Deciphering the enigma of human-lion coexistence in India

Asiatic lions (Panthera leo leo) have increased in range and abundance in densely populated India, a rare example of coexistence between humans and large carnivores. We sought to determine the underlying mechanisms of this coexistence and to infer lessons that could help conserve carnivores in multiuse landscapes, globally. Using data collected from 2012 to 2017 from conflict-compensation records, we studied the spatiotemporal trends in human-lion conflict across the lion's range in India. We also surveyed 1434 people from 277 villages across the gradient of conflict to better understand their tolerance of lions. The cumulative number of villages that registered attacks on livestock increased by 105 (9.61%) per year, suggestive of an expanding lion population. Livestock killed per village increased by 15% per year, indicative of increasing lion density. Attacks on humans averaged 20.8 (SE 2.3) per year and showed no trend. Attacks on humans were spatially correlated with livestock predation, and both were best explained by proximity to lion tourism areas, lion habitat, and areas with low lion density. Intolerance of lions was related to economic losses (49.8%) and fear of lions (43.9%). Communities that lived longer with lions had higher probability of tolerating lions and practiced livestock-rearing techniques that minimized predation. Human-lion coexistence is common in India as indicated by 61% of respondents being tolerant of lions. This coexistence is related to a mix of sociocultural tolerance, enforced legal protection, government compensation, and mutual adaptation of humans and lions to each other. Lions receive food subsidies from people and space, and local communities have enhanced livelihoods through tourism and bolstered sociocultural norms. Institutionalizing lion-based ecotourism on community lands could support coexistence in the long term. Only through such participatory and profitable land-sharing approaches can we best sync the well-being of local communities with sustainable carnivore conservation.

Comprehensive assessment of snow leopard distribution and population in the Indian Trans-Himalaya, Ladakh: Standardizing methods for evidence-based conservation

Effective conservation of threatened species depends on accurate scientific assessment of their occurrence and population status. This information is often lacking or has poor scientific reliability for low-density carnivores, such as snow leopards (Panthera uncia) that inhabit remote and challenging habitats. We address prevalent sampling and study design limitations and evaluate the population and distribution of snow leopards and their prey using a double sampling approach across the Trans-Himalayan Ladakh (~59,000 km2), India. We used spatial data on the sign occurrence of snow leopards, collected by replicate sign surveys of 6,149 km to model occupancy and potential distribution. Regions representing varying occupancy were used to stratify density-estimation using spatially explicit capture-recapture by sampling 956 camera trap locations with an effort of 97,313 trap nights. Camera traps captured 26,130 images of 126 unique snow leopards identified by a pattern recognition program using their distinctive forehead pelage patterns. Low-elevation grassy and resource-rich regions, with moderate climatic conditions and complex terrain had higher presence of herbivores and consequently higher occupancy of snow leopards. Density of snow leopards was estimated at ~ 1 per 100 km2 with a large movement parameter (σ) of 4.09 (SE 0.15) km and detection at home-range centre (g0) of 0.003 (SE 0.0003). Snow leopard density reached up to 3.18 per 100 km2 and was driven by the distribution of their wild and domestic prey in suitable habitats. The snow leopards in Ladakh occupied 47,572 km2, holding globally highest extensive densities of snow leopards in Hemis National Park (2.073 ± 0.278 per 100 km²), Kargil (1.257 ± 0.480 per 100 km²), and Leh (1.029 ± 0.434 per 100 km²), and making one of the world's largest contiguous populations of 477 (CI 380-598) snow leopards. This population holds global significance as an important source of snow leopards, predominantly (61%) occurring in multi-use areas and closely linked with wild and domestic herbivores. We offer a robust and comprehensive method for large-scale population estimation of snow leopards, applicable globally. The co-occurrence of humans and wildlife across the landscape underscores the need for inclusive and evidence-based conservation planning, especially considering the impending large-scale infrastructural development and escalating global climatic changes.

Den site selection by Indian gray wolves in tribal landscapes of Mahuadanr Wolf Sanctuary considering ecological and cultural factors

Species that rely on dens are integral to sustaining ecosystem balance, and gaining insight into their den selection patterns is essential for successful conservation efforts. The Indian Gray Wolf (Canis lupus pallipes) faces significant challenges in finding safe denning sites amidst India's human-dominated landscapes. The survival of this species depends heavily on its ability to coexist with humans. As one of the oldest wolf lineages, they have evolved separately and adapted to the semi-arid landscapes of India. This study investigates den-site selection within a 64 km² area of the MWS, Jharkhand, India. Between 2022 and 2024, 18 active dens were identified and analysed against 40 random locations to assess the importance of habitat and anthropogenic variables in den-site selection. The results revealed that dens are typically found in areas with abundant Sal (Shorea robusta) trees, steep slopes, and increased shrub cover. This highlights the significance of the Sal tree, where its cultural association helps minimize disturbances, indirectly supporting wolf breeding habitats. This study emphasizes the need to understand the ecological requirements of the Indian Gray Wolf and incorporate traditional cultural practices into wildlife management strategies. By shedding light on den site selection in tribal landscapes, the study offers crucial insights for wildlife managers, enabling them to develop effective conservation plans that promote the survival of Indian wolves and foster coexistence with humans amid evolving environmental conditions.

Tiger recovery amid people and poverty

Recovery of large yet ecologically important carnivores poses a formidable global challenge. Tiger (Panthera tigris) recovery in India, the world's most populated region, offers a distinct opportunity to evaluate the socio-ecological drivers of megafauna recovery. Tiger occupancy increased by 30% (at 2929 square kilometers per year) over the past two decades, leading to the largest global population occupying ~138,200 square kilometers. Tigers persistently occupied human-free, prey-rich protected areas (35,255 square kilometers) but also colonized proximal connected habitats that were shared with ~60 million people. Tiger absence and extinction were characterized by armed conflict, poverty, and extensive land-use changes. Sparing land for tigers enabled land sharing, provided that socioeconomic prosperity and political stability prevailed. India's tiger recovery offers cautious optimism for megafauna recovery, particularly in the Global South.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tigers in response to prey species and anthropogenic activities

Understanding factors influencing the spatio-temporal patterns of apex predators is prerequisite for their conservation. We studied space use and diel activity of tigers (Panthera tigris) in response to prey availability and anthropogenic activities with trail cameras in Nepal during December 2022-March 2023. We used hierarchical occupancy models to evaluate how prey availability (space use of prey species) and anthropogenic activities (number of humans and livestock) contributed to the tigers' space use, while accounting for landscape effects on their detection probability. We calculated the diel activity overlap between tigers and each prey species, as well as with humans and livestock. Overall, tigers had relatively high space use (0.540 ± 0.092) and detection probability (0.742 ± 0.073), and were most influenced by space use of wild pig (Sus scrofa), gaur (Bos gaurus) and number of livestock detections. Tigers exhibited extensive temporal overlap with their prey, but not with humans or livestock. Our study demonstrates that humans and tigers can co-occur in a landscape by altering diel activity and potentially moving cryptically in certain landscapes, provided adequate prey is available. Management actions that ensure adequate prey availability can benefit tiger conservation.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Selection of Reintroduction Sites for the South China Tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) in China

The South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) is a tiger subspecies unique to China and one of the top ten endangered species in the world. It used to play an important role in the overall function of the ecosystem. This study rationally screened out key prey species of the South China tiger-the Chinese serow, Chinese goral, tufted deer, water deer, Chinese muntjac, red muntjac, sambar deer, and wild boar. Candidate sites for the rewilding and reintroduction of the South China tiger were derived by exploring changes in suitable habitats for the prey using the MaxEnt model. The results show that: (1) by 2070, except for the high-suitability areas of water deer and Chinese muntjac, the areas of suitable habitats for the other six prey species would all have decreased significantly; (2) the location of the high-suitability area of the South China tiger obtained by superimposing the suitable areas of the eight prey species would be almost stable in 2050 and 2070, but the habitat index of some high- and medium-suitability areas would decrease and turn into low-suitability areas; (3) the core candidate sites were 83,415 km2 in total, of which 25,630 km2 overlapped with existing protected areas, accounting for 30.7% of the core candidate sites, and the remaining 69.3% of the core candidate sites were mostly distributed around the protected areas; (4) the maximum core candidate site area was projected to be 10,000 km2 by 2070, which could support a small population of 23 male tigers and 66 female tigers to survive and reproduce in the wild. This study revealed the core candidate sites for the rewilding of South China tigers and estimated the number of tigers that could be reintroduced to these areas, providing a preliminary research basis for promoting the rewilding of South China tigers in China.

Predator in proximity: how does a large carnivore respond to anthropogenic pressures at fine-scales? Implications for interface area management

Background

Driven by habitat loss and fragmentation, large carnivores are increasingly navigating human-dominated landscapes, where their activity is restricted and their behaviour altered. This movement, however, raises significant concerns and costs for people living nearby. While intricately linked, studies often isolate human and carnivore impacts, hindering effective management efforts. Hence, in this study, we brought these two into a common framework, focusing on an interface area between the critical tiger habitat and the human-dominated multiple-use buffer area of a central Indian protected area.

Methods

We employed a fine-scale camera trap survey complemented by GPS-collar movement data to understand spatio-temporal activity patterns and adjustments of tigers in response to anthropogenic pressures. We used an occupancy framework to evaluate space use, Bayesian circular GLMs to model temporal activity, and home range and step length analyses to assess the movement patterns of tigers. Further, we used predation-risk models to understand conflict patterns as a function of tiger presence and other habitat variables.

Results

Despite disturbance, a high proportion of the sampled area was occupied by 17 unique tigers (ψ = 0.76; CI [0.73-0.92]). The distance to villages (β ± SE = 0.63 ± 0.21) and the relative abundance of large-bodied wild prey (β ± SE = 0.72 ± 0.37) emerged as key predictors of tiger space use probability, indicating a preference for wild prey by tigers, while human influences constrained their habitat utilisation. Distance to villages was also identified as the most significant predictor of the tigers' temporal activity (μ ± σ = 3.03 ± 0.06 rad) that exhibited higher nocturnality near villages. A total of 11% of tiger home ranges were within village boundaries, accompanied by faster movement in these areas (displacement 40-82% higher). Livestock depredation probability by tigers increased with proximity to villages (P = 0.002) and highway (P = 0.003). Although tiger space use probability (P = 0.056) and wild prey abundance (P = 0.134) were non-significant at the 0.05 threshold, their presence in the best-fit predation-risk model suggests their contextual relevance for understanding conflict risk. The results highlight the importance of appropriately managing livestock near human infrastructures to effectively mitigate conflict.

Conclusions

Shared space of carnivores and humans requires dynamic site-specific actions grounded in evidence-based decision-making. This study emphasises the importance of concurrently addressing the intricate interactions between humans and large carnivores, particularly the latter's behavioural adaptations and role in conflict dynamics. Such an integrated approach is essential to unravel cause-effect relationships and promote effective interface management in human-dominated landscapes.

Navigating ecological novelty towards planetary stewardship: challenges and opportunities in biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere

Human-induced global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, biotic globalization, trophic downgrading and pervasive land-use intensification, are transforming Earth's biosphere, placing biodiversity and ecosystems at the forefront of unprecedented challenges. The Anthropocene, characterized by the importance of Homo sapiens in shaping the Earth system, necessitates a re-evaluation of our understanding and stewardship of ecosystems. This theme issue delves into the multifaceted challenges posed by the ongoing ecological planetary transformation and explores potential solutions across four key subthemes. Firstly, it investigates the functioning and stewardship of emerging novel ecosystems, emphasizing the urgent need to comprehend the dynamics of ecosystems under uncharted conditions. The second subtheme focuses on biodiversity projections under global change, recognizing the necessity of predicting ecological shifts in the Anthropocene. Importantly, the inherent uncertainties and the complexity of ecological responses to environmental stressors pose challenges for societal responses and for accurate projections of ecological change. The RAD framework (resist-accept-direct) is highlighted as a flexible yet nuanced decision-making tool that recognizes the need for adaptive approaches, providing insights for directing and adapting to Anthropocene dynamics while minimizing negative impacts. The imperative to extend our temporal perspective beyond 2100 is emphasized, given the irreversible changes already set in motion. Advancing methods to study ecosystem dynamics under rising biosphere novelty is the subject of the third subtheme. The fourth subtheme emphasizes the importance of integrating human perspectives into understanding, forecasting and managing novel ecosystems. Cultural diversity and biological diversity are intertwined, and the evolving relationship between humans and ecosystems offers lessons for future stewardship. Achieving planetary stewardship in the Anthropocene demands collaboration across scales and integration of ecological and societal perspectives, scalable approaches fit to changing, novel ecological conditions, as well as cultural innovation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Predicting carrying capacity of a large carnivore from prey densities: a new approach

Background

Large carnivores play a crucial role in maintaining the balance of the ecosystem. Successful conservation initiatives have often led to a huge increase in predators which has often led to negative interactions with humans. Without the knowledge of the carrying capacity of the top predator, such decisions become challenging. Here, we have derived a new equation to estimate the carrying capacity of tigers based on the individual prey species density.

Methods

We used tiger densities and respective prey densities of different protected areas. Relative prey abundance was used instead of absolute prey density as this could be a better surrogate of the prey preference. We used a regression approach to derive the species-wise equation. We have also scaled these coefficients accordingly to control the variation in the standard error (heteroscedasticity) of the tiger density. Furthermore, we have extended this regression equation for different species to different weight classes for more generalized application of the method.

Results

The new equations performed considerably better compared to the earlier existing carrying capacity equations. Incorporating the species-wise approach in the equation also reflected the preference of the prey species for the tiger. This is the first carrying capacity equation where the individual prey densities are used to estimate the carnivore population density. The coefficient estimates of the model with the comparison with prey-predator power laws also reflect the differential effect of tigers on different prey species. The carrying capacity estimates will aid in a better understanding of the predator-prey interaction and will advance better management of the top predator.

Addressing the impact of canine distemper spreading on an isolated tiger population in northeast Asia

The continuation of the isolated Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) population living along the China-Russia border is facing serious challenges due to factors such as its small size (including 38 individuals) and canine distemper virus (CDV). We use a population viability analysis metamodel, which consists of a traditional individual-based demographic model linked to an epidemiological model, to assess options for controlling the impact of negative factors through domestic dog management in protected areas, increasing connectivity to the neighboring large population (including more than 400 individuals), and habitat expansion. Without intervention, under inbreeding depression of 3.14, 6.29, and 12.26 lethal equivalents, our metamodel predicted the extinction within 100 years is 64.4%, 90.6%, and 99.8%, respectively. In addition, the simulation results showed that dog management or habitat expansion independently will not ensure tiger population viability for the next 100 years, and connectivity to the neighboring population would only keep the population size from rapidly declining. However, when the above three conservation scenarios are combined, even at the highest level of 12.26 lethal equivalents inbreeding depression, population size will not decline and the probability of extinction will be <5.8%. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur tiger necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort. Our key management recommendations for this population underline the importance of reducing CDV threats and expanding tiger occupancy to its former range in China, but re-establishing habitat connectivity to the neighboring population is an important long-term objective.

Mitigating human-wildlife conflict and monitoring endangered tigers using a real-time camera-based alert system

The recovery of wild tigers in India and Nepal is a remarkable conservation achievement, but it sets the stage for increased human-wildlife conflict where parks are limited in size and where tigers reside outside reserves. We deployed an innovative technology, the TrailGuard AI camera-alert system, which runs on-the-edge artificial intelligence algorithms to detect tigers and poachers and transmit real-time images to designated authorities responsible for managing prominent tiger landscapes in India. We successfully captured and transmitted the first images of tigers using cameras with embedded AI and detected poachers. Notifications of tiger images were received in real time, approximately 30 seconds from camera trigger to appearing in a smart phone app. We review use cases of this AI-based real-time alert system for managers and local communities and suggest how the system could help monitor tigers and other endangered species, detect poaching, and provide early warnings for human-wildlife conflict.

Climate co-benefits of tiger conservation

Biodiversity conservation is increasingly being recognized as an important co-benefit in climate change mitigation programmes that use nature-based climate solutions. However, the climate co-benefits of biodiversity conservation interventions, such as habitat protection and restoration, remain understudied. Here we estimate the forest carbon storage co-benefits of a national policy intervention for tiger (Panthera tigris) conservation in India. We used a synthetic control approach to model avoided forest loss and associated carbon emissions reductions in protected areas that underwent enhanced protection for tiger conservation. Over a third of the analysed reserves showed significant but mixed effects, where 24% of all reserves successfully reduced the rate of deforestation and the remaining 9% reported higher-than-expected forest loss. The policy had a net positive benefit with over 5,802 hectares of averted forest loss, corresponding to avoided emissions of 1.08 ± 0.51 MtCO2 equivalent between 2007 and 2020. This translated to US$92.55 ± 43.56 million in ecosystem services from the avoided social cost of emissions and potential revenue of US$6.24 ± 2.94 million in carbon offsets. Our findings offer an approach to quantitatively track the carbon sequestration co-benefits of a species conservation strategy and thus help align the objectives of climate action and biodiversity conservation.

Connecting tiger (Panthera tigris) populations in Nepal: Identification of corridors among tiger-bearing protected areas

Habitat fragmentation and isolation threaten the survival of several wide-ranging species, such as tigers, through increased risk from diseases, disasters, climate change, and genetic depression. Identification of the habitat most likely to achieve connectivity among protected areas is vital for the long-term persistence of tigers. We aimed to improve the mapping of potential transfrontier protected area corridors for tigers by connecting sites within the Terai Arc Landscape in Nepal and to those in India, highlighting targeted conservation actions needed along these corridors to maintain long-term connectivity. We used least-cost corridor modeling and circuit theory to identify potential corridors and bottlenecks in the study area. The landscape's resistance to tigers' movement was gathered from expert opinions to inform corridor modeling. We identified nine potential tiger corridors in the Terai Arc Landscape-Nepal that aligned strongly with the remaining intact habitats of the Siwalik landscape, which could facilitate tiger movement. Banke-Bardia and Chitwan-Parsa-Valimiki complexes and Lagga-Bhagga and Khata corridors were identified as high-priority conservation cores and corridors. While our model exhibited congruence with most established corridors in the landscape, it has identified the need to enhance existing corridors to improve landscape connectivity. Several pinch points posing an increased risk to connectivity were identified. Most of these were located near the protected area boundaries and along the Nepal-India border. The Siwalik landscape holds the key to long-term connectivity in the study area; however, immediate conservation attention is needed, particularly at pinch points, to secure this connectivity for tigers. Validation of identified corridors through empirical research and their conservation is a priority.

Learning from perpetrator replacement to remove crime opportunities and prevent poaching of the Sundarbans tiger

Illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the leading causes of the decline in high-value species. Crime-reduction strategies to counter IWT can have unintended effects, with crime displacement occurring when offenders react to such interventions. Despite the value of understanding how and why displacement occurs for informing conservation strategies, few examples are published. We explored a case of perpetrator replacement following an intervention and drew lessons for conservation strategies for high-value species. Poaching and subsequent trade threaten the Sundarbans tiger (Panthera tigris). Pirate gangs were the dominant poachers from 1980 to 2017, but following an extensive campaign, the Sundarbans was declared pirate free in 2018. We interviewed 280 individuals, including 100 tiger poachers, from 26 administrative unions bordering the Sundarbans and used interviewee responses to compare the poaching situation during and after the pirate era. We analyzed the spatial distribution of tiger poachers among the unions and used crime script analysis of the dominant poacher type to identify intervention. Because pirates opportunistically poached tigers, the government's successful counter-pirate campaign inadvertently removed the dominant tiger poaching type. However, a temporary reduction in poaching was rapidly cancelled out by the emergence of at least 32 specialist tiger-poaching teams. With the risk of extortion and robbery from pirates gone, other groups increased the frequency of opportunistic and targeted tiger poaching. Based on expert interviews, we estimated that 341 tiger poachers of all types are active throughout the unions, with 79% of specialists concentrated in 27% of unions. The highly focused counter-pirate campaign reduced motivations and opportunities for piracy but left intact the opportunity structure and trade connections for tiger poaching, and with insufficient enforcement officers trading has flourished. Interventions targeting opportunities for poaching by specialist tiger poachers include heightened surveillance and reporting mechanisms and alternative livelihood provision to disincentivize poaching.

The tide of tiger poaching in India is rising! An investigation of the intertwined facts with a focus on conservation

Poaching and illegal trafficking are major threats to biodiversity, especially when endangered felids are concerned. Tigers are iconic animals, and there is huge demand for their body parts both in the national and international illegal markets. India forms the largest tiger conservation unit in the world and poaching is at its peak even though there are stringent laws and strict enforcement. In the present study, we analytically estimated the tiger seizure cases in India from 2001-2021 using newspaper archives as the main source of data. The data was geo-referenced to understand the details of seizure, demand, and locality. We statistically correlated the seizure rate with the density of tigers, tiger reserves, and various other socio-economic factors. Our result shows that skin, claws, bones, and teeth have more demand, with nails and teeth being the most preferred in local markets. The bones, flesh, and other parts were mostly seized in the border states of the north and eastern states. The intensity of seizures is very high in the states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Assam. From our analysis, we predict four trade routes for the export of the seized parts: the Nepal-Bhutan border, Assam border, the Brahmaputra, and the Mumbai port. This corresponds to the five tiger conservation blocks in India, and we observed the seizure rate is high near the Western Ghats region, which has not yet been noticed. Apart from the seizure, we are unconcerned with the seizure's origin or the local trading routes. The study demonstrates the importance of identifying the source population using DNA methods and carefully enforcing the rules in area of poaching. We assert that current approaches are incapable of resolving the issue and that a more precise and effective forensic procedure capable of resolving the issue at the minute local level is critical for precisely tracing trade channels.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10708-022-10633-4.

Shared Landscapes: Optimising Conservation Strategies Using Tiger and Elephant Sympatry in India

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) and tigers (Panthera tigris) share the same landscape in India. Elephants, which range over 239,171 km2, occupy 45.5% of the 433,261 km2 habitat that tigers inhabit. Equally, at least 40% of elephant corridors are used by tigers. A shared landscape offers opportunities for careful, integrated management strategies with shared resources. The species are protected differently in India, with tiger reserves being legal entities dedicated to the protection of tigers and their habitats, and Elephant Reserves being management units with no legal standing. With additional disparities in financial supports to tiger reserves—which receive 10 times more money than elephant reserves—it is obvious that the elephant reserves are being treated inequitably. Since the two species coexist in the same landscapes, efforts to protect tigers can help to make up for elephant conservation gaps and optimise the use of conservation resources by tweaking a few management and policy practices. In addition, the overlay of tigers using elephant corridors can efficiently secure habitat linkages for both species.

A systematic scoping review of tiger conservation in the Terai Arc Landscape and Himalayas

In the last decade the tiger Panthera tigris population in the Terai Arc Landscape and Himalayas has increased, while populations in other countries have remained below their conservation targets. Although there has been some research on tiger conservation in the Terai Arc Landscape and the Himalayas, scientists and managers have not catalogued and characterized tiger research in the region, with empirical findings scattered among disparate document types, journals and countries. Without a review of the tiger research in the Terai Arc Landscape and Himalayan region, it is difficult to analyse or change conservation policies, develop adaptation strategies, prioritize research, allocate resources or develop conservation strategies potentially employable elsewhere. We therefore conducted a systematic scoping review to identify focal research areas, the spatial and temporal distribution of study sites, general publication trends, the extent of empirical studies, and gaps in tiger conservation research in this region (which spans Bhutan, India and Nepal). Since 2000, 216 studies have been published on issues associated with tiger conservation in the Terai Arc Landscape and Himalayas, with an increasing number over time. Most empirical studies have focused on tiger habitat, ecology and conflicts in protected areas in the region's foothills. There are research gaps in high-altitude landscapes, social science investigations, conservation economics, and policy and institutional analyses.

Recent Trends in Survival and Mortality of Wolves in Minnesota, United States

Survival is a key determinant of population growth and persistence; computation and understanding of this metric is key to successful population management, especially for recovering populations of large carnivores such as wolves. Using a Bayesian frailty analytical approach, we evaluated information from 150 radio-tagged wolves over a 16-year time period to determine temporal trends and age- and sex-specific survival rates of wolves in Minnesota, United States. Based on our analyses, overall annual survival of wolves during the study was 0.67, with no clear evidence for age- or sex-specific differences in the population. Our model demonstrated statistical support for a temporal trend in annual survival; the highest survival was predicted at the beginning of the time series (0.87), with lowest survival (0.55) during 2018. We did not observe evidence that survival was markedly reduced during years when a regulated hunting and trapping season was implemented for wolves (years 2012–2014). However, cause-specific mortality analysis indicated that most mortality was human-caused. While the estimate for increasing human-caused mortality over time was positive, the evidence was not statistically significant. Anthropogenic causes resulted in ∼66% of known mortalities, including legal and illegal killing, and vehicular collisions. Trends in wolf survival in Minnesota may reflect an expanding distribution; wolf range has spread to areas with more human development during the study, presumably leading to increased hazard and reduced survival. Our results provide foundational information for evaluating and guiding future policy decisions pertaining to the Great Lakes wolf population.

Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Source-Dispersion Modeling Towards Sloth Bear–Human Conflict Management in Central India

The impact of humans on biodiversity, in the form of the spatially extensive occurrence of humans and subsequent habitat degradation, leads to negative interactions between humans and native wildlife. However, knowledge of the spatial and temporal interface between humans and wildlife is necessary to understand the root cause of such negative interactions, yet considerably understudied in the context of human-dominated landscapes in south and south-eastern Asia. We took this opportunity, gaining insights on seasonal spatial interaction and spatio-temporal overlap between sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) and humans, and subsequently predicted the conflict source sites and dispersion (i.e., hotspots) based on the robust geographic profiling (GP) method in the Sanjay Tiger Reserve (STR), a human-dominated landscape of central India. Detection data of sloth bear and human were obtained from camera trap survey conducted for two years (2017–2018) and records of conflict incidents (2009–2019) were collected from forest department. We found that sloth bears can co-occur with humans independently of seasons, based on occupancy models. However, during summer, higher temporal overlap (Δ4 = 0.46) and lower spatial overlap (0.31) were observed between sloth bears and humans. Contrastingly, lower temporal overlap (Δ4 = 0.29) and higher spatial overlap (0.44) were observed between the same two during winter. The activity patterns of sloth bears and humans differed significantly across seasons and within the same species in different seasons. Our findings indicated that significant changes in human activity, especially during summer, increased the likelihood of sloth bear-human interaction and subsequent conflict incidents. The mapping of conflict source and dispersion (with high accuracy) also predicted a greater probability of conflict during summer, compared to winter, and thus showed the successful application of GP models in this field. Also, camera trap data alone were able to predict the occurrence of hotspots, demonstrating the use of camera trap records in the successful prediction of source-dispersion of conflict. This study would be useful for decision-makers to alleviate sloth bear–human conflict based on insights on seasonal variation of spatio-temporal overlap between the two and direct conservation efforts accordingly.

How methodological changes have influenced our understanding of population structure in threatened species: insights from tiger populations across India

Unprecedented advances in sequencing technology in the past decade allow a better understanding of genetic variation and its partitioning in natural populations. Such inference is critical to conservation: to understand species biology and identify isolated populations. We review empirical population genetics studies of Endangered Bengal tigers within India, where 60-70% of wild tigers live. We assess how changes in marker type and sampling strategy have impacted inferences by reviewing past studies, and presenting three novel analyses including a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel, genome-wide SNP markers, and a whole-mitochondrial genome network. At a broad spatial scale, less than 100 SNPs revealed the same patterns of population clustering as whole genomes (with the exception of one additional population sampled only in the SNP panel). Mitochondrial DNA indicates a strong structure between the northeast and other regions. Two studies with more populations sampled revealed further substructure within Central India. Overall, the comparison of studies with varied marker types and sample sets allows more rigorous inference of population structure. Yet sampling of some populations is limited across all studies, and these should be the focus of future sampling efforts. We discuss challenges in our understanding of population structure, and how to further address relevant questions in conservation genetics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Celebrating 50 years since Lewontin's apportionment of human diversity'.

Forecasting effects of transport infrastructure on endangered tigers: a tool for conservation planning

The rapid development of transport infrastructure is a major threat to endangered species worldwide. Roads and railways can increase animal mortality, fragment habitats, and exacerbate other threats to biodiversity. Predictive models that forecast the future impacts to endangered species can guide land-use planning in ways that proactively reduce the negative effects of transport infrastructure. Agent-based models are well suited for predictive scenario testing, yet their application to endangered species conservation is rare. Here, we developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model to forecast the effects of transport infrastructure on an isolated tiger (Panthera tigris) population in Nepal's Chitwan National Park-a global biodiversity hotspot. Specifically, our model evaluated the independent and interactive effects of two mechanisms by which transport infrastructure may affect tigers: (a) increasing tiger mortality, e.g., via collisions with vehicles, and (b) depleting prey near infrastructure. We projected potential impacts on tiger population dynamics based on the: (i) existing transportation network in and near the park, and (ii) the inclusion of a proposed railway intersecting through the park's buffer zone. Our model predicted that existing roads would kill 46 tigers over 20 years via increased mortality, and reduced the adult tiger population by 39% (133 to 81). Adding the proposed railway directly killed 10 more tigers over those 20 years; deaths that reduced the overall tiger population by 30 more individuals (81 to 51). Road-induced mortality also decreased the proportion of time a tiger occupied a given site by 5 years in the 20-year simulation. Interestingly, we found that transportation-induced depletion of prey decreased tiger occupancy by nearly 20% in sites close to roads and the railway, thereby reducing tiger exposure to transportation-induced mortality. The results of our model constitute a strong argument for taking into account prey distributions into the planning of roads and railways. Our model can promote tiger-friendly transportation development, for example, by improving Environmental Impact Assessments, identifying "no go" zones where transport infrastructure should be prohibited, and recommending alternative placement of roads and railways.

Individual Identification of Large Felids in Field Studies: Common Methods, Challenges, and Implications for Conservation Science

Large felids represent some of the most threatened large mammals on Earth, critical for both tourism economies and ecosystem function. Most populations are in a state of decline, and their monitoring and enumeration is therefore critical for conservation. This typically rests on the accurate identification of individuals within their populations. We review the most common and current survey methods used in individual identification studies of large felid ecology (body mass &gt; 25 kg). Remote camera trap photography is the most extensively used method to identify leopards, snow leopards, jaguars, tigers, and cheetahs which feature conspicuous and easily identifiable coat patterning. Direct photographic surveys and genetic sampling are commonly used for species that do not feature easily identifiable coat patterning such as lions. We also discuss the accompanying challenges encountered in several field studies, best practices that can help increase the precision and accuracy of identification and provide generalised ratings for the common survey methods used for individual identification.

Synthesizing habitat connectivity analyses of a globally important human-dominated tiger-conservation landscape

As ecological data and associated analyses become more widely available, synthesizing results for effective communication with stakeholders is essential. In the case of wildlife corridors, managers in human-dominated landscapes need to identify both the locations of corridors and multiple stakeholders for effective oversight. We synthesized 5 independent studies of tiger (Panthera tigris) connectivity in central India, a global priority landscape for tiger conservation, to quantify agreement on landscape permeability for tiger movement and potential movement pathways. We used the latter analysis to identify connectivity areas on which studies agreed and stakeholders associated with these areas to determine relevant participants in corridor management. Three or more of the 5 studies' resistance layers agreed in 63% of the study area. Areas in which all studies agree on resistance were of primarily low (66%, e.g., forest) and high (24%, e.g., urban) resistance. Agreement was lower in intermediate resistance areas (e.g., agriculture). Despite these differences, the studies largely agreed on areas with high levels of potential movement: >40% of high average (top 20%) current-flow pixels were also in the top 20% of current-flow agreement pixels (measured by low variation), indicating consensus connectivity areas (CCAs) as conservation priorities. Roughly 70% of the CCAs fell within village administrative boundaries, and 100% overlapped forest department management boundaries, suggesting that people live and use forests within these priority areas. Over 16% of total CCAs' area was within 1 km of linear infrastructure (437 road, 170 railway, 179 transmission line, and 339 canal crossings; 105 mines within 1 km of CCAs). In 2019, 78% of forest land diversions for infrastructure and mining in Madhya Pradesh (which comprises most of the study region) took place in districts with CCAs. Acute competition for land in this landscape with globally important wildlife corridors calls for an effective comanagement strategy involving local communities, forest departments, Appendix 1 and infrastructure planners. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Distribution, Status, and Conservation of the Indian Peninsular Wolf

An understanding of the distribution range and status of a species is paramount for its conservation. We used photo captures from 26,838 camera traps deployed over 121,337 km2 along with data from radio-telemetry, published, and authenticated wolf sightings to infer wolf locations. A total of 3,324 presence locations were obtained and after accounting for spatial redundancy 574 locations were used for modeling in maximum entropy framework (MaxEnt) with ecologically relevant covariates to infer potentially occupied habitats. Relationships of wolf occurrence with eco-geographical variables were interpreted based on response curves. Wolves avoided dense wet forests, human disturbances beyond a threshold, arid deserts, and areas with high top-carnivore density, but occurred in semi-arid scrub, grassland, open forests systems with moderate winter temperatures. The potential habitat that can support wolf occupancy was 364,425 km2 with the largest wolf habitat available in western India (Saurashtra-Kachchh-Thar landscape 102,837 km2). Wolf habitats across all landscapes were connected with no barriers to dispersal. Breeding packs likely occurred in ≈89,000 km2. Using an average territory size of 188 (SE 23) km2, India could potentially hold 423–540 wolf packs. With an average adult pack size of 3 (SE 0.24), and a wolf density &lt; 1 per 100 km2 in occupied but non-breeding habitats, a wolf population of 3,170 (SE range 2,568–3,847) adults was estimated. The states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra were major strongholds for the species. Within forested landscapes, wolves tended to avoid top-carnivores but were more sympatric with leopards and dhole compared to tigers and lions. This ancient wolf lineage is threatened by habitat loss to development, hybridization with dogs, fast-traffic roads, diseases, and severe persecution by pastoralists. Their status is as precarious as that of the tiger, yet focused conservation efforts are lacking. Breeding habitat patches within each landscape identified in this study should be made safe from human persecution and free of feral dogs so as to permit packs to breed and successfully recruit individuals to ensure wolf persistence in the larger landscape for the long term.

Conservation Prioritization in a Tiger Landscape: Is Umbrella Species Enough?

Conservation approaches in tiger landscapes have focused on single species and their habitat. Further, the limited extent of the existing protected area network in India lacks representativeness, habitat connectivity, and integration in the larger landscape. Our objective was to identify sites important for connected tiger habitat and biodiversity potential in the Greater Panna Landscape, central India. Further, we aimed to set targets at the landscape level for conservation and prioritize these sites within each district in the landscape as specific management/conservation zones. We used earth observation data to derive an index of biodiversity potential. Marxan was used to identify sites that met tiger and biodiversity conservation targets with minimum costs. We found that to protect 50% of the tiger habitat with connectivity, 20% of the landscape area must be conserved. To conserve 100% of high biodiversity potential, 50% moderate biodiversity potential, and 25% low biodiversity potential, 55% of the landscape area must be conserved. To represent both tiger habitat and biodiversity, 62% of the total landscape area requires conservation or restoration intervention. The prioritized zones can prove significant for hierarchical decision making, involving multiple stakeholders in the landscape, including other tiger range areas.

High frequency of an otherwise rare phenotype in a small and isolated tiger population

Most endangered species exist today in small populations, many of which are isolated. Evolution in such populations is largely governed by genetic drift. Empirical evidence for drift affecting striking phenotypes based on substantial genetic data are rare. Approximately 37% of tigers (Panthera tigris) in the Similipal Tiger Reserve (in eastern India) are pseudomelanistic, characterized by wide, merged stripes. Camera trap data across the tiger range revealed the presence of pseudomelanistic tigers only in Similipal. We investigated the genetic basis for pseudomelanism and examined the role of drift in driving this phenotype's frequency. Whole-genome data and pedigree-based association analyses from captive tigers revealed that pseudomelanism cosegregates with a conserved and functionally important coding alteration in Transmembrane Aminopeptidase Q (Taqpep), a gene responsible for similar traits in other felid species. Noninvasive sampling of tigers revealed a high frequency of the Taqpep p.H454Y mutation in Similipal (12 individuals, allele frequency = 0.58) and absence from all other tiger populations (395 individuals). Population genetic analyses confirmed few (minimal number) tigers in Similipal, and its genetic isolation, with poor geneflow. Pairwise FST (0.33) at the mutation site was high but not an outlier. Similipal tigers had low diversity at 81 single nucleotide polymorphisms (mean heterozygosity = 0.28, SD = 0.27). Simulations were consistent with founding events and drift as possible drivers for the observed stark difference of allele frequency. Our results highlight the role of stochastic processes in the evolution of rare phenotypes. We highlight an unusual evolutionary trajectory in a small and isolated population of an endangered species.

Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction

Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.

Factors Influencing People's Response Toward Tiger Translocation in Satkosia Tiger Reserve, Eastern India

Local communities are an important stakeholder in any carnivore translocation programme and therefore, their acceptance of the translocation and support are essential to ensure its viability. Recent tiger augmentation efforts in Satkosia Tiger Reserve, India received mixed responses from the local communities, causing a stalemate in its progress. As a part of the adaptive management strategy, it was required to assess the concerns and issues to provide a practical solution. Hence, we analyzed the attitude of the people toward conservation in general and tiger specifically. We used structured questionnaire surveys and interviewed 1,932 households from 43 villages located in and around the reserve. We tested the influence of several variables representing four categories- (1) socio-economic, (2) ecosystem values and dependence, (3) relationship with the forest department and (4) losses and fear, on the attitude toward tiger conservation. The villages were clustered based on the responses received under these categories. While conserving forest was important to 91% of respondents, 71% of respondents supported wildlife conservation and only 35% felt important to conserve tiger. The logistic binary regression predicted that at the household level attitude toward tiger conservation is influenced positively by economic well-being, sense of forest ecosystem services, resource dependence and negatively influenced by restrictions from the forest department, and previous experience of loss due to wildlife. At the village level, literacy, resource dependence, access to clean cooking fuel and cooperation from the forest department predicted a positive attitude toward tiger conservation. Restriction from the forest department, fear for livestock, and experience of losses due to wildlife had a negative influence on attitude. We recommend that the villages in the landscape are prioritized based on their needs and accordingly, specific interventions are made to address their concerns. Future augmentation programme must give importance to intangible factors such as fear and perceived restrictions and opt for the involvement of the local community in the decision-making process.