Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccination of children in Germany

Cost-Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination in Healthy Children: A 10-Year Population-Based Study

Background/Objectives: Seasonal influenza annually puts a significant burden on the pediatric population, especially the youngest, causing severe illness and death. Additionally, associated healthcare costs cause a significant financial strain on healthcare systems. While vaccination is the most effective prevention method, its cost-effectiveness for healthy children remains unassessed. Methods: Using the Pedianet database spanning from 2009 to 2019, we analyzed influenza cases among 6-month-olds to 14-year-olds in Italy. Data included influenza-related medical visits, prescriptions, exams, emergency visits, hospitalizations, and costs. Adverse events and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were considered from the existing literature. A static decision-tree model compared annual vaccination strategies, assessing probabilities for influenza or influenza-like illnesses by vaccination status. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated, along with sensitivity analyses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curve generation. Results: Mean total influenza costs for vaccinated children averaged EUR 18.6 (range 0-3175.9, including EUR 15.79 for the influenza vaccination), whereas costs for unvaccinated children were consistently lower at around EUR 4.6 (range 0-3250.1). The average ICER for years where vaccine and virus strains are matched was EUR 29,831 per QALY, which is below the EUR 40,000 threshold set by the Italian National Health Services. The ICER values range from EUR 13,736 (2017/2018) to EUR 72,153 (2013/2014). Averted influenza costs averaged EUR 23 per case, with fluctuations over the years. In most observed years, influenza vaccination was cost-effective from the healthcare providers' standpoint. The exception was 2009-2010, due to a mismatch between vaccine and virus strains. Conclusions: This study highlights the economic viability of influenza vaccination, especially when virus and vaccine strains align. It demonstrates the potential of vaccination programs in preserving children's health and well-being while managing healthcare costs.

Cost-Effectiveness and Health Impacts of Different Influenza Vaccination Strategies for Children in China

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to evaluate the economic and health impacts of 3 influenza vaccines available in China, including trivalent inactivated vaccine, quadrivalent inactivated vaccine, and live attenuated influenza vaccine, for children aged 6 months to 18 years.

METHODS

Two decision-analytic models were developed to simulate 4 vaccination strategies. Outcomes included total costs from a societal perspective in 2021, quality-adjusted life-year loss, numbers of outpatient and inpatient cases, and deaths avoided using each strategy. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the uncertainty of model inputs.

RESULTS

For children aged 6 months to 3 years, trivalent inactivated vaccine saved $48 million and avoided a loss of 17,637 quality-adjusted life-years compared with no vaccination. For children aged 3-18 years, quadrivalent inactivated vaccine was cost-effective compared with trivalent inactivated vaccine, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $32,948.5/quality-adjusted life-year (willingness-to-pay threshold=$37,653/quality-adjusted life-year), which was sensitive to the RR of vaccine effectiveness of quadrivalent inactivated vaccine versus of trivalent inactivated vaccine. When compared with quadrivalent inactivated vaccine, live attenuated influenza vaccine was $1.28 billion more costly but gained an additional 13,560 quality-adjusted life-years; its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $123,983.8/quality-adjusted life-year. Live attenuated influenza vaccine would be cost-effective if its vaccine effectiveness was >0.79. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that quadrivalent inactivated vaccine, trivalent inactivated vaccine, live attenuated influenza vaccine, and no vaccination were cost-effective in 55.94%, 33.09%, 10.97%, and 0% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

Trivalent inactivated vaccine was cost-effective compared with no vaccination in children aged 6 months to 18 years. Of the 3 vaccination strategies for children aged 3-18 months, quadrivalent inactivated vaccine appears to be the most cost-effective.

Cost-Effectiveness of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccine for Children: A Systematic Review

Introduction: The public health burden of seasonal influenza is significant, and influenza vaccination is the most effective preventive strategy. Nonetheless, the recommendation of influenza immunization in the pediatric population is still underrepresented. Our work aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of pediatric influenza vaccination with the intranasal live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). Methods: We performed a systematic review of publications from PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus, covering the period from 1 January 2000 to 30 April 2022. We searched for economic evaluations that studied the impacts of LAIV among children or the pediatric population. Studies that considered incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), in terms of cost per gain in life years, quality adjusted life years, or disability-adjusted life years, were covered. The Consensus Health Economic Criteria (CHEC) Extended Checklist was adopted to check the quality of the included studies. Results: Thirteen studies were included for the final review that were of good or excellent quality. The implementation of influenza vaccination with intranasal LAIV in the pediatric population was cost-effective when compared to the immunization strategies for the elderly and the high-risk groups alone or with no vaccination. The efficacy of LAIV for children, vaccination coverage, and the vaccine price were significant factors to the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for children. Another significant contribution to the cost-effectiveness was the herd immunity arising from pediatric immunization against influenza. Conclusions: The implementation of influenza vaccination in the pediatric population with LAIV is cost-effective. Policymakers and health authorities may consider the evidence on the development of the pediatric influenza vaccination in their immunization schedules.

Cost-utility analysis of increasing uptake of universal seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) in children aged 6 months and older in Germany

Seasonal influenza causes many cases and related deaths in Europe annually, despite ongoing vaccination programs for older adults and people at high-risk of complications. Children have the highest risk of infection and play a key role in disease transmission. Our cost-utility analysis, based on a dynamic transmission model, estimated the impact of increasing the current vaccination coverage with inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Germany to all (healthy and high-risk) children under 5 years of age (40% uptake), or under 18 years (40% uptake), or only high-risk children under 18 years (90% uptake). Eight influenza complications were modeled, hospitalization and death rates were based on age and risk status. All three vaccination strategies provided more health benefits than the existing vaccination situation, reducing influenza cases, complications, hospitalizations and deaths across the entire population. The strategy targeting all children under 5 years was highly cost-effective (€6/quality-adjusted life-year gained, payer perspective). The other strategies were cost saving from the payer and societal perspectives. The vaccination strategy targeting all children under 18 years was estimated to provide the most health benefits (preventing on average 1.66 million cases, 179,000 complications, 14,000 hospitalizations and 3,600 deaths due to influenza annually) and the most cost savings (annually €20.5 million and €731.3 million from payer and societal perspectives, respectively). Our analysis provides policy decision-makers with evidence supporting strategies to expand childhood influenza vaccination, to directly protect children, and indirectly all other unvaccinated age groups, in order to reduce the humanistic and economic burden on healthcare systems and society.

Parental Preferences of Influenza Vaccination for Children in China: A National Survey with a Discrete Choice Experiment

The influenza vaccination coverage among children is low in China. We aimed to conduct a nationwide survey to quantify parental preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for influenza vaccination for their children. Parents with children aged six months to 18 years from six provinces in China were investigated by a discrete choice experiment regarding six influenza vaccination attributes. Mixed logit models were used to estimate the relative importance of vaccine attributes and parents’ WTP. Interaction analysis and subgroup analysis were conducted to explore preference heterogeneity. A total of 1206 parents were included in the analysis. Parents reported vaccine effectiveness as the most important vaccine attribute. The mode of vaccine administration had no significant impact on parents’ preferences. Parents aged over 30 years with higher education or income levels were more likely to prefer no influenza vaccination for their children. The largest marginal WTP (CNY 802.57) for vaccination and the largest increase in vaccine uptake (41.85%) occurred with improved vaccine effectiveness from 30% to 80%. Parents from central regions or mid-latitude areas had a relatively lower WTP than those from other regions. No significant difference in the relative importance of vaccine attributes were observed among parents from various regions of China.

Cost-effectiveness of childhood influenza vaccination in Europe: results from a systematic review

Introduction: Influenza can be a significant public health problem. Nevertheless, it is preventable through vaccination. Concerning the pediatric population, the recommendation of influenza vaccination is under-represented in many European countries. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of universal childhood vaccination against influenza in Europe.Areas covered: We conducted a systematic review of original article assessing the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination by searching PubMed, Embase and Scopus databases for studies in English, starting from January 1^st, 2010 up to October 21^st, 2020.Expert opinion: Our literature review showed that all studies identified highlight that pediatric vaccinations using a live vaccine, especially in the quadrivalent formulation, are cost-effective compared to current vaccinations (elderly and at-risk groups) with TIV or no vaccination. A significant contribution to this positive economic profile is due to the indirect protection. Already many clinical data report the relevant direct and indirect impact of vaccination against influenza for younger subjects. The recent studies collected in this review showed also that the pediatric vaccination is also cost-effective. Therefore, decision-makers should now consider this new favorable evidence.

Inclusion of Safety-Related Issues in Economic Evaluations for Seasonal Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Review

(1) Background: Vaccines for seasonal influenza are a good preventive and cost-effective strategy. However, it is unknown if and how these economic evaluations include the adverse events following immunization (AEFI), and what the impact of such inclusion is on the health economic outcomes. (2) Methods: We searched the literature, up to January 2020, to identify economic evaluations of seasonal influenza vaccines that considered AEFIs. The review protocol was published in PROSPERO (CDR42017058523). (3) Results: A total of 52 economic evaluations considered AEFI-related parameters in their analyses, reflecting 16% of the economic evaluations on seasonal influenza vaccines in the initial study selection. Most studies used the societal perspective (64%) and evaluated vaccination of children (37%). Where considered, studies included direct medical costs of AEFIs (90%), indirect costs (27%), and disutilities/quality-adjusted life years loss due to AEFIs (37%). The majority of these studies accounted for the effects of the costs of AEFI on cost-effectiveness for Guillain–Barré syndrome. In those papers allowing cost share estimation, direct medical cost of AFEIs was less than 2% of total direct costs. (4) Conclusions: Although the overall impact of AEFIs on the cost-effectiveness outcomes was found to be low, we urge their inclusion in economic evaluations of seasonal influenza vaccines to reflect comprehensive reports for the decision makers and end-users of the vaccination strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pediatric Influenza Vaccination in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of extending the Dutch influenza vaccination program for elderly and medical high-risk groups to include pediatric influenza vaccination, taking indirect protection into account.

METHODS

An age-structured dynamic transmission model was used that was calibrated to influenza-associated GP visits over 4 seasons (2010-2011 to 2013-2014). The clinical and economic impact of different pediatric vaccination strategies were compared over 20 years, varying the targeted age range, the vaccine type for children or elderly and high-risk groups. Outcome measures include averted symptomatic infections and deaths, societal costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 4% and 1.5% annually.

RESULTS

At an assumed coverage of 50%, adding pediatric vaccination for 2- to 17-year-olds with quadrivalent live-attenuated vaccine to the current vaccination program for elderly and medical high-groups with quadrivalent inactivated vaccine was estimated to avert, on average, 401 820 symptomatic cases and 72 deaths per year. Approximately half of averted symptomatic cases and 99% of averted deaths were prevented in other age groups than 2- to 17-year-olds due to herd immunity. The cumulative discounted 20-year economic impact was 35 068 QALYs gained and €1687 million saved, that is, the intervention was cost-saving. This vaccination strategy had the highest probability of being the most cost-effective strategy considered, dominating pediatric strategies targeting 2- to 6-year-olds or 2- to 12-year-olds or strategies with trivalent inactivated vaccine.

CONCLUSION

Modeling indicates that introducing pediatric influenza vaccination in The Netherlands is cost-saving, reducing the influenza-related disease burden substantially.

Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Childhood Vaccination Against Seasonal Influenza in Germany

OBJECTIVES

In Germany, routine influenza vaccination with quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) is recommended and reimbursed for individuals ≥60 years of age and individuals with underlying chronic conditions. The present study examines the cost-effectiveness of a possible extension of the recommendation to include strategies of childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza using QIV.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was used to examine the epidemiological impact of different childhood vaccination strategies. The outputs were used in a health economic decision tree to calculate the costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a societal and a third-party payer (TPP) perspective. Strain-specific epidemiology, vaccine uptake, and vaccine efficacy data from the 10 non-pandemic seasons from 2003/2004 to 2013/2014 were used, and cost data were drawn mainly from a health insurance claims data analysis and supplemented by estimates from literature. Uncertainty is explored via scenario, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Vaccinating 2- to 9-year-olds with QIV assuming a vaccine uptake of 40% is cost-saving with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.66 from a societal perspective and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €998/QALY from a TPP perspective. Lower and higher vaccine uptakes show marginal effects, while extending the target group to 2- to 17-year-olds further increases the health benefits while still being below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. Assuming no vaccine-induced herd protection has a negative effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio, but childhood vaccination remains cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Routine childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza in Germany is most likely to be cost-saving from a societal perspective and highly cost-effective from a TPP perspective.

The effects of public health insurance on health behaviors: Evidence from the fifth year of Medicaid expansion

This study examines the longer term relationship between public health insurance expansions and health behaviors. I leverage geographic and temporal variation in the implementation of the Affordable Care Act-facilitated Medicaid expansions and provide the first estimates of the expansions' behavioral impacts during their first 5 years. Using national survey data from the 2010 to 2018 Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System and a difference-in-differences regression design, I show that the Medicaid expansions increase utilization of certain forms of preventive care, while reducing heavy drinking. I also find suggestive evidence that the expansions reduce smoking and increase the probability of exercise. These results stand in contrast with earlier studies that used only 2 or 3 years of postexpansion data and found no detectable effect of the Medicaid expansions on health behaviors in the short run. My results, combined with evidence from previous studies, suggest that public insurance expansions may not prompt an immediate change in health behaviors, but newly eligible populations do increase investments in healthy behaviors over time. In the long run, Medicaid expansions may help reduce engagement in risky behaviors like drinking and smoking among low-income people.

Socioeconomic costs of influenza complications in hospitalized children

Introduction

Influenza may be correlated with a high number of complications and generate high costs of treatment. The study aimed to estimate the socioeconomic significance of hospitalized influenza cases.

Material and methods

In the 2015-2016 flu season 157 children (median age 17 months) were hospitalized in the Department of Pediatrics. The diagnosis was confirmed with the rapid influenza diagnostic test (RIDT), polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or both. The study assessed the direct and indirect costs of hospitalization, including the cost of treatment, work absence and the related income lost.

Results

The frequency of complications among the children hospitalized was 57.3% (90/157), mainly due to pneumonia (31%) and bronchitis (23%). Patients with complications required longer hospital treatment (8 vs. 6 days, p < 0.01) and generated a higher total cost (€ 1042 vs. € 779, p < 0.01), including the patient's and systemic costs (€123 vs. € 94, p < 0.01 and € 916 vs. € 690, p < 0.01, respectively). Patients with complications had a 3.5-fold higher risk of generating higher (i.e., above median) costs. The difference in the costs between children aged under 2 and those over 2 years old was greater than the difference between children aged under 5 and those over 5 years old (€ 358 vs. € 253).

Conclusions

Influenza complications generate higher systemic and patient's costs, both direct and indirect. The group of children for whom the difference is especially marked is under 2 years of age.

Vaccinating children against influenza: overall cost-effective with potential for undesirable outcomes

BACKGROUND

The present study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of an influenza vaccination program for children in the Netherlands. This requires an evaluation of the long-term impact of such a program on the burden of influenza across all age groups, using a transmission model that accounts for the seasonal variability in vaccine effectiveness and the shorter duration of protection following vaccination as compared to natural infection.

METHODS

We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a stochastic dynamic transmission model that has been calibrated to reported GP visits with influenza-like illness in the Netherlands over 11 seasons (2003/2004 to 2014/2015). We analyzed the costs and effects of extending the current program with vaccination of children aged 2-16 years at 50% coverage over 20 consecutive seasons. We measured the effects in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and we adopted a societal perspective.

RESULTS

The childhood vaccination program is estimated to have an average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3944 per QALY gained and is cost-effective in the general population (across 1000 simulations; conventional Dutch threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained). The childhood vaccination program is not estimated to be cost-effective for the target-group itself with an average ICER of €57,054 per QALY gained. Uncertainty analyses reveal that these ICERs hide a wide range of outcomes. Even though introduction of a childhood vaccination program decreases the number of infections, it tends to lead to larger epidemics: in 23.3% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program results in an increase in seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%, which is expected to cause serious strain on the health care system. In 6.4% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program leads to a net loss of QALYs. These findings are robust across different targeted age groups and vaccination coverages.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling indicates that childhood influenza vaccination is cost-effective in the Netherlands. However, childhood influenza vaccination is not cost-effective when only outcomes for the children themselves are considered. In approximately a quarter of the simulations, the introduction of a childhood vaccination program increases the frequency of seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%. The possibility of an overall health loss cannot be excluded.

Updated Guidelines for the Management of Acute Otitis Media in Children by the Italian Society of Pediatrics: Prevention

BACKGROUND

In recent years, new information has been acquired regarding the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of acute otitis media (AOM). The Italian Pediatric Society, therefore, decided to issue an update to the Italian Pediatric Society guidelines published in 2010.

METHODS

The search was conducted on Pubmed, and only those studies regarding the pediatric age alone, in English or Italian, published between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018, were included. Each study included in the review was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) methodology. The quality of the systematic reviews was evaluated using the A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) 2 appraisal tool. The guidelines were formulated using the GRADE methodology by a multidisciplinary panel of experts.

RESULTS

The importance of eliminating risk factors (passive smoking, environmental pollution, use of pacifier, obesity, limitation of day-care center attendance) and the promotion of breastfeeding and hygiene practices (nasal lavages) was confirmed. The importance of pneumococcal vaccination in the prevention of AOM was reiterated with regard to the prevention of both the first episode of AOM and recurrences. Grommets can be inserted in selected cases of recurrent AOM that did not respond to all other prevention strategies. Antibiotic prophylaxis is not recommended for the prevention of recurrent AOM, except in certain carefully selected cases. The use of complementary therapies, probiotics, xylitol and vitamin D is not recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevention of episodes of AOM requires the elimination of risk factors and pneumococcal and influenza vaccination. The use of other products such as probiotics and vitamin D is not supported by adequate evidence.

Cost Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines Compared with Trivalent Influenza Vaccines in Young Children and Older Adults in Korea

INTRODUCTION

Trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) are currently reimbursed for subjects aged ≥ 65 years and children between 6 and 59 months of age under a national immunization program in South Korea. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) are expected to address the potential problem of influenza B-lineage mismatch for TIVs.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this analysis was to compare the cost effectiveness of QIV versus TIV in children aged 6-59 months and older adults ≥ 65 years of age in South Korea.

METHODS

A 1-year static population model was employed to compare the costs and outcomes of a QIV vaccination program compared with TIV in children aged 6-59 months and older adults ≥ 65 years of age in South Korea. Influenza-related parameters (probabilities, health resource use, and costs) were derived from an analysis of the National Health Insurance System claims database between 2010 and 2013 under a broad and narrow set of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes used to identify influenza. Other inputs were extracted from published literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (2016 South Korean Won [KRW] per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained) were estimated using a 'limited' societal perspective as per the Korean pharmacoeconomic guidelines. QALYs lost due to premature mortality were discounted at 5% annually.

RESULTS

For both age groups combined, under the narrow definition of influenza, QIV is expected to prevent nearly 16,000 (2923 in children and 13,011 in older adults) medically attended influenza cases, nearly 8000 (672 in children, 7048 in older adults) cases of complications, and over 230 (0 in children, 238 in older adults) deaths annually compared with TIV. The impact of using QIV versus TIV in this setting translates into savings of KRW 24 billion (KRW 0.6 billion in children, KRW 23.4 billion in older adults) in annual medical costs, and over 2100 (18 in children, 2084 in older adults) QALYs. Under the broad definition, the corresponding results are over 190,000 (50,697 in children, 140,644 in older adults) influenza cases, over 37,000 (12,623 in children, 24,526 in older adults) complications, 270 deaths (0 in children, 270 in older adults), KRW 94.22 billion (KRW 16 billion in children, KRW 78.2 billion in older adults), and over 3500 QALYs saved (316 in children, 3260 in older adults).

CONCLUSION

The use of QIV over TIV was estimated to not be cost effective in children 6-59 months of age, but cost saving in older adults, using the narrow definition of influenza; however, QIV use was cost saving in both age groups using the broad definition. QIV is expected to yield more benefits in older adults ≥ 65 years of age than in children aged 6-59 months due to higher influenza-related mortality and costs among the older adults. Further analyses considering the indirect effects of influenza vaccination in children are required.

Cost-effectiveness of vaccines for the prevention of seasonal influenza in different age groups: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Given the economic burden of seasonal influenza for the healthcare system, we performed a systematic review aiming to update available evidence on the cost-effectiveness of vaccination of seasonal influenza in different age groups, including children.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature on economic evaluations of seasonal influenza vaccination programs in children and adults was carried out. The following databases were searched (January 2013 - April 2018): Medline and PREMEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit and databases of the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (DARE, HTA, NHS EED).

RESULTS

A total of 11 economic evaluations were included. Methodological quality of included studies was acceptable. Scientific evidence shows that seasonal influenza vaccination programs in school-age children can be a cost-effective alternative from national health system perspective and can be cost-saving from societal perspective in European countries. However, available evidence does not allow us to conclude that influenza vaccination programs in healthy adults under 65 years of age were a cost-effective alternative in our context, due to the high uncertainty and the lack of studies carried out in Spanish context.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination programs for the prevention of seasonal influenza in school-age children (3-16 years) can be a cost-effective strategy.

Perspectives from the Society for Pediatric Research: Decreased Effectiveness of the Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine

The intranasal live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV), FluMist, has been widely appreciated by pediatricians, parents, and children alike for its ease of administration. However, concerns regarding lack of effectiveness in recent influenza seasons led to the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendation to administer inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs), and not LAIV, during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons. Given that data from previous years demonstrated equivalent and even improved efficacy of LAIV compared with IIV, these recent data were surprising, raising many questions about the potential mechanisms underlying this change. This review seeks to summarize the history of LAIV studies and ACIP recommendations with a focus on the recent decrease in vaccine effectiveness (VE) and discordant results among studies performed in different countries. Decreased VE for A/H1N1pdm09 viruses represents the most consistent finding across studies, as VE has been low every season these viruses predominated since 2010-11. Potential explanations underlying diminished effectiveness include the hypothesis that prior vaccination, reduced thermostability of A/H1N1pdm09, addition of a fourth virus, or reduced replication fitness of A/H1N1pdm09 strains may have contributed to this phenomenon. Ongoing studies and potential alterations to LAIV formulations provide hope for a return of effective LAIV in future influenza seasons.

Translation of the UK Pediatric Influenza Vaccination Programme in Primary Schools to 13 European Countries Using a Dynamic Transmission Model

Objectives: To simulate the impact of a pediatric influenza vaccination programme using quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) in Europe by applying coverage rates achieved in the United Kingdom during the 2014-2015 season and to compare the model outcomes to the UK results. Methods: We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model adapted to the demography, contact patterns and influenza incidence of 13 European countries, with a 10-year horizon. The reference strategy was the unchanged country-specific coverage rate, using quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (assumed efficacy against infection from 45% in 1-year-old children to 60% in healthy adults). In the evaluated strategy, 56.8% of 5-10-year-old children were additionally vaccinated with QLAIV (assumed efficacy 80%), as was the case in 2014-2015 in the United Kingdom's primary school pilot areas. Symptomatic influenza cases and associated medical resources (primary care consultations [PCC], hospitalization, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions) were calculated. The evaluated versus reference strategies were compared using odds ratios (ORs) for PCC in the target (aged 5-10-years) and non-target adult (aged >17 years) populations as well as number needed to vaccinate (NNV) with QLAIV to avert one PCC, hospitalization or ICU admission. Model outcomes, averaged over 10 seasons, were compared with published real-life data from the United Kingdom for the 2014-2015 season. Results: Over 13 countries and 10 years, the evaluated strategy prevented 32.8 million of symptomatic influenza cases (172.3 vs 205.2 million). The resulting range of ORs for PCC was 0.18-0.48 among children aged 5-10-years, and the published OR in the United Kingdom was 0.06 (95% confidence interval [0.01; 0.62]). In adults, the range of ORs for PCC was 0.60-0.91 (UK OR=0.41 [0.19; 0.86]). NNV ranges were 6-19 per averted PCC (UK NNV=16), 530-1524 per averted hospitalization (UK NNV=317) and 5298-15 241 per averted ICU admission (UK NNV=2205). Conclusions: Across a range of European countries, our model shows the beneficial direct and indirect impact of a paediatric vaccination programme using QLAIV in primary school-aged children, consistent with what was observed during a single season in the United Kingdom. Recommendations for the implementation of pediatric vaccination programmes are, therefore, supported in Europe.

Direct and Indirect Protection with Pediatric Quadrivalent Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination in Europe Estimated by a Dynamic Transmission Model

Objectives: To estimate the public health impact of annual vaccination of children with a quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) across Europe. Methods: A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model was used to simulate influenza transmission across 14 European countries, comparing current vaccination coverage using a quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV) to a scenario whereby vaccination coverage was extended to 50% of 2-17 year-old children, using QLAIV. Differential equations described demographic changes, exposure to infectious individuals, recovery and immunity dynamics. For each country, the basic reproduction number (R0) was calibrated to published influenza incidence statistics. Assumed vaccine efficacy for children was 80% (QLAIV) and 59% (QIV). Symptomatic cases cumulated over 10 years were calculated per 100 000 person-years. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted on QLAIV efficacy in 7-17 year-olds (59% instead of 80%), durations of natural (±3 years; base case: 6, 12 years for influenza A, B respectively) and QLAIV vaccine-induced immunity (100% immunity loss after 1 season; base case: 30%), and R0 (+/-10% around all-year average value). Results: Across countries, annual QLAIV vaccination additionally prevents 1366-3604 symptomatic cases per 100 000 population (average 2495 /100 000, ie, a reduction of 47.6% of the cases which occur in the reference scenario with QIV vaccination only). Among children (2-17 years), QLAIV prevents 551-1555 cases per 100 000 population (average 990 /100 000, ie, 67.2% of current cases). Among adults, QLAIV indirectly prevents 726-2047 cases per 100 000 population (average 1466 /100 000, ie, 40.0% of current cases). The most impactful drivers of total protection were duration of natural immunity against influenza A, R0 and QLAIV immunity duration and efficacy. In all evaluated scenarios, there was a large direct and even larger indirect protection compared with the reference scenario. Conclusions: The model highlights direct and indirect protection benefits when vaccinating healthy children with QLAIV in Europe, across a range of demographic structures, contact patterns and vaccination coverage rates.

Direct and indirect effects of influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

After vaccination, vaccinees acquire some protection against infection and/or disease. Vaccination, therefore, reduces the number of infections in the population. Due to this herd protection, not everybody needs to be vaccinated to prevent infections from spreading.

METHODS

We quantify direct and indirect effects of influenza vaccination examining the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model as well as simulation results of a sophisticated simulation tool which allows for seasonal transmission of four influenza strains in a population with realistic demography and age-dependent contact patterns.

RESULTS

As shown analytically for the simple SIR and SIRS transmission models, indirect vaccination effects are bigger than direct ones if the effective reproduction number of disease transmission is close to the critical value of 1. Simulation results for 20-60% vaccination with live influenza vaccine of 2-17 year old children in Germany, averaged over 10 years (2017-26), confirm this result: four to seven times as many influenza cases are prevented among non-vaccinated individuals as among vaccinees. For complications like death due to influenza which occur much more frequently in the unvaccinated elderly than in the vaccination target group of children, indirect benefits can surpass direct ones by a factor of 20 or even more than 30.

CONCLUSIONS

The true effect of vaccination can be much bigger than what would be expected by only looking at vaccination coverage and vaccine efficacy.

Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years).

METHODS

A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year.

RESULTS

Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R ₀) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with QLAIV on public health and economic outcomes in France.

Current prospects and future challenges for nasal vaccine delivery

Nasal delivery offers many benefits over traditional approaches to vaccine administration. These include ease of administration without needles that reduces issues associated with needlestick injuries and disposal. Additionally, this route offers easy access to a key part of the immune system that can stimulate other mucosal sites throughout the body. Increased acceptance of nasal vaccine products in both adults and children has led to a burgeoning pipeline of nasal delivery technology. Key challenges and opportunities for the future will include translating in vivo data to clinical outcomes. Particular focus should be brought to designing delivery strategies that take into account the broad range of diseases, populations and healthcare delivery settings that stand to benefit from this unique mucosal route.

Cost Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccine for U.S. Children: Live Attenuated and Inactivated Influenza Vaccine

INTRODUCTION

Prior studies showed that live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) is more effective than inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in children aged 2-8 years, supporting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommendations in 2014 for preferential LAIV use in this age group. However, 2014-2015 U.S. effectiveness data indicated relatively poor effectiveness of both vaccines, leading CDC in 2015 to no longer prefer LAIV.

METHODS

An age-structured model of influenza transmission and vaccination was developed, which incorporated both direct and indirect protection induced by vaccination. Based on this model, the cost effectiveness of influenza vaccination strategies in children aged 2-8 years in the U.S. was estimated. The base case assumed a mixed vaccination strategy where 33.3% and 66.7% of vaccinated children aged 2-8 years receive LAIV and IIV, respectively. Analyses were performed in 2014-2015.

RESULTS

Using published meta-analysis vaccine effectiveness data (83% LAIV and 64% IIV), exclusive LAIV use would be a cost-effective strategy when vaccinating children aged 2-8 years, whereas IIV would not be preferred. However, when 2014-2015 U.S. effectiveness data (0% LAIV and 15% IIV) were used, IIV was likely to be preferred.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children aged 2-8 years is highly dependent on vaccine effectiveness; the vaccine type with higher effectiveness is preferred. In general, exclusive IIV use is preferred over LAIV use, as long as vaccine effectiveness is higher for IIV than for LAIV.

Unremarked or Unperformed? Systematic Review on Reporting of Validation Efforts of Health Economic Decision Models in Seasonal Influenza and Early Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Transparent reporting of validation efforts of health economic models give stakeholders better insight into the credibility of model outcomes. In this study we reviewed recently published studies on seasonal influenza and early breast cancer in order to gain insight into the reporting of model validation efforts in the overall health economic literature.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in Pubmed and Embase to retrieve health economic modelling studies published between 2008 and 2014. Reporting on model validation was evaluated by checking for the word validation, and by using AdViSHE (Assessment of the Validation Status of Health Economic decision models), a tool containing a structured list of relevant items for validation. Additionally, we contacted corresponding authors to ask whether more validation efforts were performed other than those reported in the manuscripts.

RESULTS

A total of 53 studies on seasonal influenza and 41 studies on early breast cancer were included in our review. The word validation was used in 16 studies (30 %) on seasonal influenza and 23 studies (56 %) on early breast cancer; however, in a minority of studies, this referred to a model validation technique. Fifty-seven percent of seasonal influenza studies and 71 % of early breast cancer studies reported one or more validation techniques. Cross-validation of study outcomes was found most often. A limited number of studies reported on model validation efforts, although good examples were identified. Author comments indicated that more validation techniques were performed than those reported in the manuscripts.

CONCLUSIONS

Although validation is deemed important by many researchers, this is not reflected in the reporting habits of health economic modelling studies. Systematic reporting of validation efforts would be desirable to further enhance decision makers' confidence in health economic models and their outcomes.

Estimates of the Public Health Impact of a Pediatric Vaccination Program Using an Intranasal Tetravalent Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccine in Belgium

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to estimate the public health outcomes of vaccinating Belgian children using an intranasal tetravalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) combined with current coverage of high-risk/elderly individuals using the trivalent inactivated vaccine.

METHODS

We used a deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model to simulate seasonal influenza transmission in the Belgian population under the current coverage or after extending vaccination with QLAIV to healthy children aged 2-17 years. Differential equations describe demographic changes, exposure to infectious individuals, infection recovery, and immunity dynamics. The basic reproduction number (R 0) was calibrated to the observed number of influenza doctor visits/year. Vaccine efficacy was 80 % (live-attenuated) and 59-68 % (inactivated). The 10-year incidence of symptomatic influenza was calculated with different coverage scenarios (add-on to current coverage).

RESULTS

Model calibration yielded R 0 = 1.1. QLAIV coverage of 75 % of those aged 2-17 years averted 374,000 symptomatic cases/year (57 % of the current number), 244,000 of which were among adults (indirect effect). Vaccinating 75 % of those aged 2-11 years and 50 % of those aged 12-17 years averted 333,200 cases/year (213,000 adult cases/year). Vaccinating only healthy children aged 2-5 years generated direct protection but limited indirect protection, even with 90 % coverage (40,800 averted adult cases/year; -8.4 %). Targeting all children averted twice as many high-risk cases as targeting high-risk children only (8485 vs. 4965/year with 75 % coverage). Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of results.

CONCLUSIONS

The model highlights the direct and indirect protection benefits when vaccinating healthy children with QLAIV in Belgium. Policies targeting only high-risk individuals or the youngest provide limited herd protection, as school-age children are important influenza vectors in the community.

Burden of influenza in Germany: a retrospective claims database analysis for the influenza season 2012/2013

OBJECTIVE

Seasonal influenza occurs in annual epidemics. The virus can cause severe illness and concomitant diseases with the highest risk for children, the elderly, and individuals with disease dispositions. The study objective is to assess the influenza burden in Germany.

METHODS

This retrospective claims data analysis used the Health Risk Institute research database containing anonymized data of 4 million individuals. The study period comprised the influenza season 2012/2013 in which patients with documented influenza were identified. Disease frequency rates were calculated for a population with disease dispositions and a population not at high risk. Disease burden was assessed based on health-services utilization during the influenza season. Vaccine rates were calculated by identifying vaccinations.

RESULTS

We observed 65,826 patients with influenza, resulting in 1,160,646 documented influenza cases after extrapolation. Overall, otitis media and pneumonia was higher in the influenza-infected population compared to the non-influenza-infected population and especially high in children. Hospitalization cost amounted to €87,202,485 with a mean stay of 7 days, and total outpatient costs were €14,947,976. Vaccination rates were <4 % for children and 37 % for patients aged >60.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal influenza can cause severe outcomes with hospitalizations and excess costs. Especially influenza-infected children are affected by concomitant diseases with higher disease burden. Furthermore, documented vaccination rates are quite low.

Recent Developments in Pediatric Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common acute infectious cause of death in children worldwide. Consequently, research into the epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of pediatric CAP spans the translational research spectrum. Herein, we aim to review the most significant findings reported by investigators focused on pediatric CAP research that has been reported in 2014 and 2015. Our review focuses on several key areas relevant to the clinical management of CAP. First, we will review recent advances in the understanding of CAP epidemiology worldwide, including the role of vaccination in the prevention of pediatric CAP. We also report on the expanding role of existing and emerging diagnostic technologies in CAP classification and management, as well as advances in optimizing antimicrobial use. Finally, we will review CAP management from the policy and future endeavors standpoint, including the influence of clinical practice guidelines on clinician management and patient outcomes, and future potential research directions that are in the early stages of investigation.

The ESPID/ESWI Joint Symposium - A strong vote for universal influenza vaccination in children in Europe

During this year's 33rd annual meeting in Leipzig, Germany, the European Society of Paediatric Infectious Diseases (ESPID) jointly together with the European Scientific Working group on Influenza (ESWI), organized a staged debate on the motion of universal annual immunization of children against influenza as a cost-effective health intervention in Europe. Six invited speakers, all experts in the field of influenza vaccination, who were not necessary confident with their given position of pro or contra, battled each other with short oral presentations to convince the audience to vote for or against the motion.

A Novel Dynamic Model for Health Economic Analysis of Influenza Vaccination in the Elderly

Introduction

New vaccines are being developed to improve the efficacy of seasonal influenza immunization in elderly persons aged ≥65 years. These products require clinical and economic evaluation to aid policy decisions.

Methods

To address this need, a two-part model has been developed, which we have applied to examine the potential clinical and economic impact of vaccinating elderly persons with adjuvanted trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (aTIV) relative to conventional trivalent (TIV) and quadrivalent (QIV) vaccines. We compared outcomes in the US population for (1) aTIV in persons aged ≥65 years and QIV in all other age cohorts; (2) QIV in all cohorts; (3) TIV in all cohorts. Low, average, and high intensity seasons with low, average, and high vaccine match scenarios were compared. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted within each discrete scenario to explore the impact of variation in model inputs on potential outcomes.

Results

Assuming current vaccination coverage rates in the US population with (a) 25% better efficacy of adjuvanted versus non-adjuvanted vaccine against any strain and (b) 35% better efficacy of non-adjuvanted vaccine against matched B versus mismatched B strains, use of aTIV in persons aged ≥65 years and QIV in persons <65 years could reduce influenza cases by 11,166–1,329,200, hospitalizations by 1365–43,674, and deaths by 421–11,320 versus use of QIV in all cohorts. These outcomes are reflected in a corresponding increase in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 3003–94,084. If the prevalence of mismatched influenza B was >54.5% of all circulating strains, use of QIV in all cohorts would offset the clinical benefits of aTIV. Elderly aTIV or QIV vaccination was associated with improved outcomes over non-adjuvanted TIV in many of the scenarios, particularly in low match seasons of any intensity. Total cost savings (including direct and indirect healthcare costs plus productivity impacts) with aTIV in the elderly versus QIV in the whole population ranged from $27 million (low intensity, low match) to $934 million (high intensity, high match). Univariate sensitivity analysis of relative vaccine prices in the average intensity, average match scenario indicated that aTIV could be marginally cost saving relative to QIV at the currently published Medicare price for influenza vaccines offering enhanced efficacy in the elderly. Elderly vaccination with aTIV was associated with a higher overall cost compared with TIV in only two scenarios (low intensity with average or high match); the incremental cost/QALY relative to TIV was $9980 in the average match scenario and $28,800 in the high match scenario.

Conclusions

Vaccination of persons aged ≥65 years with aTIV has the potential to provide clinical and economic benefit relative to QIV and TIV. The new model allows the assessment of various alternative strategies for available influenza vaccines.

Funding

Novartis Vaccines.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s40121-015-0076-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Seasonal influenza vaccination for children in Thailand: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Routine immunization of children has the potential to reduce this mortality through both direct and indirect protection, but has not been adopted by any low- or middle-income countries. We developed a framework to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination policies in developing countries and used it to consider annual vaccination of school- and preschool-aged children with either trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) or trivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Thailand. We also compared these approaches with a policy of expanding TIV coverage in the elderly.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed an age-structured model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of eight vaccination policies parameterized using country-level data from Thailand. For policies using LAIV, we considered five different age groups of children to vaccinate. We adopted a Bayesian evidence-synthesis framework, expressing uncertainty in parameters through probability distributions derived by fitting the model to prospectively collected laboratory-confirmed influenza data from 2005-2009, by meta-analysis of clinical trial data, and by using prior probability distributions derived from literature review and elicitation of expert opinion. We performed sensitivity analyses using alternative assumptions about prior immunity, contact patterns between age groups, the proportion of infections that are symptomatic, cost per unit vaccine, and vaccine effectiveness. Vaccination of children with LAIV was found to be highly cost-effective, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios between about 2,000 and 5,000 international dollars per disability-adjusted life year averted, and was consistently preferred to TIV-based policies. These findings were robust to extensive sensitivity analyses. The optimal age group to vaccinate with LAIV, however, was sensitive both to the willingness to pay for health benefits and to assumptions about contact patterns between age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating school-aged children with LAIV is likely to be cost-effective in Thailand in the short term, though the long-term consequences of such a policy cannot be reliably predicted given current knowledge of influenza epidemiology and immunology. Our work provides a coherent framework that can be used for similar analyses in other low- and middle-income countries.