Reducing the global environmental impacts of rapid infrastructure expansion

Planned expansion of transportation infrastructure in Brazil has implications for the pattern of agricultural production and carbon emissions

High transportation costs have been a barrier to the expansion of agriculture in the interior of Brazil. To reduce transportation costs, Brazil launched the National Logistics Plan, aiming to expand its railway network by up to 91 % by 2035. Such a large-scale infrastructure investment raises concerns about its economic and environmental consequences. By combining geospatial estimation of transportation cost with a grid-resolving, multi-scale economic model that bridges fine-scale crop production with its trade and demand from national and global perspectives, we explore impacts of transportation infrastructure expansion on agricultural production, land use changes, and carbon emissions both locally and nationally in Brazil. We find that globally, the impacts on output and land use changes are small. However, within Brazil, the plan's primary impacts are impressive. PNL2035 results in the reduction of transportation costs by 8-23 % across states (depending on expansion's extent) in the interior Cerrado biome. This results in cropland expansion and increases in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado region. However, the increase in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado is offset by spillover effects elsewhere in Brazil, as crop production shifts away from the Southeast-South regions and accompanying change in the mix of transportation mode for farm products from roadway to more emission-efficient railway. Furthermore, we argue that the transportation infrastructure's impact on the enhanced mobility of labor and other agricultural inputs would further accentuate the regional shift in agricultural production and contribute to carbon emission mitigation. Upon its completion, PNL2035 is expected to result in the reduction of net national emissions by 1.8-30.7 million metric ton of CO2-equivalent, depending on the impacts on labor and purchased input mobility. We conclude that the omission of spillover effects due to infrastructure expansion can lead to misleading assessments of transport policies.

Light at the end of the tunnel: Innovative opportunities for saving tropical biodiversity

The expansion of roads into wilderness areas and biodiversity hotspots in the Global South seems inevitable and is predicted to bring about significant biodiversity loss. Even so, existing widespread strategies aiming to mitigate the direct and indirect impacts of roads on the environment have been of limited effectiveness. These tactics, including construction of fencing, wildlife crossings on paved roads, and establishment of protected areas along the roads, are unlikely to be sufficient for protecting diverse species assemblages from roadkill, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic activity in tropics. This indicates the need for integration of more ambitious approaches into the conservation toolkit, such as the constructing tunnels, covered ways, and elevated roads. Although these tools could significantly support conservation efforts to save tropical biodiversity, to date, they are rarely considered. Here, we discuss factors which determine the need for application of these approaches in the Global South. We highlight the often-overlooked long-term benefits associated with the application of the proposed tools. We also discuss the potential challenges and risks, and the ways to minimise them. Hopefully this article will encourage practitioners to integrate these strategies into conservation toolkits and allow policy-makers and investors to make informed decisions on sustainable road infrastructure development in the Global South.

Ghost roads and the destruction of Asia-Pacific tropical forests

Roads are expanding at the fastest pace in human history. This is the case especially in biodiversity-rich tropical nations, where roads can result in forest loss and fragmentation, wildfires, illicit land invasions and negative societal effects1-5. Many roads are being constructed illegally or informally and do not appear on any existing road map6-10; the toll of such 'ghost roads' on ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use around 7,000 h of effort by trained volunteers to map ghost roads across the tropical Asia-Pacific region, sampling 1.42 million plots, each 1 km2 in area. Our intensive sampling revealed a total of 1.37 million km of roads in our plots-from 3.0 to 6.6 times more roads than were found in leading datasets of roads globally. Across our study area, road building almost always preceded local forest loss, and road density was by far the strongest correlate11 of deforestation out of 38 potential biophysical and socioeconomic covariates. The relationship between road density and forest loss was nonlinear, with deforestation peaking soon after roads penetrate a landscape and then declining as roads multiply and remaining accessible forests largely disappear. Notably, after controlling for lower road density inside protected areas, we found that protected areas had only modest additional effects on preventing forest loss, implying that their most vital conservation function is limiting roads and road-related environmental disruption. Collectively, our findings suggest that burgeoning, poorly studied ghost roads are among the gravest of all direct threats to tropical forests.

Achieving biodiversity net gain by addressing governance gaps underpinning ecological compensation policies

Biodiversity compensation policies have emerged around the world to address the ecological harms of infrastructure expansion, but historically compliance is weak. The Westminster government is introducing a requirement that new infrastructure developments in England demonstrate they achieve a biodiversity net gain (BNG). We sought to determine the magnitude of the effects of governance gaps and regulator capacity constraints on the policy's potential biodiversity impacts. We collated BNG information from all new major developments across six early-adopter councils from 2020 to 2022. We quantified the proportion of the biodiversity outcomes promised under BNG at risk of noncompliance, explored the variation in strategies used to meet developers' biodiversity liabilities, and quantified the occurrence of simple errors in the biodiversity metric calculations. For large developments and energy infrastructure, biodiversity liabilities frequently met within the projects' development footprint. For small developments, the purchase of offsets was most common. We estimated that 27% of all biodiversity units fell into governance gaps that exposed them to a high risk of noncompliance because they were associated with better-condition habitats delivered on-site that were unlikely to be monitored or enforced. More robust governance mechanisms (e.g., practical mechanisms for monitoring and enforcement) would help ensure the delivery of this biodiversity on-site. Alternatively, more biodiversity gains could be delivered through off-site biodiversity offsetting. For the latter case, we estimated that the demand for offsets could rise by a factor of 4; this would substantially increase the financial contributions from developers for conservation activities on private land. Twenty-one percent of development applications contained a simple recurring error in their BNG calculations. One-half of these applications were approved by councils, which may indicate under-resourcing in council development assessments. Our findings demonstrate that resourcing and governance shortfalls risk undermining the policy's effectiveness.

Wildlife mortality risk posed by high and low traffic roads

Wildlife mortality due to collisions with vehicles (roadkill) is one of the predominant negative effects exerted by roads on many wildlife species. Reducing roadkill is therefore a major component of wildlife conservation. Roadkill is affected by various factors, including road attributes and traffic volume. It is theorized that the effect of traffic volume on roadkill probability should be unimodal. However, empirical evidence for this theory is lacking. Using a large-scale roadkill database of 18 wildlife species in Israel, encompassing 2846 km of roads over 10 years, we explored the effects of traffic volume and road attributes (e.g., road lighting, verge vegetation) on roadkill probability with a multivariate generalized linear mixed model. A unimodal effect of traffic volume was identified for the striped hyena (Hyaena hyaena), whereas 5 species demonstrated a novel quadratic U-shaped effect (e.g., golden jackal [Canis aureus]). Four species showed a negative linear effect (e.g., wild boar [Sus scrofa]). We also identified varying effects of road attributes on roadkill. For instance, road lighting and roadside trees decreased roadkill for several species, whereas bus stops and concrete guardrails led to increased roadkill. The theorized unimodal effect of traffic volume may only apply to large, agile species, and the U-shaped effect could be related to intraspecies variability in traffic avoidance behavior. In general, we found that both high-traffic and low-traffic roads can pose a high mortality risk for wildlife. It is therefore important to monitor roadkill on low-traffic roads and adapt road attributes to mitigate roadkill. Road design for effective roadkill mitigation includes reducing the use of concrete guardrails and median barriers where possible and avoiding dense bushes in verge landscaping. These measures are complemented by employing wildlife detection systems, driver warnings, and seasonal speed reduction measures on low-traffic roads identified as roadkill hotspots.

Mapping roadless areas in regions with contrasting human footprint

In an increasingly human- and road-dominated world, the preservation of functional ecosystems has become highly relevant. While the negative ecological impacts of roads on ecosystems are numerous and well documented, roadless areas have been proposed as proxy for functional ecosystems. However, their potential remains underexplored, partly due to the incomplete mapping of roads. We assessed the accuracy of roadless areas identification using freely available road-data in two regions with contrasting levels of anthropogenic influence: boreal Canada and temperate Central Europe (Poland, Slovakia, Czechia, and Hungary). Within randomly selected circular plots (per region and country), we visually examined the completeness of road mapping using OpenStreetMap 2020 and assessed whether human influences affect mapping quality using four variables. In boreal Canada, roads were completely mapped in 3% of the plots, compared to 40% in Central Europe. Lower Human Footprint Index and road density values were related to greater incompleteness in road mapping. Roadless areas, defined as areas at least 1 km away from any road, covered 85% of the surface in boreal Canada (mean size ± s.d. = 272 ± 12,197 km2), compared to only 0.4% in temperate Central Europe (mean size ± s.d. = 0.6 ± 3.1 km2). By visually interpreting and manually adding unmapped roads in 30 randomly selected roadless areas from each study country, we observed a similar reduction in roadless surface in both Canada and Central Europe (27% vs 28%) when all roads were included. This study highlights the urgent need for improved road mapping techniques to support research on roadless areas as conservation targets and surrogates of functional ecosystems.

Road crossings change functional diversity and trait composition of stream-dwelling macroinvertebrate assemblages

Functional diversity is regarded as a key concept in understanding the link between ecosystem function and biodiversity, and is therefore widely investigated in relation to human-induced impacts. However, information on how the intersection of roads and streams (hereafter road crossings, representing a widespread habitat transformation in relation to human development), influences the functional diversity of stream-dwelling macroinvertebrates is still missing. The general aim of our study was to provide a comprehensible picture on the impacts of road crossing structures on multiple facets of the functional diversity of stream-dwelling macroinvertebrates. In addition, we also investigated changes in trait structure. Our research showed that road crossing structures had negative impacts on functional richness and dispersion; i.e., functional diversification. However, we found no significant impact on functional divergence and evenness components. We found a decrease in functional redundancy at road crossing structures. This indicates a reduced ability of the community to recover from disturbances. Finally, we found that road crossings drive stream habitat and hydrological changes in parallel with modification of the trait composition of stream-dwelling macroinvertebrate assemblages. All these results suggest that road crossings cause notable changes in the functional diversity of stream-dwelling macroinvertebrate assemblages.

N, Subedi S, Gautam S, Ayer S, Bayne E. Gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) conservation in Bardia National Park, Nepal: Assessing population structure and habitat characteristics along the river channel amidst infrastructure development

Nepal initiated numerous hydropower and irrigation-related infrastructure projects to enhance and promote green energy, water security, and agricultural productivity. However, these projects may pose risks to natural habitats and the well-being of aquatic fauna, leading to significant effects on delicate ecosystems. To understand these potential impacts, it is crucial to gather reliable baseline data on the population status and habitat characteristics of species. This study specifically focuses on Gharials (Gavialis gangeticus), a critically endangered species. We recorded data on pre-determined habitat variables at stations spaced 500 m apart along the two major river streams of Bardia National Park, as well as at locations where Gharials were sighted between February and March 2023. We used binary logistic regression with a logit link function to investigate the habitat characteristics related to the occurrence of Gharials. The presence/absence of Gharials at sampling points served as the dependent variable, while 10 other predetermined variables (ecological variables and disturbance variables) served as independent variables. Our study recorded 23 Gharials, comprising 14 adults, six sub-adults, and three juveniles, with a sex ratio of 55.56 males per 100 females. Most individuals (83%) were found basking. Among the 10 habitat predictors, three variables (mid-river depth, river width, and water temperature) were significantly correlated (p < .05) with the probability of Gharial occurrence. The model shows that Gharial detection probability increases with greater mid-river depth and width and lower water temperature. This study establishes a population baseline for Gharials within the river system before the construction of large infrastructure projects, such as dams and irrigation canals. It also recommends continuous monitoring of Gharial populations after water release and/or diversion to evaluate the impact of large infrastructure projects on the population and their associated habitat characteristics. This will help enable more informed and targeted conservation efforts.

Implications of large-scale infrastructure development for biodiversity in Indonesian Borneo

Indonesia is embarking on an ambitious relocation of its capital city to Kalimantan, Borneo, bringing with it major urban and road infrastructure. Yet, despite being one of the world's most biologically diverse regions, the potential implications of this development for wildlife have yet to be fully assessed. We explored the potential impacts of the capital relocation, and road expansion and upgrades to critical habitat for medium-large mammals (>1 kg) using camera trap data from 11 forested landscapes. We applied Bayesian multi-species occupancy models to predict community and species-level responses to anthropogenic and environmental factors. We extrapolated spatial patterns of occupancy and species diversity across the forests of Kalimantan and identified "critical habitats" as the top 20^th percentile of occupancy and species richness values. We subsequently overlapped these critical habitat layers with infrastructure impact zones to estimate the area that could potentially be affected by direct or secondary impacts. At both the community and species-level, distance to primary roads had the strongest negative influence on habitat-use. Occupancy was also influenced by forest quality and multidimensional poverty conditions in adjacent villages, demonstrating the sensitivity of biodiversity to socio-ecological pressures. Less than 1 % of the critical habitat for the threatened mammal community lay within the direct impact zone (30 km radius) of the capital relocation. However, approximately 16 % was located within 200 km and could potentially be affected by uncontrolled secondary impacts such as urban sprawl and associated regional development. The often-overlooked secondary implications of upgrading existing roads could also intersect a large amount of critical habitat for lowland species. Mitigating far-reaching secondary impacts of infrastructure development should be fully incorporated into environmental impact assessments. This will provide Indonesia with an opportunity to set an example of sustainable infrastructure development in the tropics.

Spatio-temporal development of the urban heat island in a socioeconomically diverse tropical city

Urban heat islands, where temperatures are elevated relative to non-urban surrounds, are near-ubiquitous in cities globally. Yet, the magnitude and form of urban heat islands in the tropics, where heat has a large morbidity and mortality burden, is not well understood, especially for those of urban informal settlements. We used 29 years of Landsat satellite-derived surface temperature, corroborated by in situ temperature measurements, to provide a detailed spatial and temporal assessment of urban heat islands in Makassar, Indonesia, a city that is representative of rapidly growing urban settlements across the tropics. Our analysis identified surface urban heat islands of up to 9.2 °C in long-urbanised parts of the city and 6.3 °C in informal settlements, the seasonal patterns of which were driven by change in non-urban areas rather than in urban areas themselves. In recently urbanised areas, the majority of urban heat island increase occurred before land became 50% urbanised, whereas the established heat island in long-urbanised areas remained stable in response to urban expansion. Green and blue space protected some informal settlements from the worst urban heat islands observed across the city and maintenance of such space will be essential to mitigate the growing heat burden from urban expansion and anthropogenic climate change. Settlements further than 4 km from the coast and with Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) less than 0.2 had higher surface temperatures, with modelled effects of more than 5 °C. Surface temperature measurements were representative of in situ heat exposure, measured in a subset of 12 informal settlements, where mean indoor temperature had the strongest relationship with surface temperature (R² = 0.413, P = 0.001). We advocate for green space to be prioritised in urban planning, redevelopment and informal settlement upgrading programs, with consideration of the unique environmental and socioeconomic context of tropical cities.

Laying low: Rugged lowland rainforest preferred by feral cats in the Australian Wet Tropics

Invasive mesopredators are responsible for the decline of many species of native mammals worldwide. Feral cats have been causally linked to multiple extinctions of Australian mammals since European colonization. While feral cats are found throughout Australia, most research has been undertaken in arid habitats, thus there is a limited understanding of feral cat distribution, abundance, and ecology in Australian tropical rainforests. We carried out camera-trapping surveys at 108 locations across seven study sites, spanning 200 km in the Australian Wet Tropics. Single-species occupancy analysis was implemented to investigate how environmental factors influence feral cat distribution. Feral cats were detected at a rate of 5.09 photographs/100 days, 11 times higher than previously recorded in the Australian Wet Tropics. The main environmental factors influencing feral cat occupancy were a positive association with terrain ruggedness, a negative association with elevation, and a higher affinity for rainforest than eucalypt forest. These findings were consistent with other studies on feral cat ecology but differed from similar surveys in Australia. Increasingly harsh and consistently wet weather conditions at higher elevations, and improved shelter in topographically complex habitats may drive cat preference for lowland rainforest. Feral cats were positively associated with roads, supporting the theory that roads facilitate access and colonization of feral cats within more remote parts of the rainforest. Higher elevation rainforests with no roads could act as refugia for native prey species within the critical weight range. Regular monitoring of existing roads should be implemented to monitor feral cats, and new linear infrastructure should be limited to prevent encroachment into these areas. This is pertinent as climate change modeling suggests that habitats at higher elevations will become similar to lower elevations, potentially making the environment more suitable for feral cat populations.

Links in a sink: Interplay between habitat structure, ecological constraints and interactions with humans can influence connectivity conservation for tigers in forest corridors

Global land-use changes and rapid infrastructure development necessitate identification and conservation of wildlife corridors. Connectivity through corridors is shaped by species' structural, ecological and behavioral constraints. In multi-use landscapes, species' interactions with humans could additionally influence connectivity. Using the tiger Panthera tigris as a case study, we make simultaneous assessments of potential connectivity, habitat use and examine their links with the species' negative interactions with humans in central India. We assessed potential connectivity across 10, 000 sq. km of the Kanha-Pench forest corridor using graph-theoretic methods. Combining indirect sign surveys and occupancy models, we examined habitat use, and evaluated its congruence with potential connectivity. Next, we estimated spatial probabilities of livestock depredation through application of multi-state occupancy models to interview-based survey data from local residents. Habitat use by tigers was negatively associated with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbance. Livestock depredation was positively associated with size of settlements and areas most frequented by tigers, and negatively with anthropogenic disturbance within forests. We found high congruence between connectivity and habitat use (r = 0.80); but the strong correlation did not hold in areas with very high levels of livestock depredation levels. Our results indicate that when areas of high use by tigers are constrained by limited connectivity, there are higher chances of human-tiger conflict, and these areas may be ecological traps for the species. Interactions with humans can be crucial in mediating connectivity for large carnivores in shared habitats. Our findings present an opportunity to consolidate areas where carnivore conservation and local livelihood needs can be balanced. Our framework also provides a foundation for spatial prioritization that incorporates a plurality of dimensions, with utility for connectivity conservation of other wide-ranging carnivores.

Severe conservation risks of roads on apex predators

The global expansion of road networks threatens apex predator conservation and ecosystem functioning. This occurs through wildlife-vehicle collisions, habitat loss and fragmentation, reduced genetic connectivity and increased poaching. We reviewed road impacts on 36 apex predator species and assessed their risk from current roads based on road exposure and species vulnerability. Our findings reveal all apex predators are exposed to road impacts. Eight of the ten species with the highest risk occur in Asia, although other high-risk species are present in the Americas, Africa and Europe. The sloth bear suffers the highest risk of all apex predators, followed by the tiger and dhole. Based on species risk from roads, we propose a widely applicable method to assess the potential impact of future roads on apex predators. We applied this method to proposed road developments in three areas: the Brazilian Amazon, Africa, and Nepal, to locate high-impact road segments. Roughly 500 protected areas will be intersected by these roads, threatening core apex predator habitats. We advocate the need for rigorous road development planning to apply effective mitigation measures as an urgent priority and to avoid construction in wilderness areas and predator strongholds.

The effect of financial crises on deforestation: a global and regional panel data analysis

Managing our transition to sustainability requires a solid understanding of how conditions of financial crisis affect our natural environment. Yet, there has been little focus on the nature of the relationship between financial crises and environmental sustainability, especially in relation to forests and deforestation. This study addressed this gap by providing novel evidence on the impact of financial crises on deforestation. A panel data approach is used looking at Global Forest Watch deforestation data from > 150 countries in > 100 crises in the twenty-first century. This includes an analysis of crises effects on principle drivers of deforestation; timber and agricultural commodities-palm oil, soybean, coffee, cattle, and cocoa. At a global level, financial crises are associated with a reduction in deforestation rates (- 36 p.p) and deforestation drivers; roundwood (- 6.7 p.p.), cattle (- 2.3 p.p.) and cocoa production (- 8.3 p.p.). Regionally, deforestation rates in Asia, Africa, and Europe decreased by - 83, - 43, and 22 p.p, respectively. Drivers behind these effects may be different, from palm oil (- 1.3 p.p.) and cocoa (- 10.5 p.p.) reductions in Africa, to a combination of timber (- 9.5 p.p) and palm oil in Asia. Moreover, financial crises have a larger effect on deforestation in low-income, than upper middle- and high-income countries (- 51 vs - 39 and - 18 p.p. respectively). Using another main dataset on yearly forest cover-the ESA-Climate Change Initiative-a picture arises showing financial crises leading to small global decreases in forest cover (- 0.1 p.p.) with a small agricultural cover increase (0.1 p.p). Our findings point to financial crises as important moments for global deforestation dynamics. Yet, to consolidate benefits on decreasing deforestation, governments need to enhance their sustainable forest management during crisis periods rather than let it slip down national agendas. Finally, to achieve the SDGs related to forests, better global forest cover datasets are needed, with better forest loss/gain data, disturbance history, and understanding of mosaicked landscape dynamics within a satellite pixel.

The Human Impact on All Soil-Forming Factors during the Anthropocene

Soil-the thin outer skin of the Earth's land-is a critical and fragile natural resource. Soil is the basis for almost all global agriculture and the medium in which most terrestrial biological activity occurs. Here, we reconsider the five forming factors of soil originally suggested more than a century ago (parent material, time, climate, topography, and organisms) and updated over the years to add human activity as the sixth forming factor. We demonstrate how present anthropogenic activity has become the leading component influencing each one of the original forming factors. We thus propose that, starting from the Anthropocene, human activity should no longer be considered as a separate forming factor but rather a main driving force of each of the five original ones. We suggest that the importance of soil and the strong direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic factors on soil-forming factors should be considered together to ensure sustainability of this critical resource.

Transformational changes for achieving the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework ecological connectivity goals

The first draft of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) includes an unprecedented call for states that have ratified the treaty (Parties) to implement measures to maintain and enhance ecological connectivity as urgent actions to abate further biodiversity loss and ecosystem decline. Considering the challenges that lie ahead for Parties to the CBD, we highlight the ways in which effective and equitable connectivity conservation can be achieved through four transformative changes, including: (1) mainstreaming connectivity retention and restoration within biodiversity conservation sector and influencing sectors (e.g., transportation, energy, agriculture, forestry); (2) mainstreaming financial resources and incentives to support effective implementation; (3) fostering collaboration with a focus on cross-sector collective action; and (4) investing in diverse forms of knowledge (co-)production and management in support of adaptive governance. We detail 15 key actions that can be used to support the implementation of these transformative changes. While ambitious, the transformative changes and associated key actions recommended in this perspective will need to be put in place with unprecedented urgency, coherency, and coordination if Parties to the CBD truly aspire to achieve the goals and targets of the forthcoming Post-2020 GBF in this new decade of biodiversity.

Risks to global biodiversity and Indigenous lands from China's overseas development finance

China has become one of the world's largest lenders in overseas development finance. Development projects, such as roads, railways and power plants, often drive biodiversity loss and infringe on Indigenous lands, yet the risks implicit in China's overseas development finance are poorly understood. Here we examine the extent to which projects financed by China's policy banks between 2008 and 2019 occur within and adjacent to areas where large-scale investment can present considerable risks to biodiversity and Indigenous peoples. Further, we compare these risks with those posed by similar projects financed by the World Bank, previously the world's largest source of development finance. We found that 63% of China-financed projects overlap with critical habitats, protected areas or Indigenous lands, with up to 24% of the world's threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians potentially impacted by the projects. Hotspots of the risks are primarily distributed in northern sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and parts of South America. Overall, China's development projects pose greater risks than those of the World Bank, particularly within the energy sector. These results provide an important global outlook of socio-ecological risks that can guide strategies for greening China's development finance around the world.

Defining Pathways towards African Ecological Futures

Africa has experienced unprecedented growth across a range of development indices for decades. However, this growth is often at the expense of Africa’s biodiversity and ecosystems, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of people depending on the goods and services provided by nature, with broader consequences for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Encouragingly, Africa can still take a more sustainable path. Here, we synthesize the key learnings from the African Ecological Futures project. We report results from a participatory scenario planning process around four collectively-owned scenarios and narratives for the evolution of Africa’s ecological resource base over the next 50 years. These scenarios provided a lens to review pressures on the natural environment, through the drivers, pressures, state, impacts, and responses (DPSIR) framework. Based on the outcomes from each of these steps, we discuss opportunities to reorient Africa’s development trajectories towards a sustainable path. These opportunities fall under the broad categories of “effective natural resource governance”, “strategic planning capabilities”, “investment safeguards and frameworks”, and “new partnership models”. Underpinning all these opportunities are “data, management information, and decision support frameworks”. This work can help inform collaborative action by a broad set of actors with an interest in ensuring a sustainable ecological future for Africa.

Built-up areas within and around protected areas: Global patterns and 40-year trends

Protected areas (PAs) are a key strategy in global efforts to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services that are critical for human well-being. Most PAs have some built-up structures within their boundaries or in surrounding areas, ranging from individual buildings to villages, towns and cities. These structures, and the associated human activities, can exert direct and indirect pressures on PAs. Here we present the first global analysis of current patterns and observed long-term trends in built-up areas within terrestrial PAs and their immediate surroundings. We calculate for each PA larger than 5 km² and for its 10-km unprotected buffer zone the percentage of land area covered by built-up areas in 1975, 1990, 2000 and 2014. We find that globally built-up areas cover only 0.12% of PA extent and a much higher 2.71% of the unprotected buffers as of 2014, compared to 0.6% of all land (protected or unprotected). Built-up extent in and around PAs is highest in Europe and Asia, and lowest in Africa and Oceania. Built-up area percentage is higher in coastal and small PAs, and lower in older PAs and in PAs with stricter management categories. From 1975 to 2014, the increase in built-up area was 23 times larger in the 10-km unprotected buffers than within PAs. Our findings show that the development of built-up structures remains limited within the boundaries of PAs but highlight the need to carefully manage the considerable pressure that PAs face from their immediate surroundings.

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We globally assess the extent of built-up areas (buildings) in protected areas (PAs) and their 10-km unprotected buffers.

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Buildings cover 0.12% of PAs and 2.71% of their buffers globally.

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Small, coastal, less strictly managed or recent PAs have much higher built-up pressure.

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From 1975 to 2014, built-up areas increased 23 times more in PA buffers than within PAs.

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PAs are effective in limiting building construction, but face considerable pressure from their surroundings.

Drivers of deforestation and degradation for 28 tropical conservation landscapes

Analysing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in conservation landscapes can provide crucial information for conservation management. While rates of forest loss can be measured through remote sensing, on the ground information is needed to confirm the commodities and actors behind deforestation. We administered a questionnaire to Wildlife Conservation Society's landscape managers to assess the deforestation drivers in 28 tropical conservation landscapes. Commercial and subsistence agriculture were the main drivers of deforestation, followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development. Rice, rubber, cassava and maize were the crops most frequently cited as drivers of deforestation in these emblematic conservation landscapes. Landscape managers expected deforestation trends to continue at similar or greater magnitude in the future, calling for urgent measures to mitigate these trends.

Response of vertebrate scavengers to power line and road rights-of-way and its implications for bird fatality estimates

Linear infrastructures, such as power lines and roads, are an important source of bird mortality. However, little is known on the potential effect of these infrastructures on local scavenger guilds, their foraging activity and the resulting bird carcass removal patterns. This is an important source of bias in studies aiming to quantify bird fatalities due to linear infrastructures. We used camera-traps to record scavenger identity and persistence patterns of bird carcasses placed close to linear infrastructure and nearby controls in two Mediterranean agricultural regions. We found that linear infrastructure influence on scavenger identity varied depending on the region. Contrary to expectations, linear infrastructure presence had either none or a positive effect on carcass persistence, meaning that carcasses placed within power line or road rights-of-way were not removed faster than the ones placed in controls. We conclude that linear infrastructure effect on vertebrate scavenging patterns is likely to be region-specific, and that reliable correction factors for carcass removal-bias in bird fatality estimates require site-specific experiments to characterize local scavenging processes.

Road development in Asia: Assessing the range-wide risks to tigers

Roads are proliferating worldwide at an unprecedented rate, with potentially severe impacts on wildlife. We calculated the extent and potential impacts of road networks across the 1,160,000-km2, 13-country range of the globally endangered tiger (Panthera tigris)-a conservation umbrella species. We found that roads were pervasive, totaling 134,000 km across tiger conservation landscapes (TCLs), even in tiger priority sites and protected areas. Approximately 43% of the area where tiger breeding occurs and 57% of the area in TCLs fell within the road-effect zone. Consequently, current road networks may be decreasing tiger and prey abundances by more than 20%. Nearly 24,000 km of new roads will be built in TCLs by 2050, stimulated through major investment projects such as China's Belt and Road Initiative. Given that roads will be a pervasive challenge to tiger recovery in the future, we urge decision-makers to make sustainable road development a top priority.

Conservation planning for Africa's Albertine Rift: conserving a biodiverse region in the face of multiple threats

The Albertine Rift is one of Africa's most biodiverse regions, but is threatened by habitat loss as a result of agricultural expansion and human development. Previous studies estimated that 30% of the region has been lost to agricultural conversion and we estimate here that 33% is allocated for mining concessions. For conservation planning, we used niche models for species endemic to the Albertine Rift and those that are globally threatened. We assessed where to conserve these species using three scenarios: (1) a baseline assuming equal conservation costs across all grid cells in the study area, (2) a scenario locking in existing protected areas (i.e. always selecting them by default) and assessing which unprotected areas require conservation, and (3) a scenario considering mining planned across the region. Marxan analyses produced similar results for the three scenarios, highlighting the importance of existing protected areas and the value of several community-managed or provincial protected areas in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. The current protected area network covers 134,246 km2 and an additional 64,586 km2 would be required to ensure the conservation of all threatened and endemic species outside the parks and wildlife reserves. However, if trying to avoid mining concessions this increases to 145,704 km2, an area larger than the existing protected areas. Some mining concessions harbour species with a restricted range and would thus need to be protected to ensure the persistence of threatened and endemic fauna and flora. These mining concessions should be challenged by the conservation community.

Integrating Sustainable Development Goals into the Belt and Road Initiative: Would It Be a New Model for Green and Sustainable Investment?

Given the challenges presented by climate change and related environmental pressure, a sustainable, investment-led development model, i.e., aligning investment with social and sustainability objectives, is needed to ensure long-term prosperity and generate sustainable growth. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was released to guide nations towards green and sustainable development and address governance deficits. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched by China, a development strategy involving investment in infrastructure development, intends to enhance regional connectivity, integration, and stimulate economic growth. These two agendas share the notion of ‘sustainable development’ and are growing increasingly relevant. Although various studies have analysed the sustainability of the BRI, the implementation of SDGs and the similarities and complementarities between the two initiatives, few of them touched on the possibility of the BRI to be a green and sustainable investment-led model by aligning the SDGs. This paper, thus, aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on sustainable development and infrastructure investment by exploring the possibilities and challenges of the BRI to be a sustainable, investment-led development model. By comparing these two agendas and seeking the linkages between them, this article recognises the potential of the BRI to play such a role while there are issues and risks of BRI that hinder the achievement of infrastructure development and sustainable investment. The paper recommends that, to exert the synergies from aligning the BRI and SDGs to seize substantial development benefits, it is necessary to enhance the sustainability of BRI projects, provide effective cooperation and communication with stakeholders, and adapt BRI to the national development policies of each partner country. Joint efforts taken by both state and non-state actors are indispensable.

Environmental Impacts of Infrastructure Development under the Belt and Road Initiative

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the largest infrastructure scheme in our lifetime, bringing unprecedented geopolitical and economic shifts far larger than previous rising powers. Concerns about its environmental impacts are legitimate and threaten to thwart China’s ambitions, especially since there is little precedent for analysing and planning for environmental impacts of massive infrastructure development at the scale of BRI. In this paper, we review infrastructure development under BRI to characterise the nature and types of environmental impacts and demonstrate how social, economic and political factors can shape these impacts. We first address the ambiguity around how BRI is defined. Then we describe our interdisciplinary framework for considering the nature of its environmental impacts, showing how impacts interact and aggregate across multiple spatiotemporal scales creating cumulative impacts. We also propose a typology of BRI infrastructure, and describe how economic and socio-political drivers influence BRI infrastructure and the nature of its environmental impacts. Increasingly, environmental policies associated with BRI are being designed and implemented, although there are concerns about how these will translate effectively into practice. Planning and addressing environmental issues associated with the BRI is immensely complex and multi-scaled. Understanding BRI and its environment impacts is the first step for China and countries along the routes to ensure the assumed positive socio-economic impacts associated with BRI are sustainable.

Intact but empty forests? Patterns of hunting-induced mammal defaunation in the tropics

Tropical forests are increasingly degraded by industrial logging, urbanization, agriculture, and infrastructure, with only 20% of the remaining area considered intact. However, this figure does not include other, more cryptic but pervasive forms of degradation, such as overhunting. Here, we quantified and mapped the spatial patterns of mammal defaunation in the tropics using a database of 3,281 mammal abundance declines from local hunting studies. We simultaneously accounted for population abundance declines and the probability of local extirpation of a population as a function of several predictors related to human accessibility to remote areas and species' vulnerability to hunting. We estimated an average abundance decline of 13% across all tropical mammal species, with medium-sized species being reduced by >27% and large mammals by >40%. Mammal populations are predicted to be partially defaunated (i.e., declines of 10%-100%) in ca. 50% of the pantropical forest area (14 million km2), with large declines (>70%) in West Africa. According to our projections, 52% of the intact forests (IFs) and 62% of the wilderness areas (WAs) are partially devoid of large mammals, and hunting may affect mammal populations in 20% of protected areas (PAs) in the tropics, particularly in West and Central Africa and Southeast Asia. The pervasive effects of overhunting on tropical mammal populations may have profound ramifications for ecosystem functioning and the livelihoods of wild-meat-dependent communities, and underscore that forest coverage alone is not necessarily indicative of ecosystem intactness. We call for a systematic consideration of hunting effects in (large-scale) biodiversity assessments for more representative estimates of human-induced biodiversity loss.

Intact but empty forests? Patterns of hunting-induced mammal defaunation in the tropics

Tropical forests are increasingly degraded by industrial logging, urbanization, agriculture, and infrastructure, with only 20% of the remaining area considered intact. However, this figure does not include other, more cryptic but pervasive forms of degradation, such as overhunting. Here, we quantified and mapped the spatial patterns of mammal defaunation in the tropics using a database of 3,281 mammal abundance declines from local hunting studies. We simultaneously accounted for population abundance declines and the probability of local extirpation of a population as a function of several predictors related to human accessibility to remote areas and species' vulnerability to hunting. We estimated an average abundance decline of 13% across all tropical mammal species, with medium-sized species being reduced by >27% and large mammals by >40%. Mammal populations are predicted to be partially defaunated (i.e., declines of 10%-100%) in ca. 50% of the pantropical forest area (14 million km2), with large declines (>70%) in West Africa. According to our projections, 52% of the intact forests (IFs) and 62% of the wilderness areas (WAs) are partially devoid of large mammals, and hunting may affect mammal populations in 20% of protected areas (PAs) in the tropics, particularly in West and Central Africa and Southeast Asia. The pervasive effects of overhunting on tropical mammal populations may have profound ramifications for ecosystem functioning and the livelihoods of wild-meat-dependent communities, and underscore that forest coverage alone is not necessarily indicative of ecosystem intactness. We call for a systematic consideration of hunting effects in (large-scale) biodiversity assessments for more representative estimates of human-induced biodiversity loss.

Mitigating Tropical Forest Fragmentation with Natural and Semi-Artificial Canopy Bridges

Fragmentation caused by linear infrastructures is a threat to forest-dwelling wildlife globally. Loss of canopy connectivity is particularly problematic for highly arboreal species such as those of the Neotropics. We explored the use of both natural canopy bridges (NCBs) and a semi-artificial one over a natural gas pipeline right-of-way (RoW) in the Peruvian Amazon to provide more information on both a proven and a novel solution to the problem of fragmentation. We monitored seven NCBs over 14 months and found crossing rates higher than previously recorded (57.70 crossings/100 trap nights by 16 species). We also constructed a semi-artificial canopy bridge (SACB) out of a liana and found it to be used quickly (seven days after installation) and frequently (90.23 crossings/100 trap nights—nearly nightly) by five species (two procyonids, one didelphid, one primate, and one rodent). This information contributes to our knowledge of mitigation solutions for fragmentation. As linear infrastructure grows globally, more solutions must be developed and tested.

Strain by the train: Patterns of toad fatalities on a Brazilian Amazonian railroad

Transportation infrastructures are directly responsible for killing billions of animals worldwide. Although the understanding about road impacts have recently increased, the impact of railroads on wildlife has received less attention. The current knowledge concerning the impacts of railroads focuses mainly on large mammals although amphibians might be affected. Our study aims to unravel temporal and spatial patterns of Rhinella toad fatalities on a Brazilian Amazonian railroad, to comprehend how toads are killed and to estimate the magnitude of toad fatalities. Data collection was carried out on foot on an 871-km stretch of the Estrada de Ferro Carajás from 2013 to 2017. We identified different potential causes for fatalities: being run over, desiccated or with barotrauma signs. We estimated a surprisingly high carcass persistence probability of about 38 days. After correcting for the bias from carcass detection and removal, we estimated that approximately 10,000 toads are killed per year (≈ 11 fatalities/km/year). A GLM model showed that toads were more likely to be killed in the dry to wet transition. We identified critical zones of fatalities and prioritized them according to their intensity. The highly critical segments encompass >10% of all fatalities although they cover only 1.5% of the railroad. Our study is the first one to address carcass detection and persistence on railroads and to unravel patterns of fatalities of an amphibian species in a tropical climate. A better understanding of the patterns of animal fatality on railroads is of fundamental importance to manage and mitigate this impact.

Roads and livelihood activity choices in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania

Road development is occurring at an unprecedented rate in important conservation areas in tropical countries with limited understanding of how local people will adjust their livelihood activities in response. We use a discrete choice experiment to explore the effect of road development on respondents ex-ante preferences for changes in livelihood activities-crop and livestock production, hunting and trading bushmeat, and business and wage employment-under different incentives-provision of loans, livestock and crop extension services-in scenarios with reduced travel time to nearest district town in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in Tanzania. We test four hypotheses about the effects of roads with opposing implication for conservation. Hypothesis 1 predicts that increased market access will lead to intensification of crop and livestock production activities (achieved through extension services and loans), and Hypothesis 2 that market access will facilitate the development of non-farm Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) providing new livelihood opportunities (e.g. business income and wage employment)-both reducing environmental pressure. Hypotheis 3 on the other hand predicts that improved market access will lead to extensification and expansion of crop and livestock production activities, while Hypotheis 4 suggests that it will encourage exploitation of environmental goods (here in the form of hunting and trading bushmeat and illegal grazing inside protected areas)-both increasing environmental pressure. We find increasing preferences for more cropland and more cattle as travel time to market is reduced but no preference for increased allocation of household members to hunting and trading bushmeat supporting hypothesis 3 while contradicting hypothesis 4. However, second-order effects might support hypothesis 4 as we find aversion towards decreasing effort invested in hunting and trading bushmeat. Preferences for increased cropland and livestock may furthermore interact to increase land use change and illegal grazing inside protected areas. Crop extension services had a negative modifying effect on preferences for more cropland (supporting hypothesis 1) while livestock extension services had a positive modifying effect on preferences for more cattle (contradicting hypothesis 1). Providing loans had a negative modifying effect on preferences for increasing cropland and number of cattle. Marginal rates of substitution suggest that 950,000 TSH borrowed at a 10% interest rate will reduce preferences for more cropland and cattle by 11.8 and 38.4% respectively. Crop extension services reduce preferences for more cropland by 27% whereas livestock extension services increase preferences for more cattle by 104%. Contradicting Hypothesis 2, we found no preference for increasing the number of households members engaged in business and wage employment in response to reduced travel time. Targeted efforts to increase the educational level as well as entrepreneurship skills in the GSE could promote engagement in the labour market and development of business enterprises diverting focus from traditional activities such as farming and livestock production and hence reducing pressure on the ecosystem.

High-risk infrastructure projects pose imminent threats to forests in Indonesian Borneo

Indonesian Borneo (Kalimantan) sustains ~37 million hectares of native tropical forest. Numerous large-scale infrastructure projects aimed at promoting land-development activities are planned or ongoing in the region. However, little is known of the potential impacts of this new infrastructure on Bornean forests or biodiversity. We found that planned and ongoing road and rail-line developments will have many detrimental ecological impacts, including fragmenting large expanses of intact forest. Assuming conservatively that new road and rail projects will influence only a 1 km buffer on either side, landscape connectivity across the region will decline sharply (from 89% to 55%) if all imminently planned projects proceed. This will have particularly large impacts on wide-ranging, rare species such as rhinoceros, orangutans, and elephants. Planned developments will impact 42 protected areas, undermining Indonesian efforts to achieve key targets under the Convention on Biological Diversity. New infrastructure will accelerate expansion in intact or frontier regions of legal and illegal logging and land colonization as well as illicit mining and wildlife poaching. The net environmental, social, financial, and economic risks of several imminent projects-such as parallel border roads in West, East, and North Kalimantan, new Trans-Kalimantan road developments in Central Kalimantan and North Kalimantan, and freeways and rail lines in East Kalimantan-could markedly outstrip their overall benefits. Such projects should be reconsidered in light of rigorous cost-benefit frameworks.

High carnivore population density highlights the conservation value of industrialised sites

As the environment becomes increasingly altered by human development, the importance of understanding the ways in which wildlife interact with modified landscapes is becoming clear. Areas such as industrial sites are sometimes presumed to have little conservation value, but many of these sites have areas of less disturbed habitats around their core infrastructure, which could provide ideal conditions to support some species, such as mesocarnivores. We conducted the first assessments of the density of serval (Leptailurus serval) at the Secunda Synfuels Operations plant, South Africa, using camera trap surveys analysed within a spatially explicit capture recapture framework. We show that servals occurred at densities of 76.20-101.21 animals per 100 km², which are higher than previously recorded densities for this species, presumably due to high abundance of prey and the absence of persecution and/or competitor species. Our findings highlight the significant conservation potential of industrialised sites, and we suggest that such sites could help contribute towards meeting conservation goals.

Economic, Socio-Political and Environmental Risks of Road Development in the Tropics

It is projected that 25 million km of new paved roads will be developed globally by 2050 - enough to encircle the planet more than 600 times. Roughly 90% of new roads will be built in developing nations, frequently in tropical and subtropical regions with high biodiversity and environmental values. Many developing nations are borrowing from international lenders or negotiating access to their natural resources in order to expand their transportation infrastructure. Given the unprecedented pace and extent of these initiatives, it is vital to thoroughly assess the potential consequences of large-scale road and highway projects. In appropriate contexts and locales, new roads can promote sizeable economic and social benefits. If poorly planned or implemented, however, new roads can provoke serious cost overruns, corruption and environmental impacts, while generating sparse economic benefits and intense social and political conflict. Using examples from developing nations, we identify risks that can hinder road projects in wet and dry tropical environments. Such risks, we assert, are often inadequately considered by project proponents, evaluators and the general public, creating a systematic tendency to overestimate project benefits while understating project risks. A more precautionary approach is needed to reduce risks while maximizing benefits of new road projects in the tropics.

Conservation and the Global Infrastructure Tsunami: Disclose, Debate, Delay!

Efforts to protect nature are facing a growing crisis, one that often revolves around the burgeoning impacts of roads and other infrastructure on biodiversity and ecosystems. Potential solutions are possible but they will involve serious trade-offs and the confrontation of deep misconceptions. Here, I identify some time-critical tactics to aid scientists in informing and influencing the global infrastructure debate.