Population health and burden of disease profile of Iran among 20 countries in the region: from Afghanistan to Qatar and Lebanon

Self-perceived health and functional status of older people: Telephone-based lifestyle survey of older adults in Tehran province

Background: The prevalence study of health conditions can help policy makers to document base policymaking. This study aimed to reveal the health status, including the prevalence of geriatric syndrome health conditions such as activity of daily livings, pain, and physical and mental health of older adults in Tehran province.

Methods: This cross-sectional study was a telephone survey with older people ≥60 years old using a systematic random sampling of telephone numbers in Tehran province. The Persian version of the Katz’ activity of daily living (ADL) and the Lawton’s instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) questionnaires were used to evaluate the functional status. Pain, history of chronic diseases, continence, hospital admission, sensory problems, and self-perceived health (SPH) were asked by trained nurses or gerontologists thorough telephone interviews.

Results: In this study, 1251 older adults with the mean age of 67.03±7.51 years have been recruited. About 64.50% (95% CI: 64.4-64.6) of them were totally independent according to ADL (female=60.02% and male=68.50%), and about 40.50% (95% CI: 40.4-40.5) were independent based on IADL domains (female=39.41% and male=41.80). The dependency rates in ADL increased with the aging of population. Joint pain was the most prevalent type of pains and near to 26.00% (95% CI: 64.4-64.6) of the participants suffered moderate joint pains. About 71.5% (95% CI: 71.4-71.5) of the participants were urinary continent (female=67.66% and male=76.06%), and 91.9% (95% CI: 91.9-92.0) had bowel control (female=91.47% and male=92.94%) and the prevalence of incontinence increased by advancing age. Only 26.70% (95% CI: 26.6-26.8) of the participants reported excellent and good levels of perceived health status (female=21.98% and male=31.48%) and about 26.2% (95% CI: 26.1-26.2) of them reported some degree of visual impairment.

Conclusion: The results of the present study can provide a good view about the health profile of older adults, including pain, functional status, sphincter control, chronic diseases, sensory status, and SPH. Future studies should prioritize SPH as an important predictor of mortality rates.

Policy analysis of socio-cultural determinants of salt, sugar and fat consumption in Iran

Background

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the first reason for death worldwide, in which poor diet is the leading risk factor. It is estimated that 20% of all death is related to food. The Unhealthy diet includes many foods with excessive salt, sugar and fat. This paper reports a national study on the socio-cultural determinants affecting salt, sugar and fat consumption in Iran.

Methods

This is a qualitative study. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 30 various purposefully identified key stakeholders to collect data from December 2018 until August 2019 in Iran.

Results

We identified socio-cultural determents of salt, fat and sugar consumption as follows: Inadequate structure of traditional medicine and people’s desire for traditional foods, low health literacy, the global trend of nutritional transition and its impact on Iranian society, The progressive decline of people’s trust in NGOs, and Inappropriate media management. Worse still, the global trend of nutritional transition and people’s tendency towards fast foods, unhealthy diet and junk foods, partially due to establishing children’s taste mainly with salty, high-fat and sweet foods, has jeopardized their desire to eat healthily during adulthood.

Conclusion

Reducing salt, fat and sugar consumption is problematic in Iran, mainly due to multi-dimensional socio-cultural determinants. In line with sustainable development goal (SDG) 3.4 to reduce 30% of premature death due to NCDs and related risk factors by 2030 in Iran, various stakeholders from multiple sectors need to initiate coherent series of interventions to alter people’s approach to select food so that they may reduce the consumption of foods with excessive salt, fat and sugar.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40795-022-00518-7.

Performance evaluation and ranking of regional primary health care and public health Systems in Iran

BACKGROUND

The present study has been undertaken with the aim to evaluate performance and ranking of various universities of medical sciences that are responsible for providing public health services and primary health care in Iran.

METHODS

Four models; Weighted Factor Analysis (WFA), Equal Weighting (EW), Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) have been applied for evaluating the performance of universities of medical sciences. This study was commenced based on the statistical reports of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME), census data from the Statistical Center of Iran, indicators of Vital Statistics, results of Multiple Indicator of Demographic and Health Survey 2010, and results of the National Survey of Risk Factors of non-communicable diseases.

RESULTS

The average performance scores in WFA, EW, SFA, and DEA methods for the universities were 0.611, 0.663, 0.736 and 0.838, respectively. In all 4 models, the performance scores of universities were different (range from 0.56-1, 0.53-1, 0.73-1 and 0.83-1 in WFA, EW, SFA and DEA models, respectively). Gilan and Rafsanjan universities with the average ranking score of 4.75 and 41 had the highest and lowest rank among universities, respectively. The universities of Gilan, Ardabil and Bojnourd in all four models had the highest performance among the top 15 universities, while the universities of Rafsanjan, Ahvaz, Kerman and Jiroft showed poor performance in all models.

CONCLUSIONS

The average performance scores have varied based on different measurement methods, so judging the performance of universities based solely on the results of a model can be misleading. In all models, the performance of universities has been different, which indicates the need for planning to balance the performance improvement of universities based on learning from the experiences of well-performing universities.

Agreement between laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based Framingham risk score in Southern Iran

The Framingham 10-year cardiovascular disease risk is measured by laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models. This study aimed to determine the agreement between these two models in a large population in Southern Iran. In this study, the baseline data of 8138 individuals participated in the Pars cohort study were used. The participants had no history of cardiovascular disease or stroke. For the laboratory-based risk model, scores were determined based on age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and treatment status, total cholesterol, and High-Density Lipoprotein. For the non-laboratory-based risk model, scores were determined based on age, sex, current smoking, diabetes, SBP and treatment status, and Body Mass Index. The agreement between these two models was determined by Bland Altman plots for agreement between the scores and kappa statistic for agreement across the risk groups. Bland Altman plots showed that the limits of agreement were reasonable for females < 60 years old (95% CI: −2.27–4.61%), but of concern for those ≥ 60 years old (95% CI: −3.45–9.67%), males < 60 years old (95% CI: −2.05–8.91%), and males ≥ 60 years old (95% CI: −3.01–15.23%). The limits of agreement were wider for males ≥ 60 years old in comparison to other age groups. According to the risk groups, the agreement was better in females than in males, which was moderate for females < 60 years old (kappa = 0.57) and those ≥ 60 years old (kappa = 0.51). The agreement was fair for the males < 60 years old (kappa = 0.39) and slight for those ≥ 60 years old (Kappa = 0.14). The results showed that in overall participants, the agreement between the two risk scores was moderate according to risk grouping. Therefore, our results suggest that the non-laboratory-based risk model can be used in resource-limited settings where individuals cannot afford laboratory tests and extensive laboratories are not available.

Systematic Review of the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Prevalence, Genotype Distribution, and Seasonality in Children from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the most common viruses to infect children worldwide and is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract illness (LRI) in infants. This study aimed to conduct a systematic review by collecting and reviewing all the published knowledge about the epidemiology of RSV in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Therefore, we systematically searched four databases; Embase, Medline, Scopus, and Cochrane databases from 2001 to 2019 to collect all the information related to the RSV prevalence, genotype distribution, and seasonality in children in MENA region. Our search strategy identified 598 studies, of which 83 met our inclusion criteria, which cover the past 19 years (2000–2019). Odds ratio (OR) and confidence interval (CI) were calculated to measure the association between RSV prevalence, gender, and age distribution. An overall prevalence of 24.4% (n = 17,106/69,981) of respiratory infections was recorded for RSV. The highest RSV prevalence was reported in Jordan (64%, during 2006–2007) and Israel (56%, 2005–2006). RSV A subgroup was more prevalent (62.9%; OR = 2.9, 95%CI = 2.64–3.13) than RSV B. RSV was most prevalent in children who were less than 12 months old (68.6%; OR = 4.7, 95%CI = 2.6–8.6) and was higher in males (59.6%; OR = 2.17, 95%CI = 1.2–3.8) than in female infants. Finally, the highest prevalence was recorded during winter seasons in all countries, except for Pakistan. RSV prevalence in the MENA region is comparable with the global one (24.4% vs. 22%). This first comprehensive report about RSV prevalence in the MENA region and our data should be important to guide vaccine introduction decisions and future evaluation.

Agreement between Framingham, IraPEN and non-laboratory WHO-EMR risk score calculators for cardiovascular risk prediction in a large Iranian population

Introduction: Estimation of the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), may lead to prophylactic therapies. This study aims to compare and evaluate the agreement between CVD prediction of Iran Package of Essential Non-communicable Disease (IraPEN) and Framingham risk score (FRS).

Methods: All 40-79 years old participants in the Yazd Health Study who did not have a history of CVD were included. The 10-years risk of CVD was estimated by the laboratory (IraPEN), non-laboratory WHO-EMR B and FRS. The risk was classified into low, moderate and high-risk groups. Cohen’s weighted kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between tools. To assess discrepancies McNemar’s χ2 test for paired data was used. P values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results: In total, 2103 participant was included and the risk scores were calculated. Of them, 26.5% were stratified as high risk by FRS, compared with 6.1% by IraPEN. A slight agreement (37.9%) was observed (kappa 0.17, P < 0.0001), in other words. This discrepancy between IraPEN vs. FRS was seen in both sexes (P < 0.0001), although in women the agreement ratio was higher (52.1% vs. 21.3%). The discrepancy between FRS and IraPEN in categorizing people at risk of CVD was 55.5%, (P < 0.0001) but this was not significant between IraPEN and non-laboratory WHO-EMR-B (World Health Organization - Eastern Mediterranean Regional-B group countries) score (P < 0.523; discrepancies, 5.8%).

Conclusion: Our study shows a slight agreement between various CVD risk scores. Thus, reviewing the IraPEN and using alternative tools for the low-risk group should be considered by decision-makers. It is important to use a more reliable score for nation-wide risk assessment.

Results of Activity of Anonymous Alcoholic Association in Iran

Background

Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) is the largest non-governmental organization (NGO) for alcoholics in the world. During the recent decades, Iran has suffered from alcohol abuse and its consequences. Alcoholism is a taboo subject in Iran and there are few studies in this area. This is the first study in Iran to investigate the results of the activity of anonymous alcoholics.

Methods

Data were collected from the improved members of the AA in Iran (n = 6197).

Findings

The obtained results included members’ demographic characteristics, age of sobriety, average attendance in weekly meetings, status of the sponsor, status of relapse, and the way of entering each member into AA groups.

Conclusion

The activity of the AA in Iran is facing limitations and obstacles. The number of individuals with sobriety age above 20 years is not available because of the short-age activity of the AA in Iran. The number of men using this program is higher compared to women. Most members are individuals aging 31 to 40 years who are considered active members of the society.

The risk of cardiovascular events based on the Framingham criteria in Adults Living in Mashhad (Iran)

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Cardiovascular diseases are a problem in low- and middle-income countries, such as Iran. The present research was performed to identify risk factors contributing to cardiovascular diseases and their distributions among the adult population of Mashhad (Iran) using the Framingham criteria.

METHODS

This cross-sectional population-based study performed in 2015 on 2,976 adults living in Mashhad (Iran) using Stratified cluster-random sampling method. Demographic information was acquired by surveyors in the research team using a checklist and referring to a medical laboratory for laboratory assessments. The 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases for the participants was calculated using the Framingham criteria and was classified into three classes: low risk (<10%), intermediate risk (10-20%), and high risk (>20%). The analysis was done by SPSS Version 11.5 by using the Independent-samples t-test, Kruskal-Wallis, and analysis of variance (ANOVA).

RESULTS

A total of 2,978 participants aged 16-90 participated in our cross-sectional study with an average age of 43.5±14.7 years. Total risk scores among men and women were 7.29±6.3 and 5.8±6.03, respectively. Compared to women, men exhibited a significantly higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (p<0.001). Average heart age among men and women was estimated at 50.37±18.7 and 48.8±17.0 respectively, i.e. significantly older heart age was obtained for men compared to women (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

According to this study, men are at a great risk of cardiovascular events, so we should develop our screening and educational program especially for this population.

Guidelines and mHealth to Improve Quality of Hypertension and Type 2 Diabetes Care for Vulnerable Populations in Lebanon: Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background

Given the protracted nature of the crisis in Syria, the large noncommunicable disease (NCD) caseload of Syrian refugees and host Lebanese, and the high costs of providing NCD care, the implications for Lebanon’s health system are vast.

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment guidelines and a mobile health (mHealth) app on quality of care and health outcomes in primary care settings in Lebanon.

Methods

A longitudinal cohort study was implemented from January 2015 to August 2016 to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment guidelines and an mHealth app on quality of care and health outcomes for Syrian and Lebanese patients in Lebanese primary health care (PHC) facilities.

Results

Compared with baseline record extraction, recording of blood pressure (BP) readings (−11.4%, P<.001) and blood sugar measurements (−6.9%, P=.03) significantly decreased following the implementation of treatment guidelines. Recording of BP readings also decreased after the mHealth phase as compared with baseline (−8.4%, P=.001); however, recording of body mass index (BMI) reporting increased at the end of the mHealth phase from baseline (8.1%, P<.001) and the guidelines phase (7.7%, P<.001). There were a great proportion of patients for whom blood sugar, BP, weight, height, and BMI were recorded using the tablet compared with in paper records; however, only differences in BMI were statistically significant (31.6% higher in app data as compared with paper records; P<.001). Data extracted from the mHealth app showed that a higher proportion of providers offered lifestyle counseling compared with the counseling reported in patients’ paper records (health diet counseling; 77.3% in app data vs 8.8% in paper records, P<.001 and physical activity counseling and 59.7% in app vs 7.1% in paper records, P<.001). There were statistically significant increases in all four measures of patient-provider interaction across study phases. Provider inquiry of medical history increased by 16.6% from baseline following guideline implementation and by 28.2% from baseline to mHealth implementation (P<.001). From baseline, patient report of provider inquiry regarding medication complications increased in the guidelines and mHealth phases by 12.9% and 59.6%, respectively, (P<.001). The proportion of patients reporting that providers asked other questions relevant to their illness increased from baseline through guidelines implementation by 27.8% and to mHealth implementation by 66.3% (P<.001). Follow-up scheduling increased from baseline to the guidelines phase by 20.6% and the mHealth phase by 39.8% (P<.001).

Conclusions

Results from this study of an mHealth app in 10 PHC facilities in Lebanon indicate that the app has potential to improve adherence to guidelines and quality of care. Further studies are necessary to determine the effects of patient-controlled health record apps on provider adherence to treatment guidelines, as well as patients’ long-term medication and treatment adherence and disease control.

Prevalence, care-seeking, and health service utilization for non-communicable diseases among Syrian refugees and host communities in Lebanon

Background

Given the large burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among both Syrian refugees and the host communities within which they are settled, humanitarian actors and the government of Lebanon face immense challenges in addressing health needs. This study assessed health status, unmet needs, and utilization of health services among Syrian refugees and host communities in Lebanon.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey of Syrian refugees and host communities in Lebanon was conducted using a two-stage cluster survey design with probability proportional to size sampling. To obtain information on chronic NCDs, respondents were asked a series of questions about hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and arthritis. Differences in household characteristics by care-seeking for these conditions were examined using chi-square, t-test, and adjusted logistic regression methods.

Results

Over half (50.4 %) of refugee and host community households (60.2 %) reported a member with one of the five NCDs. Host community prevalence rates were significantly higher than refugees for all conditions except chronic respiratory diseases (p = 0.08). Care-seeking for NCDs among refugees and host community households was high across all conditions with 82.9 and 97.8 %, respectively, having sought care in Lebanon for their condition. Refugees utilized primary health care centers (PHCC) (57.7 %) most often while host communities sought care most in private clinics (62.4 %). Overall, 69.7 % of refugees and 82.7 % of host community members reported an out-of-pocket consultation payment (p = 0.041) with an average payment of US$15 among refugees and US$42 for the host community (p <0.001).

Conclusions

Given the protracted nature of the Syrian crisis and the burden on the Lebanese health system, implications for both individuals with NCDs and Lebanon’s health system are immense. The burden of out of pocket expenses on persons with NCDs are also substantial, especially given the tenuous economic status of many refugees and the less affluent segments of the Lebanese population. Greater investment in the public sector health system could benefit all parties. Efforts to improve quality of care for NCDs at the primary care level are also a critical component of preventing adverse outcomes and lowering the overall cost of care for NCDs.

The clinical performance of an office-based risk scoring system for fatal cardiovascular diseases in North-East of Iran

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran.

METHODS

The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed.

RESULTS

A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787) in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791) in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779) in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815). The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed.

CONCLUSION

The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD.

Cardiovascular disease mortality and years of life lost attributable to non-optimal systolic blood pressure and hypertension in northeastern Iran

BACKGROUND

High blood pressure is the second most important risk factor of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in Iran. It is imperative to estimate the burden of CVDs that can be averted if high blood pressure is controlled at the population level. The aim of the current study was to estimate the avertable CVD mortality in the setting of Golestan Cohort Study (GCS).

METHODS

Over 50,000 participants were recruited and followed for a median of 7 years. The exposures of interest in this study were non-optimal systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hypertension measured at baseline. Deaths by cause have been precisely recorded. The Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of deaths and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) due to CVDs attributable to exposures of interest were calculated.

RESULTS

Overall, 223 deaths due to ischemic heart disease (IHD), 207 deaths due to cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), and 460 deaths due to all CVDs could be averted if the SBP of all subjects in the study were optimal. Similarly, 5,560 YLLs due to IHD, 4,771 YLLs due to CVA, and 11,135 YLLs due to CVDs could be prevented if SBP were optimal. In all age groups, the avertable deaths and YLLs were higher due to IHD compared with CVA. Deaths and YLLs attributable to non-optimal SBP in women were less than men.

CONCLUSIONS

A very large proportion of CVD deaths can be averted if blood pressure is controlled in Iran. Effective interventions in primary and secondary health care setting are mandatory to be implemented as early as possible.

A conceptual framework for evaluation of public health and primary care system performance in iran

INTRODUCTION

The main objective of this study was to design a conceptual framework, according to the policies and priorities of the ministry of health to evaluate provincial public health and primary care performance and to assess their share in the overall health impacts of the community.

METHODS

We used several tools and techniques, including system thinking, literature review to identify relevant attributes of health system performance framework and interview with the key stakeholders. The PubMed, Scopus, web of science, Google Scholar and two specialized databases of Persian language literature (IranMedex and SID) were searched using main terms and keywords. Following decision-making and collective agreement among the different stakeholders, 51 core indicators were chosen from among 602 obtained indicators in a four stage process, for monitoring and evaluation of Health Deputies.

RESULTS

We proposed a conceptual framework by identifying the performance area for Health Deputies between other determinants of health, as well as introducing a chain of results, for performance, consisting of Input, Process, Output and Outcome indicators. We also proposed 5 dimensions for measuring the performance of Health Deputies, consisting of efficiency, effectiveness, equity, access and improvement of health status.

CONCLUSION

The proposed Conceptual Framework illustrates clearly the Health Deputies success in achieving best results and consequences of health in the country. Having the relative commitment of the ministry of health and Health Deputies at the University of Medical Sciences is essential for full implementation of this framework and providing the annual performance report.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.

METHODS

We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.

INTERPRETATION

For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries.

METHODS

We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions.

FINDINGS

Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions.

INTERPRETATION

For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.