A framework for debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change

Building evolutionary resilience for conserving biodiversity under climate change

Evolution occurs rapidly and is an ongoing process in our environments. Evolutionary principles need to be built into conservation efforts, particularly given the stressful conditions organisms are increasingly likely to experience because of climate change and ongoing habitat fragmentation. The concept of evolutionary resilience is a way of emphasizing evolutionary processes in conservation and landscape planning. From an evolutionary perspective, landscapes need to allow in situ selection and capture high levels of genetic variation essential for responding to the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We summarize ideas that need to be considered in planning for evolutionary resilience and suggest how they might be incorporated into policy and management to ensure that resilience is maintained in the face of environmental degradation.

Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change

Managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization, assisted migration) is one of the more controversial proposals to emerge in the ecological community in recent years. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR) has divided many ecologists and conservationists, mostly because of concerns about the potential invasion risk of the relocated species in their new environments. While this is indeed an important consideration in any evaluation of MR, moving species across the landscape in response to predicted climate shifts also raises a number of larger and important ethical and policy challenges that need to be addressed. These include evaluating the implications of a more aggressive approach to species conservation, assessing MR as a broader ecological policy and philosophy that departs from longstanding scientific and management goals focused on preserving ecological integrity, and considering MR within a more comprehensive ethical and policy response to climate change. Given the complexity and novelty of many of the issues at stake in the MR debate, a more dynamic and pragmatic approach to ethical analysis and debate is needed to help ecologists, conservationists, and environmental decision makers come to grips with MR and the emerging ethical challenges of ecological policy and management under global environmental change.

Is the climate right for pleistocene rewilding? Using species distribution models to extrapolate climatic suitability for mammals across continents

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial "Pleistocene rewilding" proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion) was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of organisms in response to climate change.

Evolutionary response of landraces to climate change in centers of crop diversity

Landraces cultivated in centers of crop diversity result from past and contemporary patterns of natural and farmer-mediated evolutionary forces. Successful in situ conservation of crop genetic resources depends on continuity of these evolutionary processes. Climate change is projected to affect agricultural production, yet analyses of impacts on in situ conservation of crop genetic diversity and farmers who conserve it have been absent. How will crop landraces respond to alterations in climate? We review the roles that phenotypic plasticity, evolution, and gene flow might play in sustaining production, although we might expect erosion of genetic diversity if landrace populations or entire races lose productivity. For example, highland maize landraces in southern Mexico do not express the plasticity necessary to sustain productivity under climate change, but may evolve in response to altered conditions. The outcome for any given crop in a given region will depend on the distribution of genetic variation that affects fitness and patterns of climate change. Understanding patterns of neutral and adaptive diversity from the population to the landscape scale is essential to clarify how landraces conserved in situ will continue to evolve and how to minimize genetic erosion of this essential natural resource.

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network

Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions, but downscaling is difficult in complex terrains given diverse microclimates and mediation of stream heat budgets by local conditions. We compiled a stream temperature database (n = 780) for a 2500-km river network in central Idaho to assess possible trends in summer temperatures and thermal habitat for two native salmonid species from 1993 to 2006. New spatial statistical models that account for network topology were parameterized with these data and explained 93% and 86% of the variation in mean stream temperatures and maximas, respectively. During our study period, basin average mean stream temperatures increased by 0.38 degrees C (0.27 degrees C/decade), and maximas increased by 0.48 degrees C (0.34 degrees C/decade), primarily due to long-term (30-50 year) trends in air temperatures and stream flows. Radiation increases from wildfires accounted for 9% of basin-scale temperature increases, despite burning 14% of the basin. Within wildfire perimeters, however, stream temperature increases were 2-3 times greater than basin averages, and radiation gains accounted for 50% of warming. Thermal habitat for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was minimally affected by temperature increases, except for small shifts towards higher elevations. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), in contrast, were estimated to have lost 11-20% (8-16%/decade) of the headwater stream lengths that were cold enough for spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses occurring in the coldest habitats. Our results suggest that a warming climate has begun to affect thermal conditions in streams and that impacts to biota will be specific to both species and context. Where species are at risk, conservation actions should be guided based on considerations of restoration opportunity and future climatic effects. To refine predictions based on thermal effects, more work is needed to understand mechanisms associated with biological responses, climate effects on other habitat features, and habitat configurations that confer population resilience.

Use of land facets to plan for climate change: conserving the arenas, not the actors

Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human-caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets-recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes-and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse-filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context-sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k-means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land-facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data-rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.

Projections of suitable habitat for rare species under global warming scenarios

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Modeling the contemporary and future climate niche for rare plants is a major hurdle in conservation, yet such projections are necessary to prevent extinctions that may result from climate change. •

METHODS

We used recently developed spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats of three rare, endangered spruces of Mexico and a spruce of the southwestern USA. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. •

KEY RESULTS

Our procedures predicted present occurrence perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, the ranges of all taxa progressively decreased, to the point of transient disappearance for one species in the decade 2060 but reappearance in 2090. Contrary to intuition, habitat did not develop to the north for any of the Mexican taxa; rather, climate niches for two taxa re-materialized several hundred kilometers southward in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The climate niche for a third Mexican taxon shrank drastically, and its two mitotypes responded differently, one of the first demonstrations of the importance of intraspecific genetic variation in climate niches. The climate niche of the U.S. species shrank northward and upward in elevation. •

CONCLUSION

The results are important for conservation of these species and are of general significance for conservation by assisted colonization. We conclude that our procedures for producing models and projecting the climate niches of Mexican spruces provide a way for handling other rare plants, which constitute the great bulk of the world's endangered and most vulnerable flora.

Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species

BACKGROUND

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.

The value of species and the ethical foundations of assisted colonization

Discourse around assisted colonization focuses on the ecological risks, costs, and uncertainties associated with the practice, as well as on its technical feasibility and alternative approaches to it. Nevertheless, the ethical underpinnings of the case for assisted colonization are claims about the value of species. A complete discussion of assisted colonization needs to include assessment of these claims. For each type of value that species are thought to possess it is necessary to determine whether it is plausible that species possess the type of value and, if so, to what extent their possessing it justifies assisted colonization. I conducted such an assessment for each of the predominant types of value ascribed to species: ecological, instrumental (including option value), existence, and intrinsic value (including interest-based, objective, and valuer-dependent intrinsic value). The vast majority of species, including several that have been proposed as candidates for assisted colonization, have much less value than is often presumed. Moreover, with respect to some types of value, assisted colonization would not fully preserve the value of the target species even if it were to keep the target species in existence. Therefore, the case for assisted colonization is significantly weaker and more qualified than its advocates often suppose. There may be exceptional species for which assisted colonization is well justified--and for this reason, case-by-case assessment is necessary--but in general the burden of justification generated by the ecological risks associated with assisted colonization is not met by the value potentially preserved by assisted colonization. This suggests that assisted colonization ought to have, at most, a very minor role in the portfolio of ecosystem management practices, even as it pertains to species conservation under conditions of rapid climate change.

Geography and recovery under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) defines an endangered species as one "at risk of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range." The prevailing interpretation of this phrase, which focuses exclusively on the overall viability of listed species without regard to their geographic distribution, has led to development of listing and recovery criteria with fundamental conceptual, legal, and practical shortcomings. The ESA's concept of endangerment is broader than the biological concept of extinction risk in that the "esthetic, ecological, educational, historical, recreational, and scientific" values provided by species are not necessarily furthered by a species mere existence, but rather by a species presence across much of its former range. The concept of "significant portion of range" thus implies an additional geographic component to recovery that may enhance viability, but also offers independent benefits that Congress intended the act to achieve. Although the ESA differs from other major endangered-species protection laws because it acknowledges the distinct contribution of geography to recovery, it resembles the "representation, resiliency, and redundancy" conservation-planning framework commonly referenced in recovery plans. To address representation, listing and recovery standards should consider not only what proportion of its former range a species inhabits, but the types of habitats a species occupies and the ecological role it plays there. Recovery planning for formerly widely distributed species (e.g., the gray wolf [Canis lupus]) exemplifies how the geographic component implicit in the ESA's definition of endangerment should be considered in determining recovery goals through identification of ecologically significant types or niche variation within the extent of listed species, subspecies, or "distinct population segments." By linking listing and recovery standards to niche and ecosystem concepts, the concept of ecologically significant type offers a scientific framework that promotes more coherent dialogue concerning the societal decisions surrounding recovery of endangered species.

Matching the multiple scales of conservation with the multiple scales of climate change

To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the Western hemisphere

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.

Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important "no regrets" strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.

Niches, models, and climate change: assessing the assumptions and uncertainties

As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some "hotspots" of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option.

Tropical botanical gardens: at the in situ ecosystem management frontier

Tropical botanical gardens (TBGs) should have a leading role in in situ conservation by directly promoting several initiatives, including the reintroduction of important or valuable native species, focused habitat restoration, 'assisted migration' of species that are vulnerable to climate change, and creative local collaboration with governments, NGOs and indigenous peoples. Compared with temperate gardens, TBGs face heightened challenges for ex situ conservation, including greater absolute amounts of biodiversity, need for resource mobilization, risk of introducing invasive species and potential genetic introgression within living collections. Meanwhile, the ecosystems surrounding TBGs have undergone widespread and rapid conversion. Here, we provide several illustrations of the effectiveness of TBGs in achieving their mission of preserving tropical biodiversity at the frontier of in situ ecosystem management.

A review of climate-change adaptation strategies for wildlife management and biodiversity conservation

The scientific literature contains numerous descriptions of observed and potential effects of global climate change on species and ecosystems. In response to anticipated effects of climate change, conservation organizations and government agencies are developing "adaptation strategies" to facilitate the adjustment of human society and ecological systems to altered climate regimes. We reviewed the literature and climate-change adaptation plans that have been developed in United States, Canada, England, México, and South Africa and found 16 general adaptation strategies that relate directly to the conservation of biological diversity. These strategies can be grouped into four broad categories: land and water protection and management; direct species management; monitoring and planning; and law and policy. Tools for implementing these strategies are similar or identical to those already in use by conservationists worldwide (land and water conservation, ecological restoration, agrienvironment schemes, species translocation, captive propagation, monitoring, natural resource planning, and legislation/regulation). Although our review indicates natural resource managers already have many tools that can be used to address climate-change effects, managers will likely need to apply these tools in novel and innovative ways to meet the unprecedented challenges posed by climate change.

Can gene flow have negative demographic consequences? Mixed evidence from stream threespine stickleback

Dispersal and gene flow can have both positive and negative effects on population size, but little empirical support from nature exists for the negative effects. We test for such effects in a stream population of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) that is subject to high gene flow from a lake and is thus maladapted to stream conditions. In this system, maladaptation increases with distance along the stream, and this increase is associated with decreasing population densities until stickleback are no longer present (2.5 km from the lake). We conducted field experiments to inform whether this association might reflect a negative role for gene flow in constraining population size and therefore causing a local range limit. We specifically tested predictions deriving from theory: peripheral populations should show partial local adaptation, be under strong selection and not simply be maintained by dispersal. First, a transplant experiment suggested a weak home-site advantage in the peripheral population. Second, a mark-recapture study showed directional selection for a stream-adapted phenotype in 1 of 2 years. Third, another mark-recapture experiment showed that dispersal is limited to the point that positive demographic effects of dispersal are probably minimal. We conclude that, although gene flow does constrain morphological maladaptation in the outlet stream population, the evidence for its contribution to population size and range limits is mixed. We discuss the implications of our work for the study of factors influencing the evolution of species' ranges.

Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation

Managed relocation (MR) has rapidly emerged as a potential intervention strategy in the toolbox of biodiversity management under climate change. Previous authors have suggested that MR (also referred to as assisted colonization, assisted migration, or assisted translocation) could be a last-alternative option after interrogating a linear decision tree. We argue that numerous interacting and value-laden considerations demand a more inclusive strategy for evaluating MR. The pace of modern climate change demands decision making with imperfect information, and tools that elucidate this uncertainty and integrate scientific information and social values are urgently needed. We present a heuristic tool that incorporates both ecological and social criteria in a multidimensional decision-making framework. For visualization purposes, we collapse these criteria into 4 classes that can be depicted in graphical 2-D space. This framework offers a pragmatic approach for summarizing key dimensions of MR: capturing uncertainty in the evaluation criteria, creating transparency in the evaluation process, and recognizing the inherent tradeoffs that different stakeholders bring to evaluation of MR and its alternatives.

One hundred questions of importance to the conservation of global biological diversity

We identified 100 scientific questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on conservation practice and policy. Representatives from 21 international organizations, regional sections and working groups of the Society for Conservation Biology, and 12 academics, from all continents except Antarctica, compiled 2291 questions of relevance to conservation of biological diversity worldwide. The questions were gathered from 761 individuals through workshops, email requests, and discussions. Voting by email to short-list questions, followed by a 2-day workshop, was used to derive the final list of 100 questions. Most of the final questions were derived through a process of modification and combination as the workshop progressed. The questions are divided into 12 sections: ecosystem functions and services, climate change, technological change, protected areas, ecosystem management and restoration, terrestrial ecosystems, marine ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems, species management, organizational systems and processes, societal context and change, and impacts of conservation interventions. We anticipate that these questions will help identify new directions for researchers and assist funders in directing funds.

The role of botanical gardens in climate change research

Botanical gardens have a unique set of resources that allows them to host important climate change research projects not easily undertaken elsewhere. These resources include controlled growing conditions, living collections with broad taxonomic representation, meticulous record-keeping, networks spanning wide geographic areas, and knowledgeable staff. Indeed, botanical gardens have already contributed significantly to our understanding of biological responses to climate change, particularly the effects of temperature on the timing of flowering and leaf-out. They have also made significant contributions to the understanding of the relationships among climate, physiology, and anatomy. Gardens are finding new uses for traditional research tools such as herbarium specimens and historical photographs, which are increasingly being used to obtain information on past plant behavior. Additional work on invasive species and comparative studies of responses to climatic variation are providing insights on important ecological, evolutionary, and management questions. With their large collections of plant species from throughout the world and excellent herbaria, botanical gardens are well positioned to expand their current activities to continue to provide leadership in climate change research and education.

The response of two butterfly species to climatic variation at the edge of their range and the implications for poleward range shifts

To predict changes in species' distributions due to climate change we must understand populations at the poleward edge of species' ranges. Ecologists generally expect range shifts under climate change caused by the expansion of edge populations as peripheral conditions increasingly resemble the range core. We tested whether peripheral populations of two contrasting butterflies, a small-bodied specialist (Erynnis propertius) and a large-bodied generalist (Papilio zelicaon), respond favorably to warmer conditions. Performance of populations related to climate was evaluated in seven peripheral populations spanning 1.2 degrees latitude (160 km) using: (1) population density surveys, an indirect measure of site suitability; and (2) organismal fitness in translocation experiments. There was evidence that population density increased with temperature for P. zelicaon whose population density declined with latitude in 1 of 3 sample years. On the other hand, E. propertius showed a positive relationship of population density with latitude, apparently unrelated to climate or measured habitat variables. Translocation experiments showed increased larval production at increased temperatures for both species, and in P. zelicaon, larval production also increased under drier conditions. These findings suggest that both species may increase at their range edge with warming but the preference for core-like conditions may be stronger in P. zelicaon. Further, populations of E. propertius at the range boundary may be large enough to act as sources of colonists for range expansions, but range expansion in this species may be prevented by a lack of available host plants further north. In total, the species appear to respond differently to climate and other factors that vary latitudinally, factors that will likely affect poleward expansion.