Temperature-sensitive development shapes insect phenological responses to climate change

Potential for bird-insect phenological mismatch in a tri-trophic system

Climate change is altering the seasonal timing of biological events across the tree of life. Phenological asynchrony has the potential to hasten population declines and disrupt ecosystem function. However, we lack broad comparisons of the degree of sensitivity to common phenological cues across multiple trophic levels. Overcoming the complexity of integrating data across trophic levels is essential for identifying spatial locations and species for which mismatches are most likely to occur. Here, we synthesized over 15 years of data across three trophic levels to estimate the timing of four interacting phenological events in eastern North America: the green-up of forest canopy trees, emergence of adult Lepidoptera and arrival and subsequent breeding of migratory birds. We next quantified the magnitude of phenological shift per one unit change of springtime temperature accumulation as measured by accumulated growing degree days (GDD). We expected trophic responses to spring temperature accumulation to be related to physiology, thus predicting a weaker response of birds to GDD than that of insects and plants. We found that insect and plant phenology indeed had similarly strong sensitivity to GDD, while bird phenology had lower sensitivity. We also found that vegetation green-up and bird arrival were more sensitive to GDD in higher latitudes, but the timing of bird breeding was less sensitive to GDD in higher latitudes. Migratory bird species with slow migration pace, early arrivals and more northerly wintering grounds shifted their arrival the most. Across Eastern Temperate Forests, the similar responses of vegetation green-up and Lepidoptera emergence to temperature shifts support the use of remotely sensed green-up to track how the timing of bird food resources is shifting in response to climate change. Our results indicate that, across our plant-insect-bird system, the bird-insect phenological link has a greater potential for phenological mismatch than the insect-plant link, with a higher risk of decoupling at higher latitudes.

Climate Warming Increases the Voltinism of Pine Caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler): Model Predictions Across Elevations and Latitudes in Shandong Province, China

The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus spectabilis Bulter, Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is a destructive insect threatening forest communities across Eurasia. The pest is polyvoltine, and under global warming, more favorable temperatures can lead to additional generations. Here, we simulated the pine caterpillar voltinism under current and future climatic scenarios based on insect thermal physiology and cumulative growing degree day (CGDD) model. Subsequently, we revealed the future change patterns of the voltinism along elevational and latitudinal gradients. The results showed that both CGDD and pine caterpillar voltinism are increasing. The current voltinism of pine caterpillar ranges from 1.26 to 1.56 generations (1.40 ± 0.07), with an increasing trend of 0.04/10a. Similar trends are expected to continue under the future climate scenarios, with values of 0.01/10a, 0.05/10a, 0.07/10a, and 0.09/10a for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. At the elevation and latitudinal gradients, voltinism increases across all ranges, peaking at 500-1000 m and latitudes of 34-34.5° N. This study highlights that the increase in voltinism is not limited to low-elevation and -latitude regions but is predicted across various elevations and latitudes. These findings can enhance our understanding of how climate change affects pine caterpillar voltinism and contribute to forest pest management strategies, although this study assumes a linear relationship between temperature and voltinism, without considering other ecological factors.

Impact of Different Temperatures on Activity of the Pest Monolepta hieroglyphica Motschulsky (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Monolepta hieroglyphica (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is widely distributed in China and is polyphorous, being a major pest to cash crops, such as corn, cotton, and millet. Given the increasing severity of the greenhouse effect in recent years, we aimed to investigate the adaptability of M. hieroglyphica adults to varying temperatures. In this study, we assessed the survival, longevity, fecundity, feeding capacity, and antioxidant capacity of leaf beetle adults under laboratory conditions at 25-34 °C. Elevated temperatures (i.e., 31 and 34 °C) had (negative) impacts on M. hieroglyphica adults' survival and reproduction. Similarly, the temperature negatively affected the feeding capacity of M. hieroglyphica adults, with the impact becoming more pronounced as the temperature increased. Under the same treatment time, the SOD and CAT activity levels increased with the increase in treatment temperature. The GST activity levels showed a decreasing trend. The POD activity showed a biphasic response to increasing temperatures, first decreasing and then increasing. The above indicates that different antioxidant enzymes of M. hieroglyphica adults have different levels of sensitivity to high temperatures. In the laboratory, our work analyzes the response of M. hieroglyphica adults to temperature from ecological and physiological research perspectives and provides strategies for strengthening its subsequent integrated pest management (IPM) under conditions of global warming or extreme weather events.

Temperature niche and body size condition phenological responses of moths to urbanization in a subtropical city

Urbanization in temperate climates often advances the beginning and peak of biological events due to multiple factors, especially urban heat islands. However, the effect of urbanization on insect phenology remains understudied in more tropical areas, where temperature may be a weaker phenological cue. We surveyed moths across an urban gradient in a subtropical city weekly for a year to test how impervious surface and canopy cover impact phenology at the caterpillar and adult life stages. For macro-moths, we also examine how these effects vary with life history traits. When pooling all individuals, we found no effect of urbanization proxy variables on timing of caterpillar or adult phenology. At the species-specific level, we found timing of peak adult macro-moths is influenced by canopy cover, which also interacts with two traits: temperature niche and body size. Cold-adapted species delay timing of peak abundance in more shaded sites, while warm-adapted species were not affected. Smaller species, associated with lower dispersal ability, were more phenologically sensitive to canopy cover than larger bodied species. These results highlight the importance of canopy cover within cities and its interaction with species' traits in mediating impact of urbanization on moth phenology in subtropical systems.

Insect size responses to climate change vary across elevations according to seasonal timing

Body size declines are a common response to warming via both plasticity and evolution, but variable size responses have been observed for terrestrial ectotherms. We investigate how temperature-dependent development and growth rates in ectothermic organisms induce variation in size responses. Leveraging long-term data for six montane grasshopper species spanning 1,768-3 901 m, we detect size shifts since ~1960 that depend on elevation and species' seasonal timing. Size shifts have been concentrated at low elevations, with the early emerging species (those that overwinter as juveniles) increasing in size, while later season species are becoming smaller. Interannual temperature variation accounts for the size shifts. The earliest season species may be able to take advantage of warmer conditions accelerating growth during early spring development, whereas warm temperatures may adversely impact later season species via mechanisms such as increased rates of energy use or thermal stress. Grasshoppers tend to capitalize on warm conditions by both getting bigger and reaching adulthood earlier. Our analysis further reinforces the need to move beyond expectations of universal responses to climate change to consider how environmental exposure and sensitivity vary across elevations and life histories.

Effects of temperature on the development of Rachiplusia nu (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Chrysodeixis includens (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and implications on population growth in Brazil

Temperature is an elementary component in mathematical models for predicting the biotic potential of insects. In this study, the objective was to evaluate the impact of different constant temperatures of 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 32°C on the biological parameters, lower temperature thresholds (TT), and estimating the number of annual generations (NAG) of Rachiplusia nu and Chrysodeixis includens, both pests associated with the soybean crop in Brazil. There was no development of the immature stages of R. nu at 8°C, as was also found for C. includens at 8 and 10°C. However, at 10°C all stages of R. nu developed. In general, temperatures of 20 and 25°C were the most suitable for the development of R. nu and C. includens, providing egg to adult viability of over 60% and the highest total fecundities. However, the temperature of 32°C negatively affected the parameters of the fertility life table. Rachiplusia nu showed the lowest TT (eggs: 4.9°C; larvae: 10.8°C; pupa: 14.1°C; and egg to adult: 8.9°C) when compared with C. includens (eggs: 7.5°C; larvae: 15.3°C; pupa: 16.1°C; and egg to adult: 11.3°C). Based on TT values, the NAG varied from 3.9 in cold regions to 7.5 in warm regions. However, for C. includens, we can infer that the species can reach up to 8.8 generations in warm regions. The results of the present study are important for understanding the occurrence of R. nu and C. includens in field conditions and can help with the implications of management strategies.

Impact of Climate Change on Peach Fruit Moth Phenology: A Regional Perspective from China

It is widely recognized that the phenology of insects, of which the life activities are closely tied to temperature, is shifting in response to global climate warming. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of climate change on the phenology of Carposina sasakii Matsumura, 1900 (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) across large temporal and spatial scales, through collecting and systematically analyzing historical data on the pest's occurrence and population dynamics in China. The results showed that for overwintering adults, the first occurrence date in eastern, northwestern, and northern China has significantly advanced, along with the population peak in eastern and northwestern China. At the provincial level, the population peak date in Shandong province has also moved significantly earlier, as well as the population peak date in Shandong and Shaanxi and the end occurrence date in Ningxia. However, the population peak date in Jilin has experienced a delayed trend. For first-generation adults, the first occurrence date in northeastern, eastern, and central China has notably advanced, while the first appearance date in northwestern and northern China has significantly delayed. Additionally, the population peak in northwestern China has experienced significant delays, along with the final occurrence in northeastern and northwestern China. At the provincial level, the first occurrence date in Liaoning, Shandong, and Shanxi has significantly advanced, while Hebei has demonstrated a significant delay. The population peak time in Gansu and Shaanxi has displayed significant delays, and the end occurrence date in Liaoning, Shanxi, and Shaanxi has also shown significant delays. Furthermore, these findings integrated with the Pearson correlation results reveal spatial heterogeneity in C. sasakii's phenological responses to climate warming at both regional and provincial scales. The phenology of C. sasakii and their changing patterns with climate warming vary by geographical location. This study provides valuable information for the future monitoring, prediction, and prevention of peach fruit moths in the context of climate warming.

Past, present and future of the two-spotted stink bug (Perillus bioculatus) in Europe revealed by citizen science

The introduction of the Nearctic predaceous stink bug species, (Perillus bioculatus) was attempted multiple times in various countries throughout Europe to mitigate the damage caused by the invasive and harmful pest species, the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata). Though these attempts were thought to be unsuccessful for decades, more recent data elucidated that the species have established small self-sustaining populations in the Balkans Peninsula, Southern Russia, and Türkiye and recently began to expand. In the past years, the European range of the species reached Eastern Europe. After the first individuals were found in Hungary in October 2023 a citizen science campaign was launched to investigate the distribution of the species in the country. By June 2024 it became evident that the species is established throughout the country. Furthermore, observations regarding beetle larvae and moth caterpillars as alternative prey were reported supporting the previous assumptions that the naturalization and expansion of the species in Europe is facilitated by dietary drift. Here, we summarize the knowledge on the European presence of the two-spotted stink bug and formulate hypotheses regarding its future distribution and the impact of the species on the insect communities of the newly colonized areas.

A quantitative model of temperature-dependent diapause progression

Winter diapause in insects is commonly terminated through cold exposure, which, like vernalization in plants, prevents development before spring arrives. Currently, quantitative understanding of the temperature dependence of diapause termination is limited, likely because diapause phenotypes are generally cryptic to human eyes. We introduce a methodology to tackle this challenge. By consecutively moving butterfly pupae of the species Pieris napi from several different cold conditions to 20 °C, we show that diapause termination proceeds as a temperature-dependent rate process, with maximal rates at relatively cold temperatures and low rates at warm and extremely cold temperatures. Further, we show that the resulting thermal reaction norm can predict P. napi diapause termination timing under variable temperatures. Last, we show that once diapause is terminated in P. napi, subsequent development follows a typical thermal performance curve, with a maximal development rate at around 31 °C and a minimum at around 2 °C. The sequence of these thermally distinct processes (diapause termination and postdiapause development) facilitates synchronous spring eclosion in nature; cold microclimates where diapause progresses quickly do not promote fast postdiapause development, allowing individuals in warmer winter microclimates to catch up, and vice versa. The unveiling of diapause termination as one temperature-dependent rate process among others promotes a parsimonious, quantitative, and predictive model, wherein winter diapause functions both as an adaptation against premature development during fall and winter and for synchrony in spring.

Timing-dependent effects of elevated temperature on reproductive traits in the European corn borer moth

Elevated temperature often has life stage-specific effects on ectotherms because thermal tolerance varies throughout ontogeny. Impacts of elevated temperature may extend beyond the exposed life stage if developmental plasticity causes early exposure to carry-over or if exposure at multiple life stages cumulatively produces effects. Reproductive traits may be sensitive to different thermal environments experienced during development, but such effects have not been comprehensively measured in Lepidoptera. In this study, we investigate how elevated temperature at different life stages alters reproduction in the European corn borer moth, Ostrinia nubilalis. We tested effects of exposure to elevated temperature (28 °C) separately or additively during larval, pupal, and adult life stages compared to control temperatures (23 °C). We found that exposure to elevated pupal and adult temperature decreased the number of egg clusters produced, but exposure limited to a single stage did not significantly impact reproductive output. Furthermore, elevated temperature during the pupal stage led to a faster transition to the adult stage and elevated larval temperature altered synchrony of adult eclosion, either by itself or combined with pupal temperature exposure. These results suggest that exposure to elevated temperature during development alters reproduction in corn borers in multiple ways, including through carry-over and additive effects. Additive effects of temperature across life stages are thought to be less common than stage-specific or carry-over effects, but our results suggest thermal environments experienced at all life stages need to be considered when predicting reproductive responses of insects to heatwaves.

Variation in Thermal Sensitivity of Diapause Development among Individuals and over Time Predicts Life History Timing in a Univoltine Insect

AbstractPhysiological time is important for understanding the development and seasonal timing of ectothermic animals but has largely been applied to developmental processes that occur during spring and summer, such as morphogenesis. There is a substantial knowledge gap in the relationship between temperature and development during winter, a season that is increasingly impacted by climate change. Most temperate insects overwinter in diapause, a developmental process with little obvious morphological change. We used principles from the physiological time literature to measure and model the thermal sensitivity of diapause development rate in the apple maggot fly Rhagoletis pomonella, a univoltine fly whose diapause duration varies substantially within and among populations. We show that diapause duration can be predicted by modeling a relationship between temperature and development rate that is shifted toward lower temperatures compared with typical models of morphogenic, nondiapause development. However, incorporating interindividual variation and ontogenetic variation in the temperature-to-development rate relationship was critical for accurately predicting fly emergence, as diapause development proceeded more quickly at high temperatures later in diapause. We conclude that the conceptual framework may be flexibly applied to other insects and discuss possible mechanisms of diapause timers and implications for phenology with warming winters.

Environmental and geographical factors influence the occurrence and abundance of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, in Hawai'i

Hawaiian honeycreepers, a group of endemic Hawaiian forest birds, are being threatened by avian malaria, a non-native disease that is driving honeycreepers populations to extinction. Avian malaria is caused by the parasite Plasmodium relictum, which is transmitted by the invasive mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Environmental and geographical factors play an important role in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics through their influence on the distribution and abundance of mosquitoes. We assessed the effects of environmental (temperature, precipitation), geographic (site, elevation, distance to anthropogenic features), and trap type (CDC light trap, CDC gravid trap) factors on mosquito occurrence and abundance. Occurrence was analyzed using classification and regression tree models (CART) and generalized linear models (GLM); abundance (count data) was analyzed using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Models predicted highest mosquito occurrence at mid-elevation sites and between July and November. Occurrence increased with temperature and precipitation up to 580 mm. For abundance, the best model was a zero-inflated negative-binomial model that indicated higher abundance of mosquitoes at mid-elevation sites and peak abundance between August and October. Estimation of occurrence and abundance as well as understanding the factors that influence them are key for mosquito control, which may reduce the risk of forest bird extinction.

Temperature Sensitivity of Fitness Components across Life Cycles Drives Insect Responses to Climate Change

AbstractThermal performance curves (TPCs) are increasingly used as a convenient approach to predict climate change impacts on ectotherms that accounts for organismal thermal sensitivity; however, directly applying TPCs to temperature data to estimate fitness has yielded contrasting predictions depending on assumptions regarding climate variability. We compare direct application of TPCs to an approach integrating TPCs for different fitness components (e.g., per capita birth rate, adult life span) across ectotherm life cycles into a population dynamic model, which we independently validated with census data and applied to hemipteran insect populations across latitude. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce insect fitness more at higher latitudes due to its effects on survival but will reduce net reproductive rate more at lower latitudes due to its effects on fecundity. Directly applying TPCs underestimated climate change impacts on fitness relative to incorporating the TPCs into the population model due to simplifying survival dynamics across the life cycle. The population model predicted that climate change will reduce mean insect density and increase population variability at higher latitudes via reduced survival, despite faster development and a longer activity period. Our study highlights the importance of considering how multiple fitness components respond to climate variability across the life cycle to better understand and anticipate the ecological consequence of climate change.

Host-Parasitoid Phenology, Distribution, and Biological Control under Climate Change

Climate change raises a serious threat to global entomofauna-the foundation of many ecosystems-by threatening species preservation and the ecosystem services they provide. Already, changes in climate-warming-are causing (i) sharp phenological mismatches among host-parasitoid systems by reducing the window of host susceptibility, leading to early emergence of either the host or its associated parasitoid and affecting mismatched species' fitness and abundance; (ii) shifting arthropods' expansion range towards higher altitudes, and therefore migratory pest infestations are more likely; and (iii) reducing biological control effectiveness by natural enemies, leading to potential pest outbreaks. Here, we provided an overview of the warming consequences on biodiversity and functionality of agroecosystems, highlighting the vital role that phenology plays in ecology. Also, we discussed how phenological mismatches would affect biological control efficacy, since an accurate description of stage differentiation (metamorphosis) of a pest and its associated natural enemy is crucial in order to know the exact time of the host susceptibility/suitability or stage when the parasitoids are able to optimize their parasitization or performance. Campaigns regarding landscape structure/heterogeneity, reduction of pesticides, and modelling approaches are urgently needed in order to safeguard populations of natural enemies in a future warmer world.

Recent advances in insect thermoregulation

Ambient temperature (Ta) is a critical abiotic factor for insects that cannot maintain a constant body temperature (Tb). Interestingly, Ta varies during the day, between seasons and habitats; insects must constantly cope with these variations to avoid reaching the deleterious effects of thermal stress. To minimize these risks, insects have evolved a set of physiological and behavioral thermoregulatory processes as well as molecular responses that allow them to survive and perform under various thermal conditions. These strategies range from actively seeking an adequate environment, to cooling down through the evaporation of body fluids and synthesizing heat shock proteins to prevent damage at the cellular level after heat exposure. In contrast, endothermy may allow an insect to fight parasitic infections, fly within a large range of Ta and facilitate nest defense. Since May (1979), Casey (1988) and Heinrich (1993) reviewed the literature on insect thermoregulation, hundreds of scientific articles have been published on the subject and new insights in several insect groups have emerged. In particular, technical advancements have provided a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying thermoregulatory processes. This present Review aims to provide an overview of these findings with a focus on various insect groups, including blood-feeding arthropods, as well as to explore the impact of thermoregulation and heat exposure on insect immunity and pathogen development. Finally, it provides insights into current knowledge gaps in the field and discusses insect thermoregulation in the context of climate change.

Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology

Studies of long-term trends in phenology often rely on climatic averages or accumulated heat, overlooking climate variability. Here we test the hypothesis that unusual weather conditions are critical in driving adult insect phenology. First, we generate phenological estimates for Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) across the Eastern USA, and over a 70 year period, using natural history collections data. Next, we assemble a set of predictors, including the number of unusually warm and cold days prior to, and during, the adult flight period. We then use phylogenetically informed linear mixed effects models to evaluate effects of unusual weather events, climate context, species traits, and their interactions on flight onset, offset and duration. We find increasing numbers of both warm and cold days were strong effects, dramatically increasing flight duration. This strong effect on duration is likely driven by differential onset and termination dynamics. For flight onset, impact of unusual climate conditions is dependent on climatic context, but for flight cessation, more unusually cold days always lead to later termination particularly for multivoltine species. These results show that understanding phenological responses under global change must account for unusual weather events, especially given they are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.

One genome, multiple phenotypes: decoding the evolution and mechanisms of environmentally induced developmental plasticity in insects

Plasticity in developmental processes gives rise to remarkable environmentally induced phenotypes. Some of the most striking and well-studied examples of developmental plasticity are seen in insects. For example, beetle horn size responds to nutritional state, butterfly eyespots are enlarged in response to temperature and humidity, and environmental cues also give rise to the queen and worker castes of eusocial insects. These phenotypes arise from essentially identical genomes in response to an environmental cue during development. Developmental plasticity is taxonomically widespread, affects individual fitness, and may act as a rapid-response mechanism allowing individuals to adapt to changing environments. Despite the importance and prevalence of developmental plasticity, there remains scant mechanistic understanding of how it works or evolves. In this review, we use key examples to discuss what is known about developmental plasticity in insects and identify fundamental gaps in the current knowledge. We highlight the importance of working towards a fully integrated understanding of developmental plasticity in a diverse range of species. Furthermore, we advocate for the use of comparative studies in an evo-devo framework to address how developmental plasticity works and how it evolves.

Modeling Thermal Developmental Trajectories and Thermal Requirements of the Ladybird Stethorus gilvifrons

The development rate of the predatory ladybird, Stethorus gilvifrons (Mulsant), fed on Tetranychus urticae Koch, was determined at 15, 20, 25, 27, 30, 34, and 38 °C. The total development time from egg to adult emergence for females was estimated to be 61.4, 31.6, 14.4, 13.3, 12.5, and 11.7 days, respectively. The development time decreased with increasing temperature from 15 to 34 °C, but all eggs failed to hatch at 38 °C. The lower temperature threshold (T0) for the entire development period and the thermal constant (K) for female S. gilvifrons were estimated to be 11.64 °C and 194.50 degree-days (DD) using the common linear model, and 11.96 °C and 187.87 DD using the Ikemoto and Takai model, respectively. Data were fitted to 20 non-linear development rate models and the thermal thresholds (Tmin and Tmax) and optimal temperature (Topt) were estimated. Among non-linear models, the Briere-2 and Ikemoto and Takai linear model provided adequate descriptions of the temperature-dependent development of S. gilvifrons. The upper-temperature threshold was estimated to be about 44 °C using the Logan-10 non-linear model. The estimated thermal development characteristics can be used to predict the occurrence and the population dynamics, as well as to improve the mass rearing and release, of S. gilvifrons for the biological control of T. urticae.