Effects of Quaternary Climatic Change on Speciation in Mammals

Major population splits coincide with episodes of rapid climate change in a forest-dependent bird

Climate change influences population demography by altering patterns of gene flow and reproductive isolation. Direct mutation rates offer the possibility for accurate dating on the within-species level but are currently only available for a handful of vertebrate species. Here, we use the first directly estimated mutation rate in birds to study the evolutionary history of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Using a combination of demographic inference and species distribution modelling, we show that all major population splits in this forest-dependent system occurred during periods of increased climate instability and rapid global temperature change. We show that the divergent Spanish subspecies originated during the Eemian-Weichselian transition 115-104 thousand years ago (kya), and not during the last glacial maximum (26.5-19 kya), as previously suggested. The magnitude and rates of climate change during the glacial-interglacial transitions that preceded population splits in pied flycatchers were similar to, or exceeded, those predicted to occur in the course of the current, human-induced climate crisis. As such, our results provide a timely reminder of the strong impact that episodes of climate instability and rapid temperature changes can have on species' evolutionary trajectories, with important implications for the natural world in the Anthropocene.

A multi-proxy approach to exploring Homo sapiens' arrival, environments and adaptations in Southeast Asia

The capability of Pleistocene hominins to successfully adapt to different types of tropical forested environments has long been debated. In order to investigate environmental changes in Southeast Asia during a critical period for the turnover of hominin species, we analysed palaeoenvironmental proxies from five late Middle to Late Pleistocene faunas. Human teeth discoveries have been reported at Duoi U'Oi, Vietnam (70-60 ka) and Nam Lot, Laos (86-72 ka). However, the use of palaeoproteomics allowed us to discard the latter, and, to date, no human remains older than ~ 70 ka are documented in the area. Our findings indicate that tropical rainforests were highly sensitive to climatic changes over that period, with significant fluctuations of the canopy forests. Locally, large-bodied faunas were resilient to these fluctuations until the cooling period of the Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS 4; 74-59 ka) that transformed the overall biotope. Then, under strong selective pressures, populations with new phenotypic characteristics emerged while some other species disappeared. We argue that this climate-driven shift offered new foraging opportunities for hominins in a novel rainforest environment and was most likely a key factor in the settlement and dispersal of our species during MIS 4 in SE Asia.

Phylogenomic systematics of the spotted skunks (Carnivora, Mephitidae, Spilogale): Additional species diversity and Pleistocene climate change as a major driver of diversification

Four species of spotted skunks (Carnivora, Mephitidae, Spilogale) are currently recognized: Spilogale angustifrons, S. gracilis, S. putorius, and S. pygmaea. Understanding species boundaries within this group is critical for effective conservation given that regional populations or subspecies (e.g., S. p. interrupta) have experienced significant population declines. Further, there may be currently unrecognized diversity within this genus as some taxa (e.g., S. angustifrons) and geographic regions (e.g., Central America) never have been assessed using DNA sequence data. We analyzed species limits and diversification patterns in spotted skunks using multilocus nuclear (ultraconserved elements) and mitochondrial (whole mitogenomes and single gene analysis) data sets from broad geographic sampling representing all currently recognized species and subspecies. We found a high degree of genetic divergence among Spilogale that reflects seven distinct species and eight unique mitochondrial lineages. Initial divergence between S. pygmaea and all other Spilogale occurred in the Early Pliocene (∼ 5.0 million years ago). Subsequent diversification of the remaining Spilogale into an "eastern" and a "western" lineage occurred during the Early Pleistocene (∼1.5 million years ago). These two lineages experienced temporally coincident patterns of diversification at ∼0.66 and ∼0.35 million years ago into two and ultimately three distinct evolutionary units, respectively. Diversification was confined almost entirely within the Pleistocene during a timeframe characterized by alternating glacial-interglacial cycles, with the origin of this diversity occurring in northeastern Mexico and the southwestern United States of America. Mitochondrial-nuclear discordance was recovered across three lineages in geographic regions consistent with secondary contact, including a distinct mitochondrial lineage confined to the Sonoran Desert. Our results have direct consequences for conservation of threatened populations, or species, as well as for our understanding of the evolution of delayed implantation in this enigmatic group of small carnivores.

Mitochondrial Genomes of the United States Distribution of Gray Fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) Reveal a Major Phylogeographic Break at the Great Plains Suture Zone

We examined phylogeographic structure in gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) across the United States to identify the location of secondary contact zone(s) between eastern and western lineages and investigate the possibility of additional cryptic intraspecific divergences. We generated and analyzed complete mitochondrial genome sequence data from 75 samples and partial control region mitochondrial DNA sequences from 378 samples to investigate levels of genetic diversity and structure through population- and individual-based analyses including estimates of divergence (FST and SAMOVA), median joining networks, and phylogenies. We used complete mitochondrial genomes to infer phylogenetic relationships and date divergence times of major lineages of Urocyon in the United States. Despite broad-scale sampling, we did not recover additional major lineages of Urocyon within the United States, but identified a deep east-west split (∼0.8 million years) with secondary contact at the Great Plains Suture Zone and confirmed the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis) is nested within U. cinereoargenteus. Genetic diversity declined at northern latitudes in the eastern United States, a pattern concordant with post-glacial recolonization and range expansion. Beyond the east-west divergence, morphologically-based subspecies did not form monophyletic groups, though unique haplotypes were often geographically limited. Gray foxes in the United States displayed a deep, cryptic divergence suggesting taxonomic revision is needed. Secondary contact at a common phylogeographic break, the Great Plains Suture Zone, where environmental variables show a sharp cline, suggests ongoing evolutionary processes may reinforce this divergence. Follow-up study with nuclear markers should investigate whether hybridization is occurring along the suture zone and characterize contemporary population structure to help identify conservation units. Comparative work on other wide-ranging carnivores in the region should test whether similar evolutionary patterns and processes are occurring.

Why aren't rabbits and hares larger?

Macroevolutionary consequences of competition among large clades have long been sought in patterns of lineage diversification. However, mechanistically clear examples of such effects remain elusive. Here, we postulated that the limited phenotypic diversity and insular gigantism in lagomorphs could be explained at least in part by an evolutionary constraint placed on them by potentially competing ungulate-type herbivores (UTHs). Our analyses yielded three independent lines of evidence supporting this hypothesis: (1) the minimum UTH body mass is the most influential predictor of the maximum lagomorph body mass in modern ecoregions; (2) the scaling patterns of local-population energy use suggest universal competitive disadvantage of lagomorphs weighing over approximately 6.3 kg against artiodactyls, closely matching their observed upper size limit in continental settings; and (3) the trajectory of maximum lagomorph body mass in North America from the late Eocene to the Pleistocene (37.5-1.5 million years ago) was best modeled by the body mass ceiling placed by the smallest contemporary perissodactyl or artiodactyl. Body size evolution in lagomorphs has likely been regulated by the forces of competition within the clade, increased predation in open habitats, and importantly, competition from other ungulate-type herbivores. Our findings suggest conditionally-coupled dynamics of phenotypic boundaries among multiple clades within an adaptive zone, and highlight the synergy of biotic and abiotic drivers of diversity.

Historical climatic instability predicts the inverse latitudinal pattern in speciation rate of modern mammalian biota

Evolutionary rate explanations for latitudinal diversity gradients predict faster speciation and diversification rates in richer, older and more stable tropical regions (climatic stability hypothesis). Numerous modern lineages have emerged in high latitudes, however, suggesting that climatic oscillations can drive population divergence, at least among extratropical species (glacial refugia hypothesis). This conflicting evidence suggests that geographical patterns of evolutionary rates are more complicated than previously thought. Here, we reconstructed the complex evolutionary dynamics of a comprehensive data set of modern mammals, both terrestrial and marine. We performed global and regional regression analyses to investigate how climatic instability could have indirectly influenced contemporary diversity gradients through its effects on evolutionary rates. In particular, we explored global and regional patterns of the relationships between species richness and assemblage-level evolutionary rates and between evolutionary rates and climatic instability. We found an inverse relationship between evolutionary rates and species richness, especially in the terrestrial domain. Additionally, climatic instability was strongly associated with the highest evolutionary rates at high terrestrial latitudes, supporting the glacial refugia hypothesis there. At low latitudes, evolutionary rates were unrelated to climatic stability. The inverse relationship between evolutionary rates and the modern latitudinal diversity gradient casts doubt on the idea that higher evolutionary rates in the tropics underlie the current diversity patterns of modern mammals. Alternatively, the longer time spans for diversity to accumulate in the older and more stable tropics (and not high diversification rates) may explain the latitudinal diversity gradient.

Rapid size change associated with intra-island evolutionary radiation in extinct Caribbean "island-shrews"

BACKGROUND

The Caribbean offers a unique opportunity to study evolutionary dynamics in insular mammals. However, the recent extinction of most Caribbean non-volant mammals has obstructed evolutionary studies, and poor DNA preservation associated with tropical environments means that very few ancient DNA sequences are available for extinct vertebrates known from the region's Holocene subfossil record. The endemic Caribbean eulipotyphlan family Nesophontidae ("island-shrews") became extinct ~ 500 years ago, and the taxonomic validity of many Nesophontes species and their wider evolutionary dynamics remain unclear. Here we use both morphometric and palaeogenomic methods to clarify the status and evolutionary history of Nesophontes species from Hispaniola, the second-largest Caribbean island.

RESULTS

Principal component analysis of 65 Nesophontes mandibles from late Quaternary fossil sites across Hispaniola identified three non-overlapping morphometric clusters, providing statistical support for the existence of three size-differentiated Hispaniolan Nesophontes species. We were also able to extract and sequence ancient DNA from a ~ 750-year-old specimen of Nesophontes zamicrus, the smallest non-volant Caribbean mammal, including a whole-mitochondrial genome and partial nuclear genes. Nesophontes paramicrus (39-47 g) and N. zamicrus (~ 10 g) diverged recently during the Middle Pleistocene (mean estimated divergence = 0.699 Ma), comparable to the youngest species splits in Eulipotyphla and other mammal groups. Pairwise genetic distance values for N. paramicrus and N. zamicrus based on mitochondrial and nuclear genes are low, but fall within the range of comparative pairwise data for extant eulipotyphlan species-pairs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our combined morphometric and palaeogenomic analyses provide evidence for multiple co-occurring species and rapid body size evolution in Hispaniolan Nesophontes, in contrast to patterns of genetic and morphometric differentiation seen in Hispaniola's extant non-volant land mammals. Different components of Hispaniola's mammal fauna have therefore exhibited drastically different rates of morphological evolution. Morphological evolution in Nesophontes is also rapid compared to patterns across the Eulipotyphla, and our study provides an important new example of rapid body size change in a small-bodied insular vertebrate lineage. The Caribbean was a hotspot for evolutionary diversification as well as preserving ancient biodiversity, and studying the surviving representatives of its mammal fauna is insufficient to reveal the evolutionary patterns and processes that generated regional diversity.

How do small birds evolve in response to climate change? Data from the long-term record at La Brea tar pits

Biology textbooks describe the small changes in the beaks of the Galápagos finches as exemplars of how birds evolve in response to environmental changes. However, recent studies of the abundant fossil birds at Rancho La Brea find no evidence of evolutionary responses to the dramatic climate changes of the glacial-interglacial cycle over the past 35 000 years: none of the large birds exhibit any change in body size or limb proportions, even during the last glacial maximum approximately 18 000-20 000 years ago, when the southern California chaparral was replaced by snowy coniferous forests. However, these are all large birds with large ranges and broad habitat preferences, capable of living in many different environments. Perhaps the smaller birds at La Brea, which have smaller home ranges and narrower habitats, might respond to climate more like Galápagos finches. The only 3 common small birds at La Brea are the western meadowlark, the yellow-billed magpie and the raven. In this study, we demonstrate that these birds also show complete stasis over the last glacial-interglacial cycle, with no statistically significant changes between dated pits. Recent research suggests that the small-scale changes over short timescales seen in the Galápagos finches are merely fluctuations around a stable morphology, and rarely lead to long-term accumulation of changes or speciation. Instead, the prevalence of stasis supports the view that long-term directional changes in morphology are quite rare. While directional changes in morphology occur frequently over short (<1 ka) timescales, in the long term such changes only rarely remain stable for long enough to appear in the fossil record.

Is the diversification of Mediterranean Basin plant lineages coupled to karyotypic changes?

The Mediterranean Basin region, home to 25,000 plant species, is included in the worldwide list of hotspots of biodiversity. Despite the indisputably important role of chromosome transitions in plant evolution and diversification, no reference study to date has dealt with the possible relationship between chromosome evolution and lineage diversification in the Mediterranean Basin. Here we study patterns of diversification, patterns of chromosome number transition (either polyploidy or dysploidy) and the relationship between the two for 14 Mediterranean Basin angiosperm lineages using previously published phylogenies. We found a mixed pattern, with half of the lineages displaying a change in chromosome transition rates after the onset of the Mediterranean climate (six increases, one decrease) and the other half (six) experiencing constant rates of chromosome transitions through time. We have also found a heterogeneous pattern regarding diversification rates, with lineages exhibiting moderate (five phylogenies) or low (six) initial diversification rates that either increased (six) or declined (five) through time. Our results reveal no clear link between diversification rates and chromosome number transition rates. By promoting the formation of new habitats and driving the extinction of many species, the Mediterranean onset and the posterior Quaternary climatic oscillations could have been key for the establishment of new chromosomal variants in some plant phylogenies but not in others. While the biodiversity of the Mediterranean Basin may be partly influenced by the chromosomal diversity of its lineages, this study concludes that lineage diversification in the region is largely decoupled from karyotypic evolution.

Ephemeral ecological speciation and the latitudinal biodiversity gradient

The richness of biodiversity in the tropics compared to high-latitude parts of the world forms one of the most globally conspicuous patterns in biology, and yet few hypotheses aim to explain this phenomenon in terms of explicit microevolutionary mechanisms of speciation and extinction. We link population genetic processes of selection and adaptation to speciation and extinction by way of their interaction with environmental factors to drive global scale macroecological patterns. High-latitude regions are both cradle and grave with respect to species diversification. In particular, we point to a conceptual equivalence of "environmental harshness" and "hard selection" as eco-evolutionary drivers of local adaptation and ecological speciation. By describing how ecological speciation likely occurs more readily at high latitudes, with such nascent species especially prone to extinction by fusion, we derive the ephemeral ecological speciation hypothesis as an integrative mechanistic explanation for latitudinal gradients in species turnover and the net accumulation of biodiversity.

Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals

Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

A 2.5-million-year perspective on coarse-filter strategies for conserving nature's stage

Climate change will require novel conservation strategies. One such tactic is a coarse-filter approach that focuses on conserving nature's stage (CNS) rather than the actors (individual species). However, there is a temporal mismatch between the long-term goals of conservation and the short-term nature of most ecological studies, which leaves many assumptions untested. Paleoecology provides a valuable perspective on coarse-filter strategies by marshaling the natural experiments of the past to contextualize extinction risk due to the emerging impacts of climate change and anthropogenic threats. We reviewed examples from the paleoecological record that highlight the strengths, opportunities, and caveats of a CNS approach. We focused on the near-time geological past of the Quaternary, during which species were subjected to widespread changes in climate and concomitant changes in the physical environment in general. Species experienced a range of individualistic responses to these changes, including community turnover and novel associations, extinction and speciation, range shifts, changes in local richness and evenness, and both equilibrium and disequilibrium responses. Due to the dynamic nature of species responses to Quaternary climate change, a coarse-filter strategy may be appropriate for many taxa because it can accommodate dynamic processes. However, conservationists should also consider that the persistence of landforms varies across space and time, which could have potential long-term consequences for geodiversity and thus biodiversity.

Differential effects of temperature change and human impact on European Late Quaternary mammalian extinctions

Species that inhabited Europe during the Late Quaternary were impacted by temperature changes and early humans, resulting in the disappearance of half of the European large mammals. However, quantifying the relative importance that each factor had in the extinction risk of species has been challenging, mostly due to the spatio-temporal biases of fossil records, which complicate the calibration of realistic and accurate ecological niche modeling. Here, we overcome this problem by using ecotypes, and not real species, to run our models. We created 40 ecotypes with different temperature requirements (mean temperature from -20 °C to 25 °C and temperature range from 10 °C to 40 °C) and used them to quantify the effect of climate change and human impact. Our results show that cold-adapted ecotypes would have been highly affected by past temperature changes in Europe, whereas temperate and warm-adapted ecotypes would have been positively affected by temperature change. Human impact affected all ecotypes negatively, and temperate ecotypes suffered the greatest impacts. Based on these results, the extinction of cold-adapted species like Mammuthus primigenius may be related to temperature change, while the extinction of temperate species, like Crocuta crocuta, may be related to human impact. Our results suggest that temperature change and human impact affected different ecotypes in distinct ways, and that the interaction of both impacts may have shaped species extinctions in Europe.

Mean annual precipitation explains spatiotemporal patterns of Cenozoic mammal beta diversity and latitudinal diversity gradients in North America

Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i) a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences) spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma--present), and (ii) climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity) is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP) estimated from paleosols (∼ 450 mm/year) and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs) increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential.

Morphologically Conservative but Physiologically Diverse: The Mode of Stasis in Anostraca (Crustacea: Branchiopoda)

The essay discusses whether biotic and abiotic environments differ in their ability to speed up or slow down morphological change and the generation of new lineages. Examples from the class Branchiopoda show that morphological conservatism is associated with enemy free space in species-poor habitats dominated by abiotic factors, while Red Queen mechanisms are predominant in larger systems with complex biotic interactions. Splitting of Branchiopod main lineages is associated with increased fish predation during the Devonian. The order Cladocera adapted and remained in larger aquatic systems, and subsequently generated a variety of new families, genera and species. The order Anostraca, on the other hand, maintained its ancestral morphology and survived only as "living fossils" in isolated ponds of harsh habitats. Despite their archaic morphology, however, they possess highly sophisticated adaptations to local physicochemical properties of their extreme environment. Hence, although morphologically conservative and possessing traits typical for "living fossils", anostracan physiological abilities are closely adapted to the challenging and variable physicochemical conditions of ponds and ephemeral pools.

Pleistocene climate change and the origin of two desert plant species, Pugionium cornutum and Pugionium dolabratum (Brassicaceae), in northwest China

Pleistocene climate change has had an important effect in shaping intraspecific genetic variation in many species; however, its role in driving speciation is less clear. We examined the possibility of a Pleistocene origin of the only two representatives of the genus Pugionium (Brassicaceae), Pugionium cornutum and Pugionium dolabratum, which occupy different desert habitats in northwest China. We surveyed sequence variation for internal transcribed spacer (ITS), three chloroplast (cp) DNA fragments, and eight low-copy nuclear genes among individuals sampled from 11 populations of each species across their geographic ranges. One ITS mutation distinguished the two species, whereas mutations in cpDNA and the eight low-copy nuclear gene sequences were not species-specific. Although interspecific divergence varied greatly among nuclear gene sequences, in each case divergence was estimated to have occurred within the Pleistocene when deserts expanded in northwest China. Our findings point to the importance of Pleistocene climate change, in this case an increase in aridity, as a cause of speciation in Pugionium as a result of divergence in different habitats that formed in association with the expansion of deserts in China.

Is evolution of blind mole rats determined by climate oscillations?

The concept of climate variability facilitating adaptive radiation supported by the “Court Jester” hypothesis is disputed by the “Red Queen” one, but the prevalence of one or the other might be scale-dependent. We report on a detailed, comprehensive phylo-geographic study on the ∼4 kb mtDNA sequence in underground blind mole rats of the family Spalacidae (or subfamily Spalacinae) from the East Mediterranean steppes. Our study aimed at testing the presence of periodicities in branching patterns on a constructed phylogenetic tree and at searching for congruence between branching events, tectonic history and paleoclimates. In contrast to the strong support for the majority of the branching events on the tree, the absence of support in a few instances indicates that network-like evolution could exist in spalacids. In our tree, robust support was given, in concordance with paleontological data, for the separation of spalacids from muroid rodents during the first half of the Miocene when open, grass-dominated habitats were established. Marine barriers formed between Anatolia and the Balkans could have facilitated the separation of the lineage “Spalax” from the lineage “Nannospalax” and of the clade “leucodon” from the clade “xanthodon”. The separation of the clade “ehrenbergi” occurred during the late stages of the tectonically induced uplift of the Anatolian high plateaus and mountains, whereas the separation of the clade “vasvarii” took place when the rapidly uplifting Taurus mountain range prevented the Mediterranean rainfalls from reaching the Central Anatolian Plateau. The separation of Spalax antiquus and S. graecus occurred when the southeastern Carpathians were uplifted. Despite the role played by tectonic events, branching events that show periodicity corresponding to 400-kyr and 100-kyr eccentricity bands illuminate the important role of orbital fluctuations on adaptive radiation in spalacids. At the given scale, our results supports the “Court Jester” hypothesis over the “Red Queen” one.

Identification and characterization of the contact zone between short-tailed shrews (Blarina) in Iowa and Missouri

Short-tailed shrews (genus Blarina Gray, 1838) are characterized by divergent karyotypes and are genetically distinct. Blarina species are similar morphologically but, in most cases, can be distinguished morphometrically. Blarina distributions tend to be parapatric along well-defined contact zones; however, it has been suggested that the northern short-tailed shrew ( Blarina brevicauda (Say, 1823)) and Elliot’s short-tailed shrew ( Blarina hylophaga Elliot, 1899) occur sympatrically in Iowa and Missouri. To evaluate this possibility, 179 specimens were collected in southwestern Iowa and northwestern Missouri. Karyotypes and total length were used for field identification, and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis was used to verify field identifications and to investigate the extent of hybridization. One hundred seventy-eight of 179 specimens were identified to species. The one exception had a karyotype of B. brevicauda (2n = 50, FN = 48); however, AFLP analysis indicated that this individual was likely an F1hybrid. No backcrosses were detected, so it appears that introgression is minimal. The putative hybrid was trapped at a locality with B. brevicauda just north of a locality having only B. hylophaga. No locality contained both species. Therefore, these species are not broadly sympatric as has been suggested, but rather exhibit a distribution similar to the pattern of parapatry seen in most of the contact zones of Blarina.

Detecting shifts in diversity limits from molecular phylogenies: what can we know?

Large complete species-level molecular phylogenies can provide the most direct information about the macroevolutionary history of clades having poor fossil records. However, extinction will ultimately erode evidence of pulses of rapid speciation in the deep past. Assessment of how well, and for how long, phylogenies retain the signature of such pulses has hitherto been based on a--probably untenable--model of ongoing diversity-independent diversification. Here, we develop two new tests for changes in diversification 'rules' and evaluate their power to detect sudden increases in equilibrium diversity in clades simulated with diversity-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Pulses of diversification are only detected easily if they occurred recently and if the rate of species turnover at equilibrium is low; rates reported for fossil mammals suggest that the power to detect a doubling of species diversity falls to 50 per cent after less than 50 Myr even with a perfect phylogeny of extant species. Extinction does eventually draw a veil over past dynamics, suggesting that some questions are beyond the limits of inference, but sudden clade-wide pulses of speciation can be detected after many millions of years, even when overall diversity is constrained. Applying our methods to existing phylogenies of mammals and angiosperms identifies intervals of elevated diversification in each.

Ecological changes in Miocene mammalian record show impact of prolonged climatic forcing

Geohistorical records reveal the long-term impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure. A 5-myr record of mammalian faunas from floodplain ecosystems of South Asia shows substantial change in species richness and ecological structure in relation to vegetation change as documented by stable isotopes of C and O from paleosols. Between 8.5 and 6.0 Ma, C(4) savannah replaced C(3) forest and woodland. Isotopic historical trends for 27 mammalian herbivore species, in combination with ecomorphological data from teeth, show three patterns of response. Most forest frugivores and browsers maintained their dietary habits and disappeared. Other herbivores altered their dietary habits to include increasing amounts of C(4) plants and persisted for >1 myr during the vegetation transition. The few lineages that persisted through the vegetation transition show isotopic enrichment of delta(13)C values over time. These results are evidence for long-term climatic forcing of vegetation structure and mammalian ecological diversity at the subcontinental scale.

Pygmoid Australomelanesian Homo sapiens skeletal remains from Liang Bua, Flores: population affinities and pathological abnormalities

Liang Bua 1 (LB1) exhibits marked craniofacial and postcranial asymmetries and other indicators of abnormal growth and development. Anomalies aside, 140 cranial features place LB1 within modern human ranges of variation, resembling Australomelanesian populations. Mandibular and dental features of LB1 and LB6/1 either show no substantial deviation from modern Homo sapiens or share features (receding chins and rotated premolars) with Rampasasa pygmies now living near Liang Bua Cave. We propose that LB1 is drawn from an earlier pygmy H. sapiens population but individually shows signs of a developmental abnormality, including microcephaly. Additional mandibular and postcranial remains from the site share small body size but not microcephaly.

What can we learn about ecology and evolution from the fossil record?

The increased application of abundance data embedded within a more detailed and precise environmental context is enabling paleontologists to explore more rigorously the dynamics and underlying processes of ecological and evolutionary change in deep time. Several recent findings are of special theoretical interest. Community membership is commonly more stable and persistent than expected by chance, even in the face of the extreme environmental changes of the Ice Ages, and major evolutionary novelties commonly lie dormant for tens of millions of years before the ecological explosions of the clades that possess them. As we discuss here, questions such as these cannot be adequately addressed without the use of the fossil record.