Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem

Response of Arctic benthic foraminiferal traits to past environmental changes

The Arctic is subjected to all-encompassing disruptions in marine ecosystems caused by anthropogenic warming. To provide reliable estimates of how future changes will affect the ecosystems, knowledge of Arctic marine ecosystem responses to past environmental variability beyond the instrumental era is essential. Here, we present a novel approach on how to evaluate the state of benthic marine biotic conditions during the deglacial and Holocene period on the Northeast Greenland shelf. Benthic foraminiferal species were assigned traits (e.g., oxygen tolerance, food preferences) aiming to identify past faunal changes as a response to external forcing mechanisms. This approach was applied on sediment cores from offshore Northeast Greenland. We performed numerical rate-of-change detection to determine significant changes in the benthic foraminiferal traits. That way, the significant abrupt trait changes can be assessed across sites, providing a better understanding of the impact of climate drivers on the traits. Our results demonstrate that during the last ~ 14,000 years, bottom water oxygen is the main factor affecting the variability in the benthic foraminiferal faunas in this area. Our results show that significant changes in the traits correspond to drastic climate perturbations. Specifically, the deglacial-Holocene transition and mid-Holocene warm period exhibited significant change, with several trait turnovers.

Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modeling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected polar bears around Greenland. We uncover reductions in effective population size coinciding with increases in annual mean sea surface temperature, reduction in sea ice cover, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northward. Furthermore, we show that west and east Greenlandic polar bears are morphologically, and ecologically distinct, putatively driven by regional biotic and genetic differences. Together, we provide insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants.

Ecological impacts of climate change on Arctic marine megafauna

Global warming affects the Arctic more than any other region. Mass media constantly relay apocalyptic visions of climate change threatening Arctic wildlife, especially emblematic megafauna such as polar bears, whales, and seabirds. Yet, we are just beginning to understand such ecological impacts on marine megafauna at the scale of the Arctic. This knowledge is geographically and taxonomically biased, with striking deficiencies in the Russian Arctic and strong focus on exploited species such as cod. Beyond a synthesis of scientific advances in the past 5 years, we provide ten key questions to be addressed by future work and outline the requested methodology. This framework builds upon long-term Arctic monitoring inclusive of local communities whilst capitalising on high-tech and big data approaches.

Impacts of global warming on marine microbial communities

Global warming in ocean ecosystems alters temperature, acidification, oxygen content, circulation, stratification, and nutrient inputs. Microorganisms play a dominant role in global biogeochemical cycles crucial for a planet's sustainability. Since microbial communities are highly dependent on the temperature factor, fluctuations in the same will lead to adverse effects on the microbial community organization. Throughout the Ocean, increase in evaporation rates causes the surface mixed layer to become shallower. This intensified stratification inhibits vertical transport of nutrient supplies. Such density driven processes will decrease oxygen solubility in surface waters leading to significant decrease of oxygen from future Ocean. Metabolism and diversity of microbes along with ocean biogeochemistry will be at great risk due to global warming and its related effects. As a response to the changes in temperature, alteration in the distribution of phytoplankta communities is observed all over the planet, creating changes in the primary production of the ocean causing massive impact on the biosphere. Marine microbial communities try to adapt to the changing ocean environmental conditions by responding with biogeographic range shifts, community structure modifications, and adaptive evolution. Persistence of this climate change on ocean ecosystems, in future, will pose serious threat to the metabolism and distribution of marine microbes leading to fluctuations in the biogeochemical cycles thereby affecting the overall ecosystem functioning. Genomics plays an important role in marine microbial research by providing tools to study the association between environment and organisms. The ecological and genomic perspectives of marine microbes are being investigated to design effective models to understand their physiology and evolution in a changing ocean. Mesocosm/microcosm experimental studies and field studies are in the need of the hour to evaluate the impact of climate shifts on microbial genesis.

Functional Associations and Resilience in Microbial Communities

Microbial communities have inherently high levels of metabolic flexibility and functional redundancy, yet the structure of microbial communities can change rapidly with environmental perturbation. To understand whether such changes observed at the taxonomic level translate into differences at the functional level, we analyzed the structure of taxonomic and functional gene distribution across Arctic and Antarctic locations. Taxonomic diversity (in terms of alpha diversity and species richness) differed significantly with location. However, we found that functional genes distributed evenly across bacterial networks and that this functional distribution was also even across different geographic locations. For example, on average 15% of the functional genes were related to carbon cycling across all bacterial networks, slightly over 21% of the genes were stress-related and only 0.5% of the genes were linked to carbon degradation functions. In such a distribution, each bacterial network includes all of the functional groups distributed following the same proportions. However, the total number of functional genes that is included in each bacterial network differs, with some clusters including many more genes than others. We found that the proportion of times a specific gene must occur to be linked to a specific cluster is 8%, meaning the relationship between the total number of genes in the cluster and the number of genes per function follows a linear pattern: smaller clusters require a gene to appear less frequently to get fixed within the cluster, while larger clusters require higher gene frequencies. We suggest that this mechanism of functional association between equally rare or equally abundant genes could have implications for ecological resilience, as non-dominant genes also associate in fully functioning ecological networks, potentially suggesting that there are always pre-existing functional networks available to exploit new ecological niches (where they can become dominant) as they emerge; for example, in the case of rapid or sudden environmental change. Furthermore, this pattern did not correlate with taxonomic distribution, suggesting that bacteria associate based on functionality and this is independent of its taxonomic position. Our analyses based on ecological networks also showed no clear evidence of recent environmental impact on polar marine microbial communities at the functional level, unless all communities analyzed have changed exactly in the same direction and intensity, which is unlikely given we are comparing areas changing at different rates.

Global and Arctic climate sensitivity enhanced by changes in North Pacific heat flux

Arctic amplification is a consequence of surface albedo, cloud, and temperature feedbacks, as well as poleward oceanic and atmospheric heat transport. However, the relative impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns and ocean heat flux sourced from different regions on Arctic temperatures are not well constrained. We modify ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic in a climate model to determine the sensitivity of Arctic temperatures to zonal heterogeneities in northern hemisphere SST patterns. Both positive and negative ocean heat flux perturbations from the North Pacific result in greater global and Arctic surface air temperature anomalies than equivalent magnitude perturbations from the North Atlantic; a response we primarily attribute to greater moisture flux from the subpolar extratropics to Arctic. Enhanced poleward latent heat and moisture transport drive sea-ice retreat and low-cloud formation in the Arctic, amplifying Arctic surface warming through the ice-albedo feedback and infrared warming effect of low clouds. Our results imply that global climate sensitivity may be dependent on patterns of ocean heat flux in the northern hemisphere.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

Warming of Subarctic waters accelerates development of a key marine zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus

Recent observations confirm the rising temperatures of Atlantic waters transported into the Arctic Ocean via the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). We studied the overall abundance and population structure of the North Atlantic keystone zooplankton copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which is the main prey for pelagic fish and some seabirds, in relation to selected environmental variables in this area between 2001 and 2011, when warming in the Arctic and Subarctic was particularly pronounced. Sampling within a 3-week time window each summer demonstrated that trends in the overall abundance of C. finmarchicus varied between years, with the highest values in "extreme" years, due to high numbers of nauplii and early copepodite stages in colder years (2001, 2004, 2010), and contrary to that, the fifth copepodite stage (C5) peaking in warm years (2006, 2007, 2009). The most influential environmental variable driving C. finmarchicus life cycle was temperature, which promoted an increased C5 abundance when the temperature was above 6°C, indicating earlier spawning and/or accelerated development, and possibly leading to their development to adults later in the summer and spawning for the second time, given adequate food supply. Based on the presented high interannual and spatial variability, we hypothesize that under a warmer climate, C. finmarchicus may annually produce two generations in the southern part of the WSC, what in turn could lead to food web reorganization of important top predators, such as little auks, and induce northward migrations of fish, especially the Norwegian herring.

Sea-ice loss boosts visual search: fish foraging and changing pelagic interactions in polar oceans

Light is a central driver of biological processes and systems. Receding sea ice changes the lightscape of high-latitude oceans and more light will penetrate into the sea. This affects bottom-up control through primary productivity and top-down control through vision-based foraging. We model effects of sea-ice shading on visual search to develop a mechanistic understanding of how climate-driven sea-ice retreat affects predator-prey interactions. We adapt a prey encounter model for ice-covered waters, where prey-detection performance of planktivorous fish depends on the light cycle. We use hindcast sea-ice concentrations (past 35 years) and compare with a future no-ice scenario to project visual range along two south-north transects with different sea-ice distributions and seasonality, one through the Bering Sea and one through the Barents Sea. The transect approach captures the transition from sub-Arctic to Arctic ecosystems and allows for comparison of latitudinal differences between longitudes. We find that past sea-ice retreat has increased visual search at a rate of 2.7% to 4.2% per decade from the long-term mean; and for high latitudes, we predict a 16-fold increase in clearance rate. Top-down control is therefore predicted to intensify. Ecological and evolutionary consequences for polar marine communities and energy flows would follow, possibly also as tipping points and regime shifts. We expect species distributions to track the receding ice-edge, and in particular expect species with large migratory capacity to make foraging forays into high-latitude oceans. However, the extreme seasonality in photoperiod of high-latitude oceans may counteract such shifts and rather act as a zoogeographical filter limiting poleward range expansion. The provided mechanistic insights are relevant for pelagic ecosystems globally, including lakes where shifted distributions are seldom possible but where predator-prey consequences would be much related. As part of the discussion on photoperiodic implications for high-latitude range shifts, we provide a short review of studies linking physical drivers to latitudinal extent.

Continuous daylight in the high-Arctic summer supports high plankton respiration rates compared to those supported in the dark

Plankton respiration rate is a major component of global CO₂ production and is forecasted to increase rapidly in the Arctic with warming. Yet, existing assessments in the Arctic evaluated plankton respiration in the dark. Evidence that plankton respiration may be stimulated in the light is particularly relevant for the high Arctic where plankton communities experience continuous daylight in spring and summer. Here we demonstrate that plankton community respiration evaluated under the continuous daylight conditions present in situ, tends to be higher than that evaluated in the dark. The ratio between community respiration measured in the light (R_light) and in the dark (R_dark) increased as the 2/3 power of R_light so that the R_light:R_dark ratio increased from an average value of 1.37 at the median R_light measured here (3.62 µmol O₂ L^-1 d^-1) to an average value of 17.56 at the highest R_light measured here (15.8 µmol O₂ L^-1 d^-1). The role of respiratory processes as a source of CO₂ in the Arctic has, therefore, been underestimated and is far more important than previously believed, particularly in the late spring, with 24 h photoperiods, when community respiration rates are highest.

Polar Marine Microorganisms and Climate Change

The large diversity of marine microorganisms harboured by oceans plays an important role in planet sustainability by driving globally important biogeochemical cycles; all primary and most secondary production in the oceans is performed by microorganisms. The largest part of the planet is covered by cold environments; consequently, cold-adapted microorganisms have crucial functional roles in globally important environmental processes and biogeochemical cycles cold-adapted extremophiles are a remarkable model to shed light on the molecular basis of survival at low temperature. The indigenous populations of Antarctic and Arctic microorganisms are endowed with genetic and physiological traits that allow them to live and effectively compete at the temperatures prevailing in polar regions. Some genes, e.g. glycosyltransferases and glycosylsynthetases involved in the architecture of the cell wall, may have been acquired/retained during evolution of polar strains or lost in tropical strains. This present work focusses on temperature and its role in shaping microbial adaptations; however, in assessing the impacts of climate changes on microbial diversity and biogeochemical cycles in polar oceans, it should not be forgotten that physiological studies need to include the interaction of temperature with other abiotic and biotic factors.

Identifying chemicals that are planetary boundary threats

Rockström et al. proposed a set of planetary boundaries that delimit a "safe operating space for humanity". Many of the planetary boundaries that have so far been identified are determined by chemical agents. Other chemical pollution-related planetary boundaries likely exist, but are currently unknown. A chemical poses an unknown planetary boundary threat if it simultaneously fulfills three conditions: (1) it has an unknown disruptive effect on a vital Earth system process; (2) the disruptive effect is not discovered until it is a problem at the global scale, and (3) the effect is not readily reversible. In this paper, we outline scenarios in which chemicals could fulfill each of the three conditions, then use the scenarios as the basis to define chemical profiles that fit each scenario. The chemical profiles are defined in terms of the nature of the effect of the chemical and the nature of exposure of the environment to the chemical. Prioritization of chemicals in commerce against some of the profiles appears feasible, but there are considerable uncertainties and scientific challenges that must be addressed. Most challenging is prioritizing chemicals for their potential to have a currently unknown effect on a vital Earth system process. We conclude that the most effective strategy currently available to identify chemicals that are planetary boundary threats is prioritization against profiles defined in terms of environmental exposure combined with monitoring and study of the biogeochemical processes that underlie vital Earth system processes to identify currently unknown disruptive effects.

Seasonal sea ice cover as principal driver of spatial and temporal variation in depth extension and annual production of kelp in Greenland

We studied the depth distribution and production of kelp along the Greenland coast spanning Arctic to sub-Arctic conditions from 78 ºN to 64 ºN. This covers a wide range of sea ice conditions and water temperatures, with those presently realized in the south likely to move northwards in a warmer future. Kelp forests occurred along the entire latitudinal range, and their depth extension and production increased southwards presumably in response to longer annual ice-free periods and higher water temperature. The depth limit of 10% kelp cover was 9-14 m at the northernmost sites (77-78 ºN) with only 94-133 ice-free days per year, but extended to depths of 21-33 m further south (73 ºN-64 ºN) where >160 days per year were ice-free, and annual production of Saccharina longicruris and S. latissima, measured as the size of the annual blade, ranged up to sevenfold among sites. The duration of the open-water period, which integrates light and temperature conditions on an annual basis, was the best predictor (relative to summer water temperature) of kelp production along the latitude gradient, explaining up to 92% of the variation in depth extension and 80% of the variation in kelp production. In a decadal time series from a high Arctic site (74 ºN), inter-annual variation in sea ice cover also explained a major part (up to 47%) of the variation in kelp production. Both spatial and temporal data sets thereby support the prediction that northern kelps will play a larger role in the coastal marine ecosystem in a warmer future as the length of the open-water period increases. As kelps increase carbon-flow and habitat diversity, an expansion of kelp forests may exert cascading effects on the coastal Arctic ecosystem.

Arctic climate tipping points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Arctic tipping points: governance in turbulent times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region's natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.

Arctic tipping points in an Earth system perspective

We provide an introduction to the volume The Arctic in the Earth System perspective: the role of tipping points. The terms tipping point and tipping element are described and their role in current science, general debates, and the Arctic are elucidated. From a wider perspective, the volume focuses upon the role of humans in the Arctic component of the Earth system and in particular the envelope for human existence, the Arctic ecosystems. The Arctic climate tipping elements, the tipping elements in Arctic ecosystems and societies, and the challenges of governance and anticipation are illuminated through short summaries of eight publications that derive from the Arctic Frontiers conference in 2011 and the EU FP7 project Arctic Tipping Points. Then some ideas based upon resilience thinking are developed to show how wise system management could ease pressures on Arctic systems in order to keep them away from tipping points.