FDA's Critical Path Initiative: A Perspective on Contributions of Biostatistics

Mesenchymal stem cell therapy in aqueous deficient dry eye disease

ENGLISH SUMMARY

Dry eye disease (DED) is characterized by ocular dryness, irritation and blurred vision and has a significant impact on the patient's quality of life. This condition can be particularly severe in patients with aqueous deficient dry eye disease (ADDE) due to Sjögren's syndrome (SS), an autoimmune disease that affects the lacrimal and salivary glands. Current treatments for ADDE are often limited to symptomatic relief. A literature review was conducted to explore the current surgical interventions used or tested in humans with ADDE (I). These interventions include procedures involving the eyelids and tear ducts, transplantation of amniotic membrane or salivary glands, injections around the tear ducts and cell-based injections into the lacrimal gland (LG). Each treatment has its advantages and disadvantages; however, treating dry eyes in patients with SS presents a particular challenge due to the systemic nature of the disease. Moreover, there is a need for new therapeutic options. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are a type of stem cell that have shown promise in regenerating damaged tissue and reducing inflammation in various diseases. Previous studies in animal models have suggested that MSCs could be effective in treating ADDE. Thus, this thesis aims to investigate the safety and efficacy of injecting MSCs into the LG as a treatment option for patients with ADDE secondary to SS. The study also aims to see this treatment in light of existing and novel investigational treatment options. The clinical studies conducted for this thesis are the first of their kind in humans. MSCs derived from healthy donors' adipose tissue (ASCs) were cultured in a laboratory, frozen and thawed ready for use. In the safety study, we performed the first human trial involving the administration of a single injection of ASCs into the LG of one eye in seven patients suffering from severe ADDE (II). The primary objective was to test the safety of this treatment, while the secondary objective was to assess improvements in subjective and objective signs of dry eye. The results of the trial showed no serious side effects within 4 months of follow-up after treatment. On average, there was a 40% reduction in dry eye symptoms assessed with the Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI) questionnaire. Additionally, in the treated eye, there was a significant decrease in tear osmolarity, an increase in tear film stability and an increase in tear production. To further investigate the efficacy of this treatment, our research group performed a clinical, randomized study aiming to compare the ASC injection into the LG with the injection of a vehicle (the excipient in which the ASCs are dissolved) and observation (no intervention) (III). The study involved 20 subjects receiving ASC injection, 20 subjects receiving vehicle injection and 14 patients being observed without intervention. The subjects were examined to assess the outcomes with a 12-month follow-up after treatment. Both intervention groups showed a significant reduction in subjective dry eye symptoms of approximately 40%. This improvement was evident at the 1-week follow-up and persisted until the 12-month follow-up. The observation group did not experience any change in OSDI score. The ASCs group exhibited a significant mean increase in non-invasive tear break-up time (NIKBUT) of 6.48 s (149%) at the four-week follow-up, which was significantly higher than that in the vehicle group (p = 0.04). Moreover, the ASCs group showed a significant increase in NIKBUT compared to that in the observation group at the 12-month follow-up (p = 0.004). In both the ASCs and vehicle group, a significant increase in Schirmer test scores at the 4-month follow-up and the 12-month follow-up was observed. In conclusion, this thesis contributes valuable findings with a new treatment option for patients with dry eye disease. Injection of ASCs into the LG was shown to be safe and to improve subjective dry eye symptoms and specifically the tear film stability in patients with ADDE due to SS. Compared to other treatment modalities of ADDE, this treatment has greater potential, as ASCs could potentially be used as an anti-inflammatory therapeutic option for managing DED of other causes as well. RESUMÉ (DANISH SUMMARY): Tørre øjne, karakteriseret ved tørhedsfornemmelse og irritation af øjnene samt sløret syn, har en betydelig indvirkning på patientens livskvalitet. Denne tilstand kan vaere saerligt alvorlig hos patienter med nedsat tåreproduktion (ADDE) som følge af Sjögrens syndrom (SS), en autoimmun sygdom, der påvirker tårekirtlerne og spytkirtlerne. Nuvaerende behandlinger for ADDE er ofte begraenset til symptomlindring. Vi gennemførte en litteraturgennemgang for at undersøge, hvilke nuvaerende kirurgiske behandlingsmetoder, der anvendes eller testes hos patienter med ADDE (I). Disse interventioner inkluderer procedurer, der involverer øjenlåg og tårekanaler, transplantation af amnionhinde eller spytkirtler, injektioner omkring tårekanalerne samt cellebaserede injektioner i tårekirtlen. Hver behandling har sine fordele og ulemper, men behandling af tørre øjne hos patienter med SS udgør en saerlig udfordring på grund af sygdommens systemiske udbredning, og der er behov for nye behandlingsmuligheder. Mesenkymale stamceller (MSCs) er en type stamcelle, der har vist lovende resultater med hensyn til at regenerere beskadiget vaev og reducere inflammation i forskellige sygdomme. Tidligere undersøgelser i dyremodeller har indikeret, at MSCs kan vaere en effektiv behandling af ADDE. Denne afhandling har til formål at undersøge sikkerheden og effekten af injektion af MSCs i tårekirtlen som en mulig behandling til patienter med ADDE som følge af SS. Afhandlingen sigter også mod at sammenligne denne behandling med andre eksisterende, kirurgiske behandlingsmuligheder af ADDE. Som led i dette projekt udførte vi de første kliniske forsøg af sin art i mennesker. MSCs fra raske donorers fedtvaev (ASCs) blev dyrket i et laboratorium, frosset ned og er optøet klar til brug. Det første mål var at teste sikkerheden ved denne behandling og sekundaert at undersøge behandlingens effekt. For at undersøge dette modtog syv forsøgspersoner med svaer ADDE én injektion med ASCs i tårekirtlen på det ene øje (II). Resultaterne af forsøget viste ingen alvorlige bivirkninger inden for fire måneders opfølgning efter behandlingen. I gennemsnit fandt vi yderligere en 40% reduktion i symptomer på tørre øjne vurderet med et spørgeskema, og en markant stigning i tåreproduktionen og af tårefilmens stabilitet i det behandlede øje. For yderligere at undersøge effekten af denne behandling udførte vi et klinisk, randomiseret forsøg med det formål at sammenligne injektion af ASCs i tårekirtlen med injektion af en kontrolopløsning (vaesken, hvor stamcellerne var opløst) og observation (ingen intervention) (III). Studiet omfattede 20 forsøgspersoner, der modtog ASC-injektion, 20 forsøgspersoner, der modtog injektion af kontrolopløsningen, og 14 forsøgspersoner i observationsgruppen. Forsøgspersonerne blev undersøgt med en opfølgningstid på 12 måneder efter behandling. Begge interventionsgrupper viste en betydelig reduktion på ca. 40% i subjektive symptomer på tørre øjne. Denne forbedring var betydelig allerede ved opfølgning efter en uge og varede ved 12 måneder efter behandling. Observationsgruppen oplevede ingen betydelig aendring i symptomer. ASCs gruppen viste desuden en signifikant stigning i tårefilmsstabiliteten (NIKBUT) på 6,48 sekunder (149%) ved opfølgning efter fire uger, hvilket var markant højere end efter injektion af kontrolopløsning (p = 0,04). Desuden viste ASCs gruppen en betydelig stigning i NIKBUT sammenlignet med observationsgruppen ved opfølgning efter 12 måneder (p = 0,004). Både injektion af ASCs og kontrolopløsning medførte en betydelig stigning i tåreproduktionen ved opfølgning fire måneder og 12 måneder efter behandling. Denne afhandling bidrager med vigtige resultater inden for en ny behandlingsmulighed af tørre øjne. Injektion af ASCs i tårekirtlen viste sig at vaere sikker, forbedrede subjektive symptomer på tørre øjne og øgede saerligt tårfilmens stabilitet hos patienter med ADDE på grund af SS. Sammenlignet med andre behandlingsmuligheder for ADDE har denne behandling vist et stort potentiale. ASCs kan muligvis også bruges som en anti-inflammatorisk behandling af tørre øjne af andre årsager i fremtiden.

Facilitating treatment initiation and reproductive care postpartum to prevent substance-exposed pregnancies: A randomized bayesian pilot trial

BACKGROUND

For non-treatment-seeking women who use substances during pregnancy, immediately postpartum may be an optimum time for intervention. Our study tested a novel, brief, hospital-initiated, adaptive motivational interviewing plus acceptance and commitment therapy (MIACT) intervention to facilitate treatment initiation and reproductive planning postpartum among mothers who used substances during pregnancy.

METHODS

Mothers (N = 64) with an infant admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit were enrolled if they or their infant tested positive for an illicit substance at delivery or had a documented positive drug screen during pregnancy. A parallel group, randomized controlled design assigned participants to MIACT or conventional care (CC), with assessments at week 2 and 4 during treatment and follow-up at 2 and 6 months post treatment. Bayesian generalized linear modeling was used to evaluate outcomes as a function of treatment.

RESULTS

Results indicated that during treatment the MIACT group demonstrated an 84% probability of benefit relative to CC with regard to initiating treatment (RR=1.5), however the effect was not seen at follow-up. MIACT was also associated with an increased probability of attending a postpartum obstetrics visit (RR=1.4), and receiving contraception during treatment and at both follow-ups, with posterior probabilities of 96% or higher and relative risks ranging from 1.5 to 5.1 at varying timepoints. Substance use rates for the MIACT versus CC were higher at follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Brief, hospital-initiated interventions can assist postpartum mothers who use substances to enter treatment and obtain contraception in order to reduce future substance-exposed pregnancies.

Targeting white matter neuroprotection as a relapse prevention strategy for treatment of cocaine use disorder: Design of a mechanism-focused randomized clinical trial

Cocaine use continues to be a significant public health problem with limited treatment options and no approved pharmacotherapies. Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) remains the mainstay treatment for preventing relapse, however, people with chronic cocaine use display cognitive impairments that are associated with poor response to CBT. Emerging evidence in animal and human studies suggests that the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma (PPAR- γ) agonist, pioglitazone, improves white matter integrity that is essential for cognitive function. This project will determine whether adjunctive use of pioglitazone enhances the effect of CBT in preventing relapse during the early phase of recovery from cocaine use disorder. This paper describes the design of a mechanism-focused phase 2 randomized clinical trial that aims first to evaluate the effects of pioglitazone on targeted mechanisms related to white matter integrity, cognitive function, and cocaine craving; and second, to evaluate the extent to which improvements on target mechanisms predict CBT response. Positive results will support pioglitazone as a potential cognitive enhancing agent to advance to later stage medication development research.

Exenatide Adjunct to Nicotine Patch Facilitates Smoking Cessation and May Reduce Post-Cessation Weight Gain: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial

INTRODUCTION

Approved pharmacological treatments for smoking cessation are modestly effective, underscoring the need for improved pharmacotherapies. Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) agonists attenuate the rewarding effects of nicotine in preclinical studies. We examined the efficacy of extended-release exenatide, a GLP-1R agonist, combined with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT, patch) for smoking cessation, craving, and withdrawal symptoms, with post-cessation body weight as a secondary outcome.

METHODS

Eighty-four prediabetic and/or overweight smokers were randomized (1 : 1) to once-weekly placebo or exenatide, 2 mg, subcutaneously. All participants received NRT (21 mg) and brief smoking cessation counseling. Seven-day point prevalence abstinence (expired CO level ≤5 ppm), craving, withdrawal, and post-cessation body weight were assessed following 6 weeks of treatment. A Bayesian approach for analyzing generalized linear models yielded posterior probabilities (PP) to quantify the evidence favoring hypothesized effects of treatment on the study outcomes.

RESULTS

Exenatide increased the risk for smoking abstinence compared to placebo (46.3% and 26.8%, respectively), (risk ratio [RR] = 1.70; 95% credible interval = [0.96, 3.27]; PP = 96.5%). Exenatide reduced end-of-treatment craving in the overall sample and withdrawal among abstainers. Post-cessation body weight was 5.6 pounds lower in the exenatide group compared to placebo (PP = 97.4%). Adverse events were reported in 9.5% and 2.3% of participants in the exenatide and placebo groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Exenatide, in combination with the NRT improved smoking abstinence, reduced craving and withdrawal symptoms, and decreased weight gain among abstainers. Findings suggest that the GLP-1R agonist strategy is worthy of further research in larger, longer duration studies.

IMPLICATIONS

Despite considerable progress in tobacco control, cigarette smoking remains the leading cause of preventable disease, disability, and death. In this pilot study, we showed that extended-release exenatide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist, added to the nicotine patch, improved abstinence and mitigated post-cessation body weight gain compared to patch alone. Further research is needed to confirm these initial positive results.

Statistical fundamentals on cancer research for clinicians: Working with your statisticians

PURPOSE

To facilitate understanding statistical principles and methods for clinicians involved in cancer research.

METHODS

An overview of study design is provided on cancer research for both observational and clinical trials addressing study objectives and endpoints, superiority tests, non-inferiority and equivalence design, and sample size calculation. The principles of statistical models and tests including contemporary standard methods of analysis and evaluation are discussed. Finally, some statistical pitfalls frequently evident in clinical and translational studies in cancer are discussed.

RESULTS

We emphasize the practical aspects of study design (superiority vs non-inferiority vs equivalence study) and assumptions underpinning power calculations and sample size estimation. The differences between relative risk, odds ratio, and hazard ratio, understanding outcome endpoints, purposes of interim analysis, and statistical modeling to minimize confounding effects and bias are also discussed.

CONCLUSION

Proper design and correctly constructed statistical models are critical for the success of cancer research studies. Most statistical inaccuracies can be minimized by following essential statistical principles and guidelines to improve quality in research studies.

Phase II Trials in Drug Development and Adaptive Trial Design

Phase II clinical studies represent a critical point in determining drug costs, and phase II is a poor predictor of drug success: >30% of drugs entering phase II studies fail to progress, and >58% of drugs go on to fail in phase III. Adaptive clinical trial design has been proposed as a way to reduce the costs of phase II testing by providing earlier determination of futility and prediction of phase III success, reducing overall phase II and III trial sizes, and shortening overall drug development time. This review examines issues in phase II testing and adaptive trial design.

Development process of a consensus-driven CONSORT extension for randomised trials using an adaptive design

BACKGROUND

Adequate reporting of adaptive designs (ADs) maximises their potential benefits in the conduct of clinical trials. Transparent reporting can help address some obstacles and concerns relating to the use of ADs. Currently, there are deficiencies in the reporting of AD trials. To overcome this, we have developed a consensus-driven extension to the CONSORT statement for randomised trials using an AD. This paper describes the processes and methods used to develop this extension rather than detailed explanation of the guideline.

METHODS

We developed the guideline in seven overlapping stages: 1) Building on prior research to inform the need for a guideline; 2) A scoping literature review to inform future stages; 3) Drafting the first checklist version involving an External Expert Panel; 4) A two-round Delphi process involving international, multidisciplinary, and cross-sector key stakeholders; 5) A consensus meeting to advise which reporting items to retain through voting, and to discuss the structure of what to include in the supporting explanation and elaboration (E&E) document; 6) Refining and finalising the checklist; and 7) Writing-up and dissemination of the E&E document. The CONSORT Executive Group oversaw the entire development process.

RESULTS

Delphi survey response rates were 94/143 (66%), 114/156 (73%), and 79/143 (55%) in rounds 1, 2, and across both rounds, respectively. Twenty-seven delegates from Europe, the USA, and Asia attended the consensus meeting. The main checklist has seven new and nine modified items and six unchanged items with expanded E&E text to clarify further considerations for ADs. The abstract checklist has one new and one modified item together with an unchanged item with expanded E&E text. The E&E document will describe the scope of the guideline, the definition of an AD, and some types of ADs and trial adaptations and explain each reporting item in detail including case studies.

CONCLUSIONS

We hope that making the development processes, methods, and all supporting information that aided decision-making transparent will enhance the acceptability and quick uptake of the guideline. This will also help other groups when developing similar CONSORT extensions. The guideline is applicable to all randomised trials with an AD and contains minimum reporting requirements.

A sequential multiple assignment randomized trial for cocaine cessation and relapse prevention: Tailoring treatment to the individual

Drug addiction is a chronic, devastating, but treatable disorder. A core principle of drug addiction treatment states that no single treatment is appropriate for everyone (NIDA, 2012); treatments need to adjust based on patient characteristics and response in order to be maximally effective. For cocaine use disorders (CUD), specifically, the most potent intervention currently available for initiating abstinence is behavior therapy using contingency management (CM) procedures, with early cessation being a robust predictor of future abstinence. This raises two key questions for treatment development research: First, can we significantly improve initial CM response rates with targeted adjunctive interventions? Second, for individuals who fail to achieve initial abstinence with CM, is pharmacotherapy an effective augmentation strategy? This paper describes how a sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) design has advantages over a fixed-intervention approach when it comes to collecting data needed to answer both questions. The first aim will examine whether Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) in combination with CM increases initial abstinence response rates (i.e., 2 consecutive weeks of cocaine-negative urine screens). The second aim will examine whether ACT+CM in combination with modafinil promotes abstinence achievement in initial non-responders. Results are expected to inform how we tailor treatment of CUD to maximize outcomes.

Exenatide once weekly for smoking cessation: study protocol for a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is the greatest preventable cause of morbidity and premature mortality in the United States. Approved pharmacological treatments for smoking cessation are marginally effective, underscoring the need for improved pharmacotherapies. A novel approach might use glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists, which reduce alcohol and drug use in preclinical studies. GLP-1 is produced in the intestinal L-cells and in the hindbrain. The peptide maintains glucose homeostasis and reduces food intake. Several GLP-1 agonists are used clinically to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity, but none have been tested in humans to reduce smoking.

AIMS

We will examine whether extended-release exenatide reduces smoking, craving, and withdrawal symptoms, as well as cue-induced craving for cigarettes.

METHODS

We will enroll prediabetic and/or overweight treatment seeking smokers (n = 90) into a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial. Participants will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive exenatide or placebo. All participants will receive transdermal nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and behavioral counseling. Abstinence from smoking (verified via expired CO level of ≤5 ppm), craving (Questionnaire of Smoking Urges score), and withdrawal symptoms (Wisconsin Scale of Withdrawal Symptoms score) will be assessed weekly during 6 weeks of treatment and at 1 and 4 weeks posttreatment. Cue-induced craving for cigarettes will be assessed at baseline and at 3 weeks of treatment following virtual reality exposure.

EXPECTED OUTCOMES

We hypothesize that exenatide will increase the number of participants able to achieve complete smoking abstinence above that achieved via standard NRT and that exenatide will reduce craving and withdrawal symptoms, as well as cue-induced craving for cigarettes.

Benefits of varenicline vs. bupropion for smoking cessation: a Bayesian analysis of the interaction of reward sensitivity and treatment

RATIONALE

We have shown that differences in the level of neural activation to stimuli associated with smoking vs. natural rewards, a biomarker related to reward sensitivity, predict treatment outcome.

OBJECTIVES

This paper examined whether this biomarker moderates the impact of bupropion or varenicline on smoking cessation.

METHODS

Prior to treatment randomization, smokers (N = 180) in a placebo-controlled trial using bupropion and varenicline completed event-related potential recording (late positive potential, LPP) while viewing pleasant (P), cigarette (C)-related, and other pictures. We used Bayesian models to estimate the probability of interaction between treatment and the LPP for both efficacy and comparative effectiveness analyses.

RESULTS

Efficacy analysis showed that smokers with more neural activation to pleasant vs. cigarette-related stimuli (P > C) had a 98-99% chance of achieving greater abstinence than placebo (OR >1.00), using either medication from the end of treatment (EOT, primary outcome) through the 3-month follow-up. Relative to placebo, smokers with higher activation to cigarette-related vs. pleasant stimuli (C > P) had a 99% chance of increased benefit from varenicline at both time points (OR >1), but only 67 and 43% with bupropion at the EOT and 3-month follow-up, respectively. Comparative effectiveness analysis found that smokers with the C > P activation pattern had a 95-98% chance of benefit from varenicline vs. bupropion, while P > C smokers had a 50-58% chance of similar improvement with varenicline at the EOT and 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Varenicline appears to be the treatment of choice for smokers with the C > P pattern of neural activation, while for those showing P > C, varenicline and bupropion have similar efficacy.

Achieving a Culture of Quality in Pharmaceutical Biostatistics: One Approach to Achieving Quality Deliverables

Biostatistics units within the pharmaceutical industry are faced with the challenge of increasing productivity, reducing costs, and accelerating timelines while at the same time maintaining high quality. This paper describes how the global biostatistics unit in one company is addressing this challenge by nurturing a "culture of quality" to engage frontline staff responsible for daily deliverables. The approach ties together the measurement, improvement, and maintenance of quality, thus inviting staff to understand their role in achieving quality deliverables. Appointment within the operations unit of a quality lead, who is responsible for quality oversight, further increases visibility and contributes to the culture. Measurement is addressed through the use of a quarterly quality report card in which quality-related metrics are consolidated and tracked over time. Trends and outliers are explored. Through established process improvement practices, a Lean Sigma team tackles select high-value processes. Quality is maintained through continuous feedback loops driven by formal quality assurance audits and logs of lessons learned. This paper first considers how to define quality in this context; then addresses the sometimes disjointed areas of measurement, improvement, and maintenance; and ultimately ties them together to drive a culture of quality.

Optimal Adaptive Design in Clinical Drug Development: A Simulation Example

The objective of this article is to demonstrate optimal adaptive design as a methodology for improving the performance of phase II dose-response studies. Optimal adaptive design uses both information prior to the study and data accrued during the study to continuously update and refine the study design. Dose-response models include linear, log-linear, 4-parameter sigmoidal E(max), and exponential models. Where the response has both a placebo effect and plateau at higher doses, only the 4-parameter sigmoidal E(max) model behaves acceptably and hence is used to illustrate the methodology. Across 13 hypothetical dose-response scenarios considered, it was shown that the capability of the adaptive designs to "learn" the true dose response resulted in performances up to 180% more efficient than the best fixed optimal designs. This work exposes the common misconception that adaptive designs are somehow "risky." As shown in this simple simulation example, the converse is true. Adaptive designs perform extremely well both when prior information is accurate and inaccurate. This leads to improved dose-response models and dose selection in phase III. This benefits sponsors, regulators, and subjects alike by reducing sample size, increasing information, and providing better dose guidance.

Patient-specific measures of a biomarker for the generation of individual reference intervals: hemoglobin as example

Although hemoglobin concentration measurement is among the most commonly performed blood tests, the description of global population parameters, heterogeneous factors, and within-subject variations in patients with disease remains incomplete. As absolute action values are being published in the medical literature and by government healthcare agencies, these measures are important to define patient-specific ranges of biomarkers. Here, a global clinical trial data set composed of 1,537,932 hemoglobin values from 416,374 patients and 372 clinical indications was generated over 2 years by automated analyzers in a global network of 5 laboratories. Within- and between-subject components of variance and the effect of factors age, gender, nationality, and clinical indication were determined using unbalanced multiway analysis of variance. Average within-subject variances differed significantly depending on the clinical indication (0.15-1.3 g(2)/dL(2)) but, nevertheless, remained significantly lower than between-subject variances. The main sources of between-subject variation were clinical indication and gender, followed by age and nationality. An adaptive Bayesian approach was then used to generate patient-specific ranges of hemoglobin for drug safety and efficacy assessment in clinical trials. The same methodology can be applied to the evaluation of any biomarker signal in translational medicine.

Non-compartment model to compartment model pharmacokinetics transformation meta-analysis--a multivariate nonlinear mixed model

BACKGROUND

To fulfill the model based drug development, the very first step is usually a model establishment from published literatures. Pharmacokinetics model is the central piece of model based drug development. This paper proposed an important approach to transform published non-compartment model pharmacokinetics (PK) parameters into compartment model PK parameters. This meta-analysis was performed with a multivariate nonlinear mixed model. A conditional first-order linearization approach was developed for statistical estimation and inference.

RESULTS

Using MDZ as an example, we showed that this approach successfully transformed 6 non-compartment model PK parameters from 10 publications into 5 compartment model PK parameters. In simulation studies, we showed that this multivariate nonlinear mixed model had little relative bias (<1%) in estimating compartment model PK parameters if all non-compartment PK parameters were reported in every study. If there missing non-compartment PK parameters existed in some published literatures, the relative bias of compartment model PK parameter was still small (<3%). The 95% coverage probabilities of these PK parameter estimates were above 85%.

CONCLUSIONS

This non-compartment model PK parameter transformation into compartment model meta-analysis approach possesses valid statistical inference. It can be routinely used for model based drug development.

Bayesian clinical trials at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center

BACKGROUND

The Bayesian approach is being used increasingly in medical research. In particular, it has become a standard in designing clinical trials at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center.

PURPOSE

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METHODS

To address the extent and nature of Bayesian trials conducted at M. D. Anderson, we reviewed the protocols registered in the Protocol Document Online System between 2000 and early 2005. We summarize our findings and give details for three innovative trials that typify those in which a Bayesian approach has played a major role at the center.

RESULTS

Of 964 protocols reviewed, 59% were conducted solely at M. D. Anderson and the rest were multicenter trials. Bayesian designs and analyses were used in about 20% (195/964) of the protocols that we reviewed. Of the 520 protocols identified as phase I or II drug trials, about 34% were Bayesian. Most of the 195 Bayesian trials were designed by M. D. Anderson statisticians. The Bayesian design features most commonly used were the continuous reassessment method in phase I (toxicity) trials, adaptive randomization in phase II trials, and designs to monitor efficacy and toxicity simultaneously. We also provide an insider's view regarding some practical considerations that have made the design and implementation of so many Bayesian trials possible.

LIMITATIONS

We reviewed only a subset of all M. D. Anderson protocols, but did not exclude any available in electronic form.

CONCLUSIONS

The large number of Bayesian trials conducted at M. D. Anderson testifies to the receptivity to the Bayesian approach within the center, including principal investigators, regulatory review committees, and patients. Statisticians who take a Bayesian perspective can successfully work to establish a culture of innovation in clinical trial design.

Literature mining on pharmacokinetics numerical data: a feasibility study

A feasibility study of literature mining is conducted on drug PK parameter numerical data with a sequential mining strategy. Firstly, an entity template library is built to retrieve pharmacokinetics relevant articles. Then a set of tagging and extraction rules are applied to retrieve PK data from the article abstracts. To estimate the PK parameter population-average mean and between-study variance, a linear mixed meta-analysis model and an E-M algorithm are developed to describe the probability distributions of PK parameters. Finally, a cross-validation procedure is developed to ascertain false-positive mining results. Using this approach to mine midazolam (MDZ) PK data, an 88% precision rate and 92% recall rate are achieved, with an F-score=90%. It greatly out-performs a conventional data mining approach (support vector machine), which has an F-score of 68.1%. Further investigate on 7 more drugs reveals comparable performances of our sequential mining approach.

Group sequential and adaptive designs - a review of basic concepts and points of discussion

In recent times, group sequential and adaptive designs for clinical trials have attracted great attention from industry, academia and regulatory authorities. These designs allow analyses on accumulating data - as opposed to classical, "fixed-sample" statistics. The rapid development of a great variety of statistical procedures is accompanied by a lively debate on their potential merits and shortcomings. The purpose of this review article is to ease orientation in both respects. First, we provide a concise overview of the essential technical concepts, with special emphasis on their interrelationships. Second, we give a structured review of the current controversial discussion on practical issues, opportunities and challenges of these new designs.

Novel trial design: a report from the 19th frontiers symposium of ACCP

Novel approaches to drug development along with incentives to reward risk undertaken during early drug development have been proposed to improve the medical product development process. The American College of Clinical Pharmacology held its 19th Frontiers Symposium in mid-2007 to provide a forum to share new knowledge about disease progression models and adaptive and other novel trial designs. These topics reflect the changing paradigm of drug development and regulatory innovation as outlined in the Food and Drug Administration's Critical Path Initiative. This meeting report summarizes some of the presentations and panel discussions among academic, industrial, and regulatory participants regarding clinical trial design, including adaptive Bayesian approaches.

A brief review of Phase 1 and Clinical Pharmacology statistics in clinical drug development

Following a brief description of historical Phase 1 research, Clinical Pharmacology studies, and the role of statistics in this setting, Phase 1 study design and statistical analysis are reviewed. A description of design and analysis for Clinical Pharmacology studies is also provided, and the role of statistics in this area of drug development in the future is discussed. While challenging, this area of statistics in drug development is likely to have an active and engaging future.

Methodological developments vs. regulatory requirements

This is a discussion of the following three papers appearing in this special issue on adaptive designs: 'FDA's critical path initiative: A perspective on contributions of biostatistics' by Robert T. O'Neill, 'A regulatory view on adaptive/flexible clinical trial design' by H. M. James Hung, Robert T. O'Neill, Sue-Jane Wang and John Lawrence; and 'Confirmatory clinical trials with an adaptive design' by Armin Koch.

Adaptive designs from the viewpoint of an academic biostatistician

This is a discussion of the following three papers appearing in this special issue on adaptive designs: 'FDA's critical path initiative: A perspective on contributions of biostatistics' by Robert T. O'Neill, 'A regulatory view on adaptive/flexible clinical trial design' by H. M. James Hung, Robert T. O'Neill, Sue-Jane Wang and John Lawrence; and 'Confirmatory clinical trials with an adaptive design' by Armin Koch.

Opening the adaptive toolbox

This is a discussion of the following three papers appearing in this special issue on adaptive designs: 'A regulatory view on adaptive/flexible clinical trial design' by H. M. James Hung, Robert T. O'Neill, Sue-Jane Wang and John Lawrence; 'Confirmatory clinical trials with an adaptive design' by Armin Koch; and 'FDA's critical path initiative: A perspective on contributions of biostatistics' by Robert T. O'Neill.

Challenges in implementing adaptive designs: comments on the viewpoints expressed by regulatory statisticians

This is a discussion of the following three papers appearing in this special issue on adaptive designs: 'FDA's critical path initiative: A perspective on contributions of biostatistics' by Robert T. O'Neill; 'A regulatory view on adaptive/flexible clinical trial design' by H. M. James Hung, Robert T. O'Neill, Sue-Jane Wang and John Lawrence; and 'Confirmatory clinical trials with an adaptive design' by Armin Koch.