Cost-effectiveness of liver cancer screening

LI-RADS US Surveillance Version 2024 for Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Update to the American College of Radiology US LI-RADS

In 2017, the American College of Radiology introduced the US Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) as a framework for US surveillance of patients at risk for developing hepatocellular carcinoma. This has aided in the standardization of technique, clinical reporting, patient management, data collection, and research. Emerging evidence has helped inform changes to the algorithm, now released as LI-RADS US Surveillance version 2024. The updated algorithm, the rationale for changes, and its alignment with the 2023 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases Practice Guidance are presented.

Optimising Surveillance in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Patient-Defined Obstacles and Solutions

Background and Aims

Six-monthly ultrasound surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended in patients with cirrhosis. Surveillance enhances early detection and improves survival. Yet, despite clear benefits, uptake remains low. We aim to identify and explore ways to overcome patient-related barriers to HCC surveillance with the aim of producing invitations for surveillance.

Methods

Using the COM-B model of behaviour and a co-design process, we collaborated with patients, liver health charities and advocacy groups, to identify patient-related barriers to attending HCC surveillance. We performed qualitative thematic analysis of co-production workshops on HCC surveillance to develop information leaflets and surveillance invitations.

Results

Twenty-eight participants attended five workshops. Fear of a serious diagnosis and stigma from healthcare professionals were highlighted as main patient-related barriers to attending surveillance appointments. Co-design was used to develop informative, user-friendly, non-judgemental invitations and information regarding HCC surveillance relevant to populations with cirrhosis.

Conclusion

We identified potential patient barriers to surveillance uptake and developed patient facing material that directly addressed these barriers to be trialled in the clinic. Targeting patient-specific barriers may increase uptake of surveillance and therefore enhance early diagnosis.

The clinical and financial burden of nonhepatocellular carcinoma focal lesions detected during the surveillance of patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HCC surveillance is challenged by the detection of hepatic focal lesions (HFLs) of other types. This study aimed to describe the incidence, characteristics, outcomes, and costs of non-HCC HFL detected during surveillance.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We retrospectively analyzed nonstandardized workup performed in French patients included in HCC surveillance programs recruited in 57 French tertiary centers (ANRS CirVir and CIRRAL cohorts, HCC 2000 trial). The overall cost of workup was evaluated, with an estimation of an average cost per patient for the entire population and per lesion detected. A total of 3295 patients were followed up for 59.8 months, 391 (11.9%) patients developed HCCs (5-year incidence: 12.1%), and 633 (19.2%) developed non-HCC HFLs (5-year incidence: 21.8%). Characterization of non-HCC HFL required a median additional of 0.7 exams per year. A total of 11.8% of non-HCC HFLs were not confirmed on recall procedures, and 19.6% of non-HCC HFLs remained undetermined. A definite diagnosis of benign liver lesions was made in 65.1%, and malignant tumors were diagnosed in 3.5%. The survival of patients with benign or undetermined non-HCC HFL was similar to that of patients who never developed any HFL (5-year survival 92% vs. 88%, p = 0.07). The average cost of the diagnostic workup was 1087€ for non-HCC HFL and €1572 for HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-HCC HFLs are frequently detected in patients with cirrhosis, and do not impact prognosis, but trigger substantial costs. This burden must be considered in cost-effectiveness analyses of future personalized surveillance strategies.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Screening of liver cancer with abbreviated MRI

Current recommendations for the surveillance of HCC are based on the semiannual liver ultrasound (with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein) in patients with cirrhosis and in subgroups with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, the sensitivity of this strategy is suboptimal for the detection of early-stage tumors, especially in obese patients, due to interoperator variability and poor adherence. The detection rate of focal liver lesions is excellent with MRI, making it the best alternative candidate for surveillance. However, performing a full contrast-enhanced MRI is unrealistic because of limited availability and health economics. Abbreviated MRI (AMRI) corresponds to the acquisition of a limited number of sequences with a high detection rate. The theoretical benefits of AMRI are a reduced acquisition time (≤10 min) with improved time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness compared with conventional MRI, and greater accuracy than ultrasound. Numerous protocols may be performed, including T1-weighted, T2-weighted, and DWI sequences, with or without contrast administration. Although published studies report promising per-patient results, they should be interpreted with caution. Indeed, most studies were simulated, retrospectively reviewing a subset of sequences in relatively small populations who underwent a full MRI. They also included groups that were not representative of screening populations. In addition, most were published by Asian groups, with at-risk populations that were different from Western populations. There are no existing longitudinal studies that directly compare the different AMRI approaches or AMRI to ultrasound. Finally, it is possible that 1 approach will not fit all patients and that strategies should be tailored to the risk of HCC, in particular in relation to the cost and availability of AMRI. Several trials are ongoing to evaluate these questions.

Who Should Not Be Surveilled for HCC Development after Successful Therapy with DAAS in Advanced Chronic Hepatitis C? Results of a Long-Term Prospective Study

Background and aims: The identification of patients with Hepatitis C Virus (HCV)-positive advanced chronic liver disease (aCLD) successfully treated by Direct Acting Antiviral Agents (DAAs) who really benefit from Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) surveillance programs is still a matter of debate. We performed a long-term prospective cohort study on F3-F4 HCV-positive patients achieving Sustained Virologic Response (SVR) after DAAs treatment in order to identify patients who can safely suspend surveillance. Methods: 1000 patients with HCV-positive aCLD obtaining SVR by DAAs from January 2015 to December 2017 were divided into four groups according to baseline elastographic, ultrasonographic, clinical and biochemical features: (1) Group 1: 324 patients with Liver Stiffness Measurement (LSM) ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 (2) Group 2: 133 patients with LSM ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 and/or APRI ≥ 1.5 (3) Group 3: 158 patients with LSM > 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 (4) Group 4: 385 patients with LSM > 14.5 kPa, FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 and/or APRI ≥ 1.5. FIB-4 and APRI scores were calculated at baseline and at SVR achievement. Each patient was surveiled twice-yearly by ultrasound for a median follow-up of 48 months. Results: among Group 1 patients, 1/324 (0.3%) developed HCC (0.09/100 patients/year [PY]), compared to 6/133 (4.5%) Group 2 patients (1.22/100 PY, p = 0.0009), 10/158 (6.3%) Group 3 patients (1.68/100 PY, p = 0.0001), 54/385 (14.0%) Group 4 patients (4.01/100 PY, p < 0.0001). HCC incidence was significantly lower in Group 2 compared to Group 3 (p = 0.004) and in Group 3 compared to Group 4 (p = 0.009). HCC risk fell in patients showing a decrease of FIB-4/APRI scores. Conclusions: the risk of HCC occurrence is negligible in about 90% of HCV-positive patients with baseline LSM ≥ 9.5 ≤ 14.5 kPa plus FIB-4 < 3.25 and APRI < 1.5 achieving SVR. Among this particular subset of patients, FIB-4/APRI scores may represent an accurate and inexpensive tool to distinguish patients not needing long-term HCC surveillance.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in hepatitis C stage-3 fibrosis after sustained virological response with direct-acting antivirals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with chronic hepatitis C and stage 3 fibrosis are thought to remain at risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after sustained virological response. We investigated this risk in a large cohort of patients with well-defined stage 3 fibrosis.

METHODS

We performed a multicentre, ambispective, observational study of chronic hepatitis C patients with sustained virological response after treatment with direct-acting antivirals started between January and December 2015. Baseline stage 3 was defined in a two-step procedure: we selected patients with transient elastography values of 9.5-14.5 kPa and subsequently excluded those with nodular liver surface, splenomegaly, ascites or collaterals on imaging, thrombopenia or esophago-gastric varices. Patients were screened twice-yearly using ultrasound.

RESULTS

The final sample comprised 506 patients (median age, 57.4 years; males, 59.9%; diabetes, 17.2%; overweight, 44.1%; genotype 3, 8.9%; HIV coinfection, 18.4%; altered liver values, 15.2%). Median follow-up was 33.7 (22.1-39.1) months. Five hepatocellular carcinomas and 1 cholangiocarcinoma were detected after a median of 29.4 months (95% CI: 26.8-39.3), with an incidence of 0.47/100 patients/year (95% CI: 0.17-1.01). In the multivariate analysis, only males older than 55 years had a significant higher risk (hazard ratio 7.2 [95% CI: 1.2-41.7; P = .029]) with an incidence of 1.1/100 patients/year (95% CI: 0.3-2.8).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large, well-defined cohort of patients with baseline hepatitis C stage-3 fibrosis, the incidence of primary liver tumours was low after sustained virological response and far from the threshold for cost-effectiveness of screening, except in males older than 55 years.

Cancer Risk in Patients With Biopsy-Confirmed Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recent studies link NAFLD to an increased incidence of HCC and extrahepatic cancers. However, earlier studies were small or lacked liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging NAFLD severity.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of all adults with histologically defined NAFLD in Sweden from 1966 to 2016 (N = 8,892). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded liver histopathology submitted to all 28 Swedish pathology departments and categorized as simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis. NAFLD patients were individually matched to ≤5 general population controls without NAFLD by age, sex, calendar year, and county (N = 39,907). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs. Over a median of 13.8 years, we documented 1,691 incident cancers among NAFLD patients and 6,733 among controls. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall cancer incidence (10.9 vs. 13.8 per 1,000 person-years [PYs]; difference = 2.9 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.18-1.36]), driven primarily by HCC (difference = 1.1 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 17.08 [95% CI, 11.56-25.25]). HCC incidence rates increased monotonically across categories of simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis (0.8 per 1,000 PYs, 1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.3 per 1,000 PYs, and 6.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively; P_trend  < 0.01) and were further amplified by diabetes (1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.9 per 1,000 PYs, 7.2 per 1,000 PYs, and 15.7 per 1,000 PYs, respectively). In contrast, NAFLD was associated with modestly increased rates of pancreatic cancer, kidney/bladder cancer, and melanoma (differences = 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, 0.1 per 1,000 PYs, and 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively), but no other cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with controls, patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly increased cancer incidence, attributable primarily to HCC, whereas the contribution of extrahepatic cancers was modest. Although HCC risk was highest with cirrhosis, substantial excess risk was also found with noncirrhotic fibrosis and comorbid diabetes.

Current Trends and Characteristics of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Autoimmune Liver Diseases

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the commonest among liver cancers, is one of the leading causes of mortality among malignancies worldwide. Several reports demonstrate autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs), including autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) to confer increased risk of hepatobiliary malignancies, albeit at lower frequencies compared to other liver diseases. Several parameters have been recognized as risk factors for HCC development in AIH and PBC, including demographics such as older age and male sex, clinical features, the most decisive being cirrhosis and other co-existing factors, such as alcohol consumption. Moreover, biochemical activity and treatment response have been increasingly recognized as prognostic factors for HCC development in AIH and PBC. As available treatment modalities are effective only when HCC diagnosis is established early, surveillance has been proven essential for HCC prognosis. Considering that the risk for HCC is not uniform between and within disease groups, refinement of screening strategies according to prevailing demographic, clinical, and molecular risk factors is mandated in AILDs patients, as personalized HCC risk prediction will offer significant advantage in patients at high and/or medium risk. Furthermore, future investigations should draw attention to whether modification of immunosuppression could benefit AIH patients after HCC diagnosis.

Abbreviated MRI for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening and Surveillance

To detect potentially curable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), clinical practice guidelines recommend semiannual surveillance US of the liver in adult patients at risk for developing this malignancy, such as those with cirrhosis and some patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. However, cirrhosis and a large body habitus, both of which are increasingly prevalent in the United States and the rest of the world, may impair US visualization of liver lesions and reduce the sensitivity of surveillance with this modality. The low sensitivity of US for detection of early-stage HCC contributes to delayed diagnosis and increased mortality. Abbreviated MRI, a shortened MRI protocol tailored for early-stage detection of HCC, has been proposed as an alternative surveillance option that provides high sensitivity and specificity. Abbreviated MRI protocols include fewer sequences than a complete multiphase MRI examination and are specifically designed to identify small potentially curable HCCs that may be missed at US. Three abbreviated MRI strategies have been studied: (a) nonenhanced, (b) dynamic contrast material-enhanced, and (c) hepatobiliary phase contrast-enhanced abbreviated MRI. Retrospective studies have shown that simulated abbreviated MRI provides high sensitivity and specificity for early-stage HCC, mostly in nonsurveillance cohorts. If it is supported by scientific evidence in surveillance populations, adoption of abbreviated MRI could advance clinical practice by increasing early detection of HCC, allowing effective treatment and potentially prolonging life in the growing number of individuals with this cancer. Online supplemental material is available for this article. ©RSNA, 2020.

Natural History of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Implications for Clinical Practice and an Individualized Approach

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming the most prevalent liver disease worldwide, associated with epidemics of overweight and resulting metabolic syndrome (MetS). Around 20-30% of patients with NAFLD develop progressive liver fibrosis, which is the most important predictor of liver-related and overall morbidity and mortality. In contrast to classical understanding, no significant association has been demonstrated between the inflammatory component of NAFLD, i.e., nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and the adverse clinical outcomes. Older age (>50 years) and presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, in addition to some genetic variants, are most consistently reported indicators of increased risk of having liver fibrosis. However, critical driving force for the progression of fibrosis and risk factors for this have still not been fully elucidated. Apart from the genetic profile, gut dysbiosis, weight gain, worsening of insulin resistance, and worsening of liver steatosis represent candidate factors associated with unfavourable development of liver disease. Cardiovascular events, extrahepatic malignancies, and liver-related deaths are the leading causes of mortality in NAFLD. As patients with advanced fibrosis are under highest risk of adverse clinical outcomes, efforts should be made to recognize individuals under risk and rule out the presence of this stage of fibrosis, preferably by using simple noninvasive tools. This process should start at the primary care level by using validated biochemical tests, followed by direct serum tests for fibrosis or elastography in the remaining patients. Patients with advanced fibrosis should be referred to hepatologists for aggressive lifestyle modification and correction of the components of MetS, and cirrhotic patients should be screened for hepatocellular carcinoma and oesophageal varices.

Economic Implications of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance and Treatment: A Guide for Clinicians

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing worldwide, with significant morbidity and associated costs. Treatment allocation depends on the stage of diagnosis; however, resource utilization can be significant across all stages. We aimed to summarize the available data on the cost effectiveness of surveillance of and treatments for HCC in the context of current treatment guidelines. We performed a focused review of studies investigating the economic burden and cost effectiveness of HCC surveillance treatment modalities published between January 2000 and January 2019. The overall economic burden of HCC is increasing in the USA and in several countries worldwide due to its rising incidence and the proliferation of therapies. Liver transplantation is a cost-effective strategy for early-stage HCC treatment in selected patients. In settings where liver transplantation is not available or in patients awaiting transplant, ablative or locoregional therapies are cost effective with increases in quality-adjusted life-years. First-line therapy with sorafenib for advanced stage HCC is cost effective in the treatment of compensated cirrhosis. The cost effectiveness of recently approved systemic therapies for advanced HCC require further investigation. Existing studies have shown that guideline-recommended surveillance techniques and several available therapies for the treatment of HCC are cost effective; however, there are limitations in the literature, including reliance on suboptimal modeling with incomplete/simplified model structure or inadequate inputs. With increasing therapeutic options in patients with HCC, understanding their relative value is critical in designing HCC treatment algorithms.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Non Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global epidemic involving 20-40% of the general population. NAFLD is rapidly becoming the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Knowledge about NAFLD-HCC peculiar features is needed to understand this emerging disease better.

OBJECTIVE

To review the current literature about the epidemiological, pathogenic and clinical features characterising the NAFLD and distinguishing it from HCC of other etiologies.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature (PubMed and Medline) using the following string ("Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease"[Mesh] and "Carcinoma, Hepatocellular"[Mesh]). Particular relevance was given to papers published in the last five years as well as previously published manuscript very relevant to this topic according to the experience of the authors.

RESULTS

A total of 244 original papers in humans in English literature were analysed. Inherent difficulties in the identification of high-risk subjects and the possibility of occurrence in non-cirrhotic livers are peculiar characteristics of NAFLD-HCC hampering surveillance programs. The consequently delayed diagnosis limits access to surgical procedures and impacts on survival. After correction for tumour burden, however, the survival is not different from that of viral HCC, suggesting that NAFLD-HCC is not intrinsically a more aggressive malignancy.

CONCLUSION

A great deal of effort is needed to improve the clinical outcome of NAFLD-HCC, especially in terms of prevention, surveillance protocols, and identification of drug modifying the natural history of the underlying liver disease. The outcome of these efforts will significantly impact global HCC-related costs and mortality.

Surveillance and diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) appears in most of cases in patients with advanced liver disease and is currently the primary cause of death in this population. Surveillance of HCC has been proposed and recommended in clinical guidelines to obtain earlier diagnosis, but it is still controversial and is not accepted worldwide.

AIM

To review the actual evidence to support the surveillance programs in patients with cirrhosis as well as the diagnosis procedure.

METHODS

Systematic review of recent literature of surveillance (tools, interval, cost-benefit, target population) and the role of imaging diagnosis (radiological non-invasive diagnosis, optimal modality and agents) of HCC.

RESULTS

The benefits of surveillance of HCC, mainly with ultrasonography, have been assessed in several prospective and retrospective analysis, although the percentage of patients diagnosed in surveillance programs is still low. Surveillance of HCC permits diagnosis in early stages allows better access to curative treatment and increases life expectancy in patients with cirrhosis. HCC is a tumor with special radiological characteristics in computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, which allows highly accurate diagnosis without routine biopsy confirmation. The actual recommendation is to perform biopsy only in indeterminate nodules.

CONCLUSION

The evidence supports the recommendation of performing surveillance of HCC in patients with cirrhosis susceptible of treatment, using ultrasonography every 6 mo. The diagnosis evaluation of HCC can be established based on noninvasive imaging criteria in patients with cirrhosis.

Risk of Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There are limited data on the risk of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to estimate the risk of incident HCC among patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study from a total of 130 facilities in the Veterans Health Administration. Patients with NAFLD diagnosed between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2008 were included and followed until HCC diagnosis, death, or December 31, 2015. We also identified a sex- and age-matched control cohort without NAFLD. We ascertained all new HCC cases from the Central Cancer Registry and manual chart reviews. We calculated incidence rates for HCC by NAFLD status, as well as in subgroups of NAFLD patients. We used competing risk models to compare the risk of HCC in patients with NAFLD vs those without NAFLD. We reviewed electronic medical records of all HCC cases that developed in NAFLD patients without cirrhosis.

RESULTS

We compared 296,707 NAFLD patients with 296,707 matched controls. During 2,382,289 person-years [PYs] of follow-up, 490 NAFLD patients developed HCC (0.21/1000 PYs). HCC incidence was significantly higher among NAFLD patients vs controls (0.02/1000 PYs; hazard ratio, 7.62; 95% confidence interval, 5.76-10.09). Among patients with NAFLD, those with cirrhosis had the highest annual incidence of HCC (10.6/1000 PYs). Among patients with NAFLD cirrhosis, HCC risk ranged from 1.6 to 23.7 per 1000 PYs based on other demographic characteristics; risk of HCC was the highest in older Hispanics with cirrhosis. In medical record reviews, 20% of NAFLD patients with HCC had no evidence of cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of HCC was higher in NAFLD patients than that observed in general clinical population. Most HCC cases in NAFLD developed in patients with cirrhosis. The absolute risk of HCC was higher than the accepted thresholds for HCC surveillance for most patients with NAFLD cirrhosis.

Differential Effect of HCV Eradication and Fibrosis Grade on Hepatocellular Carcinoma and All-cause Mortality

Whether a sustained virological response (SVR) improves long-term outcomes in chronic hepatitis C patients with earlier-stage fibrosis has not been established. We investigated the differential effect of SVR on the risk of outcomes according to hepatic fibrosis grade. Fibrosis grade was categorised using FIB-4: <1.45, low-probability of significant fibrosis; 1.45-3.25, intermediate-probability; and ≥3.25, high-probability. Primary and secondary endpoints were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and death, respectively. Among 1,373 included chronic hepatitis C patients, 744 patients were treated with interferon-based or -free regimens and 622 (83.6%) achieved SVR. SVR was independently associated with lower risk of HCC (vs. untreated: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.165; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.077-0.350; P < 0.001) and overall death (vs. untreated; aHR, 0.146; 95% CI, 0.050-0.424; P < 0.001) during the median observation of 3.5 (interquartile range, 1.9-6.6) years. The SVR group had significantly lower risk of HCC than the untreated group among patients with intermediate-probability (n = 492: aHR, 0.171; 95% CI, 0.051-0.578; P = 0.004) and high-probability (n = 446: aHR, 0.243; 95% CI, 0.107-0.551; P < 0.001) of significant fibrosis. HRs were maintained after balancing with inverse probability weighting. SVR was associated with reduced risk of HCC development and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Surveillance for hepatocellular cancer

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common complication of cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC is rising and HCC-related mortality is rising in parallel such that there were more than 1,700 deaths in the UK in 2015. Since cirrhosis is a known risk factor for the development of HCC and early diagnosis is associated with improved outcomes, surveillance for the development of HCC using regular ultrasound scans is recommended by many expert bodies including the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). This surveillance is not supported by high-quality evidence and there is an increasing appreciation of the associated harms. In this review the likely benefits of surveillance are discussed together with recommendations to increase the effectiveness of surveillance overall.

Cost-effective options for the prevention and management of gastrointestinal and liver disease in the Asia-Pacific region

The Asia-Pacific region contains more than half of the world's population and is markedly heterogeneous in relation to income levels and the provision of public and private health services. For low-income countries, the major health priorities are child and maternal health. In contrast, priorities for high-income countries include vascular disease, cancer, diabetes, dementia, and mental health disorders as well as chronic inflammatory disorders such as hepatitis B and hepatitis C. Cost-effectiveness analyses are methods for assessing the gains in health relative to the costs of different health interventions. Methods for measuring health outcomes include years of life saved (or lost), quality-adjusted life years, and disability-adjusted life years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio measures the cost (usually in US dollars) per life year saved, quality-adjusted life year gained, or disability-adjusted life year averted of one intervention relative to another. In low-income countries, approximately 50% of infant deaths (< 5 years) are caused by gastroenteritis, the major pathogen being rotavirus infection. Rotavirus vaccines appear to be cost-effective but, thus far, have not been widely adopted. In contrast, infant vaccination for hepatitis B is promoted in most countries with a striking reduction in the prevalence of infection in vaccinated individuals. Cost-effectiveness analyses have also been applied to newer and more expensive drugs for hepatitis B and C and to government-sponsored programs for the early detection of hepatocellular, gastric, and colorectal cancer. Most of these studies reveal that newer drugs and surveillance programs for cancer are only marginally cost-effective in the setting of a high-income country.

Modeling the benefits and harms of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: Information to support informed choices

Surveillance by ultrasonography for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for individuals with cirrhosis is recommended. There is debate regarding the effectiveness of surveillance in reducing mortality, and there is little information on the harms available to patients considering surveillance. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of both the benefit and harms of surveillance. A Markov model was built to simulate outcomes of individuals aged 50 years with well-compensated cirrhosis entering surveillance. Following identification of a focal lesion by ultrasound surveillance, further investigations were defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer recall policy. Benefit and harm outcomes are expressed per 1,000 patients over 5 years. For every 1,000 patients in surveillance over 5 years, there are 13 fewer deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 12-14) compared with no surveillance, equating to a number needed to screen to prevent one death from HCC of 77. In comparison, many more individuals experienced harm through surveillance. For every 1,000 patients, 150 (95% CI, 146-154) had one or more false-positive tests equating to a number needed to harm from surveillance of 7. As a consequence of a false-positive test, 65 individuals required at least one additional unnecessary computed tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging and 39 required an unnecessary liver biopsy according to the recall policy. Surveillance benefits were sensitive to the incidence of HCC and the mortality benefit achieved by treatment. Harms were sensitive to the rates of false-positive testing and the frequency of liver biopsy.

CONCLUSION

There is a balance between the small absolute mortality benefit to surveillance for HCC and the numerically more frequent harms resulting from false-positive testing. Implementation of the recently revised American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommendations is predicted to reduce harms from unnecessary liver biopsy. (Hepatology 2017;66:1546-1555).

Risk of Hepatocellular Cancer in HCV Patients Treated With Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The risk of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) after sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) is unclear. Our aim was to examine the risk and determinants of HCC in patients cured with DAA.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of hepatitis C virus patients who were treated with DAA in any of the 129 Veterans Health Administration hospitals between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2015. We calculated the annual incidence rates of HCC by SVR. We used Cox regression models to compare the risk of HCC in patients with vs those without SVR and to identify factors associated with incident HCC among patients with SVR. We reviewed a sample of HCC patients for tumor size and stage at diagnosis.

RESULTS

Among 22,500 patients treated with DAA (19,518 with SVR; 2982 without SVR), the mean (standard deviation) age was 61.6 (6.1) years, and 39.0% had cirrhosis. There were 271 new cases of HCC, including 183 in patients with SVR. Compared with patients without SVR, those with SVR had a significantly reduced risk of HCC (0.90 vs 3.45 HCC/100 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.28, 95% CI=0.22-0.36). Patients with cirrhosis had the highest annual incidence of HCC after SVR (1.82 vs 0.34/100 person-years in patients without cirrhosis; adjusted hazard ratio, 4.73. 95% CI, 3.34-6.68). Most (>44.8%) HCC were classified as stage I. Maximum size of the largest lesion was ≤5 cm in over 75% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients treated with DAA, SVR was associated with a considerable reduction in the risk of HCC. We did not find any evidence to suggest that DAAs promote HCC. However, in patients with SVR, the absolute risk of HCC remained high in patients with established cirrhosis. These patients should be considered for ongoing HCC surveillance.

Early detection and curative treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: A cost-effectiveness analysis in France and in the United States

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Patients outside clinical trials seldom benefit from evidence-based monitoring. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of complying with HCC screening guidelines. The economic evaluation compared surveillance of patients with cirrhosis as recommended by the guidelines ("gold-standard monitoring") to "real-life monitoring" from the health care system perspective. A Markov model described the history of the disease and treatment course including current first-line curative treatment: liver resection, radiofrequency ablation (RFA), and liver transplantation. Transition probabilities were derived mainly from two French cohorts, CIRVIR and CHANGH. Costs were computed using French and U.S. tariffs. Effectiveness was measured in life years gained (LYG). An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for a 10-year horizon and tested with one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The cost difference between the two groups was $648 ($87,476 in the gold-standard monitoring group vs. $86,829 in the real-life monitoring group) in France and $11,965 ($93,795 vs. $81,829) in the United States. Survival increased by 0.37 years (7.18 vs. 6.81 years). The ICER was $1,754 per LYG in France and $32,415 per LYG in the United States. The health gain resulted from earlier diagnosis and access to first-line curative treatments, among which RFA provided the best value for money.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that gold-standard monitoring for patients with cirrhosis is cost-effective, attributed to a higher probability of benefiting from a curative treatment and so a higher survival probability. (Hepatology 2017;65:1237-1248).

Meta-analysis of CYP2E1 polymorphisms in liver carcinogenesis

BACKGROUND

The CYP2E1 protein is a monooxygenase with certain polymorphisms linked to liver cancer. However, results from individual studies remain controversial.

AIMS

To evaluate CYP2E1 polymorphisms in liver carcinogenesis through meta-analysis.

METHODS

All studies about CYP2E1 polymorphisms and liver cancer were retrieved from seven major databases. Original data from each study were pooled and re-analyzed.

RESULTS

Total of 16 articles with 4862 cases were selected, including 1820 cases of liver cancer and 3042 cases of controls. The c1 allelic frequency in the cases and controls was 83.3% and 85.3%, respectively. Five genetic variations were compared: dominant c1c2/c2c2 vs. c1/c1 (OR=0.987 (0.853, 1.141)), homozygous c2c2 vs. c1c1 (OR=0.767 (0.526, 1.119)), heterozygous c1c2 vs. c1c1 (OR=1.005 (0.854, 1.182)), recessive c2c2 vs. c1c2/c2c2 (OR=0.771 (0.530, 1.122)), and different alleles c2 vs. c1 (OR=0.947 (0.828, 1.082)). Pooled data were further analyzed based on ethnicity, control sources, and HWE (Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium). These results from stratified groups were similar to that of nonstratified groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis results suggest that there is no evidence for a major role of CYP2E1 polymorphism in liver carcinogenesis, but do not rule out the possibility in certain cases.

Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Diagnostic Algorithms in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most deadly complication of all major chronic liver diseases. Since early detection is the most significant determinant of overall survival, intense screening is of major importance.

METHODS

This overview is based on a systematic review of the available literature on HCC screening and surveillance in the PubMed database.

RESULTS

Over the last decades, major etiological risk factors were identified and the population at highest risk for the development of HCC was clearly defined. Screening in these patients has been repeatedly demonstrated to detect early tumor stages and to be cost-effective. Therefore, screening is recommended by all current guidelines and usually comprises a bi-annual ultrasound examination in Western countries. In some Asian countries biomarkers are also used; however, their efficiency for Western HCCs remains to be determined. The detection of lesions >1 cm during routine screening requires subsequent confirmation of HCC. The diagnosis can be accurately established by modern imaging techniques, i.e. computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, in the majority of patients. In ambiguous cases and if radiological criteria are not met by two imaging techniques, biopsies remain the gold standard for diagnosis. Furthermore, histology is of key importance for the development of new diagnostic and predictive biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Screening and detection algorithms for patients at risk for HCC are effective and should be rigorously implemented in clinical routine.

Early diagnosis of liver cancer: an appraisal of international recommendations and future perspectives

All Societies, AASLD, EASL, APASL and JSH, identify patients with cirrhosis as a target population for surveillance, with minor differences for additional categories of patients, such as chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis. According to AASLD, liver disease related to metabolic diseases including diabetes and obesity is a recognized target of screening, since those conditions have been causally related to HCC. All societies endorse radiological non-invasive techniques as the mainstay for early diagnosis of HCC, but discrepancies exist between Societies on the utilization of contrast-enhanced ultrasound and utilization of serum markers for surveillance and diagnosis of HCC. The diagnostic algorithm of the international societies differ substantially in the anatomic paradigm of EASL and APASL which identify 1 cm size as the starting point for radiological diagnosis of HCC compared to APASL algorithm based on the dynamic pattern of contrast imaging, independently on tumour size. While strengthening prediction in individual patients is expected to improve cost-effectiveness ratios of screening, the benefits of pre-treatment patient stratification by clinical, histological and genetic scores remain uncertain and exclusion of patients with severe co-morbidities and advanced age is still debated.

The Effect of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in an Urban Population With Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with cirrhosis is aimed at early detection so that effective therapeutic options may be offered. We undertook this study to assess the patterns of surveillance that had been offered to HCC patients evaluated at our center, and the effect of these strategies on outcome.

METHODS

Consecutive patients, age 18 years and older, diagnosed with HCC between December 2007 and December 2012 were identified. Surveillance was defined as α-fetoprotein measurement and/or imaging examination in the 12 months before HCC diagnosis. Logistic regression and survival analysis models were utilized to investigate the association of surveillance with patient characteristics and survival.

RESULTS

A total of 305 patients with HCC and a background of cirrhosis were analyzed. HCC was detected by surveillance in 131 patients (43%). Of those who underwent surveillance, 92% were diagnosed with early-stage cancer (stages I and II) compared with 62% of those who did not undergo surveillance (P<0.001). The rate of surgical therapy (hepatic resection and liver transplantation) was almost doubled in the surveillance group (61% vs. 33%, P<0.05). At median follow-up of 27.3 months, overall survival was high at 55% and surveillance was significantly associated with longer survival (P=0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

At our center, surveillance efficacy for HCC detection was notably higher than earlier reported.

IMPACT

Patients who underwent surveillance were more likely to have their tumors detected at an early stage, to qualify for surgical therapy, and to have improved survival.

A new approach to the use of α-fetoprotein as surveillance test for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended in patients with cirrhosis. As α-fetoprotein (AFP) is considered a poor surveillance test, we tested the performance of its changes over time.

METHODS

Eighty patients were diagnosed with HCC (cases) during semiannual surveillance with ultrasonography and AFP measurement were recruited and matched for age, gender, etiology and Child-Pugh class with 160 contemporary cancer-free controls undergoing the same surveillance training group (TG). As a validation group (VG) we considered 36 subsequent patients diagnosed with HCC, matched 1 : 3 with contemporary cancer-free controls. α-Fetoprotein values at the time of HCC diagnosis (T0) and its changes over the 12 (Δ12) and 6 months (Δ6) before cancer detection were considered.

RESULTS

In both TG and VG, >80% of HCCs were found at an early stage. In TG, AFP significantly increased over time only in cases. T0 AFP and a positive Δ6 were independently associated with HCC diagnosis (odds ratio: 1.031 and 2.402, respectively). The area under the curve of T0 AFP was 0.76 and its best cutoff (BC) was 10 ng ml(-1) (sensitivity 66.3%, specificity 80.6%). The combination of AFP >10 ng ml(-1) or a positive Δ6 composite α-fetoprotein index (CAI) increased the sensitivity to 80% with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 86.2%. Negative predictive value rose to 99%, considering a cancer prevalence of 3%. In the VG, the AFP-BC was again 10 ng ml(-1) (sensitivity 66.7%, specificity 88.9%), and CAI sensitivity was 80.6% with a NPV value of 90.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

CAI achieves adequate sensitivity and NPV as a surveillance test for the early detection of HCC in cirrhosis.

Mortality of major cancers in Guangxi, China: sex, age and geographical differences from 1971 and 2005

The incidence and mortality rates of liver and nasopharyngeal cancer in Guangxi province of China have always been among the highest in the world, and cancer is one of the major diseases that pose a threat to the health of residents in Guangxi. However, no systematic study has been performed to evaluate the time trends in the structure of cancer-related deaths and cancer mortality. In this study, we reveal sex, age and geography differences of cancers mortality between three death surveys (1971 to 1973, 1990 to 1992, and 2004 to 2005). The results show that the standardized mortality rate of cancer in Guangxi residents has risen from 43.3/100,000 to 84.2/100,000, the share of cancer deaths in all-cause deaths has increased from 13.3% to 20.7%, and cancer has become the second most common cause of death. The five major cancers, liver cancer, lung cancer, gastric cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer and colorectal cancer, account for 60% of all the cancer deaths. Cancers with growing mortality rates over the past 30 years include lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer and female breast cancer, of which lung cancer is associated with the sharpest rise in mortality, with a more than 600% rise in both men and women. Cancer death in Guangxi residents occurs mainly in the elderly population above 45 years of age, especially in people over the age of 65. The areas with the highest mortality rates for liver cancer and nasopharyngeal cancer, which feature regional high incidences, include Chongzuo and Wuzhou. Therefore, for major cancers such as liver cancer, lung cancer, gastric cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer and female breast cancer in Guangxi, we can select high-risk age groups as the target population for cancer prevention and control efforts in high-prevalence areas in a bid to achieve the ultimate goal of lowering cancer mortality in Guangxi.