTS

Risk factors, including the mean respiratory rate, mean systolic blood pressure, mean heart rate, white blood cells, international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, age, invasive ventilation, vasopressor use, maximum stage of acute kidney injury, and sequential organ failure assessment score, were included in the multivariate logistic regression. The model achieved AUCs of 0.864 and 0.808 in the MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD databases, respectively. The calibration curve also confirmed the predictive ability of the model, while the decision curve confirmed its clinical value.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram has high accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality. Improving the included predictors may help improve the prognosis of patients.

Association of Cardiopulmonary Hemodynamics and Mortality in Veterans With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Portopulmonary hypertension (PoPH), associated with increased mortality, can limit treatment options for liver diseases. Data on the continuum of clinical risk related to cardiopulmonary hemodynamics in PoPH are lacking.

METHODS AND RESULTS

As part of the United States national Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking database, we performed a retrospective cohort study of adults with cirrhosis undergoing right heart catheterization between October 1, 2017, and September 30, 2022. Pulmonary hypertension (mean pulmonary arterial pressure [mPAP] >20 mm Hg without PoPH) and PoPH (mPAP >20 mm Hg+pulmonary artery wedge pressure ≤15 mm Hg+pulmonary vascular resistance ≥3 WU) were defined by right heart catheterization hemodynamics. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards using natural splines for hemodynamic variables were used to evaluate the association between cardiopulmonary hemodynamics and mortality following right heart catheterization. A total of 4409 patients were included in the final analysis, predominantly men (96.3%), with a mean age of 68.5 years. Pulmonary hypertension and PoPH were observed in 71.6% and 10.2% of the cohort, respectively. Compared with a reference cardiac index of 2.5 L/min per m2, the hazard for mortality increased progressively with decreasing cardiac index, even after adjustment for mPAP and pulmonary vascular resistance. The minority of patients with PoPH (N=65, 14.5%) were prescribed pulmonary vasodilator therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that pulmonary hypertension and PoPH are prevalent in veterans with chronic liver disease, but low use of targeted PoPH therapy persists. Cardiac function discriminated mortality risk across a wide range of mPAP and pulmonary vascular resistance values and may diagnose and clarify prognosis in this patient population.

Development of novel prognostic models based on dynamic changes in risk factors for hepatitis B associated acute-on-chronic liver failure:a 10-year retrospective study

Background/Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with high short-term mortality, and early prediction is critical to reduce the deaths of ACLF patients. To date, however, the prognostic accuracy of current models for ACLF is unsatisfactory, particularly, in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. This study aims to develop novel prognostic models based on the dynamic changes in variables to predict the short-term mortality of HBV-associated ACLF (HBV-ACLF).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted, with the population comprised in whom ACLF was confirmed.319 patients were enrolled and their clinical data were collected on Days 1 and 7 following hospital admission. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify risk factors for 28 and 90-day mortality. The dynamic alterations in the risk factors were further analyzed, and Days 1 and 7 prognostic models were constructed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were used to identify and compared the predictors of prognosis among our model.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed significant risk factors at Days 1 and 7, which when combined with the clinically important parameters, were used to establish the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models. For 28-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Day 1 prognostic model was significantly higher than that of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) model. For 90-day mortality, the predictive accuracy of the Days 1 and 7 prognostic models was significantly higher than that of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and ALBI prognostic models.

Conclusions

The prognostic models established in this study were superior to the existing prognostic scoring systems to accurately predict short-term mortality, and therefore, could be potential novel prognostic tools for HBV-ACLF.

ALBI score combined with FIB-4 index to predict post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a potentially life-threatening complication following liver resection. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often occurs in patients with chronic liver disease, which increases the risk of PHLF. This study aimed to investigate the ability of the combination of liver function and fibrosis markers (ALBI score and FIB-4 index) to predict PHLF in patients with HCC. Patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between August 2012 and September 2022 were considered for inclusion. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with PHLF, and ALBI score and FIB-4 index were combined based on their regression coefficients. The performance of the combined ALBI-FIB4 score in predicting PHLF and postoperative mortality was compared with Child-Pugh score, MELD score, ALBI score, and FIB-4 index. A total of 215 patients were enrolled in this study. PHLF occurred in 35 patients (16.3%). The incidence of severe PHLF (grade B and grade C PHLF) was 9.3%. Postoperative 90-d mortality was 2.8%. ALBI score, FIB-4 index, prothrombin time, and extent of liver resection were identified as independent factors for predicting PHLF. The AUC of the ALBI-FIB4 score in predicting PHLF was 0.783(95%CI: 0.694-0.872), higher than other models. The ALBI-FIB4 score could divide patients into two risk groups based on a cut-off value of - 1.82. High-risk patients had a high incidence of PHLF of 39.1%, while PHLF just occurred in 6.6% of low-risk patients. Similarly, the AUCs of the ALBI-FIB4 score in predicting severe PHLF and postoperative 90-d mortality were also higher than other models. Preoperative ALBI-FIB4 score showed good performance in predicting PHLF and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC, superior to the currently commonly used liver function and fibrosis scoring systems.

Analytical Performance Specifications for Input Variables: Investigation of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence models constitute specific uses of analysis results and, therefore, necessitate evaluation of analytical performance specifications (APS) for this context specifically. The Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) is a clinical prediction model based on measurements of bilirubin, creatinine, and the international normalized ratio (INR). This study evaluates the propagation of error through the MELD, to inform choice of APS for the MELD input variables.

METHODS

A total of 6093 consecutive MELD scores and underlying analysis results were retrospectively collected. "Desirable analytical variation" based on biological variation as well as current local analytical variation was simulated onto the data set as well as onto a constructed data set, representing a worst-case scenario. Resulting changes in MELD score and risk classification were calculated.

RESULTS

Biological variation-based APS in the worst-case scenario resulted in 3.26% of scores changing by ≥1 MELD point. In the patient-derived data set, the same variation resulted in 0.92% of samples changing by ≥1 MELD point, and 5.5% of samples changing risk category. Local analytical performance resulted in lower reclassification rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Error propagation through MELD is complex and includes population-dependent mechanisms. Biological variation-derived APS were acceptable for all uses of the MELD score. Other combinations of APS can yield equally acceptable results. This analysis exemplifies how error propagation through artificial intelligence models can become highly complex. This complexity will necessitate that both model suppliers and clinical laboratories address analytical performance specifications for the specific use case, as these may differ from performance specifications for traditional use of the analyses.

Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver clinical practice guidelines on liver transplantation

Liver transplantation is a highly complex and challenging field of clinical practice. Although it was originally developed in western countries, it has been further advanced in Asian countries through the use of living donor liver transplantation. This method of transplantation is the only available option in many countries in the Asia-Pacific region due to the lack of deceased organ donation. As a result of this clinical situation, there is a growing need for guidelines that are specific to the Asia-Pacific region. These guidelines provide comprehensive recommendations for evidence-based management throughout the entire process of liver transplantation, covering both deceased and living donor liver transplantation. In addition, the development of these guidelines has been a collaborative effort between medical professionals from various countries in the region. This has allowed for the inclusion of diverse perspectives and experiences, leading to a more comprehensive and effective set of guidelines.

Variceal and Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Refractory to Endoscopic Management: Indications and Role of Interventional Radiology

For over 60 years, diagnostic and interventional radiology have been heavily involved in the evaluation and treatment of patients presenting with gastrointestinal bleeding. For patients who present with upper GI bleeding and have a contraindication to endoscopy or have an unsuccessful attempt at endoscopy for identifying or controlling the bleeding, interventional radiology is often consulted for evaluation and consideration of catheter-based intervention.

Sleeve Gastrectomy Reduces the Need for Liver Transplantation in Patients with Obesity and Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis: a Predictive Model

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States. As with the current obesity epidemic, the incidence of NASH continues to rise. However, the impact of broad utilization of bariatric surgery (BS) for patients with NASH is unknown, particularly in regard to mitigating the need for LT.

METHODS

Markov decision analysis was performed to simulate the lives of 20,000 patients with obesity and concomitant NASH who were deemed ineligible to be waitlisted for LT unless they achieved a body mass index (BMI) < 35 kg/m2. Life expectancy following medical weight management (MWM) and sleeve gastrectomy (SG) were estimated. Base case patients were defined as having NASH without fibrosis and a pre-intervention BMI of 45 kg/m2. Sensitivity analysis of initial BMI was performed.

RESULTS

Simulated base case analysis patients who underwent SG gained 14.3 years of life compared to patients who underwent MWM. One year after weight loss intervention, 9% of simulated MWM patients required LT compared to only 5% of SG patients. Survival benefit for SG was observed above a BMI of 32.2 kg/m2.

CONCLUSION

In this predictive model of 20,000 patients with obesity and concomitant NASH, surgical weight loss is associated with a reduction in the progression of NASH, thereby reducing the need for LT. A reduced BMI threshold of 32 kg/m2 for BS may offer survival benefit for patients with obesity and NASH.

CHALF Score: A Novel Tool to Rapidly Risk Stratify Children in Need of Liver Transplant Evaluation During Acute Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

Pediatric acute liver failure (PALF) can require emergent liver transplantation (LT, >25%) or lead to death (~15%). Existing models cannot predict clinical trajectory or survival with native liver (SNL). We aimed to create a predictive model for PALF clinical outcomes based on admission variables.

METHODS

A retrospective, single-center PALF cohort (April 2003 to January 2022) was identified using International Classification of Disease codes, selected using National Institutes of Health PALF Study Group (PALFSG) criteria, and grouped by clinical outcome (SNL, LT, or death). Significant admission variables were advanced for feature selection using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression with bootstrapping (5000×). A predictive model of SNL versus LT or death was created using logistic regression and validated using PALFSG data.

RESULTS

Our single-center cohort included 147 patients (58% SNL, 32% LT, 10% expired), while the PALFSG validation cohort included 492 patients (50% SNL, 35% LT, 15% expired). Admission variables associated with SNL included albumin (odds ratio [OR], 16; P < 0.01), ammonia (OR, 2.37; P < 0.01), and total bilirubin (OR, 2.25; P < 0.001). A model using these variables predicted SNL versus LT or death with high accuracy (accuracy [0.75 training, 0.70 validation], area under the curve [0.83 training, 0.78 validation]). A scaled score (CHLA-acute liver failure score) was created that predicted SNL versus LT or death with greater accuracy (C statistic 0.83) than Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (C statistic 0.76) and admission liver injury unit (C statistic 0.76) scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The CHLA-acute liver failure score predicts SNL versus LT or mortality in PALF using admission laboratories with high accuracy. This novel, externally validated model offers an objective guide for urgent referral to a pediatric LT center.

A novel prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) implies high short-term mortality rates and usually requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Proper prognosis for these patients is crucial for early referral for liver transplantation. The superiority of CLIF-C ACLF score in Asian patients with ACLF admitted to an ICU remains inconclusive when compared to other scoring systems. The purpose of the study is (i) to compare the predictive performance of original MELD, MELD-Lactate, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF-Lactate, and APACHE-II scores for short-term mortality assessment. (ii) to build and validate a novel scoring system and to compare its predictive performance to that of the original five scores. Two hundred sixty-five consecutive cirrhotic patients with ACLF who were admitted to our ICU were enrolled. The prognostic values for mortality were assessed by ROC analysis. A novel model was developed and internally validated using fivefold cross-validation. Alcohol abuse was identified as the primary etiology of cirrhosis. The AUROC of the five prognostic scores were not significantly superior to each other in predicting 1-month and 3-month mortality. The newly developed prognostic model, incorporating age, alveolar-arterial gradient (A-a gradient), BUN, total bilirubin level, INR, and HE grades, exhibited significantly improved performance in predicting 1-month and 3-month mortality with AUROC of 0.863 and 0.829, respectively, as compared to the original five prognostic scores. The novel ACLF model seems to be superior to the original five scores in predicting short-term mortality in ACLF patients admitted to an ICU. Further rigorous validation is required.

Infections increase the risk of decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease

Background & Aims

Infections are frequent in patients with cirrhosis and worsen prognosis. We evaluated the incidence of infections and their impact on decompensation and death in patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) during long-term follow-up.

Methods

We performed a prospective cohort study of patients in secondary care with a history of excess alcohol intake, no prior decompensation, and with liver biopsies along with clinical investigations conducted at baseline. During follow-up, we reviewed the patients' electronic healthcare records for cases of infections, hospitalizations, transient elastography measurements, decompensations, all-cause mortality, and alcohol intake.

Results

We included 461 patients with a mean age of 56±10 years (76% males; fibrosis stage F0-1/F2/F3-4 = 259/107/93 [56%/23%/20%]). During a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR 2.9-6.3), 134 patients (29%) developed a total of 312 infections, most frequently pneumonia (106/312, 34%) and urinary tract infections (57/312, 18%). Excessive alcohol intake during follow-up, smoking ≥30 pack years, MELD score and elevated liver stiffness during follow-up were independent predictors of infections. Patients who developed at least one infection had a significantly increased risk of subsequent decompensation (hazard ratio 4.98, 95% CI 2.47-10.03) and death (hazard ratio 8.24, 95% CI 4.65-14.59). Infections increased the risk of decompensation and death independently of baseline fibrosis stage, age, gender, and MELD score.

Conclusions

Almost one-third of patients with early ALD develop an infection, which worsens their prognosis by increasing the risk of decompensation and death. The risk of infections increases with liver disease severity and ongoing harmful use of alcohol.

Impact and implications

This study reveals that infections significantly worsen the prognosis of patients with early alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), increasing the likelihood of decompensation and death by up to eight times. These findings, pertinent to healthcare providers, researchers, and policymakers, emphasize the importance of early prevention and management of infections in patients with ALD, even those in early stages who may be asymptomatic. It was observed that nearly one-third of patients with early-stage ALD developed infections over 4.5 years, with risk factors including alcohol overuse, smoking, and higher MELD scores. The research underscores the critical need to incorporate these insights into clinical practice and public health policies to improve patient outcomes and mitigate the impact of infections in patients with ALD.

Futility and poor outcomes are not the same thing: A clinical perspective of refined outcomes definitions in liver transplantation

The term "futility" in liver transplantation is used inappropriately and inaccurately, as it is frequently applied to patient populations with suboptimal outcomes that are often not truly "futile." The term "futile" is used interchangeably with poor outcomes. Not all poor outcomes fulfill a definition of futility when considering all viewpoints. Definitions of "futility" are variable throughout the medical literature. We review futility in the context of liver transplantation, encompassing various viewpoints, with a goal to propose focused outcome definitions, including futility, that encompass broader viewpoints, and improve the utilization of "futility" to truly futile situations, and improve communication between providers and patients/families. Focused, appropriate definitions will help the transplant community develop better models to more accurately predict and avoid futile transplants, and better predict an individual patient's posttransplant outcome.

Merits and boundaries of the BCLC staging and treatment algorithm: Learning from the past to improve the future with a novel proposal

In this Expert Opinion, we thoroughly analyse the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging and treatment algorithm for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that, since 1999, has standardised HCC management, offering a structured approach for the prognostic evaluation and treatment of patients with HCC. The first part of the article presents the strengths and evolutionary improvements of the BCLC staging system. Nevertheless, both patient characteristics and available treatments have changed in the last two decades, limiting the role of the BCLC criteria for treatment allocation in a growing number of patients. As therapeutic options expand and become more effective, the stage-linked treatment decision-making algorithm may lead to undertreatment and suboptimal outcomes for patients with disease beyond early-stage HCC. Consequently, strict adherence to BCLC criteria is limited in expert centres, particularly for patients diagnosed beyond early-stage HCC. Although the BCLC system remains the benchmark against which other therapeutic frameworks must be judged, the era of precision medicine calls for patient-tailored therapeutic decision-making (by a multidisciplinary tumour board) rather than stage-dictated treatment allocation. Acknowledging this conceptual difference in clinical management, the second part of the article describes a novel "multiparametric therapeutic hierarchy", which integrates a comprehensive assessment of clinical factors, biomarkers, technical feasibility, and resource availability. Lastly, considering the increasing efficacy of locoregional and systemic treatments, the concept of "converse therapeutic hierarchy" is introduced. These treatments can increase the feasibility (conversion approach) and effectiveness (adjuvant approach of systemic therapy) of potentially curative approaches to greatly improve clinical outcomes.

Favorable Outcomes of Liver Transplantation for Hepatopulmonary Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a pulmonary vascular complication of chronic liver disease, which develops insidiously as a result of chronic liver disease. The prognosis for untreated patients with HPS is extremely poor, and liver transplantation (LT) serves as the only effective means for treating this condition. Here, we performed a retrospective analysis to evaluate the efficacy of LT on the survival and long-term prognosis of patients with HPS.

METHODS

Clinical data, including survival and postoperative efficacy, from patients with HPS from records as obtained over the period from January 1 to December 31, 2022. All records were from a waiting list for LT at the Beijing Friendship Hospital Affiliated with Capital Medical University.

RESULTS

Among the 274 patients on the LT waiting list, 37 were diagnosed with HPS (13.50%) and were enrolled. Survival rates of patients with HPS receiving an LT were greater, whereas a statistically significant difference was obtained between patients with LT vs non-LT with moderate to severe HPS (P = .003). The overall time until death without LT was 4-72 days after their initial HPS diagnosis. Patients with HPS receiving an LT showed a significant improvement in the state of oxygenation after surgery (P = .001).

CONCLUSION

Comprehensive preoperative screening of patients on the waiting list for LT is critical to identify those patients with HPS who would maximally benefit from LT. Survival rates of patients with moderate to severe HPS are significantly increased after LT, a procedure that should be performed as soon as possible in these patients with HPS.

Further decompensation in cirrhosis: Results of a large multicenter cohort study supporting Baveno VII statements

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The prognostic weight of further decompensation in cirrhosis is still unclear. We investigated the incidence of further decompensation and its effect on mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Multicenter cohort study. The cumulative incidence of further decompensation (development of a second event or complication of a decompensating event) was assessed using competing risks analysis in 2028 patients. A 4-state model was built: first decompensation, further decompensation, liver transplant, and death. A cause-specific Cox model was used to assess the adjusted effect of further decompensation on mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed for patients included before or after 1999. In a mean follow-up of 43 months, 1192 patients developed further decompensation and 649 died. Corresponding 5-year cumulative incidences were 52% and 35%, respectively. The cumulative incidences of death and liver transplant after further decompensation were 55% and 9.7%, respectively. The most common further decompensating event was ascites/complications of ascites. Five-year probabilities of state occupation were 24% alive with first decompensation, 21% alive with further decompensation, 7% alive with a liver transplant, 16% dead after first decompensation without further decompensation, 31% dead after further decompensation, and <1% dead after liver transplant. The HR for death after further decompensation, adjusted for known prognostic indicators, was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.23-1.71) ( p <0.001). The significant impact of further decompensation on survival was confirmed in patients included before or after 1999.

CONCLUSIONS

In cirrhosis, further decompensation occurs in ~60% of patients, significantly increases mortality, and should be considered a more advanced stage of decompensated cirrhosis.

Determinants, profile and outcomes of hepatitis A virus-associated severe acute liver injury in adults

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Hepatitis A virus (HAV)-related hepatitis is witnessing an epidemiological transition with increasing trends in adults. While uncomplicated hepatitis remains common, evidence suggests it to be a growing cause for acute liver failure (ALF). In between the two extremes exists severe acute liver injury (s-ALI) which has a propensity to transition to ALF. We aimed at describing the clinical profile of patients with HAV-related s-ALI and identifying potential predictors of progression to ALF.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective analysis of adult patients admitted with HAV-related s-ALI between April 2022 and December 2023. Demographic and laboratory parameters were compared between patients with only s-ALI and those with ALF. Predictors of progression from s-ALI to ALF were identified using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Forty-three patients satisfied criteria of s-ALI, of which 33 (76.7%) had only s-ALI, while 10 (23.3%) had ALF. Patients with s-ALI had lesser leukocytosis (6.3 ± 3 vs. 13.2 ± 4.8), less incidence of acute kidney injury (9.1% vs. 40%) and lower model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) (20 [18-24.5] vs. 31.5 [26-42]), arterial lactate (2.1 [1.3-3.1] vs. 6.3 [5.2-8.0]), arterial ammonia (94 [72-118] vs. 299 [188-573]), procalcitonin (0.5 [0.28-1.25] vs. 3.2 [1.2-6.1]) and ferritin (482 [213-1633] vs. 5186 [1341-11,053]) compared to HAV-ALF (p < 0.05 for all). Three patients (9.09%) with s-ALI progressed to ALF of whom one (3%) died. Baseline ammonia levels (unadjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.03 [1.01-1.06]) and leukocyte count (OR 1.00 [1.00-1.01]) tended to be associated with ALF progression, although none was significant after multi-variable adjustment. Ammonia levels had an area under receiver operating curve of 0.816 (0.64-0.93) (p = 0.009) (cut-off of 144 μmol/L). Additional comorbidities did not impact overall outcomes.

CONCLUSION

HAV presents as s-ALI in young adults, with almost one in 10 progressing to ALF. Baseline ammonia may be an important predictor of progression even in s-ALI, but mandates larger well-designed studies.

Recovery of cardiac electrophysiological alterations by heart rate complexity based on multiscale entropy following liver transplantation

Autonomic nervous dysfunction is a known cardiac sequalae in patients with end-stage liver disease and is associated with a poor prognosis. Heart rate analysis using nonlinear models such as multiscale entropy (MSE) or complexity may identify marked changes in these patients where conventional heart rate variability (HRV) measurements do not. To investigate the application of heart rate complexity (HRC) based on MSE in liver transplantation settings. Thirty adult recipients of elective living donor liver transplantation were enrolled. HRV parameters using conventional HRV analysis and HRC analysis were obtained at the following time points: (1) 1 day before surgery, (2) postoperative day (POD) 7, (3) POD 14, (4) POD 90, and (5) POD 180. Preoperatively, patients with MELD score ≥ 25 had significantly lower HRC compared to patients with lower MELD scores. This difference in HRC disappeared by POD 7 following liver transplantation and subsequent analyses at POD 90 and 180 continued to show no significant difference. Our results indicated a significant negative correlation between HRC based on MSE analysis and liver disease severity preoperatively, which may be more sensitive than conventional linear HRV analysis. HRC in patients with MELD score ≧ 25 improved over time and became comparable to those with MELD < 25 as early as in 7 days.

Use of machine learning models for the prognostication of liver transplantation: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is a life-saving intervention for patients with end-stage liver disease. However, the equitable allocation of scarce donor organs remains a formidable challenge. Prognostic tools are pivotal in identifying the most suitable transplant candidates. Traditionally, scoring systems like the model for end-stage liver disease have been instrumental in this process. Nevertheless, the landscape of prognostication is undergoing a transformation with the integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence models.

AIM

To assess the utility of ML models in prognostication for LT, comparing their per formance and reliability to established traditional scoring systems.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines, we conducted a thorough and standardized literature search using the PubMed/MEDLINE database. Our search imposed no restrictions on publication year, age, or gender. Exclusion criteria encompassed non-English stu dies, review articles, case reports, conference papers, studies with missing data, or those exhibiting evident methodological flaws.

RESULTS

Our search yielded a total of 64 articles, with 23 meeting the inclusion criteria. Among the selected studies, 60.8% originated from the United States and China combined. Only one pediatric study met the criteria. Notably, 91% of the studies were published within the past five years. ML models consistently demonstrated satisfactory to excellent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (ranging from 0.6 to 1) across all studies, surpassing the performance of traditional scoring systems. Random forest exhibited superior predictive capa bilities for 90-d mortality following LT, sepsis, and acute kidney injury (AKI). In contrast, gradient boosting excelled in predicting the risk of graft-versus-host disease, pneumonia, and AKI.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the potential of ML models in guiding decisions related to allograft allocation and LT, marking a significant evolution in the field of prognostication.

Hypoalbuminemia and Risk of Portal Vein Thrombosis in Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hypoalbuminemia, as defined by serum albumin (SA) levels ≤35 g/L, is associated to venous and arterial thrombosis in general population and in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease. It is unknown if SA ≤35 g/L is also associated to portal vein thrombosis (PVT) in cirrhosis.

METHODS

Cirrhotic patients enrolled in the Portal vein thrombosis Relevance On Liver cirrhosis: Italian Venous thrombotic Events Registry (PRO-LIVER) study (n = 753), were followed-up for 2 years to assess the risk of PVT, that was diagnosed by Doppler ultrasonography. Child-Pugh classes, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, presence of hepatocellular carcinoma and laboratory variables including SA, D-dimer, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were measured at baseline.

RESULTS

SA ≤35 g/L was detected in 52% of patients. A logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that higher Child-Pugh class, hepatocellular carcinoma and thrombocytopenia were significantly associated to SA ≤35 g/L. In a subgroup of patients where data regarding hs-CRP and D-dimer were available, SA ≤35 g/L was inversely associated with hs-CRP and D-dimer. During the follow-up, a total of 61 patients experienced PVT. A Kaplan Meier survival analysis showed SA ≤35 g/L was associated to increased risk of PVT compared to SA >35 g/L (P = .005). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that male sex, lower platelet count, and SA ≤35 g/L remained associated to PVT after adjusting for confounding factors.

CONCLUSION

Cirrhotic patients with SA ≤35 g/L are at higher risk of experiencing PVT compared to those with SA >35 g/L and could be considered as potential candidates to anticoagulant prophylaxis for PVT prevention.

The scientific rationale and study protocol for the DPP3, Angiotensin II, and Renin Kinetics in Sepsis (DARK-Sepsis) randomized controlled trial: serum biomarkers to predict response to angiotensin II versus standard-of-care vasopressor therapy in the treatment of septic shock

BACKGROUND

Data to support the use of specific vasopressors in septic shock are limited. Since angiotensin II (AT2) was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2017, multiple mechanistically distinct vasopressors are available to treat septic shock, but minimal data exist regarding which patients are most likely to benefit from each agent. Renin and dipeptidyl peptidase 3 (DPP3) are components of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system which have been shown to outperform lactate in predicting sepsis prognosis, and preliminary data suggest they could prove useful as biomarkers to guide AT2 use in septic shock.

METHODS

The DARK-Sepsis trial is an investigator-initiated industry-funded, open-label, single-center randomized controlled trial of the use of AT2 versus standard of care (SOC) vasopressor therapy in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with vasodilatory shock requiring norepinephrine ≥ 0.1 mcg/kg/min. In both groups, a series of renin and DPP3 levels will be obtained over the first 24 h of treatment with AT2 or SOC. The primary study outcome will be the ability of these biomarkers to predict response to vasopressor therapy, as measured by change in total norepinephrine equivalent dose of vasopressors at 3 h post-drug initiation or the equivalent timepoint in the SOC arm. To determine if the ability to predict vasopressor response is specific to AT2 therapy, the primary analysis will be the ability of baseline renin and DPP3 levels to predict vasopressor response adjusted for treatment arm (AT2 versus control) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores. Secondary outcomes will include rates of acute kidney injury, need for mechanical ventilation and kidney replacement therapy, lengths of stay in the ICU and hospital, ICU and hospital mortality, and rates of prespecified adverse events.

DISCUSSION

With an armamentarium of mechanistically distinct vasopressor agents now available, sub-phenotyping patients using biomarkers has the potential to improve septic shock outcomes by enabling treatment of the correct patient with the correct vasopressor at the correct time. However, this approach requires validation in a large definitive multicenter trial. The data generated through the DARK-Sepsis study will prove crucial to the optimal design and patient enrichment of such a pivotal trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05824767. Registered on April 24, 2023.

Risk of Cerebral Aneurysm Rupture After Liver Transplantation: Development and Validation of a Hemorrhagic Stroke Scoring Model

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) patients appear to be more prone to neurological events compared to individuals undergoing other types of solid-organ transplantation. The aims of the present study were to analyze the prevalence of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) in patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) and to examine the perioperative occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Also, it intended to systematically identify the risk factors of SAH and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) within a year after LT and to develop a scoring system which involves distinct clinical features of LT patients.

METHODS

Patients who underwent LT from January 2012 to March 2022 were analyzed. All included patients underwent neurovascular imaging within 6 months before LT. We conducted an analysis of prevalence and radiological features of UIA and SAH. The clinical factors that may have an impact on HS within one year of LT were also reviewed.

RESULTS

Total of 3,487 patients were enrolled in our study after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria. The prevalence of UIA was 5.4%. The incidence of SAH and HS within one year following LT was 0.5% and 1.6%, respectively. We developed a scoring system based on multivariable analysis to predict the HS within 1-year after LT. The variables were a poor admission mental status, the diagnosis of UIA, serum ammonia levels, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. Our model showed good discrimination among the development (C index, 0.727; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.635-0.820) and validation (C index, 0.719; 95% CI, 0.598-0.801) cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of UIA and SAH was very low in LT patients. A poor admission mental status, diagnosis of UIA, serum ammonia levels, and MELD scores were significantly associated with the risk of HS within one year after LT. Our scoring system showed a good discrimination to predict the HS in LT patients.

Association of iron overload with infectious complications in liver transplant recipients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This study was performed to examine the possible association of iron overload with infectious complications and survival among liver transplant recipients.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published in the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases up to September 2022. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted to estimate the association of iron overload with infectious outcomes and overall survival after liver transplantation.

RESULTS

Eight studies involving 2817 recipients met the inclusion criteria. Iron overload was strongly associated with an increased risk of infection after liver transplantation (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.03-2.68). An increase in the serum ferritin level was associated with an increased risk of infection after liver transplantation (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.09-1.91). Iron overload was a significant predictor of worse overall survival (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.11-1.64). In addition, a high serum ferritin level was significantly associated with an increased risk of death (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.10-1.64).

CONCLUSION

Iron overload may be associated with a higher risk of infectious complications and a worse prognosis among liver transplant recipients.

Effect of hyperbilirubinemia on the accuracy of continuous non-invasive hemoglobin measurements in liver transplantation recipients

This study evaluated the effect of hyperbilirubinemia on the accuracy of continuous non-invasive hemoglobin (SpHb) measurements in liver transplantation recipients. Overall, 1465 SpHb and laboratory hemoglobin (Hb) measurement pairs (n = 296 patients) were analyzed. Patients were grouped into normal (< 1.2 mg/dL), mild-to-moderate (1.2-3.0 mg/dL), and severe (> 3.0 mg/dL) hyperbilirubinemia groups based on the preoperative serum total bilirubin levels. Bland-Altman analysis showed a bias of 0.20 (95% limit of agreement, LoA: - 2.59 to 3.00) g/dL, 0.98 (95% LoA: - 1.38 to 3.35) g/dL, and 1.23 (95% LoA: - 1.16 to 3.63) g/dL for the normal, mild-to-moderate, and severe groups, respectively. The four-quadrant plot showed reliable trending ability in all groups (concordance rate > 92%). The rates of possible missed transfusion (SpHb > 7.0 g/dL for Hb < 7.0 g/dL) were higher in the hyperbilirubinemia groups (2%, 7%, and 12% for the normal, mild-to-moderate, and severe group, respectively. all P < 0.001). The possible over-transfusion rate was less than 1% in all groups. In conclusion, the use of SpHb in liver transplantation recipients with preoperative hyperbilirubinemia requires caution due to the positive bias and high risk of missed transfusion. However, the reliable trending ability indicated its potential use in clinical settings.

Different serum sodium assay, different model for end stage liver disease - sodium scores in patients awaiting liver transplant: A cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Sodium can be measured with direct or indirect methods; abnormal plasma total protein concentration can impact on sodium measured by indirect ion-selective electrodes (ISE). Serum sodium is an important item to determine the Model for End Stage Liver Disease Sodium (MELD-Na) score, commonly used for liver graft allocation. Patients with cirrhosis usually have hypoproteinemia. The aim of this study was to determine if there was a significant difference between the MELD-Na scores calculated based on the results of two different serum sodium ISE: indirect and direct.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study; we included 166 patients that underwent liver transplant assessment, and that had paired (i.e. same date and time) direct and indirect sodium determinations. We calculated the MELD-Na scores with both sodium determinations, and we compared them.

RESULTS

There was a significant difference between MELD-Na scores; the mean difference was 0.4±1.3. If MELD-Na score had been determined by the sodium measured by the direct ISE, 69 patients (42%) would have stayed in the same place on the waiting list, 67 patients (40%) would have moved up, and 30 patients (18%) would have moved down.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a statistically significant difference between the MELD-Na scores calculated based on the two different sodium concentrations, which would theoretically result in changes in the order of the waiting list. This finding should prompt studies to assess if MELD-Na calculated based on direct methods has a better performance to predict clinically relevant outcomes.

Liver cirrhosis and antibiotic therapy but not TIPS application leads to a shift of the intestinal bacterial communities: A controlled, prospective study

OBJECTIVES

The gut-liver axis is discussed to play an important role in hepatic cirrhosis. Decompensated liver cirrhosis is associated with portal hypertension, which can lead to a variety of complications. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an established treatment option for the complications of portal hypertension. In this study we focused on the effect of TIPS on intestinal microbial composition in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

Thirty patients with liver cirrhosis were compared to 18 healthy adults. Seventeen patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension received a TIPS. Clinical characteristics, including age, sex, and liver function measured with a Child-Pugh score and model for end-stage liver disease score, were obtained. Intestinal microbial composition was assessed via 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing from stool probes before and after TIPS.

RESULTS

TIPS led to a reduction of hepatic venous pressure gradient. However, TIPS did not cause a shift in the intestinal bacterial communities. Independent from the application of TIPS, antibiotic therapy was associated with a significant difference in the intestinal bacterial microbiota and also a reduced α-diversity. In addition, a significant difference was observed in the intestinal bacterial composition between patients with liver cirrhosis and healthy controls.

CONCLUSION

The presence of liver cirrhosis and the use of antibiotic therapy, but not the application of TIPS, were associated with a significant shift of the intestinal bacterial communities, showing a high impact on the microbiota of patients with liver cirrhosis.

Model for end-stage liver disease-3.0 vs. model for end-stage liver disease-sodium: mortality prediction in Korea

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) serves as an indicator for short-term mortality among patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis (LC) and is used to prioritize patients for liver transplantation. In 2021, the updated version of MELD, MELD-3.0, was introduced to improve the accuracy of the mortality prediction of MELD. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the efficacy of MELD 3.0 and MELD-Na in predicting mortality among Korean patients with LC.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted using the medical records of patients diagnosed with LC who were admitted to Konkuk University Hospital From 2011 to 2021. The study calculated the predictive values of MELD-Na and MELD-3.0 for 3- and 6-months mortality using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and compared the results using the DeLong test.

RESULTS

Of the 3,034 patients enrolled in the study, 339 (11.2%) died within 3 months and 421 (14.4%) died within 6 months. The AUROCs values for predicting 3 months mortality were 0.846 for MELD-Na and 0.851 for MELD-3.0. The corresponding AUROC values for predicting 6 months mortality were 0.843 for MELD-Na and 0.848 for MELD-3.0. MELD-3.0 exhibited better discrimination ability than MELD-Na for both 3 (p = 0.03) and 6 months mortality (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our study found a significant difference between the performance of MELD-3.0 and MELD-Na in Korean patients with LC.

Enhancing ACLF prediction by integrating sarcopenia assessment and frailty in liver transplant candidates on the waiting list

Background & Aims

Malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty are prevalent in cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the correlation between assessment tools for malnutrition, sarcopenia, and frailty in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), and to identify a predictive model for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) development.

Methods

This prospective single-center study enrolled consecutive patients with cirrhosis on the WL for LT (May 2019-November 2021). Assessments included subjective global assessment, CT body composition, skeletal muscle index (SMI), ultrasound thigh muscle thickness, sarcopenia HIBA score, liver frailty index (LFI), hand grip strength, and 6-minute walk test at enrollment. Correlations were analyzed using Pearson's correlation. Competing risk regression analysis was used to assess the predictive ability of the liver- and functional physiological reserve-related variables for ACLF.

Results

A total of 132 patients, predominantly with decompensated cirrhosis (87%), were included. Our study revealed a high prevalence of malnutrition (61%), sarcopenia (61%), visceral obesity (20%), sarcopenic visceral obesity (17%), and frailty (10%) among participants. Correlations between the assessment tools for sarcopenia and frailty were poor. Sarcopenia by SMI remained prevalent when frailty assessments were not usable. After a median follow-up of 10 months, 39% of the patients developed ACLF on WL, while 28% experienced dropouts without ACLF. Multivariate analysis identified MELD-Na, SMI, and LFI as independent predictors of ACLF on the WL. The predictive model MELD-Na-sarcopenia-LFI had a C-statistic of 0.85.

Conclusions

The poor correlation between sarcopenia assessment tools and frailty underscores the importance of a comprehensive evaluation. The SMI, LFI, and MELD-Na independently predicted ACLF development in WL. These findings enhance our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia, frailty, and ACLF in patients awaiting LT, emphasizing the need for early detection and intervention to improve WL outcomes.

Impact and implications

The relationship between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools, as well as their ability to predict acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list (WL), remains poorly understood. Existing objective frailty screening tests have limitations when applied to critically ill patients. The correlation between sarcopenia and frailty assessment tools was weak, suggesting that they may capture different phenotypes. Sarcopenia assessed by skeletal muscle index, frailty evaluated using the liver frailty index, and the model for end-stage liver disease-Na score independently predicted the development of ACLF in patients on the WL. Our findings support the integration of liver frailty index and skeletal muscle index assessments at the time of inclusion on the WL for LT. This combined approach allows for the identification of a specific patient subgroup with an increased susceptibility to ACLF, underscoring the importance of early implementation of targeted treatment strategies to improve outcomes for patients awaiting LT.

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy is associated with a higher risk of overt hepatic encephalopathy and poorer survival

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) is a frequent complication in patients with liver cirrhosis. Its impact on predicting the development of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) and survival has not been studied in large multicenter studies.

METHODS

Data from patients recruited at eight centers across Europe and the United States were analyzed. MHE was detected using the psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES). A subset was also tested with the simplified animal naming test (S-ANT1). Patients were followed for OHE development and death/liver transplantation (LTx).

RESULTS

A total of 1462 patients with a median model of end-stage liver disease of 11 were included (Child-Pugh (CP) stages: A 47%/B 41%/C 12%). Median follow-up time was 19 months, during which 336 (23%) patients developed an OHE episode and 464 (32%) reached the composite end point of death/LTx (369 deaths, 95 LTx). In multivariable analyses, MHE (defined by PHES) was associated with the development of OHE (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.74, p < 0.001) and poorer LTx-free survival (hazard ratio 1.53, p < 0.001) in the total cohort as well as in the subgroup of patients without a history of OHE. In subgroup analyses, MHE (defined by PHES) was associated with OHE development in patients with CP B, whereas there was no association in patients with CP A or C. In the subgroup of patients with available S-ANT1, MHE (defined by S-ANT1) was independently associated with OHE development. Combined testing (PHES+S-ANT1) was superior to single testing for predicting OHE and poorer LTx-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

This large multicenter study demonstrates that screening for MHE is a useful tool for predicting OHE and poorer survival.

A model including standardized weight improved predicting waiting list mortality in adolescent liver transplant candidates: A US national study

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been employed to identify adolescents eligible for liver transplantation since 2004. However, the optimal model for prioritizing adolescent candidates is uncertain. In our study, we aimed at evaluating the value of adding anthropometric variables to liver transplantation allocation models among adolescents. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Standard Transplant Analysis and Research to identify adolescent patients registered on the liver transplant waiting list in the United States between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2022. Adolescents (12-17 y) who were listed for their first liver transplantation were included. We evaluated the performance of different models including pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine, MELD, and MELD 3.0. Furthermore, we evaluated whether adding anthropometric variables ( z -score for weight and height) would improve the models' performance for our primary outcome (mortality at 90 days after listing). We identified 1421 eligible adolescent patients. Adding a z -score of weight (MELD-TEEN) improved the performance and discrimination of the MELD score. The final model including weight z -score (MELD-TEEN) had better discriminative power compared to MELD 3.0 and pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine in the overall cohort and in different age groups (ages 12-14 and 15-17). MELD-TEEN could improve the accuracy of allocation of liver transplants among adolescents by incorporating the weight z -score compared to MELD 3.0 and pediatric end-stage liver disease with Na and creatinine.

Changes of long-term survival of resection and liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma throughout the years: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) still is one of the most detrimental malignant diseases in the world. As two curative surgical therapies exist, the discussion whether to opt for liver resection (LR) or transplantation (LT) is ongoing, especially as novel techniques to improve outcome have emerged for both. The aim of the study was to investigate how the utilization and outcome of the respective modalities changed through time.

METHODS

We searched Medline and PubMed for relevant publications comparing LT and LR in HCC patients during the time period from 1990 to 2022, prior to March 31, 2023. A total of 63 studies involving 19,804 patients - of whom 8178 patients received a liver graft and 11,626 underwent partial hepatectomy - were included in this meta-analysis.

RESULTS

LT is associated with significantly better 5-year overall survival (OS) (64.83%) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) (70.20%) than LR (OS: 50.83%, OR: 1.79, p < 0.001; RFS: 34.46%, OR: 5.32, p < 0.001). However, these differences are not as evident in short-term intervals. Older cohorts showed comparable disparities between the outcome of the respective modalities, as did newer cohorts after 2005. This might be due to the similar improvement in survival rates that were observed for both, LT (15-23%) and LR (12-20%) during the last 30 years.

CONCLUSION

LT still outperforms LR in the therapy of HCC in terms of long-term survival rates. Yet, LR outcome has remarkably improved which is of major importance in reference to the well-known limitations that occur in LT.

Outcomes of critically ill patients with liver failure who require mechanical ventilation: A retrospective, single-center study

Background and Aims

Critically ill patients with liver failure have high mortality. Besides the management of organ-specific complications, liver transplantation constitutes a definitive treatment. However, clinicians may hesitate to introduce mechanical ventilation for patients on liver transplantation waitlists because of poor prognosis. This study investigated the outcomes of intensive care and ventilation support therapy effects in patients with liver failure.

Methods

This single-center study retrospectively enrolled 32 consecutive patients with liver failure who were admitted to the intensive care unit from January 2014 to December 2020. The medical records were reviewed and analyzed retrospectively for Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-II. The model for end-stage liver disease scores, 90-day mortality, and survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results

The average patient age was 45.5 ± 20.1 years, and 53% of patients were women. On intensive care unit admission, APACHE-II and model for end-stage liver disease scores were 20 and 28, respectively. Among 13 patients considered for liver transplantation, 4 received transplants. Thirteen patients (40.6%) were intubated and mechanically ventilated in the intensive care unit. The 90-day mortality rate of patients with and without mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit (13, 61.5% vs. 19, 47.4%, p = 0.4905) was similar. APACHE-II score >21 was an independent predictor of mechanical ventilation requirement in patients with liver failure during intensive care unit stay.

Conclusion

Although critically ill patients with liver failure are at risk of multiorgan failure with poor outcomes, mechanical ventilation did not negatively affect the 90-day mortality or performance rates of liver transplantation. Clinicians should consider mechanical ventilation-based life support in critically ill patients with liver failure who are awaiting liver transplantation.

Revising model for end-stage liver disease from calendar-time cross-sections with correction for selection bias

BACKGROUND

Eurotransplant liver transplant candidates are prioritized by Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), a 90-day waitlist survival risk score based on the INR, creatinine and bilirubin. Several studies revised the original MELD score, UNOS-MELD, with transplant candidate data by modelling 90-day waitlist mortality from waitlist registration, censoring patients at delisting or transplantation. This approach ignores biomarkers reported after registration, and ignores informative censoring by transplantation and delisting.

METHODS

We study how MELD revision is affected by revision from calendar-time cross-sections and correction for informative censoring with inverse probability censoring weighting (IPCW). For this, we revised UNOS-MELD on patients with chronic liver cirrhosis on the Eurotransplant waitlist between 2007 and 2019 (n = 13,274) with Cox models with as endpoints 90-day survival (a) from registration and (b) from weekly drawn calendar-time cross-sections. We refer to the revised score from cross-section with IPCW as DynReMELD, and compare DynReMELD to UNOS-MELD and ReMELD, a prior revision of UNOS-MELD for Eurotransplant, in geographical validation.

RESULTS

Revising MELD from calendar-time cross-sections leads to significantly different MELD coefficients. IPCW increases estimates of absolute 90-day waitlist mortality risks by approximately 10 percentage points. DynReMELD has improved discrimination over UNOS-MELD (delta c-index: 0.0040, p < 0.001) and ReMELD (delta c-index: 0.0015, p < 0.01), with differences comparable in magnitude to the addition of an extra biomarker to MELD (delta c-index: ± 0.0030).

CONCLUSION

Correcting for selection bias by transplantation/delisting does not improve discrimination of revised MELD scores, but substantially increases estimated absolute 90-day mortality risks. Revision from cross-section uses waitlist data more efficiently, and improves discrimination compared to revision of MELD exclusively based on information available at listing.

Predictors of portal vein thrombosis after splenectomy in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a commonthsn complication after splenectomy in patients with cirrhosis. However, the predictors of postoperative PVT are not known.

AIM

To investigate the predictors of PVT after splenectomy in patient with cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 45 patients with cirrhosis who underwent splenectomy were consecutively enrolled from January 2017 to December 2018. The incidence of PVT at 1 months, 3 months, and 12 months after splenectomy in patients with cirrhosis was observed. The hematological indicators, biochemical and coagulation parameters, and imaging features were recorded at baseline and at each observation point. The univariable, multivariable, receiver operating characteristic curve and time-dependent curve analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of PVT was 40.0%, 46.6%, and 48.9% at 1 months, 3 months, and 12 months after splenectomy. Multivariable analysis showed that portal vein diameter (PVD) ≥ 14.5 mm and monthsdel‎ end-stage liver disease (MELD) score > 10 were independent predictors of PVT at 1 months, 3 months, and 12 months after splenectomy (P < 0.05). Time-dependent curve showed that the cumulative incidence of PVT was significantly different between patients with MELD score ≤ 10 and > 10 (P < 0.05). In addition, the cumulative incidence of PVT in the PVD ≥ 14.5 mm group was significantly higher than that in the PVD < 14.5 mm group (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Wider PVD and MELD score > 10 were independent predictors of PVT at 1 months, 3 months, and 12 months after splenectomy in patient with cirrhosis.

Influence of donor age on liver transplantation outcomes: A multivariate analysis and comparative study

BACKGROUND

The growing disparity between the rising demand for liver transplantation (LT) and the limited availability of donor organs has prompted a greater reliance on older liver grafts. Traditionally, utilizing livers from elderly donors has been associated with outcomes inferior to those achieved with grafts from younger donors. By accounting for additional risk factors, we hypothesize that the utilization of older liver grafts has a relatively minor impact on both patient survival and graft viability.

AIM

To evaluate the impact of donor age on LT outcomes using multivariate analysis and comparing young and elderly donor groups.

METHODS

In the period from April 2013 to December 2018, 656 adult liver transplants were performed at the University Hospital Merkur. Several multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were developed to independently assess the significance of donor age. Donor age was treated as a continuous variable. The approach involved univariate and multivariate analysis, including variable selection and assessment of interactions and transformations. Additionally, to exemplify the similarity of using young and old donor liver grafts, the group of 87 recipients of elderly donor liver grafts (≥ 75 years) was compared to a group of 124 recipients of young liver grafts (≤ 45 years) from the dataset. Survival rates of the two groups were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was used to test the differences between groups.

RESULTS

Using multivariate Cox analysis, we found no statistical significance in the role of donor age within the constructed models. Even when retained during the entire model development, the donor age's impact on survival remained insignificant and transformations and interactions yielded no substantial effects on survival. Consistent insignificance and low coefficient values suggest that donor age does not impact patient survival in our dataset. Notably, there was no statistical evidence that the five developed models did not adhere to the proportional hazards assumption. When comparing donor age groups, transplantation using elderly grafts showed similar early graft function, similar graft (P = 0.92), and patient survival rates (P = 0.86), and no significant difference in the incidence of postoperative complications.

CONCLUSION

Our center's experience indicates that donor age does not play a significant role in patient survival, with elderly livers performing comparably to younger grafts when accounting for other risk factors.

Correlation between serum markers and transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt prognosis in patients with cirrhotic ascites

BACKGROUND

Individuals with refractory ascites in the context of liver cirrhosis typically face an adverse prognosis. The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is an efficacious intervention, but there is a lack of reliable tools for postoperative prognosis assessment. Previously utilized clinical biochemical markers, such as the serum albumin concentration (Alb), sodium (Na+) concentration, and serum creatinine (Scr), have limited predictive value. Therefore, the quest for novel, specific biomarkers to evaluate the post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites holds significant practical importance.

AIM

To investigate the associations between the Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and serum cystatin C (Cys C) level and post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 75 patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites who underwent TIPS at our institution from August 2019 to August 2021. These patients were followed up regularly for two years, and the death toll was meticulously documented. The patients were allocated into a survival group (n = 45 patients) or a deceased group (n = 30 patients) based on their prognosis status. The clinical data of the two groups were collected, and Child-Pugh scores and MELD scores were calculated for analysis. Spearman correlation analysis was carried out to evaluate the correlation of prognosis with Child-Pugh grade, MELD score, and Cys C level. Additionally, a multiple-factor analysis utilizing the Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent risk factors affecting the post-TIPS prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) ascertained the predictive value of the Cys C concentration, Child-Pugh grade, and MELD score for the prognosis of liver cirrhosis with refractory ascites in post-TIPS patients.

RESULTS

During a 2-year follow-up period, among 75 patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites who underwent TIPS treatment, 30 patients (40.00%) passed away. The deceased cohort exhibited heightened aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, total bilirubin, Scr, prothrombin time, Cys C, international normalized ratio, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores compared to those of the survival cohort, while Alb and Na+ levels were attenuated in the deceased group (P < 0.05). Spearman analysis revealed moderate to high positive correlations between prognosis and Child-Pugh score, MELD score, and Cys C level (r = 0.709, 0.749, 0.671, P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazard model demonstrated that the independent risk factors for post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites were Cys C (HR = 3.802; 95%CI: 1.313-11.015), Child-Pugh (HR = 3.030; 95%CI: 1.858-4.943), and MELD (HR = 1.222; 95%CI: 1.073-1.393) scores. ROC analysis confirmed that, compared to those of the classic prognostic models for Child-Pugh and MELD scores, the predictive accuracy of Cys C for post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites was slightly lower. This analysis yielded sensitivity and specificity values of 83.33% and 82.22%, respectively. The area under the curve value at this juncture was 0.883, with an optimal cutoff value set at 1.95 mg/L.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring the serum Cys C concentration is valuable for assessing the post-TIPS prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis and refractory ascites. Predictive models based on serum Cys C levels, as opposed to Scr levels, are more beneficial for evaluating the condition and prognosis of patients with ascites due to cirrhosis.

The time window for pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt could be extended to 5 days

As recommended by Baveno VII consensus, the utilization of pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (pTIPS) has been considered as standard therapeutic approach for the management of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) associated with cirrhosis., but the 72-h window for pTIPS is too narrow. This study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes between patients who received <72 h pTIPS and 72 h-5d pTIPS. In this study, a total of 63 cirrhotic patients with AVB who underwent pTIPS between October 2016 and December 2021 were included in this retrospective study. They were divided into <72 h group (n = 32) and 72 h-5d group (n = 31), based on the timing of the intervention. The Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that there were no significant differences in the cumulative incidence of death (22.3% ± 7.4% vs. 19.9% ± 7.3%, log-rank P = 0.849), variceal rebleeding (9.7% ± 5.3% vs. 17.8% ± 7.3%, log-rank P = 0.406), OHE (28.5% ± 8.0% vs. 23.9% ± 8.0%, log-rank P = 0.641) and shunt dysfunction (8.6% ± 6.0% vs. 17.4% ± 8.1%, log-rank P = 0.328) between <72 h and 72 h-5d groups. In the total cohort, sarcopenia was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality (HR = 11.268, 95% CI = 1.435-88.462, P = 0.021) and OHE(HR = 12.504, 95% CI = 1.598-97.814, P = 0.016). In conclusion, the clinical outcomes of cirrhotic patients with AVB who underwent pTIPS within the 72-h to 5-day window were found to be comparable to those treated within the 72-h window.

Diagnostic accuracy of serum protein induced by vitamin K absence (PIVKA-II), serum a-fetoprotein and their combination for hepatocellular carcinoma among Caucasian cirrhotic patients with diagnostic or non-diagnostic serum a-fetoprotein levels

AIM

The aim of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of serum biomarkers (AFP/PIVKA-II) and their combination in HCC diagnosis among Caucasian cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

Serum AFP/PIVKA-II levels were evaluated in 218 cirrhotics (163 males, 118 CTP-A, 66 ALBI-I, 111 with varices, 63 with diabetes) with (n = 90) or without (n = 128) HCC. Patients with HCC were categorized to BCLC Stage 0/A (n = 12), B (n = 21), C (n = 48), and D (n = 9).

RESULTS

The two groups were comparable for all baseline parameters except for age, platelets, and diabetes presence. Median levels of AFP (239.1 vs. 4.0 ng/mL) and PIVKA-II (4082.7 vs. 45.8 mAU/mL) were both significantly higher in HCC group compared to controls (p < 0.001). AUROC and cutoff value for HCC diagnosis were 88%/12.35 ng/mL (AFP) and 84.4%/677.13 mAU/mL (PIVKA-II), whereas their combination showed better diagnostic accuracy (AUROC = 90.2%). The diagnostic accuracy of each biomarker separately was moderate or good in BCLC-0/A/B and was excellent only for BCLC-C patients (AFP: AUROC = 94.3%, cutoff = 12.35 ng/mL and PIVKA-II: 91.3%, 253.51 mAU/mL) whereas their combination presented quite acceptable results in BCLC-B (AUROC = 92.4%) and BCLC-C (AUROC = 95.7%). Excluding HCC patients with high AFP (above 400 ng/mL), the diagnostic accuracy of each biomarker separately and their combination was moderate/good in all groups, except for their combination in BCLC-C (AUROC = 90.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Each biomarker separately showed acceptable accuracy for detecting HCC in cirrhotic patients and excellent for those in BCLC-C stage. The combination of the biomarkers presented excellent results in BCLC-B/C patients. The diagnostic accuracy of PIVKA-II and the combination of the two biomarkers in patients expressing low/non-diagnostic AFP levels was good in BCLC-B and excellent in BCLC-C patients.

Outcomes of Living Donor Liver Transplantation Compared with Deceased Donor Liver Transplantation

Improved surgical techniques and revolutionary immunosuppressive agents have enhanced the long-term outcomes for liver transplantation, with more patients seeking the benefits of liver transplantation, and demand is high. In this review, we hope to delineate where the current data supporting favorable outcomes in using live donation to expand the donor pool compared with the outcomes seen in deceased donor liver transplants. Advances in surgery, transplant and center comfort has made live donor transplantation an asset with favorable patient outcomes in comparison to decease donor data.

Fragility spinal fractures among cirrhotic liver transplant candidates in Croatia

INTRODUCTION

Existing data on fragility spinal fractures prevalence in liver transplant candidates are scarce and inconsistent. This may be due to other comorbidities, besides hepatic osteodystrophy (HO), that contribute to bone loss and fragility fracture prevalence in chronic liver disease (CLD).

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of spinal thoracic and lumbar fragility fractures among cirrhotic, non-chronic kidney disease (CKD), non-diabetic liver transplant candidates and to explore their relationship with clinical characteristics, laboratory markers and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) results.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cross-sectional observational study was conducted at Merkur University Hospital, Croatia, between February 2019 and May 2023. Adult patients with liver cirrhosis referred for liver transplantation were included. Patients with acute infection, CKD, diabetes mellitus, malignancies, inflammatory bone diseases and those on corticosteroid or antiresorptive therapy were excluded. Clinical, laboratory and radiological assessment was carried out and patients were accordingly allocated into non-fractured and fractured group for the purpose of statistical analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 90 patients were included in the study. There was 123 fractures, 87 (70.7 %) in the thoracic and 36 (29.3 %) in the lumbar region. Eighty-nine (72.4 %) fractures were grade 1, 31 (25.2 %) were grade 2 and 3 (2.4 %) were grade 3. Patients in the fractured group were significantly older (p < 0.001). No significant differences between fractured and non-fractured group according to laboratory and DXA parameters were noted. Subgroup with lumbar fractures had significantly lower bone mineral density values at L1-L4 region. Statistically significant negative correlation between bone specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP) and hip total BMD (rho = -0.414, p < 0.001) and spine total BMD (rho = -0.258, p = 0.014) values was found.

CONCLUSION

Present study confirmed detrimental impact of CLD and HO on bone strength. DXA measurement correlated with the presence of lumbar fragility fractures. A combination of standard X-ray imaging and DXA is needed for adequate bone evaluation in pretransplant period and BALP could be useful for detecting HO in CLD. Searching for other risk factors and implementing bone turnover markers and additional imaging techniques for bone loss evaluation in liver transplant candidates is needed.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Narrative Review and A Glimpse into The Future

Liver transplantation (LT) is a highly effective treatment for carefully selected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this review, we explored the development of LT selection criteria and organ allocation policies, comparing original data to underscore their historical progression into the intricate task of quantitatively estimating pre- and post-LT survivals. We emphasized the role of biomarkers such as serum alpha-fetoprotein, Des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin, circulating tumor cells, and circulating tumor DNA in predicting patient outcomes. Additionally, we examined the transplant-associated survival benefits and the difficulties in accurately calculating these benefits. We also reviewed recent advancements in targeted therapy and checkpoint inhibitors for advanced, inoperable HCC and projected their integration into LT for HCC. We further discussed the growing use of living donor liver transplants in the United States and compared its outcomes with those of deceased donor liver transplants. Furthermore, we examined the progress in machine perfusion techniques, which have shown potential in improving patient outcomes and enlarging the donor pool. These advancements present opportunities to enhance LT patient survivals, refine selection criteria, establish new priority metrics, develop innovative bridging and downstaging strategies, and formulate redesigned LT strategies for HCC treatments.

Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) With Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) Functional Treatment Planning in Patients With Advanced Hepatic Cirrhosis

Purpose

We report on the feasibility and outcomes of liver stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) functional treatment planning in patients with Child-Pugh (CP) B/C cirrhosis.

Methods and Materials

Liver SPECT with 99mTc-sulfur colloid was coregistered to treatment planning computed tomography (CT) for the guided avoidance of functional hepatic parenchyma during SBRT. Functional liver volumes (FLVs) obtained from SPECT were compared with anatomic liver volumes defined on the planning CT. Radiation dose constraints were adapted exclusively to FLV. Local control, toxicity, and survival were reported with at least 6 months of radiographic follow-up. Pre- and posttransplant outcomes were analyzed in a subset of patients who completed SBRT as a bridge to liver transplant. Model of End-Stage Liver Disease was used to score hepatic function before and after SBRT completion.

Results

With a median follow-up of 32 months, 45 patients (58 lesions) with HCC and CP-B/C cirrhosis received SBRT to a median dose of 45 Gy (3-5 fractions). FLV loss (34%, P < .001) was observed in all patients, and the functional and anatomic liver volumes matched well in a control group of noncirrhotic/non-HCC patients. Despite marked functional parenchyma retraction, the amount of FLV on SPECT exposed to the threshold irradiation was significantly less than the CT liver volumes (P < .001) because of the optimized beam placement during dosimetry planning. Twenty-three patients (51%) successfully completed orthotopic liver transplant, with a median time to transplant of 9.2 months. With 91% in-field local control, the overall 2-year survival was 65% (90% after the orthotopic liver transplant), with no incidence of radiation-induced liver disease observed within 3 to 4 months or accelerated CP class migration from B to C within the first 6 months post-SBRT. Mean Model of End-Stage Liver Disease-Na score was not significantly elevated at 3-month intervals after SBRT completion.

Conclusions

Functional treatment planning with 99mTc sulfur colloid SPECT/CT allows identification and avoidance of functional hepatic parenchyma in patients with CP-B/C cirrhosis, leading to low toxicity and satisfactory transplant outcomes.

Radiation Major Hepatectomy Using Ablative Dose Yttrium-90 Radioembolization in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma 5 cm or Larger

PURPOSE

To evaluate the safety and effectiveness of ablative radioembolization for large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) while preserving a small future liver remnant (FLR).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Twenty-five patients with large HCC of ≥5 cm requiring treatment for >60% of the total liver volume and having well-preserved liver function were treated with ablative glass microsphere radioembolization at a single institution from January 2017 to December 2021. Radioembolization was performed with a mean absorbed dose of >150 Gy, and the FLR per nontumor liver volume (NTLV) was set at >30%. Changes in liver function, adverse events, duration of response (DoR) in a treated area, time-to-progression (TTP), and overall survival (OS) were retrospectively investigated.

RESULTS

The largest tumor diameter and planned dose per treated volume were 11.4 cm ± 3.9 and 242.3 Gy ± 63.6 (169.4 Gy ± 45.9 per whole liver volume), respectively. All patients remained at Child-Pugh Class A for 90 days. No patient experienced Grade 3‒4 hyperbilirubinemia or new ascites. One patient (lung dose, 27.8 Gy) developed radiation pneumonitis requiring transient steroid treatment. According to the posttreatment dosimetry, the tumorous and nontumorous liver absorbed doses were 418.8 Gy ± 227.4 and 69.0 Gy ± 32.1, respectively. The median DoR in a treated area and TTP were 22.0 and 17.1 months, respectively. The 5-year OS rate was 83.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Ablative radioembolization of large HCC of ≥5 cm can be performed safely and effectively in patients with preserved liver function when FLR/NTLV exceeds 30%.

Clinical characteristics and prognosis of non-APAP drug-induced acute liver failure: a large multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is growing recognition of natural history, complications, and outcomes of patients who develop non-acetaminophen (APAP) drug-induced acute liver failure (ALF). To clarify high-risk factors and develop a nomogram model to predict transplant-free survival (TFS) in patients with non-APAP drug-induced ALF.

METHODS

Patients with non-APAP drug-induced ALF from 5 participating centers were retrospectively analyzed. The primary endpoint was 21-day TFS. Total sample size was 482 patients.

RESULTS

Regarding causative agents, the most common implicated drugs were herbal and dietary supplements (HDS) (57.0%). The hepatocellular type (R ≥ 5) was the main liver injury pattern (69.0%). International normalized ratio, hepatic encephalopathy grades, the use of vasopressor, N-acetylcysteine, or artificial liver support system were associated with TFS and incorporated to construct a nomogram model (drug-induced acute liver failure-5, DIALF-5). The AUROC of DIALF-5 for 7-day, 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day TFS in the internal cohort were 0.886, 0.915, 0.920, and 0.912, respectively. Moreover, the AUROC of DIALF-5 for 21-day TFS had the highest AUROC, which was significantly higher than 0.725 of MELD and 0.519 of KCC (p < 0.05), numerically higher than 0.905 of ALFSG-PI but without statistical difference (p > 0.05). These results were successfully validated in the external cohort (147 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on easily identifiable clinical data, the novel DIALF-5 model was developed to predict transplant-free survival in non-APAP drug-induced ALF, which was superior to KCC, MELD and had a similar prediction performance to ALFSG-PI but is more convenient, which can directly calculate TFS at multiple time points.

Resection Versus Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: How to Offer the Best Modality

Liver resection and liver transplantation are the mainstay of treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Patient comorbidities, tumor resectability, and perioperative morbidity and mortality risk, specifically of post-hepatectomy liver failure, are determining factors when deciding between liver resection and liver transplantation in patients who do not have an obvious contraindication to either treatment. Liver resection is preferred in patients without cirrhosis, and it may be a reasonable choice in patient with cirrhosis but preserved liver function and no portal hypertension if the size and function of the future liver remnant are appropriate, especially if organ availability is scarce.

MELD 3.0 in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

The MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) 3.0 score was developed to replace the MELD-Na score that is currently used to prioritize liver allocation for cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation in the United States. The MELD 3.0 calculator includes new inputs from patient sex and serum albumin levels and has new weights for serum sodium, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine levels. It is expected that use of MELD 3.0 scores will reduce overall waitlist mortality modestly and improve access for female liver transplant candidates. The utility of MELD 3.0 and PELDcre (pediatric end-stage liver disease, creatinine) scores for risk stratification in cirrhotic patients undergoing major abdominal surgery, placement of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt, and other interventions requires further study. This article reviews the background of the MELD score and the rationale to create MELD 3.0 as well as potential implications of using this newer risk stratification tool in clinical practice.

The Contemporary Role of Speckle Tracking Echocardiography in Cirrhotic Cardiomyopathy

Cirrhotic cardiomyopathy (CCM) is characterized by elevated cardiac output at rest, an inability to further increase contractility under stress, and diastolic dysfunction. The diagnosis of CCM is crucial as it can lead to complications during liver transplantation. However, its recognition poses challenges with conventional echocardiography techniques. Speckle tracking echocardiography (STE), particularly global longitudinal strain (GLS), is a novel index that enhances the diagnostic efficacy of echocardiography for both ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathies. GLS proves more sensitive in identifying early systolic dysfunction and is also influenced by advanced diastolic dysfunction. Consequently, there is an expanding scope for GLS utilization in cirrhotic cases, with newly updated diagnostic criteria for CCM incorporating GLS. Specifically, systolic dysfunction is now defined as either a left ventricular ejection fraction below 50% or an absolute GLS below 18%. However, conflicting data on GLS alterations in liver cirrhosis patients persist, as many individuals with advanced disease and a poor prognosis exhibit a hyperdynamic state with preserved or increased GLS. Consequently, the presence of CCM, according to the updated criteria, does not exhibit a significant association-in the majority of studies-with the severity of liver disease and prognosis. Furthermore, information on other indices measured with STE, such as left atrial and right ventricular strain, is promising but currently limited. This review aims to offer a critical assessment of the existing evidence concerning the application of STE in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Mac-2-Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer to Albumin Ratio Predicts Bacterial Infections in Cirrhotic Patients

INTRODUCTION

Mac-2-binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is a novel biomarker for liver fibrosis, but little is known about its role in cirrhosis-associated clinical outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the predictive role of M2BPGi in cirrhosis-associated complications.

METHODS

One hundred and forty-nine cirrhotic patients were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were followed up for 1 year, and cirrhosis-associated clinical events were recorded. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used to establish the values of the predictive models for cirrhotic outcomes, and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify predictors of clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Sixty (40.3%) patients experienced cirrhosis-associated clinical events and had higher M2BPGi levels compared to those without events (8.7 vs. 5.1 cutoff index, p < 0.001). The most common cirrhosis-associated complications were bacterial infections (24.2%). On ROC analysis, M2BPGi to albumin ratio (M2BPGi/albumin) had comparable discriminant abilities for all cirrhosis-associated events (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.74) compared with M2BPGi, Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease, albumin-bilirubin scores, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and was superior to M2BPGi alone for all bacterial infectious events (AUC = 0.80). Cox regression analysis revealed that the M2BPGi/albumin, but not M2BPGi alone, independently predicted all cirrhosis-associated events (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.34, p = 0.038) and all bacterial infectious events (HR = 1.51, p = 0.011) within 1 year. However, M2BPGi/albumin did not predict other cirrhotic complications and transplant-free survival.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

M2BPGi/albumin might serve as a potential prognostic indicator for patients with cirrhosis, particularly for predicting bacterial infections.

Factors and a model to predict three-month mortality in patients with acute fatty liver of pregnancy from two medical centers

BACKGROUND

Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening complication. Lacking of prognostic factors and models renders prediction of outcomes difficult. This study aims to explore factors and develop a prognostic model to predict three-month mortality of AFLP.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 78 consecutive patients fulfilling both clinical and laboratory criteria and Swansea criteria for diagnosis of AFLP. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses were used to identify predictive factors of mortality. Predictive efficacy of prognostic index for AFLP (PI-AFLP) was compared with the other four liver disease models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

AFLP-related three-month mortality of two medical centers was 14.10% (11/78). International normalised ratio (INR, hazard ratio [HR] = 3.446; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.324-8.970), total bilirubin (TBIL, HR = 1.005; 95% CI, 1.000-1.010), creatine (Scr, HR = 1.007; 95% CI, 1.001-1.013), low platelet (PLT, HR = 0.964; 95% CI, 0.931-0.997) at 72 h postpartum were confirmed as significant predictors of mortality. Artificial liver support (ALS, HR = 0.123; 95% CI, 0.012-1.254) was confirmed as an effective measure to improve severe patients' prognosis. Predictive accuracy of PI-AFLP was 0.874. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of liver disease models for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD) and pregnancy-specific liver disease (PSLD) were 0.781, 0.774, 0.744 and 0.643, respectively.

CONCLUSION

TBIL, INR, Scr and PLT at 72 h postpartum are significant predictors of three-month mortality in AFLP patients. ALS is an effective measure to improve severe patients' prognosis. PI-AFLP calculated by TBIL, INR, Scr, PLT and ALS was a sensitive and specific model to predict mortality of AFLP.