Tipping points in the arctic: eyeballing or statistical significance?

An early warning signal for grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Intense grazing may lead to grassland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, but it is difficult to predict where this will occur and to quantify it. Based on a process-based ecosystem model, we define a productivity-based stocking rate threshold that induces extreme grassland degradation to assess whether and where the current grazing activity in the region is sustainable. We find that the current stocking rate is below the threshold in ~80% of grassland areas, but in 55% of these grasslands the stocking rate exceeds half the threshold. According to our model projections, positive effects of climate change including elevated CO2 can partly offset negative effects of grazing across nearly 70% of grasslands on the Plateau, but only in areas below the stocking rate threshold. Our analysis suggests that stocking rate that does not exceed 60% (within 50% to 70%) of the threshold may balance human demands with grassland protection in the face of climate change.

Contrasting Marine Microbial Communities of the Fram Strait with the First Confirmed Record of Cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus marinus in the Arctic Region

The seawater microbiome is crucial in marine ecosystems because of its role in food chains and biogeochemical cycles; thus, we studied the composition of the pelagic marine microbiome collected in the upper 50 m on the opposite sides of Fram Strait: Spitsbergen and Greenland shelves. We found out that it differed significantly, with salinity being the main environmental variable responsible for these differences. The Spitsbergen shelf was dominated by Atlantic Waters, with a rather homogenous water column in terms of salinity and temperature down to 300 m; hence, the marine microbial community was also homogenous at all sampled depths (0, 25, 50 m). On the contrary, stations on the Greenland shelf were exposed to different water masses of both Arctic and Atlantic origin, which resulted in a more diverse microbial community there. Unexpectedly, for the very first time, we identified cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus marinus in Arctic waters (Spitsbergen shelf, 75-77° N). Till now, the distribution of this cyanobacteria in oceans has been described only between 40° N and 40° S. Considering the accelerated rate of climate warming in the Arctic, our results indicated that the seawater microbiome can be viewed as an amplifier of global change and that the Atlantification is in progress.

Evidence of a rapid phosphorus-induced regime shift in a large deep reservoir

Ecological regime shift studies in freshwater systems are mainly limited to shallow lakes and reservoirs, while abrupt changes in deeper lakes are often attributed to climate change. Here, we demonstrate the application of regime shift theory to one of California's newest and deepest reservoirs, Diamond Valley Lake (DVL), which in recent years showed an unexpected rapid departure from its water quality conditions of the previous decade. The reservoir shifted from a well oxygenated condition with low phytoplankton growth to a hypoxic, phytoplankton-dominated turbid system. We statistically identified the critical stressor (phosphorus (P)), switch points, and its load threshold and characterized its transition to an alternative stable state and the stabilizing mechanisms contributing to hysteresis. We analyzed long-term environmental, chemical and flow data, conducted a hydrographic survey, and developed a hydrodynamic model to characterize the factors that contributed to regime shift and to evaluate different management strategies that might reverse this shift. Our findings indicate that large deep systems exhibit different transition dynamics in the presence of an acute stressor compared to regime shifts in shallow systems. A cumulative external TP load threshold of 4.6 mg m^-2 d^-1 added to the reservoir over nearly 11 months was identified as the critical stressor. For large deep systems, inherent morphometric features such as large relative depth combine with external stressors to drive regime shifts. Light winds, morphometric conditions impeding deep mixing, and a stable stratification that lasts up to 9 months makes DVL more susceptible to hypolimnetic hypoxia, an intrinsic factor accelerating regime shift. Results also suggest regime shift occurred in 2013, when new limnological processes were established to reinforce the new alternative stable state and existing ecosystem services were impaired. Interactions between hypoxia, internal P loading (~2.1 mg m^-2 d^-1), and seasonal cyanobacterial blooms were identified as mechanisms perpetuating the new alternative state.

Keystone taxa of water microbiome respond to environmental quality and predict water contamination

The human activity introduces strong environmental stresses, and results in great spatiotemporal heterogeneity for the environment. Although the effects of environmental factors on the microbial diversity and succession have been widely studied, knowledge about how keystone taxa respond to environmental stresses remains poorly understood. We examined bacterial and archaeal communities from 45 wetland ponds covering a wide range of waters in Hangzhou. We found that shifts in bacterial and archaeal communities were strongly correlated with water pollution as indicated by the comprehensive water quality identification (CWQI). The SEGMENTED analysis suggested that there were non-linear responses of microbial communities and keystone taxa to the water pollution gradient. Moreover, these significant tipping points (e.g., CWQI > 4.0) would afford a warning line for urban wetland management. Notably, keystone taxa of bacterial communities could be used to successfully (~88.9% accuracy) predict water contamination levels. This study provides new insights into the potential for keystone bacterial taxa to predict water contamination.

Social tipping points in animal societies in response to heat stress

Living systems sometimes experience abrupt tipping points in response to stress. Here we investigate the factors contributing to the appearance of such abrupt state transitions in animal societies. We first construct a mathematical account of how the personality compositions of societies could alter their propensity to shift from calm to violent states in response to thermal stress. To evaluate our model, we subjected experimental societies of the spider Anelosimus studiosus to heat stress. We demonstrate that both colony size and personality composition influence the timing of and recoverability from sudden transitions in social state. Groups composed of aggressive personalities transitioned into violent within-group dynamics sooner during heating, and also resisted recovery to baseline non-aggressive behaviour during cooling. We further observed hysteresis in groups composed of aggressive individuals, where group behaviour depended strongly on whether the colony had previously been in a calm or agitated state. These results demonstrate that a society's susceptibility to sudden state shifts and their recoverability from them can be driven by the personalities of their constituents.

Warming of Subarctic waters accelerates development of a key marine zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus

Recent observations confirm the rising temperatures of Atlantic waters transported into the Arctic Ocean via the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). We studied the overall abundance and population structure of the North Atlantic keystone zooplankton copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which is the main prey for pelagic fish and some seabirds, in relation to selected environmental variables in this area between 2001 and 2011, when warming in the Arctic and Subarctic was particularly pronounced. Sampling within a 3-week time window each summer demonstrated that trends in the overall abundance of C. finmarchicus varied between years, with the highest values in "extreme" years, due to high numbers of nauplii and early copepodite stages in colder years (2001, 2004, 2010), and contrary to that, the fifth copepodite stage (C5) peaking in warm years (2006, 2007, 2009). The most influential environmental variable driving C. finmarchicus life cycle was temperature, which promoted an increased C5 abundance when the temperature was above 6°C, indicating earlier spawning and/or accelerated development, and possibly leading to their development to adults later in the summer and spawning for the second time, given adequate food supply. Based on the presented high interannual and spatial variability, we hypothesize that under a warmer climate, C. finmarchicus may annually produce two generations in the southern part of the WSC, what in turn could lead to food web reorganization of important top predators, such as little auks, and induce northward migrations of fish, especially the Norwegian herring.

Could Have Gone Wrong: Effects of Abrupt Changes in Migratory Behaviour on Harvest in a Waterbird Population

To sustainably exploit a population, it is crucial to understand and reduce uncertainties about population processes and effects of harvest. In migratory species, management is challenged by geographically separated changing environmental conditions, which may cause unexpected changes in species distribution and harvest. We describe the development in the harvest of Svalbard-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in relation to the observed trajectory and migratory behaviour of the population. In autumn, geese migrate via stopover sites in Norway and Denmark (where they are hunted) to wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Belgium (where they are protected). In Denmark and Norway harvesting increased stepwise during the 2000s. The increase in the population size only partly explained the change. The change corresponded to a simultaneous stepwise increase in numbers of geese staging in Denmark throughout autumn and winter; geese also moved further inland to feed which collectively increased their exposure to hunting. In Norway the increase in harvest reflected greater utilisation of lowland farmland areas by geese, increasing their hunting exposure. The study demonstrates how changes in migratory behaviour can abruptly affect exposure to hunting, which showed a functional response to increased temporal and spatial availability of geese. The harvest has now reached a level likely to cause a population decline. It highlights the need for flexible, internationally coordinated hunting regulations and reliable up-to-date population estimates and hunting bag statistics, which are rare in European management of migratory waterbirds. Without such information decisions are left with judgments based on population estimates, which often have time lags of several years between recording and reporting, hampering possibilities for the timely adjustment of management actions.

Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

Arctic tipping points in an Earth system perspective

We provide an introduction to the volume The Arctic in the Earth System perspective: the role of tipping points. The terms tipping point and tipping element are described and their role in current science, general debates, and the Arctic are elucidated. From a wider perspective, the volume focuses upon the role of humans in the Arctic component of the Earth system and in particular the envelope for human existence, the Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic climate tipping elements, the tipping elements in Arctic ecosystems and societies, and the challenges of governance and anticipation are illuminated through short summaries of eight publications that derive from the Arctic Frontiers conference in 2011 and the EU FP7 project Arctic Tipping Points. Then some ideas based upon resilience thinking are developed to show how wise system management could ease pressures on Arctic systems in order to keep them away from tipping points.