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Zhemchuzhnikov MK, Versluijs TSL, Lameris TK, Reneerkens J, Both C, van Gils JA. Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:3710-3725. [PMID: 33976770 PMCID: PMC8093693 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7346] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2020] [Revised: 01/28/2021] [Accepted: 02/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life-history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Thomas K. Lameris
- NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchDen BurgThe Netherlands
| | - Jeroen Reneerkens
- NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchDen BurgThe Netherlands
- University of GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands
| | | | - Jan A. van Gils
- NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchDen BurgThe Netherlands
- University of GroningenGroningenThe Netherlands
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2
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Kim M, Lee S, Lee H, Lee S. Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18031086. [PMID: 33530515 PMCID: PMC7908274 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18031086] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2020] [Revised: 01/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
The response of the phenological events of individual species to climate change is not isolated, but is connected through interaction with other species at the same or adjacent trophic level. Using long-term phenological data observed since 1976 in Korea, whose temperature has risen more steeply than the average global temperature, this study conducted phenological analysis (differ-ences in the phenology of groups, differences in phenological shifts due to climate change, differ-ences in phenological sensitivity to climate by groups, and the change of phenological day differ-ences among interacting groups). The phenological shift of the producer group (plants) was found to be negative in all researched species, which means that it blooms quickly over the years. The regression slope of consumers (primary consumers and secondary consumers) was generally posi-tive which means that the phenological events of these species tended to be later during the study period. The inter-regional deviation of phenological events was not large for any plant except for plum tree and Black locust. In addition, regional variations in high trophic levels of secondary consumers tended to be greater than that of producers and primary consumers. Among the studied species, plum was the most sensitive to temperature, and when the temperature rose by 1 °C, the flowering time of plum decreased by 7.20 days. As a result of checking the day differences in the phenological events of the interacting species, the phenological events of species were reversed, and butterflies have appeared earlier than plum, Korean forsythia, and Korean rosebay since 1990. Using long-term data from Korea, this study investigated differences in phenological reactions among trophic groups. There is a possibility of a phenological mismatch between trophic groups in the future if global warming continues due to differences in sensitivity to climate and phenological shifts between trophic levels.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Sangdon Lee
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +82-2-3277-3545; Fax: +82-2-3277-3275
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3
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Gaughan JB, Lees AM, Sejian V. Sixty years of animal biometeorology. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2020; 64:157-163. [PMID: 29058080 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1459-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2017] [Accepted: 10/01/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Animal biometeorology (insects excluded) has been part of the International Journal of Biometeorology since its inception in 1958. Over the first 60 years of the journal, 480 animal biometeorology papers were published. Thus, approximately 14% of published papers dealt with animals. Over the first 60 years, data from more than 50 animal species was presented, with the lead authors coming from 48 countries. The two most common species used in animal papers between 1957 and 2016 were cattle (109 papers: 22.7% of all animal papers) and rats (96 papers: 20.0% of all animal papers). Although cattle and rats dominated, the species in the most cited paper (240 citations) was chickens, followed by bird migration (155 citations), and general livestock (118 citations). Overall, five papers exceeded 100 citations, and a further two exceeded 200 citations. In the last decade, 126 animal papers were published (26% of all animal papers). Many of these papers had a focus on livestock production in developing countries especially Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- John B Gaughan
- School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Gatton Campus, QLD, Gatton, Australia.
| | - Angela M Lees
- School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Gatton Campus, QLD, Gatton, Australia
| | - Veerasamy Sejian
- Animal Physiology Division, ICAR-National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physiology, Audugodi, Bangalore, 560030, India
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4
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Shave A, Garroway CJ, Siegrist J, Fraser KC. Timing to temperature: Egg‐laying dates respond to temperature and are under stronger selection at northern latitudes. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2974] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Joe Siegrist
- Purple Martin Conservation Association Erie Pennsylvania USA
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5
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Characterizing ecosystem phenological diversity and its macroecology with snow cover phenology. Sci Rep 2019; 9:15074. [PMID: 31636336 PMCID: PMC6803678 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-51602-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2019] [Accepted: 10/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
One critical challenge of exploring flora phenology is on characterizing ecosystem phenological diversity (EPD), and thus how EPD’s performance is influenced by climate changes has also been an open macro-ecological question. To fill these two gaps, we proposed an innovative method for reflecting EPD, by taking the advantage of the often-classified inverse factor of spatial resolution discrepancy between the used remote sensing datasets of vegetation phenological dates (green-up and brown-up) and snow cover phenological dates (SPDs) (onset and end) around the Arctic, and further, we examined the cross response/feedbacks of the two kinds of EPDs to the two categories of SPDs. We found that the circumpolar green-up and brown-up EPDs both were shrinking, driven more by the delaying of the onset SPDs than the advancing of the end SPDs; North America and North Eurasia performed with inconsistent EPD response/feedbacks to the related SPD anomalies; and further, the EPD-SPD response/feedbacks in some locations exhibited the time-lag effect, e.g., the green-up EPDs made the strongest response to the onset SPDs of two years earlier. Overall, the validated method and the new findings are of implications for improving the phenology modules in Earth system models, and the contributions of the present study have enlightening significance for kicking off the new EPD branch in macrosystem phenological ecology.
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Kwon E, Weiser EL, Lanctot RB, Brown SC, Gates HR, Gilchrist G, Kendall SJ, Lank DB, Liebezeit JR, McKinnon L, Nol E, Payer DC, Rausch J, Rinella DJ, Saalfeld ST, Senner NR, Smith PA, Ward D, Wisseman RW, Sandercock BK. Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates. ECOL MONOGR 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Eunbi Kwon
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas 66506 USA
| | - Emily L. Weiser
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas 66506 USA
| | - Richard B. Lanctot
- Migratory Bird Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
| | - Stephen C. Brown
- Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences Manomet Massachusetts 02345 USA
| | - Heather R. Gates
- Migratory Bird Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
- Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences Manomet Massachusetts 02345 USA
| | - Grant Gilchrist
- Environment and Climate Change Canada National Wildlife Research Centre Carleton University Ottawa Ontario K1A 0H3 Canada
| | - Steve J. Kendall
- Arctic National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Alaska 99701 USA
| | - David B. Lank
- Department of Biological Sciences Simon Fraser University Burnaby British Columbia V3H 3S6 Canada
| | | | - Laura McKinnon
- Department of Biology Trent University Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada
| | - Erica Nol
- Department of Biology Trent University Peterborough Ontario K9J 7B8 Canada
| | - David C. Payer
- Arctic National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Alaska 99701 USA
| | - Jennie Rausch
- Canadian Wildlife Service Yellowknife Northwest Territories X1A 2P7 Canada
| | - Daniel J. Rinella
- Alaska Center for Conservation Science and Department of Biological Sciences University of Alaska Anchorage Anchorage Alaska 99508 USA
| | - Sarah T. Saalfeld
- Migratory Bird Management U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska 99503 USA
| | - Nathan R. Senner
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology Cornell University Ithaca New York 14850 USA
| | - Paul A. Smith
- Environment and Climate Change Canada Wildlife Research Division Ottawa Ontario K1A 0H3 Canada
| | - David Ward
- US Geological Survey Anchorage Alaska 99508 USA
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7
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Glądalski M, Bańbura M, Kaliński A, Markowski M, Skwarska J, Wawrzyniak J, Zieliński P, Bańbura J. Hatching delays in great tits and blue tits in response to an extreme cold spell: a long-term study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2018; 62:1437-1445. [PMID: 29667035 PMCID: PMC6063324 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1541-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2017] [Revised: 04/03/2018] [Accepted: 04/03/2018] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Variation in ambient temperature affects various life stages of organisms. It has been suggested that climate change not only implies higher global temperatures but also more unpredictable weather and more frequent extreme weather events. Temperature has a major influence on the optimal laying-incubation-hatching dates of insectivorous passerines, because it poses energetic constraints and affects the timing of food abundance. We have been studying breeding characteristics of great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus in two areas, an urban parkland and a deciduous forest, around the city of Łódź since 2002. During the egg-laying period in 2017, both tit species at both study areas faced an unusual cold spell as reflected by a sudden decrease in the mean ambient temperature to ca. 2-3 °C for about 5 days, which caused mean hatching delays of up to 6 days. Since flexibility of behavior plays a major role in adjusting to unpredictable weather conditions, examining its limits may be an important goal for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michał Glądalski
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland.
| | - Mirosława Bańbura
- Museum of Natural History, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Kilińskiego 101, 90-011, Łódź, Poland
| | - Adam Kaliński
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Marcin Markowski
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Joanna Skwarska
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Jarosław Wawrzyniak
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Piotr Zieliński
- Department of Ecology and Vertebrate Zoology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Jerzy Bańbura
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
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8
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Kharouba HM, Ehrlén J, Gelman A, Bolmgren K, Allen JM, Travers SE, Wolkovich EM. Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:5211-5216. [PMID: 29666247 PMCID: PMC5960279 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1714511115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 177] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather M Kharouba
- Center for Population Biology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616;
- Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
| | - Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Ecology, Environment, and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Andrew Gelman
- Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - Kjell Bolmgren
- Unit for Field-Based Forest Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-363 94 Lammhult, Sweden
| | - Jenica M Allen
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824
| | - Steve E Travers
- Department of Biological Sciences, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND 58108
| | - Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston MA, 02130
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138
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9
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Donnelly A, Yu R. The rise of phenology with climate change: an evaluation of IJB publications. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2017; 61:29-50. [PMID: 28527153 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1371-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2017] [Revised: 04/26/2017] [Accepted: 04/28/2017] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alison Donnelly
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, 53201, USA.
| | - Rong Yu
- School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583, USA
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10
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Mayor SJ, Guralnick RP, Tingley MW, Otegui J, Withey JC, Elmendorf SC, Andrew ME, Leyk S, Pearse IS, Schneider DC. Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds. Sci Rep 2017; 7:1902. [PMID: 28507323 PMCID: PMC5432526 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2016] [Accepted: 04/05/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen J Mayor
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1C 5S7, Canada. .,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA. .,The National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA. .,Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
| | - Robert P Guralnick
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Morgan W Tingley
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA
| | - Javier Otegui
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - John C Withey
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, 33199, USA
| | - Sarah C Elmendorf
- The National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA
| | - Margaret E Andrew
- School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, 6150, Australia
| | - Stefan Leyk
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Ian S Pearse
- Illinois Natural History Survey, Champaign, IL, 61820, USA
| | - David C Schneider
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1C 5S7, Canada
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11
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Smith SH, Steenhof K, McClure CJW, Heath JA. Earlier nesting by generalist predatory bird is associated with human responses to climate change. J Anim Ecol 2016; 86:98-107. [PMID: 27871118 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2016] [Accepted: 10/12/2016] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Warming temperatures cause temporal changes in growing seasons and prey abundance that drive earlier breeding by birds, especially dietary specialists within homogeneous habitat. Less is known about how generalists respond to climate-associated shifts in growing seasons or prey phenology, which may occur at different rates across land cover types. We studied whether breeding phenology of a generalist predator, the American kestrel (Falco sparverius), was associated with shifts in growing seasons and, presumably, prey abundance, in a mosaic of non-irrigated shrub/grasslands and irrigated crops/pastures. We examined the relationship between remotely-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and abundance of small mammals that, with insects, constitute approximately 93% of kestrel diet biomass. We used NDVI to estimate the start of the growing season (SoGS) in irrigated and non-irrigated lands from 1992 to 2015 and tested whether either estimate of annual SoGS predicted the timing of kestrel nesting. Finally, we examined relationships among irrigated SoGS, weather and crop planting. NDVI was a useful proxy for kestrel prey because it predicted small mammal abundance and past studies showed that NDVI predicts insect abundance. NDVI-estimated SoGS advanced significantly in irrigated lands (β = -1·09 ± 0·30 SE) but not in non-irrigated lands (β = -0·57 ± 0·53). Average date of kestrel nesting advanced 15 days in the past 24 years and was positively associated with the SoGS in irrigated lands, but not the SoGS in non-irrigated lands. Advanced SoGS in irrigated lands was related to earlier planting of crops after relatively warm winters, which were more common in recent years. Despite different patterns of SoGS change between land cover types, kestrel nesting phenology shifted with earlier prey availability in irrigated lands. Kestrels may preferentially track prey in irrigated lands over non-irrigated lands because of higher quality prey on irrigated lands, or earlier prey abundance may release former constraints on other selective pressures to breed early, such as seasonal declines in fecundity or competition for high-quality mates. This is one of the first examples of an association between human adaptation to climate change and shifts in breeding phenology of wildlife.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shawn H Smith
- Department of Biological Sciences and Raptor Research Center, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725, USA
| | - Karen Steenhof
- Owyhee Desert Studies, 18109 Briar Creek Road, Murphy, ID 83650, USA
| | | | - Julie A Heath
- Department of Biological Sciences and Raptor Research Center, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725, USA
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12
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Glądalski M, Bańbura M, Kaliński A, Markowski M, Skwarska J, Wawrzyniak J, Zieliński P, Bańbura J. Effects of extreme thermal conditions on plasticity in breeding phenology and double-broodedness of Great Tits and Blue Tits in central Poland in 2013 and 2014. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2016; 60:1795-1800. [PMID: 26983847 PMCID: PMC5085981 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-016-1152-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2015] [Revised: 02/26/2016] [Accepted: 03/02/2016] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Many avian species in Europe breed earlier as a result of higher temperatures caused by global climate changes. Climate change means not only higher temperatures but also more frequent extreme weather events, sometimes contrasting with the long-term trends. It was suggested that we should look closely at every extreme phenomenon and its consequences for the phenology of organisms. Examining the limits of phenotypic plasticity may be an important goal for future research. Extremely low spring temperatures in 2013 (coldest spring in 40 years) resulted in birds laying unusually late, and it was followed in 2014 by the earliest breeding season on record (warmest spring in 40 years). Here, we present results concerning breeding phenology and double-broodedness in the Great Tit (Parus major) and the Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) in 2013 and 2014 in an urban parkland and a deciduous forest in central Poland. Great Tits started laying eggs 18.2 days later in 2013 than in 2014 in the parkland, whereas the analogous difference was 21.1 days in the forest. Blue Tits started laying eggs in the parkland 18.5 days later in 2013 than in 2014, while the analogous difference was 21.6 days in the forest. The difference in the proportion of second clutches in Great Tits between 2013 (fewer second clutches) and 2014 (more second clutches) was highly significant in the parkland and in the forest. This rather large extent of breeding plasticity has developed in reaction to challenges of irregular inter-annual variability of climatic conditions. Such a buffer of plasticity may be sufficient for Blue Tits and Great Tits to adjust the timing of breeding to the upcoming climate changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michał Glądalski
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland.
| | - Mirosława Bańbura
- Museum of Natural History, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Kilińskiego 101, 90-011, Łódź, Poland
| | - Adam Kaliński
- Department of Teacher Training and Biological Diversity Studies, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 1/3, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Marcin Markowski
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Joanna Skwarska
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Jarosław Wawrzyniak
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Piotr Zieliński
- Department of Ecology and Vertebrate Zoology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
| | - Jerzy Bańbura
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237, Łódź, Poland
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13
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Glądalski M, Wawrzyniak J, Bańbura M, Kaliński A, Markowski M, Skwarska J, Zieliński P, BaŃBura J. Long-Term Changes in Population Density of Nest-Box Breeding Great Tits and Blue Tits in Two Contrasting Habitats in Central Poland. POLISH JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY 2016. [DOI: 10.3161/15052249pje2016.64.3.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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14
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Hinsley SA, Bellamy PE, Hill RA, Ferns PN. Recent Shift in Climate Relationship Enables Prediction of the Timing of Bird Breeding. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0155241. [PMID: 27182711 PMCID: PMC4868293 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0155241] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2016] [Accepted: 04/26/2016] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shelley A. Hinsley
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Paul E. Bellamy
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom
| | - Ross A. Hill
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom
| | - Peter N. Ferns
- Cardiff School of Biosciences, BIOSI2, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
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15
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Indykiewicz P. Egg Losses Caused by Cold Snap in the Black-Headed Gull,Chroicocephalus ridibundusL. POLISH JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY 2015. [DOI: 10.3161/15052249pje2015.63.3.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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16
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Pontarp M, Johansson J, Jonzén N, Lundberg P. Adaptation of timing of life history traits and population dynamic responses to climate change in spatially structured populations. Evol Ecol 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s10682-015-9759-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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17
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Hinks AE, Cole EF, Daniels KJ, Wilkin TA, Nakagawa S, Sheldon BC. Scale-dependent phenological synchrony between songbirds and their caterpillar food source. Am Nat 2015; 186:84-97. [PMID: 26098341 DOI: 10.1086/681572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
In seasonal environments, the timing of reproduction has important fitness consequences. Our current understanding of the determinants of reproductive phenology in natural systems is limited because studies often ignore the spatial scale on which animals interact with their environment. When animals use a restricted amount of space and the phenology of resources is spatially variable, selection may favor sensitivity to small-scale environmental variation. Population-level studies of how songbirds track the changing phenology of their food source have been influential in explaining how populations adjust to changing climates but have largely ignored the spatial scale at which phenology varies. We explored whether individual great tits (Parus major) synchronize their breeding with phenological events in their local environment and investigated the spatial scale at which this occurs. We demonstrate marked variation in the timing of food availability, at a spatial scale relevant to individual birds, and that such local variation predicts the breeding phenology of individuals. Using a 45-year data set, we show that measures of vegetation phenology at very local scales are the most important predictors of timing of breeding within years, suggesting that birds can fine-tune their phenology to that of other trophic levels. Knowledge of the determinants of variation in reproductive behavior at different spatial scales is likely to be critical in understanding how selection operates on breeding phenology in natural populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amy E Hinks
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, Tinbergen Building, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
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18
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Kharouba HM, Vellend M. Flowering time of butterfly nectar food plants is more sensitive to temperature than the timing of butterfly adult flight. J Anim Ecol 2015; 84:1311-21. [PMID: 25823582 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2014] [Accepted: 03/06/2015] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
1. Variation among species in their phenological responses to temperature change suggests that shifts in the relative timing of key life cycle events between interacting species are likely to occur under climate warming. However, it remains difficult to predict the prevalence and magnitude of these shifts given that there have been few comparisons of phenological sensitivities to temperature across interacting species. 2. Here, we used a broad-scale approach utilizing collection records to compare the temperature sensitivity of the timing of adult flight in butterflies vs. flowering of their potential nectar food plants (days per °C) across space and time in British Columbia, Canada. 3. On average, the phenology of both butterflies and plants advanced in response to warmer temperatures. However, the two taxa were differentially sensitive to temperature across space vs. across time, indicating the additional importance of nontemperature cues and/or local adaptation for many species. 4. Across butterfly-plant associations, flowering time was significantly more sensitive to temperature than the timing of butterfly flight and these sensitivities were not correlated. 5. Our results indicate that warming-driven shifts in the relative timing of life cycle events between butterflies and plants are likely to be prevalent, but that predicting the magnitude and direction of such changes in particular cases is going to require detailed, fine-scale data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather M Kharouba
- The Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 2212 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Center for Population Biology, University of California at Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, 95616, USA
| | - Mark Vellend
- The Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 2212 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.,Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, J1K 2R1, Canada
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19
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Kharouba HM, Vellend M, Sarfraz RM, Myers JH. The effects of experimental warming on the timing of a plant-insect herbivore interaction. J Anim Ecol 2015; 84:785-796. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12328] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2014] [Accepted: 12/12/2014] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Heather M. Kharouba
- The Biodiversity Research Centre; University of British Columbia; 2212 Main Mall Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
- Center for Population Biology; University of California at Davis; One Shields Avenue Davis CA 95616 USA
| | - Mark Vellend
- Département de Biologie; Université de Sherbrooke; Sherbrooke Québec J1K 2R1 Canada
| | - Rana M. Sarfraz
- The Biodiversity Research Centre; University of British Columbia; 2212 Main Mall Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Judith H. Myers
- The Biodiversity Research Centre; University of British Columbia; 2212 Main Mall Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
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20
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Kullberg C, Fransson T, Hedlund J, Jonzén N, Langvall O, Nilsson J, Bolmgren K. Change in spring arrival of migratory birds under an era of climate change, Swedish data from the last 140 years. AMBIO 2015; 44 Suppl 1:S69-77. [PMID: 25576282 PMCID: PMC4289004 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-014-0600-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Many migratory bird species have advanced their spring arrival during the latest decades, most probably due to climate change. However, studies on migratory phenology in the period before recent global warming are scarce. We have analyzed a historical dataset (1873-1917) of spring arrival to southern and central Sweden of 14 migratory bird species. In addition, we have used relative differences between historical and present-day observations (1984-2013) to evaluate the effect of latitude and migratory strategy on day of arrival over time. There was a larger change in spring phenology in short-distance migrants than in long-distance migrants. Interestingly, the results further suggest that climate change has affected the phenology of short-distance migrants more in southern than in central Sweden. The results suggest that the much earlier calculated arrival to southern Sweden among short-distance migrants mirrors a change in location of wintering areas, hence, connecting migration phenology and wintering range shifts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cecilia Kullberg
- Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden,
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21
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Jankowiak Ł, Pietruszewska H, Wysocki D. Weather conditions and breeding season length in blackbird (Turdus merula). FOLIA ZOOLOGICA 2014. [DOI: 10.25225/fozo.v63.i4.a3.2014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Łukasz Jankowiak
- Department of Vertebrate Anatomy and Zoology, University of Szczecin, Wąska 13, PL-71-412 Szczecin, Poland
| | - Hanna Pietruszewska
- Department of Vertebrate Anatomy and Zoology, University of Szczecin, Wąska 13, PL-71-412 Szczecin, Poland
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22
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Glądalski M, Bańbura M, Kaliński A, Markowski M, Skwarska J, Wawrzyniak J, Zieliński P, Bańbura J. Extreme weather event in spring 2013 delayed breeding time of Great Tit and Blue Tit. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:2169-73. [PMID: 24659171 PMCID: PMC4234888 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-014-0816-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2013] [Revised: 03/04/2014] [Accepted: 03/04/2014] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
The impact of climatic changes on life cycles by re-scheduling the timing of reproduction is an important topic in studies of biodiversity. Global warming causes and will probably cause in the future not only raising temperatures but also an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. In 2013, the winter in central and north Europe ended late, with low temperatures and long-retained snow cover--this extreme weather phenomenon acted in opposition to the increasing temperature trend. In 2013, thermal conditions measured by the warmth sum in the period 15 March–15 April, a critical time for early breeding passerines, went far beyond the range of the warmth sums for at least 40 preceding years. Regardless of what was the reason for the extreme early spring 2013 and assuming that there is a potential for more atypical years because of climate change, we should look closely at every extreme phenomenon and its consequences for the phenology of organisms. In this paper, we report that the prolonged occurrence of winter conditions during the time that is crucial for Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) and Great Tit (Parus major) reproduction caused a substantial delay in the onset of egg laying in comparison with typical springs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michał Glądalski
- Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237 Łódź, Poland.
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23
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Bartošová L, Bauer Z, Trnka M, Štěpánek P, Žalud Z. Climatic factors and their influence on onset and duration of phenological phases of chosen plants at locations south Moravia during 1961-2007. ACTA UNIVERSITATIS AGRICULTURAE ET SILVICULTURAE MENDELIANAE BRUNENSIS 2014. [DOI: 10.11118/actaun201058020035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
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24
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Does the temporal mismatch hypothesis match in boreal populations? Oecologia 2014; 176:595-605. [DOI: 10.1007/s00442-014-3022-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2014] [Accepted: 06/30/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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25
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Bartošová L, Trnka M, Bauer Z, Možný M, Stěpánek P, Zalud Z. Phenological differences among selected residents and long-distance migrant bird species in central Europe. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2014; 58:809-817. [PMID: 23640249 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-013-0661-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2012] [Revised: 03/16/2013] [Accepted: 03/22/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
The phenological responses to climate of residents and migrants (short- and long-distance) differ. Although few previous studies have focussed on this topic, the agree that changes in phenology are more apparent for residents than for long-distance migrants. We analysed the breeding times of two selected residents (Sitta europaea, Parus major) and one long-distance migrant (Ficedula albicollis) from 1961 to 2007 in central Europe. The timing of the phenophases of all three bird species showed a significant advance to earlier times. Nevertheless, the most marked shift was observed for the long-distance migrant (1.9 days per decade on average in mean laying date with linearity at the 99.9% confidence level). In contrast, the shifts shown by the residents were smaller (1.6 days for S. europaea and 1.5 days for P. major also on average in mean laying date for both, with linearity at the 95% confidence level). Spearman rank correlation coefficients calculated for pairs of phenophases of given bird species in 20-year subsamples (e.g. 1961-1980, 1962-1981) showed higher phenological separation between the residents and the migrant. This separation is most apparent after the 1980s. Thus, our results indicate that the interconnections between the studied phenological stages of the three bird species are becoming weaker.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lenka Bartošová
- CzechGlobe-Global Change Research Centre AS CR, v.v.i., Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic,
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26
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Local weather differently affects collared flycatcher reproduction at different altitudes. Open Life Sci 2013. [DOI: 10.2478/s11535-013-0230-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
AbstractTemperature and precipitation are amongst the most important characteristics of local climatic conditions affecting the breeding biology of birds. Many bird species experiencing higher temperatures lay their eggs earlier and/or have bigger clutches. Higher precipitation can lead to a decrease in food availability and/or an increase of the costs of thermoregulation, which consequently may result in lower breeding success. In this paper we present differences in the breeding biology of two collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) populations experiencing different temperatures and precipitation conditions associated with the different altitudes of their localities. We found differences in clutch size and nest success, as well as small differences in dates of egg laying. The population breeding at a higher altitude, and thus harsher conditions, was characterized by smaller clutches and lower nest success. In addition, this population was significantly affected by local weather, and showed correlation between both the beginning of egg laying and the local temperature, as well as between nest success and precipitation. Conversely, the population inhabiting the lower elevation locality with milder conditions showed no relationships with temperature or precipitation. These results suggest that severe conditions, such as high altitude, enhance the effect of local climatic conditions on collared flycatcher breeding ecology.
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27
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Pautasso M. Observed impacts of climate change on terrestrial birds in Europe: an overview. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1080/11250003.2011.627381] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
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28
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Burger C, Belskii E, Eeva T, Laaksonen T, Mägi M, Mänd R, Qvarnström A, Slagsvold T, Veen T, Visser ME, Wiebe KL, Wiley C, Wright J, Both C. Climate change, breeding date and nestling diet: how temperature differentially affects seasonal changes in pied flycatcher diet depending on habitat variation. J Anim Ecol 2012; 81:926-36. [PMID: 22356622 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2656.2012.01968.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Claudia Burger
- Animal Ecology Group, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Studies, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
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29
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Lyons SK, Wagner PJ, Dzikiewicz K. Ecological correlates of range shifts of Late Pleistocene mammals. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2010; 365:3681-93. [PMID: 20980316 PMCID: PMC2981999 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding and predicting how species' distributions will shift as climate changes are central questions in ecology today. The late Quaternary of North America represents a natural experiment in which we can evaluate how species responded during the expansion and contraction of the glaciers. Here, we ask whether species' range shifts differ because of taxonomic affinity, life-history traits, body size or topographic heterogeneity and whether the species survived the megafaunal extinction. There was no difference in range shifts between victims and survivors of the megafaunal extinction. In general, the change in the size of a species' range is not well correlated with any of the ecological or life-history traits evaluated. However, there are significant relationships between some variables and the movements of the centroids of ranges. Differences in the distances shifted exist among orders, although this is probably a result of body size differences as larger bodied species show larger shifts. Although there are a few exceptions, the distance that species shifted their range was weakly correlated with life-history traits. Finally, species in more topographically heterogeneous areas show smaller shifts than species in less-diverse areas. Overall, these results indicate that when trying to predict species range shifts in the future, body size, lifespan and the topographic relief of the landscape should be taken into account.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Kathleen Lyons
- Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC 20013-7012, USA.
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