Conceptualizing ecosystem tipping points within a physiological framework

Incorporating otolith-isotope inferred field metabolic rate into conservation strategies

Fluctuating ocean conditions are rearranging whole networks of marine communities-from individual-level physiological thresholds to ecosystem function. Physiological studies support predictions from individual-level responses (biochemical, cellular, tissue, respiratory potential) based on laboratory experiments. The otolith-isotope method of recovering field metabolic rate has recently filled a gap for the bony fishes, linking otolith stable isotope composition to in situ oxygen consumption and experienced temperature estimates. Here, we review the otolith-isotope method focusing on the biochemical and physiological processes that yield estimates of field metabolic rate. We identify a multidisciplinary pathway in the application of this method, providing concrete research goals (field, modeling) aimed at linking individual-level physiological data to higher levels of biological organization. We hope that this review will provide researchers with a transdisciplinary 'roadmap', guiding the use of the otolith-isotope method to bridge the gap between individual-level physiology, observational field studies, and modeling efforts, while ensuring that in situ data is central in marine policy-making aimed at mitigating climatic and anthropogenic threats.

Functional diversity and metabolic response in benthic communities along an ocean acidification gradient

Altered ocean chemistry caused by ocean acidification (OA) is expected to have negative repercussions at different levels of the ecological hierarchy, starting from the individual and scaling up to the community and ultimately to the ecosystem level. Understanding the effects of OA on benthic organisms is of primary importance given their relevant ecological role in maintaining marine ecosystem functioning. The use of functional traits represents an effective technique to investigate how species adapt to altered environmental conditions and can be used to predict changes in the resilience of communities faced with stresses associated with climate change. Artificial supports were deployed for 1-y along a natural pH gradient in the shallow hydrothermal systems of the Bottaro crater near Panarea (Aeolian Archipelago, southern Tyrrhenian Sea), to explore changes in functional traits and metabolic rates of benthic communities and the repercussions in terms of functional diversity. Changes in community composition due to OA were accompanied by modifications in functional diversity. Altered conditions led to higher oxygen consumption in the acidified site and the selection of species with the functional traits needed to withstand OA. Calcification rate and reproduction were found to be the traits most affected by pH variations. A reduction in a community's functional evenness could potentially reduce its resilience to further environmental or anthropogenic stressors. These findings highlight the ability of the ecosystem to respond to climate change and provide insights into the modifications that can be expected given the predicted future pCO2 scenarios. Understanding the impact of climate change on functional diversity and thus on community functioning and stability is crucial if we are to predict changes in ecosystem vulnerability, especially in a context where OA occurs in combination with other environmental changes and anthropogenic stressors.

Predicting effects of multiple interacting global change drivers across trophic levels

Global change encompasses many co-occurring anthropogenic drivers, which can act synergistically or antagonistically on ecological systems. Predicting how different global change drivers simultaneously contribute to observed biodiversity change is a key challenge for ecology and conservation. However, we lack the mechanistic understanding of how multiple global change drivers influence the vital rates of multiple interacting species. We propose that reaction norms, the relationships between a driver and vital rates like growth, mortality, and consumption, provide insights to the underlying mechanisms of community responses to multiple drivers. Understanding how multiple drivers interact to affect demographic rates using a reaction-norm perspective can improve our ability to make predictions of interactions at higher levels of organization-that is, community and food web. Building on the framework of consumer-resource interactions and widely studied thermal performance curves, we illustrate how joint driver impacts can be scaled up from the population to the community level. A simple proof-of-concept model demonstrates how reaction norms of vital rates predict the prevalence of driver interactions at the community level. A literature search suggests that our proposed approach is not yet used in multiple driver research. We outline how realistic response surfaces (i.e., multidimensional reaction norms) can be inferred by parametric and nonparametric approaches. Response surfaces have the potential to strengthen our understanding of how multiple drivers affect communities as well as improve our ability to predict when interactive effects emerge, two of the major challenges of ecology today.

Perceived multiple stressor effects depend on sample size and stressor gradient length

Multiple stressors are continuously deteriorating surface waters worldwide, posing many challenges for their conservation and restoration. Combined effect types of multiple stressors range from single-stressor dominance to complex interactions. Identifying prevalent combined effect types is critical for environmental management, as it helps to prioritise key stressors for mitigation. However, it remains unclear whether observed single and combined stressor effects reflect true ecological processes unbiased by sample size and length of stressor gradients. Therefore, we examined the role of sample size and stressor gradient lengths in 158 paired-stressor response cases with over 120,000 samples from rivers, lakes, transitional and marine ecosystems around the world. For each case, we split the overall stressor gradient into two partial gradients (lower and upper) and investigated associated changes in single and combined stressor effects. Sample size influenced the identified combined effect types, and stressor interactions were less likely for cases with fewer samples. After splitting gradients, 40 % of cases showed a change in combined effect type, 30 % no change, and 31 % showed a loss in stressor effects. These findings suggest that identified combined effect types may often be statistical artefacts rather than representing ecological processes. In 58 % of cases, we observed changes in stressor effect directions after the gradient split, suggesting unimodal stressor effects. In general, such non-linear responses were more pronounced for organisms at higher trophic levels. We conclude that observed multiple stressor effects are not solely determined by ecological processes, but also strongly depend on sampling design. Observed effects are likely to change when sample size and/or gradient length are modified. Our study highlights the need for improved monitoring programmes with sufficient sample size and stressor gradient coverage. Our findings emphasize the importance of adaptive management, as stress reduction measures or further ecosystem degradation may change multiple stressor-effect relationships, which will then require associated changes in management strategies.

Interactive effects of anthropogenic environmental drivers on endocrine responses in wildlife

Anthropogenic activity has created unique environmental drivers, which may interact to produce unexpected effects. My aim was to conduct a systematic review of the interactive effects of anthropogenic drivers on endocrine responses in non-human animals. The interaction between temperature and light can disrupt reproduction and growth by impacting gonadotropins, thyroid hormones, melatonin, and growth hormone. Temperature and endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) interact to modify reproduction with differential effects across generations. The combined effects of light and EDCs can be anxiogenic, so that light-at-night could increase anxiety in wildlife. Light and noise increase glucocorticoid release by themselves, and together can modify interactions between individuals and their environment. The literature detailing interactions between drivers is relatively sparse and there is a need to extend research to a broader range of taxa and interactions. I suggest that incorporating endocrine responses into Adverse Outcome Pathways would be beneficial to improve predictions of environmental effects.

Emergent effects of global change on consumption depend on consumers and their resources in marine systems

Understanding the effects of global change on species interactions is important for predicting emergent ecosystem changes. Although environmental change can have direct effects on consumers, it is unclear if consumption will change in any generalizable way when both the consumer and resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Using meta-analysis, we show high variability in consumption rates in response to ocean acidification and warming, indicating conclusions that suggest consumption will generally increase or decrease in a future ocean are premature. We also demonstrate how the interpretation is dependent on whether only the consumer or both the consumer and its resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Based on these findings, we provide a road map for future research in this area.

A better understanding of how environmental change will affect species interactions would significantly aid efforts to scale up predictions of near-future responses to global change from individuals to ecosystems. To address this need, we used meta-analysis to quantify the individual and combined effects of ocean acidification (OA) and warming on consumption rates of predators and herbivores in marine ecosystems. Although the primary studies demonstrated that these environmental variables can have direct effects on consumers, our analyses highlight high variability in consumption rates in response to OA and warming. This variability likely reflects differences in local adaptation among species, as well as important methodological differences. For example, our results suggest that exposure of consumers to OA reduces consumption rates on average, yet consumption rates actually increase when both consumers and their resource(s) are concurrently exposed to the same conditions. We hypothesize that this disparity is due to increased vulnerability of prey or resource(s) in conditions of OA that offset declines in consumption. This hypothesis is supported by an analysis demonstrating clear declines in prey survival in studies that exposed only prey to future OA conditions. Our results illustrate how simultaneous OA and warming produce complex outcomes when species interact. Researchers should further explore other potential sources of variation in response, as well as the prey-driven component of any changes in consumption and the potential for interactive effects of OA and warming.

Coupled changes in pH, temperature, and dissolved oxygen impact the physiology and ecology of herbivorous kelp forest grazers

Understanding species' responses to upwelling may be especially important in light of ongoing environmental change. Upwelling frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the future, while ocean acidification and deoxygenation are expected to decrease the pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) of upwelled waters. However, the acute effects of a single upwelling event and the integrated effects of multiple upwelling events on marine organisms are poorly understood. Here, we use in situ measurements of pH, temperature, and DO to characterize the covariance of environmental conditions within upwelling-dominated kelp forest ecosystems. We then test the effects of acute (0-3 days) and chronic (1-3 months) upwelling on the performance of two species of kelp forest grazers, the echinoderm, Mesocentrotus franciscanus, and the gastropod, Promartynia pulligo. We exposed organisms to static conditions in a regression design to determine the shape of the relationship between upwelling and performance and provide insights into the potential effects in a variable environment. We found that respiration, grazing, growth, and net calcification decline linearly with increasing upwelling intensity for M. francicanus over both acute and chronic timescales. Promartynia pulligo exhibited decreased respiration, grazing, and net calcification with increased upwelling intensity after chronic exposure, but we did not detect an effect over acute timescales or on growth after chronic exposure. Given the highly correlated nature of pH, temperature, and DO in the California Current, our results suggest the relationship between upwelling intensity and growth in the 3-month trial could potentially be used to estimate growth integrated over long-term dynamic oceanographic conditions for M. franciscanus. Together, these results indicate current exposure to upwelling may reduce species performance and predicted future increases in upwelling frequency and intensity could affect ecosystem function by modifying the ecological roles of key species.

Photo-acclimatory thresholds anticipate sudden shifts in seagrass ecosystem state under reduced light conditions

Seagrass ecosystems usually respond in a nonlinear fashion to increasing pressures and environmental changes. Feedback mechanisms operating at the ecosystem level and involving multiple interactions among the seagrass meadow, its associated community and the physical environment are known to play a major role in such nonlinear responses. Phenotypic plasticity may also be important for buffering these ecological thresholds (i.e., regime shifts) as many physiological processes show nonlinear responses to gradual environmental changes, conferring the appearance of resistance before the effects at the organism and population levels are visible. However, the potential involvement of plant plasticity in driving catastrophic shifts in seagrass ecosystems has not yet been assessed. In this study, we conducted a manipulative 6-month light-gradient experiment in the field to capture nonlinearities of the physiological and population responses of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa to gradual light reduction. The aim was to explore if and how the photo-acclimatory responses of shaded plants are translated to the population level and, hence, to the ecosystem level. Results showed that the seagrass population was rather stable under increasing shading levels through the activation of multilevel photo-acclimative responses, which are initiated with light reduction and modulated in proportion to shading intensity. The activation of photo-physiological and metabolic compensatory responses allowed shaded plants to sustain nearly constant plant productivity (metabolic carbon balance) along a range of shading levels before losing linearity and starting to decline. The species then activated plant- and meadow-scale photo-acclimative responses and drew on its energy reserves (rhizome carbohydrates) to confer additional population resilience. However, when the integration of all these buffering mechanisms failed to counterbalance the effects of extreme light limitation, the population collapsed, giving place to a phase shift from vegetated to bare sediments with catastrophic ecosystem outcomes. Our findings evidence that ecological thresholds in seagrass ecosystems under light limitation can be explained by the role of species' compensatory responses in modulating population-level responses. The thresholds of these plastic responses anticipate the sudden loss of seagrass meadows with the potential to be used as early warning indicators signalling the imminent collapse of the ecosystem, which is of great value for the real-world management of seagrass ecosystems.

Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean

Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems.

Effects of microplastics on the functional traits of aquatic benthic organisms: A global-scale meta-analysis

Microplastics are widespread in the aquatic environment and thus available for many organisms at different trophic levels. Many scientific papers focus their attention on the study of the effects of microplastics on different species at individual level. Here we performed a global scale meta-analysis focusing our work on the study of the effect of microplastics on the functional traits of aquatic benthic organisms. Overall, microplastics showed a moderate negative effect on the examined functional traits of benthic organisms. Our results show that some crucial functional traits, such as those linked to behaviour and feeding, appear to be unaffected by microplastics. In contrast, traits related to the capacity of organisms to assimilate energy are affected. Moreover, traits with possible effects at population level appear to be negatively affected by microplastics. We discuss how the direct impact of organismal performance may have indirect repercussions at higher levels in the ecological hierarchy and represent a risk for the stability and functioning of the ecosystem.

The entangled multi-level responses of Mytilus galloprovincialis (Lamarck, 1819) to environmental stressors as detected by an integrated approach

Anthropogenic pressure adds up and interacts with the effects of climate change with a varying magnitude and potential changes depend on species' Life History (LH) traits, local environmental conditions and co-occurrence of several stressors. Stressors exert negative effects on marine biota when acting as a single factor, but the effects may be amplified when more than one stressor work in combination, producing interacting effects on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The impairment of individual functional traits (FT) leads to strong rebounds on LH traits and this may have ecological consequences. No studies actually relate FT and antioxidant enzymes to multiple environmental stressors. In this paper we investigate the effects of food concentration, temperature and hypoxia on metabolic traits as expressed by a proxy such as respiration rate and feeding behaviour and on antioxidant enzymes (Catalase, Superoxide dismutase, Glutathione S-Transferase, Glutathione peroxidase) for the bivalve Mytilus galloprovincialis. Mussels were exposed to three temperatures (12, 20 and 28 °C) under normoxic (8 mg O₂ l^-1) and hypoxic (~2 mg O₂ l^-1) conditions, with varying food concentrations ranging from 0.9 to 3.5 μg of chlorophyll l^-1. The results show that FTs and antioxidant enzymes were affected by temperature, hypoxia and food availability, and outcome allowed us to emphasise that a multi-scalar integrated approach is suitable to detect and monitor effects of anthropogenic disturbance on ecosystem functioning.

Survived but not safe: Marine heatwave hinders metabolism in two gastropod survivors

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are an emerging threat to marine organisms that have increased in frequency and magnitude in the past decade. These extreme heating events can have differential impacts on organisms with some experiencing mortality while others survive. Here, we experimentally exposed two species of subtidal gastropod (Trochus sacellum and Astralium haematragum) to two realistic intensities of MHW to test the ability of different species to physiologically cope with extreme heating events. Extreme MHW conditions caused 100% mortality in both species within five days. While both species survived under moderate MHW conditions they showed evidence of nonadaptive metabolic depression. Both species demonstrated an inability to upregulate their metabolic rates at the higher temperatures following exposure to a MHW (i.e. reduced temperature of maximum metabolic rate; T_MMR), suggesting a lack of molecular protective responses and ongoing physiological damage. Therefore, the physiological damage endured by heatwave survivors may lessen their ability to cope with subsequent stress until fully recovered. Repairing this damage may have serious repercussions for the rate of recovery of these normally resilient species and their ability to maintain their ecological functions post MHW, especially under the predicted increasing frequency, duration and magnitude of MHWs.

Trophic pyramids reorganize when food web architecture fails to adjust to ocean change

As human activities intensify, the structures of ecosystems and their food webs often reorganize. Through the study of mesocosms harboring a diverse benthic coastal community, we reveal that food web architecture can be inflexible under ocean warming and acidification and unable to compensate for the decline or proliferation of taxa. Key stabilizing processes, including functional redundancy, trophic compensation, and species substitution, were largely absent under future climate conditions. A trophic pyramid emerged in which biomass expanded at the base and top but contracted in the center. This structure may characterize a transitionary state before collapse into shortened, bottom-heavy food webs that characterize ecosystems subject to persistent abiotic stress. We show that where food web architecture lacks adjustability, the adaptive capacity of ecosystems to global change is weak and ecosystem degradation likely.

High predictability of direct competition between marine diatoms under different temperatures and nutrient states

The distribution of marine phytoplankton will shift alongside changes in marine environments, leading to altered species frequencies and community composition. An understanding of the response of mixed populations to abiotic changes is required to adequately predict how environmental change may affect the future composition of phytoplankton communities. This study investigated the growth and competitive ability of two marine diatoms, Phaeodactylum tricornutum and Thalassiosira pseudonana, along a temperature gradient (9-35°C) spanning the thermal niches of both species under both high-nitrogen nutrient-replete and low-nitrogen nutrient-limited conditions. Across this temperature gradient, the competitive outcome under both nutrient conditions at any assay temperature, and the critical temperature at which competitive advantage shifted from one species to the other, was well predicted by the temperature dependencies of the growth rates of the two species measured in monocultures. The temperature at which the competitive advantage switched from P. tricornutum to T. pseudonana increased from 18.8°C under replete conditions to 25.3°C under nutrient-limited conditions. Thus, P. tricornutum was a better competitor over a wider temperature range in a low N environment. Being able to determine the competitive outcomes from physiological responses of single species to environmental changes has the potential to significantly improve the predictive power of phytoplankton spatial distribution and community composition models.

Biodiversity mediates the effects of stressors but not nutrients on litter decomposition

Understanding the consequences of ongoing biodiversity changes for ecosystems is a pressing challenge. Controlled biodiversity-ecosystem function experiments with random biodiversity loss scenarios have demonstrated that more diverse communities usually provide higher levels of ecosystem functioning. However, it is not clear if these results predict the ecosystem consequences of environmental changes that cause non-random alterations in biodiversity and community composition. We synthesized 69 independent studies reporting 660 observations of the impacts of two pervasive drivers of global change (chemical stressors and nutrient enrichment) on animal and microbial decomposer diversity and litter decomposition. Using meta-analysis and structural equation modeling, we show that declines in decomposer diversity and abundance explain reduced litter decomposition in response to stressors but not to nutrients. While chemical stressors generally reduced biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, detrimental effects of nutrients occurred only at high levels of nutrient inputs. Thus, more intense environmental change does not always result in stronger responses, illustrating the complexity of ecosystem consequences of biodiversity change. Overall, these findings provide strong evidence that the consequences of observed biodiversity change for ecosystems depend on the kind of environmental change, and are especially significant when human activities decrease biodiversity.

Climate change rapidly warms and acidifies Australian estuaries

Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide. Estuaries are diverse and important aquatic ecosystems; and yet until now we have lacked information on the response of estuaries to climate change. Here we present data from a twelve-year monitoring program, involving 6200 observations of 166 estuaries along >1100 kilometres of the Australian coastline encompassing all estuary morphologies. Estuary temperatures increased by 2.16 °C on average over 12 years, at a rate of 0.2 °C year^-1, with waters acidifying at a rate of 0.09 pH units and freshening at 0.086 PSU year^-1. The response of estuaries to climate change is dependent on their morphology. Lagoons and rivers are warming and acidifying at the fastest rate because of shallow average depths and limited oceanic exchange. The changes measured are an order of magnitude faster than predicted by global ocean and atmospheric models, indicating that existing global models may not be useful to predict change in estuaries.

Ecological change in dynamic environments: Accounting for temporal environmental variability in studies of ocean change biology

The environmental conditions in the ocean have long been considered relatively more stable through time compared to the conditions on land. Advances in sensing technologies, however, are increasingly revealing substantial fluctuations in abiotic factors over ecologically and evolutionarily relevant timescales in the ocean, leading to a growing recognition of the dynamism of the marine environment as well as new questions about how this dynamism may influence species' vulnerability to global environmental change. In some instances, the diurnal or seasonal variability in major environmental change drivers, such as temperature, pH and seawater carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen, can exceed the changes expected with continued anthropogenic global change. While ocean global change biologists have begun to experimentally test how variability in environmental conditions mediates species' responses to changes in the mean, the extensive literature on species' adaptations to temporal variability in their environment and the implications of this variability for their evolutionary responses has not been well integrated into the field. Here, we review the physiological mechanisms underlying species' responses to changes in temperature, pCO₂ /pH (and other carbonate parameters), and dissolved oxygen, and discuss what is known about behavioral, plastic, and evolutionary strategies for dealing with variable environments. In addition, we discuss how exposure to variability may influence species' responses to changes in the mean conditions and highlight key research needs for ocean global change biology.

Functional loss in herbivores drives runaway expansion of weedy algae in a near-future ocean

The ability of a community to absorb environmental change without undergoing structural modification is a hallmark of ecological resistance. The recognition that species interactions can stabilize community processes has led to the idea that the effects of climate change may be less than what most considerations currently allow. We tested whether herbivory can compensate for the expansion of weedy algae triggered by CO₂ enrichment and warming. Using a six-month mesocosm experiment, we show that increasing per capita herbivory by gastropods absorbs the boosted effects of CO₂ enrichment on algal production in temperate systems of weak to moderate herbivory. However, under the combined effects of acidification and warming this compensatory effect was eroded by reducing the diversity, density and biomass of herbivores. This loss of functionality combined with boosted primary productivity drove a fourfold expansion of weedy algal species. Our results demonstrate capacity to buffer ecosystems against CO₂ enrichment, but loss of this capacity through ocean warming either in isolation or combined with CO₂, driving significant algal turf expansion. Identifying compensatory processes and the circumstances under which they prevail could potentially help manage the impacts of ocean warming and acidification, which are further amplified by local disturbances such as habitat loss and herbivore over-exploitation.

Descriptive Analysis of the Interactive Patterning of the Vocalization Subsystems in Healthy Participants: A Dynamic Systems Perspective

Purpose Normative data for many objective voice measures are routinely used in clinical voice assessment; however, normative data reflect vocal output, but not vocalization process. The underlying physiologic processes of healthy phonation have been shown to be nonlinear and thus are likely different across individuals. Dynamic systems theory postulates that performance behaviors emerge from the nonlinear interplay of multiple physiologic components and that certain patterns are preferred and loosely governed by the interactions of physiology, task, and environment. The purpose of this study was to descriptively characterize the interactive nature of the vocalization subsystem triad in subjects with healthy voices and to determine if differing subgroups could be delineated to better understand how healthy voicing is physiologically generated. Method Respiratory kinematic, aerodynamic, and acoustic formant data were obtained from 29 individuals with healthy voices (21 female and eight male). Multivariate analyses were used to descriptively characterize the interactions among the subsystems that contributed to healthy voicing. Results Group data revealed representative measures of the 3 subsystems to be generally within the boundaries of established normative data. Despite this, 3 distinct clusters were delineated that represented 3 subgroups of individuals with differing subsystem patterning. Seven of the 9 measured variables in this study were found to be significantly different across at least 1 of the 3 subgroups indicating differing physiologic processes across individuals. Conclusion Vocal output in healthy individuals appears to be generated by distinct and preferred physiologic processes that were represented by 3 subgroups indicating that the process of vocalization is different among individuals, but not entirely idiosyncratic. Possibilities for these differences are explored using the framework of dynamic systems theory and the dynamics of emergent behaviors. A revised physiologic model of phonation that accounts for differences within and among the vocalization subsystems is described. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.7616462.

Combined effects of warming and nutrients on marine communities are moderated by predators and vary across functional groups

Warming, nutrient enrichment and biodiversity modification are among the most pervasive components of human-induced global environmental change. We know little about their cumulative effects on ecosystems; however, even though this knowledge is fundamental to predicting and managing their consequences in a changing world. Here, we show that shifts in predator species composition can moderate both the individual and combined effects of warming and nutrient enrichment in marine systems. However, all three aspects of global change also acted independently to alter different functional groups in our flow-through marine rock-pool mesocosms. Specifically, warming reduced macroalgal biomass and assemblage productivity, whereas enrichment led to increased abundance of meso-invertebrate consumers, and loss of predator species led to increased gastropod grazer biomass. This disparity in responses, both across trophic levels (macroalgae and intermediate consumers), and between detecting additive effects on aggregate measures of ecosystem functioning, yet interactive effects on community composition, illustrates that our forecasting ability depends strongly on the level of ecological complexity incorporated within global change experiments. We conclude that biodiversity change-and loss of predator species in particular-plays a critical and overarching role in determining how ecological communities respond to stressors.

Applicability of Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models across steep environmental gradients

Robust ecological forecasting requires accurate predictions of physiological responses to environmental drivers. Energy budget models facilitate this by mechanistically linking biology to abiotic drivers, but are usually ground-truthed under relatively stable physical conditions, omitting temporal/spatial environmental variability. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is a powerful framework capable of linking individual fitness to environmental drivers and we tested its ability to accommodate variability by examining model predictions across the rocky shore, a steep ecotone characterized by wide fluctuations in temperature and food availability. We parameterized DEB models for co-existing mid/high-shore (Mytilus galloprovincialis) and mid/low-shore (Perna perna) mussels on the south coast of South Africa. First, we assumed permanently submerged conditions, and then incorporated metabolic depression under low tide conditions, using detailed data of tidal cycles, body temperature and variability in food over 12 months at three sites. Models provided good estimates of shell length for both species across the shore, but predictions of gonadosomatic index were consistently lower than observed. Model disagreement could reflect the effects of details of biology and/or difficulties in capturing environmental variability, emphasising the need to incorporate both. Our approach provides guidelines for incorporating environmental variability and long-term change into mechanistic models to improve ecological predictions.

The duality of ocean acidification as a resource and a stressor

Ecologically dominant species often define ecosystem states, but as human disturbances intensify, their subordinate counterparts increasingly displace them. We consider the duality of disturbance by examining how environmental drivers can simultaneously act as a stressor to dominant species and as a resource to subordinates. Using a model ecosystem, we demonstrate that CO2 -driven interactions between species can account for such reversals in dominance; i.e., the displacement of dominants (kelp forests) by subordinates (turf algae). We established that CO2 enrichment had a direct positive effect on productivity of turfs, but a negligible effect on kelp. CO2 enrichment further suppressed the abundance and feeding rate of the primary grazer of turfs (sea urchins), but had an opposite effect on the minor grazer (gastropods). Thus, boosted production of subordinate producers, exacerbated by a net reduction in its consumption by primary grazers, accounts for community change (i.e., turf displacing kelp). Ecosystem collapse, therefore, is more likely when resource enrichment alters competitive dominance of producers, and consumers fail to compensate. By recognizing such duality in the responses of interacting species to disturbance, which may stabilize or exacerbate change, we can begin to understand how intensifying human disturbances determine whether or not ecosystems undergo phase shifts.

Conceptualizing ecosystem tipping points within a physiological framework

Connecting the nonlinear and often counterintuitive physiological effects of multiple environmental drivers to the emergent impacts on ecosystems is a fundamental challenge. Unfortunately, the disconnect between the way "stressors" (e.g., warming) is considered in organismal (physiological) and ecological (community) contexts continues to hamper progress. Environmental drivers typically elicit biphasic physiological responses, where performance declines at levels above and below some optimum. It is also well understood that species exhibit highly variable response surfaces to these changes so that the optimum level of any environmental driver can vary among interacting species. Thus, species interactions are unlikely to go unaltered under environmental change. However, while these nonlinear, species-specific physiological relationships between environment and performance appear to be general, rarely are they incorporated into predictions of ecological tipping points. Instead, most ecosystem-level studies focus on varying levels of "stress" and frequently assume that any deviation from "normal" environmental conditions has similar effects, albeit with different magnitudes, on all of the species within a community. We consider a framework that realigns the positive and negative physiological effects of changes in climatic and nonclimatic drivers with indirect ecological responses. Using a series of simple models based on direct physiological responses to temperature and ocean pCO 2, we explore how variation in environment-performance relationships among primary producers and consumers translates into community-level effects via trophic interactions. These models show that even in the absence of direct mortality, mismatched responses resulting from often subtle changes in the physical environment can lead to substantial ecosystem-level change.