Horse populations are severely underestimated in a region at risk of Hendra virus spillover

OBJECTIVE

To identify the size and distribution of the horse population in the Northern Rivers Region of NSW, including changes from 2007 to 2021, to better understand populations at risk of Hendra virus transmission.

METHODS

Census data from the 2007 Equine Influenza (EI) outbreak were compared with data collected annually by New South Wales Local Land Services (LLS) (2011-2021), and with field observations via road line transects (2021).

RESULTS

The horse populations reported to LLS in 2011 (3000 horses; 0.77 horses/km2) was 145% larger than that reported during the EI outbreak in 2007 (1225 horses; 0.32 horses/km2). This was inconsistent with the 6% increase in horses recorded from 2011 to 2020 within the longitudinal LLS dataset. Linear modelling suggested the true horse population of this region in 2007 was at least double that reported at the time. Distance sampling in 2021 estimated the region's population at 10,185 horses (3.89 per km2; 95% CI = 4854-21,372). Field sampling and modelling identified higher horse densities in rural cropland, with the percentage of conservation land, modified grazing, and rural residential land identified as the best predictors of horse densities.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from the 2007 EI outbreak no longer correlates to the current horse population in size or distribution and was likely not a true representation at the time. Current LLS data also likely underestimates horse populations. Ongoing efforts to further quantify and map horse populations in Australia are important for estimating and managing the risk of equine zoonoses.

Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology

During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat¹. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors^2,3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified⁴. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics.

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.

Novel Hendra Virus Variant Circulating in Black Flying Foxes and Grey-Headed Flying Foxes, Australia

A novel Hendra virus variant, genotype 2, was recently discovered in a horse that died after acute illness and in Pteropus flying fox tissues in Australia. We detected the variant in flying fox urine, the pathway relevant for spillover, supporting an expanded geographic range of Hendra virus risk to horses and humans.

Counterintuitive scaling between population abundance and local density: Implications for modelling transmission of infectious diseases in bat populations

Models of host-pathogen interactions help to explain infection dynamics in wildlife populations and to predict and mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover. Insights from models inherently depend on the way contacts between hosts are modelled, and crucially, how transmission scales with animal density. Bats are important reservoirs of zoonotic disease and are among the most gregarious of all mammals. Their population structures can be highly heterogeneous, underpinned by ecological processes across different scales, complicating assumptions regarding the nature of contacts and transmission. Although models commonly parameterise transmission using metrics of total abundance, whether this is an ecologically representative approximation of host-pathogen interactions is not routinely evaluated. We collected a 13-month dataset of tree-roosting Pteropus spp. from 2,522 spatially referenced trees across eight roosts to empirically evaluate the relationship between total roost abundance and tree-level measures of abundance and density-the scale most likely to be relevant for virus transmission. We also evaluate whether roost features at different scales (roost level, subplot level, tree level) are predictive of these local density dynamics. Roost-level features were not representative of tree-level abundance (bats per tree) or tree-level density (bats per m² or m³ ), with roost-level models explaining minimal variation in tree-level measures. Total roost abundance itself was either not a significant predictor (tree-level 3D density) or only weakly predictive (tree-level abundance). This indicates that basic measures, such as total abundance of bats in a roost, may not provide adequate approximations for population dynamics at scales relevant for transmission, and that alternative measures are needed to compare transmission potential between roosts. From the best candidate models, the strongest predictor of local population structure was tree density within roosts, where roosts with low tree density had a higher abundance but lower density of bats (more spacing between bats) per tree. Together, these data highlight unpredictable and counterintuitive relationships between total abundance and local density. More nuanced modelling of transmission, spread and spillover from bats likely requires alternative approaches to integrating contact structure in host-pathogen models, rather than simply modifying the transmission function.

Conventional wisdom on roosting behavior of Australian flying-foxes-A critical review, and evaluation using new data

Fruit bats (Family: Pteropodidae) are animals of great ecological and economic importance, yet their populations are threatened by ongoing habitat loss and human persecution. A lack of ecological knowledge for the vast majority of Pteropodid species presents additional challenges for their conservation and management.In Australia, populations of flying-fox species (Genus: Pteropus) are declining and management approaches are highly contentious. Australian flying-fox roosts are exposed to management regimes involving habitat modification, through human-wildlife conflict management policies, or vegetation restoration programs. Details on the fine-scale roosting ecology of flying-foxes are not sufficiently known to provide evidence-based guidance for these regimes, and the impact on flying-foxes of these habitat modifications is poorly understood.We seek to identify and test commonly held understandings about the roosting ecology of Australian flying-foxes to inform practical recommendations and guide and refine management practices at flying-fox roosts.We identify 31 statements relevant to understanding of flying-fox roosting structure and synthesize these in the context of existing literature. We then contribute a contemporary, fine-scale dataset on within-roost structure to further evaluate 11 of these statements. The new dataset encompasses 13-monthly repeat measures from 2,522 spatially referenced roost trees across eight sites in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.We show evidence of sympatry and indirect competition between species, including spatial segregation of black and grey-headed flying-foxes within roosts and seasonal displacement of both species by little red flying-foxes. We demonstrate roost-specific annual trends in occupancy and abundance and provide updated demographic information including the spatial and temporal distributions of males and females within roosts.Insights from our systematic and quantitative study will be important to guide evidence-based recommendations on restoration and management and will be crucial for the implementation of priority recovery actions for the preservation of these species in the future.

Spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission in communally roosting species: Impacts of changing habitats on bat-virus dynamics

The spatial organization of populations determines their pathogen dynamics. This is particularly important for communally roosting species, whose aggregations are often driven by the spatial structure of their environment.

We develop a spatially explicit model for virus transmission within roosts of Australian tree‐dwelling bats (Pteropus spp.), parameterized to reflect Hendra virus. The spatial structure of roosts mirrors three study sites, and viral transmission between groups of bats in trees was modelled as a function of distance between roost trees. Using three levels of tree density to reflect anthropogenic changes in bat habitats, we investigate the potential effects of recent ecological shifts in Australia on the dynamics of zoonotic viruses in reservoir hosts.

We show that simulated infection dynamics in spatially structured roosts differ from that of mean‐field models for equivalently sized populations, highlighting the importance of spatial structure in disease models of gregarious taxa. Under contrasting scenarios of flying‐fox roosting structures, sparse stand structures (with fewer trees but more bats per tree) generate higher probabilities of successful outbreaks, larger and faster epidemics, and shorter virus extinction times, compared to intermediate and dense stand structures with more trees but fewer bats per tree. These observations are consistent with the greater force of infection generated by structured populations with less numerous but larger infected groups, and may flag an increased risk of pathogen spillover from these increasingly abundant roost types.

Outputs from our models contribute insights into the spread of viruses in structured animal populations, like communally roosting species, as well as specific insights into Hendra virus infection dynamics and spillover risk in a situation of changing host ecology. These insights will be relevant for modelling other zoonotic viruses in wildlife reservoir hosts in response to habitat modification and changing populations, including coronaviruses like SARS‐CoV‐2.

Dataset of 18O and 2H in streamflow across Canada: A national resource for tracing water sources, water balance and predictive modelling

Oxygen-18 and deuterium were measured in streamflow samples collected from 331 gauging stations across Canada during 2013 to 2019. This dataset includes 9206 isotopic analyses made on 4603 individual water samples, and an additional 1259 analysis repeats for quality assurance/quality control. We also include arithmetic and flow-weighted averages, and other basic statistics for stations where adequate data were available. Station data are provided including station code, name, province, latitude, longitude and drainage area. Flow data were extracted from the historical database of the Water Survey of Canada. Details on the preliminary application of these data are provided in "18O and 2H in streamflow across Canada" [1]. Overall, these data are expected to be useful when combined with precipitation datasets and analytical or numerical models for water resource management and planning, including tracing streamflow source, water balance, evapotranspiration partitioning, residence time analysis, and early detection of climate and land use changes in Canada.

Hendra in the Hunter Valley

In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area.

No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels.

This event near the “horse capital of Australia”, is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events.

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In June 2019 the southernmost known equine case of Hendra virus was detected in the Hunter Valley, Australia.

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This signified an increase in potential equine and human populations at risk of infection.

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Interagency collaboration between animal and human health experts is essential in managing Hendra virus spillover events.

Review of dispersal attempts at flying-fox camps in Australia

The permanent exclusion of flying-foxes from camps (camp dispersal) near human settlements is a management tool commonly used to mitigate human–wildlife conflict. We summarised information on the costs and outcomes of 48 camp dispersals in Australia. Our aim was to improve the information base on which camp management decisions are made. Camp dispersals were largely triggered by impacts on neighbouring residents (75%). A disproportionately high number occurred in 2013–14, associated with changes in Queensland flying-fox management policy following an increase in the number of urban camps. Repeat actions over months or years were typically required to exclude flying-foxes from camps (58%). In 88% of cases, replacement camps formed within 1 km and became sites of transferred conflict. Only 23% of dispersal attempts were successful in resolving conflict for communities, generally after extensive destruction of roost habitat. Costs were poorly documented, although no dispersal attempt costing less than AU$250 000 proved successful. We conclude that camp dispersal is a high-risk, high-cost tool for mitigating human–wildlife conflict, in situ management strategies and tools should be developed, evidence-based information on management options should be made available to stakeholders via a nationally curated resource library, and research is required on impacts of camp management practices on flying-foxes.

Optimal foraging in seasonal environments: implications for residency of Australian flying foxes in food-subsidized urban landscapes

Bats provide important ecosystem services such as pollination of native forests; they are also a source of zoonotic pathogens for humans and domestic animals. Human-induced changes to native habitats may have created more opportunities for bats to reside in urban settings, thus decreasing pollination services to native forests and increasing opportunities for zoonotic transmission. In Australia, fruit bats (Pteropus spp. flying foxes) are increasingly inhabiting urban areas where they feed on anthropogenic food sources with nutritional characteristics and phenology that differ from native habitats. We use optimal foraging theory to investigate the relationship between bat residence time in a patch, the time it takes to search for a new patch (simulating loss of native habitat) and seasonal resource production. We show that it can be beneficial to reside in a patch, even when food productivity is low, as long as foraging intensity is low and the expected searching time is high. A small increase in the expected patch searching time greatly increases the residence time, suggesting nonlinear associations between patch residence and loss of seasonal native resources. We also found that sudden increases in resource consumption due to an influx of new bats has complex effects on patch departure times that again depend on expected searching times and seasonality. Our results suggest that the increased use of urban landscapes by bats may be a response to new spatial and temporal configurations of foraging opportunities. Given that bats are reservoir hosts of zoonotic diseases, our results provide a framework to study the effects of foraging ecology on disease dynamics.One contribution of 14 to a theme isssue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

Changing resource landscapes and spillover of henipaviruses

Old World fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) provide critical pollination and seed dispersal services to forest ecosystems across Africa, Asia, and Australia. In each of these regions, pteropodids have been identified as natural reservoir hosts for henipaviruses. The genus Henipavirus includes Hendra virus and Nipah virus, which regularly spill over from bats to domestic animals and humans in Australia and Asia, and a suite of largely uncharacterized African henipaviruses. Rapid change in fruit bat habitat and associated shifts in their ecology and behavior are well documented, with evidence suggesting that altered diet, roosting habitat, and movement behaviors are increasing spillover risk of bat-borne viruses. We review the ways that changing resource landscapes affect the processes that culminate in cross-species transmission of henipaviruses, from reservoir host density and distribution to within-host immunity and recipient host exposure. We evaluate existing evidence and highlight gaps in knowledge that are limiting our understanding of the ecological drivers of henipavirus spillover. When considering spillover in the context of land-use change, we emphasize that it is especially important to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and resource provisioning on these processes, and to jointly consider changes in resource abundance, quality, and composition.

Environmental drivers of spatiotemporal foraging intensity in fruit bats and implications for Hendra virus ecology

In the Australian subtropics, flying-foxes (family Pteropididae) play a fundamental ecological role as forest pollinators. Flying-foxes are also reservoirs of the fatal zoonosis, Hendra virus. Understanding flying fox foraging ecology, particularly in agricultural areas during winter, is critical to determine their role in transmitting Hendra virus to horses and humans. We developed a spatiotemporal model of flying-fox foraging intensity based on foraging patterns of 37 grey-headed flying-foxes (Pteropus poliocephalus) using GPS tracking devices and boosted regression trees. We validated the model with independent population counts and summarized temporal patterns in terms of spatial resource concentration. We found that spatial resource concentration was highest in late-summer and lowest in winter, with lowest values in winter 2011, the same year an unprecedented cluster of spillover events occurred in Queensland and New South Wales. Spatial resource concentration was positively correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation at 3–8 month time lags. Based on shared foraging traits with the primary reservoir of Hendra virus (Pteropus alecto), we used our results to develop hypotheses on how regional climatic history, eucalypt phenology, and foraging behaviour may contribute to the predominance of winter spillovers, and how these phenomena connote foraging habitat conservation as a public health intervention.

Models of Eucalypt phenology predict bat population flux

Fruit bats (Pteropodidae) have received increased attention after the recent emergence of notable viral pathogens of bat origin. Their vagility hinders data collection on abundance and distribution, which constrains modeling efforts and our understanding of bat ecology, viral dynamics, and spillover. We addressed this knowledge gap with models and data on the occurrence and abundance of nectarivorous fruit bat populations at 3 day roosts in southeast Queensland. We used environmental drivers of nectar production as predictors and explored relationships between bat abundance and virus spillover. Specifically, we developed several novel modeling tools motivated by complexities of fruit bat foraging ecology, including: (1) a dataset of spatial variables comprising Eucalypt-focused vegetation indices, cumulative precipitation, and temperature anomaly; (2) an algorithm that associated bat population response with spatial covariates in a spatially and temporally relevant way given our current understanding of bat foraging behavior; and (3) a thorough statistical learning approach to finding optimal covariate combinations. We identified covariates that classify fruit bat occupancy at each of our three study roosts with 86-93% accuracy. Negative binomial models explained 43-53% of the variation in observed abundance across roosts. Our models suggest that spatiotemporal heterogeneity in Eucalypt-based food resources could drive at least 50% of bat population behavior at the landscape scale. We found that 13 spillover events were observed within the foraging range of our study roosts, and they occurred during times when models predicted low population abundance. Our results suggest that, in southeast Queensland, spillover may not be driven by large aggregations of fruit bats attracted by nectar-based resources, but rather by behavior of smaller resident subpopulations. Our models and data integrated remote sensing and statistical learning to make inferences on bat ecology and disease dynamics. This work provides a foundation for further studies on landscape-scale population movement and spatiotemporal disease dynamics.

Suitability of selected free-gas and dissolved-gas sampling containers for carbon isotopic analysis

RATIONALE

Storage trials were conducted for 2 to 3 months using a hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide gas mixture with known carbon isotopic composition to simulate typical hold times for gas samples prior to isotopic analysis. A range of containers (both pierced and unpierced) was periodically sampled to test for δ(13)C isotopic fractionation.

METHODS

Seventeen containers were tested for free-gas storage (20°C, 1 atm pressure) and 7 containers were tested for dissolved-gas storage, the latter prepared by bubbling free gas through tap water until saturated (20°C, 1 atm) and then preserved to avoid biological activity by acidifying to pH 2 with phosphoric acid and stored in the dark at 5°C. Samples were extracted using valves or by piercing septa, and then introduced into an isotope ratio mass spectrometer for compound-specific δ(13)C measurements.

RESULTS

For free gas, stainless steel canisters and crimp-top glass serum bottles with butyl septa were most effective at preventing isotopic fractionation (pierced and unpierced), whereas silicone and PTFE-butyl septa allowed significant isotopic fractionation. FlexFoil and Tedlar bags were found to be effective only for storage of up to 1 month. For dissolved gas, crimp-top glass serum bottles with butyl septa were again effective, whereas silicone and PTFE-butyl were not. FlexFoil bags were reliable for up to 2 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest a range of preferred containers as well as several that did not perform very well for isotopic analysis. Overall, the results help establish better QA/QC procedures to avoid isotopic fractionation when storing environmental gas samples. Recommended containers for air transportation include steel canisters and glass serum bottles with butyl septa (pierced and unpierced).

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Urban habituation, ecological connectivity and epidemic dampening: the emergence of Hendra virus from flying foxes (Pteropus spp.)

Anthropogenic environmental change is often implicated in the emergence of new zoonoses from wildlife; however, there is little mechanistic understanding of these causal links. Here, we examine the transmission dynamics of an emerging zoonotic paramyxovirus, Hendra virus (HeV), in its endemic host, Australian Pteropus bats (fruit bats or flying foxes). HeV is a biosecurity level 4 (BSL-4) pathogen, with a high case-fatality rate in humans and horses. With models parametrized from field and laboratory data, we explore a set of probable contributory mechanisms that explain the spatial and temporal pattern of HeV emergence; including urban habituation and decreased migration-two widely observed changes in flying fox ecology that result from anthropogenic transformation of bat habitat in Australia. Urban habituation increases the number of flying foxes in contact with human and domestic animal populations, and our models suggest that, in addition, decreased bat migratory behaviour could lead to a decline in population immunity, giving rise to more intense outbreaks after local viral reintroduction. Ten of the 14 known HeV outbreaks occurred near urbanized or sedentary flying fox populations, supporting these predictions. We also demonstrate that by incorporating waning maternal immunity into our models, the peak modelled prevalence coincides with the peak annual spill-over hazard for HeV. These results provide the first detailed mechanistic framework for understanding the sporadic temporal pattern of HeV emergence, and of the urban/peri-urban distribution of HeV outbreaks in horses and people.

MRI Detection of Otherwise Occult Malignancies in Women Recently Diagnosed with Breast Cancer

Objective. Breast Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is recommended as a screening test for women at high risk for breast cancer but its role as a diagnostic tool for women recently diagnosed with breast cancer is not universally accepted. We report outcomes in a center that routinely uses breast MRI to evaluate extent of disease in patients recently diagnosed with breast cancer.Material and Methods. Between 1/1/2003 and 4/30/2007, 592 patients with recently diagnosed breast cancer underwent bilateral breast MRI to assess extent of disease. All had undergone mammography prior to breast MRI. Twenty-two were excluded because they were either lost to follow up (n=7) or had a mastectomy or lumpectomy (n=15) where correlation of pathology to the study lesion was not possible or incomplete. 570 patients comprised the analysis set. Patient age, index tumor characteristics (histologic subtype, grade, ER/PR status, HER2 status and presence of angiolymphatic invasion), axillary lymph node status, and pathologic stage were recorded in addition to mammographic breast density. All MR exams were coded following the American College of Radiology Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast MRI lexicon. Biopsy rates, positive predictive values of biopsy, and overall yield of detecting an occult cancer in the ipsilateral or contralateral breast were calculated and compared using Chi-square test across patient age, mammographic breast density, index tumor type, receptor status and presence or absence of lymph node metastases.Results. The distribution of tumor histologies was typical of that seen in the U.S. during the study period, with 61% having invasive ductal index cancers, 21% pure ductal carcinoma in situ, 19% invasive lobular or other invasive cancers and 67% being node negative at time of diagnosis. Additional biopsy was recommended for 152/570 (27%) patients found to have one or more suspicious lesions on MRI distinct from the index cancer, based upon mammographic, sonographic, or clinical exam measurements. Of the 152 women who underwent biopsy, 67 women had additional cancers diagnosed, for a positive predictive value of 44% (67/152). Overall, 12% (67/570) of women had otherwise occult cancers diagnosed by MRI alone: 8% of women had additional sites or greater extent of ipsilateral disease and 4% of women had unsuspected contralateral cancer detected by MRI alone. No significant differences were found in the probability of detecting an occult cancer based on patient age, breast density, index tumor characteristics, or lymph node status.Conclusion. The 12% added cancer yield of MRI in detecting additional ipsilateral or contralateral malignancies in a clinical population of women recently diagnosed with breast cancer is significantly higher than the added cancer yield of MRI screening among women at high risk for breast cancer. The positive predictive value of MRI in this clinical setting is also high, with 44% of women who undergo additional tissue sampling being diagnosed with otherwise occult cancer. The probability of finding additional malignancy does not vary significantly with patient age, breast density, or index cancer characteristics.

Citation Information: Cancer Res 2009;69(24 Suppl):Abstract nr 4017.

The long-term effects of logging for woodchips on small mammal populations

Context. Long-term studies are internationally recognised as an essential component of achieving ecologically sustainable forest management with respect to fauna. Aims. This study aimed to assess longer-term responses of small mammals to logging by returning in 1998 to our 1980–83 study sites in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia. Methods. Three age-classes of forest were surveyed: unlogged; 18–19-year-old regrowth; and 26–34-year-old regrowth. Key results. Rattus fuscipes remained affected by logging, and there were significantly fewer R. fuscipes males in logged, north-west-facing sites than at other sites, although the effect was less pronounced in 1998 than in 1980–83. Antechinus agilis females were significantly less numerous in south-east-facing, unlogged forest. This was not expected from the 1980–83 results. Antechinus swainsonii, which had disappeared following a fire in 1980, had returned to the forest by 1998. A. swainsonii females showed a significant preference for south-east-facing slopes and this relationship was consistent between logged and unlogged forest. No members of Mus musculus or Sminthopsis leucopus, which were present in 1980–83, were caught in 1998. Conclusions. As in the 1980s study, the responses of small mammal species to logging history were varied and species specific. Implications. In our study area, we predict that sustained logging for woodchips will continue to deplete its populations of small mammals. This adds to the case for a more robust and sustained approach to researching and managing our forest fauna.

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes

Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

Pre- and post-employment median nerve latency in pork processing employees

There is some controversy regarding the relationship between development of median nerve dysfunction and employment activities. We performed nerve conduction studies of median nerve function on individuals before and after starting employment in the pork processing industry. After working an average of 64 days, employees (n = 45) showed significant prolongation of median motor and sensory nerve latency when comparing initial and final testing results in both dominant and non-dominant hands (P = < 0.01 to 0.03). A similar trend was found when testing a smaller group of employees (n = 17) who were already working (mean of 3 days), though this did not generally reach statistical significance. This study supports the conclusion that prolongation of median motor and sensory nerve latency can occur within as little as 2 months after beginning employment in the pork processing industry.

Seasonal movements of grey-headed flying-foxes, Pteropus poliocephalus (Chiroptera : Pteropodidae), from two maternity camps in northern New South Wales

Seasonal movements of 22 Pteropus poliocephalus, from two maternity camps in north-eastern New South Wales, were monitored from January to June 1989 using radiotelemetry. The animals moved independently in time and space among various communal roosts located 8-610 km from the maternity camp sites. Generally, P. poliocephalus from a camp near rainforest (Currie Park, Lismore) remained within 50 km of the maternity site. These localised movements were attributed to the continued availability of fruits in the rainforest throughout the study. Animals from a maternity camp surrounded by sclerophyll forest (Susan I., Grafton) undertook long migrations south (median distance 342.5 km, n = 11) to camps containing up to 200 000 P. poliocephalus of both sexes. These large aggregations formed during the mating season and comprised individuals drawn from various previous sites. Thus, P. poliocephalus in northern and central N.S.W. appear to function as a single breeding population and should be managed as such. After mid-May, animals from Susan I. returned to north-eastern N.S.W. There was high correlation between movements of P. poliocephalus from the camp at Susan I. and the flowering patterns of certain species of Myrtaceae and Proteaceae. It is hypothesised that flowering attractive to apiarists is also attractive to P. poliocephalus and that information from apiarists could be used by wildlife managers to predict large aggregations of the animals.

Effects of logging and fire on small mammals in Mumbulla State Forest, near Bega, New South Wales

This study of the effects of logging on small mammals in Mumbulla State Forest on the south coast of New South Wales included the effects of a fire in November 1980 and a drought throughout the study period from June 1980 to June 1983. Rattus fuscipes was sensitive to change: logging had a significant impact on its numbers, response to ground cover, and recapture rate; fire had a more severe effect, and drought retarded the post-fire recovery of the population. The three species of dasyurid marsupials differed markedly in their response to ground cover, canopy cover, logging and fire. Antechinus stuartii was distributed evenly through all habitats and was not affected by logging, but fire had an immediate and adverse effect which was sustained by the intense drought. A. swainsonii markedly preferred the regenerating forest, and was not seen again after the fire, the failure of the population being attributed to its dependence on dense ground cover. Sminthopsis leucopus was found in low numbers, appeared to prefer forest with sparse ground cover, and showed no immediate response to logging or fire; its disappearance by the third year post-fire suggests that regenerating forest is inimical to the survival of this species. Mus musculus showed no response to logging. In the first year following the fire its numbers were still very low, but in the next year there was a short-lived plague which coincided with the only respite in the 3-year drought and, importantly, occurred in the intensely burnt parts of the forest. The options for managing this forest for the conservation of small mammals include minimising fire, retaining unlogged forest, extending the time over which alternate coupes are logged and minimising disturbance from heavy machinery.