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Amoakoh HB, De Kok BC, Yevoo LL, Olde Loohuis KM, Srofenyoh EK, Arhinful DK, Koi-Larbi K, Adu-Bonsaffoh K, Amoakoh-Coleman M, Browne JL. Co-creation of a toolkit to assist risk communication and clinical decision-making in severe preeclampsia: SPOT-Impact study design. Glob Health Action 2024; 17:2336314. [PMID: 38717819 PMCID: PMC11080670 DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2024.2336314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/25/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Globally, the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, especially preeclampsia, remains high, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The burden of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes is particularly high for women who develop a hypertensive disorder remote from term (<34 weeks). In parallel, many women have a suboptimal experience of care. To improve the quality of care in terms of provision and experience, there is a need to support the communication of risks and making of treatment decision in ways that promote respectful maternity care. Our study objective is to co-create a tool(kit) to support clinical decision-making, communication of risks and shared decision-making in preeclampsia with relevant stakeholders, incorporating respectful maternity care, justice, and equity principles. This qualitative study detailing the exploratory phase of co-creation takes place over 17 months (Nov 2021-March 2024) in the Greater Accra and Eastern Regions of Ghana. Informed by ethnographic observations of care interactions, in-depth interviews and focus group and group discussions, the tool(kit) will be developed with survivors and women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and their families, health professionals, policy makers, and researchers. The tool(kit) will consist of three components: quantitative predicted risk (based on external validated risk models or absolute risk of adverse outcomes), risk communication, and shared decision-making support. We expect to co-create a user-friendly tool(kit) to improve the quality of care for women with preeclampsia remote from term which will contribute to better maternal and perinatal health outcomes as well as better maternity care experience for women in Ghana.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Brown Amoakoh
- Department of Epidemiology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
- Department of Global Health and Bioethics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Bregje C. De Kok
- Anthropology Department, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Linda Lucy Yevoo
- Department of Epidemiology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Greater Accra Regional Hospital, Accra, Ghana
| | - Klaartje M. Olde Loohuis
- Department of Global Health and Bioethics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Emmanuel K. Srofenyoh
- Department of Global Health and Bioethics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Greater Accra Regional Hospital, Accra, Ghana
| | - Daniel K. Arhinful
- Department of Epidemiology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
| | | | - Kwame Adu-Bonsaffoh
- Department of Global Health and Bioethics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Ghana Medical School, Accra, Ghana
| | - Mary Amoakoh-Coleman
- Department of Epidemiology, Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
| | - Joyce L. Browne
- Department of Global Health and Bioethics, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
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Clapp MA, James KE, Mccoy TH, Perlis RH, Kaimal AJ. The Application of a Standard Risk Threshold for the Stratification of Maternal Morbidity among Population Subgroups. Am J Perinatol 2024; 41:e1235-e1240. [PMID: 36608698 DOI: 10.1055/a-2008-8598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to determine if a universally applied risk score threshold for severe maternal morbidity (SMM) resulted in different performance characteristics among subgroups of the population. STUDY DESIGN This is a retrospective cohort study of deliveries that occurred between July 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020, in a single health system. We examined the performance of a validated comorbidity score to stratify SMM risk in our cohort. We considered the risk score that was associated with the highest decile of predicted risk as a "screen positive" for morbidity. We then used this same threshold to calculate the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of this "highest risk" designation among subgroups of the overall cohort based on the following characteristics: age, race/ethnicity, parity, gestational age, and planned mode of delivery. RESULTS In the overall cohort of 53,982 women, the C-statistic was 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.741-0.769) and calibration plot demonstrated that the risk score was well calibrated. The model performed less well in the following groups: non-White or Hispanic (C-statistic, 0.734; 95% CI, 0.712-0.755), nulliparas (C-statistic, 0.735; 95% CI, 0.716-0.754), term deliveries (C-statistic, 0.712; 95% CI, 0.694-0.729), and planned vaginal delivery (C-statistic, 0.728; 95% CI, 0.709-0.747). There were differences in the PPVs by gestational age (7.8% term and 29.7% preterm) and by planned mode of delivery (8.7% vaginal and 17.7% cesarean delivery). Sensitivities were lower in women who were <35 years (36.6%), non-White or Hispanic (40.7%), nulliparous (38.9%), and those having a planned vaginal delivery (40.9%) than their counterparts. CONCLUSION The performance of a risk score for SMM can vary by population subgroups when using standard thresholds derived from the overall cohort. If applied without such considerations, such thresholds may be less likely to identify certain subgroups of the population that may be at increased risk of SMM. KEY POINTS · Predictive risk models are helpful at condensing complex information into an interpretable output.. · Model performance may vary among different population subgroups.. · Prediction models should be examined for their potential to exacerbate underlying disparities..
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark A Clapp
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Kaitlyn E James
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Thomas H Mccoy
- Center for Quantitative Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
- Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Roy H Perlis
- Center for Quantitative Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
- Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Anjali J Kaimal
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
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Ewington L, Black N, Leeson C, Al Wattar BH, Quenby S. Multivariable prediction models for fetal macrosomia and large for gestational age: A systematic review. BJOG 2024. [PMID: 38465451 DOI: 10.1111/1471-0528.17802] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2023] [Revised: 02/08/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 03/12/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The identification of large for gestational age (LGA) and macrosomic fetuses is essential for counselling and managing these pregnancies. OBJECTIVES To systematically review the literature for multivariable prediction models for LGA and macrosomia, assessing the performance, quality and applicability of the included model in clinical practice. SEARCH STRATEGY MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library were searched until June 2022. SELECTION CRITERIA We included observational and experimental studies reporting the development and/or validation of any multivariable prediction model for fetal macrosomia and/or LGA. We excluded studies that used a single variable or did not evaluate model performance. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Data were extracted using the Checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies checklist. The model performance measures discrimination, calibration and validation were extracted. The quality and completion of reporting within each study was assessed by its adherence to the TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) checklist. The risk of bias and applicability were measured using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool). MAIN RESULTS A total of 8442 citations were identified, with 58 included in the analysis: 32/58 (55.2%) developed, 21/58 (36.2%) developed and internally validated and 2/58 (3.4%) developed and externally validated a model. Only three studies externally validated pre-existing models. Macrosomia and LGA were differentially defined by many studies. In total, 111 multivariable prediction models were developed using 112 different variables. Model discrimination was wide ranging area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC 0.56-0.96) and few studies reported calibration (11/58, 19.0%). Only 5/58 (8.6%) studies had a low risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS There are currently no multivariable prediction models for macrosomia/LGA that are ready for clinical implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren Ewington
- Division of Biomedical Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire, Coventry, UK
| | - Naomi Black
- Division of Biomedical Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire, Coventry, UK
| | - Charlotte Leeson
- Division of Biomedical Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire, Coventry, UK
| | - Bassel H Al Wattar
- Beginnings Assisted Conception Unit, Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals, London, UK
- Comprehensive Clinical Trials Unit, Institute for Clinical Trials and Methodology, University College London, London, UK
| | - Siobhan Quenby
- Division of Biomedical Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
- University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire, Coventry, UK
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Bosschieter TM, Xu Z, Lan H, Lengerich BJ, Nori H, Painter I, Souter V, Caruana R. Interpretable Predictive Models to Understand Risk Factors for Maternal and Fetal Outcomes. JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS RESEARCH 2024; 8:65-87. [PMID: 38273984 PMCID: PMC10805688 DOI: 10.1007/s41666-023-00151-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2023] [Revised: 09/18/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Although most pregnancies result in a good outcome, complications are not uncommon and can be associated with serious implications for mothers and babies. Predictive modeling has the potential to improve outcomes through a better understanding of risk factors, heightened surveillance for high-risk patients, and more timely and appropriate interventions, thereby helping obstetricians deliver better care. We identify and study the most important risk factors for four types of pregnancy complications: (i) severe maternal morbidity, (ii) shoulder dystocia, (iii) preterm preeclampsia, and (iv) antepartum stillbirth. We use an Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a high-accuracy glass-box learning method, for the prediction and identification of important risk factors. We undertake external validation and perform an extensive robustness analysis of the EBM models. EBMs match the accuracy of other black-box ML methods, such as deep neural networks and random forests, and outperform logistic regression, while being more interpretable. EBMs prove to be robust. The interpretability of the EBM models reveal surprising insights into the features contributing to risk (e.g., maternal height is the second most important feature for shoulder dystocia) and may have potential for clinical application in the prediction and prevention of serious complications in pregnancy.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Zifei Xu
- Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Hui Lan
- Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | | | | | - Ian Painter
- Foundation for Healthcare Quality, Seattle, WA USA
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Tan J, Liu C, Yang M, Xiong Y, Huang S, Qi Y, Chen M, Thabane L, Liu X, He L, Sun X. Investigation of statistical methods used in prognostic prediction models for obstetric care: A 10 year-span cross-sectional study. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand 2024; 103:611-620. [PMID: 38140844 PMCID: PMC10867372 DOI: 10.1111/aogs.14757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2023] [Revised: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Obstetric care is a highly active area in the development and application of prognostic prediction models. The development and validation of these models often require the utilization of advanced statistical techniques. However, failure to adhere to rigorous methodological standards could greatly undermine the reliability and trustworthiness of the resultant models. Consequently, the aim of our study was to examine the current statistical practices employed in obstetric care and offer recommendations to enhance the utilization of statistical methods in the development of prognostic prediction models. MATERIAL AND METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional survey using a sample of studies developing or validating prognostic prediction models for obstetric care published in a 10-year span (2011-2020). A structured questionnaire was developed to investigate the statistical issues in five domains, including model derivation (predictor selection and algorithm development), model validation (internal and external), model performance, model presentation, and risk threshold setting. On the ground of survey results and existing guidelines, a list of recommendations for statistical methods in prognostic models was developed. RESULTS A total of 112 eligible studies were included, with 107 reporting model development and five exclusively reporting external validation. During model development, 58.9% of the studies did not include any form of validation. Of these, 46.4% used stepwise regression in a crude manner for predictor selection, while two-thirds made decisions on retaining or dropping candidate predictors solely based on p-values. Additionally, 26.2% transformed continuous predictors into categorical variables, and 80.4% did not consider nonlinear relationships between predictors and outcomes. Surprisingly, 94.4% of the studies did not examine the correlation between predictors. Moreover, 47.1% of the studies did not compare population characteristics between the development and external validation datasets, and only one-fifth evaluated both discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, 53.6% of the studies did not clearly present the model, and less than half established a risk threshold to define risk categories. In light of these findings, 10 recommendations were formulated to promote the appropriate use of statistical methods. CONCLUSIONS The use of statistical methods is not yet optimal. Ten recommendations were offered to assist the statistical methods of prognostic prediction models in obstetric care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Tan
- Chinese Evidence‐based Medicine Center, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in HainanChengduSichuanChina
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and ImpactMcMaster UniversityHamiltonOntarioCanada
- Biostatistics UnitSt Joseph's Healthcare—HamiltonHamiltonOntarioCanada
| | - Chunrong Liu
- Chinese Evidence‐based Medicine Center, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in HainanChengduSichuanChina
| | - Min Yang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public HealthSichuan UniversityChengduChina
- Faculty of Health, Design and ArtSwinburne Technology UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Yiquan Xiong
- Chinese Evidence‐based Medicine Center, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in HainanChengduSichuanChina
| | - Shiyao Huang
- Chinese Evidence‐based Medicine Center, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in HainanChengduSichuanChina
| | - Yana Qi
- Chinese Evidence‐based Medicine Center, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in HainanChengduSichuanChina
| | - Meng Chen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, and Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, West China Second University HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
| | - Lehana Thabane
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and ImpactMcMaster UniversityHamiltonOntarioCanada
- Biostatistics UnitSt Joseph's Healthcare—HamiltonHamiltonOntarioCanada
| | - Xinghui Liu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, and Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, West China Second University HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
| | - Lin He
- The Intelligence Library Center, Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese Evidence‐Based Medicine Center, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
| | - Xin Sun
- Chinese Evidence‐based Medicine Center, West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengduSichuanChina
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in HainanChengduSichuanChina
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Chen CY, Wang YH, Chen CP, Sun FJ, Chen YY, Huang YJ, Chiu NF. Clinical Application of a Graphene Oxide-Based Surface Plasmon Resonance Biosensor to Measure First-Trimester Serum Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A/A2 Ratio to Predict Preeclampsia. Int J Nanomedicine 2023; 18:7469-7481. [PMID: 38090367 PMCID: PMC10712333 DOI: 10.2147/ijn.s438426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Preeclampsia, a major cause of adverse pregnancy outcomes, involves metalloproteinases pregnancy-associated plasma protein (PAPP)-A and PAPP-A2 from placental trophoblasts. The graphene oxide (GO)-based surface plasmon resonance (SPR) biosensor has higher sensitivity, affinity, and selective ability than the traditional SPR biosensor. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of measuring first-trimester serum PAPP-A/PAPP-A2 ratio as a novel predictor of preeclampsia using the GO-SPR biosensor. Methods This prospective case-control study of pregnant women was conducted at MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan between January 2018 and June 2020. The SPR angle shifts of first-trimester serum PAPP-A, PAPP-A2, and PAPP-A/PAPP-A2 ratio measured using the GO-SPR biosensor were compared between preeclampsia and control groups. Results Serum samples from 185 pregnant women were collected, of whom 30 had preeclampsia (5 early-onset; 25 late-onset). The response time between the antibody-antigen association and dissociation only took about 200 seconds. The SPR angle shift of PAPP-A in the preeclampsia group was significantly smaller than that in the control group (median (interquartile range): 5.33 (4.55) versus 6.89 (4.10) millidegrees (mDeg), P = 0.008). Conversely, the SPR angle shift of PAPP-A2 in the preeclampsia group was significantly larger than that in the control group (5.70 (3.81) versus 3.63 (2.38) mDeg, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed a cut-off PAPP-A/PAPP-A2 ratio to predict all preeclampsia of ≤ 0.76, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.85, P < 0.001). Sub-group analysis revealed a cut-off PAPP-A/PAPP-A2 ratio to predict early-onset preeclampsia of ≤ 0.53 (AUC 0.99, 95% CI 0.96-1.00, P < 0.001), and ≤ 0.73 to predict late-onset preeclampsia (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.68-0.81, P < 0.001). Conclusion Measuring first-trimester serum PAPP-A/PAPP-A2 ratio using the GO-SPR biosensor could be a valuable method for early prediction of preeclampsia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen-Yu Chen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, 10449, Taiwan
- Department of Medicine, MacKay Medical College, New Taipei City, 252005, Taiwan
| | - Ying-Hao Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, 10449, Taiwan
| | - Chie-Pein Chen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, 10449, Taiwan
| | - Fang-Ju Sun
- Department of Medical Research, MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, 10449, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Yung Chen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, 10449, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Jun Huang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taipei, 10449, Taiwan
| | - Nan-Fu Chiu
- Laboratory of Nano-Photonics and Biosensors, Institute of Electro-Optical Engineering, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, 11677, Taiwan
- Department of Life Science, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, 11677, Taiwan
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Houri O, Gil Y, Krispin E, Amitai-Komem D, Chen R, Hochberg A, Wiznitzer A, Hadar E. Predicting adverse perinatal outcomes among gestational diabetes complicated pregnancies using neural network algorithm. J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med 2023; 36:2286928. [PMID: 38044265 DOI: 10.1080/14767058.2023.2286928] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2023] [Accepted: 11/19/2023] [Indexed: 12/05/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The primary aim of this study is to utilize a neural network model to predict adverse neonatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes (GDM). DESIGN Our model, based on XGBoost, was implemented using Python 3.6 with the Keras framework built on TensorFlow by Google. We sourced data from medical records of GDM-diagnosed individuals who delivered at our tertiary medical center between 2012 and 2016. The model included simple pregnancy parameters, maternal age, body mass index (BMI), parity, gravity, results of oral glucose tests, treatment modality, and glycemic control. The composite neonatal adverse outcomes defined as one of the following: large or small for gestational age, shoulder dystocia, fetal umbilical pH less than 7.2, neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), hyperbilirubinemia, or polycythemia. For the machine training phase, 70% of the cohort was randomly chosen. Each sample in this set consisted of baseline parameters and the composite outcome. The remaining samples were then employed to assess the accuracy of our model. RESULTS The study encompassed a total of 452 participants. The composite adverse outcome occurred in 29% of cases. Our model exhibited prediction accuracies of 82% at the time of GDM diagnosis and 91% at delivery. The factors most contributing to the prediction model were maternal age, pre-pregnancy BMI, and the results of the single 3-h 100 g oral glucose tolerance test. CONCLUSION Our advanced neural network algorithm has significant potential in predicting adverse neonatal outcomes in GDM-diagnosed individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ohad Houri
- Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach-Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Yotam Gil
- School of Electrical Engineering, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Eyal Krispin
- Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach-Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Daphna Amitai-Komem
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Sheba Medical Center, Tel-Hashomer, Israel
| | - Rony Chen
- Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach-Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Alyssa Hochberg
- Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach-Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Arnon Wiznitzer
- Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach-Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Eran Hadar
- Helen Schneider Hospital for Women, Rabin Medical Center, Petach-Tikva, Israel
- Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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Kleuskens DG, Van Veen CMC, Groenendaal F, Ganzevoort W, Gordijn SJ, Van Rijn BB, Lely AT, Schuit E, Kooiman J. Prediction of fetal and neonatal outcomes after preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency: systematic review of prediction models. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2023; 62:644-652. [PMID: 37161550 DOI: 10.1002/uog.26245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2022] [Revised: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 05/01/2023] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To identify all prediction models for fetal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancies with preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency (gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, HELLP syndrome or fetal growth restriction with its onset before 37 weeks' gestation) and to assess the quality of the models and their performance on external validation. METHODS A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science and EMBASE. Studies describing prediction models for fetal/neonatal mortality or significant neonatal morbidity in patients with preterm placental insufficiency disorders were included. Data extraction was performed using the CHARMS checklist. Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. Literature selection and data extraction were performed by two researchers independently. RESULTS Our literature search yielded 22 491 unique publications. Fourteen were included after full-text screening of 218 articles that remained after initial exclusions. The studies derived a total of 41 prediction models, including four models in the setting of pre-eclampsia or HELLP, two models in the setting of fetal growth restriction and/or pre-eclampsia and 35 models in the setting of fetal growth restriction. None of the models was validated externally, and internal validation was performed in only two studies. The final models contained mainly ultrasound (Doppler) markers as predictors of fetal/neonatal mortality and neonatal morbidity. Discriminative properties were reported for 27/41 models (c-statistic between 0.6 and 0.9). Only two studies presented a calibration plot. The risk of bias was assessed as unclear in one model and high for all other models, mainly owing to the use of inappropriate statistical methods. CONCLUSIONS We identified 41 prediction models for fetal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancies with preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency. All models were considered to be of low methodological quality, apart from one that had unclear methodological quality. Higher-quality models and external validation studies are needed to inform clinical decision-making based on prediction models. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- D G Kleuskens
- Department of Obstetrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - C M C Van Veen
- Department of Obstetrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - F Groenendaal
- Department of Neonatology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - W Ganzevoort
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Reproduction and Development Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - S J Gordijn
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - B B Van Rijn
- Department of Obstetrics and Fetal Medicine, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - A T Lely
- Department of Obstetrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - E Schuit
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - J Kooiman
- Department of Obstetrics, University Medical Center Utrecht, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Dehaene I, Steen J, Dukes O, Olarte Parra C, De Coen K, Smets K, Roelens K, Decruyenaere J. On optimal timing of antenatal corticosteroids: time to reformulate the question. Arch Gynecol Obstet 2023; 308:1085-1091. [PMID: 36738316 DOI: 10.1007/s00404-023-06941-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2022] [Accepted: 01/18/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Administration of antenatal corticosteroids (ACS) for accelerating foetal lung maturation in threatened preterm birth is one of the cornerstones of prevention of neonatal mortality and morbidity. To identify the optimal timing of ACS administration, most studies have compared subgroups based on treatment-to-delivery intervals. Such subgroup analysis of the first placebo-controlled randomised controlled trial indicated that a one to seven day interval between ACS administration and birth resulted in the lowest rates of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. This efficacy window was largely confirmed by a series of subgroup analyses of subsequent trials and observational studies and strongly influenced obstetric management. However, these subgroup analyses suffer from a methodological flaw that often seems to be overlooked and potentially has important consequences for drawing valid conclusions. In this commentary, we point out that studies comparing treatment outcomes between subgroups that are retrospectively identified at birth (i.e. after randomisation) may not only be plagued by post-randomisation confounding bias but, more importantly, may not adequately inform decision making before birth, when the projected duration of the interval is still unknown. We suggest two more formal interpretations of these subgroup analyses, using a counterfactual framework for causal inference, and demonstrate that each of these interpretations can be linked to a different hypothetical trial. However, given the infeasibility of these trials, we argue that none of these rescue interpretations are helpful for clinical decision making. As a result, guidelines based on these subgroup analyses may have led to suboptimal clinical practice. As an alternative to these flawed subgroup analyses, we suggest a more principled approach that clearly formulates the question about optimal timing of ACS treatment in terms of the protocol of a future randomised study. Even if this 'target trial' would never be conducted, its protocol may still provide important guidance to avoid repeating common design flaws when conducting observational 'real world' studies using statistical methods for causal inference.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabelle Dehaene
- Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Ghent University Hospital, Corneel Heymanslaan 10, Ghent, Belgium.
| | - Johan Steen
- Department of Internal Medicine and Pediatrics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- Renal Division, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Oliver Dukes
- Department of Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Statistics, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Camila Olarte Parra
- Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kris De Coen
- Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Koenraad Smets
- Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Ghent University Hospital, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Kristien Roelens
- Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Ghent University Hospital, Corneel Heymanslaan 10, Ghent, Belgium
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10
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Ghose I, Wiley RL, Ciomperlik HN, Chen HY, Sibai BM, Chauhan SP, Mendez-Figueroa H. Association of adverse outcomes with three-tiered risk assessment tool for obstetrical hemorrhage. Am J Obstet Gynecol MFM 2023; 5:101106. [PMID: 37524259 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajogmf.2023.101106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2023] [Revised: 06/23/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 08/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Guidelines promote stratification for the risk for postpartum hemorrhage among parturients, although the evidence for the associated differential morbidity among the groups remains inconsistent among published reports. OBJECTIVE Using the California Maternal Quality Care Collaborative schema modified by the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology, we compared the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome and the composite neonatal adverse outcome among singletons who were categorized after delivery by the researchers as low-, medium-, or high-risk for postpartum hemorrhage. We hypothesized that the composite outcomes would be significantly different among the individuals in the different 3-tiered categories. STUDY DESIGN This was a retrospective cohort study of all singleton parturients with a gestational age of at least 14 weeks who delivered at a single site within 1 year. The composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome included any of the following: estimated blood loss ≥1000 mL, use of uterotonics (excluding prophylactic oxytocin) or Bakri balloon, surgical management of postpartum hemorrhage, blood transfusion, hysterectomy, thromboembolism, admission to the intensive care unit, or maternal death. The composite neonatal adverse outcome included Apgar score <7 at 5 minutes, birth injury, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular hemorrhage, neonatal seizure, sepsis, ventilation > 6 hrs., brachial plexus palsy, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, or neonatal death. Multivariable Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to estimate the adjusted relative risks with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS Of the 4544 deliveries in the study period, 4404 (96.7%) met the inclusion criteria, and among them, 1745 (39.6%) were categorized as low, 1376 (31.2%) as medium, and 1283 (29.1%) as high risk. Overall, 941 (21.4%) participants experienced the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome with 285 (16.4%) of those being in the low-risk group, 319 (23.2%) in the medium-risk group, and 337 (26.3%) in the high-risk group. Among all parturients, 95.7% in the low-, 89.4% in the medium-, and 85.3% in the high-risk group neither had an estimated blood loss or a quantified blood loss ≥1000 mL nor were transfused. After multivariable adjustment and when compared with the low-risk group, there was a significantly higher risk for the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome in the medium-risk group (adjusted relative risk, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.43) and in the high-risk group (adjusted relative risk, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.75). Overall, 366 newborns (8.4%) developed the composite neonatal adverse outcome with 76 (4.2%) in of those being in the low-risk group, 153 (11.3%) in the medium-risk group, and 140 (11.1%) in the high-risk group. After multivariable adjustment and when compared with the low-risk group, there were no significant differences in the composite neonatal adverse outcome in the medium- (adjusted relative risk, 1.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.68) or the high-risk group (adjusted relative risk, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.68). CONCLUSION Although 8 of 10 parturients categorized as high risk neither had blood loss ≥1000 mL nor underwent transfusion, the risk stratification provides information regarding the composite maternal hemorrhagic outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ipsita Ghose
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX
| | - Rachel L Wiley
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX
| | - Hailie N Ciomperlik
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX
| | - Han-Yang Chen
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX
| | - Baha M Sibai
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX
| | - Suneet P Chauhan
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX.
| | - Hector Mendez-Figueroa
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, McGovern Medical School at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX
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Hu Y, Lu H, Ren L, Yang M, Shen M, Huang J, Huang Q, Fu L. Prediction models for perineal lacerations during childbirth: A systematic review and critical appraisal. Int J Nurs Stud 2023; 145:104546. [PMID: 37423201 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2023.104546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2023] [Revised: 06/06/2023] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 07/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Perineal lacerations could lead to substantial morbidities for women. A reliable prediction model for perineal lacerations has the potential to guide the prevention. Although several prediction models have been developed to estimate the risk of perineal lacerations, especially third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations, the evidence about the model quality and clinical applicability is scarce. OBJECTIVES To systematically review and critically appraise the existing prediction models for perineal lacerations. METHODS Seven databases (PubMed, Embase, The Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, SinoMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Wanfang Data) were systematically searched from inception to July 2022. Studies that developed prediction models for perineal lacerations or performed external validation of existing models were considered eligible to include in the systematic review. Two reviewers independently conducted data extraction according to the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies. The risk of bias and the applicability of the included models were assessed with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. A narrative synthesis was performed to summarize the characteristics, risk of bias, and performance of existing models. RESULTS Of 4345 retrieved studies, 14 studies with 22 prediction models for perineal lacerations were included. The included models mainly aimed to estimate the risk of third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations. The top five predictors used were operative vaginal birth (72.7 %), parity/previous vaginal birth (63.6 %), race/ethnicity (59.1 %), maternal age (50.0 %), and episiotomy (40.1 %). Internal and external validation was performed in 12 (54.5 %) and seven (31.8 %) models, respectively. 13 studies (92.9 %) assessed model discrimination, with the c-index ranging from 0.636 to 0.830. Seven studies (50.0 %) evaluated the model calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score, or calibration curve. The results indicated that most of the models had fairly good calibration. All the included models were at higher risk of bias mainly due to unclear or inappropriate methods for handling missing data and continuous predictors, external validation, and model performance evaluation. Six models (27.3 %) showed low concerns about applicability. CONCLUSIONS The existing models for perineal lacerations were poorly validated and evaluated, among which only two have the potential for clinical use: one for women undergoing vaginal birth after cesarean delivery, and the other one for all women undergoing vaginal birth. Future studies should focus on robust external validation of existing models and the development of novel models for second-degree perineal laceration. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42022349786. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT The existing models for perineal lacerations during childbirth need external validation and updating. Tools are needed for second-degree perineal laceration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yinchu Hu
- School of Nursing, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
| | - Hong Lu
- School of Nursing, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
| | - Lihua Ren
- School of Nursing, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
| | - Minghui Yang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Meidi Shen
- School of Nursing, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Jing Huang
- School of Florence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Palliative Care, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Qifang Huang
- School of Nursing, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Li Fu
- School of Nursing, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
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12
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Yan C, Yang Q, Li R, Yang A, Fu Y, Wang J, Li Y, Cheng Q, Hu S. A systematic review of prediction models for spontaneous preterm birth in singleton asymptomatic pregnant women with risk factors. Heliyon 2023; 9:e20099. [PMID: 37809403 PMCID: PMC10559850 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2023] [Revised: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/12/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Backgrounds Spontaneous preterm birth (SPB) is a global problem. Early screening, identification, and prevention in asymptomatic pregnant women with risk factors for preterm birth can help reduce the incidence and mortality of preterm births. Therefore, this study systematically reviewed prediction models for spontaneous preterm birth, summarised the model characteristics, and appraised their quality to identify the best-performing prediction model for clinical decision-making. Methods PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Biology Medicine disc, VIP Database, and Wanfang Data were searched up to September 27, 2021. Prediction models for spontaneous preterm births in singleton asymptomatic pregnant women with risk factors were eligible for inclusion. Six independent reviewers selected the eligible studies and extracted data from the prediction models. The findings were summarised using descriptive statistics and visual plots. Results Twelve studies with twelve developmental models were included. Discriminative performance was reported in 11 studies, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) ranging from 0.75 to 0.95. The AUCs of the seven models were greater than 0.85. Cervical length (CL) is the most commonly used predictor of spontaneous preterm birth. A total of 91.7% of the studies had a high risk of bias in the analysis domain, mainly because of the small sample size and lack of adjustment for overfitting. Conclusion The accuracy of the models for spontaneous preterm births in singleton asymptomatic women with risk factors was good. However, these models are not widely used in clinical practice because they lack replicability and transparency. Future studies should transparently report methodological details and consider more meaningful predictors with new progress in research on preterm birth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chunmei Yan
- Department of Gynaecology and Obstetrics, Hospital of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Qiuyu Yang
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Evidence Based Social Science Research Center, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Richeng Li
- Department of Gynaecology and Obstetrics, Hospital of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Aijun Yang
- Department of Gynaecology and Obstetrics, Gansu Provincial Maternity and Child-Care Hospital, Lanzhou, China
| | - Yu Fu
- Department of Prenatal Diagnosis Center, Gansu Provincial Maternity and Child-Care Hospital, Lanzhou, China
| | - Jieneng Wang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Ying Li
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Evidence Based Social Science Research Center, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Qianji Cheng
- Department of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
- Evidence Based Social Science Research Center, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
| | - Shasha Hu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China
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13
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Gunabalasingam S, De Almeida Lima Slizys D, Quotah O, Magee L, White SL, Rigutto-Farebrother J, Poston L, Dalrymple KV, Flynn AC. Micronutrient supplementation interventions in preconception and pregnant women at increased risk of developing pre-eclampsia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Eur J Clin Nutr 2023; 77:710-730. [PMID: 36352102 PMCID: PMC10335932 DOI: 10.1038/s41430-022-01232-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2022] [Revised: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pre-eclampsia can lead to maternal and neonatal complications and is a common cause of maternal mortality worldwide. This review has examined the effect of micronutrient supplementation interventions in women identified as having a greater risk of developing pre-eclampsia. METHODS A systematic review was performed using the PRISMA guidelines. The electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled trials were searched for relevant literature and eligible studies identified according to a pre-specified criteria. A meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) was conducted to examine the effect of micronutrient supplementation on pre-eclampsia in high-risk women. RESULTS Twenty RCTs were identified and supplementation included vitamin C and E (n = 7), calcium (n = 5), vitamin D (n = 3), folic acid (n = 2), magnesium (n = 1) and multiple micronutrients (n = 2). Sample size and recruitment time point varied across studies and a variety of predictive factors were used to identify participants, with a previous history of pre-eclampsia being the most common. No studies utilised a validated prediction model. There was a reduction in pre-eclampsia with calcium (risk difference, -0.15 (-0.27, -0.03, I2 = 83.4%)), and vitamin D (risk difference, -0.09 (-0.17, -0.02, I2 = 0.0%)) supplementation. CONCLUSION Our findings show a lower rate of pre-eclampsia with calcium and vitamin D, however, conclusions were limited by small sample sizes, methodological variability and heterogeneity between studies. Further higher quality, large-scale RCTs of calcium and vitamin D are warranted. Exploration of interventions at different time points before and during pregnancy as well as those which utilise prediction modelling methodology, would provide greater insight into the efficacy of micronutrient supplementation intervention in the prevention of pre-eclampsia in high-risk women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sowmiya Gunabalasingam
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, 10th Floor North Wing, St Thomas' Hospital, Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - Daniele De Almeida Lima Slizys
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, 10th Floor North Wing, St Thomas' Hospital, Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - Ola Quotah
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, 10th Floor North Wing, St Thomas' Hospital, Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - Laura Magee
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, 10th Floor North Wing, St Thomas' Hospital, Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - Sara L White
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, 10th Floor North Wing, St Thomas' Hospital, Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | | | - Lucilla Poston
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, 10th Floor North Wing, St Thomas' Hospital, Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7EH, UK
| | - Kathryn V Dalrymple
- Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, 4th floor Addison House, Guy's Campus, London, SE1 1UL, UK
| | - Angela C Flynn
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, Franklin-Wilkins Building, 150 Stamford Street, London, SE1 9NH, UK.
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Stoilov B, Zaharieva-Dinkova P, Stoilova L, Uchikova E, Karaslavova E. Independent predictors of preeclampsia and their impact on the complication in Bulgarian study group of pregnant women. Folia Med (Plovdiv) 2023; 65:384-392. [PMID: 38351813 DOI: 10.3897/folmed.65.e86087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/16/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION One of the major obstetrical complications, affecting 2%-8% of all pregnancies, is preeclampsia. To predict the onset of preeclampsia, several methods have recently been put forth. The Fetal Medicine Foundation has developed combined screening that can identify the vast majority of women who will develop preeclampsia using a combination of maternal factors, obstetrical history, biochemical, and biophysical factors.
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15
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Hromadnikova I, Kotlabova K, Krofta L. First-Trimester Screening for Miscarriage or Stillbirth-Prediction Model Based on MicroRNA Biomarkers. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:10137. [PMID: 37373283 DOI: 10.3390/ijms241210137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2023] [Revised: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/13/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
Abstract
We evaluated the potential of cardiovascular-disease-associated microRNAs to predict in the early stages of gestation (from 10 to 13 gestational weeks) the occurrence of a miscarriage or stillbirth. The gene expressions of 29 microRNAs were studied retrospectively in peripheral venous blood samples derived from singleton Caucasian pregnancies diagnosed with miscarriage (n = 77 cases; early onset, n = 43 cases; late onset, n = 34 cases) or stillbirth (n = 24 cases; early onset, n = 13 cases; late onset, n = 8 cases; term onset, n = 3 cases) and 80 selected gestational-age-matched controls (normal term pregnancies) using real-time RT-PCR. Altered expressions of nine microRNAs (upregulation of miR-1-3p, miR-16-5p, miR-17-5p, miR-26a-5p, miR-146a-5p, and miR-181a-5p and downregulation of miR-130b-3p, miR-342-3p, and miR-574-3p) were observed in pregnancies with the occurrence of a miscarriage or stillbirth. The screening based on the combination of these nine microRNA biomarkers revealed 99.01% cases at a 10.0% false positive rate (FPR). The predictive model for miscarriage only was based on the altered gene expressions of eight microRNA biomarkers (upregulation of miR-1-3p, miR-16-5p, miR-17-5p, miR-26a-5p, miR-146a-5p, and miR-181a-5p and downregulation of miR-130b-3p and miR-195-5p). It was able to identify 80.52% cases at a 10.0% FPR. Highly efficient early identification of later occurrences of stillbirth was achieved via the combination of eleven microRNA biomarkers (upregulation of miR-1-3p, miR-16-5p, miR-17-5p, miR-20a-5p, miR-146a-5p, and miR-181a-5p and downregulation of miR-130b-3p, miR-145-5p, miR-210-3p, miR-342-3p, and miR-574-3p) or, alternatively, by the combination of just two upregulated microRNA biomarkers (miR-1-3p and miR-181a-5p). The predictive power achieved 95.83% cases at a 10.0% FPR and, alternatively, 91.67% cases at a 10.0% FPR. The models based on the combination of selected cardiovascular-disease-associated microRNAs had very high predictive potential for miscarriages or stillbirths and may be implemented in routine first-trimester screening programs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ilona Hromadnikova
- Department of Molecular Biology and Cell Pathology, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, 14700 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Katerina Kotlabova
- Department of Molecular Biology and Cell Pathology, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, 14700 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Ladislav Krofta
- Institute for the Care of the Mother and Child, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, 14700 Prague, Czech Republic
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Arshi B, Wynants L, Rijnhart E, Reeve K, Cowley LE, Smits LJ. What proportion of clinical prediction models make it to clinical practice? Protocol for a two-track follow-up study of prediction model development publications. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e073174. [PMID: 37197813 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-073174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/19/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION It is known that only a limited proportion of developed clinical prediction models (CPMs) are implemented and/or used in clinical practice. This may result in a large amount of research waste, even when considering that some CPMs may demonstrate poor performance. Cross-sectional estimates of the numbers of CPMs that have been developed, validated, evaluated for impact or utilized in practice, have been made in specific medical fields, but studies across multiple fields and studies following up the fate of CPMs are lacking. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We have conducted a systematic search for prediction model studies published between January 1995 and December 2020 using the Pubmed and Embase databases, applying a validated search strategy. Taking random samples for every calendar year, abstracts and articles were screened until a target of 100 CPM development studies were identified. Next, we will perform a forward citation search of the resulting CPM development article cohort to identify articles on external validation, impact assessment or implementation of those CPMs. We will also invite the authors of the development studies to complete an online survey to track implementation and clinical utilization of the CPMs.We will conduct a descriptive synthesis of the included studies, using data from the forward citation search and online survey to quantify the proportion of developed models that are validated, assessed for their impact, implemented and/or used in patient care. We will conduct time-to-event analysis using Kaplan-Meier plots. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION No patient data are involved in the research. Most information will be extracted from published articles. We request written informed consent from the survey respondents. Results will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences. OSF REGISTRATION: (https://osf.io/nj8s9).
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Affiliation(s)
- Banafsheh Arshi
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Laure Wynants
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
- Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Eline Rijnhart
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Kelly Reeve
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, Department of Biostatistics, University of Zurich, Hirschengraben 84, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Luc J Smits
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI School for Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
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Rahnenführer J, De Bin R, Benner A, Ambrogi F, Lusa L, Boulesteix AL, Migliavacca E, Binder H, Michiels S, Sauerbrei W, McShane L. Statistical analysis of high-dimensional biomedical data: a gentle introduction to analytical goals, common approaches and challenges. BMC Med 2023; 21:182. [PMID: 37189125 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-02858-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/03/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In high-dimensional data (HDD) settings, the number of variables associated with each observation is very large. Prominent examples of HDD in biomedical research include omics data with a large number of variables such as many measurements across the genome, proteome, or metabolome, as well as electronic health records data that have large numbers of variables recorded for each patient. The statistical analysis of such data requires knowledge and experience, sometimes of complex methods adapted to the respective research questions. METHODS Advances in statistical methodology and machine learning methods offer new opportunities for innovative analyses of HDD, but at the same time require a deeper understanding of some fundamental statistical concepts. Topic group TG9 "High-dimensional data" of the STRATOS (STRengthening Analytical Thinking for Observational Studies) initiative provides guidance for the analysis of observational studies, addressing particular statistical challenges and opportunities for the analysis of studies involving HDD. In this overview, we discuss key aspects of HDD analysis to provide a gentle introduction for non-statisticians and for classically trained statisticians with little experience specific to HDD. RESULTS The paper is organized with respect to subtopics that are most relevant for the analysis of HDD, in particular initial data analysis, exploratory data analysis, multiple testing, and prediction. For each subtopic, main analytical goals in HDD settings are outlined. For each of these goals, basic explanations for some commonly used analysis methods are provided. Situations are identified where traditional statistical methods cannot, or should not, be used in the HDD setting, or where adequate analytic tools are still lacking. Many key references are provided. CONCLUSIONS This review aims to provide a solid statistical foundation for researchers, including statisticians and non-statisticians, who are new to research with HDD or simply want to better evaluate and understand the results of HDD analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Axel Benner
- Division of Biostatistics, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Federico Ambrogi
- Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
- Scientific Directorate, IRCCS Policlinico San Donato, San Donato Milanese, Italy
| | - Lara Lusa
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics, Natural Sciences and Information Technology, University of Primorksa, Koper, Slovenia
- Institute of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Anne-Laure Boulesteix
- Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | | | - Harald Binder
- Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Stefan Michiels
- Service de Biostatistique et d'Épidémiologie, Gustave Roussy, Université Paris-Saclay, Villejuif, France
- Oncostat U1018, Inserm, Université Paris-Saclay, Labeled Ligue Contre le Cancer, Villejuif, France
| | - Willi Sauerbrei
- Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Lisa McShane
- Biometric Research Program, Division of Cancer Treatment and Diagnosis, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA.
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18
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Giles-Clark HJ, Skinner SM, Rolnik DL, Mol BW. Should we use composite outcomes in obstetric clinical prediction models? Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol 2023; 285:193-197. [PMID: 37148646 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejogrb.2023.04.031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2023] [Revised: 04/23/2023] [Accepted: 04/29/2023] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Clinical prediction models assist clinicians to estimate the natural course of a condition, and thus facilitate treatment decisions. The development of prediction models is increasingly common in obstetric research. Composite outcomes, whereby multiple outcomes are combined into a single endpoint, are frequently used in obstetric prediction models to increase statistical power when predicting rare events. Although existing literature has reviewed the positives and negatives of using composite outcomes in clinical trials, there has been minimal commentary on the implications of their use in the development and reporting of prognostic models. In this article, we review these issues, in particular, highlighting how unequal individual relationships between predictors and individual component outcomes can result in misleading conclusions, which may result in the omission of important but rare predictors or inappropriately inform clinical decisions to implement an intervention. We propose careful use, or where possible avoidance, of composite outcomes in the development of prognostic models in obstetrics. Methodological standards for developing prognostic models should be updated to standardise and appraise composite outcomes when their use is necessary. We also support previous recommendations to report on the accuracy of key components and inconsistencies among predictor variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly J Giles-Clark
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Women's and Newborns, Monash Health, Victoria, Australia; Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Sasha M Skinner
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Women's and Newborns, Monash Health, Victoria, Australia; Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Daniel L Rolnik
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Women's and Newborns, Monash Health, Victoria, Australia; Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Ben W Mol
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia; Aberdeen Centre for Women's Health Research, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
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19
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Thompson RA, Thompson JMD, Wilson J, Cronin RS, Mitchell EA, Raynes-Greenow CH, Li M, Stacey T, Heazell AEP, O'Brien LM, McCowan LME, Anderson NH. Risk factors for late preterm and term stillbirth: A secondary analysis of an individual participant data meta-analysis. BJOG 2023. [PMID: 36852504 DOI: 10.1111/1471-0528.17444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Revised: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 01/09/2023] [Indexed: 03/01/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Identify independent and novel risk factors for late-preterm (28-36 weeks) and term (≥37 weeks) stillbirth and explore development of a risk-prediction model. DESIGN Secondary analysis of an Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis investigating modifiable stillbirth risk factors. SETTING An IPD database from five case-control studies in New Zealand, Australia, the UK and an international online study. POPULATION Women with late-stillbirth (cases, n = 851), and ongoing singleton pregnancies from 28 weeks' gestation (controls, n = 2257). METHODS Established and novel risk factors for late-preterm and term stillbirth underwent univariable and multivariable logistic regression modelling with multiple sensitivity analyses. Variables included maternal age, body mass index (BMI), parity, mental health, cigarette smoking, second-hand smoking, antenatal-care utilisation, and detailed fetal movement and sleep variables. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Independent risk factors with adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for late-preterm and term stillbirth. RESULTS After model building, 575 late-stillbirth cases and 1541 controls from three contributing case-control studies were included. Risk factor estimates from separate multivariable models of late-preterm and term stillbirth were compared. As these were similar, the final model combined all late-stillbirths. The single multivariable model confirmed established demographic risk factors, but additionally showed that fetal movement changes had both increased (decreased frequency) and reduced (hiccoughs, increasing strength, frequency or vigorous fetal movements) aOR of stillbirth. Poor antenatal-care utilisation increased risk while more-than-adequate care was protective. The area-under-the-curve was 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.86). CONCLUSIONS Similarities in risk factors for late-preterm and term stillbirth suggest the same approach for risk-assessment can be applied. Detailed fetal movement assessment and inclusion of antenatal-care utilisation could be valuable in late-stillbirth risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- R A Thompson
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - J M D Thompson
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Department of Paediatrics: Child and Youth Health, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - J Wilson
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Department of Paediatrics: Child and Youth Health, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - R S Cronin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Women's Health Division, Counties Manukau Health, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - E A Mitchell
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Department of Paediatrics: Child and Youth Health, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - C H Raynes-Greenow
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia
| | - M Li
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
- Women's Health Division, Counties Manukau Health, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - T Stacey
- Florence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery & Palliative Care, King's College London, London, UK
| | - A E P Heazell
- University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - L M O'Brien
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - L M E McCowan
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - N H Anderson
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Faculty of Medical and Health Science, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
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20
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Feleke SF, Dessie AM, Tenaw D, Yimer A, Geremew H, Mulatie R, Kebede A. Systematic review and meta-analysis protocol for development and validation of a prediction model for gestational hypertension in Africa. SAGE Open Med 2023; 11:20503121231153508. [PMID: 36778201 PMCID: PMC9912540 DOI: 10.1177/20503121231153508] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/10/2023] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective Examining the development and validation of predictive models for gestational hypertension, evaluating the validity of the methodology, and investigating predictors typically employed in such models. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis protocol. Methods The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) guideline will be used to carry out the study procedure. Using the key phrases "Gestational hypertension," "prediction, risk prediction," and "validation," a full systematic search will be conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE, Hinari, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar. The methodological quality of the included studies will be evaluated using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool. The CHARMS (checklist for critical evaluation and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling research) will be used to extract the data, and STATA 16 will be used to analyze it. The degree of study heterogeneity will be assessed using Cochrane I2 statistics. Discussion A subgroup analysis will be performed to reduce the variance between primary studies. To examine the impact of individual studies on the pooled estimates, a sensitivity analysis will be performed. The funnel plot test and Egger's statistical test will be used to assess the small study effect. The presence of a modest study effect is shown by Egger's test (p-value 0.05), which will be handled by nonparametric trim and fill analysis using the random-effects model. The protocol has been registered in the PROSPERO-International Prospective Register of systematic reviews, with the registration number CRD42022314601.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sefineh Fenta Feleke
- Department of Public Health, College of
Health Sciences, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia,Sefineh Fenta Feleke, Department of Public
Health, College of Health Sciences, Woldia University, PO.Box: 400, Ethiopia.
| | - Anteneh Mengist Dessie
- Department of Public Health, College of
Health Sciences, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia
| | - Denekew Tenaw
- Department of Public Health, College of
Health Sciences, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia
| | - Ali Yimer
- Department of Public Health, College of
Health Sciences, Woldia University, Woldia, Ethiopia
| | - Habtamu Geremew
- Department of Nursing, College of
Health Sciences, Oda Bultum University, Chiro, Ethiopia
| | - Rahel Mulatie
- Department of Public Health, College of
Health Sciences, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia
| | - Abayneh Kebede
- Department of Mathematics, College of
Natural and Computational Sciences, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor,
Ethiopia
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21
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Liu C, Qi Y, Liu X, Chen M, Xiong Y, Huang S, Zou K, Tan J, Sun X. The reporting of prognostic prediction models for obstetric care was poor: a cross-sectional survey of 10-year publications. BMC Med Res Methodol 2023; 23:9. [PMID: 36635634 PMCID: PMC9835271 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-023-01832-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 01/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To investigate the reporting of prognostic prediction model studies in obstetric care through a cross-sectional survey design. METHODS PubMed was searched to identify prognostic prediction model studies in obstetric care published from January 2011 to December 2020. The quality of reporting was assessed by the TRIPOD checklist. The overall adherence by study and the adherence by item were calculated separately, and linear regression analysis was conducted to explore the association between overall adherence and prespecified study characteristics. RESULTS A total of 121 studies were included, while no study completely adhered to the TRIPOD. The results showed that the overall adherence was poor (median 46.4%), and no significant improvement was observed after the release of the TRIPOD (43.9 to 46.7%). Studies including both model development and external validation had higher reporting quality versus those including model development only (68.1% vs. 44.8%). Among the 37 items required by the TRIPOD, 10 items were reported adequately with an adherence rate over of 80%, and the remaining 27 items had an adherence rate ranging from 2.5 to 79.3%. In addition, 11 items had a report rate lower than 25.0% and even covered key methodological aspects, including blinding assessment of predictors (2.5%), methods for model-building procedures (4.5%) and predictor handling (13.5%), how to use the model (13.5%), and presentation of model performance (14.4%). CONCLUSIONS In a 10-year span, prognostic prediction studies in obstetric care continued to be poorly reported and did not improve even after the release of the TRIPOD checklist. Substantial efforts are warranted to improve the reporting of obstetric prognostic prediction models, particularly those that adhere to the TRIPOD checklist are highly desirable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chunrong Liu
- grid.412901.f0000 0004 1770 1022Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,Hainan Healthcare Security Administration Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research, Chengdu, China
| | - Yana Qi
- grid.412901.f0000 0004 1770 1022Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,Hainan Healthcare Security Administration Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research, Chengdu, China
| | - Xinghui Liu
- grid.461863.e0000 0004 1757 9397Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, and Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China
| | - Meng Chen
- grid.461863.e0000 0004 1757 9397Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, and Key Laboratory of Birth Defects and Related Diseases of Women and Children (Sichuan University), Ministry of Education, West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China
| | - Yiquan Xiong
- grid.412901.f0000 0004 1770 1022Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,Hainan Healthcare Security Administration Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research, Chengdu, China
| | - Shiyao Huang
- grid.412901.f0000 0004 1770 1022Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,Hainan Healthcare Security Administration Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research, Chengdu, China
| | - Kang Zou
- grid.412901.f0000 0004 1770 1022Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,Hainan Healthcare Security Administration Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research, Chengdu, China
| | - Jing Tan
- grid.412901.f0000 0004 1770 1022Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,Hainan Healthcare Security Administration Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research, Chengdu, China ,grid.25073.330000 0004 1936 8227Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada ,grid.416721.70000 0001 0742 7355Biostatistics Unit, St Joseph’s Healthcare—Hamilton, Hamilton, Canada
| | - Xin Sun
- grid.412901.f0000 0004 1770 1022Chinese Evidence-Based Medicine Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, 37 Guo Xue Xiang, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,NMPA Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research and Evaluation in Hainan, Chengdu, 610041 Sichuan China ,Hainan Healthcare Security Administration Key Laboratory for Real World Data Research, Chengdu, China
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22
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Carr BL, Jahangirifar M, Nicholson AE, Li W, Mol BW, Licqurish S. Predicting postpartum haemorrhage: A systematic review of prognostic models. Aust N Z J Obstet Gynaecol 2022; 62:813-825. [PMID: 35918188 PMCID: PMC10087871 DOI: 10.1111/ajo.13599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) remains a leading cause of maternal mortality and morbidity worldwide, and the rate is increasing. Using a reliable predictive model could identify those at risk, support management and treatment, and improve maternal outcomes. AIMS To systematically identify and appraise existing prognostic models for PPH and ascertain suitability for clinical use. MATERIALS AND METHODS MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched using combinations of terms and synonyms, including 'postpartum haemorrhage', 'prognostic model', and 'risk factors'. Observational or experimental studies describing a prognostic model for risk of PPH, published in English, were included. The Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies checklist informed data extraction and the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool guided analysis. RESULTS Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria after screening 1612 records. All studies were hospital settings from eight different countries. Models were developed for women who experienced vaginal birth (n = 7), caesarean birth (n = 2), any type of birth (n = 2), hypertensive disorders (n = 1) and those with placental abnormalities (n = 4). All studies were at high risk of bias due to use of inappropriate analysis methods or omission of important statistical considerations or suboptimal validation. CONCLUSIONS No existing prognostic models for PPH are ready for clinical application. Future research is needed to externally validate existing models and potentially develop a new model that is reliable and applicable to clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bethany L Carr
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Maryam Jahangirifar
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ann E Nicholson
- Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Wentao Li
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, The School of Clinical Sciences, Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ben W Mol
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, The School of Clinical Sciences, Monash Health, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Sharon Licqurish
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.,Monash Centre for Health Research & Implementation, Monash Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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23
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de Kat AC, Hirst JE, Woodward M, Barros FC, Barsosio HC, Berkley JA, Carvalho M, Cheikh Ismail L, McGready R, Norris SA, Nosten F, Ohuma E, Tshivuila-Matala COO, Stones W, Staines Urias E, Clara Restrepo-Mendez M, Lambert A, Munim S, Winsey A, Papageorghiou AT, Bhutta ZA, Villar J, Kennedy SH, Peters SAE. Preeclampsia prediction with blood pressure measurements: A global external validation of the ALSPAC models. Pregnancy Hypertens 2022; 30:124-129. [PMID: 36179538 DOI: 10.1016/j.preghy.2022.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Revised: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The prediction of preeclampsia in pregnancy has resulted in a plethora of prognostic models. Yet, very few make it past the development stage and most fail to influence clinical practice. The timely identification of high-risk pregnant women could deliver a tailored antenatal care regimen, particularly in low-resource settings. This study externally validated and calibrated previously published models that predicted the risk of preeclampsia, based on blood pressure (BP) at multiple time points in pregnancy, in a geographically diverse population. METHODS The prospective INTERBIO-21st Fetal Study included 3,391 singleton pregnancies from Brazil, Kenya, Pakistan, South Africa, Thailand and the UK, 2012-2018. Preeclampsia prediction was based on baseline characteristics, BP and deviation from the expected BP trajectory at multiple time points in pregnancy. The prediction rules from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were implemented in the INTERBIO-21st cohort. RESULTS Model discrimination was similar to the development cohort. Performance was best with baseline characteristics and a BP measurement at 34 weeks' gestation (AUC 0.85, 95 % CI 0.80-0.90). The ALSPAC models largely overestimated the true risk of preeclampsia incidence in the INTERBIO-21st cohort. CONCLUSIONS After recalibration, these prediction models could potentially serve as a risk stratifying tool to help identify women who might benefit from increased surveillance during pregnancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annelien C de Kat
- The George Institute for Global Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jane E Hirst
- The George Institute for Global Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Mark Woodward
- The George Institute for Global Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
| | - Fernando C Barros
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde e Comportamento, Universidade Católica de Pelotas, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Hellen C Barsosio
- KEMRI-Coast Centre for Geographical Medicine and Research, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - James A Berkley
- KEMRI-Coast Centre for Geographical Medicine and Research, Kilifi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine Research, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Maria Carvalho
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Aga Khan University, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Leila Cheikh Ismail
- Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
| | - Rose McGready
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine Research, Oxford, United Kingdom; Shoklo Malaria Research Unit, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Mae Sot, Thailand
| | - Shane A Norris
- SAMRC Developmental Pathways for Health Research Unit, Department of Paediatrics & Child Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Francois Nosten
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine Research, Oxford, United Kingdom; Shoklo Malaria Research Unit, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Mae Sot, Thailand
| | - Eric Ohuma
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive & Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom
| | - Chrystelle O O Tshivuila-Matala
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; SAMRC Developmental Pathways for Health Research Unit, Department of Paediatrics & Child Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - William Stones
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Aga Khan University, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Eleonora Staines Urias
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Ann Lambert
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Shama Munim
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Division of Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Adele Winsey
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Aris T Papageorghiou
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford Maternal and Perinatal Health Institute (OMPHI), Green Templeton College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Center for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Canada
| | - Jose Villar
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford Maternal and Perinatal Health Institute (OMPHI), Green Templeton College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen H Kennedy
- Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford Maternal and Perinatal Health Institute (OMPHI), Green Templeton College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Sanne A E Peters
- The George Institute for Global Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Development of prognostic model for preterm birth using machine learning in a population-based cohort of Western Australia births between 1980 and 2015. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19153. [PMID: 36352095 PMCID: PMC9646808 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-23782-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Accepted: 11/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Preterm birth is a global public health problem with a significant burden on the individuals affected. The study aimed to extend current research on preterm birth prognostic model development by developing and internally validating models using machine learning classification algorithms and population-based routinely collected data in Western Australia. The longitudinal retrospective cohort study involved all births in Western Australia between 1980 and 2015, and the analytic sample contains 81,974 (8.6%) preterm births (< 37 weeks of gestation). Prediction models for preterm birth were developed using regularised logistic regression, decision trees, Random Forests, extreme gradient boosting, and multi-layer perceptron (MLP). Predictors included maternal socio-demographics and medical conditions, current and past pregnancy complications, and family history. Class weight was applied to handle imbalanced outcomes and stratified tenfold cross-validation was used to reduce overfitting. Close to half of the preterm births (49.1% at 5% FPR, 95% CI 48.9%,49.5%) were correctly classified by the best performing classifier (MLP) for all women when current pregnancy information was available. The sensitivity was boosted to 52.7% (95% CI 52.1%,53.3%) after including past obstetric history in a sub-population of births from multiparous women. Around half of the preterm birth can be identified antenatally at high specificity using population-based routinely collected maternal and pregnancy data. The performance of the prediction models depends on the available predictor pool that is individual and time specific.
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25
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Feleke SF, Anteneh ZA, Wassie GT, Yalew AK, Dessie AM. Developing and validating a risk prediction model for preterm birth at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, North-West Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e061061. [PMID: 36167381 PMCID: PMC9516143 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a risk prediction model for the prediction of preterm birth using maternal characteristics. DESIGN This was a retrospective follow-up study. Data were coded and entered into EpiData, V.3.02, and were analysed using R statistical programming language V.4.0.4 for further processing and analysis. Bivariable logistic regression was used to identify the relationship between each predictor and preterm birth. Variables with p≤0.25 from the bivariable analysis were entered into a backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression model, and significant variables (p<0.05) were retained in the multivariable model. Model accuracy and goodness of fit were assessed by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (discrimination) and calibration plot (calibration), respectively. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective study was conducted among 1260 pregnant women who did prenatal care and finally delivered at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialised Hospital, Bahir Dar city, north-west Ethiopia, from 30 January 2019 to 30 January 2021. RESULTS Residence, gravidity, haemoglobin <11 mg/dL, early rupture of membranes, antepartum haemorrhage and pregnancy-induced hypertension remained in the final multivariable prediction model. The area under the curve of the model was 0.816 (95% CI 0.779 to 0.856). CONCLUSION This study showed the possibility of predicting preterm birth using maternal characteristics during pregnancy. Thus, use of this model could help identify pregnant women at a higher risk of having a preterm birth to be linked to a centre.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Bahir Dar University College of Medical and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
| | - Gizachew Tadesse Wassie
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Bahir Dar University College of Medical and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
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Cook K, Perkins NJ, Schisterman E, Haneuse S. A multistate competing risks framework for preconception prediction of pregnancy outcomes. BMC Med Res Methodol 2022; 22:156. [PMID: 35637547 PMCID: PMC9150288 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-022-01589-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Preconception pregnancy risk profiles—characterizing the likelihood that a pregnancy attempt results in a full-term birth, preterm birth, clinical pregnancy loss, or failure to conceive—can provide critical information during the early stages of a pregnancy attempt, when obstetricians are best positioned to intervene to improve the chances of successful conception and full-term live birth. Yet the task of constructing and validating risk assessment tools for this earlier intervention window is complicated by several statistical features: the final outcome of the pregnancy attempt is multinomial in nature, and it summarizes the results of two intermediate stages, conception and gestation, whose outcomes are subject to competing risks, measured on different time scales, and governed by different biological processes. In light of this complexity, existing pregnancy risk assessment tools largely focus on predicting a single adverse pregnancy outcome, and make these predictions at some later, post-conception time point. Methods We reframe the individual pregnancy attempt as a multistate model comprised of two nested multinomial prediction tasks: one corresponding to conception and the other to the subsequent outcome of that pregnancy. We discuss the estimation of this model in the presence of multiple stages of outcome missingness and then introduce an inverse-probability-weighted Hypervolume Under the Manifold statistic to validate the resulting multivariate risk scores. Finally, we use data from the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction (EAGeR) trial to illustrate how this multistate competing risks framework might be utilized in practice to construct and validate a preconception pregnancy risk assessment tool. Results In the EAGeR study population, the resulting risk profiles are able to meaningfully discriminate between the four pregnancy attempt outcomes of interest and represent a significant improvement over classification by random chance. Conclusions As illustrated in our analysis of the EAGeR data, our proposed prediction framework expands the pregnancy risk assessment task in two key ways—by considering a broader array of pregnancy outcomes and by providing the predictions at an earlier, preconception intervention window—providing obstetricians and their patients with more information and opportunities to successfully guide pregnancy attempts.
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Bester M, Joshi R, Mischi M, van Laar JOEH, Vullings R. Longitudinally Tracking Maternal Autonomic Modulation During Normal Pregnancy With Comprehensive Heart Rate Variability Analyses. Front Physiol 2022; 13:874684. [PMID: 35615673 PMCID: PMC9125027 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2022.874684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Changes in the maternal autonomic nervous system are essential in facilitating the physiological changes that pregnancy necessitates. Insufficient autonomic adaptation is linked to complications such as hypertensive diseases of pregnancy. Consequently, tracking autonomic modulation during progressing pregnancy could allow for the early detection of emerging deteriorations in maternal health. Autonomic modulation can be longitudinally and unobtrusively monitored by assessing heart rate variability (HRV). Yet, changes in maternal HRV (mHRV) throughout pregnancy remain poorly understood. In previous studies, mHRV is typically assessed only once per trimester with standard HRV features. However, since gestational changes are complex and dynamic, assessing mHRV comprehensively and more frequently may better showcase the changing autonomic modulation over pregnancy. Subsequently, we longitudinally (median sessions = 8) assess mHRV in 29 healthy pregnancies with features that assess sympathetic and parasympathetic activity, as well as heart rate (HR) complexity, HR responsiveness and HR fragmentation. We find that vagal activity, HR complexity, HR responsiveness, and HR fragmentation significantly decrease. Their associated effect sizes are small, suggesting that the increasing demands of advancing gestation are well tolerated. Furthermore, we find a notable change in autonomic activity during the transition from the second to third trimester, highlighting the dynamic nature of changes in pregnancy. Lastly, while we saw the expected rise in mean HR with gestational age, we also observed increased autonomic deceleration activity, seemingly to counter this rising mean HR. These results are an important step towards gaining insights into gestational physiology as well as tracking maternal health via mHRV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maretha Bester
- Department of Electrical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands
- Patient Care and Monitoring, Philips Research, Eindhoven, Netherlands
- *Correspondence: Maretha Bester,
| | - Rohan Joshi
- Patient Care and Monitoring, Philips Research, Eindhoven, Netherlands
| | - Massimo Mischi
- Department of Electrical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands
| | - Judith O. E. H. van Laar
- Department of Electrical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Máxima Medical Centrum, Veldhoven, Netherlands
| | - Rik Vullings
- Department of Electrical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands
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Costantine MM, Sandoval G, Grobman WA, Bailit JL, Reddy UM, Wapner RJ, Varner MW, Thorp JM, Caritis SN, Prasad M, Tita AT, Sorokin Y, Rouse DJ, Blackwell SC, Tolosa JE. A Model to Predict Vaginal Delivery and Maternal and Neonatal Morbidity in Low-Risk Nulliparous Patients at Term. Am J Perinatol 2022; 39:786-796. [PMID: 33075842 PMCID: PMC8053722 DOI: 10.1055/s-0040-1718704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to develop and validate a model to predict the probability of vaginal delivery (VD) in low-risk term nulliparous patients, and to determine whether it can predict the risk of severe maternal and neonatal morbidity. METHODS Secondary analysis of an obstetric cohort of patients and their neonates born in 25 hospitals across the United States (n = 115,502). Trained and certified research personnel abstracted the maternal and neonatal records. Nulliparous patients with singleton, nonanomalous vertex fetuses, admitted with an intent for VD ≥ 37 weeks were included in this analysis. Patients in active labor (cervical exam > 5 cm), those with prior cesarean and other comorbidities were excluded. Eligible patients were randomly divided into a training and test sets. Based on the training set, and using factors available at the time of admission for delivery, we developed and validated a logistic regression model to predict the probability of VD, and then estimated the prevalences of severe morbidity according to the predicted probability of VD. RESULTS A total of 19,611 patients were included. Based on the training set (n = 9,739), a logistic regression model was developed that included maternal age, body mass index (BMI), cervical dilatation, and gestational age on admission. The model was internally validated on the test set (n = 9,872 patients) and yielded a receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.70-0.72). Based on a subset of 18,803 patients with calculated predicted probabilities, we demonstrated that the prevalences of severe morbidity decreased as the predicted probability of VD increased (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION In a large cohort of low-risk nulliparous patients in early labor or undergoing induction of labor, at term with singleton gestations, we developed and validated a model to calculate the probability of VD, and maternal and neonatal morbidity. If externally validated, this calculator may be clinically useful in helping to direct level of care, staffing, and adjustment for case-mix among various systems. KEY POINTS · A model to predict the probability of vaginal delivery in low-risk nulliparous patients at term.. · The model also predicts the risk of severe maternal and neonatal morbidity.. · The prevalences of severe morbidity decrease as the probability of vaginal delivery increases..
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Affiliation(s)
- Maged M. Costantine
- Departments of Obstetrics and Gynecology of University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas
| | - Grecio Sandoval
- The George Washington University Biostatistics Center, Washington, Dist. of Columbia
| | - William A. Grobman
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | - Jennifer L. Bailit
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, MetroHealth Medical Center-Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Uma M. Reddy
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Ronald J. Wapner
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Columbia University, New York, New York
| | - Michael W. Varner
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Utah Health Sciences Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
| | - John M. Thorp
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
| | - Steve N. Caritis
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
| | - Mona Prasad
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio
| | - Alan T.N. Tita
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama
| | - Yoram Sorokin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan
| | - Dwight J. Rouse
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Sean C. Blackwell
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, McGovern Medical School-Children’s Memorial Hermann Hospital, Houston, Texas
| | - Jorge E. Tolosa
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon
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Wie JH, Lee SJ, Choi SK, Jo YS, Hwang HS, Park MH, Kim YH, Shin JE, Kil KC, Kim SM, Choi BS, Hong H, Seol HJ, Won HS, Ko HS, Na S. Prediction of Emergency Cesarean Section Using Machine Learning Methods: Development and External Validation of a Nationwide Multicenter Dataset in Republic of Korea. Life (Basel) 2022; 12:life12040604. [PMID: 35455095 PMCID: PMC9033083 DOI: 10.3390/life12040604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Revised: 04/05/2022] [Accepted: 04/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
This study was a multicenter retrospective cohort study of term nulliparous women who underwent labor, and was conducted to develop an automated machine learning model for prediction of emergent cesarean section (CS) before onset of labor. Nine machine learning methods of logistic regression, random forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), gradient boosting, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), Voting, and Stacking were applied and compared for prediction of emergent CS during active labor. External validation was performed using a nationwide multicenter dataset for Korean fetal growth. A total of 6549 term nulliparous women was included in the analysis, and the emergent CS rate was 16.1%. The C-statistics values for KNN, Voting, XGBoost, Stacking, gradient boosting, random forest, LGBM, logistic regression, and SVM were 0.6, 0.69, 0.64, 0.59, 0.66, 0.68, 0.68, 0.7, and 0.69, respectively. The logistic regression model showed the best predictive performance with an accuracy of 0.78. The machine learning model identified nine significant variables of maternal age, height, weight at pre-pregnancy, pregnancy-associated hypertension, gestational age, and fetal sonographic findings. The C-statistic value for the logistic regression machine learning model in the external validation set (1391 term nulliparous women) was 0.69, with an overall accuracy of 0.68, a specificity of 0.83, and a sensitivity of 0.41. Machine learning algorithms with clinical and sonographic parameters at near term could be useful tools to predict individual risk of emergent CS during active labor in nulliparous women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeong Ha Wie
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Eunpyeong St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 03312, Korea;
| | - Se Jin Lee
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Kangwon National University Hospital, Kangwon National University School of Medicine, Chuncheon 24289, Korea;
| | - Sae Kyung Choi
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 21431, Korea;
| | - Yun Sung Jo
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, St. Vincent’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 16247, Korea;
| | - Han Sung Hwang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Research Institute of Medical Science, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul 05030, Korea;
| | - Mi Hye Park
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ewha Medical Center, Ewha Medical Institute, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul 07804, Korea;
| | - Yeon Hee Kim
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Uijeongbu St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 11765, Korea;
| | - Jae Eun Shin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Bucheon St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 14647, Korea;
| | - Ki Cheol Kil
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Yeouido St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 07345, Korea;
| | - Su Mi Kim
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Daejeon St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 34943, Korea;
| | - Bong Suk Choi
- Innerwave Co., Ltd., Seoul 08510, Korea; (B.S.C.); (H.H.)
| | - Hanul Hong
- Innerwave Co., Ltd., Seoul 08510, Korea; (B.S.C.); (H.H.)
| | - Hyun-Joo Seol
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, School of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 05278, Korea;
| | - Hye-Sung Won
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Korea;
| | - Hyun Sun Ko
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 06591, Korea
- Correspondence: (H.S.K.); (S.N.)
| | - Sunghun Na
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Kangwon National University Hospital, Kangwon National University School of Medicine, Chuncheon 24289, Korea;
- Correspondence: (H.S.K.); (S.N.)
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Dash K, Goodacre S, Sutton L. Composite Outcomes in Clinical Prediction Modeling: Are We Trying to Predict Apples and Oranges? Ann Emerg Med 2022; 80:12-19. [PMID: 35339284 DOI: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2022.01.046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2021] [Revised: 01/19/2022] [Accepted: 01/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Composite outcomes are widely used in clinical research. Existing literature has considered the pros and cons of composite outcomes in clinical trials, but their extensive use in clinical prediction has received much less attention. Clinical prediction assists decision-making by directing patients with higher risks of adverse outcomes toward interventions that provide the greatest benefits to those at the greatest risk. In this article, we summarize our existing understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of composite outcomes, consider how these relate to clinical prediction, and highlight the problem of key predictors having markedly different associations with individual components of the composite outcome. We suggest that a "composite outcome fallacy" may occur when a clinical prediction model is based on strong associations between key predictors and one component of a composite outcome (such as mortality) and used to direct patients toward intervention when these predictors actually have an inverse association with a more relevant component of the composite outcome (such as the use of a lifesaving intervention). We propose that clinical prediction scores using composite outcomes should report their accuracy for key components of the composite outcome and examine for inconsistencies among predictor variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kieran Dash
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom.
| | - Steve Goodacre
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
| | - Laura Sutton
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
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Takada T, Hoogland J, van Lieshout C, Schuit E, Collins GS, Moons KGM, Reitsma JB. Accuracy of approximations to recover incompletely reported logistic regression models depended on other available information. J Clin Epidemiol 2022; 143:81-90. [PMID: 34863904 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.11.033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2021] [Revised: 11/05/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To provide approximations to recover the full regression equation across different scenarios of incompletely reported prediction models that were developed from binary logistic regression. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING In a case study, we considered four common scenarios and illustrated their corresponding approximations: (A) Missing: the intercept, Available: the regression coefficients of predictors, overall frequency of the outcome and descriptive statistics of the predictors; (B) Missing: regression coefficients and the intercept, Available: a simplified score; (C) Missing: regression coefficients and the intercept, Available: a nomogram; (D) Missing: regression coefficients and the intercept, Available: a web calculator. RESULTS In the scenario A, a simplified approach based on the predicted probability corresponding to the average linear predictor was inaccurate. An approximation based on the overall outcome frequency and an approximation of the linear predictor distribution was more accurate, however, the appropriateness of the underlying assumptions cannot be verified in practice. In the scenario B, the recovered equation was inaccurate due to rounding and categorization of risk scores. In the scenarios C and D, the full regression equation could be recovered with minimal error. CONCLUSION The accuracy of the approximations in recovering the regression equation varied depending on the available information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toshihiko Takada
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Department of General Medicine, Shirakawa Satellite for Teaching And Research (STAR), Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Jeroen Hoogland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Chris van Lieshout
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Ewoud Schuit
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Johannes B Reitsma
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
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Dang X, Zhang L, Bao Y, Xu J, Du H, Wang S, Liu Y, Deng D, Chen S, Zeng W, Feng L, Liu H. Developing and Validating Nomogram to Predict Severe Postpartum Hemorrhage in Women With Placenta Previa Undergoing Cesarean Delivery: A Multicenter Retrospective Case-Control Study. Front Med (Lausanne) 2022; 8:789529. [PMID: 35223881 PMCID: PMC8873861 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.789529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 12/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Developing and validating nomogram to predict severe postpartum hemorrhage (SPPH) in women with placenta previa (PP) undergoing cesarean delivery. Methods We conducted a multicenter retrospective case-control study in five hospitals. In this study, 865 patients from January, 2018 to June, 2020 were enrolled in the development cohort, and 307 patients from July, 2020 to June, 2021 were enrolled in the validation cohort. Independent risk factors for SPPH were obtained by using the multivariate logistic regression, and preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram were developed, respectively. We compared the discrimination, calibration, and net benefit of the two nomograms in the development cohort and validation cohort. Then, we tested whether the intraoperative nomogram could be used before operation. Results There were 204 patients (23.58%) in development cohort and 80 patients (26.06%) in validation cohort experienced SPPH. In development cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram were 0.831 (95% CI, 0.804, 0.855) and 0.880 (95% CI, 0.854, 0.905), respectively. In validation cohort, the AUC of the preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram were 0.825 (95% CI, 0.772, 0.877) and 0.853 (95% CI, 0.808, 0.898), respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.839 (95% CI, 0.789, 0.888) when the intraoperative nomogram was used before operation. Conclusion We developed the preoperative nomogram and intraoperative nomogram to predict the risk of SPPH in women with PP undergoing cesarean delivery. By comparing the discrimination, calibration, and net benefit of the two nomograms in the development cohort and validation cohort, we think that the intraoperative nomogram performed better. Moreover, application of the intraoperative nomogram before operation can still achieve good prediction effect, which can be improved if the severity of placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) can be accurately distinguished preoperatively. We expect to conduct further prospective external validation studies on the intraoperative nomogram to evaluate its application value.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaohe Dang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Li Zhang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Wuhan, China
| | - Yindi Bao
- Department of Obstetrics, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jie Xu
- Department of Obstetrics, Xianning Central Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning, China
| | - Hui Du
- Department of Obstetrics, Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Hubei Province, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Shaoshuai Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Yanyan Liu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Dongrui Deng
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Suhua Chen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Wanjiang Zeng
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Ling Feng
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Haiyi Liu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
- *Correspondence: Haiyi Liu
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Haller MC, Aschauer C, Wallisch C, Leffondré K, van Smeden M, Oberbauer R, Heinze G. Prediction models for living organ transplantation are poorly developed, reported and validated: a systematic review. J Clin Epidemiol 2022; 145:126-135. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.01.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2021] [Revised: 01/27/2022] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
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Chaemsaithong P, Sahota DS, Poon LC. First trimester preeclampsia screening and prediction. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2022; 226:S1071-S1097.e2. [PMID: 32682859 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajog.2020.07.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 52.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2020] [Revised: 06/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Early-onset disease requiring preterm delivery is associated with a higher risk of complications in both mothers and babies. Evidence suggests that the administration of low-dose aspirin initiated before 16 weeks' gestation significantly reduces the rate of preterm preeclampsia. Therefore, it is important to identify pregnant women at risk of developing preeclampsia during the first trimester of pregnancy, thus allowing timely therapeutic intervention. Several professional organizations such as the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) have proposed screening for preeclampsia based on maternal risk factors. The approach recommended by ACOG and NICE essentially treats each risk factor as a separate screening test with additive detection rate and screen-positive rate. Evidence has shown that preeclampsia screening based on the NICE and ACOG approach has suboptimal performance, as the NICE recommendation only achieves detection rates of 41% and 34%, with a 10% false-positive rate, for preterm and term preeclampsia, respectively. Screening based on the 2013 ACOG recommendation can only achieve detection rates of 5% and 2% for preterm and term preeclampsia, respectively, with a 0.2% false-positive rate. Various first trimester prediction models have been developed. Most of them have not undergone or failed external validation. However, it is worthy of note that the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) first trimester prediction model (namely the triple test), which consists of a combination of maternal factors and measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and serum placental growth factor, has undergone successful internal and external validation. The FMF triple test has detection rates of 90% and 75% for the prediction of early and preterm preeclampsia, respectively, with a 10% false-positive rate. Such performance of screening is superior to that of the traditional method by maternal risk factors alone. The use of the FMF prediction model, followed by the administration of low-dose aspirin, has been shown to reduce the rate of preterm preeclampsia by 62%. The number needed to screen to prevent 1 case of preterm preeclampsia by the FMF triple test is 250. The key to maintaining optimal screening performance is to establish standardized protocols for biomarker measurements and regular biomarker quality assessment, as inaccurate measurement can affect screening performance. Tools frequently used to assess quality control include the cumulative sum and target plot. Cumulative sum is a sensitive method to detect small shifts over time, and point of shift can be easily identified. Target plot is a tool to evaluate deviation from the expected multiple of median and the expected median of standard deviation. Target plot is easy to interpret and visualize. However, it is insensitive to detecting small deviations. Adherence to well-defined protocols for the measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor is required. This article summarizes the existing literature on the different methods, recommendations by professional organizations, quality assessment of different components of risk assessment, and clinical implementation of the first trimester screening for preeclampsia.
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Allotey J, Whittle R, Snell KIE, Smuk M, Townsend R, von Dadelszen P, Heazell AEP, Magee L, Smith GCS, Sandall J, Thilaganathan B, Zamora J, Riley RD, Khalil A, Thangaratinam S. External validation of prognostic models to predict stillbirth using International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network database: individual participant data meta-analysis. ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2022; 59:209-219. [PMID: 34405928 DOI: 10.1002/uog.23757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Revised: 06/30/2021] [Accepted: 08/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Stillbirth is a potentially preventable complication of pregnancy. Identifying women at high risk of stillbirth can guide decisions on the need for closer surveillance and timing of delivery in order to prevent fetal death. Prognostic models have been developed to predict the risk of stillbirth, but none has yet been validated externally. In this study, we externally validated published prediction models for stillbirth using individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis to assess their predictive performance. METHODS MEDLINE, EMBASE, DH-DATA and AMED databases were searched from inception to December 2020 to identify studies reporting stillbirth prediction models. Studies that developed or updated prediction models for stillbirth for use at any time during pregnancy were included. IPD from cohorts within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network were used to validate externally the identified prediction models whose individual variables were available in the IPD. The risk of bias of the models and cohorts was assessed using the Prediction study Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). The discriminative performance of the models was evaluated using the C-statistic, and calibration was assessed using calibration plots, calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large. Performance measures were estimated separately in each cohort, as well as summarized across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical utility was assessed using net benefit. RESULTS Seventeen studies reporting the development of 40 prognostic models for stillbirth were identified. None of the models had been previously validated externally, and the full model equation was reported for only one-fifth (20%, 8/40) of the models. External validation was possible for three of these models, using IPD from 19 cohorts (491 201 pregnant women) within the IPPIC Network database. Based on evaluation of the model development studies, all three models had an overall high risk of bias, according to PROBAST. In the IPD meta-analysis, the models had summary C-statistics ranging from 0.53 to 0.65 and summary calibration slopes ranging from 0.40 to 0.88, with risk predictions that were generally too extreme compared with the observed risks. The models had little to no clinical utility, as assessed by net benefit. However, there remained uncertainty in the performance of some models due to small available sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS The three validated stillbirth prediction models showed generally poor and uncertain predictive performance in new data, with limited evidence to support their clinical application. The findings suggest methodological shortcomings in their development, including overfitting. Further research is needed to further validate these and other models, identify stronger prognostic factors and develop more robust prediction models. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- J Allotey
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Global Women's Health, Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - R Whittle
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - K I E Snell
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - M Smuk
- Medical Statistics Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - R Townsend
- Fetal Medicine Unit, St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, University of London, London, UK
- Vascular Biology Research Centre, Molecular and Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St George's University of London, London, UK
| | - P von Dadelszen
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - A E P Heazell
- Maternal and Fetal Health Research Centre, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - L Magee
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - G C S Smith
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK
| | - J Sandall
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
- Health Service and Population Research Department, Centre for Implementation Science, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK
| | - B Thilaganathan
- Fetal Medicine Unit, St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, University of London, London, UK
- Vascular Biology Research Centre, Molecular and Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St George's University of London, London, UK
| | - J Zamora
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Global Women's Health, Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Clinical Biostatistics Unit, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal (IRYCIS), Madrid, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - R D Riley
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - A Khalil
- Fetal Medicine Unit, St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, University of London, London, UK
- Vascular Biology Research Centre, Molecular and Clinical Sciences Research Institute, St George's University of London, London, UK
| | - S Thangaratinam
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Global Women's Health, Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- Birmingham Women's and Children's NHS Foundation Trust, Birmingham, UK
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Dang X, Xiong G, Fan C, He Y, Sun G, Wang S, Liu Y, Zhang L, Bao Y, Xu J, Du H, Deng D, Chen S, Li Y, Gong X, Wu Y, Wu J, Lin X, Qiao F, Zeng W, Feng L, Liu H. Systematic external evaluation of four preoperative risk prediction models for severe postpartum hemorrhage in patients with placenta previa: a multicenter retrospective study. J Gynecol Obstet Hum Reprod 2022; 51:102333. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jogoh.2022.102333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Revised: 01/19/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2022] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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Zheutlin AB, Vieira L, Shewcraft RA, Li S, Wang Z, Schadt E, Gross S, Dolan SM, Stone J, Schadt E, Li L. Improving postpartum hemorrhage risk prediction using longitudinal electronic medical records. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2022; 29:296-305. [PMID: 34405866 PMCID: PMC8757294 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocab161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2021] [Revised: 06/30/2021] [Accepted: 07/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) remains a leading cause of preventable maternal mortality in the United States. We sought to develop a novel risk assessment tool and compare its accuracy to tools used in current practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS We used a PPH digital phenotype that we developed and validated previously to identify 6639 PPH deliveries from our delivery cohort (N = 70 948). Using a vast array of known and potential risk factors extracted from electronic medical records available prior to delivery, we trained a gradient boosting model in a subset of our cohort. In a held-out test sample, we compared performance of our model with 3 clinical risk-assessment tools and 1 previously published model. RESULTS Our 24-feature model achieved an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.72), higher than all other tools (research-based AUROC, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.66-0.69]; clinical AUROCs, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.54-0.56] to 0.61 [95% CI, 0.59-0.62]). Five features were novel, including red blood cell indices and infection markers measured upon admission. Additionally, we identified inflection points for vital signs and labs where risk rose substantially. Most notably, patients with median intrapartum systolic blood pressure above 132 mm Hg had an 11% (95% CI, 8%-13%) median increase in relative risk for PPH. CONCLUSIONS We developed a novel approach for predicting PPH and identified clinical feature thresholds that can guide intrapartum monitoring for PPH risk. These results suggest that our model is an excellent candidate for prospective evaluation and could ultimately reduce PPH morbidity and mortality through early detection and prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Luciana Vieira
- Division of Maternal Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Science, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Susan Gross
- Sema4, Stamford, Connecticut, USA
- Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Siobhan M Dolan
- Division of Maternal Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Science, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
- Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Joanne Stone
- Division of Maternal Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology, and Reproductive Science, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Eric Schadt
- Sema4, Stamford, Connecticut, USA
- Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Li Li
- Sema4, Stamford, Connecticut, USA
- Department of Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
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Berkelmans G, Read S, Gudbjörnsdottir S, Wild S, Franzen S, van der Graaf Y, Eliasson B, Visseren F, Paynter N, Dorresteijn J. Population median imputation was noninferior to complex approaches for imputing missing values in cardiovascular prediction models in clinical practice. J Clin Epidemiol 2022; 145:70-80. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.01.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2021] [Revised: 12/05/2021] [Accepted: 01/17/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
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Giannakou K. Prediction of pre-eclampsia. Obstet Med 2021; 14:220-224. [PMID: 34880934 DOI: 10.1177/1753495x20984015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 12/06/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of neonatal and maternal mortality and morbidity that complicates approximately 2-8% of all pregnancies worldwide. The precise cause of pre-eclampsia is not completely understood, with several environmental, genetic, and maternal factors involved in its pathogenesis and pathophysiology. An accurate predictor of pre-eclampsia will facilitate early recognition, close surveillance according to the individual risk and early intervention, and reduce the negative consequences of the disorder. Current evidence shows that no single test predicts pre-eclampsia with sufficient accuracy to be clinically useful. A combination of markers into multiparametric models may provide a more useful and feasible predictive tool for pre-eclampsia screening in the routine care setting than a test of either component alone. This review presents a summary of the current advances on prediction of pre-eclampsia, highlighting their performance and applicability. Key priorities when conducting research on predicting pre-eclampsia are also analyzed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Konstantinos Giannakou
- Department of Health Sciences, School of Sciences, European University Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
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van Beek PE, Groenendaal F, Onland W, Koole S, Dijk PH, Dijkman KP, van den Dungen F, van Heijst A, Kornelisse RF, Schuerman F, van Westering-Kroon E, Witlox R, Andriessen P, Schuit E. Prognostic model for predicting survival in very preterm infants: an external validation study. BJOG 2021; 129:529-538. [PMID: 34779118 DOI: 10.1111/1471-0528.17010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To perform a temporal and geographical validation of a prognostic model, considered of highest methodological quality in a recently published systematic review, for predicting survival in very preterm infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. The original model was developed in the UK and included gestational age, birthweight and gender. DESIGN External validation study in a population-based cohort. SETTING Dutch neonatal wards. POPULATION OR SAMPLE All admitted white, singleton infants born between 23+0 and 32+6 weeks of gestation between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019. Additionally, the model's performance was assessed in four populations of admitted infants born between 24+0 and 31+6 weeks of gestation: white singletons, non-white singletons, all singletons and all multiples. METHODS The original model was applied in all five validation sets. Model performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination and, if indicated, it was updated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Calibration (calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope) and discrimination (c statistic). RESULTS Out of 6092 infants, 5659 (92.9%) survived. The model showed good external validity as indicated by good discrimination (c statistic 0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.84) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large 0.003, calibration slope 0.92, 95% CI 0.84-1.00). The model also showed good external validity in the other singleton populations, but required a small intercept update in the multiples population. CONCLUSIONS A high-quality prognostic model predicting survival in very preterm infants had good external validity in an independent, nationwide cohort. The accurate performance of the model indicates that after impact assessment, implementation of the model in clinical practice in the neonatal intensive care unit could be considered. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT A high-quality model predicting survival in very preterm infants is externally valid in an independent cohort.
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Affiliation(s)
- P E van Beek
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Centre, Veldhoven, The Netherlands
| | - F Groenendaal
- Department of Neonatology, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, University Medical Centre Utrecht and Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - W Onland
- Department of Neonatology, Emma Children's Hospital, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, VU University Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - S Koole
- The Netherlands Perinatal Registry, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - P H Dijk
- Department of Neonatology, Beatrix Children's Hospital, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - K P Dijkman
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Centre, Veldhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Fam van den Dungen
- Department of Neonatology, Emma Children's Hospital, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, VU University Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Afj van Heijst
- Department of Neonatology, Amalia Children's Hospital, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - R F Kornelisse
- Department of Paediatrics, Division of Neonatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Faba Schuerman
- Department of Neonatology, Isala Clinics, Zwolle, The Netherlands
| | - E van Westering-Kroon
- Department of Neonatology, Maastricht University Medical Centre, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Rsgm Witlox
- Department of Neonatology, Willem-Alexander Children's Hospital, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - P Andriessen
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Centre, Veldhoven, The Netherlands.,Department of Applied Physics, School of Medical Physics and Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
| | - E Schuit
- Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Ruppel H, Liu VX, Kipnis P, Hedderson MM, Greenberg M, Forquer H, Lawson B, Escobar GJ. Development and Validation of an Obstetric Comorbidity Risk Score for Clinical Use. WOMEN'S HEALTH REPORTS (NEW ROCHELLE, N.Y.) 2021; 2:507-515. [PMID: 34841397 PMCID: PMC8617587 DOI: 10.1089/whr.2021.0046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Background: A comorbidity summary score may support early and systematic identification of women at high risk for adverse obstetric outcomes. The objective of this study was to conduct the initial development and validation of an obstetrics comorbidity risk score for automated implementation in the electronic health record (EHR) for clinical use. Methods: The score was developed and validated using EHR data for a retrospective cohort of pregnancies with delivery between 2010 and 2018 at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated health care system. The outcome used for model development consisted of adverse obstetric events from delivery hospitalization (e.g., eclampsia, hemorrhage, death). Candidate predictors included maternal age, parity, multiple gestation, and any maternal diagnoses assigned in health care encounters in the 12 months before admission for delivery. We used penalized regression for variable selection, logistic regression to fit the model, and internal validation for model evaluation. We also evaluated prenatal model performance at 18 weeks of pregnancy. Results: The development cohort (n = 227,405 pregnancies) had an outcome rate of 3.8% and the validation cohort (n = 41,683) had an outcome rate of 2.9%. Of 276 candidate predictors, 37 were included in the final model. The final model had a validation c-statistic of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.73). When evaluated at 18 weeks of pregnancy, discrimination was modestly diminished (c-statistic 0.68 [95% CI 0.67-0.70]). Conclusions: The obstetric comorbidity score demonstrated good discrimination for adverse obstetric outcomes. After additional appropriate validation, the score can be automated in the EHR to support early identification of high-risk women and assist efforts to ensure risk-appropriate maternal care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Halley Ruppel
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Vincent X. Liu
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Patricia Kipnis
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Monique M. Hedderson
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Mara Greenberg
- East Bay Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Heather Forquer
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Brian Lawson
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
| | - Gabriel J. Escobar
- Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, USA
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Tesfalul MA, Feuer SK, Castillo E, Coleman-Phox K, O'Leary A, Kuppermann M. Patient and provider perspectives on preterm birth risk assessment and communication. PATIENT EDUCATION AND COUNSELING 2021; 104:2814-2823. [PMID: 33892976 PMCID: PMC9005337 DOI: 10.1016/j.pec.2021.03.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2020] [Revised: 03/10/2021] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To describe and compare how obstetric patients and care providers view preterm birth risk assessment and communication. METHODS We conducted eight focus groups with obstetric patients (n = 35) and 16 qualitative interviews with obstetric providers. Grounded theory was used to identify and analyze themes. RESULTS Patients' knowledge about preterm birth varied greatly. Similar benefits and risks of preterm birth risk counseling were discussed by patients and providers with notable exceptions: patients cited preparedness as a benefit and providers cited maternal blame, patient alienation, and estimate uncertainty as potential risks. Most patients expressed a desire to know their personalized preterm birth risk during pregnancy. Providers differed in whether they offer universal versus selective, and quantitative versus qualitative, preterm birth risk counseling. Many providers expressed concern about discussing social and structural risk factors for preterm birth. CONCLUSION While many patients desired knowing their personalized preterm birth risk, prenatal care providers' disclosure practices vary because of uncertainty of estimates, concerns about negative consequences and challenges of addressing systemic inequities and social determinants of health. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS Given the existing asymmetry of information about preterm birth risk, providers should consider patient preferences regarding and potential benefits and risks of such disclosure in their practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martha A Tesfalul
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, USA; California Preterm Birth Initiative, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
| | - Sky K Feuer
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, USA; California Preterm Birth Initiative, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Esperanza Castillo
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, USA; California Preterm Birth Initiative, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Kimberly Coleman-Phox
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, USA; California Preterm Birth Initiative, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Allison O'Leary
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, USA; California Preterm Birth Initiative, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Miriam Kuppermann
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, USA; California Preterm Birth Initiative, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
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Allotey J, Snell KI, Smuk M, Hooper R, Chan CL, Ahmed A, Chappell LC, von Dadelszen P, Dodds J, Green M, Kenny L, Khalil A, Khan KS, Mol BW, Myers J, Poston L, Thilaganathan B, Staff AC, Smith GC, Ganzevoort W, Laivuori H, Odibo AO, Ramírez JA, Kingdom J, Daskalakis G, Farrar D, Baschat AA, Seed PT, Prefumo F, da Silva Costa F, Groen H, Audibert F, Masse J, Skråstad RB, Salvesen KÅ, Haavaldsen C, Nagata C, Rumbold AR, Heinonen S, Askie LM, Smits LJ, Vinter CA, Magnus PM, Eero K, Villa PM, Jenum AK, Andersen LB, Norman JE, Ohkuchi A, Eskild A, Bhattacharya S, McAuliffe FM, Galindo A, Herraiz I, Carbillon L, Klipstein-Grobusch K, Yeo S, Teede HJ, Browne JL, Moons KG, Riley RD, Thangaratinam S. Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis. Health Technol Assess 2021; 24:1-252. [PMID: 33336645 DOI: 10.3310/hta24720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk is needed to plan management. OBJECTIVES To assess the performance of existing pre-eclampsia prediction models and to develop and validate models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data meta-analysis. We also estimated the prognostic value of individual markers. DESIGN This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies. SETTING Source data from secondary and tertiary care. PREDICTORS We identified predictors from systematic reviews, and prioritised for importance in an international survey. PRIMARY OUTCOMES Early-onset (delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation), late-onset (delivery at ≥ 34 weeks' gestation) and any-onset pre-eclampsia. ANALYSIS We externally validated existing prediction models in UK cohorts and reported their performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. We developed and validated 12 new models based on clinical characteristics, clinical characteristics and biochemical markers, and clinical characteristics and ultrasound markers in the first and second trimesters. We summarised the data set-specific performance of each model using a random-effects meta-analysis. Discrimination was considered promising for C-statistics of ≥ 0.7, and calibration was considered good if the slope was near 1 and calibration-in-the-large was near 0. Heterogeneity was quantified using I 2 and τ2. A decision curve analysis was undertaken to determine the clinical utility (net benefit) of the models. We reported the unadjusted prognostic value of individual predictors for pre-eclampsia as odds ratios with 95% confidence and prediction intervals. RESULTS The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network comprised 78 studies (3,570,993 singleton pregnancies) identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict pre-eclampsia. Twenty-four of the 131 published prediction models could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Summary C-statistics were between 0.6 and 0.7 for most models, and calibration was generally poor owing to large between-study heterogeneity, suggesting model overfitting. The clinical utility of the models varied between showing net harm to showing minimal or no net benefit. The average discrimination for IPPIC models ranged between 0.68 and 0.83. This was highest for the second-trimester clinical characteristics and biochemical markers model to predict early-onset pre-eclampsia, and lowest for the first-trimester clinical characteristics models to predict any pre-eclampsia. Calibration performance was heterogeneous across studies. Net benefit was observed for International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications first and second-trimester clinical characteristics and clinical characteristics and biochemical markers models predicting any pre-eclampsia, when validated in singleton nulliparous women managed in the UK NHS. History of hypertension, parity, smoking, mode of conception, placental growth factor and uterine artery pulsatility index had the strongest unadjusted associations with pre-eclampsia. LIMITATIONS Variations in study population characteristics, type of predictors reported, too few events in some validation cohorts and the type of measurements contributed to heterogeneity in performance of the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models. Some published models were not validated because model predictors were unavailable in the individual participant data. CONCLUSION For models that could be validated, predictive performance was generally poor across data sets. Although the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models show good predictive performance on average, and in the singleton nulliparous population, heterogeneity in calibration performance is likely across settings. FUTURE WORK Recalibration of model parameters within populations may improve calibration performance. Additional strong predictors need to be identified to improve model performance and consistency. Validation, including examination of calibration heterogeneity, is required for the models we could not validate. STUDY REGISTRATION This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015029349. FUNDING This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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Rumyantseva ZS, Sulima AN, Volotskaya NI, Anikin SS, Soiko OV, Seytumerova LI, Eskenderov AI, Sorokina LE. Contemporary Features Of Predicting The Development Of Luteal Insufficiency And Related Gestational Disorders. RUSSIAN OPEN MEDICAL JOURNAL 2021. [DOI: 10.15275/rusomj.2021.0320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The goal of our study was a comprehensive assessment of obstetric, gynecological, somatic and genetic factors, contributing to high risk of insufficient luteal phase (ILP) and relating gestational disorders to the latter in relevant patients for further optimization of therapeutic and preventive measures. Material and Methods — A cohort study with a mixed cohort was carried out. The clinical material of the retrospective study was presented based on the results of analyzing 300 cases of patients with verified diagnoses of the threat of spontaneous abortion, miscarriage, and complete spontaneous abortion, who were hospitalized in the period of 2018-2020. As part of a prospective study, we analyzed 66 blood samples of women treated at the State Budgetary Healthcare Institution Simferopol Clinical Maternity Hospital No.2 in Crimea in 2020. The polymerase chain reaction method in real time mode, with the use of the developed kits, was used for CYP3A5 6986A> G polymorphism. Results — A comprehensive assessment of obstetric, gynecological, somatic and genetic factors allowed identifying the most informative prognostic markers for the risk of developing luteal phase insufficiency and related gestational disorders, including irregular menstrual cycle, cases of drug-induced abortion, preceding specific infectious diseases (chlamydia, Ureaplasma urealyticum infection), gynecological pathology (polycystic ovary syndrome), surgical interventions performed for gynecological pathology (ovarian resection and ovariectomy), as well as single nucleotide polymorphism rs776746 in the CYP3A5 gene. Conclusion — The identified prognostic criteria make it possible to identify a group of patients with a high risk of miscarriage even before the conception; such patients need more careful and systematic medical monitoring for the timely diagnosis of possible pregnancy complications. Early diagnosing of potential issues would allow clinicians to take preventive measures, along with initiating timely treatment. As a result, the percentage of reproductive losses would go down.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Anna N. Sulima
- Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Simferopol, Russia
| | | | | | - Olga V. Soiko
- Vernadsky Crimean Federal University, Simferopol, Russia
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López-Jiménez N, García-Sánchez F, Hernández-Pailos R, Rodrigo-Álvaro V, Pascual-Pedreño A, Moreno-Cid M, Delgado-Rodríguez M, Hernández-Martínez A. Risk of caesarean delivery in labour induction: a systematic review and external validation of predictive models. BJOG 2021; 129:685-695. [PMID: 34559942 DOI: 10.1111/1471-0528.16947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the existence of numerous published models predicting the risk of caesarean delivery in women undergoing induction of labour (IOL), validated models are scarce. OBJECTIVES To systematically review and externally assess the predictive capacity of caesarean delivery risk models in women undergoing IOL. SEARCH STRATEGY Studies published up to 15 January 2021 were identified through PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus and ClinicalTrials.gov, without temporal or language restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA Studies describing the derivation of new models for predicting the risk of caesarean delivery in labour induction. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Three authors independently screened the articles and assessed the risk of bias (ROB) according to the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). External validation was performed in a prospective cohort of 468 pregnancies undergoing IOL from February 2019 to August 2020. The predictive capacity of the models was assessed by creating areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs), calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA). MAIN RESULTS Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria; 12 predictive models were validated. The quality of most of the included studies was not adequate. The AUC of the models varied from 0.520 to 0.773. The three models with the best discriminative capacity were those of Levine et al. (AUC 0.773, 95% CI 0.720-0.827), Hernández et al. (AUC 0.762, 95% CI 0.715-0.809) and Rossi et al. (AUC 0.752, 95% CI 0.707-0.797). CONCLUSIONS Predictive capacity and methodological quality were limited; therefore, we cannot currently recommend the use of any of the models for decision making in clinical practice. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT Predictive models that predict the risk of cesarean section in labor inductions are currently not applicable.
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Affiliation(s)
- N López-Jiménez
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, La Mancha Centro Hospital, Alcázar de San Juan, Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - F García-Sánchez
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, La Mancha Centro Hospital, Alcázar de San Juan, Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - R Hernández-Pailos
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, La Mancha Centro Hospital, Alcázar de San Juan, Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - V Rodrigo-Álvaro
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, La Mancha Centro Hospital, Alcázar de San Juan, Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - A Pascual-Pedreño
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, La Mancha Centro Hospital, Alcázar de San Juan, Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - M Moreno-Cid
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, La Mancha Centro Hospital, Alcázar de San Juan, Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - M Delgado-Rodríguez
- Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain.,Department of Health Sciences, University of Jaen, Jaen, Spain
| | - A Hernández-Martínez
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, La Mancha Centro Hospital, Alcázar de San Juan, Ciudad Real, Spain.,Department of Nursing, Faculty of Nursing of Ciudad Real, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain
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Stock SJ, Horne M, Bruijn M, White H, Heggie R, Wotherspoon L, Boyd K, Aucott L, Morris RK, Dorling J, Jackson L, Chandiramani M, David A, Khalil A, Shennan A, Baaren GJV, Hodgetts-Morton V, Lavender T, Schuit E, Harper-Clarke S, Mol B, Riley RD, Norman J, Norrie J. A prognostic model, including quantitative fetal fibronectin, to predict preterm labour: the QUIDS meta-analysis and prospective cohort study. Health Technol Assess 2021; 25:1-168. [PMID: 34498576 DOI: 10.3310/hta25520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The diagnosis of preterm labour is challenging. False-positive diagnoses are common and result in unnecessary, potentially harmful treatments (e.g. tocolytics, antenatal corticosteroids and magnesium sulphate) and costly hospital admissions. Measurement of fetal fibronectin in vaginal fluid is a biochemical test that can indicate impending preterm birth. OBJECTIVES To develop an externally validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors, for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth and to assess its cost-effectiveness. DESIGN The study comprised (1) a qualitative study to establish the decisional needs of pregnant women and their caregivers, (2) an individual participant data meta-analysis of existing studies to develop a prognostic model for spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in women with symptoms of preterm labour based on quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors, (3) external validation of the prognostic model in a prospective cohort study across 26 UK centres, (4) a model-based economic evaluation comparing the prognostic model with qualitative fetal fibronectin, and quantitative fetal fibronectin with cervical length measurement, in terms of cost per QALY gained and (5) a qualitative assessment of the acceptability of quantitative fetal fibronectin. DATA SOURCES/SETTING The model was developed using data from five European prospective cohort studies of quantitative fetal fibronectin. The UK prospective cohort study was carried out across 26 UK centres. PARTICIPANTS Pregnant women at 22+0-34+6 weeks' gestation with signs and symptoms of preterm labour. HEALTH TECHNOLOGY BEING ASSESSED Quantitative fetal fibronectin. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. RESULTS The individual participant data meta-analysis included 1783 women and 139 events of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days (event rate 7.8%). The prognostic model that was developed included quantitative fetal fibronectin, smoking, ethnicity, nulliparity and multiple pregnancy. The model was externally validated in a cohort of 2837 women, with 83 events of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days (event rate 2.93%), an area under the curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.93), a calibration slope of 1.22 and a Nagelkerke R 2 of 0.34. The economic analysis found that the prognostic model was cost-effective compared with using qualitative fetal fibronectin at a threshold for hospital admission and treatment of ≥ 2% risk of preterm birth within 7 days. LIMITATIONS The outcome proportion (spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test) was 2.9% in the validation study. This is in line with other studies, but having slightly fewer than 100 events is a limitation in model validation. CONCLUSIONS A prognostic model that included quantitative fetal fibronectin and clinical risk factors showed excellent performance in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days of test, was cost-effective and can be used to inform a decision support tool to help guide management decisions for women with threatened preterm labour. FUTURE WORK The prognostic model will be embedded in electronic maternity records and a mobile telephone application, enabling ongoing data collection for further refinement and validation of the model. STUDY REGISTRATION This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015027590 and Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41598423. FUNDING This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 52. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah J Stock
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Margaret Horne
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Merel Bruijn
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Helen White
- Division of Nursing, Midwifery and Social Work, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Robert Heggie
- Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Lisa Wotherspoon
- Medical Research Council Centre for Reproductive Health, Queen's Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Kathleen Boyd
- Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Lorna Aucott
- Health Services Research Unit, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Rachel K Morris
- Institute of Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Jon Dorling
- Department of Neonatology, IWK Health Centre, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Lesley Jackson
- Department of Neonatology, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Glasgow, UK
| | - Manju Chandiramani
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK
| | - Anna David
- Elizabeth Garrett Anderson Institute for Women's Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Asma Khalil
- Department of Fetal Medicine, St George's Hospital, St George's, University of London, London, UK
| | - Andrew Shennan
- Department of Women and Children's Health, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Gert-Jan van Baaren
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | | | - Tina Lavender
- Division of Nursing, Midwifery and Social Work, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Ewoud Schuit
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | | | - Ben Mol
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Richard D Riley
- Centre for Prognosis Research, Research Institute for Primary Care and Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Jane Norman
- Medical Research Council Centre for Reproductive Health, Queen's Medical Research Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - John Norrie
- Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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Permyakova AV, Porodikov A, Kuchumov AG, Biyanov A, Arutunyan V, Furman EG, Sinelnkov YS. Discriminant Analysis of Main Prognostic Factors Associated with Hemodynamically Significant PDA: Apgar Score, Silverman-Anderson Score, and NT-Pro-BNP Level. J Clin Med 2021; 10:3729. [PMID: 34442025 PMCID: PMC8397198 DOI: 10.3390/jcm10163729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2021] [Revised: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (hsPDA) in premature newborns is associated with a risk of PDA-related morbidities. Classification into risk groups may have a clinical utility in cases of suspected hsPDA to decrease the need for echocardiograms and unnecessary treatment. This prospective observational study included 99 premature newborns with extremely low body weight, who had an echocardiogram performed within the first three days of life. Discriminant analysis was utilized to find the best combination of prognostic factors for evaluation of hsPDA. We used binary logistic regression analysis to predict the relationship between parameters and hsPDA. The cohort's mean and standard deviation gestational age was 27.6 ± 2.55 weeks, the mean birth weight was 1015 ± 274 g. Forty-six (46.4%) infants had a PDA with a mean diameter of 2.78 mm. Median NT-pro-BNP levels were 17,600 pg/mL for infants with a PDA and 2773 pg/mL in the non-hsPDA group. The combination of prognostic factors of hsPDA in newborns of extremely low body weight on the third day of life was determined: NT-pro-BNP, Apgar score, Silverman-Anderson score (Se = 82%, Sp = 88%). A cut-off value of NT-pro-BNP of more than 8500 pg/mL can predict hsPDA (Se = 84%, Sp = 86%).
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna V. Permyakova
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Perm State Medical University, 614990 Perm, Russia;
| | - Artem Porodikov
- Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery, 614990 Perm, Russia; (A.P.); (A.B.); (V.A.); (Y.S.S.)
| | - Alex G. Kuchumov
- Department of Computational Mathematics, Mechanics, and Biomechanics, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, 614990 Perm, Russia
| | - Alexey Biyanov
- Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery, 614990 Perm, Russia; (A.P.); (A.B.); (V.A.); (Y.S.S.)
- Department of Pediatrics, Perm State Medical University, 614990 Perm, Russia
| | - Vagram Arutunyan
- Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery, 614990 Perm, Russia; (A.P.); (A.B.); (V.A.); (Y.S.S.)
| | - Evgeniy G. Furman
- Department of the Intermediate Level and Hospital Pediatrics, Perm State Medical University, 614990 Perm, Russia;
| | - Yuriy S. Sinelnkov
- Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery, 614990 Perm, Russia; (A.P.); (A.B.); (V.A.); (Y.S.S.)
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Akbas M, Koyuncu FM, Artunç-Ülkümen B, Akbas G. The relation between second-trimester placental elasticity and poor obstetric outcomes in low-risk pregnancies. J Perinat Med 2021; 49:468-473. [PMID: 33554573 DOI: 10.1515/jpm-2020-0464] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2020] [Accepted: 11/17/2020] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Increased placental stiffness is associated with various pathological conditions. Our objective was to evaluate the relation between the second-trimester placental elasticity value in low-risk pregnant women and poor obstetric outcomes. METHODS A total of 143 pregnant women were enrolled. Placental elasticity values were measured using the transabdominal point shear wave elastography method. 10 random measurements were obtained from different areas of the placenta. The mean was accepted as the mean placental elasticity value. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent variables associated with obstetric outcomes. RESULTS Second-trimester placental elasticity value was significantly and positively associated with the poor obstetric outcomes (p=0.038). We could predict a poor outcome with 69.2% sensitivity and 60.7% specificity if we defined the placental elasticity cut-off as 3.19 kPa. Furthermore, in the multiple regression model, the placental elasticity value added significantly to the prediction of birth weight (p=0.043). CONCLUSIONS Our results showed that the pregnancies with a stiffer placenta in the second trimester were associated with an increased likelihood of exhibiting poor obstetric outcomes. Also, placental elasticity was independently associated with birth weight.
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Affiliation(s)
- Murat Akbas
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Perinatology Division, Manisa Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
| | - Faik Mumtaz Koyuncu
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Perinatology Division, Manisa Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
| | - Burcu Artunç-Ülkümen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Perinatology Division, Manisa Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
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Predictive models of individual risk of elective caesarean section complications: a systematic review. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol 2021; 262:248-255. [PMID: 34090730 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejogrb.2021.05.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION With increasing caesarean section (c-section) rates, personalized communication of risk has become paramount. A reliable tool to predict complications would support evidence-based discussions around planned mode of birth. This systematic review aimed to identify, synthesize and quality appraise prognostic models of maternal complications of elective c-section. METHODS MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library were searched on 27 January using terms relating to 'c-section', 'prognostic models' and complications such as 'infection'. Any study developing and/or validating a prognostic model for a maternal complication of elective c-section in the English language after January 1995 was selected for analysis. Data were extracted using a predetermined checklist: source of data; participants; outcome to be predicted; candidate predictors; sample size; missing data; model development; model performance; model evaluation; results; and interpretation. Quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) tool. RESULTS In total, 7752 studies were identified; of these, 16 full papers were reviewed and three eligible studies were identified, containing three prognostic models derived from hospitals in Japan, South Africa and the UK. The models predicted risk of blood transfusion, spinal hypotension and postpartum haemorrhage. The study authors deemed their studies to be exploratory, exploratory and confirmatory, respectively. From the three studies, a total of 29 unique candidate predictors were identified, with 15 predictors in the final models. Maternal age (n = 3), previous c-section (n = 2), placenta praevia (n = 2) and pre-operative haemoglobin (n = 2) were found to be common predictors amongst the included studies. None of the studies were externally validated and all had a high risk of bias due to the analysis technique used. CONCLUSION Few models have been developed to predict complications of elective c-section. Existing models predicting blood transfusion, spinal hypotension and postpartum haemorrhage cannot be recommended for clinical practice. Future research should focus on identifying predictors known before surgery and validating the resulting models.
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50
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van Beek PE, Andriessen P, Onland W, Schuit E. Prognostic Models Predicting Mortality in Preterm Infants: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Pediatrics 2021; 147:peds.2020-020461. [PMID: 33879518 DOI: 10.1542/peds.2020-020461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/27/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
CONTEXT Prediction models can be a valuable tool in performing risk assessment of mortality in preterm infants. OBJECTIVE Summarizing prognostic models for predicting mortality in very preterm infants and assessing their quality. DATA SOURCES Medline was searched for all articles (up to June 2020). STUDY SELECTION All developed or externally validated prognostic models for mortality prediction in liveborn infants born <32 weeks' gestation and/or <1500 g birth weight were included. DATA EXTRACTION Data were extracted by 2 independent authors. Risk of bias (ROB) and applicability assessment was performed by 2 independent authors using Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. RESULTS One hundred forty-two models from 35 studies reporting on model development and 112 models from 33 studies reporting on external validation were included. ROB assessment revealed high ROB in the majority of the models, most often because of inadequate (reporting of) analysis. Internal and external validation was lacking in 41% and 96% of these models. Meta-analyses revealed an average C-statistic of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.91) for the Clinical Risk Index for Babies score, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.92) for the Clinical Risk Index for Babies II score, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78-0.92) for the Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension II score. LIMITATIONS Occasionally, an external validation study was included, but not the development study, because studies developed in the presurfactant era or general NICU population were excluded. CONCLUSIONS Instead of developing additional mortality prediction models for preterm infants, the emphasis should be shifted toward external validation and consecutive adaption of the existing prediction models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pauline E van Beek
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Centre, Veldhoven, Netherlands;
| | - Peter Andriessen
- Department of Neonatology, Máxima Medical Centre, Veldhoven, Netherlands.,Department of Applied Physics, School of Medical Physics and Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands
| | - Wes Onland
- Department of Neonatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers and University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Ewoud Schuit
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht and Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; and.,Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht and Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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