Serological survey on dengue virus infection in Singapore

Force of Infection and True Infection Rate of Dengue in Singapore: Implications for Dengue Control and Management

National data on dengue notifications do not capture all dengue infections and do not reflect the true intensity of disease transmission. To assess the true dengue infection rate and disease control efforts in Singapore, we conducted age-stratified serosurveys among residents after a 2013 outbreak that was the largest dengue outbreak on record. The age-weighted prevalence of dengue immunoglobulin G among residents was 49.8% (95% confidence interval: 48.4, 51.1) in 2013 and 48.6% (95% confidence interval: 47.0, 50.0) in 2017; prevalence increased with age. Combining these data with those from previous serosurveys, the year-on-year estimates of the dengue force of infection from 1930 to 2017 revealed a significant decrease from the late 1960s to the mid-1990s, after which the force of infection remained stable at approximately 10 per 1,000 persons per year. The reproduction number (R₀) had also declined since the 1960s. The reduction in dengue transmission may be attributed to the sustained national vector program and partly to a change in the age structure of the population. The improved estimated ratio of notified cases to true infections, from 1:14 in 2005–2009 to 1:6 in 2014–2017, signifies that the national notification system, which relies on diagnosed cases, has improved over time. The data also suggest that the magnitudes of dengue epidemics cannot be fairly compared across calendar years and that the current disease control program remains applicable.

Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: Considerations for serosurvey design

BACKGROUND

The CYD-TDV vaccine was unusual in that the recommended target population for vaccination was originally defined not only by age, but also by transmission setting as defined by seroprevalence. WHO originally recommended countries consider vaccination against dengue with CYD-TDV vaccine in geographic settings only where prior infection with any dengue serotype, as measured by seroprevalence, was >170% in the target age group. Vaccine was not recommended in settings where seroprevalence was <50%. Test-and-vaccinate strategies suggested following new analysis by Sanofi will still require age-stratified seroprevalence surveys to optimise age-group targeting. Here we address considerations for serosurvey design in the context of vaccination program planning.

METHODS

To explore how the design of seroprevalence surveys affects estimates of transmission intensity, 100 age-specific seroprevalence surveys were simulated using a beta-binomial distribution and a simple catalytic model for different combinations of age-range, survey size, transmission setting, and test sensitivity/specificity. We then used a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the force of infection from each simulated dataset.

RESULTS

Sampling from a wide age-range led to more accurate estimates than merely increasing sample size in a narrow age-range. This finding was consistent across all transmission settings. The optimum test sensitivity and specificity given an imperfect test differed by setting with high sensitivity being important in high transmission settings and high specificity important in low transmission settings.

CONCLUSIONS

When assessing vaccination suitability by seroprevalence surveys, countries should ensure an appropriate age-range is sampled, considering epidemiological evidence about the local burden of disease.

Epidemic resurgence of dengue fever in Singapore in 2013-2014: A virological and entomological perspective

BACKGROUND

Dengue resurged in Singapore during 2013-14, causing an outbreak with unprecedented number of cases in the country. In the present study, we summarise the epidemiological, virological and entomological findings gathered through the dengue surveillance programme and highlight the drivers of the epidemic. We also describe how the surveillance system facilitated the preparedness to moderate epidemic transmission of dengue in the country.

METHODS

The case surveillance was based on a mandatory notification system that requires all medical practitioners to report clinically-suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases within 24 hours. The circulating Dengue virus (DENV) populations were monitored through an island wide virus surveillance programme aimed at determining the serotypes and genotypes of circulating virus strains. Entomological surveillance included adult Aedes surveillance as well as premise checks for larval breeding.

RESULTS

A switch in the dominant serotype from DENV-2 to DENV-1 in March 2013 signalled a potential spike in cases, and the alert was corroborated by an increase in average Aedes house index. The alert triggered preparedness and early response to moderate the impending outbreak. The two-year outbreak led to 22,170 cases in 2013 and 18,338 in 2014, corresponding to an incidence rate of 410.6 and 335.0 per 100,000 population, respectively. DENV-1 was the dominant serotype in 2013 (61.7 %, n = 5,071) and 2014 (79.2 %, n = 5,226), contributed largely by a newly-introduced DENV-1 genotype III strain. The percentage of houses with Ae. aegypti breeding increased significantly (p < 0.001) from 2012 (annual average of 0.07 %) to 2013 (annual average of 0.14 %), followed by a drop in 2014 (annual average of 0.10 %). Aedes breeding data further showed a wide spread distribution of Ae. aegypti in the country that corresponded with the dengue case distribution pattern in 2013 and 2014. The adult Aedes data from 34 gravitrap sentinel sites revealed that approximately 1/3 of the monitored sites remained at high risk of DENV transmission in 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

The culmination of the latest epidemic is likely to be due to a number of demographic, social, virological, entomological, immunological, climatic and ecological factors that contribute to DENV transmission. A multi-pronged approach backed by the epidemiological, virological and entomological understanding paved way to moderate the case burden through an integrated vector management approach.

Seroprevalence of past dengue virus infection among children and adolescents in Singapore

We conducted a pediatric seroprevalence study of dengue virus (DENV) infection in Singapore, a dengue endemic city-state. Residual sera from 1,200 Singapore residents aged 1-17 years seen in two hospitals between 2008 and 2010 were tested for anti-DENV IgG antibodies. The overall seroprevalence was 10.4% (95%CI: 8.7-12.1%). There had been a marked decline in seroprevalence in the 15-19-year age group over the last three decades, while the prevalence in the 1-5-year olds (12.6%) was significantly higher than that of the 1996-1997 pediatric survey (0.8%). The overall dengue seroprevalence in children and adolescents remained low.

Dengue seroprevalence of healthy adults in Singapore: serosurvey among blood donors, 2009

Routine national notifications of dengue cases typically do not reflect the true dengue situation due to large proportion of unreported cases. Serosurveys, when conducted periodically, could shed light on the true dengue infections in the population. To determine the magnitude of dengue infections of the adult population in Singapore following the outbreak in 2007, we performed a cross-sectional study on blood donor samples from December 2009 to February 2010. The residual blood of 3,995 donors (aged 16–60 years) was screened for the presence of dengue-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits. The age-weighted IgG prevalence of residents was 50.8% (N = 3,627, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 49.4–52.3%). Dengue IgG prevalence increased with age, with the lowest in 16–20 years age group (16.1%) and the highest in 56–60 years age group (86.6%). Plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) on samples of young resident adults (aged 16–30 years) revealed lower prevalence of neutralizing antibodies to each serotype, ranging from 5.4% to 20.3% compared with the older age groups. The level of exposure to dengue among the young adults is relatively low despite the endemicity of the disease in Singapore. It partially explains the population’s susceptibility to explosive outbreaks and the high incidence rate among young adults.

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries

BACKGROUND

Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1-4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings.

Seroepidemiology of dengue virus infection in the adult population in tropical Singapore

To assess the impact of past dengue epidemics in Singapore, we undertook a national seroepidemiological study to determine the prevalence of past dengue virus (DENV) infection in the adult population in 2010 and make comparisons with the seroprevalence in 2004. The study involved residual sera from 3293 adults aged 18-79 years who participated in a national health survey in 2010. The overall prevalence of anti-DENV IgG antibodies was 56·8% (95% confidence interval 55·1-58·5) in 2010. The seroprevalence increased significantly with age. Males had significantly higher seroprevalence than females (61·5% vs. 53·2%). Among the three major ethnic groups, Malays had the lowest seroprevalence (50·2%) compared to Chinese (57·0%) and Indians (62·0%). The age-standardized seroprevalence in adults was significantly lower in 2010 (54·4%) compared to 2004 (63·1%). Older age, male gender, Indian ethnicity, permanent residency and being home-bound were independent risk factors significantly associated with seropositivity. About 43% of the Singapore adult resident population remain susceptible to DENV infection as a result of the successful implementation of a comprehensive nationwide Aedes surveillance and control programme since the 1970s. Vector suppression and concerted efforts of all stakeholders in the community remain the key strategy in the prevention and control of dengue.

Preliminary study of dengue virus infection in Iran

Dengue fever is one of the most important arthropod-borne viral diseases of public health significance. It is endemic in most tropical and subtropical parts of the world, many of which are popular tourist destinations. The presence of dengue infection was examined in Iranian patients who were referred to the Arboviruses and Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers Laboratory of the Pasteur Institute of Iran and tested negative for Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) between 2000 and 2012. Serum samples from these patients were tested for the presence of specific IgG and IgM and viral nucleic acid in blood. Of the 300 sera tested, 15 (5%) were seropositive, and 3 (1%) were both serologically and PCR positive. Of the 15 seropositive cases, 8 (53.3%) had travelled to endemic areas including Malaysia (5, 62.5%), India (2, 25%) and Thailand (1, 12.5%). In contrast, 7 (46.7%) of the cases had not reported travelling abroad. Of these, six cases were from the Sistan and Baluchistan province in southeast Iran and neighbouring Pakistan. Travellers play a key role in the epidemiology of dengue infection in Iran and it is recommended that travellers to endemic areas take precautionary measures to avoid mosquito bites.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever is associated with polymorphisms in JAK1

To identify genes associated with the clinical presentation of dengue, 50 cases of probable or possible dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), 236 dengue fever (DF), and 236 asymptomatic infections were genotyped for 593 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 56 genes across the type 1 interferon (IFN) response pathway as well as other important candidate genes. By single locus analysis comparing DHF with DF, 11 of the 51 markers with P<0.05 were in the JAK1 gene. Five markers were significantly associated by false discovery rate criteria (q<0.20 when P<6 × 10(-4)). The JAK1 SNPs showed differential distribution by ethnicity and ancestry consistent with epidemiologic observations in the Americas. The association remained significant after controlling for ancestry and income. No association was observed with markers in the gene encoding CD209 (DC-SIGN). An association between DHF and JAK1 polymorphisms is in agreement with expression profiles showing generalized decreased type 1 IFN-stimulated gene expression in these patients.

Seroepidemiology of Dengue Virus Infection Among Adults in Singapore

Introduction: To determine the seroepidemiology of dengue virus infection in a representative sample of the adult resident population aged 18 years old to 74 years old in Singapore and to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic dengue infection during the 2004 epidemic. Materials and Methods: The study was based on 4152 stored blood samples collected between September and December 2004 from participants aged 18 years old to 74 years old during the 2004 National Health Survey. Sera were tested for IgG and IgM antibodies using a commercial test kit (PanBio Capture/Indirect ELISA). Results: Of the study population, 59.0% and 2.6% tested positive for dengue IgG (past infection) and IgM/high-titre IgG (recent infection), respectively. Only 17.2% of young adults aged 18 years old to 24 years old were dengue IgG positive. Multivariate analyses showed that older age, Indian ethnicity and male gender were significantly associated with past infection, whereas only age was significantly associated with recent dengue infection. Based on the dengue cases notified during the period of survey, it was estimated that for every 23 individuals recently infected with dengue, only 1 was reported to the health authority as a clinical case. Conclusion: The Singapore population is highly susceptible to dengue epidemics despite its aggressive Aedes prevention and control programme. The finding of a high proportion of unreported cases due to asymptomatic and subclinical infection poses a challenge for dengue control. Key words: Aedes control, Asymptomatic infection, Herd immunity

Seroepidemiology of dengue in the adult population of Singapore

Urbanization is one of the reasons for the resurgence of dengue in tropical and subtropical countries. We conducted a cross-sectional seroepidemiological study in Singapore to determine the extent at which the Singapore population has been exposed to dengue infections. Dengue antibodies were measures with PanBio Dengue. Of 298 enrolled subjects (age 18-45), 133 (45%) had a positive dengue serology. In multivariate analysis, age and nationality (Singaporean vs non-Singaporean Asians) were found to be significant independent predictors. The odds ratio of dengue seroprevalence increased by 4.13 (95% CI: 2.88-5.93) for every 10 year increase in age. Dengue infections remain a major problem in Singapore.

Dengue virus infection rate in field populations of female Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Singapore

We developed a single-step reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) followed by a semi-nested PCR using an upstream consensus primer and four type-specific primers within the non-structural protein gene (NS3) of dengue viruses to type dengue viruses in field populations of female Aedes mosquitoes. This yielded diagnostic fragments of 169, 362, 265 and 426 base pairs for dengue virus types 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. From 1997 to 2000, 54 (6.9%) of 781 Aedes aegypti and 67 (2.9%) of 2256 Aedes albopictus screened were positive for dengue viruses, with a declining trend. The most common dengue virus type detected in the Aedes mosquitoes was dengue-1. Details on the change of one serotype to another in the mosquito population over three consecutive years are discussed.