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Thomas AM, Litwin AH, Tsui JI, Sprecht-Walsh S, Blalock KL, Tashima KT, Lum PJ, Feinberg J, Page K, Mehta SH, Kim AY, Norton BL, Heo M, Stein ES, Murray-Krezan C, Arnsten J, Groome M, Waters E, Taylor LE. Retreatment of Hepatitis C Virus Among People Who Inject Drugs. Clin Infect Dis 2025:ciaf082. [PMID: 40230037 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaf082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2024] [Indexed: 04/16/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of infectious disease death in the United States. Although highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens are well established, retreatment among people who inject drugs (PWID) has not been sufficiently studied. This study assessed DAA retreatment outcomes and associated factors. METHODS We performed analyses of longitudinal data from the HERO Study, a US-based multi-site pragmatic randomized trial conducted in 8 states to evaluate effectiveness of 2 HCV care models among DAA treatment-naïve PWID in opioid treatment programs and community clinics. After initial HERO Study sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) treatment, participants eligible for retreatment were identified, from 15 September 2016 to 13 September 2021. This analysis characterizes participants who either did not achieve sustained virologic response (SVR) or were reinfected with HCV post-SVR. We compared categorical variables using Fisher exact test and continuous variables using the Welch 2 sample t test for means and an asymptotic 2-sample Mood median test. RESULTS One hundred four participants were identified as eligible for retreatment. Less than half, 43 (41.3%), initiated retreatment. Among the 25 who initiated retreatment and for whom SVR results were available, 24 achieved SVR (96%). Participants who did not achieve SVR initiated retreatment more promptly than participants reinfected post-SVR (respectively, 471 vs 784 days on average, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS After reinfection or not achieving SVR with the first DAA regimen, retreated PWID achieved higher SVR rates than with initial DAA treatment. To attain HCV elimination and benefit individual and public health, assisting PWID with accessing prompt retreatment is crucial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurielle M Thomas
- Department of Pharmacy Practice and Clinical Research, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, Rhode Island, USA
- Division of Infectious Diseases, The Miriam Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island, USA
| | - Alain H Litwin
- Department of Medicine at Prisma Health, Clemson University School of Health Research, Clemson, South Carolina, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of South Carolina School of Medicine, Greenville, South Carolina, USA
- Department of Medicine, Prisma Health, Greenville, South Carolina, USA
| | - Judith I Tsui
- Division of General Internal Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | | | - Karen T Tashima
- Department of Medicine, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA
| | - Paula J Lum
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Judith Feinberg
- Department of Behavioral Medicine & Psychiatry and Department of Medicine, Infectious Diseases, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA
| | - Kimberly Page
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
| | - Shruti H Mehta
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Arthur Y Kim
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Brianna L Norton
- Department of Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center/Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York, USA
| | - Moonseong Heo
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA
| | - Ellen S Stein
- Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | | | - Julia Arnsten
- Department of Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center/Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York, USA
| | - Megan Groome
- Department of Medicine, Prisma Health, Greenville, South Carolina, USA
| | - Emily Waters
- Department of Medicine, University of South Carolina School of Medicine, Greenville, South Carolina, USA
| | - Lynn E Taylor
- Department of Pharmacy Practice and Clinical Research, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, Rhode Island, USA
- Department of Medicine, HealthFirst Family Care Center Inc., Fall River, Massachusetts, USA
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Ghosh S, Zhao X, Alim M, Brudno M, Bhat M. Artificial intelligence applied to 'omics data in liver disease: towards a personalised approach for diagnosis, prognosis and treatment. Gut 2025; 74:295-311. [PMID: 39174307 PMCID: PMC11874365 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2024] [Accepted: 07/24/2024] [Indexed: 08/24/2024]
Abstract
Advancements in omics technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) methodologies are fuelling our progress towards personalised diagnosis, prognosis and treatment strategies in hepatology. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the current landscape of AI methods used for analysis of omics data in liver diseases. We present an overview of the prevalence of different omics levels across various liver diseases, as well as categorise the AI methodology used across the studies. Specifically, we highlight the predominance of transcriptomic and genomic profiling and the relatively sparse exploration of other levels such as the proteome and methylome, which represent untapped potential for novel insights. Publicly available database initiatives such as The Cancer Genome Atlas and The International Cancer Genome Consortium have paved the way for advancements in the diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, the same availability of large omics datasets remains limited for other liver diseases. Furthermore, the application of sophisticated AI methods to handle the complexities of multiomics datasets requires substantial data to train and validate the models and faces challenges in achieving bias-free results with clinical utility. Strategies to address the paucity of data and capitalise on opportunities are discussed. Given the substantial global burden of chronic liver diseases, it is imperative that multicentre collaborations be established to generate large-scale omics data for early disease recognition and intervention. Exploring advanced AI methods is also necessary to maximise the potential of these datasets and improve early detection and personalised treatment strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Soumita Ghosh
- Transplant AI Initiative, Ajmera Transplant Program, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Xun Zhao
- Transplant AI Initiative, Ajmera Transplant Program, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mouaid Alim
- Transplant AI Initiative, Ajmera Transplant Program, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Michael Brudno
- Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Vector Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mamatha Bhat
- Transplant AI Initiative, Ajmera Transplant Program, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Division of Gastroenterology, University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Toronto General Hospital Research Institute, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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3
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Lu MY, Chuang WL, Yu ML. The role of artificial intelligence in the management of liver diseases. Kaohsiung J Med Sci 2024; 40:962-971. [PMID: 39440678 DOI: 10.1002/kjm2.12901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2024] [Revised: 09/24/2024] [Accepted: 09/24/2024] [Indexed: 10/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Universal neonatal hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination and the advent of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) against hepatitis C virus (HCV) have reshaped the epidemiology of chronic liver diseases. However, some aspects of the management of chronic liver diseases remain unresolved. Nucleotide analogs can achieve sustained HBV DNA suppression but rarely lead to a functional cure. Despite the high efficacy of DAAs, successful antiviral therapy does not eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), highlighted the need for cost-effective identification of high-risk populations for HCC surveillance and tailored HCC treatment strategies for these populations. The accessibility of high-throughput genomic data has accelerated the development of precision medicine, and the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) has led to a new era of precision medicine. AI can learn from complex, non-linear data and identify hidden patterns within real-world datasets. The combination of AI and multi-omics approaches can facilitate disease diagnosis, biomarker discovery, and the prediction of treatment efficacy and prognosis. AI algorithms have been implemented in various aspects, including non-invasive tests, predictive models, image diagnosis, and the interpretation of histopathology findings. AI can support clinicians in decision-making, alleviate clinical burdens, and curtail healthcare expenses. In this review, we introduce the fundamental concepts of machine learning and review the role of AI in the management of chronic liver diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming-Ying Lu
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine and Doctoral Program of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, College of Medicine and Center of Excellence for Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Wan-Long Chuang
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Lung Yu
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine and Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine and Doctoral Program of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, College of Medicine and Center of Excellence for Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
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4
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Behery ME, Elghwab A, Tabll AA, Elsayed EH, Abdelrazek MA. Serum collagen IV as a predictor for response to direct-acting antivirals hepatitis C therapy. J Immunoassay Immunochem 2024; 45:539-548. [PMID: 39402774 DOI: 10.1080/15321819.2024.2415882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2024]
Abstract
Althoughchronic hepatitis C (CHC) therapies based on direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents safely improved treatment effectiveness, some cases do not obtain sustained virological response (SVR) and, thus, evaluating factors that may be related to treatment failure is very important. We aimed to evaluate the association of baseline serum collagen IV with DAA treatment failure in Egyptian patients with CHC. A total of 175 CHC patients (100 responders and 75non-responders tosofosbuvir/daclatasvir) were included. Collagen IV was assessed using sensitive chemiluminescent immunoassay. There was distinctly higher (P < 0.0001) collagen IV in non-responders compared to responder patients as the median (interquartile range) were 19.02 (13.4-25.2) vs.9.7 (7.2-12.3) µg/L, respectively. Collagen IV has a good ability for distinguishing nonresponders from responder patients (AUC = 0.890) with sensitivity of 92%, specificity 72%, PPV 71.1%, NPV 92.3% and accuracy of 80.6%. Collagen IV was correlated (p < 0.05) with decreased albumin (r=-0.266), elevated APRI (r = 0.288), and elevated FIB-4 (r = 0.281) scores. In conclusion,these findings suggested the remarkable role of baseline collagen IV in the prediction of HCV DAAs treatment response. Thus, however further studies are needed, its measurement may improve treatment duration and the disease control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed El Behery
- Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Port Said University, Port Said, Egypt
| | - AhmedI Elghwab
- Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Port Said University, Port Said, Egypt
| | - Ashraf A Tabll
- Microbial Biotechnology Department, Biotechnology Research Institute, National Research Centre, Giza, Egypt
| | - Elsherbiny H Elsayed
- Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Port Said University, Port Said, Egypt
| | - Mohamed A Abdelrazek
- Sherbin Central Hospital, Ministry of Health and Population, Shirbin, Egypt
- Research and Development Department, Biotechnology Research Center, New Damietta, Egypt
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Li S, Zhang Y, Lin Y, Zheng L, Fang K, Wu J. Development and validation of prediction models for nosocomial infection and prognosis in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. Antimicrob Resist Infect Control 2024; 13:85. [PMID: 39113159 PMCID: PMC11304655 DOI: 10.1186/s13756-024-01444-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2024] [Accepted: 07/27/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Nosocomial infections (NIs) frequently occur and adversely impact prognosis for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. This study aims to develop and validate two machine learning models for NIs and in-hospital mortality risk prediction. METHODS The Prediction of Nosocomial Infection and Prognosis in Cirrhotic patients (PIPC) study included hospitalized patients with cirrhosis at the Qingchun Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University. We then assessed several machine learning algorithms to construct predictive models for NIs and prognosis. We validated the best-performing models with bootstrapping techniques and an external validation dataset. The accuracy of the predictions was evaluated through sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios, while predictive robustness was examined through subgroup analyses and comparisons between models. RESULTS We enrolled 1,297 patients into derivation cohort and 496 patients into external validation cohort. Among the six algorithms assessed, the Random Forest algorithm performed best. For NIs, the PIPC-NI model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.784 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.741-0.826), a sensitivity of 0.712, and a specificity of 0.702. For in-hospital mortality, the PIPC- mortality model achieved an AUC of 0.793 (95% CI 0.749-0.836), a sensitivity of 0.769, and a specificity of 0.701. Moreover, our PIPC models demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to the existing MELD, MELD-Na, and Child-Pugh scores. CONCLUSIONS The PIPC models showed good predictive power and may facilitate healthcare providers in easily assessing the risk of NIs and prognosis among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shuwen Li
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China
| | - Yu Zhang
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China
| | - Yushi Lin
- Department of Infectious Diseases, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Luyan Zheng
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China
| | - Kailu Fang
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China
| | - Jie Wu
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310003, China.
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6
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Elste J, Saini A, Mejia-Alvarez R, Mejía A, Millán-Pacheco C, Swanson-Mungerson M, Tiwari V. Significance of Artificial Intelligence in the Study of Virus-Host Cell Interactions. Biomolecules 2024; 14:911. [PMID: 39199298 PMCID: PMC11352483 DOI: 10.3390/biom14080911] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2024] [Revised: 07/11/2024] [Accepted: 07/23/2024] [Indexed: 09/01/2024] Open
Abstract
A highly critical event in a virus's life cycle is successfully entering a given host. This process begins when a viral glycoprotein interacts with a target cell receptor, which provides the molecular basis for target virus-host cell interactions for novel drug discovery. Over the years, extensive research has been carried out in the field of virus-host cell interaction, generating a massive number of genetic and molecular data sources. These datasets are an asset for predicting virus-host interactions at the molecular level using machine learning (ML), a subset of artificial intelligence (AI). In this direction, ML tools are now being applied to recognize patterns in these massive datasets to predict critical interactions between virus and host cells at the protein-protein and protein-sugar levels, as well as to perform transcriptional and translational analysis. On the other end, deep learning (DL) algorithms-a subfield of ML-can extract high-level features from very large datasets to recognize the hidden patterns within genomic sequences and images to develop models for rapid drug discovery predictions that address pathogenic viruses displaying heightened affinity for receptor docking and enhanced cell entry. ML and DL are pivotal forces, driving innovation with their ability to perform analysis of enormous datasets in a highly efficient, cost-effective, accurate, and high-throughput manner. This review focuses on the complexity of virus-host cell interactions at the molecular level in light of the current advances of ML and AI in viral pathogenesis to improve new treatments and prevention strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- James Elste
- Department of Microbiology & Immunology, College of Graduate Studies, Midwestern University, Downers Grove, IL 60515, USA; (J.E.); (M.S.-M.)
| | - Akash Saini
- Hinsdale Central High School, 5500 S Grant St, Hinsdale, IL 60521, USA;
| | - Rafael Mejia-Alvarez
- Department of Physiology, College of Graduate Studies, Midwestern University, Downers Grove, IL 60515, USA;
| | - Armando Mejía
- Departamento de Biotechnology, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, Ciudad de Mexico 09340, Mexico;
| | - Cesar Millán-Pacheco
- Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos, Av. Universidad No. 1001, Col Chamilpa, Cuernavaca 62209, Mexico;
| | - Michelle Swanson-Mungerson
- Department of Microbiology & Immunology, College of Graduate Studies, Midwestern University, Downers Grove, IL 60515, USA; (J.E.); (M.S.-M.)
| | - Vaibhav Tiwari
- Department of Microbiology & Immunology, College of Graduate Studies, Midwestern University, Downers Grove, IL 60515, USA; (J.E.); (M.S.-M.)
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Gupta YD, Bhandary S. Artificial Intelligence for Understanding Mechanisms of Antimicrobial Resistance and Antimicrobial Discovery. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING IN DRUG DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT 2024:117-156. [DOI: 10.1002/9781394234196.ch5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2025]
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Hur MH, Lee JH. Toward hepatitis C virus elimination using artificial intelligence. Clin Mol Hepatol 2024; 30:147-149. [PMID: 38390703 PMCID: PMC11016500 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2024.0135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Moon Haeng Hur
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jeong-Hoon Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
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Lu MY, Huang CF, Hung CH, Tai C, Mo LR, Kuo HT, Tseng KC, Lo CC, Bair MJ, Wang SJ, Huang JF, Yeh ML, Chen CT, Tsai MC, Huang CW, Lee PL, Yang TH, Huang YH, Chong LW, Chen CL, Yang CC, Yang S, Cheng PN, Hsieh TY, Hu JT, Wu WC, Cheng CY, Chen GY, Zhou GX, Tsai WL, Kao CN, Lin CL, Wang CC, Lin TY, Lin C, Su WW, Lee TH, Chang TS, Liu CJ, Dai CY, Kao JH, Lin HC, Chuang WL, Peng CY, Tsai CW, Chen CY, Yu ML. Artificial intelligence predicts direct-acting antivirals failure among hepatitis C virus patients: A nationwide hepatitis C virus registry program. Clin Mol Hepatol 2024; 30:64-79. [PMID: 38195113 PMCID: PMC10776298 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2023.0287] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Revised: 11/02/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS Despite the high efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), approximately 1-3% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. We conducted a nationwide study to investigate risk factors associated with DAA treatment failure. Machine-learning algorithms have been applied to discriminate subjects who may fail to respond to DAA therapy. METHODS We analyzed the Taiwan HCV Registry Program database to explore predictors of DAA failure in HCV patients. Fifty-five host and virological features were assessed using multivariate logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network. The primary outcome was undetectable HCV RNA at 12 weeks after the end of treatment. RESULTS The training (n=23,955) and validation (n=10,346) datasets had similar baseline demographics, with an overall DAA failure rate of 1.6% (n=538). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that liver cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, poor DAA adherence, and higher hemoglobin A1c were significantly associated with virological failure. XGBoost outperformed the other algorithms and logistic regression models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 1.000 in the training dataset and 0.803 in the validation dataset. The top five predictors of treatment failure were HCV RNA, body mass index, α-fetoprotein, platelets, and FIB-4 index. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the XGBoost model (cutoff value=0.5) were 99.5%, 69.7%, 99.9%, 97.4%, and 99.5%, respectively, for the entire dataset. CONCLUSION Machine learning algorithms effectively provide risk stratification for DAA failure and additional information on the factors associated with DAA failure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming-Ying Lu
- School of Medicine and Doctoral Program of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, College of Medicine and Center of Excellence for Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Feng Huang
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Ph.D. Program in Translational Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, and Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chao-Hung Hung
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chi‐Ming Tai
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, E-Da Hospital, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine for International Students, College of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Lein-Ray Mo
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tainan Municipal Hospital (Managed By Show Chwan Medical Care Corporation), Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Hsing-Tao Kuo
- School of Medicine and Doctoral Program of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, College of Medicine and Center of Excellence for Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi Mei Medical Center, Yongkang District, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Kuo-Chih Tseng
- Department of Internal Medicine, Dalin Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation, Chiayi, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, Tzuchi University, Hualien, Taiwan
| | - Ching-Chu Lo
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, St. Martin De Porres Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Jong Bair
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Taitung Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taitung, Taiwan
- Mackay Medical College, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Szu-Jen Wang
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yuan’s General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Jee-Fu Huang
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Lun Yeh
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Ting Chen
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tri-Service General Hospital Penghu Branch, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Chang Tsai
- School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Department of Internal Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Wei Huang
- Division of Gastroenterology, Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Pei-Lun Lee
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Tainan, Taiwan
| | | | - Yi-Hsiang Huang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Lee-Won Chong
- Division of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Shin Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Lin Chen
- Department of Medicine, Hualien Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation and Tzu Chi University, Hualien, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Chieh Yang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Division of Internal Medicine, Show Chwan Memorial Hospital, Changhua, Taiwan
| | - Sheng‐Shun Yang
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Pin-Nan Cheng
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Tsai-Yuan Hsieh
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Jui-Ting Hu
- Liver Center, Cathay General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Wen-Chih Wu
- Wen-Chih Wu Clinic, Fengshan, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Yu Cheng
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Taoyuan General Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Guei-Ying Chen
- Penghu Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Penghu, Taiwan
| | | | - Wei-Lun Tsai
- Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Neng Kao
- National Taiwan University Hospital Hsin-Chu Branch, Hsinchu, Taiwan
| | - Chih-Lang Lin
- Liver Research Unit, Department of Hepato-Gastroenterology and Community Medicine Research Center, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Keelung, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Keelung, Taiwan
| | - Chia-Chi Wang
- Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation and School of Medicine, Tzu Chi University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Ta-Ya Lin
- Cishan Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chih‐Lin Lin
- Department of Gastroenterology, Renai Branch, Taipei City Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Wei-Wen Su
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Changhua Christian Hospital, Changhua, Taiwan
| | - Tzong-Hsi Lee
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Far Eastern Memorial Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Te-Sheng Chang
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan and College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Jen Liu
- Hepatitis Research Center and Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chia-Yen Dai
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Jia-Horng Kao
- Hepatitis Research Center and Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Han-Chieh Lin
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Wan-Long Chuang
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Cheng-Yuan Peng
- Center for Digestive Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Wei- Tsai
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Yi Chen
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Ditmanson Medical Foundation Chiayi Christian Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Ming-Lung Yu
- School of Medicine and Doctoral Program of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, College of Medicine and Center of Excellence for Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - TACR Study Group
- School of Medicine and Doctoral Program of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, College of Medicine and Center of Excellence for Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatobiliary Division, Department of Internal Medicine and Hepatitis Center, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center, College of Medicine and Center for Liquid Biopsy and Cohort Research, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Ph.D. Program in Translational Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, and Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, E-Da Hospital, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine for International Students, College of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tainan Municipal Hospital (Managed By Show Chwan Medical Care Corporation), Tainan, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi Mei Medical Center, Yongkang District, Tainan, Taiwan
- Department of Internal Medicine, Dalin Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation, Chiayi, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, Tzuchi University, Hualien, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, St. Martin De Porres Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Taitung Mackay Memorial Hospital, Taitung, Taiwan
- Mackay Medical College, New Taipei City, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yuan’s General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tri-Service General Hospital, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Tri-Service General Hospital Penghu Branch, National Defense Medical Center, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University, Department of Internal Medicine, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology, Kaohsiung Armed Forces General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chi Mei Medical Center, Liouying, Tainan, Taiwan
- Lotung Poh-Ai Hospital, Yilan, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Division of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Shin Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
- Department of Medicine, Hualien Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation and Tzu Chi University, Hualien, Taiwan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Division of Internal Medicine, Show Chwan Memorial Hospital, Changhua, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
- Liver Center, Cathay General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Wen-Chih Wu Clinic, Fengshan, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Taoyuan General Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taoyuan, Taiwan
- Penghu Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Penghu, Taiwan
- Zhou Guoxiong Clinic, Penghu, Taiwan
- Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- National Taiwan University Hospital Hsin-Chu Branch, Hsinchu, Taiwan
- Liver Research Unit, Department of Hepato-Gastroenterology and Community Medicine Research Center, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital at Keelung, College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Keelung, Taiwan
- Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital, Buddhist Tzu Chi Medical Foundation and School of Medicine, Tzu Chi University, Taipei, Taiwan
- Cishan Hospital, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Renai Branch, Taipei City Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Changhua Christian Hospital, Changhua, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Far Eastern Memorial Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan and College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
- Hepatitis Research Center and Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Center for Digestive Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Ditmanson Medical Foundation Chiayi Christian Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
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10
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Zou Y, Yue M, Jia L, Wang Y, Chen H, Zhang A, Xia X, Liu W, Yu R, Yang S, Huang P. Accurate prediction of HCC risk after SVR in patients with hepatitis C cirrhosis based on longitudinal data. BMC Cancer 2023; 23:1147. [PMID: 38007418 PMCID: PMC10676612 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-023-11628-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most existing predictive models of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virologic response (SVR) are built on data collected at baseline and therefore have limited accuracy. The current study aimed to construct an accurate predictive model incorporating longitudinal data using a novel modeling strategy. The predictive performance of the longitudinal model was also compared with a baseline model. METHODS A total of 400 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who achieved SVR with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) were enrolled in the study. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). Informative features were extracted from the longitudinal variables and then put into the random survival forest (RSF) to develop the longitudinal model. A baseline model including the same variables was built for comparison. RESULTS During a median follow-up time of approximately 5 years, 25 patients (8.9%) in the training set and 11 patients (9.2%) in the validation set developed HCC. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUROC) for the longitudinal model were 0.9507 (0.8838-0.9997), 0.8767 (0.6972,0.9918), and 0.8307 (0.6941,0.9993) for 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction, respectively. The brier scores of the longitudinal model were also relatively low for the 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction (0.0283, 0.0561, and 0.0501, respectively). In contrast, the baseline model only achieved mediocre AUROCs of around 0.6 (0.6113, 0.6213, and 0.6480, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Our longitudinal model yielded accurate predictions of HCC risk in patients with HCV-relate cirrhosis, outperforming the baseline model. Our model can provide patients with valuable prognosis information and guide the intensity of surveillance in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanzheng Zou
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China
| | - Ming Yue
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Linna Jia
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China
| | - Yifan Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, China
| | - Hongbo Chen
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, China
| | - Amei Zhang
- Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Yunnan, China
| | - Xueshan Xia
- Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Yunnan, China
- Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Wei Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing, China
| | - Rongbin Yu
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
| | - Sheng Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
| | - Peng Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
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11
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Moulaei K, Sharifi H, Bahaadinbeigy K, Haghdoost AA, Nasiri N. Machine learning for prediction of viral hepatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Med Inform 2023; 179:105243. [PMID: 37806178 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Revised: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/01/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Lack of accurate and timely diagnosis of hepatitis poses obstacles to effective treatment, disease progression prevention, complication reduction, and life-saving interventions of patients. Utilizing machine learning can greatly enhance the achievement of timely and precise disease diagnosis. Therefore, we carried out this systematic review and meta-analysis to explore the performance of machine learning algorithms in predicting viral hepatitis. METHODS Using an extensive literature search in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases until June 15, 2023, English publications on hepatitis prediction using machine learning algorithms were included. Two authors independently extracted pertinent information from the selected studies. The PRISMA 2020 checklist was followed for study selection and result reporting. The risk of bias was checked using the International Journal of Medical Informatics (IJMEDI) checklist. Data were analyzed using the 'metandi' command in Stata 17. RESULTS Twenty-one original studies were included, covering 82 algorithms. Sixteen studies utilized five algorithms to predict hepatitis B. Ten studies used five algorithms for hepatitis C prediction. For hepatitis B prediction, the SVM algorithms demonstrated the highest sensitivity (90.0%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 77.0%-96.0%), specificity (94%; 95% CI: 90.0%-97.0%), and a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 145 (95% CI: 37.0-559.0). In the case of hepatitis C, the KNN algorithms exhibited the highest sensitivity (80%; 95% CI:30.0%-97.0%), specificity (95%; 95% CI: 58.0%-99.0%), and DOR (72; 95% CI: 3.0-1644.0) for prediction. CONCLUSION SVM and KNN demonstrated superior performance in predicting hepatitis. The proper algorithm along with clinical practice could improve hepatitis prediction and management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khadijeh Moulaei
- Department of Health Information Technology, Faculty of Paramedical, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
| | - Hamid Sharifi
- HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | | | - Ali Akbar Haghdoost
- Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Naser Nasiri
- School of Public Health, Jiroft University of Medical Sciences, Jiroft, Kerman, Iran.
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12
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Ajuwon BI, Awotundun ON, Richardson A, Roper K, Sheel M, Rahman N, Salako A, Lidbury BA. Machine learning prediction models for clinical management of blood-borne viral infections: a systematic review of current applications and future impact. Int J Med Inform 2023; 179:105244. [PMID: 37820561 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/03/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Machine learning (ML) prediction models to support clinical management of blood-borne viral infections are becoming increasingly abundant in medical literature, with a number of competing models being developed for the same outcome or target population. However, evidence on the quality of these ML prediction models are limited. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the development and quality of reporting of ML prediction models that could facilitate timely clinical management of blood-borne viral infections. METHODS We conducted narrative evidence synthesis following the synthesis without meta-analysis guidelines. We searched PubMed and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for all studies applying ML models for predicting clinical outcomes associated with hepatitis B virus (HBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), or hepatitis C virus (HCV). RESULTS We found 33 unique ML prediction models aiming to support clinical decision making. Overall, 12 (36.4%) focused on HBV, 10 (30.3%) on HCV, 10 on HIV (30.3%) and two (6.1%) on co-infection. Among these, six (18.2%) addressed the diagnosis of infection, 16 (48.5%) the prognosis of infection, eight (24.2%) the prediction of treatment response, two (6.1%) progression through a cascade of care, and one (3.03%) focused on the choice of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Nineteen prediction models (57.6%) were developed using data from high-income countries. Evaluation of prediction models was limited to measures of performance. Detailed information on software code accessibility was often missing. Independent validation on new datasets and/or in other institutions was rarely done. CONCLUSION Promising approaches for ML prediction models in blood-borne viral infections were identified, but the lack of robust validation, interpretability/explainability, and poor quality of reporting hampered their clinical relevance. Our findings highlight important considerations that can inform standard reporting guidelines for ML prediction models in the future (e.g., TRIPOD-AI), and provides critical data to inform robust evaluation of the models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Busayo I Ajuwon
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia; Department of Biosciences and Biotechnology, Faculty of Pure and Applied Sciences, Kwara State University, Malete, Nigeria.
| | - Oluwatosin N Awotundun
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| | - Alice Richardson
- Statistical Support Network, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia
| | - Katrina Roper
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
| | - Meru Sheel
- Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Nurudeen Rahman
- Department of Medical Parasitology and Infection Biology, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Abideen Salako
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Nigerian Institute of Medical Research, Yaba, Lagos State, Nigeria
| | - Brett A Lidbury
- National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, ANU College of Health and Medicine, The Australian National University, Acton, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
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13
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Lilhore UK, Manoharan P, Sandhu JK, Simaiya S, Dalal S, Baqasah AM, Alsafyani M, Alroobaea R, Keshta I, Raahemifar K. Hybrid model for precise hepatitis-C classification using improved random forest and SVM method. Sci Rep 2023; 13:12473. [PMID: 37528148 PMCID: PMC10394001 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-36605-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 08/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a viral infection that causes liver inflammation. Annually, approximately 3.4 million cases of HCV are reported worldwide. A diagnosis of HCV in earlier stages helps to save lives. In the HCV review, the authors used a single ML-based prediction model in the current research, which encounters several issues, i.e., poor accuracy, data imbalance, and overfitting. This research proposed a Hybrid Predictive Model (HPM) based on an improved random forest and support vector machine to overcome existing research limitations. The proposed model improves a random forest method by adding a bootstrapping approach. The existing RF method is enhanced by adding a bootstrapping process, which helps eliminate the tree's minor features iteratively to build a strong forest. It improves the performance of the HPM model. The proposed HPM model utilizes a 'Ranker method' to rank the dataset features and applies an IRF with SVM, selecting higher-ranked feature elements to build the prediction model. This research uses the online HCV dataset from UCI to measure the proposed model's performance. The dataset is highly imbalanced; to deal with this issue, we utilized the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE). This research performs two experiments. The first experiment is based on data splitting methods, K-fold cross-validation, and training: testing-based splitting. The proposed method achieved an accuracy of 95.89% for k = 5 and 96.29% for k = 10; for the training and testing-based split, the proposed method achieved 91.24% for 80:20 and 92.39% for 70:30, which is the best compared to the existing SVM, MARS, RF, DT, and BGLM methods. In experiment 2, the analysis is performed using feature selection (with SMOTE and without SMOTE). The proposed method achieves an accuracy of 41.541% without SMOTE and 96.82% with SMOTE-based feature selection, which is better than existing ML methods. The experimental results prove the importance of feature selection to achieve higher accuracy in HCV research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Umesh Kumar Lilhore
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chandigarh University, Gharuan, Mohali, Punjab, 140413, India
| | - Poongodi Manoharan
- College of Science and Engineering, Qatar Foundation, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar.
| | - Jasminder Kaur Sandhu
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chandigarh University, Gharuan, Mohali, Punjab, 140413, India
| | - Sarita Simaiya
- Apex Institute of Technology (CSE), Chandigarh University, Gharuan, Mohali, Punjab, 140413, India
| | - Surjeet Dalal
- Amity School of Engineering and Technology, Amity University Haryana, Gurugram, India
| | - Abdullah M Baqasah
- Department of Information Technology, College of Computers and Information Technology, Taif University, Taif, 21974, Saudi Arabia
| | - Majed Alsafyani
- Department of Computer Science, College of Computers and Information Technology, Taif University, P. O. Box 11099, Taif, 21944, Saudi Arabia
| | - Roobaea Alroobaea
- Department of Computer Science, College of Computers and Information Technology, Taif University, P. O. Box 11099, Taif, 21944, Saudi Arabia
| | - Ismail Keshta
- Computer Science and Information Systems Department, College of Applied Sciences, AlMaarefa University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Kaamran Raahemifar
- College of Information Sciences and Technology, Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Program, Penn State University, State College, PA, 16801, USA
- School of Optometry and Vision Science, Faculty of Science, University of Waterloo, 200 University, Waterloo, ON, N2L3G1, Canada
- Faculty of Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave W, Waterloo, Canada
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He Z, Tang D. Perioperative predictors of outcome of hepatectomy for HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1230164. [PMID: 37519791 PMCID: PMC10373594 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1230164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2023] [Accepted: 06/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is identified as a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), resulting in so-called hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HBV-related HCC). Hepatectomy for HCC is acknowledged as an efficient treatment strategy, especially for early HCC. Furthermore, patients with advanced HCC can still obtain survival benefits through surgical treatment combined with neoadjuvant therapy, adjuvant therapy, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, and radiofrequency ablation. Therefore, preoperative and postoperative predictors of HBV-related HCC have crucial indicative functions for the follow-up treatment of patients with feasible hepatectomy. This review covers a variety of research results on preoperative and postoperative predictors of hepatectomy for HBV-related HCC over the past decade and in previous landmark studies. The relevant contents of Hepatitis C virus-related HCC, non-HBV non-HCV HCC, and the artificial intelligence application in this field are briefly addressed in the extended content. Through the integration of this review, a large number of preoperative and postoperative factors can predict the prognosis of HBV-related HCC, while most of the predictors have no standardized thresholds. According to the characteristics, detection methods, and application of predictors, the predictors can be divided into the following categories: 1. serological and hematological predictors, 2. genetic, pathological predictors, 3. imaging predictors, 4. other predictors, 5. analysis models and indexes. Similar results appear in HCV-related HCC, non-HBV non-HCV HCC. Predictions based on AI and big biological data are actively being applied. A reasonable prediction model should be established based on the economic, health, and other levels in specific countries and regions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Di Tang
- Department of General Surgery, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China
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15
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Bo Z, Chen B, Yang Y, Yao F, Mao Y, Yao J, Yang J, He Q, Zhao Z, Shi X, Chen J, Yu Z, Yang Y, Wang Y, Chen G. Machine learning radiomics to predict the early recurrence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after curative resection: A multicentre cohort study. Eur J Nucl Med Mol Imaging 2023; 50:2501-2513. [PMID: 36922449 DOI: 10.1007/s00259-023-06184-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Accepted: 02/28/2023] [Indexed: 03/18/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Postoperative early recurrence (ER) leads to a poor prognosis for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) radiomics models to predict ER in ICC after curative resection. METHODS Patients with ICC undergoing curative surgery from three institutions were retrospectively recruited and assigned to training and external validation cohorts. Preoperative arterial and venous phase contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images were acquired and segmented. Radiomics features were extracted and ranked through their importance. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify clinical characteristics. Various ML algorithms were used to construct radiomics-based models, and the predictive performance was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS 127 patients were included for analysis: 90 patients in the training set and 37 patients in the validation set. Ninety-two patients (72.4%) experienced recurrence, including 71 patients exhibiting ER. Male sex, microvascular invasion, TNM stage, and serum CA19-9 were identified as independent risk factors for ER, with the corresponding clinical model having a poor predictive performance (AUC of 0.685). Fifty-seven differential radiomics features were identified, and the 10 most important features were utilized for modelling. Seven ML radiomics models were developed with a mean AUC of 0.87 ± 0.02, higher than the clinical model. Furthermore, the clinical-radiomics models showed similar predictive performance to the radiomics models (AUC of 0.87 ± 0.03). CONCLUSION ML radiomics models based on CECT are valuable in predicting ER in ICC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiyuan Bo
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
- Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Hepato-Pancreatic Diseases of Zhejiang Province, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Bo Chen
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Yi Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Management, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Fei Yao
- Department of Radiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Yicheng Mao
- Department of Optometry and Ophthalmology College, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Jiangqiao Yao
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Jinhuan Yang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Qikuan He
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Zhengxiao Zhao
- Department of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xintong Shi
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jicai Chen
- Department of General Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Zhengping Yu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China
| | - Yunjun Yang
- Department of Radiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China.
| | - Yi Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Management, Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China.
| | - Gang Chen
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China.
- Key Laboratory of Diagnosis and Treatment of Severe Hepato-Pancreatic Diseases of Zhejiang Province, the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, China.
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16
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Licata A, Russo GT, Giandalia A, Cammilleri M, Asero C, Cacciola I. Impact of Sex and Gender on Clinical Management of Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease and Type 2 Diabetes. J Pers Med 2023; 13:jpm13030558. [PMID: 36983739 PMCID: PMC10051396 DOI: 10.3390/jpm13030558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 03/13/2023] [Indexed: 03/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Gender differences in the epidemiology, pathophysiological mechanisms and clinical features in chronic liver diseases that may be associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) have been increasingly reported in recent years. This sexual dimorphism is due to a complex interaction between sex- and gender-related factors, including biological, hormonal, psychological and socio-cultural variables. However, the impact of sex and gender on the management of T2D subjects with liver disease is still unclear. In this regard, sex-related differences deserve careful consideration in pharmacology, aimed at improving drug safety and optimising medical therapy, both in men and women with T2D; moreover, low adherence to and persistence of long-term drug treatment is more common among women. A better understanding of sex- and gender-related differences in this field would provide an opportunity for a tailored diagnostic and therapeutic approach to the management of T2D subjects with chronic liver disease. In this narrative review, we summarized available data on sex- and gender-related differences in chronic liver disease, including metabolic, autoimmune, alcoholic and virus-related forms and their potential evolution towards cirrhosis and/or hepatocarcinoma in T2D subjects, to support their appropriate and personalized clinical management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Licata
- Internal Medicine & Hepatology Unit, University Hospital of Palermo, PROMISE, University of Palermo, 90127 Palermo, Italy
| | - Giuseppina T Russo
- Internal Medicine and Diabetology Unit, University of Messina, 98125 Messina, Italy
| | - Annalisa Giandalia
- Internal Medicine and Hepatology Unit, University Hospital of Messina, 98124 Messina, Italy
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Messina, 98124 Messina, Italy
| | - Marcella Cammilleri
- Internal Medicine & Hepatology Unit, University Hospital of Palermo, PROMISE, University of Palermo, 90127 Palermo, Italy
| | - Clelia Asero
- Internal Medicine and Hepatology Unit, University Hospital of Messina, 98124 Messina, Italy
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Messina, 98124 Messina, Italy
| | - Irene Cacciola
- Internal Medicine and Hepatology Unit, University Hospital of Messina, 98124 Messina, Italy
- Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Messina, 98124 Messina, Italy
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Nguyen VH, Huang DQ, Le MH, Jin M, Lee EY, Henry L, Nerurkar SN, Ogawa E, Thin KN, Teng MLP, Goh KS, Kai JCY, Wong C, Tan DJH, Thuy LTT, Hai H, Enomoto M, Cheung R, Nguyen MH. Global treatment rate and barriers to direct-acting antiviral therapy: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 146 studies and 1 760 352 hepatitis C virus patients. Liver Int 2023; 43:1195-1203. [PMID: 36825358 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15550] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2022] [Revised: 02/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 02/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global data on the treatment rate with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) are sparse. We aimed to evaluate the CHC treatment rate and barriers to treatment in the DAA era. METHODS We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane from inception to 5 August 2021, for relevant articles. Patients treated with DAAs without interferon (IFN) therapy were categorized as IFN-free DAAs. Patients receiving DAA with IFN or unclear IFN status were categorized as DAA/IFN. RESULTS We identified and analysed data from 146 studies (1 760 352 CHC patients). DAA/IFN treatment rate was 16.0% (95% CI: 9.9-23.3, 49 studies, 886 535 patients). IFN-free DAA treatment rate was 52.3% (95% CI: 46.2-58.4, 123 studies, 1 276 754 patients): 45.4% in North America, 64.2% in South America (1 study), 90.4% in Africa (most data from Egypt), 54.4% in Europe, 60.7% in Australia and 60.5% in Asia, (p < .0001); 49% with hepatitis B co-infection and 32.3% with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Treatment was not a priority in 22.8% of patients in Europe and 16.7% in Australia, compared to only 4.8% in North America and 2.1% in Asia (p < .0001). Poor adherence to clinical follow-up was the cause of no treatment in 74.7% of patients in Australia, 37.0% in North America, 7.9% in Europe and 14.3% in Asia (p < .0001). CONCLUSION Though a marked improvement from IFN/DAA, the treatment rate with IFN-free DAA remains suboptimal (52.3% overall, 32.3% in HCC patients). Non-adherence to clinical follow-up and lack of disease awareness were treatment barriers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vy H Nguyen
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, California, USA.,Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Daniel Q Huang
- Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.,Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Michael H Le
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, California, USA.,Larner College of Medicine at the University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA
| | - Michelle Jin
- Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Eunice Y Lee
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, California, USA
| | - Linda Henry
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, California, USA
| | - Sanjna N Nerurkar
- Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Eiichi Ogawa
- Department of General Internal Medicine, Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Khin N Thin
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, California, USA
| | - Margaret L P Teng
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Kang S Goh
- Department of Internal Medicine, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Justin C Y Kai
- Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Connie Wong
- Lane Medical Library, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California, USA
| | - Darren J H Tan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Le T T Thuy
- Department of Hepatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka Metropolitan University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Hoang Hai
- Department of Hepatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka Metropolitan University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Masaru Enomoto
- Department of Hepatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka Metropolitan University, Osaka, Japan
| | - Ramsey Cheung
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System, Palo Alto, California, USA
| | - Mindie H Nguyen
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, California, USA.,Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, California, USA
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18
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Nishida N, Kudo M. Artificial intelligence models for the diagnosis and management of liver diseases. Ultrasonography 2023; 42:10-19. [PMID: 36443931 PMCID: PMC9816706 DOI: 10.14366/usg.22110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 09/06/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
With the development of more advanced methods for the diagnosis and treatment of diseases, the data required for medical care are becoming complex, and misinterpretation of information due to human error may result in serious consequences. Human error can be avoided with the support of artificial intelligence (AI). AI models trained with various medical data for diagnosis and management of liver diseases have been applied to hepatitis, fatty liver disease, liver cirrhosis, and liver cancer. Some of these models have been reported to outperform human experts in terms of performance, indicating their potential for supporting clinical practice given their high-speed output. This paper summarizes the recent advances in AI for liver disease and introduces the AI-aided diagnosis of liver tumors using B-mode ultrasonography.
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Affiliation(s)
- Naoshi Nishida
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kindai University Faculty of Medicine, Osaka, Japan,Correspondence to: Naoshi Nishida, MD, PhD, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kindai University Faculty of Medicine, 377-2 Ohno-higashi, Osaka-sayama, Osaka 589-8511, Japan Tel. +81-72-366-0221 Fax. +81-72-367-8220 E-mail:
| | - Masatoshi Kudo
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kindai University Faculty of Medicine, Osaka, Japan
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19
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Park H, Lo-Ciganic WH, Huang J, Wu Y, Henry L, Peter J, Sulkowski M, Nelson DR. Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for predicting direct-acting antiviral treatment failure among patients with chronic hepatitis C infection. Sci Rep 2022; 12:18094. [PMID: 36302828 PMCID: PMC9613877 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-22819-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the availability of efficacious direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, the number of people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) continues to rise, and HCV remains a leading cause of liver-related morbidity, liver transplantation, and mortality. We developed and validated machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict DAA treatment failure. Using the HCV-TARGET registry of adults who initiated all-oral DAA treatment, we developed elastic net (EN), random forest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and feedforward neural network (FNN) ML algorithms. Model performances were compared with multivariable logistic regression (MLR) by assessing C statistics and other prediction evaluation metrics. Among 6525 HCV-infected adults, 308 patients (4.7%) experienced DAA treatment failure. ML models performed similarly in predicting DAA treatment failure (C statistic [95% CI]: EN, 0.74 [0.69-0.79]; RF, 0.74 [0.69-0.80]; GBM, 0.72 [0.67-0.78]; FNN, 0.75 [0.70-0.80]), and all 4 outperformed MLR (C statistic [95% CI]: 0.51 [0.46-0.57]), and EN used the fewest predictors (n = 27). With Youden index, the EN had 58.4% sensitivity and 77.8% specificity, and nine patients were needed to evaluate to identify 1 DAA treatment failure. Over 60% treatment failure were classified in top three risk decile subgroups. EN-identified predictors included male sex, treatment < 8 weeks, treatment discontinuation due to adverse events, albumin level < 3.5 g/dL, total bilirubin level > 1.2 g/dL, advanced liver disease, and use of tobacco, alcohol, or vitamins. Addressing modifiable factors of DAA treatment failure may reduce the burden of retreatment. Machine learning algorithms have the potential to inform public health policies regarding curative treatment of HCV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haesuk Park
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, HPNP Building Room 3325, 1225 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.
| | - Wei-Hsuan Lo-Ciganic
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, HPNP Building Room 3325, 1225 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA
| | - James Huang
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, HPNP Building Room 3325, 1225 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA
| | - Yonghui Wu
- Health Outcomes & Biomedical Informatics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Linda Henry
- Department of Pharmaceutical Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, HPNP Building Room 3325, 1225 Center Drive, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA
| | - Joy Peter
- Department of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Mark Sulkowski
- Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David R Nelson
- Department of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
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