Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) distribution in the intermountain Western United States and its relationship to fire frequency, seasonality, and ignitions

Cross-scale analysis reveals interacting predictors of annual and perennial cover in Northern Great Basin rangelands

Exotic annual grass invasion is a widespread threat to the integrity of sagebrush ecosystems in Western North America. Although many predictors of annual grass prevalence and native perennial vegetation have been identified, there remains substantial uncertainty about how regional-scale and local-scale predictors interact to determine vegetation heterogeneity, and how associations between vegetation and cattle grazing vary with environmental context. Here, we conducted a regionally extensive, one-season field survey across burned and unburned, grazed, public lands in Oregon and Idaho, with plots stratified by aspect and distance to water within pastures to capture variation in environmental context and grazing intensity. We analyzed regional-scale and local-scale patterns of annual grass, perennial grass, and shrub cover, and examined to what extent plot-level variation was contingent on pasture-level predictions of site favorability. Annual grasses were widespread at burned and unburned sites alike, contrary to assumptions of annual grasses depending on fire, and more common at lower elevations and higher temperatures regionally, as well as on warmer slopes locally. Pasture-level grazing pressure interacted with temperature such that annual grass cover was associated positively with grazing pressure at higher temperatures but associated negatively with grazing pressure at lower temperatures. This suggests that pasture-level temperature and grazing relationships with annual grass abundance are complex and context dependent, although the causality of this relationship deserves further examination. At the plot-level within pastures, annual grass cover did not vary with grazing metrics, but perennial cover did; perennial grasses, for example, had lower cover closer to water sources, but higher cover at higher dung counts within a pasture, suggesting contrasting interpretations of these two grazing proxies. Importantly for predictions of ecosystem response to temperature change, we found that pasture-level and plot-level favorability interacted: perennial grasses had a higher plot-level cover on cooler slopes, and this difference across topography was starkest in pastures that were less favorable for perennial grasses regionally. Understanding the mechanisms behind cross-scale interactions and contingent responses of vegetation to grazing in these increasingly invaded ecosystems will be critical to land management in a changing world.

Variability in weather and site properties affect fuel and fire behavior following fuel treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe

Fuel-treatments targeting shrubs and fire-prone exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are increasingly used to mitigate increased wildfire risks in arid and semiarid environments, and understanding their response to natural factors is needed for effective landscape management. Using field-data collected over four years from fuel-break treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe, we asked 1) how the outcomes of EAG and sagebrush fuel treatments varied with site biophysical properties, climate, and weather, and 2) how predictions of fire behavior using the Fuel Characteristic Classification System fire model related to land-management objectives of maintaining fire behavior expected of low-load, dry-climate grasslands. Generalized linear mixed effect modeling with build-up model selection was used to determine best-fit models, and marginal effects plots to assess responses for each fuel type. EAG cover decreased as antecedent-fall precipitation increased and increased as antecedent-spring temperatures and surface soil clay contents increased. Herbicides targeting EAGs were less effective where pre-treatment EAG cover was >40 % and antecedent spring temperatures were >9.5 °C. Sagebrush cover was inversely related to soil clay content, especially where clay contents were >17 %. Predicted fire behavior exceeded management objectives under 1) average fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >50 % or >26 %, respectively, or 2) extreme fire weather conditions when EAG or sagebrush cover was >10 % or >8 %, respectively. Consideration of the strong effects of natural variability in site properties and antecedent weather can help in justifying, planning and implementing fuel-treatments.

Soil microbiome analysis supports claims of ineffectiveness of Pseudomonas fluorescens D7 as a biocontrol agent of Bromus tectorum

IMPORTANCE

Cheatgrass is one of North America's most problematic invasive species. Invasion by this annual grass alters ecosystem structure and function and has proven very challenging to remove with traditional approaches. Commercially available bioherbicides, like P. fluorescens D7, are applied with the goal of providing lasting control from a single application. However, experimental results suggest that this bioherbicide has limited efficacy under field conditions. Potential explanations for variable efficacy include a failure of this bioherbicide to establish in the soil microbiome. However, to our knowledge, no data exist to support or refute this hypothesis. Here, we use a deep-sequencing approach to better understand the effects of this bioherbicide on the soil microbiome and screen for P. fluorescens at 18 months post-application.

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA

PREMISE

Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures.

METHODS

We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass.

CONCLUSIONS

Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

Living on the edge: Predicting songbird response to management and environmental changes across an ecotone

Effective wildlife management requires robust information regarding population status, habitat requirements, and likely responses to changing resource conditions. Single-species management may inadequately conserve communities and result in undesired effects to non-target species. Thus, management can benefit from understanding habitat relationships for multiple species. Pinyon pine and juniper (Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) are expanding into sagebrush-dominated (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems within North America and mechanical removal of these trees is frequently conducted to restore sagebrush ecosystems and recover Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, pinyon-juniper removal effects on non-target species are poorly understood, and changing pinyon-juniper woodland dynamics, climate, and anthropogenic development may obscure conservation priorities. To better predict responses to changing resource conditions, evaluate non-target effects of pinyon-juniper removal, prioritize species for conservation, and inform species recovery within pinyon-juniper and sagebrush ecosystems, we modeled population trends and density-habitat relationships for four sagebrush-associated, four pinyon-juniper-associated, and three generalist songbird species with respect to these ecosystems. We fit hierarchical population models to point count data collected throughout the western United States from 2008 to 2020. We found regional population changes for 10 of 11 species investigated; 6 of which increased in the highest elevation region of our study. Our models indicate pinyon-juniper removal will benefit Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri), Green-tailed Towhee (Pipilo chlorurus), and Sage Thrasher (Oreoscoptes montanus) densities. Conversely, we predict largest negative effects of pinyon-juniper removal for species occupying early successional pinyon-juniper woodlands: Bewick's Wren (Thryomanes bewickii), Black-throated Gray Warblers (Setophaga nigrescens), Gray Flycatcher (Empidonax wrightii), and Juniper Titmouse (Baeolophus ridgwayi). Our results highlight the importance of considering effects to non-target species before implementing large-scale habitat manipulations. Our modeling framework can help prioritize species and regions for conservation action, infer effects of management interventions and a changing environment on wildlife, and help land managers balance habitat requirements across ecosystems.

Wildfire immediately reduces nest and adult survival of greater sage-grouse

Wildfire events are becoming more frequent and severe on a global scale. Rising temperatures, prolonged drought, and the presence of pyrophytic invasive grasses are contributing to the degradation of native vegetation communities. Within the Great Basin region of the western U.S., increasing wildfire frequency is transforming the ecosystem toward a higher degree of homogeneity, one dominated by invasive annual grasses and declining landscape productivity. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) are a species of conservation concern that rely on large tracts of structurally and functionally diverse sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities. Using a 12-year (2008-2019) telemetry dataset, we documented immediate impacts of wildfire on demographic rates of a population of sage-grouse that were exposed to two large wildfire events (Virginia Mountains Fire Complex-2016; Long Valley Fire-2017) near the border of California and Nevada. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in demographic rates were accounted for using a Before-After Control-Impact Paired Series (BACIPS) study design. Results revealed a 40% reduction in adult survival and a 79% reduction in nest survival within areas impacted by wildfires. Our results indicate that wildfire has strong and immediate impacts to two key life stages of a sagebrush indicator species and underscores the importance of fire suppression and immediate restoration following wildfire events.

A retrospective assessment of fuel break effectiveness for containing rangeland wildfires in the sagebrush biome

Escalated wildfire activity within the western U.S. has widespread societal impacts and long-term consequences for the imperiled sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) biome. Shifts from historical fire regimes and the interplay between frequent disturbance and invasive annual grasses may initiate permanent state transitions as wildfire frequency outpaces sagebrush communities' innate capacity to recover. Therefore, wildfire management is at the core of conservation plans for sagebrush ecosystems, especially critical habitat for species of conservation concern such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse). Fuel breaks help facilitate wildfire suppression by modifying behavior through fuels modification and allowing safe access points for containment by firefighters. The Bureau of Land Management has proposed to roughly double the existing fuel break network in the western U.S., centered on the Great Basin. To our knowledge, no broad-scale examination of fuel break effectiveness or the environmental conditions under which fuel breaks are expected to be most effective has been conducted. We performed a retrospective assessment of probability of fuel break contributing to wildfire containment on recorded wildfire and fuel break interactions from 1985 to 2018 within the western U.S. We characterized environmental, fuels, and weather conditions within 500 m of wildfire contact, and within 5 km of the approaching wildfire. We used a binomial mixed model within a Bayesian framework to identify relationships between these variables and fuel break success. Fuel breaks were least successful in areas classified as having low resilience to disturbance and low resistance to invasion, in areas composed of primarily woody fuels, and when operating in high temperature and low precipitation conditions. Fuel breaks were most effective in areas where fine fuels dominated and in areas that were readily accessible. Maintenance history and fuel break type also contributed to the probability of containment. Overall results indicate a complex and sometimes paradoxical relationship between landscape characteristics that promote wildfire spread and those that impact fuel break effectiveness. Finally, we developed predictive maps of fuel break effectiveness by fuel break type to further elucidate these complex relationships and to inform urgently needed fuel break placement and maintenance priorities across the sagebrush biome.

Preadapted to adapt: underpinnings of adaptive plasticity revealed by the downy brome genome

Bromus tectorum L. is arguably the most successful invasive weed in the world. It has fundamentally altered arid ecosystems of the western United States, where it now found on an excess of 20 million hectares. Invasion success is related to avoidance of abiotic stress and human management. Early flowering is a heritable trait utilized by B. tectorum, enabling the species to temporally monopolize limited resources and outcompete the native plant community. Thus, understanding the genetic underpinning of flowering time is critical for the design of integrated management strategies. To study flowering time traits in B. tectorum, we assembled a chromosome scale reference genome for B. tectorum. To assess the utility of the assembled genome, 121 diverse B. tectorum accessions are phenotyped and subjected to a genome wide association study (GWAS). Candidate genes, representing homologs of genes that have been previously associated with plant height or flowering phenology traits in related species are located near QTLs we identified. This study uses a high-resolution GWAS to identify reproductive phenology genes in a weedy species and represents a considerable step forward in understanding the mechanisms underlying genetic plasticity in one of the most successful invasive weed species.

Estimates of fine fuel litter biomass in the northern Great Basin reveal increases during short fire-free intervals associated with invasive annual grasses

Exotic annual grasses invasion across northern Great Basin rangelands has promoted a grass-fire cycle that threatens the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystem. In this sense, high accumulation rates and persistence of litter from annual species largely increase the amount and continuity of fine fuels. Here, we highlight the potential use and transferability of remote sensing-derived products to estimate litter biomass on sagebrush rangelands in southeastern Oregon, and link fire regime attributes (fire-free period) with litter biomass spatial patterns at the landscape scale. Every June, from 2018 to 2021, we measured litter biomass in 24 field plots (60 m × 60 m). Two remote sensing-derived datasets were used to predict litter biomass measured in the field plots. The first dataset used was the 30-m annual net primary production (NPP) product partitioned into plant functional traits (annual grass, perennial grass, shrub, and tree) from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP). The second dataset included topographic variables (heat load index -HLI- and site exposure index -SEI-) computed from the USGS 30-m National Elevation Dataset. Through a frequentist model averaging approach (FMA), we determined that the NPP of annual and perennial grasses, as well as HLI and SEI, were important predictors of field-measured litter biomass in 2018, with the model featuring a high overall fit (R² = 0.61). Model transferability based on extrapolating the FMA predictive relationships from 2018 to the following years provided similar overall fits (R² ≈ 0.5). The fire-free period had a significant effect on the litter biomass accumulation on rangelands within the study site, with greater litter biomass in areas where the fire-free period was <10 years. Our findings suggest that the proposed remote sensing-derived products could be a key instrument to equip rangeland managers with additional information towards fuel management, fire management, and restoration efforts.

Rethinking the focus on forest fires in federal wildland fire management: Landscape patterns and trends of non-forest and forest burned area

For most of the 20th century and beyond, national wildland fire policies concerning fire suppression and fuels management have primarily focused on forested lands. Using summary statistics and landscape metrics, wildfire spatial patterns and trends for non-forest and forest burned area over the past two decades were examined across the U.S, and federal agency jurisdictions. This study found that wildfires burned more area of non-forest lands than forest lands at the scale of the conterminous and western U.S. and the Department of Interior (DOI). In an agency comparison, 74% of DOI burned area occurred on non-forest lands and 78% of U.S. Forest Service burned area occurred on forested lands. Landscape metrics revealed key differences between forest and non-forest fire patterns and trends in total burned area, burned patch size, distribution, and aggregation over time across the western U.S. Opposite fire patterns emerged between non-forest and forest burns when analyzed at the scale of federal agency jurisdictions. In addition, a fire regime departure analysis comparing current large fire probability with historic fire trends identified certain vegetation types and locations experiencing more fire than historically. These patterns were especially pronounced for cold desert shrublands, such as sagebrush where increases in annual area burned, and fire frequency, size, and juxtaposition have resulted in substantial losses over a twenty-year period. The emerging non-forest fire patterns are primarily due to the rapid expansion of non-native invasive grasses that increase fuel connectivity and fire spread. These invasions promote uncharacteristic frequent fire and loss of native ecosystems at large-scales, accelerating the need to place greater focus on managing invasive species in wildland fire management. Results can be used to inform wildfire management and policy aimed at reducing uncharacteristic wildfire processes and patterns for both non-forest and forest ecosystems as well as identify differing management strategies needed to address the unique wildfire issues each federal agency faces.

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database (n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Anthropogenic fire patterns affect niche breadth and niche overlap in sympatric songbird species

The severity of wildfires increases globally, and return intervals decrease. Fires can benefit biodiversity, as post-burn early successional stages provide diverse habitats and niches for many species. How fire disturbance affects niche use and niche overlap of species is poorly understood so far. We studied the effect of anthropogenic fire on breeding habitat use, niche breadth and niche overlap of five sympatric bunting species breeding in wetlands of the Amur River floodplain (Russian Far East). Fire frequency, measured as the time an area burnt in the period 2000 to 2017, was mapped from Landsat imagery and related to the presence or absence of the species. Niche breadth and niche overlap were calculated separately for occurrences in burned (within the study year) and unburned patches. Fire frequency characterized differences in niche use among the species, but the probability of presence was not affected by recent fire in four of five species. Niche breadth was significantly lower in recently burned patches, but we found no increase in niche overlap between species after fire. Instead, the studied species seemed to occupy similar patches before and after fire, possibly because of a high site fidelity. Our results clearly show that fire frequency is a major determinant for the niche separation in the five studied species, while recent fire does not affect niche overlap.

Targeting Sagebrush (Artemisia Spp.) Restoration Following Wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus Urophasianus) Nest Selection and Survival Models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Statistical considerations of nonrandom treatment applications reveal region-wide benefits of widespread post-fire restoration action

Accurate predictions of ecological restoration outcomes are needed across the increasingly large landscapes requiring treatment following disturbances. However, observational studies often fail to account for nonrandom treatment application, which can result in invalid inference. Examining a spatiotemporally extensive management treatment involving post-fire seeding of declining sagebrush shrubs across semiarid areas of the western USA over two decades, we quantify drivers and consequences of selection biases in restoration using remotely sensed data. From following more than 1,500 wildfires, we find treatments were disproportionately applied in more stressful, degraded ecological conditions. Failure to incorporate unmeasured drivers of treatment allocation led to the conclusion that costly, widespread seedings were unsuccessful; however, after considering sources of bias, restoration positively affected sagebrush recovery. Treatment effects varied with climate, indicating prioritization criteria for interventions. Our findings revise the perspective that post-fire sagebrush seedings have been broadly unsuccessful and demonstrate how selection biases can pose substantive inferential hazards in observational studies of restoration efficacy and the development of restoration theory.

Greater sage‐grouse respond positively to intensive post‐fire restoration treatments

Habitat loss is the most prevalent threat to biodiversity in North America. One of the most threatened landscapes in the United States is the sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystem, much of which has been fragmented or converted to non‐native grasslands via the cheatgrass‐fire cycle. Like many sagebrush obligates, greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) depend upon sagebrush for food and cover and are affected by changes to this ecosystem. We investigated habitat selection by 28 male greater sage‐grouse during each of 3 years after a 113,000‐ha wildfire in a sagebrush steppe ecosystem in Idaho and Oregon. During the study period, seeding and herbicide treatments were applied for habitat restoration. We evaluated sage‐grouse responses to vegetation and post‐fire restoration treatments. Throughout the 3 years post‐fire, sage‐grouse avoided areas with high exotic annual grass cover but selected strongly for recovering sagebrush and moderately strongly for perennial grasses. By the third year post‐fire, they preferred high‐density sagebrush, especially in winter when sagebrush is the primary component of the sage‐grouse diet. Sage‐grouse preferred forb habitat immediately post‐fire, especially in summer, but this selection preference was less strong in later years. They also selected areas that were intensively treated with herbicide and seeded with sagebrush, grasses, and forbs, although these responses varied with time since treatment. Wildfire can have severe consequences for sagebrush‐obligate species due to loss of large sagebrush plants used for food and for protection from predators and thermal extremes. Our results show that management efforts, including herbicide application and seeding of plants, directed at controlling exotic annual grasses after a wildfire can positively affect habitat selection by sage‐grouse.

Multi-Species Inference of Exotic Annual and Native Perennial Grasses in Rangelands of the Western United States Using Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

The invasion of exotic annual grass (EAG), e.g., cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), into rangeland ecosystems of the western United States is a broad-scale problem that affects wildlife habitats, increases wildfire frequency, and adds to land management costs. However, identifying individual species of EAG abundance from remote sensing, particularly at early stages of invasion or growth, can be problematic because of overlapping controls and similar phenological characteristics among native and other exotic vegetation. Subsequently, refining and developing tools capable of quantifying the abundance and phenology of annual and perennial grass species would be beneficial to help inform conservation and management efforts at local to regional scales. Here, we deploy an enhanced version of the U.S. Geological Survey Rangeland Exotic Plant Monitoring System to develop timely and accurate maps of annual (2016–2020) and intra-annual (May 2021 and July 2021) abundances of exotic annual and perennial grass species throughout the rangelands of the western United States. This monitoring system leverages field observations and remote-sensing data with artificial intelligence/machine learning to rapidly produce annual and early season estimates of species abundances at a 30-m spatial resolution. We introduce a fully automated and multi-task deep-learning framework to simultaneously predict and generate weekly, near-seamless composites of Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 spectral data. These data, along with auxiliary datasets and time series metrics, are incorporated into an ensemble of independent XGBoost models. This study demonstrates that inclusion of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Normalized Difference Wetness Index time-series data generated from our deep-learning framework enables near real-time and accurate mapping of EAG (Median Absolute Error (MdAE): 3.22, 2.72, and 0.02; and correlation coefficient (r): 0.82, 0.81, and 0.73; respectively for EAG, cheatgrass, and medusahead) and native perennial grass abundance (MdAE: 2.51, r:0.72 for Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda)). Our approach and the resulting data provide insights into rangeland grass dynamics, which will be useful for applications, such as fire and drought monitoring, habitat suitability mapping, as well as land-cover and land-change modelling. Spatially explicit, timely, and accurate species-specific abundance datasets provide invaluable information to land managers.

Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies

The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.

Interannual climate variability mediates changes in carbon and nitrogen pools caused by annual grass invasion in a semiarid shrubland

Exotic plant invasions alter ecosystem properties and threaten ecosystem functions globally. Interannual climate variability (ICV) influences both plant community composition (PCC) and soil properties, and interactions between ICV and PCC may influence nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) pools. We asked how ICV and non-native annual grass invasion covary to influence soil and plant N and C in a semiarid shrubland undergoing widespread ecosystem transformation due to invasions and altered fire regimes. We sampled four progressive stages of annual grass invasion at 20 sites across a large (25,000 km² ) landscape for plant community composition, plant tissue N and C, and soil total N and C in 2013 and 2016, which followed 2 years of dry and wet conditions, respectively. Multivariate analyses and ANOVAs showed that in invasion stages where native shrub and perennial grass and forb communities were replaced by annual grass-dominated communities, the ecosystem lost more soil N and C in wet years. Path analysis showed that high water availability led to higher herbaceous cover in all invasion stages. In stages with native shrubs and perennial grasses, higher perennial grass cover was associated with increased soil C and N, while in annual-dominated stages, higher annual grass cover was associated with losses of soil C and N. Also, soil total C and C:N ratios were more homogeneous in annual-dominated invasion stages as indicated by within-site standard deviations. Loss of native shrubs and perennial grasses and forbs coupled with annual grass invasion may lead to long-term declines in soil N and C and hamper restoration efforts. Restoration strategies that use innovative techniques and novel species to address increasing temperatures and ICV and emphasize maintaining plant community structure-shrubs, grasses, and forbs-will allow sagebrush ecosystems to maintain C sequestration, soil fertility, and soil heterogeneity.

Changes in hunting season regulations (1870s-2019) reduce harvest exposure on greater and Gunnison sage-grouse

Hunter harvest is a potential factor contributing to population declines of sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.). As a result, wildlife agencies throughout western North America have set increasingly more conservative harvest regulations over the past 25 years to reduce or eliminate hunter success and concomitant numbers of harvested greater (C. urophasianus) and Gunnison (C. minimus) sage-grouse. Sage-grouse hunting has varied widely over time and space, which has made a comprehensive summary of hunting management challenging. We compiled data on harvest regulations among 11 western U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces from 1870–2019 to create a timeline representative of hunting regulations. We compared annual harvest boundaries and area-weighted average hunting regulations, 1995–2018, relative to administrative boundaries and areas of high probability of sage-grouse occupation. We also summarized estimated numbers of birds harvested and hunters afield, 1995–2018, across both species’ ranges. From 1995–2018, there was a 30% reduction in administrative harvest boundaries across the greater sage-grouse range compared to a 16.6% reduction in area open to harvest within 8 km from active leks. Temporary closures occurred in response to wildfires, disease outbreaks, low population numbers, and two research projects; whereas, permanent closures primarily occurred in small populations and areas on the periphery of the species distribution. Similarly, area-weighted possession limits and season length for greater sage-grouse decreased 52.6% and 61.0%, respectively, while season start date stayed relatively stable (mean start date ~259 [mid-September]). In contrast, hunting of the now federally-threatened Gunnison sage-grouse ended after 1999. While restrictions in harvest regulations were large in area, closures near areas of high greater sage-grouse occupancy were relatively smaller with the same trend for Gunnison sage-grouse until hunting ceased. For greater sage-grouse, most states reduced bag and possession limits and appeared to adhere to recommendations for later and shorter hunting seasons, reducing potential for additive mortality.

Streetlights positively affect the presence of an invasive grass species

Anthropogenic disturbances associated with urban ecosystems can create favorable conditions for populations of some invasive plant species. Light pollution is one of these disturbances, but how it affects the growth and establishment of invasive plant populations is unknown. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is a problematic invasive species where it has displaced native grassland communities in the United States, but to our knowledge, there have been no studies of the ecological factors that affect cheatgrass presence in urban ecosystems. We conducted field surveys in urban alleys in Denver, Colorado, to compare the presence of cheatgrass at sites with and without artificial light at night (hereafter artificial light) from streetlights. These streetlights are mounted on utility poles, which cause ground disturbance when installed in alleys; we were able to test the independent effect of poles on cheatgrass establishment because not all poles have streetlights on them. We found that cheatgrass was positively associated with the presence of streetlights and to a lesser extent poles. In addition to cheatgrass, we also found that other plants were positively associated with the presence of both poles and streetlights. Our results suggest that artificial light may benefit the occurrence of cheatgrass and other plant species in urban settings. While invasive populations of cheatgrass in wild habitats attract the most attention from managers, we suggest more consideration for this grass in urban environments where its growth and establishment benefit from anthropogenic changes.

Living with exotic annual grasses in the sagebrush ecosystem

Exotic annual grasses dominate millions of hectares and increase fire frequency in the sagebrush ecosystem of North America. This devastating invasion is so costly and challenging to revegetate with perennial vegetation that restoration efforts need to be prioritized and strategically implemented. Management needs to break the annual grass-fire cycle and prevent invasion of new areas, while research is needed to improve restoration success. Under current land management and climate regimes, extensive areas will remain annual grasslands, because of their expansiveness and the low probability of transition to perennial dominance. We propose referring to these communities as Intermountain West Annual Grasslands, recognizing that they are a stable state and require different management goals and objectives than perennial-dominated systems. We need to learn to live with annual grasslands, reducing their costs and increasing benefits derived from them, at the same time maintaining landscape-level plant diversity that could allow transition to perennial dominance under future scenarios. To accomplish this task, we propose a framework and research to improve our ability to live with exotic annual grasses in the sagebrush biome.

Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert

The extent and frequency of fire has increased in many arid systems over the last century, with a large proportion of area in some regions undergoing transitions to novel conditions. Portions of the Mojave Desert in southwestern North America have undergone such transitions, most often from woody to herbaceous-dominated systems. These transitions have often been attributed to the proliferation of invasive annual grasses that promote more frequent fire, but recent evidence indicates that transitions can also occur independent of fire frequency if burn severity is high. In addition, high probability of ignition (i.e., potentially high fire frequency) and high burn severity may not always be geographically related. Therefore, our goals were to: (1) map potential burn severity, fire frequency, and probability of ignition across the Mojave; and, (2) evaluate spatial association among predicted burn severity, fire frequency and probability of ignition. We first mapped perimeters of 250 wildfires &gt; 405 ha that occurred from 1972 to 2010, then extracted data on fire frequency (number of times burned from 1972 to 2010), burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio), and 15 predictor variables representing physiography, climate, ignition, and vegetation. Maximum entropy was used to predict probability of ignition and Random Forest models were used to predict dNBR and fire frequency. Areas with high burn severity and high ignition probability had opposite spatial trends; areas with high burn severity were predicted to predominantly be in the northwest part of the region whereas areas with high ignition probability were predicted to be in the northeast. The models indicate the existence of a number of spatially structured but temporally dynamic fire regimes throughout the Mojave Desert. Two prevalent and ecologically significant regimes include one with frequent fires of low to moderate severity and another with infrequent fire of high severity. Areas with high fire frequency are currently limited in extent (&lt;1% total area). However, cover of invasive grasses can remain high decades after a burn of high or moderate severity, so grass-fire cycles could develop in areas where there may be expectations of infrequent fire as well as those with relatively high fire frequency.

Short- and long-term effects of fire and vegetation cover on four lizard species in Amazonian savannas

Ecological succession in tropical savannas is limited by seasonal fire, which affects habitat quality. Although fire may cause negligible or positive effects on animals occupying savannas, most short-term studies (months to a few years) are based on a single temporal sampling snapshot, and long-term studies (decades) are rare. We sampled four lizard species (Rainbow Whiptail, Cnemidophorus lemniscatus (Linnaeus, 1758); Striped Whiptail, Kentropyx striata (Daudin, 1802); Grass Anole, Norops auratus Duméril and Bibron, 1837 = Anolis auratus Daudin, 1802; Amazon Racerunner, Ameiva ameiva (Linnaeus, 1758)) in Amazonian savannas to test the effects of fire and vegetation cover on lizard densities at two temporal scales. In the short term, we use three sampling snapshots to test the effects of fire and vegetation cover on estimated lizard densities over the subsequent 1–5 years. In the long term, we test the effects of fire and changes in vegetation cover over 21 years on current lizard density differences. In the short term, species responses were usually consistent with foraging and thermoregulation modes. However, the results were not consistent among species and years, although the variances in species density explained by year as a random factor were generally low. In the long term, the main effects of fire and vegetation cover show that lizard densities may change spatially, but not necessarily temporarily. Wildfire is a natural resource of savannas and apparently have little impact on resident lizards of that ecosystem.

Priority effects: How the order of arrival of an invasive grass, Bromus tectorum, alters productivity and plant community structure when grown with native grass species

Theories and models attempt to explain how and why particular plant species grow together at particular sites or why invasive exotic species dominate plant communities. As local climates change and human-use degrades and disturbs ecosystems, a better understanding of how plant communities assemble is pertinent, particularly when restoring grassland ecosystems that are frequently disturbed. One such community assembly theory is priority effects, which suggests that arrival order of species into a community alters plant-plant interactions and community assembly. Theoretically, priority effects can have lasting effects on ecosystems and will likely be altered as the risk of invasion by exotic species increases. It is difficult to predict how and when priority effects occur, as experimental reconstruction of arrival order is often difficult in adequate detail. As a result, limited experimental studies have explored priority effects on plant community assembly and plant invasions. To determine if and how priority effects affect the success of invasive species, we conducted a greenhouse study exploring how the arrival order of an invasive grass, Bromus tectorum, affects productivity and community composition when grown with native grasses. We found evidence for priority effects, as productivity was positively related to dominance of B. tectorum and was greater the earlier B. tectorum arrived. This suggests that priority effects could be important for plant communities as the early arrival of an invasive species drastically impacted the productivity and biodiversity of our system at the early establishment stages of plant community development.

Using native grass seeding and targeted spring grazing to reduce low-level Bromus tectorum invasion on the Colorado Plateau

Reducing invasive species abundance near the leading edge of invasions is important for maintaining diverse, high-functioning ecosystems, but it can be hard to remove invasives present at low levels within desirable plant communities. Focusing on an invasive annual grass, Bromus tectorum, near the edge of its range in the southern Colorado Plateau, we used an observational study to ask what plant community components were associated with lower levels of B. tectorum, and a manipulative experiment to ask if targeted spring grazing or seeding native competitors were effective for reversing low-level invasion. The observational study found that higher C3 perennial grass cover and shrub cover were associated with lower B. tectorum abundance, and adult Poa fendleriana and Pascopyrum smithii plants had the fewest B. tectorum individuals within 50 cm. Our manipulative experiment used a randomized, hierarchical design to test the relative effectiveness of seeding native perennial grasses using different spatial planting arrangements, seeding rates, seed enhancements, and targeted spring grazing. Two years after seeding, seeded species establishment was 36% greater in high seed rate than unseeded plots, and high rate plots also had lower B. tectorum cover. One season after targeted spring grazing (a single, 2-week spring-grazing treatment 17 months post-seeding), grazed paddocks displayed trends towards higher seeded species densities and lower B. tectorum biomass in certain seeding treatments, compared to ungrazed paddocks. Results suggest high rate native grass seedings may be effective and short-duration spring grazing should be further evaluated as potential tools for preventing ecosystem conversion along invasion fronts.

Direct and indirect effects of a keystone engineer on a shrubland-prairie food web

Keystone engineers are critical drivers of biodiversity throughout ecosystems worldwide. Within the North American Great Plains, the black-tailed prairie dog is an imperiled ecosystem engineer and keystone species with well-documented impacts on the flora and fauna of rangeland systems. However, because this species affects ecosystem structure and function in myriad ways (i.e., as a consumer, a prey resource, and a disturbance vector), it is unclear which effects are most impactful for any given prairie dog associate. We applied structural equation models (SEM) to disentangle direct and indirect effects of prairie dogs on multiple trophic levels (vegetation, arthropods, and birds) in the Thunder Basin National Grassland. Arthropods did not show any direct response to prairie dog occupation, but multiple bird species and vegetation parameters were directly affected. Surprisingly, the direct impact of prairie dogs on colony-associated avifauna (Horned Lark [Eremophila alpestris] and Mountain Plover [Charadrius montanus]) had greater support than a mediated effect via vegetation structure, indicating that prairie dog disturbance may be greater than the sum of its parts in terms of impacts on localized vegetation structure. Overall, our models point to a combination of direct and indirect impacts of prairie dogs on associated vegetation, arthropods, and avifauna. The variation in these impacts highlights the importance of examining the various impacts of keystone engineers, as well as highlighting the diverse ways that black-tailed prairie dogs are critical for the conservation of associated species.

Long-Term Effectiveness of Tree Removal to Re-Establish Sagebrush Steppe Vegetation and Associated Spatial Patterns in Surface Conditions and Soil Hydrologic Properties

Pinyon (Pinus spp.) and juniper (Juniperus spp.) woodland encroachment into sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe communities throughout western North America has substantially altered the vegetation structure and hydrologic function of one of the most ecologically important rangeland ecosystems in the world. Various pinyon and juniper tree removal practices are employed to re-establish sagebrush steppe vegetation and an associated resource-conserving ecohydrologic function. The effectiveness of these practices is highly variable owing to the vast domain in which woodland encroachment occurs, climate fluctuations, differences in treatment applications, and myriads of pre-treatment conditions and post-treatment land uses. This study evaluated the long-term (13 years post-treatment) effectiveness of prescribed fire and mechanical tree removal to re-establish sagebrush steppe vegetation and associated spatial patterns in ground surface conditions and soil hydrologic properties of two woodland-encroached sites. Specifically, we assessed the effects of tree removal on: (1) vegetation and ground cover at the hillslope scale (990 m2 plots) and (2) associated spatial patterns in point-scale ground surface conditions and soil hydrologic properties along transects extending from tree bases and into the intercanopy areas between trees. Both sites were in mid to late stages of woodland encroachment with extensive bare conditions (~60–80% bare ground) throughout a degraded intercanopy area (~75% of the domain) surrounding tree islands (~25% of domain, subcanopy areas). All treatments effectively removed mature tree cover and increased hillslope vegetation. Enhanced herbaceous cover (4–15-fold increases) in burned areas reduced bare interspace (bare area between plants) by at least 4-fold and improved intercanopy hydraulic conductivity (> than 2-fold) and overall ecohydrologic function. Mechanical treatments retained or increased sagebrush and generally increased the intercanopy herbaceous vegetation. Intercanopy ground surface conditions and soil hydrologic properties in mechanical treatments were generally similar to those in burned areas but were also statistically similar to the same measures in untreated areas in most cases. This suggests that vegetation and ground surface conditions in mechanical treatments are trending toward a significantly improved hydrologic function over time. Treatments had limited impact on soil hydrologic properties within subcanopy areas; however, burning did reduce the soil water repellency strength and the occurrence of strong soil water repellency underneath trees by three- to four-fold. Overall, the treatments over a 13-year period enhanced the vegetation, ground surface conditions, and soil hydrologic properties that promote infiltration and limit runoff generation for intercanopy areas representing ~75% of the area at the sites. However, ecological tradeoffs in treatment alternatives were evident. The variations in woodland responses across sites, treatments, and measurement scales in this long-term study illustrate the complexity in predicting vegetation and hydrologic responses to tree removal on woodland-encroached sagebrush sites and underpin the need and value of multi-scale long-term studies.

Long-Term Seeding Outcomes in Slash Piles and Skid Trails after Conifer Removal

Conifer removal in interior woodland ecosystems of the western US is a common management treatment used to decrease fire hazard and shift woodlands to more historical states. Woody material is frequently removed by skidding material off site and via slash pile burning. Assessing the long-term outcomes of seeding treatments after such ground disturbing activities is critical for informing future management and treatment strategies. Using two designed experiments from a central Oregon juniper woodland, we resampled slash piles and skid trails 8 years after seeding. Our objectives were to assess the long-term vegetation response to conifer removal, ground disturbance, and seeding source (cultivar and local) in slash piles and skid trails. We found that seeded species persisted in the long term, but abundance patterns depended on the species, seed source, and the type of disturbance. In general, there were more robust patterns of persistence after pile burning compared to skid trails. Seeding also suppressed exotic grass cover in the long term, particularly for the local seed source. However, the invasion levels we report are still problematic and may have impacts on biodiversity, forage and fire behavior. Our short-term results were not predictive of longer-term outcomes, but short- and long-term patterns were somewhat predictable based on species life history traits and ecological succession. The use of a mix of species with different life history traits may contribute to seeding success in terms of exotic grass suppression. Lastly, our results suggest that locally adapted seed sources may perform as well or better compared to cultivars. However, more aggressive weed treatments before and after conifer removal activities and wider seeding application may be needed to effectively treat exotic grass populations.

Using a Vegetation Model and Stakeholder Input to Assess the Climate Change Vulnerability of Tribally Important Ecosystem Services

We demonstrate a generalizable approach for assessing climate change effects on tribally important ecosystem goods and services. Indigenous peoples may be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because they rely on ecosystem goods and services, such as traditional foods, hunting, timber production, nontimber forest resources, and cultural resources. However, there are few assessments that have examined the potential impact of climate change on these goods and services and even less that examine ecological, socio-economic, and cultural resources in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Our approach uses four basic steps: (1) identify 78 tribally important ecosystem services (species and resources), (2) relate those ecosystem services with biologically relevant vegetation projections from a dynamic global vegetation model, (3) identify appropriate timeframes and future climate scenarios, and (4) assess future changes for vegetation types and ecosystem services. We then highlight how model uncertainty can be explored to better inform resilience building and adaptation planning. We found that more than half of the species and resources analyzed may be vulnerable to climate change due to loss of potential habitat, including aridland species and grazing quality. We further highlight our findings for tribally important species, huckleberries (genus Vaccinium) and bitterbrush (Purshia tridentate (Pursh) DC.), and show how this information can be applied to help inform resource management and adaptation planning. We have demonstrated a generalizable approach that identified tribally important ecosystem services and related them with biologically relevant vegetation projections from a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Although our assessment is focused in the Pacific Northwest, our approach can be applied in other regions for which model data is available. We recognize that there is some inherent uncertainty associated with using model output for future scenario planning; however, if that uncertainty is addressed and applied as demonstrated by our approach, it then can be explored to help inform resource management and adaptation planning.

A modeling workflow that balances automation and human intervention to inform invasive plant management decisions at multiple spatial scales

Predictions of habitat suitability for invasive plant species can guide risk assessments at regional and national scales and inform early detection and rapid-response strategies at local scales. We present a general approach to invasive species modeling and mapping that meets objectives at multiple scales. Our methodology is designed to balance trade-offs between developing highly customized models for few species versus fitting non-specific and generic models for numerous species. We developed a national library of environmental variables known to physiologically limit plant distributions and relied on human input based on natural history knowledge to further narrow the variable set for each species before developing habitat suitability models. To ensure efficiency, we used largely automated modeling approaches and human input only at key junctures. We explore and present uncertainty by using two alternative sources of background samples, including five statistical algorithms, and constructing model ensembles. We demonstrate the use and efficiency of the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling [SAHM 2.1.2], a package in VisTrails, which performs the majority of the modeling analyses. Our workflow includes solicitation of expert feedback on model outputs such as spatial prediction results and variable response curves, and iterative improvement based on new data availability and directed field validation of initial model results. We highlight the utility of the models for decision-making at regional and local scales with case studies of two plant species that invade natural areas: fountain grass (Pennisetum setaceum) and goutweed (Aegopodium podagraria). By balancing model automation with human intervention, we can efficiently provide land managers with mapped predicted distributions for multiple invasive species to inform decisions across spatial scales.

Grazing disturbance promotes exotic annual grasses by degrading soil biocrust communities

Exotic invasive plants threaten ecosystem integrity, and their success depends on a combination of abiotic factors, disturbances, and interactions with existing communities. In dryland ecosystems, soil biocrusts (communities of lichens, bryophytes, and microorganisms) can limit favorable microsites needed for invasive species establishment, but the relative importance of biocrusts for landscape-scale invasion patterns remains poorly understood. We examine effects of livestock grazing in habitats at high risk for invasion to test the hypothesis that disturbance indirectly favors exotic annual grasses by reducing biocrust cover. We present some of the first evidence that biocrusts increase site resistance to invasion at a landscape scale and mediate the effects of disturbance. Biocrust species richness, which is reduced by livestock grazing, also appears to promote native perennial grasses. Short mosses, as a functional group, appear to be particularly valuable for preventing invasion by exotic annual grasses. Our study suggests that maintaining biocrust communities with high cover, species richness, and cover of short mosses can increase resistance to invasion. These results highlight the potential of soil surface communities to mediate invasion dynamics and suggest promising avenues for restoration in dryland ecosystems.