COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

Politics and confidence toward the COVID-19 vaccination: A Brazilian cross-sectional study

This study has the aim of assessing the Brazilian perceptions, influencing factors and political positioning on the confidence concerning COVID-19 vaccination. To achieve the objective, the methods rely on a cross-sectional survey of Brazilian citizens, distributed through different social networks. The sample is composed of 1,670 valid responses, collected from almost all Brazilian states and state capitals. To analyze the data and give a clear view of the variables' relationship, the study used bivariate and comparative graphs. Results show a higher level of confidence in vaccines from Pfizer and AstraZeneca, while the lower level of confidence is associated with vaccines from Sinopharm and Sputinik5. Vaccine efficacy is the most significant influencing factor that helps in the decision to get vaccinated. Also, individuals are less willing to get vaccinated if their political preferences are related to the right-wing. The results led to three main health and social implications: i) the vaccination strategy campaigns should take in count vaccine efficacy and political aspects; ii) the vaccination process should be adapted to regions with different political positions; and iii) a reinforcement in the educational policies of the vaccine's importance to the public health, to avoid the politization of a health issue.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region.

METHODS

In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023.

RESULTS

The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

A Snapshot of COVID-19 Vaccine Discourse Related to Ethnic Minority Communities in the United Kingdom Between January and April 2022: Mixed Methods Analysis

BACKGROUND

Existing literature highlights the role of social media as a key source of information for the public during the COVID-19 pandemic and its influence on vaccination attempts. Yet there is little research exploring its role in the public discourse specifically among ethnic minority communities, who have the highest rates of vaccine hesitancy (delay or refusal of vaccination despite availability of services).

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to understand the discourse related to minority communities on social media platforms Twitter and YouTube.

METHODS

Social media data from the United Kingdom was extracted from Twitter and YouTube using the software Netlytics and YouTube Data Tools to provide a "snapshot" of the discourse between January and April 2022. A mixed method approach was used where qualitative data were contextualized into codes. Network analysis was applied to provide insight into the most frequent and weighted keywords and topics of conversations.

RESULTS

A total of 260 tweets and 156 comments from 4 YouTube videos were included in our analysis. Our data suggests that the most popular topics of conversation during the period sampled were related to communication strategies adopted during the booster vaccine rollout. These were noted to be divisive in nature and linked to wider conversations around racism and historical mistrust toward institutions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests a shift in narrative from concerns about the COVID-19 vaccine itself, toward the strategies used in vaccination implementation, in particular the targeting of ethnic minority groups through vaccination campaigns. The implications for public health communication during crisis management in a pandemic context include acknowledging wider experiences of discrimination when addressing ethnic minority communities.

Government-Nongovernmental Organization (NGO) Collaboration in Macao's COVID-19 Vaccine Promotion: Social Media Case Study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented global vaccination efforts, with social media being a popular tool for vaccine promotion.

OBJECTIVE

This study probes into Macao's COVID-19 vaccine communication dynamics, with a focus on the multifaceted impacts of government agendas on social media.

METHODS

We scrutinized 22,986 vaccine-related Facebook posts from January 2020 to August 2022 in Macao. Using automated content analysis and advanced statistical methods, we unveiled intricate agenda dynamics between government and nongovernment entities.

RESULTS

"Vaccine importance" and "COVID-19 risk" were the most prominent topics co-occurring in the overall vaccine communication. The government tended to emphasize "COVID-19 risk" and "vaccine effectiveness," while regular users prioritized vaccine safety and distribution, indicating a discrepancy in these agendas. Nonetheless, the government has limited impact on regular users in the aspects of vaccine importance, accessibility, affordability, and trust in experts. The agendas of government and nongovernment users intertwined, illustrating complex interactions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study reveals the influence of government agendas on public discourse, impacting environmental awareness, public health education, and the social dynamics of inclusive communication during health crises. Inclusive strategies, accommodating public concerns, and involving diverse stakeholders are paramount for effective social media communication during health crises.

Perspectives on the COVID-19 Vaccination Rollout in 17 Countries: Reflexive Thematic and Frequency Analysis Based on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) Framework

BACKGROUND

As the SARS-CoV-2 virus created a global pandemic and rapidly became an imminent threat to the health and lives of people worldwide, the need for a vaccine and its quick distribution among the population was evident. Due to the urgency, and on the back of international collaboration, vaccines were developed rapidly. However, vaccination rollouts showed different success rates in different countries and some also led to increased vaccine hesitancy.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify the role of information sharing and context sensitivity in various vaccination programs throughout the initial COVID-19 vaccination rollout in different countries. Moreover, we aimed to identify factors in national vaccination programs related to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, safety, and effectiveness. Toward this end, multidisciplinary and multinational opinions from members of the Navigating Knowledge Landscape (NKL) network were analyzed.

METHODS

From May to July 2021, 25 completed questionnaires from 27 NKL network members were collected. These contributors were from 17 different countries. The responses reflected the contributors' subjective viewpoints on the status and details of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in their countries. Contributors were asked to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (ie, SWOT) of the respective vaccination programs. The responses were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis, followed by frequency analysis of identified themes according to the represented countries.

RESULTS

The perspectives of NKL network members showed a link between organizational elements of the vaccination rollout and the accompanying societal response, both of which were related to strengths and weaknesses of the process. External sociocultural variables, improved public communication around vaccination-related issues, ethical controversies, and the spread of disinformation were the dominant themes related to opportunities and challenges. In the SWOT 2×2 matrix, Availability and Barriers emerged as internal categories, whereas Transparent communication and promotion and Societal divide emerged as key external categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Inventory of themes and categories inspired by elements of the SWOT framework provides an informative multidisciplinary perspective for effective implementation of public health strategies in the battle against COVID-19 or any future pandemics of a similar nature.

Vaccination and its impact on healthcare utilization in two groups of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients with COVID-19: A cross-sectional study in Iran between 2021 and 2022

Background and Aims

One of the main responsibilities of health systems impacted by the global Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, where the first case was discovered in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, is the provision of medical services. The current study looked into the impact of vaccination on the utilization of services provided to COVID-19 patients.

Methods

This study was conducted in Iran between 2021 and 2022, utilizing a cross-sectional research design. The research team collected data on the utilization of provided services and the number of COVID-19 vaccines administered to 1000 patients in Iran through a random sampling approach. The data were analyzed with statistical methods, including the mean difference test, and multiple linear regression.

Results

Regression estimates show that after controlling for confounding variables like age, type of admission, and comorbidities, vaccination reduces the utilization of healthcare services in the general majority of services. The study's results reveal a fall in COVID-19 patients' utilization of services, specifically in patients administered two or three doses of the vaccine. However, the reduction is not statistically significant. Regression models are in contrast to univariate analysis findings that vaccination increases the mean utilization of healthcare services for COVID-19 patients in general. Comorbidities are a crucial factor in determining the utilization of diagnostic and treatment services for COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion

Full COVID-19 vaccination and other implementations, including investing in public health, cooperating globally, and vaccinating high-risk groups for future pandemics, are essential as a critical response to this pandemic as they reduce healthcare service utilization to alleviate the burden on healthcare systems and allocate resources more efficiently.

Exploring COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake in Nairobi's urban informal settlements: an unsupervised machine learning analysis of a longitudinal prospective cohort study from 2021 to 2022

OBJECTIVES

To illustrate the utility of unsupervised machine learning compared with traditional methods of analysis by identifying archetypes within the population that may be more or less likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

DESIGN

A longitudinal prospective cohort study (n=2009 households) with recurring phone surveys from 2020 to 2022 to assess COVID-19 knowledge, attitudes and practices. Vaccine questions were added in 2021 (n=1117) and 2022 (n=1121) rounds.

SETTING

Five informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals from 2009 households included.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

Respondents were asked about COVID-19 vaccine acceptance (February 2021) and vaccine uptake (March 2022). Three distinct clusters were estimated using K-Means clustering and analysed against vaccine acceptance and vaccine uptake outcomes using regression forest analysis.

RESULTS

Despite higher educational attainment and fewer concerns regarding the pandemic, young adults (cluster 3) were less likely to intend to get the vaccine compared with cluster 1 (41.5% vs 55.3%, respectively; p<0.01). Despite believing certain COVID-19 myths, older adults with larger households and more fears regarding economic impacts of the pandemic (cluster 1) were more likely to ultimately to get vaccinated than cluster 3 (78% vs 66.4%; p<0.01), potentially due to employment requirements. Middle-aged women who are married or divorced and reported higher risk of gender-based violence in the home (cluster 2) were more likely than young adults (cluster 3) to report wanting to get the vaccine (50.5% vs 41.5%; p=0.014) but not more likely to have gotten it (69.3% vs 66.4%; p=0.41), indicating potential gaps in access and broader need for social support for this group.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest this methodology can be a useful tool to characterise populations, with utility for improving targeted policy, programmes and behavioural messaging to promote uptake of healthy behaviours and ensure equitable distribution of prevention measures.

Accuracy of Self-Reported COVID-19 Vaccination Status Compared With a Public Health Vaccination Registry in Québec: Observational Diagnostic Study

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of self-reported vaccination status is important to guide real-world vaccine effectiveness studies and policy making in jurisdictions where access to electronic vaccine registries is restricted.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine the accuracy of self-reported vaccination status and reliability of the self-reported number of doses, brand, and time of vaccine administration.

METHODS

This diagnostic accuracy study was completed by the Canadian COVID-19 Emergency Department Rapid Response Network. We enrolled consecutive patients presenting to 4 emergency departments (EDs) in Québec between March 24, 2020, and December 25, 2021. We included adult patients who were able to consent, could speak English or French, and had a proven COVID-19 infection. We compared the self-reported vaccination status of the patients with their vaccination status in the electronic Québec Vaccination Registry. Our primary outcome was the accuracy of the self-reported vaccination status (index test) ascertained during telephone follow-up compared with the Québec Vaccination Registry (reference standard). The accuracy was calculated by dividing all correctly self-reported vaccinated and unvaccinated participants by the sum of all correctly and incorrectly self-reported vaccinated and unvaccinated participants. We also reported interrater agreement with the reference standard as measured by unweighted Cohen κ for self-reported vaccination status at telephone follow-up and at the time of their index ED visit, number of vaccine doses, and brand.

RESULTS

During the study period, we included 1361 participants. At the time of the follow-up interview, 932 participants reported at least 1 dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. The accuracy of the self-reported vaccination status was 96% (95% CI 95%-97%). Cohen κ for self-reported vaccination status at phone follow-up was 0.91 (95% CI 0.89-0.93) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.77-0.92) at the time of their index ED visit. Cohen κ was 0.89 (95% CI 0.87-0.91) for the number of doses, 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) for the brand of the first dose, 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.83) for the brand of the second dose, and 0.59 (95% CI 0.34-0.83) for the brand of the third dose.

CONCLUSIONS

We reported a high accuracy of self-reported vaccination status for adult patients without cognitive disorders who can express themselves in English or French. Researchers can use self-reported COVID-19 vaccination data on the number of doses received, vaccine brand name, and timing of vaccination to guide future research with patients who are capable of self-reporting their vaccination data. However, access to official electronic vaccine registries is still needed to determine the vaccination status in certain susceptible populations where self-reported vaccination data remain missing or impossible to obtain.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04702945; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04702945.

COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries

BACKGROUND

Global crises, regardless of the place where they started to spread or of the factors that triggered them, require a comprehensive approach, primarily based on good communication, cooperation and mutual support. No individual and no institution should remain indifferent to crises but, on the contrary, be fully aware that any involvement in curbing them matters. Although humanity can be affected by various types of crises, in this paper we refer to the one related to COVID-19 pandemic. There are certain reasons that come to justify our choice: first of all, being a shock with a strong impact on people, its analysis should be performed from several angles; this may bring to light an image with its disparate propagation and measures to counteract it both in developed countries, and especially in those with a shortage of resources. Secondly, in the context of the emergence of vaccines against COVID-19, it is helpful to have an overview of COVID-19 through the lens of the relationship between the vaccination process and the elements that characterize governance, with a differentiated dashboard by country categories worldwide: low, middle and high-income countries. Our study is far from capturing the complexity arising from such social problem, but rather aims to outline the defining role of governance when it comes to providing firm reactions to the COVID-19 crisis.

METHODS

Given that our sample consists of a large number of countries, namely 170, first, examined all together, and then, split into three groups (high, middle and low-income), it is challenging to address governance in association with COVID-19 vaccination, in order to see how much they interact and how each of the six aggregate governance indicators of the World Bank (Worldwide Governance Indicators) is reflected in this process. Even if they do not oscillate strongly over relatively short periods of time, reporting on health issues requires a sequential inventory, considering closer time intervals, so as to be able to act promptly. Thus, to better distinguish how the COVID-19 vaccination process evolved in low, middle and high-income countries, but also how it was imprinted by governance, we present the situation quarterly (March, June, September and December), in 2021, the year when the immunization campaigns were the most intense at the global level. Regarding the applied methods, we mention both OLS regressions with robust estimators and a panel model, used to investigate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination, some of them describing the good governance, as well as other dimensions.

RESULTS

The findings point out that the influence of governance on COVID-19 vaccination differs depending on whether a country belongs to high, middle or low-income typology: the strongest determinism of governance on vaccination is encountered in high-income countries, and the weakest in low-income ones; in some cases, governance does not matter significantly. However, exploring the three groups of states included in the research, it is observed that the most relevant factors in this relationship are government effectiveness, regulatory quality and control of corruption.

CONCLUSIONS

Besides the order of importance of governance indicators on COVID-19 vaccination, our study indicates that, overall, governance positively shapes the vaccination rate at the level of the chosen sample. In normative terms, these findings can be translated particularly by the fact that they can serve as information to raise awareness on the relevance of the existence of an institutional framework that allows the formulation of strategies according to the patterns of each country, especially since the actionable tools depend on the available resources. As a general conclusion, public policies should be designed in such a way as to strengthen trust in vaccination regulations and in governments, to reduce the multifaceted negative effects of this health crisis and to hope for its total end.

How containment policy and medical service impact COVID-19 transmission: A cross-national comparison among China, the USA, and Sweden

As COVID-19 shows a heterogeneous spreading process globally, investigating factors associated with COVID-19 spreading among different countries will provide information for containment strategy and medical service decisions. A significant challenge for analyzing how these factors impact COVID-19 transmission is assessing key epidemiological parameters and how they change under different containment strategies across different nations. This paper builds a COVID-19 spread simulation model to estimate the core COVID-19 epidemiological parameters. Then, the correlation between these core COVID-19 epidemiological parameters and the times of publicly announced interventions is analyzed, including three typical countries, China (strictly containment), the USA (moderately control), and Sweden (loose control). Results show that the recovery rate leads to a distinct COVID-19 transmission process in the three countries, as all three countries finally have similar and close to zero spreading rates in the third period of COVID-19 transmission. Then, an epidemic fundamental diagram between COVID-19 "active infections" and "current patients" is discovered, which could plan a country's COVID-19 medical capacity and containment strategies when combined with the COVID-19 spreading simulation model. Based on that, the hypothetical policies are proved effectively, which will give support for future infectious diseases.

High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies

Some countries in the presence of unforeseen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have experienced lower total deaths, though higher numbers of COVID-19 related infections. Results here suggest that one of the explanations is the critical role of ventilator technology in clinical health environment to cope with the initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Statistical evidence shows that a large number of ventilators or breathing devices in countries (26.76 units per 100,000 inhabitants) is associated with a fatality rate of 1.44% (December 2020), whereas a higher fatality rate given by 2.46% is in nations with lower numbers of ventilator devices (10.38 average units per 100,000 people). These findings suggest that a large number of medical ventilators in clinical setting has a high potential for more efficient healthcare and improves the effective preparedness of crisis management to cope with new respiratory pandemic diseases in society. Hence, a forward-thinking and technology-oriented strategy in healthcare sector, based on investments in high-tech ventilator devices and other new medical technologies, can help clinicians deliver effective care and reduce negative effects of present and future respiratory infectious diseases, in particular when new drugs and appropriate treatments are missing in clinical environment to face unknown respiratory viral agents .

Association of the corona virus (Covid-19) epidemic with environmental risk factors

The current outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus disease 2019; previously 2019-nCoV), epicenter in Hubei Province (Wuhan), People's Republic of China, has spread too many other countries. The transmission of the corona virus occurs when people are in the incubation stage and do not have any symptoms. Therefore, the role of environmental factors such as temperature and wind speed becomes very important. The study of Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) indicates that there is a significant relationship between temperature and virus transmission and three important factors, namely temperature, humidity and wind speed, cause SARS transmission. Daily data on the incidence and mortality of Covid-19 disease were collected from World Health Organization (WHO) website and World Meter website (WMW) for several major cities in Iran and the world. Data were collected from February 2020 to September 2021. Meteorological data including temperature, air pressure, wind speed, dew point and air quality index (AQI) index are extracted from the website of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Statistical analysis carried out for significance relationships. The correlation coefficient between the number of infected people in one day and the environmental variables in the countries was different from each other. The relationship between AQI and number of infected was significant in all cities. In Canberra, Madrid and Paris, a significant inverse relationship was observed between the number of infected people in one day and wind speed. There is a significant positive relationship between the number of infected people in a day and the dew point in the cities of Canberra, Wellington and Washington. The relationship between the number of infected people in one day and Pressure was significantly reversed in Madrid and Washington, but positive in Canberra, Brasilia, Paris and Wuhan. There was significant relationship between Dew point and prevalence. Wind speed showed a significant relationship in USA, Madrid and Paris. AQI was strongly associated with the prevalence of covid19. The purpose of this study is to investigate some environmental factors in the transmission of the corona virus.

What is the optimal country for minimum COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates?

The SARS-CoV-2 is a deceptive virus. Despite the remarkable progress in genetic sequencing and subsequent vaccine development, the world continues to grapple with the ominous threats of rapidly appearing SARS-CoV-2 variants. The objective of this manuscript is to rank world countries based on the anticipated scope of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, measured in terms of prevalence per 1 million persons, from the lowest to the highest. The ranking of 162 countries is based on predictions of empirical models, which include three explanatory variables: hospital beds per thousand persons, population density, and the median age of the country's population. Referring to the COVID-19 scope of morbidity, the lowest likelihood of infection is obtained in Niger and Mali, where the dominant characteristic is the young median age (15.1-16.4 years). Referring to the COVID-19 scope of mortality, the lowest likelihood is obtained in Singapore. For Singapore, the dominant feature is the high population density. The optimal solution is intensive vaccination campaigns in the initial phase of the pandemic, particularly among countries with low GDP per capita. Yet, vaccinations may work only where the personal immune system is healthy and thus respond by creating antibodies to the SARS-CoV2 virus. Referring to populations that lack the natural protection of the healthy immune system and thus cannot be vaccinated (e.g., old people, cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy treatments), a complementary solution might be coordination between countries and the establishment of field hospitals, testing laboratories, isolation of areas, humanitarian aid-in the same manner of treatment in other disasters like earthquakes.

Perception of the Lebanese Adults about Vaccination: A Survey

Introduction: With the continuous spread and emergence of transmissible diseases, focusing on preventive measures is essential to decrease their incidence and spread. In addition to behavioral measures, vaccination is an optimal way to protect the population and eradicate infectious diseases. The majority are aware of children’s vaccinations, while many might not know that adult vaccinations are also essential. Objectives: This study aims to understand the perception of Lebanese adults towards vaccination and their knowledge and awareness of its importance. This is a national cross-sectional study, conducted between January 2020 and January 2021. Results: the data were collected from 1023 subjects, the majority being Lebanese, previously healthy, and with a graduate or post-graduate level of education. Out of these participants, 44.9% were advised to take vaccines, half of them by healthcare workers. The most common vaccine received during adult life is the Flu vaccine. Overall, 25.6% of the participants were unaware that they needed vaccines and 27.9% thought it is not indicated. Participants’ knowledge about vaccination is variable. In total, 39.4% agree or are uncertain whether vaccines contain harmful chemicals and 48.4% believe that vaccines will trigger diseases. The level of education and occupation significantly enhances knowledge about vaccination. Some participants 27.3% are concerned about the vaccine’s side effects. The group of young participants, graduates, and nonsmokers think that the vaccine is a necessity and had a positive attitude towards vaccination. Conclusions: Many Lebanese lack knowledge about adult vaccination protection and its benefits in the community. It is essential that the country’s health ministry department collaborate with the healthcare system to launch awareness campaigns about adult vaccination in the country to overcome the barriers and ensure better coverage.