Microclimates Might Limit Indirect Spillover of the Bat Borne Zoonotic Hendra Virus

Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Zoonotic spillover: Understanding basic aspects for better prevention

The transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is called “zoonotic spillover”. Most human infectious diseases (60-75%) are derived from pathogens that originally circulated in non-human animal species. This demonstrates that spillover has a fundamental role in the emergence of new human infectious diseases. Understanding the factors that facilitate the transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is essential to establish strategies focused on the reduction of the frequency of spillover events. In this context, this article describes the basic aspects of zoonotic spillover and the main factors involved in spillover events, considering the role of the inter-species interactions, phylogenetic distance between host species, environmental drivers, and specific characteristics of the pathogens, animals, and humans. As an example, the factors involved in the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are discussed, indicating what can be learned from this public health emergency, and what can be applied to the Brazilian scenario. Finally, this article discusses actions to prevent or reduce the frequency of zoonotic spillover events.

Hendra in the Hunter Valley

In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area.

No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels.

This event near the “horse capital of Australia”, is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events.

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In June 2019 the southernmost known equine case of Hendra virus was detected in the Hunter Valley, Australia.

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This signified an increase in potential equine and human populations at risk of infection.

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Interagency collaboration between animal and human health experts is essential in managing Hendra virus spillover events.

Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climatic Factors

Understanding environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns of disease can improve risk mitigation strategies. Hendra virus (HeV), discovered in Australia in 1994, spills over from bats (Pteropus sp.) to horses and thence to humans. Below latitude - 22°, almost all spillover events to horses occur during winter, and above this latitude spillover is aseasonal. We generated a statistical model of environmental drivers of HeV spillover per month. The model reproduced the spatiotemporal pattern of spillover risk between 1994 and 2015. The model was generated with an ensemble of methods for presence-absence data (boosted regression trees, random forests and logistic regression). Presences were the locations of horse cases, and absences per spatial unit (2.7 × 2.7 km pixels without spillover) were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales. The most influential factors indicate that spillover is associated with both cold-dry and wet conditions. Bimodal responses to several variables suggest spillover involves two systems: one above and one below a latitudinal area close to - 22°. Northern spillovers are associated with cold-dry and wet conditions, and southern with cold-dry conditions. Biologically, these patterns could be driven by immune or behavioural changes in response to food shortage in bats and horse husbandry. Future research should look for differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. Based on the predicted risk patterns by latitude, we recommend enhanced preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22° south.

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.

Changing resource landscapes and spillover of henipaviruses

Old World fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) provide critical pollination and seed dispersal services to forest ecosystems across Africa, Asia, and Australia. In each of these regions, pteropodids have been identified as natural reservoir hosts for henipaviruses. The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus and Nipah virus, which regularly spill over from bats to domestic animals and humans in Australia and Asia, and a suite of largely uncharacterized African henipaviruses. Rapid change in fruit bat habitat and associated shifts in their ecology and behavior are well documented, with evidence suggesting that altered diet, roosting habitat, and movement behaviors are increasing spillover risk of bat-borne viruses. We review the ways that changing resource landscapes affect the processes that culminate in cross-species transmission of henipaviruses, from reservoir host density and distribution to within-host immunity and recipient host exposure. We evaluate existing evidence and highlight gaps in knowledge that are limiting our understanding of the ecological drivers of henipavirus spillover. When considering spillover in the context of land-use change, we emphasize that it is especially important to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and resource provisioning on these processes, and to jointly consider changes in resource abundance, quality, and composition.