The Natural History of Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Defined by Transient Elastography

Noninvasive Evaluation of Prolonged-Release Pirfenidone in Compensated Liver Cirrhosis. ODISEA Study, a Randomised Trial

BACKGROUND

Advanced liver fibrosis (ALF) predicts an adverse prognosis in chronic liver disease. In addition to etiological treatment, a new approach to stop or reverse residual fibrosis is desirable.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy and safety of prolonged-release pirfenidone (PR-PFD) versus placebo in compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

180 patients with ALF (F4) were randomly assigned to: placebo, 1200 mg/d, and 1800 mg/d PR-PFD, plus standardised care, for 24mo. Frequency of lab tests: (3mo), liver stiffness measurement (LSM), FibroTest, ultrasound (US) (6mo), and endoscopy (annually).

RESULTS

Fibrosis evolution estimated from LSM was significantly lower only in the 1200 compared to placebo and 1800 groups (24.2 ± 2.4 vs. 15.4 ± 2.4; 27.6 ± 2.4 vs. 24.6 ± 2.4; 24.4 ± 2.3 vs. 23.3 ± 2.3 kPa, respectively, p < 0.001), in intergroup analysis, meeting the primary endpoint. Fibrotest was significantly lower only in the 1200 mg/d group, compared to baseline values (0.86 ± 0.02 vs. 0.83 ± 0.02 units, p < 0.001). Liver function test (LFT's) also improved as well as Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and quality of life (QoL). Decompensations occurred in 19 patients: 12 ascites (more frequent in placebo, p = 0.003), 5 variceal bleeding, 4 encephalopathies, 4 hepatocarcinomas. Adverse events were mainly mild gastrointestinal (n = 35, 48 and 46, p = 0.010) and cutaneous (n = 12, 15, and 22, p = 0.0001) in placebo, 1200 and 1800 mg/day, respectively.

CONCLUSION

PR-PFD at a dose of 1200 mg significantly decreased non-invasive liver fibrosis markers at 24 months and induced improvement in LFT's, MELD, and QoL in compensated cirrhosis, without safety concerns.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01046474.

Does the change in Liver Frailty Index over the first week of hospitalisation predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure? A prospective cohort study from a Slovak liver centre

OBJECTIVE

Hospital admissions for advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) are associated with increased mortality, disability, a decline in quality of life and significant economic costs. Being admitted to the hospital usually indicates a triggering event that disrupted a previously stable condition, leading to decompensation or complications of ACLD. The most acute and severe manifestation of this imbalance is acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), a syndrome representing a critical juncture. Reliable prognostic stratification of patients admitted with ACLF could facilitate the systematic delivery of tailored care, ranging from palliative care to intensive interventions like extracorporeal liver support devices and prioritised liver transplantation. Disease-specific prognostic tools, such as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, are effective but have limitations, particularly in reflecting a patient's potential for recovery. The concept of the body's functional reserve in the context of ACLD/ACLF is gaining attention, with the Liver Frailty Index (LFI) potentially emerging as a recommended diagnostic tool.

METHODS

Patients were selected from our cirrhosis registry (RH7). The LFI serves as an indicator of the patient's prognosis. The LFI measurement takes place at two time intervals: on the patient's admission and after 7 days of hospitalisation.

RESULTS

Our RH7 registry included 154 patients (15.1%) who were diagnosed with ACLF. The primary cause of the underlying ACLD was alcohol-associated liver disease in the majority (79.8%) of cases. The mean value of LFI at admission was 4.50 (± 0.94). When patients with liver cirrhosis were categorised into three subgroups based on the LFI on day 7, survival exhibited a statistically significant decrease (p≤0.05) across all three ACLF grades. This decline in survival was observed from the 'improved LFI' cohort, through the 'stable LFI' group, to the 'worsened LFI' group.

CONCLUSION

The impact of day 7 LFI on the survival of patients with ACLF is notable. Nevertheless, it does not markedly enhance the predictive capability of the LFI assessed on admission. Consequently, the initial LFI on day 1 continues to be the most valuable and commonly used instrument for promptly recognising individuals with ACLF.

Preventing the progression of cirrhosis to decompensation and death

Two main stages are differentiated in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD), one compensated (cACLD) with an excellent prognosis, and the other decompensated (dACLD), defined by the appearance of complications (ascites, variceal bleeding and hepatic encephalopathy) and associated with high mortality. Preventing the progression to dACLD might dramatically improve prognosis and reduce the burden of care associated with ACLD. Portal hypertension is a major driver of the transition from cACLD to dACLD, and a portal pressure of ≥10 mmHg defines clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) as the threshold from which decompensating events may occur. In recent years, innovative studies have provided evidence supporting new strategies to prevent decompensation in cACLD. These studies have yielded major advances, including the development of noninvasive tests (NITs) to identify patients with CSPH with reasonable confidence, the demonstration that aetiological therapies can prevent disease progression and even achieve regression of cirrhosis, and the finding that non-selective β-blockers can effectively prevent decompensation in patients with cACLD and CSPH, mainly by reducing the risk of ascites, the most frequent decompensating event. Here, we review the evidence supporting new strategies to manage cACLD to prevent decompensation and the caveats for their implementation, from patient selection using NITs to ancillary therapies.

Noninvasive assessment of hepatic decompensation

Noninvasive tests (NITs) are used in all aspects of liver disease management. Their most prominent break-through since the millennium has been in advancing early detection of liver fibrosis, but their use is not limited to this. In contrast to the symptom-driven assessment of decompensation in patients with cirrhosis, NITs provide not only opportunities for earlier diagnoses but also accurate prognostication, targeted treatment decisions, and a means of monitoring disease. NITs can inform disease management and decision-making based on validated cutoffs and standardized interpretations as a valuable supplement to clinical acumen. The Baveno VI and VII consensus meetings resulted in tangible improvements to pathways of care for patients with compensated and decompensated advanced chronic liver disease, including the combination of platelet count and transient elastography to diagnose clinically significant portal hypertension. Furthermore, circulating NITs will play increasingly important roles in assessing the response to interventions against ascites, variceal bleeding, HE, acute kidney injury, and infections. However, due to NITs' wide availability, there is a risk of inaccurate use, leading to a waste of resources and flawed decisions. In this review, we describe the uses and pitfalls of NITs for hepatic decompensation, from risk stratification in primary care to treatment decisions in outpatient clinics, as well as for the in-hospital management of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. We summarize which NITs to use when, for what indications, and how to maximize the potential of NITs for improved patient management.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor delta and liver diseases

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are nuclear receptors involved in transcriptional regulation and play an important role in many physiological and metabolic processes. Unlike PPAR-alpha and PPAR-gamma, PPAR-delta is ubiquitously expressed, and its activity is key to maintaining proper metabolic homeostasis within the liver. PPAR-delta not only regulates physiologic processes of lipid, glucose, and bile acid metabolism but also attenuates pathologic responses to alcohol metabolism, inflammation, fibrosis, and carcinogenesis, and is considered an important therapeutic target in liver diseases. Promising results have been reported in clinical trials for PPAR-delta agonists in liver disease, and the selective agonist seladelpar was recently conditionally approved in the United States as a new treatment option for primary biliary cholangitis. This review provides an overview of PPAR-delta's function and biology in the liver, examines its kinetics and therapeutic potential across different liver diseases, and discusses the current status of clinical trials involving its agonists.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Strategies in Patients With Compensated Liver Cirrhosis in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness (CE) of 4 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance strategies in the United Kingdom, the GAAD algorithm, which combines Gender (biological sex) and Age with Elecsys® biomarker assays, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (previously Des-γ-carboxy prothrombin); ultrasound (US); US + AFP and GAAD + US.

METHODS

A de novo microsimulation state-transition Markov model was developed in Microsoft Excel® from the perspective of the United Kingdom National Health Service to calculate life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, incremental CE ratios, and net monetary benefits. Parameters were sourced from peer-reviewed published literature, national guidelines, and public cost databases. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of parameter and structural uncertainty on the results.

RESULTS

In a simulated cohort of 100 000 patients, discounted costs and QALYs per patient were £8663 and 6·066 for US, £9095 and 6·076 for US + AFP, £8719 and 6·078 for GAAD alone, and £9114 and 6·086 for GAAD + US. At a CE threshold of £20 000/QALY, GAAD was the most cost-effective strategy; however, although most costly, GAAD + US was the most clinically effective. Sensitivity and scenario analyses indicated that HCC incidence along with costs associated with diagnostic performance influence CE.

CONCLUSION

Considering the cost of US and low incidence of HCC in the United Kingdom, this study suggests that GAAD alone or in combination with US are cost-effective surveillance strategies compared with US and US + AFP. Although GAAD + US showed the highest QALY increase, GAAD alone is considered preferable regarding CE; however, better performance estimates for GAAD + US are needed to confirm.

A roadmap for clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis

Although metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is rapidly becoming a leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, therapeutic options are limited and the number of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis is low as compared to those conducted in earlier disease stages. Moreover, designing clinical trials in MASH cirrhosis presents a series of challenges regarding the understanding and conceptualization of the natural history, regulatory considerations, inclusion criteria, recruitment, end points and trial duration, among others. The first international workshop on the state of the art and future direction of clinical trials in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis was held in April 2023 at Vall d'Hebron University Hospital in Barcelona (Spain) and was attended by a group of international experts on clinical trials from academia, regulatory agencies and industry, encompassing expertise in MASH, cirrhosis, portal hypertension, and regulatory affairs. The presented Roadmap summarizes important content of the workshop on current status, regulatory requirements and end points in MASH-related compensated cirrhosis clinical trials, exploring alternative study designs and highlighting the challenges that should be considered for upcoming studies on MASH cirrhosis.

Body mass index of 23 or greater is relevant to hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in patients with harmful alcohol use

BACKGROUND

Steatotic liver disease, characterized by a combination of metabolic dysfunction, alcohol use, or specific etiologies, is a leading cause of chronic liver disease. However, the role of metabolic dysfunction in chronic liver disease with harmful alcohol use remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate factors associated with hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in patients with harmful alcohol use.

METHODS

Over a 2-year period, we registered patients with harmful alcohol use, defined by an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score of 8 or higher. We retrospectively analyzed background information, blood test results, ultrasound-guided attenuation parameter (attenuation coefficient), and liver stiffness measurement. Hepatic steatosis was defined as attenuation coefficient ≥0.65 dB/cm/MHz, and fibrosis as liver stiffness measurement ≥7.5 kPa.

RESULTS

The study included 131 patients (82% men, median age 59 years). Linear regression analysis revealed significant associations with attenuation coefficient for body mass index ≥23 (0.08, p < 0.0001) and age (-0.002, p = 0.002). Liver stiffness measurement was associated with body mass index ≥23 (2.52, p = 0.001), aspartate aminotransferase (0.02, p = 0.0189), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (0.008, p < 0.0001), platelet count (-0.02, p = 0.001), and prothrombin international normalized ratio (26.40, p < 0.0001). Among the four groups classified by the presence or absence of steatosis and fibrosis, patients with fibrosis, but without steatosis, demonstrated the lowest liver reserve. In contrast, patients with both steatosis and fibrosis showed higher aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Body mass index is associated with both hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in patients with harmful alcohol use.

WFUMB Guideline/Guidance on Liver Multiparametric Ultrasound: Part 1. Update to 2018 Guidelines on Liver Ultrasound Elastography

The World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (WFUMB) endorsed the development of this document on multiparametric ultrasound. Part 1 is an update to the WFUMB Liver Elastography Guidelines Update released in 2018 and provides new evidence on the role of ultrasound elastography in chronic liver disease. The recommendations in this update were made and graded using the Oxford classification, including level of evidence (LoE), grade of recommendation (GoR) and proportion of agreement (Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine [OCEBM] 2009). The guidelines are clinically oriented, and the role of shear wave elastography in both fibrosis staging and prognostication in different etiologies of liver disease is discussed, highlighting advantages and limitations. A comprehensive section is devoted to the assessment of portal hypertension, with specific recommendations for the interpretation of liver and spleen stiffness measurements in this setting.

Liver stiffness predicts progression to liver-related events in patients with chronic liver disease - A cohort study of 14 414 patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is a non-invasive diagnostic biomarker of liver fibrosis. It is uncertain if LSM can predict risk for future liver-related outcomes in large, heterogenous populations.

METHODS

This Swedish multi-centre cohort study included patients (n = 14 414) from 16 sites who underwent LSM by VCTE between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were ascertained from national registers. We investigated progression to cirrhosis with portal hypertension or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), separately. Cox regression was used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs). Harrel's C-index was used to measure discrimination of VCTE.

RESULTS

Included patients had a median age of 46 (interquartile range 34-57), median LSM of 5.9 kPa (4.6-8.0), 59% were male, and the majority had hepatitis C (50.1%). During a median follow-up of 5.9 (4.3-8.0) years, 402 patients (2.7%) developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension. In patients with an LSM ≥25 kPa, 28.7% developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension within 5 years of follow-up, while only .6% of patients with an LSM <10 kPa did. This translated to a HR of 48.3 (95% confidence interval = 37.6-62.0). VCTE had a high discriminative ability, with C-indices above .80 for most liver diseases, including .82 for MASLD. Similar findings were seen for incident HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased LSM by VCTE was associated with an increased risk of progression to both cirrhosis with portal hypertension, and to HCC, and had a high discriminative ability across different aetiologies of chronic liver diseases. These results support the use of VCTE to guide follow-up and treatment decisions.

Construction of a nomogram for predicting compensated cirrhosis with Wilson's disease based on non-invasive indicators

BACKGROUND

Wilson's disease (WD) often leads to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, and early diagnosis of WD cirrhosis is essential. Currently, there are few non-invasive prediction models for WD cirrhosis. The purpose of this study is to non-invasively predict the occurrence risk of compensated WD cirrhosis based on ultrasound imaging features and clinical characteristics.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the clinical characteristics and ultrasound examination data of 102 WD patients from November 2018 to November 2020 was conducted. According to the staging system for WD liver involvement, the patients were divided into a cirrhosis group (n = 43) and a non-cirrhosis group (n = 59). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent influencing factors for WD cirrhosis. A nomogram for predicting WD cirrhosis was constructed using R analysis software, and validation of the model's discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability was completed. Due to the low incidence of WD and the small sample size, bootstrap internal sampling with 500 iterations was adopted for validation to prevent overfitting of the model.

RESULTS

Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI), portal vein diameter (PVD), and serum albumin (ALB) are independent factors affecting WD cirrhosis. A nomogram for WD cirrhosis was constructed based on these factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model's predictive ability is 0.927 (95% CI: 0.88-0.978). As demonstrated by 500 Bootstrap internal sampling validations, the model has high discrimination and calibration. Clinical decision curve analysis shows that the model has high clinical practical value. ROC curve analysis of the model's rationality indicates that the model's AUC is greater than the AUC of using ALB, ARFI, and PVD alone.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model constructed based on ARFI, PVD, and ALB can serve as a non-invasive tool to effectively predict the risk of developing WD cirrhosis.

Multiparametric ultrasound as a new concept of assessment of liver tissue damage

Liver disease accounts for approximately 2 million deaths per year worldwide. All chronic liver diseases (CLDs), whether of toxic, genetic, autoimmune, or infectious origin, undergo typical histological changes in the structure of the tissue. These changes may include the accumulation of extracellular matrix material, fats, triglycerides, or tissue scarring. Noninvasive methods for diagnosing CLD, such as conventional B-mode ultrasound (US), play a significant role in diagnosis. Doppler US, when coupled with B-mode US, can be helpful in evaluating the hemodynamics of hepatic vessels and detecting US findings associated with hepatic decompensation. US elastography can assess liver stiffness, serving as a surrogate marker for liver fibrosis. It is important to note that interpreting these values should not rely solely on a histological classification. Contrast-enhanced US (CEUS) provides valuable information on tissue perfusion and enables excellent differentiation between benign and malignant focal liver lesions. Clinical evaluation, the etiology of liver disease, and the patient current comorbidities all influence the interpretation of liver stiffness measurements. These measurements are most clinically relevant when interpreted as a probability of compensated advanced CLD. B-mode US offers a subjective estimation of fatty infiltration and has limited sensitivity for mild steatosis. The controlled attenuation parameter requires a dedicated device, and cutoff values are not clearly defined. Quan-titative US parameters for liver fat estimation include the attenuation coefficient, backscatter coefficient, and speed of sound. These parameters offer the advantage of providing fat quantification alongside B-mode evaluation and other US parameters. Multiparametric US (MPUS) of the liver introduces a new concept for complete noninvasive diagnosis. It encourages examiners to utilize the latest features of an US machine, including conventional B-mode, liver stiffness evaluation, fat quantification, dispersion imaging, Doppler US, and CEUS for focal liver lesion characterization. This comprehensive approach allows for diagnosis in a single examination, providing clinicians worldwide with a broader perspective and becoming a cornerstone in their diagnostic arsenal. MPUS, in the hands of skilled clinicians, becomes an invaluable predictive tool for diagnosing, staging, and monitoring CLD.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Update on the role of elastography in liver disease

The diagnosis of liver fibrosis and the assessment of its severity are important to provide appropriate management, to determine the prognosis or the need for surveillance. Currently, for fibrosis staging, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with the shear wave elastography (SWE) techniques is considered a reliable substitute for liver biopsy in several clinical scenarios. Nonetheless, it should be emphasized that stiffness value is a biomarker of diffuse liver disease that must be interpreted taking into consideration anamnesis, clinical and laboratory data. In patients with diffuse liver disease, it is more clinically relevant to determine the likelihood of advanced disease rather than to obtain an exact stage of liver fibrosis using a histologic classification. In this regard, a 'rule of five' for LSMs with vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and a 'rule of four' for LSMs with the acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI)-based techniques have been proposed. In patients with advanced chronic liver disease (CLD), the risk of liver decompensation increases with increasing liver stiffness value. SWE has been proposed as a tool to predict the risk of death or complications in patients with CLD. LSM by VCTE combined with platelets count is a validated non-invasive method for varices screening, with very good results in terms of invasive procedures being spared. ARFI-based techniques also show some promising results in this setting. LSM, alone or combined in scores or algorithms with other parameters, is used to evaluate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence. Due to the high prevalence of CLD, screening the population at risk is of interest but further studies are needed.

Non-Invasive Tests of Liver Fibrosis Help in Predicting the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma among Patients with NAFLD

Background: The potential role of non-invasive tests (NITs) for liver fibrosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction remains poorly known. Methods: Retrospective analysis of a NAFLD cohort from a single university hospital in Barcelona, Spain. Incidence rates and cumulative incidence for the overall cohort, as well as cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients were calculated. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to investigate risk factors of HCC. Results: From the entire cohort of 1040 patients, 996 patients (95.8%) were analyzed, in whom 35 cases of HCC were detected, of which 26 (72.4%) HCC incident cases were newly diagnosed during a median follow-up of 2.5 (1.9−3.6) years. Two-hundred and thirty-one (23.2%) were cirrhotic at baseline. With the exception of 2 (7.7%) cases of HCC, the rest were diagnosed in cirrhotic patients. Overall HCC cumulative incidence was 9.49 (95% CI 6.4−13.9) per 1000 person-years. The incidence rate for cirrhotic patients was 41.2 (95% CI 27.6−61.6) per 1000 person-years and 0.93 (95% CI 0.23−3.7) per 1000 person-years for patients without cirrhosis. Overall mortality was significantly higher amongst patients with HCC (4.4% vs. 30.8%, p < 0.001). In patients with available liver biopsy (n = 249, 25%), advanced fibrosis (F3−F4) was significantly associated with higher HCC incidence, but not steatosis, lobular inflammation, nor ballooning. In the overall cohort, FIB-4 ≥1.3 (HR 8.46, 95% CI 1.06−67.4, p = 0.044) and older age (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.01−1.11, p = 0.025) were associated with increasing risk of HCC over time, whereas in cirrhotic patients predictors of HCC included decreasing values of albumin (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13−0.87, p = 0.024), platelets (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98−0.99, p = 0.001), and increasing values of liver stiffness (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00−1.06, p = 0.016). Conclusions: In a Spanish cohort of NAFLD patients, HCC was rare in non-cirrhotic patients. NITs might play a relevant role at predicting HCC.