The complexity of global change and its effects on insects

Impact of climate change on the reproductive diapause and voltinism of the carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis

The impacts of climate change on the development of insects are of great concern due to potential alterations in population dynamics and pest pressure. The carrot weevil, Listronotus oregonensis, is a major agricultural pest, and its development is influenced by temperature and photoperiod. In this study, our aim was to investigate the impact of temperature increases on the voltinism and reproductive diapause of the carrot weevil under field conditions and bioclimatic models. Field observations were conducted over two growing seasons using structures that allowed for temperature increases. The developmental stages of the carrot weevil, including female reproductive status, oviposition and larval stage, were monitored weekly to measure the proportion of individuals undergoing an additional generation. Concurrently, bioclimatic models were used to simulate the probability of a second generation under current (1981-2010) and future (2041-2070) climates, considering a lower and a higher change in emission scenarios. Results showed that rising temperatures led to an increase in the proportion of carrot weevils undergoing inhibition of the reproductive diapause and a higher number of eggs laid in the field. The models indicated a substantial rise in the probability of a second generation developing, from 24% to 37% to 62%-99% under current and future climates, respectively. These findings demonstrate the potential for significant alterations in carrot weevil population dynamics, resulting in increased pest pressure on crops. Further research is needed to fully understand the implications of these findings and to develop effective adaptation measures to mitigate the negative impacts of global warming on insect populations and agriculture.

Shifting the paradigm: The role of introduced plants in the resiliency of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Current ecological communities are in a constant state of flux from climate change and from species introductions. Recent discussion has focused on the positive roles introduced species can play in ecological communities and on the importance of conserving resilient ecosystems, but not how these two ideas intersect. There has been insufficient work to define the attributes needed to support ecosystem resilience to climate change in modern communities. Here, I argue that non-invasive, introduced plant species could play an important role in supporting the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Using examples from multiple taxonomic groups and ecosystems, I discuss how introduced plants can contribute to ecosystem resilience via their roles in plant and insect communities, as well as their associated ecosystem functions. I highlight the current and potential contributions of introduced plants and where there are critical knowledge gaps. Determining when and how introduced plants are contributing to the resilience of ecosystems to climate change will contribute to effective conservation strategies.

Geographic variation in larval cold tolerance and exposure across the invasion front of a widely established forest insect

Under global climate change, high and low temperature extremes can drive shifts in species distributions. Across the range of a species, thermal tolerance is based on acclimatization, plasticity, and may undergo selection, shaping resilience to temperature stress. In this study, we measured variation in cold temperature tolerance of early instar larvae of an invasive forest insect, Lymantria dispar dispar L. (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), using populations sourced from a range of climates within the current introduced range in the Eastern United States. We tested for population differences in chill coma recovery (CCR) by measuring recovery time following a period of exposure to a nonlethal cold temperature in 2 cold exposure experiments. A 3rd experiment quantified growth responses after CCR to evaluate sublethal effects. Our results indicate that cold tolerance is linked to regional climate, with individuals from populations sourced from colder climates recovering faster from chill coma. While this geographic gradient is seen in many species, detecting this pattern is notable for an introduced species founded from a single point-source introduction. We demonstrate that the cold temperatures used in our experiments occur in nature during cold spells after spring egg hatch, but impacts to growth and survival appear low. We expect that population differences in cold temperature performance manifest more from differences in temperature-dependent growth than acute exposure. Evaluating intraspecific variation in cold tolerance increases our understanding of the role of climatic gradients on the physiology of an invasive species, and contributes to tools for predicting further expansion.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Complexity, humility, and action: a current perspective on monarchs in Western North America

Recent studies have continued to shed light on the ecology of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in western North America. These studies have documented a declining overwintering population over several decades, punctuated by unexpected variability in recent years. Understanding this variability will require grappling with the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of resources and risks presented to western monarchs throughout their annual life cycle. Recent changes in the western monarch population further illustrate how interacting global change drivers can create complex causes and consequences in this system. The complexity of this system should inspire humility. However, even recognizing the limits of our current understanding, there is enough scientific common ground to take some conservation actions now.

Mild Winter Causes Increased Mortality in the Fall Webworm Hyphantria cunea (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae)

The fall webworm Hyphantria cunea (Drury) is native to North America and Mexico and has currently expanded its distribution to the temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere including Japan. According to the data on seasonal fluctuations of this moth for 18 years collected in western-central Japan, the abundance of adults of the overwintered generation showed a negative correlation with winter temperature. We investigated survival, weight loss, and fungal infection of diapausing pupae at 3.0 (an approximate temperature of cold winter) and 7.4 °C (a temperature of mild winter). In the results, mortality was higher and weight loss was larger in pupae exposed to 7.4 °C than in those exposed to 3.0 °C. In addition, pupae that were heavier at the start of cold exposure survived longer than lighter ones. Furthermore, almost all pupae that died at 7.4 °C were infected by fungi. It has been reported that the distribution range of this moth shifts to higher latitudes. According to the experiments conducted, it has been observed that warm winters can lead to a decrease in pupae weight and an increase in fungal deaths; however, the impact of warm winters on populations in the field can be more complicated and multifaceted.

Interaction Networks Help to Infer the Vulnerability of the Saproxylic Beetle Communities That Inhabit Tree Hollows in Mediterranean Forests

Insect communities are facing contrasting responses due to global change. However, knowledge on impacts of communities' reorganizations is scarce. Network approaches could help to envision community changes in different environmental scenarios. Saproxylic beetles were selected to examine long-term variations in insect interaction/diversity patterns and their vulnerability to global change. We evaluated interannual differences in network patterns in the tree hollow-saproxylic beetle interaction using absolute samplings over an 11-year interval in three Mediterranean woodland types. We explored saproxylic communities' vulnerability to microhabitat loss via simulated extinctions and by recreating threat scenarios based on decreasing microhabitat suitability. Although temporal diversity patterns varied between woodland types, network descriptors showed an interaction decline. The temporal beta-diversity of interactions depended more on interaction than on species turnover. Interaction and diversity temporal shifts promoted less specialized and more vulnerable networks, which is particularly worrisome in the riparian woodland. Network procedures evidenced that saproxylic communities are more vulnerable today than 11 years ago irrespective of whether species richness increased or decreased, and the situation could worsen in the future depending on tree hollow suitability. Network approaches were useful for predicting saproxylic communities' vulnerability across temporal scenarios and, thus, for providing valuable information for management and conservation programs.

Cross effects of heat stress and three insecticides on the survival of the codling moth Cydia pomonella (L.): Investigating the molecular and biochemical mechanisms

As temperature is expected to strongly increase in the future, understanding temperature-mediated toxicity of insecticides is determinant to assess pest management efficiency in a warming world. Investigating molecular and biochemical mechanisms associated with cross mechanisms of temperature and insecticides on pests' tolerance would also be useful in this context. This study aimed to investigate cross effects between temperature and insecticides on the survival of a major pest, the codling moth Cydia pomonella, and their underlying mechanisms. The effect of three insecticidal active ingredients, i.e. chlorantraniliprole, emamectin and spinosad, was assessed at different temperatures on: (i) C. pomonella larval survival; (ii) detoxification enzymes activities (cytochrome P450 multi-function oxygenases, carboxylesterases and glutathione S-transferases) and (iii) genes expression of some detoxification enzymes, heat shock proteins and receptors targeted by the insecticides. We observed a decreased efficiency of emamectin and spinosad at high temperature to control the codling moth while no influence of temperature on chlorantraniliprole efficacy was observed. Detoxification enzymes activities were improved by heat stress alone but not by double stress (temperature + insecticides). Moreover, two detoxification genes (Cyp9A61 and Gst1) were over-expressed by a single stress but not by two stresses while Hsp70 and Cyp6B2 genes may be involved in tolerance to two stresses in C. pomonella. These results confirmed the cross effects of temperature and insecticides on C. pomonella for emamectin and spinosad and provided clues to understand how temperature affects the susceptibility of C. pomonella to insecticides. They illustrate however the complexity of molecular and biochemical responses of individuals facing multiple stresses.

Different factors limit early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch development

Seasonal windows of opportunity are intervals within a year that provide improved prospects for growth, survival, or reproduction. However, few studies have sufficient temporal resolution to examine how multiple factors combine to constrain the seasonal timing and extent of developmental opportunities. Here, we document seasonal changes in milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis)-monarch (Danaus plexippus) interactions with high resolution throughout the last three breeding seasons prior to a precipitous single-year decline in the western monarch population. Our results show early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch recruitment that were constrained by different combinations of factors. Early-season windows of opportunity were characterized by high egg densities and low survival on a select subset of host plants, consistent with the hypothesis that early-spring migrant female monarchs select earlier-emerging plants to balance a seasonal trade-off between increasing host plant quantity and decreasing host plant quality. Late-season windows of opportunity were coincident with the initiation of host plant senescence, and caterpillar success was negatively correlated with heatwave exposure, consistent with the hypothesis that late-season windows were constrained by plant defense traits and thermal stress. Throughout this study, climatic and microclimatic variations played a foundational role in the timing and success of monarch developmental windows by affecting bottom-up, top-down, and abiotic limitations. More exposed microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during cooler conditions, and more shaded microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during warmer conditions, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity could buffer the effects of climatic variation. Together, these findings show an important dimension of seasonal change in milkweed-monarch interactions and illustrate how different biotic and abiotic factors can limit the developmental success of monarchs across the breeding season. These results also suggest the potential for seasonal sequences of favorable or unfavorable conditions across the breeding range to strongly affect monarch population dynamics.

Growth and development of an invasive forest insect under current and future projected temperature regimes

Temperature and its impact on fitness are fundamental for understanding range shifts and population dynamics under climate change. Geographic climate heterogeneity, behavioral and physiological plasticity, and thermal adaptation to local climates make predicting the responses of species to climate change complex. Using larvae from seven geographically distinct wild populations in the eastern United States of the non‐native forest pest Lymantria dispar dispar (L.), we conducted a simulated reciprocal transplant experiment in environmental chambers using six custom temperature regimes representing contemporary conditions near the southern and northern extremes of the US invasion front and projections under two climate change scenarios for the year 2050. Larval growth and development rates increased with climate warming compared with current thermal regimes and tended to be greater for individuals originally sourced from southern rather than northern populations. Although increases in growth and development rates with warming varied somewhat by region of the source population, there was not strong evidence of local adaptation, southern populations tended to outperform those from northern populations in all thermal regimes. Our study demonstrates the utility of simulating thermal regimes under climate change in environmental chambers and emphasizes how the impacts from future increases in temperature can vary based on geographic differences in climate‐related performance among populations.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Island Bees: The Aegean Archipelago

Pollinators’ climate change impact assessments focus mainly on mainland regions. Thus, we are unaware how island species might fare in a rapidly changing world. This is even more pressing in the Mediterranean Basin, a global biodiversity hotspot. In Greece, a regional pollinator hotspot, climate change research is in its infancy and the insect Wallacean shortfall still remains unaddressed. In a species distribution modelling framework, we used the most comprehensive occurrence database for bees in Greece to locate the bee species richness hotspots in the Aegean, and investigated whether these might shift in the future due to climate change and assessed the Natura 2000 protected areas network effectiveness. Range contractions are anticipated for most taxa, becoming more prominent over time. Species richness hotspots are currently located in the NE Aegean and in highly disturbed sites. They will shift both altitudinally and latitudinally in the future. A small proportion of these hotspots are currently included in the Natura 2000 protected areas network and this proportion is projected to decrease in the coming decades. There is likely an extinction debt present in the Aegean bee communities that could result to pollination network collapse. There is a substantial conservation gap in Greece regarding bees and a critical re-assessment of the established Greek protected areas network is needed, focusing on areas identified as bee diversity hotspots over time.