Age estimation based on Willems method versus new country-specific method in South African black children

A Comparative Study of the Assessment of the Accuracy of Willems' and Demirjian's Methods in Dental Age Estimation of the Saudi Arabian Population

BACKGROUND

The notion that "age is just a number" is sometimes expressed colloquially; however, within the domains of medicine and dentistry, age is not only a numerical value. Rather, it has significant importance in several facets of diagnosis and treatment planning. Demonstrating one's identity is necessary not only in the aftermath of natural calamities or mishaps but also in the context of forensic examination of living persons. Age assessment is a very important tool in forensic odontology and plays a vital role in various fields, including medico-legal matters. The primary focus of the current investigation is to assess the precision and correctness of the data and reliability of Demirjian's method (DM) and Willems' method (WM) for age estimation (AE) among the population of Saudi Arabia.

METHODOLOGY

This research was conducted on 300 children from Saudi Arabia, aged seven to 13 years, including both males and females. The assessment of orthopantomography images involved the utilization of both Demirjian's and Willems' methodologies for ascertaining dental age. This determined dental age was then meticulously juxtaposed with the chronological age (CA) of every participant. The data collected underwent a comprehensive statistical analysis, which encompassed the application of the paired t-test.

RESULTS

By using both methodologies, it was discovered that the estimated age (EA) exhibited higher values in both men and females compared to the CA. Both Willems' and Demirjian's approaches yielded significantly different results in terms of statistical significance (p = 0.000 and p = 0.000, respectively), as shown by the comparison.

CONCLUSION

When comparing Willems' technique to Demirjian's method, it was found that the population under research showed somewhat greater accuracy levels for AE. However, it is important to note that the disparity between these two approaches was relatively small. Consequently, it is imperative to emphasize the necessity for additional research involving a larger sample size to establish the validation of a more region-specific AE method tailored specifically for the Saudi Arabian population.

A systematic overview of dental methods for age assessment in living individuals: from traditional to artificial intelligence-based approaches

Dental radiographies have been used for many decades for estimating the chronological age, with a view to forensic identification, migration flow control, or assessment of dental development, among others. This study aims to analyse the current application of chronological age estimation methods from dental X-ray images in the last 6 years, involving a search for works in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Exclusion criteria were applied to discard off-topic studies and experiments which are not compliant with a minimum quality standard. The studies were grouped according to the applied methodology, the estimation target, and the age cohort used to evaluate the estimation performance. A set of performance metrics was used to ensure good comparability between the different proposed methodologies. A total of 613 unique studies were retrieved, of which 286 were selected according to the inclusion criteria. Notable tendencies to overestimation and underestimation were observed in some manual approaches for numeric age estimation, being especially notable in the case of Demirjian (overestimation) and Cameriere (underestimation). On the other hand, the automatic approaches based on deep learning techniques are scarcer, with only 17 studies published in this regard, but they showed a more balanced behaviour, with no tendency to overestimation or underestimation. From the analysis of the results, it can be concluded that traditional methods have been evaluated in a wide variety of population samples, ensuring good applicability in different ethnicities. On the other hand, fully automated methods were a turning point in terms of performance, cost, and adaptability to new populations.

Applicability of Willems method for age estimation in Brazilian children: performance of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network

Background

Dental age estimation of children may be necessary in the clinical and forensic fields. In the former, it may contribute to the investigation of dental development and biological maturation. In the latter, dental age estimation may support the Court in several circumstances, such as adoption and unidentified bodies of deceased children. This study aimed to apply Willems method for dental age estimation of children from Southeastern Brazil. The second aim of the study was to test the performance of the method modeled with multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN). The sample consisted of 1000 panoramic radiographs of female (n = 500) and male (n = 500) Brazilian children. The individuals were evenly distributed through ten age intervals of 1 year from 6 to 15.99 years. Dental development was classified with the 7-teeth technique of Demirjian et al. (1973), followed by age calculation with Willems method (2001). The difference between chronological and estimated ages was quantified for the original Willems model and for the MLR and ANN models.

Results

For females and males, the overall difference found with Willems original model was 0.27 and 0.28, respectively. With MLR and ANN, the overall differences were 0.54 and 0.35, and 0.26 and 0.24, respectively. The ANN was able to reduce half of the mean error of female age predictions up to 100%. The same phenomenon occurred in 1/3 of the males. Despite the improvements of the ANN model to specific age groups, the original Willems model performed similar or better in 40% of the studied age intervals. All the models showed the worse age predictions in the interval between 15 and 15.99 years (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Willems method remains optimal and applicable after 20 years since original development. The ANN model might be an option for future improvements (depending on sex and age interval).

A probability model for assessing age relative to the 18-year old threshold based on magnetic resonance imaging of the knee combined with radiography of third molars in the lower jaw

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to generate a statistical model based on magnetic resonance imaging of the knee and radiography of third molars in the lower jaw, for assessing age relative to the 18-year old threshold.

METHODS

In total, 58 studies correlating knee or tooth development to age were assessed, 5 studies for knee and 7 studies for tooth were included in the statistical model. The relation between the development of the anatomical site, based on a binary system, and age were estimated using logistic regression. Separate meta-populations for knee and tooth were generated from the individual based data for men and women. A weighted estimate of probabilities was made by combining the probability densities for knee and tooth. Margin of errors for males and females in different age groups and knee and tooth maturity were calculated within the larger framework of transition analysis using a logit model as a base. Evidentiary values for combinations of knee and tooth maturity were evaluated with likelihood ratios.

RESULTS

For males, the sensitivity for the method was calculated to 0.78 (probability of correctly classifying adults), the specificity 0.90 (probability of correctly classifying minors), the negative predictive value 0.80 (proportion identified minors are minors) and the positive predictive value 0.89 (proportion identified adults are adults) indicating a model better at identifying minors than adults. The point at which half the female population has reached closed knee lies before the 18-year threshold, adding the knee as an indicator lowers specificity and increases sensitivity. The sensitivity when using tooth as an indicator for females is 0.24 and specificity 0.97, signifying few minors misclassified as adults but also a low probability of identifying adults. The negative predictive value for women when using tooth as the sole indicator is 0.56 and positive predictive value 0.88. Probabilities were calculated for males and females assuming a uniform age distribution between 15 and 21years. The calculated margin of error of minors classified as adults in a population between 15 and 21 years with the model was 11% for males and 12% for females. Further, the evidentiary value as well as margin of error vary for different combinations of knee and tooth maturity.

CONCLUSION

The statistical model based on the combination of MRI knee and radiography of mandibular third molars is a valid method to assess age relative to the 18-year old threshold when applied on males and of limited value in females.

Age estimation based on Willems method versus country specific model in Saudi Arabia children and adolescents

BACKGROUND

The aims of this study were to create a method for estimation of dental age in Saudi children and adolescents based on the Willems model developed using the Belgian Caucasian (BC) reference data and to compare the ability of the two models to predict age in Saudi children.

METHODS

Development of the seven lower left permanent mandibular teeth was staged in 1146 panoramic radiographs from healthy Saudi children (605 male, 541 female) without missing permanent teeth and without all permanent teeth fully developed (except third molars). The data were used to validate the Willems BC model and to construct a Saudi Arabian-specific (Willems SA) model. The mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error obtained from both validations were compared to quantify the variance in errors in the sample.

RESULTS

The overall mean error for the Willems SA method was 0.023 years (standard deviation, ± 0.55), indicating no systematic underestimation or overestimation of age. For girls, the error using the Willems SA method was significantly lower but still negligible at 0.06 years. A small but statistically significant difference in total mean absolute error (11 days) was found between the Willems BC and Willems SA models when the data were compared independent of sex. The overall mean absolute error for girls was slightly lower for the Willems BC method than for the Willems SA method (1.33 years vs. 1.37 years).

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in ability to predict dental age between the Willems BC and Willems SA methods is very small, indicating that the data from the BC population can be used as a reference in the Saudi population.

Validating dental age estimation in Kenyan black children and adolescents using the Willems method

PURPOSE

This study aimed to validate the Willems Belgian Caucasian (Willems BC) age estimation model in a Kenyan sample, to develop and validate a Kenyan-specific (Willems KB) age estimation model and to compare the age prediction performances of both models.

METHODS

Panoramic radiographs of 1038 (523 female, 515 male) Kenyan children without missing permanent teeth and without all permanent teeth fully developed (except third molars) were retrospectively selected. Tooth development of the seven lower-left permanent teeth was staged according to Demirjian et al. The Willems BC model, performed on a Belgian Caucasian sample and a constructed Kenyan-specific model (Willems KB) were validated on the Kenyan sample. Their age prediction performances were quantified and compared using the mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

The ME with Willems BC method equalled zero. Hence, there was no systematic under- or overestimation of the age. For males and females separately, the ME with Willems BC was significantly different from zero, but negligible in magnitude (-0.04 and 0.04, respectively). Willems KB was found not to outperform Willems BC, since the MAE and RMSE were comparable (0.98 vs 0.97 and 1.31 vs 1.29, respectively). Although Willems BC resulted in a higher percentage of subjects with predicted age within a one-year difference of the true age (63.3% vs 60.4%, p=0.018), this cannot be considered as clinically relevant.

CONCLUSION

There is no reason to use a country-specific (Willems KB) model in children from Kenya instead of the original Willems (BC) model.

Age estimation in the living: A scoping review of population data for skeletal and dental methods

Age estimation of living individuals has become a crucial part of the forensic practice, especially due to the global increase in cross-border migration. The low rate of birth registration in many countries, hence of identification documents of migrants, especially in Africa and Asia, highlights the importance of reliable methods for age estimation of living individuals. Despite the fact that a number of skeletal and dental methods for age estimation have been developed, their main limitation is that they are based on specific reference samples and there is still no consensus among researchers on whether these methods can be applied to all populations. Though this issue remains still unsolved, population information at a glance could be useful for forensic practitioners dealing with such issues. This study aims at presenting a scoping review and mapping of the current situation concerning population data for skeletal (hand-wrist and clavicle) and dental methods (teeth eruption and third molar formation) for age estimation in the living. Two hundred studies on the rate of skeletal maturation and four hundred thirty-nine on the rate of dental maturation were found, covering the period from 1952 and 2020 for a total of ninety-eight countries. For most of the western and central African countries there are currently no data on the rate of skeletal and dental maturation. The same applies to the countries of the Middle East, as well as the eastern European countries, especially as regard the skeletal development.

Magnetic resonance imaging for forensic age estimation in living children and young adults: a systematic review

The use of MRI in forensic age estimation has been explored extensively during the last decade. The authors of this paper synthesized the available MRI data for forensic age estimation in living children and young adults to provide a comprehensive overview that can guide age estimation practice and future research. To do so, the authors searched MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science, along with cited and citing articles and study registers. Two authors independently selected articles, conducted data extraction, and assessed risk of bias. They considered study populations including living subjects up to 30 years old. Fifty-five studies were included in qualitative analysis and 33 in quantitative analysis. Most studies had biases including use of relatively small European (Caucasian) populations, varying MR approaches and varying staging techniques. Therefore, it was not appropriate to pool the age distribution data. The authors found that reproducibility of staging was remarkably lower in clavicles than in any other anatomical structure. Age estimation performance was in line with the gold standard, radiography, with mean absolute errors ranging from 0.85 years to 2.0 years. The proportion of correctly classified minors ranged from 65% to 91%. Multifactorial age estimation performed better than that based on a single anatomical site. The authors found that more multifactorial age estimation studies are necessary, together with studies testing whether the MRI data can safely be pooled. The current review results can guide future studies, help medical professionals to decide on the preferred approach for specific cases, and help judicial professionals to interpret the evidential value of age estimation results.

Dental age estimation in Somali children and sub-adults combining permanent teeth and third molar development

Estimation of an individual’s age has important applications in forensics. In young individuals, it often relies on separate evaluations of permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) development. Here, we analysed the age prediction performance of combined information from PT and TM in an unusual sample of healthy Somalis, born and living in Finland. PT development was staged according to Demirjian et al. (Hum Biol, 1973) and TM development according to Köhler et al. (Ann Anat, 1994), using panoramic radiographs from 803 subjects (397 males, 406 females) aged 3–23 years. A sex-specific Bayesian age-estimation model for the multivariate distribution of the stages conditional on age was fitted on PT, TM and PT and TM combined. The age-estimation performances were validated and quantified. The approach combining PT and TM only overestimated age with an ME of − 0.031 years in males and − 0.011 years in females, indicating the best age prediction performance.

Dental age estimation in Somali children using the Willems et al. model

AIM

The aim of the current study was to retrospectively collect dental panoramic radiographs from Somali children living in Finland, to use the radiographic data to develop a new age estimation model based on the model established by Willems et al. (J Forensic Sci 46(4):893-895, 2001), and to compare the age prediction performances of the Willems et al. model (WM) and the newly developed model.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Dental panoramic radiographs from 808 healthy Somalis born in Finland were selected. The development of the seven left mandibular permanent teeth, from the central incisor to the second molar, was staged according to Demirjian et al. (Hum Biol 45(2):211-227, 1973). Radiographs with all listed permanent teeth completely developed were excluded. The studied sample consisted of 635 subjects (311 females, 324 males) ranging in age from 4 to 18 years. Kappa and weighted Kappa statistics were used to quantify intra- and inter-observer agreement in stage allocation. The collected dataset was used to validate the WM, constructed on a Belgian Caucasian reference sample, and to establish a Somali-specific age estimation model (SM) based on the WM. Both models were validated and their age prediction performances quantified using mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE).

RESULTS

The SM resulted in a slight underestimation of age when the sex groups were analysed separately or combined, with ME varying between 0.04 (standard deviation (SD) 1.01) and 0.05 (SD 1.04) years, MAE between 0.77 and 0.80 years and RMSE between 1.01 and 1.04 years. The WM statistically significantly underestimated the age of females, with an ME of 0.20 (SD 1.01) years (p = 0.0006). For males, and for females and males combined, no statistically significant ME was observed.

CONCLUSION

The WM and SM were similar in their age prediction performances, and the use of the WM in dental age assessment in the Somali population is justified.

New equations for age estimation using four permanent mandibular teeth in Thai children and adolescents

The purposes of this study were to generate new age estimation equations using two four-teeth methods and to test the accuracy of the resulting equations in comparison with Demirjian and Goldstein four-teeth methods in a Thai population. A sample of 720 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals (360 males and 360 females), aged between 7 and 15 years was randomly selected and assessed for age estimation. The new equations were developed using quadratic regression analysis. The results showed the Thai population-specific equations had a strong relationship between the dental maturity score and the chronological age in both sexes (r = 0.946-0.956). The new equations revealed no statistically significant differences between the estimated and the chronological ages in either sex. On the other hand, Demirjian and Goldstein four-teeth methods showed statistically significant differences between the estimated and the chronological ages in both sexes. Moreover, we found slight differences in the mean absolute error between Demirjian and Goldstein methods and our new equations (0.01 years for males and 0.03 years for females in method I and 0.04 years for males and 0.02 years for females in method II) and the root mean square error between Demirjian and Goldstein methods and our new equations (0.02 years for males and 0.04 years for females in method I and 0.00 years for males and 0.04 years for females in method II). In summary, although Thai population-specific equations provide a slightly increased accuracy in age estimation in Thai children and adolescents, Demirjian and Goldstein methods are still relevant.