Quantitative genetics of growth and cryptic evolution of body size in an island population

Heritability and developmental plasticity of growth in an oviparous lizard

Selective processes act on phenotypic variation although the evolutionary potential of a trait relies on the underlying heritable variation. Developmental plasticity is an important source of phenotypic variation, but it can also promote changes in genetic variation, yet we have a limited understanding of how they are both impacted. Here, we quantified the influence of developmental temperature on growth in delicate skinks (Lampropholis delicata) and partitioned total phenotypic variance using an animal model fitted with a genomic relatedness matrix. We measured mass for 261 individuals (nhot = 125, ncold = 136) over 16 months (nobservations = 3002) and estimated heritability and maternal effects over time. Our results show that lizards reared in cold developmental temperatures had consistently higher mass across development compared to lizards that were reared in hot developmental temperatures. However, developmental temperature did not impact the rate of growth. On average, additive genetic variance, maternal effects and heritability were higher in the hot developmental temperature treatment; however, these differences were not statistically significant. Heritability increased with age, whereas maternal effects decreased upon hatching but increased again at a later age, which could be driven by social competition or intrinsic changes in the expression of variation as an individual's growth. Our work suggests that the evolutionary potential of growth is complex, age-dependent and not overtly affected by extremes in natural nest temperatures.

Large offspring have enhanced lifetime reproductive success: Long-term carry-over effects of weaning size in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus)

An individual's size in early stages of life may be an important source of individual variation in lifetime reproductive performance, as size effects on ontogenetic development can have cascading physiological and behavioral consequences throughout life. Here, we explored how size-at-young influences subsequent reproductive performance in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) using repeated encounter and reproductive data on a marked sample of 363 females that were measured for length after weaning, at ~4 weeks of age, and eventually recruited to the Sable Island breeding colony. Two reproductive traits were considered: provisioning performance (mass of weaned offspring), modeled using linear mixed effects models; and reproductive frequency (rate at which a female returns to breed), modeled using mixed effects multistate mark-recapture models. Mothers with the longest weaning lengths produced pups 8 kg heavier and were 20% more likely to breed in a given year than mothers with the shortest lengths. Correlation in body lengths between weaning and adult life stages, however, is weak: Longer pups do not grow to be longer than average adults. Thus, covariation between weaning length and future reproductive performance appears to be a carry-over effect, where the size advantages afforded in early juvenile stages may allow enhanced long-term performance in adulthood.

The impact of SNP density on quantitative genetic analyses of body size traits in a wild population of Soay sheep

Understanding the genetic architecture underpinning quantitative traits in wild populations is pivotal to understanding the processes behind trait evolution. The 'animal model' is a popular method for estimating quantitative genetic parameters such as heritability and genetic correlation and involves fitting an estimate of relatedness between individuals in the study population. Genotypes at genome-wide markers can be used to estimate relatedness; however, relatedness estimates vary with marker density, potentially affecting results. Increasing density of markers is also expected to increase the power to detect quantitative trait loci (QTL). In order to understand how the density of genetic markers affects the results of quantitative genetic analyses, we estimated heritability and performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on five body size traits in an unmanaged population of Soay sheep using two different SNP densities: a dataset of 37,037 genotyped SNPs and an imputed dataset of 417,373 SNPs. Heritability estimates did not differ between the two SNP densities, but the high-density imputed SNP dataset revealed four new SNP-trait associations that were not found with the lower density dataset, as well as confirming all previously-found QTL. We also demonstrated that fitting fixed and random effects in the same step as performing GWAS is a more powerful approach than pre-correcting for covariates in a separate model.

Genomic prediction in the wild: A case study in Soay sheep

Genomic prediction, the technique whereby an individual's genetic component of their phenotype is estimated from its genome, has revolutionised animal and plant breeding and medical genetics. However, despite being first introduced nearly two decades ago, it has hardly been adopted by the evolutionary genetics community studying wild organisms. Here, genomic prediction is performed on eight traits in a wild population of Soay sheep. The population has been the focus of a >30 year evolutionary ecology study and there is already considerable understanding of the genetic architecture of the focal Mendelian and quantitative traits. We show that the accuracy of genomic prediction is high for all traits, but especially those with loci of large effect segregating. Five different methods are compared, and the two methods that can accommodate zero-effect and large-effect loci in the same model tend to perform best. If the accuracy of genomic prediction is similar in other wild populations, then there is a real opportunity for pedigree-free molecular quantitative genetics research to be enabled in many more wild populations; currently the literature is dominated by studies that have required decades of field data collection to generate sufficiently deep pedigrees. Finally, some of the potential applications of genomic prediction in wild populations are discussed.

Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Using genomic prediction to detect microevolutionary change of a quantitative trait

Detecting microevolutionary responses to natural selection by observing temporal changes in individual breeding values is challenging. The collection of suitable datasets can take many years and disentangling the contributions of the environment and genetics to phenotypic change is not trivial. Furthermore, pedigree-based methods of obtaining individual breeding values have known biases. Here, we apply a genomic prediction approach to estimate breeding values of adult weight in a 35-year dataset of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Comparisons are made with a traditional pedigree-based approach. During the study period, adult body weight decreased, but the underlying genetic component of body weight increased, at a rate that is unlikely to be attributable to genetic drift. Thus cryptic microevolution of greater adult body weight has probably occurred. Genomic and pedigree-based approaches gave largely consistent results. Thus, using genomic prediction to study microevolution in wild populations can remove the requirement for pedigree data, potentially opening up new study systems for similar research.

Associations between MHC class II variation and phenotypic traits in a free-living sheep population

Pathogen-mediated selection (PMS) is thought to maintain the high level of allelic diversity observed in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II genes. A comprehensive way to demonstrate contemporary selection is to examine associations between MHC variation and individual fitness. As individual fitness is hard to measure, many studies examine associations between MHC variation and phenotypic traits, including direct or indirect measures of adaptive immunity thought to contribute to fitness. Here, we tested associations between MHC class II variation and five phenotypic traits measured in free-living sheep captured in August: weight, strongyle faecal egg count, and plasma IgA, IgE and IgG immunoglobulin titres against the gastrointestinal nematode parasite Teladorsagia circumcincta. We found no association between MHC class II variation and weight or strongyle faecal egg count. We did, however, find associations between MHC class II variation and immunoglobulin levels which varied with isotype, age and sex. Our results suggest associations between MHC and phenotypic traits are more likely to be found for traits more closely associated with pathogen defence than integrative traits such as bodyweight and highlight the association between MHC variation and antibodies in wild populations.

The utility of genomic prediction models in evolutionary genetics

Variation in complex traits is the result of contributions from many loci of small effect. Based on this principle, genomic prediction methods are used to make predictions of breeding value for an individual using genome-wide molecular markers. In breeding, genomic prediction models have been used in plant and animal breeding for almost two decades to increase rates of genetic improvement and reduce the length of artificial selection experiments. However, evolutionary genomics studies have been slow to incorporate this technique to select individuals for breeding in a conservation context or to learn more about the genetic architecture of traits, the genetic value of missing individuals or microevolution of breeding values. Here, we outline the utility of genomic prediction and provide an overview of the methodology. We highlight opportunities to apply genomic prediction in evolutionary genetics of wild populations and the best practices when using these methods on field-collected phenotypes.

Polygenic adaptation of rosette growth in Arabidopsis thaliana

The rate at which plants grow is a major functional trait in plant ecology. However, little is known about its evolution in natural populations. Here, we investigate evolutionary and environmental factors shaping variation in the growth rate of Arabidopsis thaliana. We used plant diameter as a proxy to monitor plant growth over time in environments that mimicked latitudinal differences in the intensity of natural light radiation, across a set of 278 genotypes sampled within four broad regions, including an outgroup set of genotypes from China. A field experiment conducted under natural conditions confirmed the ecological relevance of the observed variation. All genotypes markedly expanded their rosette diameter when the light supply was decreased, demonstrating that environmental plasticity is a predominant source of variation to adapt plant size to prevailing light conditions. Yet, we detected significant levels of genetic variation both in growth rate and growth plasticity. Genome-wide association studies revealed that only 2 single nucleotide polymorphisms associate with genetic variation for growth above Bonferroni confidence levels. However, marginally associated variants were significantly enriched among genes with an annotated role in growth and stress reactions. Polygenic scores computed from marginally associated variants confirmed the polygenic basis of growth variation. For both light regimes, phenotypic divergence between the most distantly related population (China) and the various regions in Europe is smaller than the variation observed within Europe, indicating that the evolution of growth rate is likely to be constrained by stabilizing selection. We observed that Spanish genotypes, however, reach a significantly larger size than Northern European genotypes. Tests of adaptive divergence and analysis of the individual burden of deleterious mutations reveal that adaptive processes have played a more important role in shaping regional differences in rosette growth than maladaptive evolution.

The rate at which plants grow is a major functional trait in plant ecology. However, little is known about its genetic variation in natural populations. Here, we investigate genetic and environmental factors shaping variation in the growth rate of Arabidopsis thaliana and ask whether genetic variation in plant growth contributes to adaptation to local environmental conditions. We grew plants under two light regimes that mimic latitudinal differences in the intensity of natural light radiation, and measured plant diameter as it grew over time. When the light supply was decreased, plant diameter grew more slowly but reached a markedly larger final size, confirming that plants can adjust their growth to prevailing light conditions. Yet, we also detected significant levels of genetic variation both in growth rate and in how the growth dynamics is adjusted to the light conditions. We show that this variation is encoded by many loci of small effect that are hard to locate in the genome but overall significantly enriched among genes associated with growth and stress reactions. We further observe that Spanish genotypes tended to reach, on average, a significantly larger rosette size than Northern European genotypes. Tests of adaptive divergence indicate that these differences may reflect adaptation to local environmental conditions.

The diversity of maternal-age effects upon pre-adult survival across animal species

Maternal senescence is the detrimental effect of increased maternal age on offspring performance. Despite much recent interest given to describing this phenomenon, its distribution across animal species is poorly understood. A review of the published literature finds that maternal age affects pre-adult survival in 252 of 272 populations (93%) representing 97 animal species. Age effects tended to be deleterious in invertebrates and mammals, including humans, confirming the presence of senescence. However, bird species were a conspicuous exception, as pre-adult survival tended to increase with maternal age in surveyed populations. In all groups, maternal-age effects became more negative in older mothers. Invertebrates senesced faster than vertebrates, and humans aged faster than non-human mammals. Within invertebrates, lepidopterans demonstrated the most extreme rates of maternal-effect senescence. Among the surveyed studies, phylogeny, life history and environment (e.g. laboratory versus wild populations) were tightly associated; this made it difficult to make confident inferences regarding the causes of diversity for the phenomenon. However, we provide some testable suggestions, and we observe that some differences appear to be consistent with predictions from evolutionary theory. We discuss how future work may help clarify ultimate and proximate causes for this diversity.

Linking genetic merit to sparse behavioral data: behavior and genetic effects on lamb growth in Soay sheep

Wild quantitative genetic studies have focused on a subset of traits (largely morphological and life history), with others, such as behaviors, receiving much less attention. This is because it is challenging to obtain sufficient data, particularly for behaviors involving interactions between individuals. Here, we explore an indirect approach for pilot investigations of the role of genetic differences in generating variation in parental care. Variation in parental genetic effects for offspring performance is expected to arise from among-parent genetic variation in parental care. Therefore, we used the animal model to predict maternal breeding values for lamb growth and used these predictions to select females for field observation, where maternal and lamb behaviors were recorded. Higher predicted maternal breeding value for lamb growth was associated with greater suckling success, but not with any other measures of suckling behavior. Though our work cannot explicitly estimate the genetic basis of the specific traits involved, it does provide a strategy for hypothesis generation and refinement that we hope could be used to justify data collection costs needed for confirmatory studies. Here, results suggest that behavioral genetic variation is involved in generating maternal genetic effects on lamb growth in Soay sheep. Though important caveats and cautions apply, our approach may extend the ability to initiate more genetic investigations of difficult-to-study behaviors and social interactions in natural populations.

A function-valued trait approach to estimating the genetic basis of size at age and its potential role in fisheries-induced evolution

Natural selection is inherently a multivariate phenomenon. The selection pressure on size (natural and artificial) and the age at which selection occurs is likely to induce evolutionary changes in growth rates across the entire life history. However, the covariance structure that will determine the path of evolution for size at age has been studied in only a few fish species. We therefore estimated the genetic covariance function for size throughout ontogeny using Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) as the model system. Over a 3-year period, a total of 542 families were used to estimate the genetic covariance in length at age from hatch through maturity. The function-valued trait approach was employed to estimate the genetic covariance functions. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to account for the unbalanced design, unequal measurement intervals, unequal sample sizes, and family-aggregated data. To improve mixing, we developed a two-stage sampler using a Gibbs sampler to generate the posterior of a well-mixing approximate model followed by an importance sampler to draw samples from posterior of the completely specified model. We found that heritability of length is age-specific and there are strong genetic correlations in length across ages that last 30 days or more. We used these estimates in a hypothetical model predicting the evolutionary response to harvesting following a single generation of selection under both sigmoidal and unimodal patterns of gear selectivity to illustrate the potential outcomes of ignoring the genetic correlations. In these scenarios, genetic correlations were found to have a strong effect on both the direction and magnitude of the response to harvest selection.

Reduced body size of insular black-tailed deer is caused by slowed development

Adult body size correlates strongly with fitness, but mean body sizes frequently differ among conspecific populations. Ultimate, fitness-based explanations for these deviations in animals typically focus on community-level or physiological processes (e.g., competition, thermoregulation). However, proximate mechanisms underlying adaptive body size adjustments remain poorly understood. Adjustments in adult body size may result from shifts in growth-related life-history traits, such as the length of time to achieve adult body size (i.e., growth period) and how quickly the body increases in size (i.e., growth rate). Since insular populations often demonstrate dramatic shifts in adult body size, island populations represent a natural experiment by which to test the proximate mechanisms of size change. Here, using dental eruption patterns, we show that a dwarfed population of black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) experiences significant heterochronic shifts relative to mainland conspecifics. Namely, juvenile development slowed, such that teeth erupted ≥ 1 year later, but cranial growth suggested no concurrent adjustments in skeletal growth period. Thus, slowed growth rate, shown here with teeth, combined with unchanged growth period resulted in dwarfism, consistent with ultimate predictions for insular, resource-limited populations. Therefore, selection on body size may act on life-history traits that influence body size, rather than acting on body size directly.

Social influences on survival and reproduction: Insights from a long-term study of wild baboons

For social species, the environment has two components: physical and social. The social environment modifies the individual's interaction with the physical environment, and the physical environment may in turn impact individuals' social relationships. This interplay can generate considerable variation among individuals in survival and reproduction. Here, I synthesize more than four decades of research on the baboons of the Amboseli basin in southern Kenya to illustrate how social and physical environments interact to affect reproduction and survival. For immature baboons, social behaviour can both mitigate and exacerbate the challenge of survival. Only c. 50% of live-born females and c. 44% of live-born males reach the median age of first reproduction. Variation in pre-adult survival, growth and development is associated with multiple aspects of the social environment. For instance, conspecifics provide direct care and are a major source of social knowledge about food and the environment, but conspecifics can also represent a direct threat to survival through infanticide. In adulthood, both competition (within and between social groups) and cooperative affiliation (i.e. collective action and/or the exchange of social resources such as grooming) are prominent features of baboon social life and have important consequences for reproduction and survival. For instance, adult females with higher social dominance ranks have accelerated reproduction, and adult females that engage in more frequent affiliative social interactions have higher survival throughout adulthood. The early life environment also has important consequences for adult reproduction and survival, as in a number of other bird and mammal species. In seasonal breeders, early life effects often apply to entire cohorts; in contrast, in nonseasonal and highly social species such as baboons, early life effects are more individual-specific, stemming from considerable variation not only in the early physical environment (even if they are born in the same year) but also in the particulars of their social environment.

Gene flow does not prevent personality and morphological differentiation between two blue tit populations

Understanding the causes and consequences of population phenotypic divergence is a central goal in ecology and evolution. Phenotypic divergence among populations can result from genetic divergence, phenotypic plasticity or a combination of the two. However, few studies have deciphered these mechanisms for populations geographically close and connected by gene flow, especially in the case of personality traits. In this study, we used a common garden experiment to explore the genetic basis of the phenotypic divergence observed between two blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) populations inhabiting contrasting habitats separated by 25 km, for two personality traits (exploration speed and handling aggression), one physiological trait (heart rate during restraint) and two morphological traits (tarsus length and body mass). Blue tit nestlings were removed from their population and raised in a common garden for up to 5 years. We then compared adult phenotypes between the two populations, as well as trait-specific Q_st and F_st . Our results revealed differences between populations similar to those found in the wild, suggesting a genetic divergence for all traits. Q_st -F_st comparisons revealed that the trait divergences likely result from dissimilar selection patterns rather than from genetic drift. Our study is one of the first to report a Q_st -F_st comparison for personality traits and adds to the growing body of evidence that population genetic divergence is possible at a small scale for a variety of traits including behavioural traits.

Longitudinal changes in telomere length and associated genetic parameters in dairy cattle analysed using random regression models

Telomeres cap the ends of linear chromosomes and shorten with age in many organisms. In humans short telomeres have been linked to morbidity and mortality. With the accumulation of longitudinal datasets the focus shifts from investigating telomere length (TL) to exploring TL change within individuals over time. Some studies indicate that the speed of telomere attrition is predictive of future disease. The objectives of the present study were to 1) characterize the change in bovine relative leukocyte TL (RLTL) across the lifetime in Holstein Friesian dairy cattle, 2) estimate genetic parameters of RLTL over time and 3) investigate the association of differences in individual RLTL profiles with productive lifespan. RLTL measurements were analysed using Legendre polynomials in a random regression model to describe TL profiles and genetic variance over age. The analyses were based on 1,328 repeated RLTL measurements of 308 female Holstein Friesian dairy cattle. A quadratic Legendre polynomial was fitted to the fixed effect of age in months and to the random effect of the animal identity. Changes in RLTL, heritability and within-trait genetic correlation along the age trajectory were calculated and illustrated. At a population level, the relationship between RLTL and age was described by a positive quadratic function. Individuals varied significantly regarding the direction and amount of RLTL change over life. The heritability of RLTL ranged from 0.36 to 0.47 (SE = 0.05-0.08) and remained statistically unchanged over time. The genetic correlation of RLTL at birth with measurements later in life decreased with the time interval between samplings from near unity to 0.69, indicating that TL later in life might be regulated by different genes than TL early in life. Even though animals differed in their RLTL profiles significantly, those differences were not correlated with productive lifespan (p = 0.954).

Adaptation to a novel family environment involves both apparent and cryptic phenotypic changes

Cryptic evolution occurs when evolutionary change is masked by concurrent environmental change. In most cases, evolutionary changes in the phenotype are masked by changing abiotic factors. However, evolutionary change in one trait might also be masked by evolutionary change in another trait, a phenomenon referred to as evolutionary environmental deterioration. Nevertheless, detecting this second type of cryptic evolution is challenging and there are few compelling examples. Here, we describe a likely case of evolutionary environmental deterioration occurring in experimental burying beetle (Nicrophorus vespilloides) populations that are adapting to a novel social environment that lacks post-hatching parental care. We found that populations rapidly adapted to the removal of post-hatching parental care. This adaptation involved clear increases in breeding success and larval density (number of dispersing larvae produced per gram of breeding carcass), which in turn masked a concurrent increase in the mean larval mass across generations. This cryptic increase in larval mass was accomplished through a change in the reaction norm that relates mean larval mass to larval density. Our results suggest that cryptic evolution might be commonplace in animal families, because evolving trophic and social interactions can potentially mask evolutionary change in other traits, like body size.

A phase transition induces chaos in a predator-prey ecosystem with a dynamic fitness landscape

In many ecosystems, natural selection can occur quickly enough to influence the population dynamics and thus future selection. This suggests the importance of extending classical population dynamics models to include such eco-evolutionary processes. Here, we describe a predator-prey model in which the prey population growth depends on a prey density-dependent fitness landscape. We show that this two-species ecosystem is capable of exhibiting chaos even in the absence of external environmental variation or noise, and that the onset of chaotic dynamics is the result of the fitness landscape reversibly alternating between epochs of stabilizing and disruptive selection. We draw an analogy between the fitness function and the free energy in statistical mechanics, allowing us to use the physical theory of first-order phase transitions to understand the onset of rapid cycling in the chaotic predator-prey dynamics. We use quantitative techniques to study the relevance of our model to observational studies of complex ecosystems, finding that the evolution-driven chaotic dynamics confer community stability at the "edge of chaos" while creating a wide distribution of opportunities for speciation during epochs of disruptive selection-a potential observable signature of chaotic eco-evolutionary dynamics in experimental studies.

Accounting for female space sharing in St. Kilda Soay sheep (Ovis aries) results in little change in heritability estimates

When estimating heritability in free-living populations, it is common practice to account for common environment effects, because of their potential to generate phenotypic covariance among relatives thereby biasing heritability estimates. In quantitative genetic studies of natural populations, however, philopatry, which results in relatives being clustered in space, is rarely accounted for. The two studies that have been carried out so far suggest absolute declines in heritability estimates of up to 43% when accounting for space sharing by relatives. However, due to methodological limitations these estimates may not be representative. We used data from the St. Kilda Soay sheep population to estimate heritabilities with and without accounting for space sharing for five traits for which there is evidence for additive genetic variance (birthweight, birth date, lamb August weight, and female post-mortem jaw and metacarpal length). We accounted for space sharing by related females by separately incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and a home range similarity matrix. Although these terms accounted for up to 18% of the variance in these traits, heritability estimates were only reduced by up to 7%. Our results suggest that the bias caused by not accounting for space sharing may be lower than previously thought. This suggests that philopatry does not inevitably lead to a large bias if space sharing by relatives is not accounted for. We hope our work stimulates researchers to model shared space when relatives in their study population share space, as doing so will enable us to better understand when bias may be of particular concern.

Morphological study of Socorro Island Merino sheep and its crosses with hair breeds

A study was conducted with the objective to characterize the morphology of Socorro Island Merino sheep. A total of 67 sheep, 62 females, 26 purebred and 36 crossbred with hair breeds, and five males were scored for 10 body measurements in addition to live weight, and four racial and seven functional indices were calculated. The influence of sex and crossbreeding on the body measurements and indices was analyzed by one-way analysis of variance, and morphological harmony was determined using Spearman correlation. With exception of rump length, body measurements and live weight were significantly greater in males than in females. Sexual dimorphism was 1.21, with males being 78 % heavier than females. Socorro Island Merino sheep were dolichocephalous, elipometric, with a convex curve rump, and with a high and low morphological harmony for females and males, respectively. They had undefined zootechnical aptitude tended toward dairy phenotype as long as crossbreeding with hair breeds did not affect their functional or productive aptitude. It can be concluded that Socorro Island Merino sheep is a new biotype of the Merino breed, which is necessary to preserve and evaluate as a source of genetic characteristics such as adaptation to harsh environmental conditions.

Persistent directional selection on body size and a resolution to the paradox of stasis

Directional selection on size is common but often fails to result in microevolution in the wild. Similarly, macroevolutionary rates in size are low relative to the observed strength of selection in nature. We show that many estimates of selection on size have been measured on juveniles, not adults. Further, parents influence juvenile size by adjusting investment per offspring. In light of these observations, we help resolve this paradox by suggesting that the observed upward selection on size is balanced by selection against investment per offspring, resulting in little or no net selection gradient on size. We find that trade-offs between fecundity and juvenile size are common, consistent with the notion of selection against investment per offspring. We also find that median directional selection on size is positive for juveniles but no net directional selection exists for adult size. This is expected because parent-offspring conflict exists over size, and juvenile size is more strongly affected by investment per offspring than adult size. These findings provide qualitative support for the hypothesis that upward selection on size is balanced by selection against investment per offspring, where parent-offspring conflict over size is embodied in the opposing signs of the two selection gradients.

The danger within: the role of genetic, behavioural and ecological factors in population persistence of colour polymorphic species

Polymorphic species have been the focus of important work in evolutionary biology. It has been suggested that colour polymorphic species have specific evolutionary and population dynamics that enable them to persist through environmental changes better than less variable species. We suggest that recent empirical and theoretical work indicates that polymorphic species may be more vulnerable to extinction than previously thought. This vulnerability arises because these species often have a number of correlated sexual, behavioural, life history and ecological traits, which can have a simple genetic underpinning. When exacerbated by environmental change, these alternate strategies can lead to conflict between morphs at the genomic and population levels, which can directly or indirectly affect population and evolutionary dynamics. In this perspective, we identify a number of ways in which the nature of the correlated traits, their underpinning genetic architecture, and the inevitable interactions between colour morphs can result in a reduction in population fitness. The principles illustrated here apply to all kinds of discrete polymorphism (e.g. behavioural syndromes), but we focus primarily on colour polymorphism because they are well studied. We urge further empirical investigation of the genetic architecture and interactions in polymorphic species to elucidate the impact on population fitness.

Heterogeneity of genetic architecture of body size traits in a free-living population

Knowledge of the underlying genetic architecture of quantitative traits could aid in understanding how they evolve. In wild populations, it is still largely unknown whether complex traits are polygenic or influenced by few loci with major effect, due to often small sample sizes and low resolution of marker panels. Here, we examine the genetic architecture of five adult body size traits in a free-living population of Soay sheep on St Kilda using 37 037 polymorphic SNPs. Two traits (jaw and weight) show classical signs of a polygenic trait: the proportion of variance explained by a chromosome was proportional to its length, multiple chromosomes and genomic regions explained significant amounts of phenotypic variance, but no SNPs were associated with trait variance when using GWAS. In comparison, genetic variance for leg length traits (foreleg, hindleg and metacarpal) was disproportionately explained by two SNPs on chromosomes 16 (s23172.1) and 19 (s74894.1), which each explained >10% of the additive genetic variance. After controlling for environmental differences, females heterozygous for s74894.1 produced more lambs and recruits during their lifetime than females homozygous for the common allele conferring long legs. We also demonstrate that alleles conferring shorter legs have likely entered the population through a historic admixture event with the Dunface sheep. In summary, we show that different proxies for body size can have very different genetic architecture and that dense SNP helps in understanding both the mode of selection and the evolutionary history at loci underlying quantitative traits in natural populations.

Offspring size at weaning affects survival to recruitment and reproductive performance of primiparous gray seals

Offspring size affects survival and subsequent reproduction in many organisms. However, studies of offspring size in large mammals are often limited to effects on juveniles because of the difficulty of following individuals to maturity. We used data from a long-term study of individually marked gray seals (Halichoerus grypus; Fabricius, 1791) to test the hypothesis that larger offspring have higher survival to recruitment and are larger and more successful primiparous mothers than smaller offspring. Between 1998 and 2002, 1182 newly weaned female pups were branded with unique permanent marks on Sable Island, Canada. Each year through 2012, all branded females returning to the breeding colony were identified in weekly censuses and a subset were captured and measured. Females that survived were significantly longer offspring than those not sighted, indicating size-selective mortality between weaning and recruitment. The probability of female survival to recruitment varied among cohorts and increased nonlinearly with body mass at weaning. Beyond 51.5 kg (mean population weaning mass) weaning mass did not influence the probability of survival. The probability of female survival to recruitment increased monotonically with body length at weaning. Body length at primiparity was positively related to her body length and mass at weaning. Three-day postpartum mass (proxy for birth mass) of firstborn pups was also positively related to body length of females when they were weaned. However, females that were longer or heavier when they were weaned did not wean heavier firstborn offspring.

The role of experiments in understanding fishery-induced evolution

Evidence of fishery-induced evolution has been accumulating rapidly from various avenues of investigation. Here we review the knowledge gained from experimental approaches. The strength of experiments is in their ability to disentangle genetic from environmental differences. Common garden experiments have provided direct evidence of adaptive divergence in the wild and therefore the evolvability of various traits that influence production in numerous species. Most of these cases involve countergradient variation in physiological, life history, and behavioral traits. Selection experiments have provided examples of rapid life history evolution and, more importantly, that fishery-induced selection pressures cause simultaneous divergence of not one but a cluster of genetically and phenotypically correlated traits that include physiology, behavior, reproduction, and other life history characters. The drawbacks of experiments are uncertainties in the scale-up from small, simple environments to larger and more complex systems; the concern that taxons with short life cycles used for experimental research are atypical of those of harvested species; and the difficulty of adequately simulating selection due to fishing. Despite these limitations, experiments have contributed greatly to our understanding of fishery-induced evolution on both empirical and theoretical levels. Future advances will depend on integrating knowledge from experiments with those from modeling, field studies, and molecular genetic approaches.

Variation and covariation in strongyle infection in East African shorthorn zebu calves

Parasite burden varies widely between individuals within a population, and can covary with multiple aspects of individual phenotype. Here we investigate the sources of variation in faecal strongyle eggs counts, and its association with body weight and a suite of haematological measures, in a cohort of indigenous zebu calves in Western Kenya, using relatedness matrices reconstructed from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes. Strongyle egg count was heritable (h² = 23·9%, s.e. = 11·8%) and we also found heritability of white blood cell counts (WBC) (h² = 27·6%, s.e. = 10·6%). All the traits investigated showed negative phenotypic covariances with strongyle egg count throughout the first year: high worm counts were associated with low values of WBC, red blood cell count, total serum protein and absolute eosinophil count. Furthermore, calf body weight at 1 week old was a significant predictor of strongyle EPG at 16–51 weeks, with smaller calves having a higher strongyle egg count later in life. Our results indicate a genetic basis to strongyle EPG in this population, and also reveal consistently strong negative associations between strongyle infection and other important aspects of the multivariate phenotype.

The effect of trait type and strength of selection on heritability and evolvability in an island bird population

The heritability (h(2) ) of fitness traits is often low. Although this has been attributed to directional selection having eroded genetic variation in direct proportion to the strength of selection, heritability does not necessarily reflect a trait's additive genetic variance and evolutionary potential ("evolvability"). Recent studies suggest that the low h(2) of fitness traits in wild populations is caused not by a paucity of additive genetic variance (VA ) but by greater environmental or nonadditive genetic variance (VR ). We examined the relationship between h(2) and variance-standardized selection intensities (i or βσ ), and between evolvability (IA :VA divided by squared phenotypic trait mean) and mean-standardized selection gradients (βμ ). Using 24 years of data from an island population of Savannah sparrows, we show that, across diverse traits, h(2) declines with the strength of selection, whereas IA and IR (VR divided by squared trait mean) are independent of the strength of selection. Within trait types (morphological, reproductive, life-history), h(2) , IA , and IR are all independent of the strength of selection. This indicates that certain traits have low heritability because of increased residual variance due to the age at which they are expressed or the multiple factors influencing their expression, rather than their association with fitness.

Natural selection on individual variation in tolerance of gastrointestinal nematode infection

A 25-year study of wild sheep shows that individuals vary in how quickly they lose weight as parasite infections increase, and that those who lose the least weight when heavily infected produce more offspring.

Hosts may mitigate the impact of parasites by two broad strategies: resistance, which limits parasite burden, and tolerance, which limits the fitness or health cost of increasing parasite burden. The degree and causes of variation in both resistance and tolerance are expected to influence host–parasite evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics and inform disease management, yet very little empirical work has addressed tolerance in wild vertebrates. Here, we applied random regression models to longitudinal data from an unmanaged population of Soay sheep to estimate individual tolerance, defined as the rate of decline in body weight with increasing burden of highly prevalent gastrointestinal nematode parasites. On average, individuals lost weight as parasite burden increased, but whereas some lost weight slowly as burden increased (exhibiting high tolerance), other individuals lost weight significantly more rapidly (exhibiting low tolerance). We then investigated associations between tolerance and fitness using selection gradients that accounted for selection on correlated traits, including body weight. We found evidence for positive phenotypic selection on tolerance: on average, individuals who lost weight more slowly with increasing parasite burden had higher lifetime breeding success. This variation did not have an additive genetic basis. These results reveal that selection on tolerance operates under natural conditions. They also support theoretical predictions for the erosion of additive genetic variance of traits under strong directional selection and fixation of genes conferring tolerance. Our findings provide the first evidence of selection on individual tolerance of infection in animals and suggest practical applications in animal and human disease management in the face of highly prevalent parasites.

Animals can defend themselves against parasites through either resistance (reducing parasite numbers, for example, by killing them) or tolerance (maintaining health as infections levels increase, for example, by repairing damage). Resistance has been well-studied in wild animals, but tolerance has been less so. We analysed data on body weight collected over 25 years on a natural population of Soay sheep, infected with parasitic gut worms. As parasite burden increased, sheep lost weight. Crucially, there was variation among individuals: some lost weight rapidly with increasing infections (i.e., showed “low tolerance”), whereas others lost weight slowly (i.e., showed “high tolerance”). The least tolerant individuals lost 4.5 kg of body weight across the range of parasite burdens that we saw, whereas the most tolerant lost only around 0.36 kg. However, variation in tolerance did not have a heritable genetic basis, so that although tolerance varied between individuals, this was not due to genetic differences. Further analysis revealed that there was natural selection on tolerance. Individuals who were more tolerant of infection produced more offspring over the course of their lives. This study shows that natural selection can act upon resistance and tolerance simultaneously in nature, a result that has implications for both human health and livestock management.

Estimating quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations: a comparison of pedigree and genomic approaches

The estimation of quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations is generally limited by the accuracy and completeness of the available pedigree information. Using relatedness at genomewide markers can potentially remove this limitation and lead to less biased and more precise estimates. We estimated heritability, maternal genetic effects and genetic correlations for body size traits in an unmanaged long-term study population of Soay sheep on St Kilda using three increasingly complete and accurate estimates of relatedness: (i) Pedigree 1, using observation-derived maternal links and microsatellite-derived paternal links; (ii) Pedigree 2, using SNP-derived assignment of both maternity and paternity; and (iii) whole-genome relatedness at 37 037 autosomal SNPs. In initial analyses, heritability estimates were strikingly similar for all three methods, while standard errors were systematically lower in analyses based on Pedigree 2 and genomic relatedness. Genetic correlations were generally strong, differed little between the three estimates of relatedness and the standard errors declined only very slightly with improved relatedness information. When partitioning maternal effects into separate genetic and environmental components, maternal genetic effects found in juvenile traits increased substantially across the three relatedness estimates. Heritability declined compared to parallel models where only a maternal environment effect was fitted, suggesting that maternal genetic effects are confounded with direct genetic effects and that more accurate estimates of relatedness were better able to separate maternal genetic effects from direct genetic effects. We found that the heritability captured by SNP markers asymptoted at about half the SNPs available, suggesting that denser marker panels are not necessarily required for precise and unbiased heritability estimates. Finally, we present guidelines for the use of genomic relatedness in future quantitative genetics studies in natural populations.

Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate.

Local adaptation and evolutionary potential along a temperature gradient in the fungal pathogen Rhynchosporium commune

To predict the response of plant pathogens to climate warming, data are needed on current thermal adaptation, the pathogen's evolutionary potential, and the link between them. We conducted a common garden experiment using isolates of the fungal pathogen Rhynchosporium commune from nine barley populations representing climatically diverse locations. Clonal replicates of 126 genetically distinct isolates were assessed for their growth rate at 12°C, 18°C, and 22°C. Populations originating from climates with higher monthly temperature variation had higher growth rate at all three temperatures compared with populations from climates with less temperature fluctuation. Population differentiation in growth rate (Q_ST) was significantly higher at 22°C than population differentiation for neutral microsatellite loci (G_ST), consistent with local adaptation for growth at higher temperatures. At 18°C, we found evidence for stabilizing selection for growth rate as Q_ST was significantly lower than G_ST. Heritability of growth rate under the three temperatures was substantial in all populations (0.58–0.76). Genetic variation was lower in populations with higher growth rate at the three temperatures and evolvability increased under heat stress in seven of nine populations. Our findings imply that the distribution of this pathogen is unlikely to be genetically limited under climate warming, due to its high genetic variation and plasticity for thermal tolerance.

Morphological and microsatellite DNA diversity of Nigerian indigenous sheep

Background

Sheep is important in the socio-economic lives of people around the world. It is estimated that more than half of our once common livestock breeds are now endangered. Since genetic characterization of Nigerian sheep is still lacking, we analyzed ten morphological traits on 402 animals and 15 microsatellite DNA markers in 384 animals of the 4 Nigerian sheep breeds to better understand genetic diversity for breeding management and germplasm conservation.

Results

Morphological traits of Uda and Balami were significantly (P < 0.05) higher than Yankasa, which were both higher than West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. Stepwise discriminant analysis showed tail length, rump height, chest girth, ear length and chest depth as the most discriminating variables for classification. Mahalanobis distances show the least differentiation between Uda and Balami and the largest between WAD and Balami sheep. While 93.3% of WAD sheep were correctly assigned to their source genetic group, 63.9% of Yankasa, 61.2% of Balami and 45.2% of Uda were classified correctly by nearest neighbour discriminant analysis. The overall high Polymorphism Information Content (PIC) of all microsatellite markers ranged from 0.751 to 0.927 supporting their use in genetic characterization. Expected heterozygosity was high for all loci (0.783 to 0.93). Mean heterozygote deficiency across all populations (0.171 to 0.534) possibly indicate significant inbreeding (P < 0.05). Mean values for F_ST, F_IT and F_IS statistics across all loci were 0.088, 0.394 and 0.336 respectively. Yankasa and Balami are the most closely related breeds (D_A = 0.184) while WAD and Balami are the farthest apart breeds (D_A = 0.665), which is coincident with distance based on morphological analysis and population structure assessed by STRUCTURE.

Conclusions

These results suggest that within-breed genetic variation in Nigerian sheep is higher than between-breeds and may be a valuable tool for genetic improvement and conservation. The higher genetic variability in Yankasa suggests the presence of unique ancestral alleles reflecting the presence of certain functional genes which may result in better adaptability in more agro-ecological zones of Nigeria. These genetic characteristics are potentially useful in planning improvement and conservation strategies in Nigerian indigenous sheep.

Genetics and evolution of function-valued traits: understanding environmentally responsive phenotypes

Many central questions in ecology and evolutionary biology require characterizing phenotypes that change with time and environmental conditions. Such traits are inherently functions, and new 'function-valued' methods use the order, spacing, and functional nature of the data typically ignored by traditional univariate and multivariate analyses. These rapidly developing methods account for the continuous change in traits of interest in response to other variables, and are superior to traditional summary-based analyses for growth trajectories, morphological shapes, and environmentally sensitive phenotypes. Here, we explain how function-valued methods make flexible use of data and lead to new biological insights. These approaches frequently offer enhanced statistical power, a natural basis of interpretation, and are applicable to many existing data sets. We also illustrate applications of function-valued methods to address ecological, evolutionary, and behavioral hypotheses, and highlight future directions.

The prediction of adaptive evolution: empirical application of the secondary theorem of selection and comparison to the breeder's equation

Adaptive evolution occurs when fitness covaries with genetic merit for a trait (or traits). The breeder's equation (BE), in both its univariate and multivariate forms, allows us to predict this process by combining estimates of selection on phenotype with estimates of genetic (co)variation. However, predictions are only valid if all factors causal for trait-fitness covariance are measured. Although this requirement will rarely (if ever) be met in practice, it can be avoided by applying Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS). The STS predicts evolution by directly estimating the genetic basis of trait-fitness covariation without any explicit model of selection. Here we apply the BE and STS to four morphological traits measured in Soay sheep (Ovis aries) from St. Kilda. Despite apparently positive selection on heritable size traits, sheep are not getting larger. However, although the BE predicts increasing size, the STS does not, which is a discrepancy that suggests unmeasured factors are upwardly biasing our estimates of selection on phenotype. We suggest this is likely to be a general issue, and that wider application of the STS could offer at least a partial resolution to the common discrepancy between naive expectations and observed trait dynamics in natural populations.

Evidence for evolution in response to natural selection in a contemporary human population

It is often claimed that modern humans have stopped evolving because cultural and technological advancements have annihilated natural selection. In contrast, recent studies show that selection can be strong in contemporary populations. However, detecting a response to selection is particularly challenging; previous evidence from wild animals has been criticized for both applying anticonservative statistical tests and failing to consider random genetic drift. Here we study life-history variation in an insular preindustrial French-Canadian population and apply a recently proposed conservative approach to testing microevolutionary responses to selection. As reported for other such societies, natural selection favored an earlier age at first reproduction (AFR) among women. AFR was also highly heritable and genetically correlated to fitness, predicting a microevolutionary change toward earlier reproduction. In agreement with this prediction, AFR declined from about 26-22 y over a 140-y period. Crucially, we uncovered a substantial change in the breeding values for this trait, indicating that the change in AFR largely occurred at the genetic level. Moreover, the genetic trend was higher than expected under the effect of random genetic drift alone. Our results show that microevolution can be detectable over relatively few generations in humans and underscore the need for studies of human demography and reproductive ecology to consider the role of evolutionary processes.

Selection on adult female body size in rhesus macaques

Body size is a critical descriptor of animal biology with many ecological, behavioral, and physiological correlates. Size differences among species or between populations are often explained by adaptive scenarios invoking the action of selection, although studies of selection in action on primate body size, or other phenotypic traits, are very rare. We document directional selection for larger skull and postcranial size in the skeletons of female semi-free ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) from Cayo Santiago, born between 1957 and 1982. Larger females live to later ages and consequently give birth to more offspring. Despite selection for larger size, there are indications of a trend toward generally smaller size in the same birth cohorts. This trend is provisionally attributed to increasing population density, though other environmental factors may play a role. Small selection differentials and low heritabilities also limit the genetic response to selection. Alternative explanations for increasing adult size in the skull and postcranium, such as continued adult growth or pathological bone deposition, do not adequately explain the observed age-related trends and are inconsistent with longitudinal studies of adult skeletal change.

Repeatability for Gaussian and non-Gaussian data: a practical guide for biologists

Repeatability (more precisely the common measure of repeatability, the intra-class correlation coefficient, ICC) is an important index for quantifying the accuracy of measurements and the constancy of phenotypes. It is the proportion of phenotypic variation that can be attributed to between-subject (or between-group) variation. As a consequence, the non-repeatable fraction of phenotypic variation is the sum of measurement error and phenotypic flexibility. There are several ways to estimate repeatability for Gaussian data, but there are no formal agreements on how repeatability should be calculated for non-Gaussian data (e.g. binary, proportion and count data). In addition to point estimates, appropriate uncertainty estimates (standard errors and confidence intervals) and statistical significance for repeatability estimates are required regardless of the types of data. We review the methods for calculating repeatability and the associated statistics for Gaussian and non-Gaussian data. For Gaussian data, we present three common approaches for estimating repeatability: correlation-based, analysis of variance (ANOVA)-based and linear mixed-effects model (LMM)-based methods, while for non-Gaussian data, we focus on generalised linear mixed-effects models (GLMM) that allow the estimation of repeatability on the original and on the underlying latent scale. We also address a number of methods for calculating standard errors, confidence intervals and statistical significance; the most accurate and recommended methods are parametric bootstrapping, randomisation tests and Bayesian approaches. We advocate the use of LMM- and GLMM-based approaches mainly because of the ease with which confounding variables can be controlled for. Furthermore, we compare two types of repeatability (ordinary repeatability and extrapolated repeatability) in relation to narrow-sense heritability. This review serves as a collection of guidelines and recommendations for biologists to calculate repeatability and heritability from both Gaussian and non-Gaussian data.

Cryptic evolution: does environmental deterioration have a genetic basis?

Cryptic evolution has been defined as adaptive evolutionary change being masked by concurrent environmental change. Empirical studies of cryptic evolution have usually invoked a changing climate and/or increasing population density as the form of detrimental environmental change experienced by a population undergoing cryptic evolution. However, Fisher (1958) emphasized that evolutionary change in itself is likely to be an important component of "environmental deterioration," a point restated by Cooke et al. (1990) in the context of intraspecific competition. In this form, environmental deterioration arises because a winning lineage has to compete against more winners in successive generations as the population evolves. This "evolutionary environmental deterioration" has different implications for the selection and evolution of traits influenced by resource competition than general environmental change. We reformulate Cooke's model as a quantitative genetic model to show that it is identical in form to more recent developments proposed by quantitative geneticists. This provides a statistical framework for discriminating between the alternative hypotheses of environmental change and environmental deterioration caused by evolutionary change. We also demonstrate that in systems where no phenotypic change has occurred, there are many reasonable biological processes that will generate patterns in predicted breeding values that are consistent with what has been interpreted as cryptic evolution, and care needs to be taken when interpreting these patterns. These processes include mutation, sib competition, and invisible fractions.

Adaptation to climate change: contrasting patterns of thermal-reaction-norm evolution in Pacific versus Atlantic silversides

How organisms may adapt to rising global temperatures is uncertain, but concepts can emerge from studying adaptive physiological trait variations across existing spatial climate gradients. Many ectotherms, particularly fish, have evolved increasing genetic growth capacities with latitude (i.e. countergradient variation (CnGV) in growth), which are thought to be an adaptation primarily to strong gradients in seasonality. In contrast, evolutionary responses to gradients in mean temperature are often assumed to involve an alternative mode, 'thermal adaptation'. We measured thermal growth reaction norms in Pacific silverside populations (Atherinops affinis) occurring across a weak latitudinal temperature gradient with invariant seasonality along the North American Pacific coast. Instead of thermal adaptation, we found novel evidence for CnGV in growth, suggesting that CnGV is a ubiquitous mode of reaction-norm evolution in ectotherms even in response to weak spatial and, by inference, temporal climate gradients. A novel, large-scale comparison between ecologically equivalent Pacific versus Atlantic silversides (Menidia menidia) revealed how closely growth CnGV patterns reflect their respective climate gradients. While steep growth reaction norms and increasing growth plasticity with latitude in M. menidia mimicked the strong, highly seasonal Atlantic coastal gradient, shallow reaction norms and much smaller, latitude-independent growth plasticity in A. affinis resembled the weak Pacific latitudinal temperature gradient.

Individuals and populations: the role of long-term, individual-based studies of animals in ecology and evolutionary biology

Many important questions in ecology and evolutionary biology can only be answered with data that extend over several decades and answering a substantial proportion of questions requires records of the life histories of recognisable individuals. We identify six advantages that long-term, individual based studies afford in ecology and evolution: (i) analysis of age structure; (ii) linkage between life history stages; (iii) quantification of social structure; (iv) derivation of lifetime fitness measures; (v) replication of estimates of selection; (vi) linkage between generations, and we review their impact on studies in six key areas of evolution and ecology. Our review emphasises the unusual opportunities and productivity of long-term, individual-based studies and documents the important role that they play in research on ecology and evolutionary biology as well as the difficulties they face.

Evolution of quantitative traits in the wild: mind the ecology

Recent advances in the quantitative genetics of traits in wild animal populations have created new interest in whether natural selection, and genetic response to it, can be detected within long-term ecological studies. However, such studies have re-emphasized the fact that ecological heterogeneity can confound our ability to infer selection on genetic variation and detect a population's response to selection by conventional quantitative genetics approaches. Here, I highlight three manifestations of this issue: counter gradient variation, environmentally induced covariance between traits and the correlated effects of a fluctuating environment. These effects are symptomatic of the oversimplifications and strong assumptions of the breeder's equation when it is applied to natural populations. In addition, methods to assay genetic change in quantitative traits have overestimated the precision with which change can be measured. In the future, a more conservative approach to inferring quantitative genetic response to selection, or genomic approaches allowing the estimation of selection intensity and responses to selection at known quantitative trait loci, will provide a more precise view of evolution in ecological time.