Climate change and carnivores: shifts in the distribution and effectiveness of protected areas in the Amazon

Background

Carnivore mammals are animals vulnerable to human interference, such as climate change and deforestation. Their distribution and persistence are affected by such impacts, mainly in tropical regions such as the Amazon. Due to the importance of carnivores in the maintenance and functioning of the ecosystem, they are extremely important animals for conservation. We evaluated the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of carnivores in the Amazon using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Do we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What is the effect of climate change on the distribution of carnivores in the Amazon? (2) Will carnivore species lose or gain representation within the Protected Areas (PAs) of the Amazon in the future?

Methods

We evaluated the distribution area of 16 species of carnivores mammals in the Amazon, based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the year 2070. For the construction of the SDMs we used bioclimatic and vegetation cover variables (land type). Based on these models, we calculated the area loss and climate suitability of the species, as well as the effectiveness of the protected areas inserted in the Amazon. We estimated the effectiveness of PAs on the individual persistence of carnivores in the future, for this, we used the SDMs to perform the gap analysis. Finally, we analyze the effectiveness of PAs in protecting taxonomic richness in future scenarios.

Results

The SDMs showed satisfactory predictive performance, with Jaccard values above 0.85 and AUC above 0.91 for all species. In the present and for the future climate scenarios, we observe a reduction of potencial distribution in both future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), where five species will be negatively affected by climate change in the RCP 4.5 future scenario and eight in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The remaining species stay stable in terms of total area. All species in the study showed a loss of climatic suitability. Some species lost almost all climatic suitability in the RCP 8.5 scenario. According to the GAP analysis, all species are protected within the PAs both in the current scenario and in both future climate scenarios. From the null models, we found that in all climate scenarios, the PAs are not efficient in protecting species richness.

Unveiling demographic and mating strategies of Panthera onca in the Pantanal, Brazil

We conducted the first long-term and large-scale study of demographic characteristics and reproductive behavior in a wild jaguar (Panthera onca) population. Data were collected through a combination of direct observations and camera trapping on a study area that operates both as a cattle ranch and ecotourism destination. Jaguars exhibited two birth peaks: April/May and October/November, that are the end and the beginning of the wet season in the Pantanal, respectively. The average litter size was 1.43 ± 0.65. Single cubs made up a total of 65.7% of the births, and we found a slight predominance of females (1.15:1 ratio) in litters. The mean age at independence was 17.6 ± 0.98 months, with sex-biased dispersal, with all males (n = 27) leaving the natal home range and 63.6% of females exhibiting philopatry. The interbirth intervals were 21.8 ± 3.2 months and the mean age at first parturition was 31.8 ± 4.2 months. Our results estimated a lifetime reproductive success for female jaguars of 8.13 cubs. Our observations also indicate that female jaguars can display mating behavior during cub rearing or pregnancy, representing 41.4% of the consorts and copulations recorded. We speculate that this behavior has evolved as a defense against infanticide and physical harm to the female. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such behavior is described for this species. All aggressive interactions between females involved the presence of cubs, following the offspring–defense hypothesis, that lead to territoriality among females in mammals, regardless of food availability. In the face of growing threats to this apex predator, this work unveils several aspects of its natural history, representing a baseline for comparison with future research and providing critical information for population viability analysis and conservation planning in the long term.

Wildfires disproportionately affected jaguars in the Pantanal

The Pantanal wetland harbours the second largest population of jaguars in the world. Alongside climate and land-use changes, the recent mega-fires in the Pantanal may pose a threat to the jaguars' long-term survival. To put these growing threats into perspective, we addressed the reach and intensity of fires that have affected jaguar conservation in the Pantanal ecoregion over the last 16 years. The 2020 fires were the most severe in the annual series, burned 31% of the Pantanal and affected 45% of the estimated jaguar population (87% of these in Brazil); 79% of the home range areas, and 54% of the protected areas within home ranges. Fires consumed core habitats and injured several jaguars, the Pantanal's apex predator. Displacement, hunger, dehydration, territorial defence, and lower fecundity are among the impacts that may affect the abundance of the species. These impacts are likely to affect other less mobile species and, therefore, the ecological stability of the region. A solution to prevent the recurrence of mega-fires lies in combating the anthropogenic causes that intensify drought conditions, such as implementing actions to protect springs, increasing the number and area of protected areas, regulating fire use, and allocating fire brigades before dry seasons.

Collaborative behaviour and coalitions in male jaguars (Panthera onca)—evidence and comparison with other felids

Abstract

Most large felids are classified as solitary species, with only lions (Panthera leo) and cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) exhibiting social, collaborative behaviours. Herein, we present evidence of the formation of male coalitions by jaguars (Panthera onca), based on data from five studies conducted with camera trapping, GPS telemetry, and direct observations in the Venezuelan Llanos and Brazilian Pantanal. Out of 7062 male records obtained with camera traps or visual observations, we detected 105 cases of male-male interactions, of which we classified 18 as aggression, nine as tolerance, 70 as cooperation/coalition, and eight as unidentified. In two studies, two male jaguars formed stable coalitions lasting over 7 years each. In the Llanos, each coalition male paired and mated with several females. For male jaguar coalitions, we documented similar behaviours as recorded earlier in lions or cheetahs, which included patrolling and marking territory together, invading territories of other males, collaborative chasing and killing other jaguars, and sharing prey. However, different from lions or cheetahs, associated male jaguars spent less time together, did not cooperate with females, and did not hunt cooperatively together. Our analysis of literature suggested that male jaguar coalitions were more likely to form when females had small home range size, a proxy of females’ concentration, while in lions, the male group size was directly correlated with the female group size. Similarly, locally concentrated access to females may drive formation of male coalitions in cheetahs. We conclude that high biomass and aggregation of prey are likely drivers of sociality in felids.

Significance statement

The division into social and solitary species in large felids has so far seemed unambiguous, with only lions and cheetahs classified as social species, in which male coalitions also occurred. Our data show that, under certain conditions, male coalitions may also form in jaguar populations. Factors that drive formation of male coalitions in lions and cheetahs, but not in other species of large cats, have not been clear until now. Our analyses indicate that in jaguars, lions, and cheetahs, the concentration of females likely plays the most important role. In jaguars, the probability of male coalition occurrence is highest in populations with the smallest mean female home range size (and thus likely high local density of females), while in lions, male group size is most strongly correlated with female group size.

Integrating presence-only and occupancy data to model habitat use for the northernmost population of jaguars

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at-risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. This has led to the development of SDMs that integrate multiple types and sources of data to leverage more information and provide improved predictions of habitat associations. We developed a novel integrated species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the border region between northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. Our model combined presence-only and occupancy data to identify key environmental correlates, and we used model results to develop a probability of use map. We adopted a logistic regression modeling framework, which we found to be more straightforward and less computationally intensive to fit than Poisson point process-based models. Model results suggested that high terrain ruggedness and the presence of riparian vegetation were most strongly related to habitat use by jaguars in our study region. Our best model, on average, predicted that there is currently 25,463 km² of usable habitat in our study region. The United States portion of the study region, which makes up 38.6% of the total area, contained 40.6% of the total usable habitat. Even though there have been few detections of jaguars in the southwestern USA in recent decades, our results suggest that protection of currently suitable habitats, along with increased conservation efforts, could significantly contribute to the recovery of jaguars in the USA.

Functional connectivity of the world's protected areas

Global policies call for connecting protected areas (PAs) to conserve the flow of animals and genes across changing landscapes, yet whether global PA networks currently support animal movement-and where connectivity conservation is most critical-remain largely unknown. In this study, we map the functional connectivity of the world's terrestrial PAs and quantify national PA connectivity through the lens of moving mammals. We find that mitigating the human footprint may improve connectivity more than adding new PAs, although both strategies together maximize benefits. The most globally important areas of concentrated mammal movement remain unprotected, with 71% of these overlapping with global biodiversity priority areas and 6% occurring on land with moderate to high human modification. Conservation and restoration of critical connectivity areas could safeguard PA connectivity while supporting other global conservation priorities.

Hunters, rangers, cougars, and jaguars: human and nonhuman territories at the Argentine-Brazilian border, 1960s-1990s

This article aims to understand the role of territorial practices in the interaction between human and nonhuman animals. It focuses on the Iguazú and Iguaçu national parks, established by Argentina and Brazil in the 1930s as nature reserves bisected by an international boundary. In a setting where human-made boundaries overlay natural boundaries, qualitatively different spatial practices clash in the territorial encounters between cougars, jaguars, and humans. The article demonstrates how changes in the border practices of park officials, hunters, and big cats reshuffled the terms of these encounters. The article assesses when, where, and how these encounters between rangers, poachers, and big cats took place, showing how felids challenged the spatial placement and taxonomical categories attributed to them by humans.

Smoothing splines of apex predator movement: Functional modeling strategies for exploring animal behavior and social interactions

The collection of animal position data via GPS tracking devices has increased in quality and usage in recent years. Animal position and movement, although measured discretely, follows the same principles of kinematic motion, and as such, the process is inherently continuous and differentiable. I demonstrate the functionality and visual elegance of smoothing spline models. I discuss the challenges and benefits of implementing such an approach, and I provide an analysis of movement and social interaction of seven jaguars inhabiting the Taiamã Ecological Station, Pantanal, Brazil, a region with the highest known density of jaguars. In the analysis, I derive measures for pairwise distance, cooccurrence, and spatiotemporal association between jaguars, borrowing ideas from density estimation and information theory. These measures are feasible as a result of spline model estimation, and they provide a critical tool for a deeper investigation of cooccurrence duration, frequency, and localized spatio-temporal relationships between animals. In this work, I characterize a variety of interactive relationships between pairs of jaguars, and I particularly emphasize the relationships in movement of two male-female and two male-male jaguar pairs exhibiting highly associative relationships.

Direct and indirect effects of roads on space use by jaguars in Brazil

Roads pose an imminent threat to wildlife directly through mortality and changes in individual behavior, and also indirectly through modification of the amount and configuration of wildlife habitat. However, few studies have addressed how these mechanisms interact to determine species response to roads. We used structural equation modeling to assess direct and indirect effects (via landscape modification) of roads on space use by jaguars in Brazil, using radio-tracking data available from the literature. We fit path models that directly link jaguars' space use to roads and to land cover, and indirectly link jaguars' space use to roads through the same land cover categories. Our findings show that space use by jaguars was not directly affected by roads, but indirect effects occurred through reductions in natural areas on which jaguars depend, and through urban sprawl. Males´ space use, however, was not negatively influenced by urban areas. Since jaguars seem to ignore roads, mitigation should be directed to road fencing and promoting safe crossings. We argue that planners and managers need to much more seriously take into account the deforestation and the unbridled urban expansion from roads to ensure jaguar conservation in Brazil.

Environmental and anthropogenic factors synergistically affect space use of jaguars

Large terrestrial carnivores have undergone some of the largest population declines and range reductions of any species, which is of concern as they can have large effects on ecosystem dynamics and function.^1-4 The jaguar (Panthera onca) is the apex predator throughout the majority of the Neotropics; however, its distribution has been reduced by >50% and it survives in increasingly isolated populations.⁵ Consequently, the range-wide management of the jaguar depends upon maintaining core populations connected through multi-national, transboundary cooperation, which requires understanding the movement ecology and space use of jaguars throughout their range.^6-8 Using GPS telemetry data for 111 jaguars from 13 ecoregions within the four biomes that constitute the majority of jaguar habitat, we examined the landscape-level environmental and anthropogenic factors related to jaguar home range size and movement parameters. Home range size decreased with increasing net productivity and forest cover and increased with increasing road density. Speed decreased with increasing forest cover with no sexual differences, while males had more directional movements, but tortuosity in movements was not related to any landscape factors. We demonstrated a synergistic relationship between landscape-scale environmental and anthropogenic factors and jaguars' spatial needs, which has applications to the conservation strategy for the species throughout the Neotropics. Using large-scale collaboration, we overcame limitations from small sample sizes typical in large carnivore research to provide a mechanism to evaluate habitat quality for jaguars and an inferential modeling framework adaptable to the conservation of other large terrestrial carnivores.

Jaguar movement behavior: using trajectories and association rule mining algorithms to unveil behavioral states and social interactions

Animal movement data are widely collected with devices such as sensors and collars, increasing the ability of researchers to monitor animal movement and providing information about animal behavioral patterns. Animal behavior is used as a basis for understanding the relationship between animals and the environment and for guiding decision-making by researchers and public agencies about environmental preservation and conservation actions. Animal movement and behavior are widely studied with a focus on identifying behavioral patterns, such as, animal group formation, the distance between animals and their home range. However, we observed a lack of research proposing a unified solution that aggregates resources for analyses of individual animal behavior and of social interactions between animals. The primary scientific contribution of this work is to present a framework that uses trajectory analysis and association rule mining [Jaiswal and Agarwal, 2012] to provide statistical measures of correlation and dependence to determine the relationship level between animals, their social interactions, and their interactions with other environmental factors based on their individual behavior and movement data. We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework by applying it to movement data from jaguars in the Pantanal, Brazil. This allowed us to describe jaguar behavior, social interactions among jaguars and their behavior in different landscapes, thus providing a highly detailed investigation of jaguar movement decisions at the fine scale.

Effects of body size on estimation of mammalian area requirements

Accurately quantifying species' area requirements is a prerequisite for effective area-based conservation. This typically involves collecting tracking data on species of interest and then conducting home-range analyses. Problematically, autocorrelation in tracking data can result in space needs being severely underestimated. Based on the previous work, we hypothesized the magnitude of underestimation varies with body mass, a relationship that could have serious conservation implications. To evaluate this hypothesis for terrestrial mammals, we estimated home-range areas with global positioning system (GPS) locations from 757 individuals across 61 globally distributed mammalian species with body masses ranging from 0.4 to 4000 kg. We then applied block cross-validation to quantify bias in empirical home-range estimates. Area requirements of mammals <10 kg were underestimated by a mean approximately15%, and species weighing approximately100 kg were underestimated by approximately50% on average. Thus, we found area estimation was subject to autocorrelation-induced bias that was worse for large species. Combined with the fact that extinction risk increases as body mass increases, the allometric scaling of bias we observed suggests the most threatened species are also likely to be those with the least accurate home-range estimates. As a correction, we tested whether data thinning or autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation minimized the scaling effect of autocorrelation on area estimates. Data thinning required an approximately93% data loss to achieve statistical independence with 95% confidence and was, therefore, not a viable solution. In contrast, autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation resulted in consistently accurate estimates irrespective of mass. When relating body mass to home range size, we detected that correcting for autocorrelation resulted in a scaling exponent significantly >1, meaning the scaling of the relationship changed substantially at the upper end of the mass spectrum.

Wetlands are keystone habitats for jaguars in an intercontinental biodiversity hotspot

Agricultural development was the major contributor to South America's designation as the continent with the highest rates of forest loss from 2000-2012. As the apex predator in the Neotropics, jaguars (Panthera onca) are dependent on forest cover but the species' response to habitat fragmentation in heterogeneous agricultural landscapes has not been a subject of extensive research. We used occupancy as a measure of jaguar habitat use in Colombia's middle Magdalena River valley which, as part of the intercontinental Tumbes-Chocó-Magdalena biodiversity hotspot, is exceedingly fragmented by expanding cattle pastures and oil palm plantations. We used single-season occupancy models to analyze 9 months of data (2015-2016) from 70 camera trap sites. Given the middle Magdalena's status as a "jaguar corridor" and our possible violation of the occupancy models' demographic closure assumption, we interpreted our results as "probability of habitat use (Ψ)" by jaguars. We measured the associations between jaguar presence and coverage of forest, oil palm, and wetlands in radii buffers of 1, 3, and 5 km around each camera trap. Our camera traps recorded 77 jaguar detections at 25 of the camera trap sites (36%) during 15,305 trap nights. The probability of detecting jaguars, given their presence at a site, was 0.28 (0.03 SE). In the top-ranked model, jaguar habitat use was positively influenced by wetland coverage (β = 7.16, 3.20 SE) and negatively influenced by cattle pastures (β = -1.40, 0.63 SE), both in the 3 km buffers. We conclude that wetlands may serve as keystone habitats for jaguars in landscapes fragmented by cattle ranches and oil palm plantations. Greater focus on wetland preservation could facilitate jaguar persistence in one of the most important yet vulnerable areas of their distribution.