Give chance a chance: from coexistence to coviability in biodiversity theory

Life history is a key driver of temporal fluctuations in tropical tree abundances

The question of what mechanisms maintain tropical biodiversity is a critical frontier in ecology, intensified by the heightened risk of biodiversity loss faced in tropical regions. Ecological theory has shed light on multiple mechanisms that could lead to the high levels of biodiversity in tropical forests. But variation in species abundances over time may be just as important as overall biodiversity, with a more immediate connection to the risk of extirpation and biodiversity loss. Despite the urgency, our understanding of the primary mechanisms driving fluctuations in species abundances has not been clearly established. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework based around life history; the schedule of birth, growth, and mortality over a lifespan, and its systematic variation across species. We develop a mean field model to predict expected fluctuations in abundance for a focal species in a larger community, and we quantify empirical life history variation among 90 tropical forest species in a 50 ha plot in Panama. Putting theory and data together, we show that life history provides a critical piece of this puzzle, allowing us to explain patterns of abundance fluctuations more accurately than previous models incorporating demographic stochasticity without life history variation, and without introducing unobserved couplings between species and their environment. This framework provides a starting point for more general models that incorporate multiple factors in addition to life history variation, and suggests the potential for a fine-grained assessment of extirpation risk based on the impacts of anthropogenic change on demographic rates across life stages.

Aligning spatial ecological theory with the study of clonal organisms: the case of fungal coexistence

Established ecological theory has focused on unitary organisms, and thus its concepts have matured into a form that often hinders rather than facilitates the ecological study of modular organisms. Here, we use the example of filamentous fungi to develop concepts that enable integration of non-unitary (modular) organisms into the established community ecology theory, with particular focus on its spatial aspects. In doing so, we provide a link between fungal community ecology and modern coexistence theory (MCT). We first show how community processes and predictions made by MCT can be used to define meaningful scales in fungal ecology. This leads to the novel concept of the unit of community interactions (UCI), a promising conceptual tool for applying MCT to communities of modular organisms with indeterminate clonal growth and hierarchical individuality. We outline plausible coexistence mechanisms structuring fungal communities, and show at what spatial scales and in what habitats they are most likely to act. We end by describing challenges and opportunities for empirical and theoretical research in fungal competitive coexistence.

Consequences of Local Conspecific Density Effects for Plant Diversity and Community Dynamics

Conspecific density dependence (CDD) in plant populations is widespread, most likely caused by local-scale biotic interactions, and has potentially important implications for biodiversity, community composition, and ecosystem processes. However, progress in this important area of ecology has been hindered by differing viewpoints on CDD across subfields in ecology, lack of synthesis across CDD-related frameworks, and misunderstandings about how empirical measurements of local CDD fit within the context of broader ecological theories on community assembly and diversity maintenance. Here, we propose a conceptual synthesis of local-scale CDD and its causes, including species-specific antagonistic and mutualistic interactions. First, we compare and clarify different uses of CDD and related concepts across subfields within ecology. We suggest the use of local stabilizing/destabilizing CDD to refer to the scenario where local conspecific density effects are more negative/positive than heterospecific effects. Second, we discuss different mechanisms for local stabilizing and destabilizing CDD, how those mechanisms are interrelated, and how they cut across several fields of study within ecology. Third, we place local stabilizing/destabilizing CDD within the context of broader ecological theories and discuss implications and challenges related to scaling up the effects of local CDD on populations, communities, and metacommunities. The ultimate goal of this synthesis is to provide a conceptual roadmap for researchers studying local CDD and its implications for population and community dynamics.

Individual energetics scale up to community coexistence: Movement, metabolism and biodiversity dynamics in fragmented landscapes

Unravelling the intricate mechanisms that govern community coexistence remains a daunting challenge, particularly amidst ongoing environmental change. Individual physiology and metabolism are often studied to understand the response of individual animals to environmental change. However, this perspective is currently largely lacking in community ecology. We argue that the integration of individual metabolism into community theory can offer new insights into coexistence. We present the first individual-based metabolic community model for a terrestrial mammal community to simulate energy dynamics and home range behaviour in different environments. Using this model, we investigate how ecologically similar species coexist and maintain their energy balance under food competition. Only if individuals of different species are able to balance their incoming and outgoing energy over the long-term will they be able to coexist. After thoroughly testing and validating the model against real-world patterns such as of home range dynamics and field metabolic rates, we applied it as a case study to scenarios of habitat fragmentation - a widely discussed topic in biodiversity research. First, comparing single-species simulations with community simulations, we find that the effect of habitat fragmentation on populations is strongly context-dependent. While populations of species living alone in the landscape were mostly positively affected by fragmentation, the diversity of a community of species was highest under medium fragmentation scenarios. Under medium fragmentation, energy balance and reproductive investment were also most similar among species. We therefore suggest that similarity in energy balance among species promotes coexistence. We argue that energetics should be part of community ecology theory, as the relative energetic status and reproductive investment can reveal why and under what environmental conditions coexistence is likely to occur. As a result, landscapes can potentially be protected and designed to maximize coexistence. The metabolic community model presented here can be a promising tool to investigate other scenarios of environmental change or other species communities to further disentangle global change effects and preserve biodiversity.

Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence

Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval.

Stabilizing microbial communities by looped mass transfer

Building and changing a microbiome at will and maintaining it over hundreds of generations has so far proven challenging. Despite best efforts, complex microbiomes appear to be susceptible to large stochastic fluctuations. Current capabilities to assemble and control stable complex microbiomes are limited. Here, we propose a looped mass transfer design that stabilizes microbiomes over long periods of time. Five local microbiomes were continuously grown in parallel for over 114 generations and connected by a loop to a regional pool. Mass transfer rates were altered and microbiome dynamics were monitored using quantitative high-throughput flow cytometry and taxonomic sequencing of whole communities and sorted subcommunities. Increased mass transfer rates reduced local and temporal variation in microbiome assembly, did not affect functions, and overcame stochasticity, with all microbiomes exhibiting high constancy and increasing resistance. Mass transfer synchronized the structures of the five local microbiomes and nestedness of certain cell types was eminent. Mass transfer increased cell number and thus decreased net growth rates μ′. Subsets of cells that did not show net growth μ′SCx were rescued by the regional pool R and thus remained part of the microbiome. The loop in mass transfer ensured the survival of cells that would otherwise go extinct, even if they did not grow in all local microbiomes or grew more slowly than the actual dilution rate D would allow. The rescue effect, known from metacommunity theory, was the main stabilizing mechanism leading to synchrony and survival of subcommunities, despite differences in cell physiological properties, including growth rates.

Understanding evolutionary and ecological dynamics using a continuum limit

Continuum limits in the form of stochastic differential equations are typically used in theoretical population genetics to account for genetic drift or more generally, inherent randomness of the model. In evolutionary game theory and theoretical ecology, however, this method is used less frequently to study demographic stochasticity. Here, we review the use of continuum limits in ecology and evolution. Starting with an individual-based model, we derive a large population size limit, a (stochastic) differential equation which is called continuum limit. By example of the Wright-Fisher diffusion, we outline how to compute the stationary distribution, the fixation probability of a certain type, and the mean extinction time using the continuum limit. In the context of the logistic growth equation, we approximate the quasi-stationary distribution in a finite population.

Is Variation in Conspecific Negative Density Dependence Driving Tree Diversity Patterns at Large Scales?

Half a century ago, Janzen and Connell hypothesized that the high tree species diversity in tropical forests is maintained by specialized natural enemies. Along with other mechanisms, these can cause conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) and thus maintain species diversity. Numerous studies have measured proxies of CNDD worldwide, but doubt about its relative importance remains. We find ample evidence for CNDD in local populations, but methodological limitations make it difficult to assess if CNDD scales up to control community diversity and thereby local and global biodiversity patterns. A combination of more robust statistical methods, new study designs, and eco-evolutionary models are needed to provide a more definite evaluation of the importance of CNDD for geographic variation in plant species diversity.

Technical Comment on Pande et al. (2020): Why invasion analysis is important for understanding coexistence

Pande et al. (2020) point out that persistence time can decrease even as invader growth rates (IGRs) increase, which potentially undermines modern coexistence theory. However, because persistence time increases rapidly with system size only when IGR > 0, to understand how any real community persists, we should first identify the mechanisms producing positive IGR.

Movement-mediated community assembly and coexistence

Organismal movement is ubiquitous and facilitates important ecological mechanisms that drive community and metacommunity composition and hence biodiversity. In most existing ecological theories and models in biodiversity research, movement is represented simplistically, ignoring the behavioural basis of movement and consequently the variation in behaviour at species and individual levels. However, as human endeavours modify climate and land use, the behavioural processes of organisms in response to these changes, including movement, become critical to understanding the resulting biodiversity loss. Here, we draw together research from different subdisciplines in ecology to understand the impact of individual-level movement processes on community-level patterns in species composition and coexistence. We join the movement ecology framework with the key concepts from metacommunity theory, community assembly and modern coexistence theory using the idea of micro-macro links, where various aspects of emergent movement behaviour scale up to local and regional patterns in species mobility and mobile-link-generated patterns in abiotic and biotic environmental conditions. These in turn influence both individual movement and, at ecological timescales, mechanisms such as dispersal limitation, environmental filtering, and niche partitioning. We conclude by highlighting challenges to and promising future avenues for data generation, data analysis and complementary modelling approaches and provide a brief outlook on how a new behaviour-based view on movement becomes important in understanding the responses of communities under ongoing environmental change.