Rapid tree carbon stock recovery in managed Amazonian forests

Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model

Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on Zhejiang Province, located in the subtropical region of China, and utilizes seven inventories from the National Continuous Forest Inventory (NCFI) System spanning 30 years (1989-2019) for modeling and analysis. We categorized tree species into three groups: pine, fir, and broadleaf. We used the proportion of biomass in a sample plot as a measure of the relative abundance of each tree species group. A novel nonlinear difference equation system (NDES) model was proposed. A NDES model was established based on two consecutive survey datasets. A total of six models were established in this study. The results indicated that during the first two re-examination periods (1989-1994, 1994-1999), there was significant fluctuation in the trend of tree species abundance, with no consistent pattern of change. During the latter four re-examination periods (1999-2004, 2004-2009, 2009-2014, 2014-2019), a consistent trend was observed, whereby the abundance of the pine group and the fir group decreased while the abundance of the broad-leaved group increased. Moreover, over time, this pattern became increasingly stable. Although the abundances of the pine group and the fir group have been steadily declining, neither group is expected to become extinct. The NDES model not only facilitates short-term, medium-term, and even long-term predictions but also employs limit analysis to reveal currently obscure changing trends in tree species composition.

Forest disturbance and recovery in Peruvian Amazonia

Amazonian forests function as biomass and biodiversity reservoirs, contributing to climate change mitigation. While they continuously experience disturbance, the effect that disturbances have on biomass and biodiversity over time has not yet been assessed at a large scale. Here, we evaluate the degree of recent forest disturbance in Peruvian Amazonia and the effects that disturbance, environmental conditions and human use have on biomass and biodiversity in disturbed forests. We integrate tree-level data on aboveground biomass (AGB) and species richness from 1840 forest plots from Peru's National Forest Inventory with remotely sensed monitoring of forest change dynamics, based on disturbances detected from Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Moisture Index time series. Our results show a clear negative effect of disturbance intensity tree species richness. This effect was also observed on AGB and species richness recovery values towards undisturbed levels, as well as on the recovery of species composition towards undisturbed levels. Time since disturbance had a larger effect on AGB than on species richness. While time since disturbance has a positive effect on AGB, unexpectedly we found a small negative effect of time since disturbance on species richness. We estimate that roughly 15% of Peruvian Amazonian forests have experienced disturbance at least once since 1984, and that, following disturbance, have been increasing in AGB at a rate of 4.7 Mg ha-1  year-1 during the first 20 years. Furthermore, the positive effect of surrounding forest cover was evident for both AGB and its recovery towards undisturbed levels, as well as for species richness. There was a negative effect of forest accessibility on the recovery of species composition towards undisturbed levels. Moving forward, we recommend that forest-based climate change mitigation endeavours consider forest disturbance through the integration of forest inventory data with remote sensing methods.

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

BACKGROUND

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well.

RESULTS

Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10⁶ square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year^-1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year^-1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

Implications of tropical cyclones on damage and potential recovery and restoration of logged forests in Vietnam

Many natural forests in Southeast Asia are degraded following decades of logging. Restoration of these forests is delayed by ongoing logging and tropical cyclones, but the implications for recovery are largely uncertain. We analysed meteorological, satellite and forest inventory plot data to assess the effect of Typhoon Doksuri, a major tropical cyclone, on the forest landscapes of central Vietnam consisting of natural forests and plantations. We estimated the return period for a cyclone of this intensity to be 40 years. Plantations were almost twice as likely to suffer cyclone damage compared to natural forests. Logged natural forests (9-12 years after cessation of government-licensed logging) were surveyed before and after the storm with 2 years between measurements and remained a small biomass carbon sink (0.1 ± 0.3 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) over this period. The cyclone reduced the carbon sink of recovering natural forests by an average of 0.85 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, less than the carbon loss due to ongoing unlicensed logging. Restoration of forest landscapes in Southeast Asia requires a reduction in unlicensed logging and prevention of further conversion of degraded natural forests to plantations, particularly in landscapes prone to tropical cyclones where natural forests provide a resilient carbon sink. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Mapping the Spatial Distribution of Fern Thickets and Vine-Laden Forests in the Landscape of Bornean Logged-Over Tropical Secondary Rainforests

Forest degradation has been most frequently defined as an anthropogenic reduction in biomass compared with reference biomass in extant forests. However, so-defined “degraded forests” may widely vary in terms of recoverability. A prolonged loss of recoverability, commonly described as a loss of resilience, poses a true threat to global environments. In Bornean logged-over forests, dense thickets of ferns and vines have been observed to cause arrested secondary succession, and their area may indicate the extent of slow biomass recovery. Therefore, we aimed to discriminate the fern thickets and vine-laden forests from those logged-over forests without dense ferns and vines, as well as mapping their distributions, with the aid of Landsat-8 satellite imagery and machine learning modeling. During the process, we tested whether the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) textures of Landsat data and Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data were helpful for this classification. Our study sites were Deramakot and Tangkulap Forest Reserves—commercial production forests in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. First, we flew drones and obtained aerial images that were used as ground truth for the supervised classification. Subsequently, a machine-learning model with a gradient-boosting decision tree was iteratively tested in order to derive the best model for the classification of the vegetation. Finally, the best model was extrapolated to the entire forest reserve and used to map three classes of vegetation (fern thickets, vine-laden forests, and logged-over forests without ferns and vines) and two non-vegetation classes (bare soil and open water). The overall classification accuracy of the best model was 86.6%; however, by combining the fern and vine classes into the same category, the accuracy was improved to 91.5%. The GLCM texture variables were especially effective at separating fern/vine vegetation from the non-degraded forest, but the SAR data showed a limited effect. Our final vegetation map showed that 30.7% of the reserves were occupied by ferns or vines, which may lead to arrested succession. Considering that our study site was once certified as a well-managed forest, the area of degraded forests with a high risk of loss of resilience is expected to be much broader in other Bornean production forests.

Removing climbers more than doubles tree growth and biomass in degraded tropical forests

Huge areas of tropical forests are degraded, reducing their biodiversity, carbon, and timber value. The recovery of these degraded forests can be significantly inhibited by climbing plants such as lianas. Removal of super‐abundant climbers thus represents a restoration action with huge potential for application across the tropics. While experimental studies largely report positive impacts of climber removal on tree growth and biomass accumulation, the efficacy of climber removal varies widely, with high uncertainty as to where and how to apply the technique. Using meta‐analytic techniques, we synthesize results from 26 studies to quantify the efficacy of climber removal for promoting tree growth and biomass accumulation. We find that climber removal increases tree growth by 156% and biomass accumulation by 209% compared to untreated forest, and that efficacy remains for at least 19 years. Extrapolating from these results, climber removal could sequester an additional 32 Gigatons of CO₂ over 10 years, at low cost, across regrowth, and production forests. Our analysis also revealed that climber removal studies are concentrated in the Neotropics (N = 22), relative to Africa (N = 2) and Asia (N = 2), preventing our study from assessing the influence of region on removal efficacy. While we found some evidence that enhancement of tree growth and AGB accumulation varies across disturbance context and removal method, but not across climate, the number and geographical distribution of studies limits the strength of these conclusions. Climber removal could contribute significantly to reducing global carbon emissions and enhancing the timber and biomass stocks of degraded forests, ultimately protecting them from conversion. However, we urgently need to assess the efficacy of removal outside the Neotropics, and consider the potential negative consequences of climber removal under drought conditions and for biodiversity.

Habitat Quality Differentiation and Consequences for Ecosystem Service Provision of an Amazonian Hyperdominant Tree Species

Ecosystem services of Amazonian forests are disproportionally produced by a limited set of hyperdominant tree species. Yet the spatial variation in the delivery of ecosystem services by individual hyperdominant species across their distribution ranges and corresponding environmental gradients is poorly understood. Here, we use the concept of habitat quality to unravel the effect of environmental gradients on seed production and aboveground biomass (AGB) of the Brazil nut, one of Amazonia's largest and most long-lived hyperdominants. We find that a range of climate and soil gradients create trade-offs between density and fitness of Brazil nut trees. Density responses to environmental gradients were in line with predictions under the Janzen-Connell and Herms-Mattson hypotheses, whereas tree fitness responses were in line with resource requirements of trees over their life cycle. These trade-offs resulted in divergent responses in area-based seed production and AGB. While seed production and AGB of individual trees (i.e., fitness) responded similarly to most environmental gradients, they showed opposite tendencies to tree density for almost half of the gradients. However, for gradients creating opposite fitness-density responses, area-based seed production was invariable, while trends in area-based AGB tended to mirror the response of tree density. We conclude that while the relation between environmental gradients and tree density is generally indicative of the response of AGB accumulation in a given area of forest, this is not necessarily the case for fruit production.

Recovery of logged forest fragments in a human-modified tropical landscape during the 2015-16 El Niño

The past 40 years in Southeast Asia have seen about 50% of lowland rainforests converted to oil palm and other plantations, and much of the remaining forest heavily logged. Little is known about how fragmentation influences recovery and whether climate change will hamper restoration. Here, we use repeat airborne LiDAR surveys spanning the hot and dry 2015-16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event to measure canopy height growth across 3,300 ha of regenerating tropical forests spanning a logging intensity gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We show that the drought led to increased leaf shedding and branch fall. Short forest, regenerating after heavy logging, continued to grow despite higher evaporative demand, except when it was located close to oil palm plantations. Edge effects from the plantations extended over 300 metres into the forests. Forest growth on hilltops and slopes was particularly impacted by the combination of fragmentation and drought, but even riparian forests located within 40 m of oil palm plantations lost canopy height during the drought. Our results suggest that small patches of logged forest within plantation landscapes will be slow to recover, particularly as ENSO events are becoming more frequent.

It is unclear whether tropical forest fragments within plantation landscapes are resilient to drought. Here the authors analyse LiDAR and ground-based data from the 2015-16 El Niño event across a logging intensity gradient in Borneo. Although regenerating forests continued to grow, canopy height near oil palm plantations decreased, and a strong edge effect extended up to at least 300 m away.

Impacts of Future Crop Tree Release Treatments on Forest Carbon as REDD+ Mitigation Benefits

Sustainable forest management activities, such as future crop tree (FCT) release treatments, became part of the REDD+ strategy to avoid carbon emissions from forests. FCT release treatments are intended to achieve increased growth of FCTs by removing competitor trees. This initially leads to a reduction of the forest carbon pool and represents a carbon debt. We estimated that the time it takes for FCTs to offset the carbon debt through increased growth on experimental sites of 10 km² in Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. We further investigated whether the costs of treatment can be compensated by the generated financial carbon benefits. An average of 2.3 FCT per hectare were released through the removal of an average of 3.3 competitors per hectare. This corresponds to an average above ground biomass (AGB) deficit of 2.3 Mg FCT−1. Assuming a 30% increase in growth, the FCT would need on average 130 years to offset the carbon loss. For carbon prices from US$ 5 to 100 Mg CO2e−1 an additional increment between 0.6 and 22.7 Mg tree−1 would be required to cover the treatment costs of US$ 4.2 to 8.4 FCT−1. Assuming a carbon price of US$ 10 Mg CO2e−1, the additional increment required would be between 5.8 and 11.4 Mg tree−1, thus exceeding the biological growth potential of most individual trees. The release of FCTs does not ensure an increase in forest carbon stocks, and refinancing of treatment costs is problematic.

Ecosystem Service Multifunctionality: Decline and Recovery Pathways in the Amazon and Chocó Lowland Rainforests

The balance between the supply of multiple ecosystem services (ES) and the fulfillment of society demands is a challenge, especially in the tropics where different land use transition phases emerge. These phases are characterized by either a decline (from intact old-growth to logged forests) or a recovery of ES (successional forests, plantations, and agroforestry systems). This highlights the importance of ecosystem service multifunctionality (M) assessments across these land use transition phases as a basis for forest management and conservation. We analyzed synergies and trade-offs of ES to identify potential umbrella ES. We also evaluated the impact of logging activities in the decline of ES and M, and the influence of three recovery phases in the supply of ES and M. We installed 156 inventory plots (1600 m2) in the Ecuadorian Central Amazon and the Chocó. We estimated indicators for provisioning, regulating, supporting services and biodiversity. M indicator was estimated using the multifunctional average approach. Our results show that above-ground carbon stocks can be considered as an umbrella service as it presented high synergetic relations with M and various ES. We observed that logging activities caused a decline of 16–18% on M, with high impacts for timber volume and above-ground carbon stocks, calling for more sustainable practices with stricter post-harvesting control to avoid a higher depletion of ES and M. From the recovery phases it is evident that, successional forests offer the highest level of M, evidencing high potential to recover multiple ES after human disturbance.

Above-ground biomass recovery following logging and thinning over 46 years in an Australian tropical forest

Managed tropical forests are a globally important carbon pool, but the effects of logging and thinning intensities on long-term biomass dynamics are poorly known. We investigated the demographic mechanisms of above-ground biomass recovery over 48 years in an Australian tropical forest following four silvicultural treatments: selective logging only as a control and selective logging followed by low-, medium- and high-intensity thinning. Initial biomass recovery rates following thinning were poor predictors of the long-term changes. Initial biomass recovery from 1969 to 1973 was slow and was largely concentrated on an increase in the biomass of residual stems. From 1973 to 1997, above ground biomass (AGB) increased almost linearly, with a similar slope for all sites. From 1997 to 2015, the rate of biomass accumulation slowed, especially for the L treatment. All thinning treatments stimulated more recruitment and regrowth of non-harvested remaining trees compared to the untreated control. Biomass at both the low and medium intensity treatments has almost fully recovered to 98% and 97% of pre-logging biomass levels respectively. The predicted times of complete above-ground biomass recovery for the logging only and high intensity treatments are 55 and 77 years respectively. The slower biomass recovery at the logging only site was largely due to increased mortality in the last measurement period. The slower recovery of the high intensity site was due to a combination of a higher initial reduction in biomass from thinning and the increased mortality in the last measurement period. The high mortality rates in the most recent measurement period are likely due to the impacts of two cyclones that impacted the study site. Our results suggest that it will take at least around 50 years for this site to recover to its pre-harvest biomass, much longer than many of the cutting cycles currently used in tropical forest management.

Active restoration accelerates the carbon recovery of human-modified tropical forests

More than half of all tropical forests are degraded by human impacts, leaving them threatened with conversion to agricultural plantations and risking substantial biodiversity and carbon losses. Restoration could accelerate recovery of aboveground carbon density (ACD), but adoption of restoration is constrained by cost and uncertainties over effectiveness. We report a long-term comparison of ACD recovery rates between naturally regenerating and actively restored logged tropical forests. Restoration enhanced decadal ACD recovery by more than 50%, from 2.9 to 4.4 megagrams per hectare per year. This magnitude of response, coupled with modal values of restoration costs globally, would require higher carbon prices to justify investment in restoration. However, carbon prices required to fulfill the 2016 Paris climate agreement [$40 to $80 (USD) per tonne carbon dioxide equivalent] would provide an economic justification for tropical forest restoration.

Comparison of Statistical Modelling Approaches for Estimating Tropical Forest Aboveground Biomass Stock and Reporting Their Changes in Low-Intensity Logging Areas Using Multi-Temporal LiDAR Data

Accurately quantifying forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is one of the most significant challenges in remote sensing, and is critical for understanding global carbon sequestration. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) for monitoring AGB stocks and change (ΔAGB) in a selectively logged tropical forest in eastern Amazonia. Specifically, we compare results from a suite of different modelling methods with extensive field data. The calibration AGB values were derived from 85 square field plots sized 50 × 50 m field plots established in 2014 and which were estimated using airborne LiDAR data acquired in 2012, 2014, and 2017. LiDAR-derived metrics were selected based upon Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and used to estimate AGB stock and change. The statistical approaches were: ordinary least squares regression (OLS), and nine machine learning approaches: random forest (RF), several variations of k-nearest neighbour (k-NN), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) was used to compare performance based upon root mean square error (RMSE) and mean difference (MD). The results show that OLS had the best performance with an RMSE of 46.94 Mg/ha (19.7%) and R² = 0.70. RF, SVM, and ANN were adequate, and all approaches showed RMSE ≤54.48 Mg/ha (22.89%). Models derived from k-NN variations all showed RMSE ≥64.61 Mg/ha (27.09%). The OLS model was thus selected to map AGB across the time-series. The mean (±sd—standard deviation) predicted AGB stock at the landscape level was 229.10 (±232.13) Mg/ha in 2012, 258.18 (±106.53) in 2014, and 240.34 (sd ± 177.00) Mg/ha in 2017, showing the effect of forest growth in the first period and logging in the second period. In most cases, unlogged areas showed higher AGB stocks than logged areas. Our methods showed an increase in AGB in unlogged areas and detected small changes from reduced-impact logging (RIL) activities occurring after 2012. We also detected that the AGB increase in areas logged before 2012 was higher than in unlogged areas. Based on our findings, we expect our study could serve as a basis for programs such as REDD+ and assist in detecting and understanding AGB changes caused by selective logging activities in tropical forests.

Demographic trade-offs predict tropical forest dynamics

Understanding tropical forest dynamics and planning for their sustainable management require efficient, yet accurate, predictions of the joint dynamics of hundreds of tree species. With increasing information on tropical tree life histories, our predictive understanding is no longer limited by species data but by the ability of existing models to make use of it. Using a demographic forest model, we show that the basal area and compositional changes during forest succession in a neotropical forest can be accurately predicted by representing tropical tree diversity (hundreds of species) with only five functional groups spanning two essential trade-offs-the growth-survival and stature-recruitment trade-offs. This data-driven modeling framework substantially improves our ability to predict consequences of anthropogenic impacts on tropical forests.

Gendered Species Preferences Link Tree Diversity and Carbon Stocks in Cacao Agroforest in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

The degree to which the maintenance of carbon (C) stocks and tree diversity can be jointly achieved in production landscapes is debated. C stocks in forests are decreased by logging before tree diversity is affected, while C stocks in monoculture tree plantations increase, but diversity does not. Agroforestry can break this hysteresis pattern, relevant for policies in search of synergy. We compared total C stocks and tree diversity among degraded forest, complex cacao/fruit tree agroforests, simple shade-tree cacao agroforestry, monoculture cacao, and annual crops in the Konawe District, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. We evaluated farmer tree preferences and the utility value of the system for 40 farmers (male and female). The highest tree diversity (Shannon–Wiener H index 2.36) and C stocks (282 Mg C ha−1) were found in degraded forest, followed by cacao-based agroforestry systems (H index ranged from 0.58–0.93 with C stocks of 75–89 Mg ha−1). Male farmers selected timber and fruit tree species with economic benefits as shade trees, while female farmers preferred production for household needs (fruit trees and vegetables). Carbon stocks and tree diversity were positively related (R2 = 0.72). Adding data from across Indonesia (n = 102), agroforestry systems had an intermediate position between forest decline and reforestation responses. Maintaining agroforestry in the landscape allows aboveground C stocks up to 50 Mg ha−1 and reduces biodiversity loss. Agroforestry facilitates climate change mitigation and biodiversity goals to be addressed simultaneously in sustainable production landscapes.

Estimating aboveground net biomass change for tropical and subtropical forests: Refinement of IPCC default rates using forest plot data

As countries advance in greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting for climate change mitigation, consistent estimates of aboveground net biomass change (∆AGB) are needed. Countries with limited forest monitoring capabilities in the tropics and subtropics rely on IPCC 2006 default ∆AGB rates, which are values per ecological zone, per continent. Similarly, research into forest biomass change at a large scale also makes use of these rates. IPCC 2006 default rates come from a handful of studies, provide no uncertainty indications and do not distinguish between older secondary forests and old-growth forests. As part of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, we incorporate ∆AGB data available from 2006 onwards, comprising 176 chronosequences in secondary forests and 536 permanent plots in old-growth and managed/logged forests located in 42 countries in Africa, North and South America and Asia. We generated ∆AGB rate estimates for younger secondary forests (≤20 years), older secondary forests (>20 years and up to 100 years) and old-growth forests, and accounted for uncertainties in our estimates. In tropical rainforests, for which data availability was the highest, our ∆AGB rate estimates ranged from 3.4 (Asia) to 7.6 (Africa) Mg ha^-1  year^-1 in younger secondary forests, from 2.3 (North and South America) to 3.5 (Africa) Mg ha^-1  year^-1 in older secondary forests, and 0.7 (Asia) to 1.3 (Africa) Mg ha^-1  year^-1 in old-growth forests. We provide a rigorous and traceable refinement of the IPCC 2006 default rates in tropical and subtropical ecological zones, and identify which areas require more research on ∆AGB. In this respect, this study should be considered as an important step towards quantifying the role of tropical and subtropical forests as carbon sinks with higher accuracy; our new rates can be used for large-scale GHG accounting by governmental bodies, nongovernmental organizations and in scientific research.

Satellite-observed pantropical carbon dynamics

Changes in terrestrial tropical carbon stocks have an important role in the global carbon budget. However, current observational tools do not allow accurate and large-scale monitoring of the spatial distribution and dynamics of carbon stocks¹. Here, we used low-frequency L-band passive microwave observations to compute a direct and spatially explicit quantification of annual aboveground carbon (AGC) fluxes and show that the tropical net AGC budget was approximately in balance during 2010 to 2017, the net budget being composed of gross losses of -2.86 PgC yr^-1 offset by gross gains of -2.97 PgC yr^-1 between continents. Large interannual and spatial fluctuations of tropical AGC were quantified during the wet 2011 La Niña year and throughout the extreme dry and warm 2015-2016 El Niño episode. These interannual fluctuations, controlled predominantly by semiarid biomes, were shown to be closely related to independent global atmospheric CO₂ growth-rate anomalies (Pearson's r = 0.86), highlighting the pivotal role of tropical AGC in the global carbon budget.

Long-term influence of early human occupations on current forests of the Guiana Shield

To decipher the long-term influences of pre-Columbian land occupations on contemporary forest structure, diversity, and functioning in Amazonia, most of the previous research focused on the alluvial plains of the major rivers of the Amazon basin. Terra firme, that is, nonflooded forests, particularly from the Guiana Shield, are yet to be explored. In this study, we aim to give new insights into the subtle traces of pre-Columbian influences on present-day forests given the archaeological context of terra firme forests of the Guiana Shield. Following archaeological prospects on 13 sites in French Guiana, we carried out forest inventories inside and outside archaeological sites and assessed the potential pre-Columbian use of the sampled tree species using an original ethnobotanical database of the Guiana Shield region. Aboveground biomass (320 and 380 T/ha, respectively), basal area (25-30 and 30-35 m² /ha, respectively), and tree density (550 and 700 stem/ha, respectively) were all significantly lower on anthropized plots (As) than on nonanthropized plots (NAs). Ancient human presence shaped the species composition of the sampled forests with Arecaceae, Burseraceae, and Lauraceae significantly more frequent in As and Annonaceae and Lecythidaceae more frequent in NAs. Although alpha diversity was not different between As and NAs, the presence of pre-Columbian sites enhances significantly the forest beta diversity at the landscape level. Finally, trees with edible fruits are positively associated with pre-Columbian sites, whereas trees used for construction or for their bark are negatively associated with pre-Columbian sites. Half a millennium after their abandonment, former occupied places from the inner Guiana Shield still bear noticeable differences with nonanthropized places. Considering the lack of data concerning archaeology of terra firme Amazonian forests, our results suggest that pre-Columbian influences on the structure (lower current biomass), diversity (higher beta diversity), and composition (linked to the past human tree uses) of current Amazonian forests might be more important than previously thought.

Degradation of Ecosystem Services and Deforestation in Landscapes With and Without Incentive-Based Forest Conservation in the Ecuadorian Amazon

Anthropogenic activities such as logging or forest conversion into agricultural lands are affecting Ecuadorian Amazon forests. To foster private and communal conservation activities an economic incentive-based conservation program (IFC) called Socio Bosque was established. Existing analyses related to conservation strategies are mainly focused on deforestation; while degradation and the role of IFC to safeguard ecosystem services are still scarce. Further on, there is a lack of landscape-level studies taking into account potential side effects of IFC on different forest types. Therefore we assessed ecosystem services (carbon stocks, timber volume) and species richness in landscapes with and without IFC. Additionally, we evaluated potential side-effects of IFC in adjacent forest types; hypothesizing potential leakage effects of IFC. Finally, we tested if deforestation rates decreased after IFC implementation. Forest inventories were conducted in 72 plots across eight landscapes in the Ecuadorian Central Amazon with and without IFC. Plots were randomly selected within three forest types (old-growth, logged and successional forests). In each plot all individuals with a diameter at breast height greater than 10 cm were measured. Old-growth forests in general showed higher carbon stocks, timber volume and species richness, and no significant differences between old-growth forests in IFC and non-IFC landscapes were found. Logged forests had 32% less above-ground carbon (AGC) and timber volume in comparison to old-growth forests. Surprisingly, logged forests near IFC presented higher AGC stocks than logged forests in non-IFC landscapes, indicating positive side-effects of IFC. Successional forests contain 56% to 64% of AGC, total carbon and timber volume, in comparison to old-growth forests, and 82% to 87% in comparison to logged forests. Therefore, successional forests could play an important role for restoration and should receive more attention in national climate change policies. Finally, after IFC implementation deforestation rate decreased on parish level. Our study presents scientific evidence of IFC contribution to conserving ecosystem services and species richness. In addition IFC could help indirectly to reduce degradation effects attributed to logging, indicating potential compatibility of conservation aims with forest activities at a landscape level.

Logging and soil nutrients independently explain plant trait expression in tropical forests

Plant functional traits regulate ecosystem functions but little is known about how co-occurring gradients of land use and edaphic conditions influence their expression. We test how gradients of logging disturbance and soil properties relate to community-weighted mean traits in logged and old-growth tropical forests in Borneo. We studied 32 physical, chemical and physiological traits from 284 tree species in eight 1 ha plots and measured long-term soil nutrient supplies and plant-available nutrients. Logged plots had greater values for traits that drive carbon capture and growth, whilst old-growth forests had greater values for structural and persistence traits. Although disturbance was the primary driver of trait expression, soil nutrients explained a statistically independent axis of variation linked to leaf size and nutrient concentration. Soil characteristics influenced trait expression via nutrient availability, nutrient pools, and pH. Our finding, that traits have dissimilar responses to land use and soil resource availability, provides robust evidence for the need to consider the abiotic context of logging when predicting plant functional diversity across human-modified tropical forests. The detection of two independent axes was facilitated by the measurement of many more functional traits than have been examined in previous studies.

Windthrows control biomass patterns and functional composition of Amazon forests

Amazon forests account for ~25% of global land biomass and tropical tree species. In these forests, windthrows (i.e., snapped and uprooted trees) are a major natural disturbance, but the rates and mechanisms of recovery are not known. To provide a predictive framework for understanding the effects of windthrows on forest structure and functional composition (DBH ≥10 cm), we quantified biomass recovery as a function of windthrow severity (i.e., fraction of windthrow tree mortality on Landsat pixels, ranging from 0%-70%) and time since disturbance for terra-firme forests in the Central Amazon. Forest monitoring allowed insights into the processes and mechanisms driving the net biomass change (i.e., increment minus loss) and shifts in functional composition. Windthrown areas recovering for between 4-27 years had biomass stocks as low as 65.2-91.7 Mg/ha or 23%-38% of those in nearby undisturbed forests (~255.6 Mg/ha, all sites). Even low windthrow severities (4%-20% tree mortality) caused decadal changes in biomass stocks and structure. While rates of biomass increment in recovering vegetation were nearly double (6.3 ± 1.4 Mg ha^-1  year^-1 ) those of undisturbed forests (~3.7 Mg ha^-1  year^-1 ), biomass loss due to post-windthrow mortality was high (up to -7.5 ± 8.7 Mg ha^-1  year^-1 , 8.5 years since disturbance) and unpredictable. Consequently, recovery to 90% of "pre-disturbance" biomass takes up to 40 years. Resprouting trees contributed little to biomass recovery. Instead, light-demanding, low-density genera (e.g., Cecropia, Inga, Miconia, Pourouma, Tachigali, and Tapirira) were favored, resulting in substantial post-windthrow species turnover. Shifts in functional composition demonstrate that windthrows affect the resilience of live tree biomass by favoring soft-wooded species with shorter life spans that are more vulnerable to future disturbances. As the time required for forests to recover biomass is likely similar to the recurrence interval of windthrows triggering succession, windthrows have the potential to control landscape biomass/carbon dynamics and functional composition in Amazon forests.

Second rate or a second chance? Assessing biomass and biodiversity recovery in regenerating Amazonian forests

Secondary forests (SFs) regenerating on previously deforested land account for large, expanding areas of tropical forest cover. Given that tropical forests rank among Earth's most important reservoirs of carbon and biodiversity, SFs play an increasingly pivotal role in the carbon cycle and as potential habitat for forest biota. Nevertheless, their capacity to regain the biotic attributes of undisturbed primary forests (UPFs) remains poorly understood. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of SF recovery, using extensive tropical biodiversity, biomass, and environmental datasets. These data, collected in 59 naturally regenerating SFs and 30 co-located UPFs in the eastern Amazon, cover >1,600 large- and small-stemmed plant, bird, and dung beetles species and a suite of forest structure, landscape context, and topoedaphic predictors. After up to 40 years of regeneration, the SFs we surveyed showed a high degree of biodiversity resilience, recovering, on average among taxa, 88% and 85% mean UPF species richness and composition, respectively. Across the first 20 years of succession, the period for which we have accurate SF age data, biomass recovered at 1.2% per year, equivalent to a carbon uptake rate of 2.25 Mg/ha per year, while, on average, species richness and composition recovered at 2.6% and 2.3% per year, respectively. For all taxonomic groups, biomass was strongly associated with SF species distributions. However, other variables describing habitat complexity-canopy cover and understory stem density-were equally important occurrence predictors for most taxa. Species responses to biomass revealed a successional transition at approximately 75 Mg/ha, marking the influx of high-conservation-value forest species. Overall, our results show that naturally regenerating SFs can accumulate substantial amounts of carbon and support many forest species. However, given that the surveyed SFs failed to return to a typical UPF state, SFs are not substitutes for UPFs.

Drought-induced Amazonian wildfires instigate a decadal-scale disruption of forest carbon dynamics

Drought-induced wildfires have increased in frequency and extent over the tropics. Yet, the long-term (greater than 10 years) responses of Amazonian lowland forests to fire disturbance are poorly known. To understand post-fire forest biomass dynamics, and to assess the time required for fire-affected forests to recover to pre-disturbance levels, we combined 16 single with 182 multiple forest census into a unique large-scale and long-term dataset across the Brazilian Amazonia. We quantified biomass, mortality and wood productivity of burned plots along a chronosequence of up to 31 years post-fire and compared to surrounding unburned plots measured simultaneously. Stem mortality and growth were assessed among functional groups. At the plot level, we found that fire-affected forests have biomass levels 24.8 ± 6.9% below the biomass value of unburned control plots after 31 years. This lower biomass state results from the elevated levels of biomass loss through mortality, which is not sufficiently compensated for by wood productivity (incremental growth + recruitment). At the stem level, we found major changes in mortality and growth rates up to 11 years post-fire. The post-fire stem mortality rates exceeded unburned control plots by 680% (i.e. greater than 40 cm diameter at breast height (DBH); 5-8 years since last fire) and 315% (i.e. greater than 0.7 g cm^-3 wood density; 0.75-4 years since last fire). Our findings indicate that wildfires in humid tropical forests can significantly reduce forest biomass for decades by enhancing mortality rates of all trees, including large and high wood density trees, which store the largest amount of biomass in old-growth forests. This assessment of stem dynamics, therefore, demonstrates that wildfires slow down or stall the post-fire recovery of Amazonian forests.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Trade-offs between carbon stocks and timber recovery in tropical forests are mediated by logging intensity

Forest degradation accounts for ~70% of total carbon losses from tropical forests. Substantial emissions are from selective logging, a land-use activity that decreases forest carbon density. To maintain carbon values in selectively logged forests, climate change mitigation policies and government agencies promote the adoption of reduced-impact logging (RIL) practices. However, whether RIL will maintain both carbon and timber values in managed tropical forests over time remains uncertain. In this study, we quantify the recovery of timber stocks and aboveground carbon at an experimental site where forests were subjected to different intensities of RIL (4, 8, and 16 trees/ha). Our census data span 20 years postlogging and 17 years after the liberation of future crop trees from competition in a tropical forest on the Guiana Shield, a globally important forest carbon reservoir. We model recovery of timber and carbon with a breakpoint regression that allowed us to capture elevated tree mortality immediately after logging. Recovery rates of timber and carbon were governed by the presence of residual trees (i.e., trees that persisted through the first harvest). The liberation treatment stimulated faster recovery of timber albeit at a carbon cost. Model results suggest a threshold logging intensity beyond which forests managed for timber and carbon derive few benefits from RIL, with recruitment and residual growth not sufficient to offset losses. Inclusion of the breakpoint at which carbon and timber gains outpaced postlogging mortality led to high predictive accuracy, including out-of-sample R² values >90%, and enabled inference on demographic changes postlogging. Our modeling framework is broadly applicable to studies that aim to quantify impacts of logging on forest recovery. Overall, we demonstrate that initial mortality drives variation in recovery rates, that the second harvest depends on old growth wood, and that timber intensification lowers carbon stocks.

Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year (95% CI 0.14–0.72, mean period 1988–2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world’s remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997–1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.

The existence of a pan-tropical forest carbon sink remains uncertain due to the lack of data from Asia. Here, using direct on-the-ground observations, the authors confirm remaining intact forests in Borneo have provided a long-term carbon sink, but carbon net gains are vulnerable to drought and edge effects.

Tropical forest light regimes in a human-modified landscape

Light is the key energy input for all vegetated systems. Forest light regimes are complex, with the vertical pattern of light within canopies influenced by forest structure. Human disturbances in tropical forests impact forest structure and hence may influence the light environment and thus competitiveness of different trees. In this study, we measured vertical diffuse light profiles along a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance, sampling intact, logged, secondary, and fragmented sites in the biodiversity hot spot of the Atlantic forest, southeast Brazil, using photosynthetically active radiation sensors and a novel approach with estimations of vertical light profiles from hemispherical photographs. Our results show clear differences in vertical light profiles with disturbance: Fragmented forests are characterized by rapid light extinction within their low canopies, while the profiles in logged forests show high heterogeneity and high light in the mid-canopy despite decades of recovery. The secondary forest showed similar light profiles to intact forest, but with a lower canopy height. We also show that in some cases the upper canopy layer and heavy liana infestations can severely limit light penetration. Light extinction with height above the ground and depth below the canopy top was highest in fragmented forest and negatively correlated with canopy height. The novel, inexpensive, and rapid methods described here can be applied to other sites to quantify rarely measured vertical light profiles.

Carbon recovery dynamics following disturbance by selective logging in Amazonian forests

When 2 Mha of Amazonian forests are disturbed by selective logging each year, more than 90 Tg of carbon (C) is emitted to the atmosphere. Emissions are then counterbalanced by forest regrowth. With an original modelling approach, calibrated on a network of 133 permanent forest plots (175 ha total) across Amazonia, we link regional differences in climate, soil and initial biomass with survivors' and recruits' C fluxes to provide Amazon-wide predictions of post-logging C recovery. We show that net aboveground C recovery over 10 years is higher in the Guiana Shield and in the west (21 ±3 Mg C ha-1) than in the south (12 ±3 Mg C ha-1) where environmental stress is high (low rainfall, high seasonality). We highlight the key role of survivors in the forest regrowth and elaborate a comprehensive map of post-disturbance C recovery potential in Amazonia.

A methodological framework to assess the carbon balance of tropical managed forests

BACKGROUND

Managed forests are a major component of tropical landscapes. Production forests as designated by national forest services cover up to 400 million ha, i.e. half of the forested area in the humid tropics. Forest management thus plays a major role in the global carbon budget, but with a lack of unified method to estimate carbon fluxes from tropical managed forests. In this study we propose a new time- and spatially-explicit methodology to estimate the above-ground carbon budget of selective logging at regional scale.

RESULTS

The yearly balance of a logging unit, i.e. the elementary management unit of a forest estate, is modelled by aggregating three sub-models encompassing (i) emissions from extracted wood, (ii) emissions from logging damage and deforested areas and (iii) carbon storage from post-logging recovery. Models are parametrised and uncertainties are propagated through a MCMC algorithm. As a case study, we used 38 years of National Forest Inventories in French Guiana, northeastern Amazonia, to estimate the above-ground carbon balance (i.e. the net carbon exchange with the atmosphere) of selectively logged forests. Over this period, the net carbon balance of selective logging in the French Guianan Permanent Forest Estate is estimated to be comprised between 0.12 and 1.33 Tg C, with a median value of 0.64 Tg C. Uncertainties over the model could be diminished by improving the accuracy of both logging damage and large woody necromass decay submodels.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose an innovating carbon accounting framework relying upon basic logging statistics. This flexible tool allows carbon budget of tropical managed forests to be estimated in a wide range of tropical regions.

Biomass resilience of Neotropical secondary forests

Land-use change occurs nowhere more rapidly than in the tropics, where the imbalance between deforestation and forest regrowth has large consequences for the global carbon cycle. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the rate of biomass recovery in secondary forests, and how these rates are influenced by climate, landscape, and prior land use. Here we analyse aboveground biomass recovery during secondary succession in 45 forest sites and about 1,500 forest plots covering the major environmental gradients in the Neotropics. The studied secondary forests are highly productive and resilient. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years was on average 122 megagrams per hectare (Mg ha(-1)), corresponding to a net carbon uptake of 3.05 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), 11 times the uptake rate of old-growth forests. Aboveground biomass stocks took a median time of 66 years to recover to 90% of old-growth values. Aboveground biomass recovery after 20 years varied 11.3-fold (from 20 to 225 Mg ha(-1)) across sites, and this recovery increased with water availability (higher local rainfall and lower climatic water deficit). We present a biomass recovery map of Latin America, which illustrates geographical and climatic variation in carbon sequestration potential during forest regrowth. The map will support policies to minimize forest loss in areas where biomass resilience is naturally low (such as seasonally dry forest regions) and promote forest regeneration and restoration in humid tropical lowland areas with high biomass resilience.