Favorable impact in hepatitis C-related mortality following free access to direct-acting antivirals in Spain

Global, Regional, and National Trends in Liver Disease-Related Mortality Across 112 Countries From 1990 to 2021, With Projections to 2050: Comprehensive Analysis of the WHO Mortality Database

BACKGROUND

Liver disease causes over two million deaths annually worldwide, comprising approximately 4% of all global fatalities. We aimed to analyze liver disease-related mortality trends from 1990 to 2021 using the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database and forecast global liver disease-related mortality rates up to 2050.

METHODS

This study examined age-standardized liver disease-related death rates from 1990 to 2021, employing data from the WHO Mortality Database across 112 countries across five continents. The rates over time were calculated using a locally weighted scatter plot smoother curve, with weights assigned based on the population of each country. Furthermore, this study projected liver disease-related mortality rates up to 2050 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Additionally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to discern influencing factors such as population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes.

RESULTS

The estimated global age-standardized liver disease-related mortality rates surged significantly from 1990 to 2021 across 112 countries, rising from 103.4 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.16, 118.74) in 1990 to 173.0 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 155.15, 190.95) in 2021. This upward trend was particularly pronounced in low- and middle-income countries, in Africa, and in populations aged 65 years and older. Moreover, age-standardized liver disease-related mortality rates were correlated with a lower Human Development Index (P < 0.001) and sociodemographic index (P = 0.001). According to the BAPC model, the projected trend indicated a sustained and substantial decline in liver disease-related mortality rates, with an estimated decrease from 185.08 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 179.79, 190.63) in 2021 to 156.29 (112.32, 214.77) in 2050. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized liver disease-related deaths surged primarily due to epidemiological changes, whereas from 1990 to 2050, the impact of population aging and growth became the primary contributing factors to the overall increase.

CONCLUSION

Global age-standardized liver disease-related mortality has increased significantly and continues to emerge as a crucial global public health issue. Further investigation into liver disease-related mortality rates in Africa is needed, and updating policies is necessary to effectively manage the global burden of liver disease.

Socioeconomic Deprivation Weighs Heavily on Liver Fibrosis and Mortality After Hepatitis C Cure (ANRS CO22 Hepather)

Although Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can be cured with direct-acting antivirals (DAA), some cured patients face a serious risk of advanced liver damage and early mortality. In order to avoid these two negative health outcomes, it is important to identify and assess related risk factors. Little is currently known about socioeconomic and behavioural factors in this context. Using data from the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort, we tested for associations between socioeconomic and behavioural factors and (i) advanced liver fibrosis (defined as an FIB-4 > 3.25) assessed longitudinally using a mixed-effects logistic regression model (both the whole population and stratified on advanced liver fibrosis status at the time of HCV cure) and (ii) all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazards model), during post-HCV cure follow-up. Among 5833 participants cured of HCV, living in poverty was associated with postcure advanced liver fibrosis in participants without this diagnosis at the time of HCV cure (population attributable fraction-PAF-of 8.6%) and with mortality in the whole study population (PAF of 10.6%). The detrimental effects of unhealthy alcohol use and heavy tobacco smoking, as well as the beneficial effect of living with a stable partner were also highlighted. We highlighted the major role of poverty and behavioural factors in advanced liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in patients cured of HCV. Encouraging linkage to social support services and healthy behaviours after successful DAA treatment could limit morbidity and increase survival in this population. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01953458.

Evaluation of the clinical and economic value of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Spain during the last 5 years

OBJECTIVE

Direct-acting antivirals for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) represented a paradigm shift. In 2017, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL-Epclusa®) was approved, which showed a high cure rate in all patient, contributing to HCV elimination. The analysis aimed to quantify the clinical and economic value of SOF/VEL in HCV chronic patients since its approval in Spain.

METHODS

An economic evaluation was elaborated adapting a Markov model that simulated the lifetime disease progression in of all HCV chronic patients treated with SOF/VEL (30,488 patients) since its launch (5-years), compared to previous therapies. Patients entered the model and were distributed between the fibrosis states (F0-to-F4) in treated and untreated. All patients (100%) were treated with SOF/VEL regardless of their fibrosis, and 49% with previous therapies in ≥F2. The average sustained viral response (SVR) rates 98.9% SOF/VEL versus 61.0% previous therapies. All parameters for the analysis were obtained from real-life data and literature. Only direct healthcare costs associated with disease management were included. The SOF/VEL value was measured as the number of hepatic complications avoided and their associated cost, and hepatic mortality compared to previous therapies. National Health System perspective and a 3% discount rate was applied.

RESULTS

SOF/VEL decreased the number of liver complications, avoiding 92% decompensated cirrhosis, 80% hepatocellular carcinomas, and 87% liver transplants, as well as 85% liver-related mortality. Their cost associated was reduced, amounting to savings of 197M€.

CONCLUSION

SOF/VEL adds relevant value to the HCV treatment, reducing the clinical and economic disease burden and contributing to HCV elimination in Spain.

The Efficiency of Increased HCV Testing and Treatment Strategies in Spain to Achieve Elimination Goals

BACKGROUND

In 2015, Spain launched a national eradication strategy for hepatitis C virus (HCV), resulting in the highest treatment rate in Europe and substantial reductions in HCV prevalence. However, to achieve the goal of HCV elimination, it is necessary to scale-up the diagnosis, treatment, and management of HCV infection.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to assess the prevalence, incidence, and cost effectiveness of scaling-up compared with status quo scenarios.

METHODS

A compartmental dynamic transmission model was developed comprising of a cascade of care and a liver progression module. Cost and quality-of-life inputs were sourced from the literature. Key outcomes were the prevalence and incidence of HCV and the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and per life-year (LY). Outcomes for a hypothetical elimination strategy were compared with the status quo.

RESULTS

The base-case analysis found that scaling-up testing and treatment reduced both the prevalence and incidence of HCV over time, resulting in incremental costs per QALY and LY of €13,291 and €12,285 respectively, compared with the status quo. The main drivers of the cost-effectiveness results included cost of diagnosis, cost of treatment, proportion of people who are unaware, percentage of population who inject drugs, and calibration parameters related to HCV infection prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrated that scaling-up testing and treatment with direct-acting antivirals may be an efficient strategy for reducing the incidence and prevalence of HCV and may help achieve HCV elimination goals in Spain.

Hepatitis C virus cure from direct-acting antivirals and mortality: Are people with and without a history of injection drug use in the same boat? (ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort)

INTRODUCTION

The risk of mortality in people with a history of injection drug use (PHID) is high, as is the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Although direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are effective in this population in terms of sustained virological response, it is not known whether PHID benefit as much as people with no history of injection drug use from DAA-related HCV cure in terms of reduced all-cause mortality.

METHODS

Using Cox proportional hazards models based on the ANRS CO22 Hepather cohort data (n = 9735), we identified factors associated with all-cause mortality among HCV-infected people. We tested for interaction effects between drug injection status, HCV cure and other explanatory variables.

RESULTS

DAA-related HCV cure was associated with a 66% (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.34 [0.29-0.39]) lower risk of all-cause mortality, irrespective of drug injection status. Detrimental effects of unhealthy alcohol use on mortality were identified in PHID only.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

DAA-related HCV cure led to comparable benefits in terms of reduced mortality in PHID and people with no history of injection drug use. Policies and strategies to enhance DAA uptake among PHID are needed to lower mortality in this population. Clinical trial registration details: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01953458.

Epidemiological Perspectives: A Four-Year Insight Into Hepatitis C Surveillance in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Introduction Hepatitis C is a viral disease caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV), a member of the Flaviviridae family. This compact, enveloped RNA virus possesses a positive single-stranded genome and can be transmitted through various means, including blood exposure, sexual contact, and vertical transmission. The disease is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, imposing substantial costs on the healthcare system. In Saudi Arabia, HCV is a notifiable disease; however, there is a scarcity of recent reports on HCV trends in the country. This study aims to provide updated insights into the infection patterns of HCV across demographics, regions, and genders in Saudi Arabia. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted to investigate the epidemiological trends of HCV infection in Saudi Arabia. Data were obtained from the Saudi Ministry of Health (MOH), encompassing the timeframe from 2019 to 2022. A descriptive analysis of HCV infection, organized by year, age group, and gender, was conducted using the data reported to the MOH. Results Between 2019 and 2022, there was a significant decrease of 56.9% in the overall rate of hepatitis C cases in Saudi Arabia. The rate dropped from 9.94 to 4.29 cases per 100,000 people during this period. Males consistently had higher reported cases compared to females, although there was a notable decline in cases for both genders from 2019 to 2022. The highest incidence of HCV was found in individuals aged 45 years and above. However, there was a decline in cases among this age group, with the number dropping from 2,195 cases in 2019 to 946 cases in 2022. In terms of regional variations, Riyadh, Makkah, Jeddah, Alsharqiya, and Taif had the highest incidence of HCV cases. Some regions experienced an increase in cases between 2021 and 2022, particularly Jeddah, Taif, and Al-Ahsaa. Conclusion This study reveals a significant reduction in reported HCV cases in Saudi Arabia from 2019 to 2022. However, gender disparities persist, with males having a higher number of reported cases. There is also a notable decline in HCV cases among children and adolescents, which can be attributed to preventive measures. The findings emphasize the importance of region-specific strategies, as certain areas, such as Riyadh, Makkah, Jeddah, Alsharqiya, and Taif, continue to have a high number of reported cases. Proactive measures, surveillance, and public awareness campaigns remain crucial in addressing HCV as a significant public health challenge in the Kingdom.

Increase in educational inequalities in alcohol-related mortality in Spain during a period of economic growth

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol-related mortality risk is almost always greater in lower than higher socio-economic positions (SEPs). There is little information on the evolution of this SEP gradient and its relationship with the economic cycle. Some results suggest that during economic expansions, there is a hypersensitivity of low-SEP people to harmful drinking. The main objective of this study was to measure the evolution of educational inequality in alcohol-related and non-alcohol related mortality by sex and age group in Spain during 2012-19.

DESIGN, SETTING AND MEASUREMENTS

This is a repeated cross-sectional study. This study includes all residents in Spain aged 25 years and over from 2012 to 2019. (1) We calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) from strongly/moderately alcohol-related causes (directly alcohol-attributable, unspecified liver cirrhosis, liver and upper aerodigestive tract cancers and moderately alcohol-related), weakly alcohol-related causes and other causes by educational level. (2) We used age-adjusted relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII) to measure relative and absolute educational inequality in mortality, respectively. (3) Age-adjusted annual percentage change (APC) was also used to measure linear trends in mortality by educational level. RII, SII and APC were obtained from negative binomial regression.

FINDINGS

Between 2012-15 and 2016-19, economic growth accelerated, the RII in mortality from strongly/moderately alcohol-related causes increased from 2.0 to 2.2 among men and from 1.1 to 1.3 among women, and the SII in deaths/100 000 person-years from 181.4 to 190.9 among men and from 18.9 to 46.5 among women. It also increased relative and absolute inequality in mortality from weakly alcohol-related and other causes of death in both men and women. These increases in inequality were due primarily to a flattening or even reversal of the downward mortality trend among low- and medium-educated people.

CONCLUSIONS

During the economic expansion of 2012-19 in Spain, changes in mortality risk from strongly/moderately alcohol-related causes were especially unfavourable among low- and medium-educated people.

Hepatitis C antibody prevalence and active hepatitis C infection in HIV-negative gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in Barcelona and Madrid, Spain (March 2018-March 2021)

OBJECTIVES

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been recognized as a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM), with an increased notification in HIV-negative MSM. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of HCV antibody and active HCV infection in HIV-negative gay, bisexual, and other MSM (GBMSM), and their characteristics, in Barcelona and Madrid, from March 2018 to March 2021.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study conducted on 3548 HIV-undiagnosed GBMSM, across four HIV/STI testing centers. Respondents submitted an online, self-administered questionnaire after consultation, which collected information on sociodemographics, sexual health history, HCV knowledge, and substance consumption. Prevalence of HCV antibodies was determined by a reactive result in a rapid anti-HCV test or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), while active HCV infection was determined by participants who were also positive on an HCV-RNA test. Crude and adjusted Poisson analyses with robust variance are presented for both prevalence and active infection.

RESULTS

In total, 97.6% of participants (n = 3463) were HIV-negative. Of those, 18 were found to have HCV antibodies (0.52%), of which nine (0.26%) were also HCV-RNA positive. Those with HCV antibodies were associated to have lived with an HCV (+) person (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR]: 7.84, [95% confidence interval: 2.50-24.53]), using injectable drugs for sex (APR: 6.92, [1.20-39.79]) and testing positive for an STI in the previous year (APR: 4.06, [1.09-15.12]). Presenting an active infection was strongly associated with a previous HCV diagnosis (APR: 100.82 [22.16-458.76]), sexualized injectable drug use (APR: 17.53 [2.70-113.76]), and sharing douching material (APR: 7.45, [2.12-25.95]).

CONCLUSION

Sexual practices with a higher risk of bleeding and sexualized drug use, particularly sexualized injectable drug use, were associated with higher rates of HCV diagnosis in GBMSM. Identifying these practices during consultation, contact tracing new cases and regularly testing those with a previous history of HCV, will facilitate HCV eradication.

The impact of expanded access to direct acting antivirals for Hepatitis C virus on patient outcomes in Canada

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has high global prevalence and can lead to liver complications and death. Access to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Canada increased following several policy changes, however the real-world impact of expanded DAA access and increased use of these drugs is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the early change in rates of HCV-related hospitalizations overall and HCV-related hospitalizations with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after expanded DAA access.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based time series analysis using national administrative health databases in Canada. Rates of HCV-related hospitalizations and HCV-related hospitalizations with HCC were enumerated monthly between April 2006 and March 2020. We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models with ramp functions in October 2014 and January 2017 to evaluate the impact of policies to expand DAA access on hospitalization outcomes.

RESULTS

Rates of HCV-related hospitalizations in Canada increased between 2006 and 2014, and gradually declined thereafter. The decrease after October 2014, or the first policy change, was significant (p = 0.0355), but no further change was found after the second policy change in 2017 (p = 0.2567). HCV-related hospitalizations with HCC increased until end of 2013, followed by a plateau, before declining in 2016. No significant shifts were found after the first policy change in 2014 (p = 0.1291) nor the second policy change in 2017 (p = 0.6324). Subgroup analyses revealed that those aged 50-64 and males had observable declines in rates of HCV-related hospitalizations in the year prior to the first policy change.

CONCLUSIONS

Expanding DAA access was associated with a drop in HCV-related hospitalizations in the overall Canadian population coinciding with the 2014 policy change. In light of the time required for HCV-related complications to manifest, continued ongoing research examining the real-world effectiveness of DAAs is required.

Necessity for surveillance for hepatocellualr carcinoma in older patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virological response

Background and Aim

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in low-risk patients (annual incidence <1.5%) is not recommended per the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines. Because patients with chronic hepatitis C with non-advanced fibrosis who have achieved sustained virological response (SVR) have a low risk of HCC, HCC surveillance is not recommended for them. However, aging is a risk factor for HCC; threfore, the necessity for HCC surveillance in older patients with non-advanced fibrosis needs to be verified.

Methods

This multicenter, prospective study enrolled 4993 patients with SVR (1998 patients with advanced fibrosis and 2995 patients with non-advanced fibrosis). The HCC incidence was examined with particular attention to age.

Results

The 3-year incidence of HCC in patients with advanced and non-advanced fibrosis was 9.2% (95% CI: 7.8-10.9) and 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1-3.7), respectively. HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with advanced fibrosis (P < 0.001). HCC incidence stratified by age and sex was investigated in patients with non-advanced fibrosis. The HCC incidence in the 18-49, 50s, 60s, 70s, and ≥80 age groups were 0.26, 1.3, 1.8, 1.7, and 2.9 per 100 person-years in men, and 0.00, 0.32, 0.58, 0.49, and 0.57 per 100 person-years in women, respectively.

Conclusions

Male patients with non-advanced fibrosis aged ≥60 years have a higher risk of developing HCC and, thus, require HCC surveillance.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in HIV-infected patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Underlying immunodeficiency is associated with severe COVID-19, but the prognosis of persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) with COVID-19 is under debate. Aim: assessment of the mortality rate and major determinants of death in HIV-infected patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Spain before vaccine availability. Design: Retrospective nationwide public database analysis.

METHODS

Nationwide, retrospective, observational analysis of all hospitalizations with COVID-19 during year 2020 in Spain. Stratification was made according to HIV status. The National Registry of Hospital Discharges was used with the ICD-10 coding list.

RESULTS

A total of 117 694 adults were hospitalized with COVID-19 during 2020. Only 234 (0.2%) were HIV-positives. More than 95% were on antiretroviral therapy. Compared to HIV-negatives, PWH were younger (mean age 53.2 vs. 66.5 years old; P<0.001) and more frequently male (74.8% vs. 56.6%; P<0.001). Most co-morbidities predisposing to severe COVID-19 (diabetes, hypertension, dementia and cardiovascular disease) were more frequent in HIV-negatives. In contrast, the rate of baseline liver disease was over 6-fold higher in PWH (27.4% vs. 4.4%; P<0.001). In-hospital mortality was lower in PWH (9.4% vs. 16%; P=0.004). In multivariate analysis, older age, dementia and especially advanced liver disease (relative risk (RR): 7.6) were the major determinants of death in PWH hospitalized with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

HIV-infected patients hospitalized in Spain with COVID-19 during 2020 had better survival than HIV-negatives, most likely explained by younger age and lower rate of co-morbidities. However, advanced liver disease was a major predictor of death in PWH hospitalized with COVID-19.

Epidemiology of HCV and HBV in a High Endemic Area of Southern Italy: Opportunities from the COVID-19 Pandemic-Standardized National Screening or One Tailored to Local Epidemiology?

The COVID-19 pandemic led to the hospitalization of an unselected population with the possibility to evaluate the epidemiology of viral hepatitis. Thus, a retrospective multicenter study was conducted in an area of Southern Italy with the aim of assessing the prevalence of HCV and HBV markers and the ability of current screening program to capture cases. We evaluated 2126 hospitalized patients in seven COVID Centers of Naples and Caserta area in which 70% of the Campania population lives. HBsAg and HCV-Ab prevalence was 1.6% and 5.1%, respectively, with no differences between gender. Decade distribution for birth year shows a bimodal trend of HCV prevalence, with a peak (11.6%) in the decade 1930-1939 and a second peak (5.6%) for those born in 1960-1969. An analysis of the screening period imposed by the Italian government for those born between 1969 and 1989 shows that only 17% of cases of HCV infection could be captured. A small alignment of the screening period, i.e., those born from 1960 to 1984, would capture 40% of cases. The data confirm the high endemicity of our geographical area for hepatitis virus infections and underline the need for a tailored screening program according to the regional epidemiology.