Changing trends in the air pollution-related disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and its predicted level in 25 years

Air pollutions affect restaurant and foodservice industry in China

This study examines the impact of air pollution on food away from home (FAFH) consumption in 52 cities across 20 provinces of China, focusing on expenditures for online food delivery (online FAFH) and dine-in restaurants (offline FAFH). Using unique daily aggregated city-level consumption data linked with hourly air quality data, we employ both semiparametric and parametric models to uncover a positive relationship between PM2.5 levels and online FAFH, contrasted by a significantly negative relationship with offline FAFH. Our analysis reveals that shifts in consumer demand for food services on polluted days, coupled with changes in urban mobility patterns, contribute to these outcomes. We also detect temporal variations based on meal type, enhancing our understanding of how air pollution influences food consumption behavior. The findings indicate that increased PM2.5 levels lead to a net loss in restaurant revenue, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and an increase in plastic waste. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the multifaceted impacts of air pollution on FAFH and corresponding economy and environmental implications.

Effects of ambient fine particulate matter on the exacerbation of psychiatric disorders in southern Taiwan: a case-crossover study

This study investigated the impact of short-term exposures to ambient fine particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) on the exacerbation of psychiatric disorders (PDs) in southern Taiwan between 2014 and 2020. Data on emergency room visits (ERVs) for PDs and air pollutant levels were obtained from the Chang Gung Research Database and the Environmental Protection Administration, respectively. A time-stratified case-crossover design was adopted to estimate the risks of ERVs for PDs. At lag4 days, a 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with significant increases in ERVs in both single- and multi-pollutant models, with odds ratio (OR) of 1.18 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.00, 1.38] (PM2.5), 1.20 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.43) (PM2.5 + SO2), 1.23 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.46) (PM2.5 + O3), and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.52) (PM2.5 + SO2 + O3). For cumulative lags (lag0-6), a 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with significant increases in ERVs only for multi-pollutant model (PM2.5 + SO2), with OR of 1.41 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.93). Among males, significant increases in ERVs were observed at lag4 and lag0-6 days; however, no significant associations were observed in females. In conclusion, short-term exposure to PM2.5 increased the risk of PDs exacerbation, exhibiting both delayed and cumulative effects, with male patients found to be more sensitive.

Analysis of global trends in acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children aged 0-5 years from 1990 to 2021

Background

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common pediatric cancer, with a significant global burden. This study evaluates global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of childhood ALL from 1990 to 2021, providing insights into disparities and progress across different socio-demographic and geographic contexts.

Methods

Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease study. Trends in prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were analyzed by socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, geographic areas, and countries. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to quantify temporal trends.

Findings

Between 1990 and 2021, the global number of childhood ALL cases increased by 59.06%, reaching 168,879 cases in 2021, while ALL-related deaths and DALYs decreased by 66.71% and 66.13%, respectively. High- and high-middle SDI regions demonstrated significant improvements, driven by advances in healthcare and early diagnosis. In contrast, low-SDI regions faced persistent challenges, with a slight increase in DALYs observed in 2021. Geographic disparities were pronounced, with East Asia achieving the largest reductions in mortality and DALYs, whereas Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean remained heavily burdened.

Interpretation

Despite progress in reducing mortality and DALYs globally, the rising prevalence of ALL and persistent disparities in low-SDI regions highlight the urgent need for equitable access to healthcare, early diagnosis, and effective treatment strategies. Strengthening healthcare infrastructure and fostering global collaboration are critical to further mitigating the burden of childhood ALL and ensuring equitable outcomes worldwide.

Examining the dietary contributions of lipids to pancreatic cancer burden (1990-2021): incidence trends and future projections

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer (PC) ranks sixth globally among cancer deaths, imposing a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide. Although diet is known to be a major risk factor, Although diet is a well-established risk factor for PC, the precise dietary components linked to the disease remain inconclusive, with studies showing varying results across different populations and regions. This study addresses this gap through a comprehensive analysis of PC incidence trends from 1990 to 2021, with a specific focus on associations with age, dietary patterns, and socio-demographic determinants.

METHODS

The data utilized in this study were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results database, updated on May 16, 2024. Unlike traditional single-variable correlation analyses, a Bayesian generalized linear model was applied to assess the association between food intake and disease incidence during the period 1990-2021. To account for variations related to year and region, these variables were incorporated as covariates in the model, allowing for a more nuanced and comprehensive analysis of the background factors. Finally, the "BAPC" package was employed to project age-standardized incidence rates of PC through the year 2051.

RESULTS

The global incidence of PC increased from 3.90 per 100,000 people (95% CI: 3.69, 4.08) in 1990 to 6.44 per 100,000 (95% CI: 5.86, 6.93) in 2021. The analysis revealed significant associations between PC incidence and the intake of nuts, omega-3 fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), trans fats, dietary sodium, and calcium. In typical countries, higher intake of nuts and PUFA was associated with a reduced incidence of PC, while trans fats were positively correlated with increased incidence. The age-standardized Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) prediction indicates that the incidence rates of PC will show a downward trend after 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence of PC exhibited a rapid upward trend, suggesting an increasing global healthcare burden. The findings of this study suggest that dietary lipid intake is significantly associated with PC incidence at a global level. This finding underscores the importance of dietary fat composition, particularly in the context of pancreatic cancer prevention, suggesting that individuals should pay attention to the types and sources of fats in their diets to mitigate disease risk.

Socio-demographic disparities in global trends of lip and oral cavity neoplasms from 1990 to 2021

Oral cancer, the 13th most common globally, is primarily squamous cell carcinoma linked to tobacco, alcohol, and HPV. Despite advances in care, it remains a major health concern due to high mortality and its impact on quality of life. This study analyzed socio-demographic disparities in oral cancer burden using data from 1990 to 2021. We analyzed annual incidence, mortality, and DALYs across 204 countries, using age-standardized rates and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) to assess development-related impacts. Statistical methods included Kruskal-Wallis tests, linear regression, joinpoint regression for trends, and Exponential Smoothing for forecasts (2022-2030), with analyses conducted in STATA and Python, and p < 0.05 as significant. Incidence was highest in high SDI countries, while mortality and DALYs were highest in low and middle SDI countries (p < 0.001). From 1990 to 2021, incidence increased (AAPC: 0.5-1.0%), while mortality (APC: - 0.5%) and DALYs (APC: - 0.6%) declined in low SDI regions. Significant disparities across SDI categories (p < 0.001) showed incidence rising with socio-demographic development (R2 = 0.102, p < 0.001), with high-middle SDI regions bearing the highest mortality and DALYs. These findings highlight the need for awareness, prevention, early detection, and accessible care, especially in lower SDI regions.

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV and tuberculosis and predictions by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

Objective

To assess sex, age, regional differences, and the changing trend in human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis (HIV-TB) in different regions from 1990 to 2021, and project future trends.

Methods

Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data were analyzed to assess HIV-TB incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2021, including different types of TB co-infections (drug-susceptible, multidrug-resistant, and extensively drug-resistant). Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to forecast age-standardized DALY rates through 2035.

Results

In 2021, there were approximately 1.76 million HIV-TB infections and 200,895 deaths globally. The highest burden of HIV-DS-TB and HIV-MDR-TB was found in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, while HIV-XDR-TB was most prevalent in Eastern Europe. The co-infection burden was highest among individuals aged 30-49. Key risk factors were unsafe sex, drug use, and intimate partner violence, with regional variations. The global burden of HIV-TB remains high, and age-standardized DALY rates are expected to increase in the coming years, especially in regions with low socio-demographic indices (SDI).

Conclusion

The burden of HIV-TB co-infection correlates with the socio-demographic index (SDI): countries with a low SDI have a higher burden. Therefore, clinical diagnosis and treatment in such areas are more challenging and may warrant more attention. High death rates underscore the importance of early management.

A Breath of Trouble: Unraveling the Impact of Air Pollution on Atrial Fibrillation

Air pollution is a pervasive global challenge with profound implications for public health. This review explores the intricate relationship between air pollution and atrial fibrillation (AF), a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Drawing on a comprehensive analysis of the existing literature, this review synthesizes current evidence linking various air pollutants, including particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide, to the development and exacerbation of AF. The review delves into the role of air pollution as a global health issue alongside its specific sources, such as traffic-related emissions and industrial pollutants. It also examines the underlying mechanisms through which air pollution may contribute to the pathogenesis of AF, encompassing oxidative stress, inflammation, and autonomic nervous system dysregulation. In addition, it explores the impact of individual pollutants and the results of meta-analyses. It considers the results of vulnerable populations, including sex differences between the individuals and those with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions, who may be disproportionately affected. We also address critical research gaps in this area. Overall, air pollution has been increasingly recognized as a significant trigger for AF, with evidence linking exposure to particulate matter and gaseous pollutants to an increased incidence in short- as well as long-term exposure, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions and further research to mitigate its cardiovascular impact.

Global trends and projections of occupational trichloroethylene (TCE) exposure-associated kidney cancer: Insights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2050

BACKGROUND

Exposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) in occupations is associated with an increased risk of kidney cancer (KC). However, there is a lack of comprehensive study on the global burden of occupational exposure to TCE-related KC.

METHODS

Epidemiological data on occupational TCE exposure-associated KC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, including death counts and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Global burden of this disease was stratified by genders, age, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, GBD subcontinental regions, and countries. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to illustrate trends over the last 32 years, and forecasts were conducted to predict the disease burden until 2050.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of occupational TCE exposure-related KC was 0.0009 (95 %UI: 0.0002-0.0016) per 100,000 persons, and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDAR) was 0.0284 (95 %UI: 0.0062-0.0522) per 100,000 individuals. The disease showed significant heterogeneity by sex and age, with males bearing a notably higher burden, and the burden being concentrated in the 50-79 year-old group. Major burdens were focused in middle to high-middle SDI regions, especially in Southern Latin America (Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile). Over 32 years, the burden of occupational TCE exposure-associated KC has gradually increased, with projections indicating continued growth to 2050, particularly among males and individuals aged 50-79. Regions like high-middle SDI areas, North America, High-income North America, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, saw the most significant increases. Correlation analyses indicated a positive association between ASDR and ASDAR with SDI, while EAPC showed a notable negative correlation with SDI. Decomposition analyses reveals three global population determinants that positively contributed to the increase in deaths, but negatively impacted DALYs.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights a significant rising trend of occupational TCE exposure-associated KC from 1990 to 2021 and projected to 2050, with an emphasis on the disease burden in men, elderly population, and middle to high-middle SDI regions, underscoring the impact of occupational TCE exposure on KC.

Understanding the relationship between land use/land cover changes and air quality: A GIS-based fuzzy inference system approach

Air pollution is a global issue that demands urgent attention due to its detrimental effects on human health and the environment. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change is an essential factor that significantly impacts ambient air quality through alterations in emission sources, vegetation cover, natural processes, and urban design. This study investigates the spatio-temporal variation of key air pollutants resulting from urban LULC changes in the Delhi region. Findings reveal a notable increase in pollutant concentrations, particularly particulate matter, in 2019 (PM10: 318.65 ± 45.80 µg/m3) and 2023 (PM10: 383.70 ± 61.49 µg/m3), compared to 2008 (PM10: 246.76 ± 30.66). LULC change analysis demonstrates a rise in built-up areas 24.59%(2008 to 2019), 33.62% (2008 to 2023) and a decline in vegetation cover 27.49% (2008 to 2019),32.37% (2008 to 2023). Correlation analysis indicates a positive correlation between PM10 and urban indices (+ 0.63) and a negative correlation between PM10 and vegetation indices (- 0.61), highlighting the impact of LULC on air quality deterioration. Subsequently, a fuzzy inference system model integrates LULC information to develop an air quality index (AQI). Incorporating LULC changes in AQI assessment offers a realistic approach to address the complexity arising from combined air pollutant effects, surpassing conventional AQI calculation methods. The findings underscore the significance of understanding the impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change on ambient air quality in formulating effective air quality management programs and policies. Integrating this knowledge into policymaking is crucial for the successful abatement of air pollution in urbanized areas.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Brain and Central Nervous System Cancers for Males from 1990 to 2021 and Its Predicted Level in the Next 25 Years

BACKGROUND

A study of the global burden of cerebral and central nervous system (CNS) cancers from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) indicates that these cancers significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality internationally. To fully understand the global impact of CNS cancer, expanded research efforts are essential. We analyzed the temporal trend of the disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and made projections for the expected burden from 2020 through 2044.

METHODS

We tapped into GBD 2021 Study data to evaluate CNS cancer incidence and trends among males. Prevalence was assessed with DisMod-MR, trends via cluster analysis, and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculated via linear regression. Forecasts for 2022-2044 used APC and BAPC models, with a p value <0.05 considered significant. Analyses relied on R software 4.0.2.

RESULTS

In 2021, males experienced between 148,118 and 232,469 new brain and CNS cancer cases, indicating increased global burden from 1990 to 2021. An observed link between the prevalence's EAPCs and Human Development Indices (HDIs) suggests higher incidence in more developed regions. Projections using the APC model suggest rising numbers of cases and losses in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2044, while age-standardized rates are expected to decrease overall.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, a higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) correlates with better outcomes for CNS cancer due to early medical interventions in regions with strong healthcare systems. This demonstrates the need for equitable healthcare policies that focus on improving diagnostic capabilities and professional training to enhance survival rates universally.

PMFORECAST: leveraging temporal LSTM to deliver in situ air quality predictions

The physical and chemical properties of atmospheric aerosol particles are crucial in influencing global climate and ecosystem processes. Given the numerous studies highlighting adverse health effects from exposure to aerosol particulates, particularly Particulate Matter (PM), effective air quality management strategies are under consideration  (Annesi-Maesano et al. Eur Respir Soc 29(3):428-431. 2007). Herein, we introduce a predictive model-PMFORECAST-employing a self-adaptive long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture to predict PM2.5 values in the real atmosphere. Specifically, we explore adopting a LSTM model to better benefit from temporal dimensions. PMFORECAST is strategically designed with four key phases: preprocessing, temporal attention, prediction horizon, and LSTM layers. By leveraging LSTM's significant predictive ability in time-series data, the inclusion of temporal attention enhances the model's specificity. Temporal dynamics modeling entails generating insights over time, utilizing temporal attention to extract essential characteristics from historical air pollutant concentrations, with the flexibility to adjust the historical data according to the forecasting period. To assess PMFORECAST, we consider measurements collected from the QAMELEO network, a sparse network of air-quality micro-stations deployed in Dijon, France. The self-adaptive capabilities of PMFORECAST allow the model to be dynamically updated, evaluating its performance and continuously tuning hyper-parameters based on the latest data trends. Our empirical evaluation reports that PMFORECAST outperforms the state of the art, achieving notable accuracy in both short-term and long-term predictions. The PMFORECAST deployment at scale can serve as a valuable tool for proactive decision-making and targeted interventions to mitigate the health risks associated with air pollution.

Differentiated impacts of short-term exposure to fine particulate constituents on infectious diseases in 507 cities of Chinese children and adolescents: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study from 2008 to 2021

This study assesses the association of short-term exposure to PM2.5 (particles ≤2.5 μm) on infectious diseases among Chinese children and adolescents. Analyzing data from 507 cities (2008-2021) on 42 diseases, it focuses on PM2.5 components (black carbon (BC), ammonium (NH4+), inorganic nitrate (NO3-), organic matter (OM), and sulfate (SO42-)). PM2.5 constituents significantly associated with incidence. Sulfate showed the most substantial effect, increasing all-cause infectious disease risk by 2.72 % per interquartile range (IQR) increase. It was followed by BC (2.04 % increase), OM (1.70 %), NO3- (1.67 %), and NH4+ (0.79 %). Specifically, sulfate and BC had pronounced impacts on respiratory diseases, with sulfate linked to a 10.73 % increase in seasonal influenza risk and NO3- to a 16.39 % rise in tuberculosis. Exposure to PM2.5 also marginally increased risks for gastrointestinal, enterovirus, and vectorborne diseases like dengue (7.46 % increase with SO42-). Sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseases saw an approximate 6.26 % increase in incidence, with specific constituents linked to diseases like hepatitis C and syphilis. The study concludes that managing PM2.5 levels could substantially reduce infectious disease incidence, particularly in China's middle-northern regions. It highlights the necessity of stringent air quality standards and targeted disease prevention, aligning PM2.5 management with international guidelines for public health protection.

Elossaily G, Vellapandian C, Prajapati B. Investigating the Potential Impact of Air Pollution on Alzheimer's Disease and the Utility of Multidimensional Imaging for Early Detection

Pollution is ubiquitous, and much of it is anthropogenic in nature, which is a severe risk factor not only for respiratory infections or asthma sufferers but also for Alzheimer's disease, which has received a lot of attention recently. This Review aims to investigate the primary environmental risk factors and their profound impact on Alzheimer's disease. It underscores the pivotal role of multidimensional imaging in early disease identification and prevention. Conducting a comprehensive review, we delved into a plethora of literature sources available through esteemed databases, including Science Direct, Google Scholar, Scopus, Cochrane, and PubMed. Our search strategy incorporated keywords such as "Alzheimer Disease", "Alzheimer's", "Dementia", "Oxidative Stress", and "Phytotherapy" in conjunction with "Criteria Pollutants", "Imaging", "Pathology", and "Particulate Matter". Alzheimer's disease is not only a result of complex biological factors but is exacerbated by the infiltration of airborne particles and gases that surreptitiously breach the nasal defenses to traverse the brain, akin to a Trojan horse. Various imaging modalities and noninvasive techniques have been harnessed to identify disease progression in its incipient stages. However, each imaging approach possesses inherent limitations, prompting exploration of a unified technique under a single umbrella. Multidimensional imaging stands as the linchpin for detecting and forestalling the relentless march of Alzheimer's disease. Given the intricate etiology of the condition, identifying a prospective candidate for Alzheimer's disease may take decades, rendering the development of a multimodal imaging technique an imperative. This research underscores the pressing need to recognize the chronic ramifications of invisible particulate matter and to advance our understanding of the insidious environmental factors that contribute to Alzheimer's disease.

Disease burden of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019: a comparative study based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

We hope to reveal the changing trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden attributable to particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) and its age, period and cohort effects in China, Japan and Korea.

DESIGN

We analysed the trend of COPD disease burden attributable to PM2.5 from 1990 to 2019 based on the latest Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD 2019) using JoinPoint model and analysed the effect of age, period and cohort on COPD burden attributable to PM2.5 in China, Japan and Korea from 1990 to 2019 using age-period-cohort model (model).

SETTING

GBD data from 1990 to 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were publicly available and individuals were not involved.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Outcomes included the age standardised mortality rate (ASMR), the age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY), average annual per cent change (AAPC), net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, period (cohort) rate ratios, age (period, cohort) bias coefficient.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China (AAPC=-5.862), Japan (AAPC=-1.715) and Korea (AAPC=-1.831) showed a downward trend. The age-standardised DALY of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China (AAPC=-5.821), Japan (AAPC=-1.39) and Korea (AAPC=-1.239) showed a downward trend. Mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 increased slowly with age in Korea and Japan. Mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 in China decreased after rising (95% CI: 404.66 to 466.01). Mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 decreased over time in China and Korea, while it increased in Japan from 2015 to 2019. In China and Japan, mortality of COPD attributable to PM2.5 was approximately lower the later the birth, while in Korea it decreased after an increase (95% CI: 2.13 to 2.40) in the 1900-1910.

CONCLUSIONS

Most COPD burden attributable to PM2.5 is on the decline; COPD mortality attributable to PM2.5 both increased with age and decreased with time and cohort. Countries with high burden should develop targeted measures to control PM2.5.

Disease Burden and Prediction Analysis of Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung Cancer Attributable to Residential Radon, Solid Fuels, and Particulate Matter Pollution Under Different Sociodemographic Transitions From 1990 to 2030

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the impact of epidemiologic and sociodemographic changes in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer associated with residential radon, solid fuels, and particulate matter.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What are the influencing factors of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer disease burden attributable to the three pollutants?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and sociodemographic index (SDI) values were collected from 21 regions, and restricted cubic splines and quantile regression were used to investigate the relationship between ASMR or age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and SDI. Additionally, five countries with different SDIs were selected, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the ASMR trends from 2020 to 2030.

RESULTS

High SDI quintiles were associated with increased residential radon pollution. The disease burden attributed to these three pollutants was particularly severe in the middle SDI quintiles. Older adults aged 80 to 89 years had the highest age-specific mortality, and the disease burden was greater in male patients than in female patients with these cancers attributed to the pollutants. The highest ASMR attributable to particulate matter when the SDI was 0.7. As the SDI increased, the disease burden caused by radon increased, whereas the burden caused by solid fuels decreased. Projections have indicated a rise in the death burden in patients with this cancer from particulate pollution in China, India, and Uganda over the next decade.

INTERPRETATION

The disease burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer attributed to the three pollutants was influenced by SDI, sex, and age. Older men are more susceptible to be affected. More preventive interventions may be required for men at younger ages to reduce the high death burden of older men. However, it is necessary to give due attention to women in specific countries in the future.

Dynamic association of ambient air pollution with incidence and mortality of pulmonary hypertension: A multistate trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

There is little evidence regarding the association between ambient air pollution and incidence and the mortality of pulmonary hypertension (PH).

METHODS

We included 494,750 participants at baseline in the UK Biobank study. Exposures to PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and NOx were estimated at geocoded participants' residential addresses, utilizing pollution data provided by UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The outcomes were the incidence and mortality of PH. We used multivariate multistate models to investigate the impacts of various ambient air pollutants on both incidence and mortality of PH.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.75 years, 2517 participants developed incident PH, and 696 died. We observed that all ambient air pollutants were associated with increased incidence of PH with different magnitudes, with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence intervals (95% CIs)] for each interquartile range (IQR) increase of 1.73 (1.65, 1.81) for PM2.5, 1.70 (1.63, 1.78) for PM10, 1.42 (1.37, 1.48) for NO2, and 1.35 (1.31, 1.40) for NOx. Furthermore, PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and NO2 influenced the transition from PH to death, and the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.35 (1.25, 1.45), 1.31 (1.21, 1.41), 1.28 (1.20, 1.37) and 1.24 (1.17, 1.32), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The results of our study indicate that exposure to various ambient air pollutants might play key but differential roles in both the incidence and mortality of PH.