Incidence of primary liver cancer in Italy between 1988 and 2002: an age-period-cohort analysis

Trends in Liver Cancer Incidence and Survival in Italy by Histologic Type, 2003-2017

(1) Background: Liver cancer in Italy is characterised by one of the highest incidence rates worldwide outside of Asia coupled with comparatively favourable survival figures. The objective of this study was to evaluate the most recent epidemiologic trends of the disease. (2) Methods: Thirteen cancer registries covering a population of about 12,740,000 (21% of the national population) made available the records of 35,574 cases registered between 2003 and 2017. Trends in age-standardised (Europe 2013) incidence rates were analysed using the results of age-drift models. Trends in survival were analysed using 1-year, 2-year, 5-year and 10-year net survival (NS) and 5|1-year and 5|2-year conditional NS. (3) Results: Over the study period, the average annual incidence rates per 100,000 persons were 29.4 (men) and 9.4 (women) for total liver cancer; 14.6 and 3.5 for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); 1.8 and 1.1 for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC); and 13.0 and 4.8 for the 'other liver cancer types' group. The incidence of total liver cancer and HCC decreased significantly for both sexes. For total liver cancer, the estimated average annual percent change was -1.6% among men and -2.1% among women. For HCC, the change was -1.3% among men and -2.7% among women. ICC followed an opposite trend. For men, the risk of HCC had two peaks, one in the birth cohorts of 1928 and 1933 and another, more moderate peak in the cohort of 1958. Men and women exhibited comparable improvements in both early and mid-term conditional NS from HCC. In 2013-2017, 5-year NS was 28.9% (95% CI: 27.3%; 30.6%) for men and 30.1% (95% CI: 26.9%; 33.5%) for women. The uptrend in survival from ICC was less pronounced and was weakly significant, with a 5-year NS in 2013-2017 of 13.9% (95% CI: 10.8%; 17.3%) for men and 17.4% (95% CI: 13.5%; 21.7%) for women. (4) Conclusions: The opposite incidence trends of HCC and ICC confirm a pattern observed in other populations. The generalised, albeit slow, improvement in survival from HCC indicates a trend towards earlier detection coupled with improvements in treatments.

Frequency of somatic mutations in TERT promoter, TP53 and CTNNB1 genes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from Southern Italy

Somatic mutations in the TERT promoter and in the TP53 and CTNNB1 genes are considered drivers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. They show variable frequencies in different geographic areas, possibly depending on liver disease etiology and environmental factors. TP53, CTNNB1 and TERT genetic mutations were investigated in tumor and non-tumor liver tissues from 67 patients with HCC and liver tissue specimens from 41 control obese subjects from Southern Italy. Furthermore, TERT expression was assessed by reverse transcription-quantitative PCR. Neither CTNNB1 mutations or TP53 R249S substitution were detected in any case. The TP53 R72P polymorphism was found in 10/67 (14.9%) tumors, but was not found in either non-tumor tissues (P=0.001) or controls (P=0.009). TERT gene promoter mutations were found in 29/67 (43.3%) tumor tissues but were not found in either non-tumor (P<0.0001) or control liver specimens (P<0.0001). The most frequent mutation in the tumors was the known hot spot at -124 bp from the TERT ATG start site (-124G>A, 28 cases, 41.8%; P<0.0001). A new previously never reported TERT promoter mutation (at -297 bp from the ATG, -297C>T) was found in 5/67 (7.5%) tumors, in 0/67 (0%) non-tumor (P<0.0001), and in 0/41 (0%) controls (P=0.07). This mutation creates an AP2 consensus sequence, and was found alone (1 case) or in combination (4 cases) with the -124 bp mutation. The mutation at -124 and -297 bp induced a 33-fold (P<0.0001) and 40-fold increase of TERT expression levels, respectively. When both mutations were present, TERT expression levels were increased >300-fold (P=0.001). A new TERT promoter mutation was identified, which generates a de novo binding motif for AP2 transcription factors, and which significantly increases TERT promoter transcriptional activity.

Mortality trends of liver diseases in mainland China over three decades: an age-period-cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyse mortality trends of liver diseases in China over the past 30 years.

DESIGN

Age-period-cohort analyses were applied to liver diseases data obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Annual Report (1987-2001) and the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook (2003-2017).

SETTING

General population in mainland China.

OUTCOMES

Mortality rates and age, period and cohort effects on three categories of liver diseases: primary liver cancer (PLC), chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (CLD), and viral hepatitis (VH).

RESULTS

A total of 13.54 million deaths were attributable to liver diseases over the period between 1987 and 2016, resulting in an average of 36.15 deaths per 100 000 population per year. The risk of PLC mortality increased by 32.69% over the period after controlling for the effects of age and birth cohort. By contrast, the risk of CLD mortality decreased by 56.64% over the same period. The risk of VH mortality decreased first, followed by a resurgence after the period of 2002-2006. Similar mortality risk trends by age (increasing) and birth cohort (decreasing) were observed for PLC and CLD. The year 1952 represented a turning point for VH, with people born after 1950 experiencing a declining risk of VH mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

China has achieved great success in reducing the mortality of VH and CLD. However, significant challenges lie ahead in the efforts to prevent and control PLC and the resurgence of VH.

Long-Term Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China 1990-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Liver cancer (LC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths: this study aims to present the long-term trends and age–period–cohort effects of the incidence of and mortality from LC in China during 1990–2017. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We determined trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) using Joinpoint regression. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis was performed to describe the long-term trends with intrinsic estimator methods. The ASMR decreased markedly before 2013 and increased thereafter, with overall average annual percent change (AAPC) values of −0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.6%, −0.3%) for men and −1.3% (−1.6%, −1.0%) for women during 1990–2017. The ASIR significantly increased by 0.2% (0.1%, 0.3%) in men and decreased by 1.1% (−1.2%, −1.0%) in women from 1990 to 2017. The risks of LC incidence and mortality increased with age in both genders. The period effect risk ratios (RRs) of incidence and mortality displayed similar monotonic increasing trends in men and remained stable in women. The cohort effect showed an overall downward trend and almost overlapping incidence and mortality in both genders, and later birth cohorts experienced lower RRs than previous birth cohorts. Older age, recent period, and birth before 1923 were associated with a higher risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality. The net age and period effects showed an increasing trend, while the cohort effects presented a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality risk. As China’s population aging worsens and with the popularization of unhealthy lifestyles, the burden caused by liver cancer will remain a huge challenge in China’s future.

Estimates of the Incidence and Prevalence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Italy in 2002 and Projections for the Years 2007 and 2012

Aims and background

Data on liver cancer incidence and prevalence in Italy are not available on a national and regional level.

Methods

We provided estimates of the number of incident and prevalent cases for hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy overall and in various regions in 2002 and gave projections for the years 2007 and 2012. We obtained annual numbers of incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma by combining mortality data provided by the World Health Organization and information on survival for liver cancer, and subsequently derived five-year prevalence for hepatocellular carcinoma by combining incidence with information on survival.

Results

In 2002, there were about 5800 incident cases and 4300 prevalent cases of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy. The most reliable estimate of hepatocellular carcinoma incident cases in Italy in 2007 is between 5500 and 6000, and this figure is likely to decline to 5000–5500 in 2012. The best estimate of prevalence is about 4000 cases in 2007, which is likely to decline to 3700 in 2012.

Conclusions

Incidence and prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma are likely to remain approximately stable between 2002 and 2007 and slightly decrease in the subsequent quinquennia. These projections are, however, subject to large uncertainties because of the problems in diagnosis and death certification for this neoplasm, particularly for the elderly.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Liver Cancer Mortality in Korea

BACKGROUND

Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of death in the world. In Korea, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major risk factor for liver cancer but infection rates have been declining since the implementation of the national vaccination program. In this study, we examined the secular trends in liver cancer mortality to distinguish the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data for the annual number of liver cancer deaths in Korean adults (30 years and older) were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service for the period from 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to study the shapes of and to detect the changes in mortality trends. Also, an age-period-cohort model was designed to study the effect of each age, period, and birth cohort on liver cancer mortality.

RESULTS

For both men and women, the age-standardized mortality rate for liver cancer increased from 1984 to 1993 and decreased thereafter. The highest liver cancer mortality rate has shifted to an older age group in recent years. Within the same birth cohort group, the mortality rate of older age groups has been higher than in the younger age groups. Age-period-cohort analysis showed an association with a high mortality rate in the older age group and in recent years, whereas a decreasing mortality rate were observed in the younger birth cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirmed a decreasing trend in liver cancer mortality among Korean men and women after 1993. The trends in mortality rate may be mainly attributed to cohort effects.

Inflammatory potential of diet and risk for hepatocellular cancer in a case-control study from Italy

Inflammation and diet have been suggested to be important risk factors for hepatocellular cancer (HCC). This Italian multicentre hospital-based case-control study conducted between 1999 and 2002 and including 185 cases with incident, histologically confirmed HCC, and 404 controls hospitalised for acute non-neoplastic diseases provided an opportunity to investigate the association between HCC and the dietary inflammatory index (DII). The DII was computed on the basis of dietary intake assessed 2 years before the date of interview by a validated sixty-three-item FFQ. Logistic regression models were used to estimate OR adjusted for age, sex, study centre, education, BMI, smoking, physical activity, serum markers of hepatitis B and C infection and energy intake. Energy adjustment for DII was performed using the residual method. Participants in the highest tertile of DII scores (i.e. with a more pro-inflammatory diet) had a higher risk for HCC (ORtertile 3 v, 1 2·43; 95 % CI 1·27, 4·68; P trend=0·03). When stratified by the presence or absence of hepatitis B/C infection and sex, DII was strongly associated with HCC in hepatitis B- and C-negative participants (ORtertile 3 v. 1 4·18; 95 % CI 1·53, 11·39; P trend=0·02) and among males (ORtertile 3 v. 1 3·60; 95 % CI 1·65, 7·87; P trend=0·001). These results indicate that a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk for HCC, in those without a history of hepatitis B/C infection and among males.

International trends in primary liver cancer incidence from 1973 to 2007

BACKGROUND

Primary liver cancer (PLC) is a common cancer worldwide, especially in developing countries. Several previous studies using different datasets have summarized PLC incidence rates and trends in different populations. However, with changes in exposure to risk factors and the implementation of preventive measures, the epidemiology of PLC worldwide may have changed.

METHODS

We extended the analyses using the latest data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents over the 35-year period 1973-2007 from 24 populations in Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania using Joinpoint regression analysis. We examined age-standardized rates (ASRs) of PLC by histologic subtypes for both males and females in 24 populations during the period 2003-2007.

RESULTS

We found that during the period 2003-2007, the highest ASRs for PLC were observed in some Asian populations, ranging from 19.0 to 26.7 per 100,000 in males and 4.8 to 8.7 per 100,000 in females. The international trends between 1973 and 2007 showed that ASRs for PLC were declining in several Asian populations. In contrast, ASRs for PLC were increasing in some European, American and Oceanian populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the reasons were not fully clear for these trends, public health measures in Asian populations and HCV transmission in European, American and Oceanian populations were likely to have contributed to these patterns. Meanwhile, other possible risk factors such as the consumption of alcohol, obesity, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease should also be concerned for the burden of PLC.

Combination of individualized local control and target-specific agent to improve unresectable liver cancer managements: a matched case-control study

Management of late-stage hepatocellular carcinoma is difficult. A direct comparison of clinical data is needed in order to demonstrate the survival benefits of different therapies. We directly compared various therapies in a retrospective matched case-control study. A total of 79 patients with unresectable tumors greater than 10 cm in size were included in the study between 2008 and 2012. Thirty-five patients were treated with transarterial chemoembolization for local control, 20 were treated with sorafenib systemic chemotherapy, and 24 received combination treatment. The total follow-up time after initial therapy was 4.5 years. Survival time after treatment was significantly longer in the combination therapy group (P < 0.0001). The median survival times for combination, local control, and systemic chemotherapy were 15 (12-21), 10 (9-13), and 3.5 (2.5-9.0) months (95 % confidence interval), respectively. The hazard ratios for local control and systemic chemotherapy were 1.985 and 5.102, respectively, with combination treatment as the reference. There was no observed difference in combination therapy from the side effects of the individual therapies. In conclusion, the limited availability of therapeutic options for late-stage liver cancer necessitates reliance on multidisciplinary personalized medicine approaches with target-specific medications to increase survival time. Combining individualized local control therapy and drugs that target specific disease markers provides more benefits to patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology

Primary liver cancer (namely hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC) is worldwide the fifth most common cancer in men and the seventh one in women, and it represents the third most frequent cause of cancer death. HCC rates are particularly high in eastern/south-eastern Asia and in Africa, intermediate in Southern Europe, and low in most high-income countries. Persistent infections by HBV or HCV are the main recognized risk factors for HCC. Aflatoxin exposure is also an important risk factor for HCC development in Africa and eastern Asia. In high-income countries heavy alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking, overweight, diabetes, familial/genetic factors, and selected dietary aspects, have a relevant role. Updated geographic patterns and time trends in mortality from HCC in Europe, USA, Japan, and Australia are provided in the present review, together with an overview of relevant etiologic factors for HCC and main measures for the prevention of this neoplasm.

White paper of Italian Gastroenterology: delivery of services for digestive diseases in Italy: weaknesses and strengths

In 2011 the three major Italian gastroenterological scientific societies (AIGO, the Italian Society of Hospital Gastroenterologists and Endoscopists; SIED, the Italian Society of Endoscopy; SIGE, the Italian Society of Gastroenterology) prepared their official document aimed at analysing medical care for digestive diseases in Italy, on the basis of national and regional data (Health Ministry and Lombardia, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna databases) and to make proposals for planning of care. Digestive diseases were the first or second cause of hospitalizations in Italy in 1999-2009, with more than 1,500,000 admissions/year; however only 5-9% of these admissions was in specialized Gastroenterology units. Reported data show a better outcome in Gastroenterology Units than in non-specialized units: shorter average length of stay, in particular for admissions with ICD-9-CM codes proxying for emergency conditions (6.7 days versus 8.4 days); better case mix (higher average diagnosis-related groups weight in Gastroenterology Units: 1 vs 0.97 in Internal Medicine units and 0.76 in Surgery units); lower inappropriateness of admissions (16-25% versus 29-87%); lower in-hospital mortality in urgent admissions (2.2% versus 5.1%); for patients with urgent admissions due to gastrointestinnal haemorrhage, in-hospital mortality was 2.3% in Gastroenterology units versus 4.0% in others. The present document summarizes the scientific societies' official report, which constitutes the "White paper of Italian Gastroenterology".

Multiple target-specific molecular imaging agents detect liver cancer in a preclinical model

Liver cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Noninvasive diagnosis is difficult and the disease heterogeneity reduces the accuracy of pathological assays. Improvement in diagnostic imaging of specific molecular disease markers has provided hope for accurate and early noninvasive detection of liver cancer. However, all current imaging technologies, including ultrasonography, computed tomography (CT), positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging, are not specific targets for detection of liver cancer. The aim of this study was to test the feasibility of injecting a cocktail of specific molecular imaging agents to noninvasively image liver cancer. The target-specific cocktail contained agents for imaging the neovasculature (RGD peptide), matrix metalloproteinase (MMP), and glucose transport (¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose [¹⁸F-FDG]). Imaging studies were performed in liver cancer cells and xenograft models. The distribution of MMP at the intracellular level was imaged by confocal microscopy. RGD, MMP, and ¹⁸F-FDG were imaged on tumor-bearing mice using PET, CT, X-ray, and multi-wavelength optical imaging modalities. Image data demonstrated that each agent bound to a specific disease target component. The same liver cancer xenograft contained multiple disease markers. Those disease markers were heterogenetically distributed in the same tumor nodule. The molecular imaging agents had different distributions in the whole body and inside the tumor nodule. All target-specific agents yielded high tumor-to-background ratios after injection. In conclusion, target-specific molecular imaging agents can be used to study liver cancer in vitro and in vivo. Noninvasive multimodal/multi-target-specific molecular imaging agents could provide tools to simultaneously study multiple liver cancer components.

Advanced detection of recent changing trends in gastric cancer survival: up-to-date comparison by period analysis

OBJECTIVE

To establish a comprehensive cancer treatment and prevention policy, data collection should be performed in a timely manner, and survival analysis needs to reflect changes in treatment strategy. Therefore, we introduced the concept of period analysis for gastric cancer, the most prevalent cancer in Korea. We estimated 5- and 10-year survival trend of gastric cancer, based on data from the Yonsei Cancer Center Tumor Registry between 1990 and 2004.

METHODS

We compared the differences in survival between cohort, complete and period analyses for two different periods, 1995-99 and 2000-04.

RESULTS

A total of 11 724 cases were included. The median age of cancer diagnosis gradually increased over time, and more patients were diagnosed with Stage I disease in recent years. In the basic comparison of three estimated analytic methods (cohort, complete and period), period analysis (45.8%) was most similar to the actual 5-year observed survival rate (48.5%), when compared with cohort (43.6%) and complete (44.8%) analyses. When we compared survival between different 10-year periods (1990-99 and 1995-2004), period analysis demonstrated a greater difference than complete analysis (9.0 versus 3.9%). Subgroup analysis indicated that the survival improvement was determined by period analysis, and it was more pronounced for the age group <74 years and in Stages III-IV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed that period analysis demonstrates the most similar results to the actual observed survival and is, therefore, a useful method to derive precise cancer survival in gastric cancer. This information is useful to understand survival differences that are influenced by changing treatment strategy.

Declining rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in urban Shanghai: incidence trends in 1976-2005

In China, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates in several registry catchment populations are amongst the highest worldwide. The incidence rates in urban Shanghai were analyzed between 1976 and 2005 to describe and interpret the time trends. Age-specific and age-standardized rates were calculated and graphically presented. An age-period-cohort model was fitted to assess the effects of age at diagnosis, calendar period, and birth cohort on the changing HCC incidence rates. In total, 35,241 and 13,931 men and women were diagnosed with HCC during 1976-2005 in urban Shanghai. The age-standardized incidence rates in urban Shanghai were 33.9 per 10(5) among men and 11.4 per 10(5) among women in 1976-1980, but decreased in both sexes to 25.8 per 10(5) and 8.5 per 10(5), respectively by 2001-2005. Accelerating rates in birth cohorts born in the early-1930s and decelerating rates circa 1945 were observed in both sexes, with further accelerations noted in the late-1950s (in women) and early-1960s (in men). Given the parameterization, increases in risk of HCC were seen in successive male and female generations between 1900 and 1935, followed by a further increase among successive cohorts born around 1960, with a reduction in risk in the most recent generations. The incidence rates of HCC in urban Shanghai from 1976 to 2005 have declined in both sexes, with the complex but similar patterns observed in successive generations suggestive of a shared changing prevalence in risk factors in men and women, with a role possibly for HBV interventions reducing risk of HCC in cohorts born after 1960.

Increasing incidence in liver cancer in Canada, 1972-2006: Age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Our study aimed to assess 1) the temporal trends in incidence and mortality of liver cancer and 2) age-period-cohort effects on the incidence in Canada.

METHODS

We analyzed data obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry Database and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database. We first examined temporal trends by sex, age group, and birth cohort between 1972 and 2006. Three-year period rates and annual percentage change (APC) were calculated to compare the changes over the study period. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate underlying effects on the observed trends in incidence.

RESULTS

The overall age-adjusted incidence rates increased from 2.6 and 1.5 per 100 000 in 1972-74 to 6.5 (APC: 2.9) and 2.2 (APC: 1.2) per 100 000 in 2004-06 among males and females, respectively. The age-adjusted mortality rates increased from 3.3 and 2.0 per 100 000 in 1972-74 to 6.0 (APC: 2.3) and 2.6 (APC: 1.2) per 100 000 in 2004-06 among males and females, respectively. The incidence increased most rapidly in men aged 45-54 years (APC: 4.1) and women aged 65-74 years (APC: 1.7) over the period of study.

CONCLUSIONS

The age-period-cohort analysis suggests that birth-cohort effect is underlying the increase in incidence. While the exact reason for the increased incidence of liver cancer remains unknown, reported increase in HBV and HCV infections, and immigration from high-risk regions of the world may be important factors.

Dietary glycemic load and hepatocellular carcinoma with or without chronic hepatitis infection

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are the major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The association of diabetes mellitus with HCC suggests that dietary glycemic load (GL) may influence HCC risk. We have examined the association between dietary GL and HCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a hospital-based case-control study in Italy in 1999-2002, including 185 HCC cases and 412 controls who answered a validated food frequency questionnaire and provided blood samples. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using unconditional multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

We observed a positive association between GL and HCC overall, with an OR of 3.02 (95% CI 1.49-6.12) for the highest quintile of GL compared with the lowest and a significant trend. The OR among HCC cases with evidence of chronic infection with HBV and/or HCV was 3.25 (95% CI 1.46-7.22), while the OR among those with no evidence of infection was 2.45 (95% CI 0.69-8.64), with no significant trend. The association was not explained by the presence of cirrhosis or diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

High dietary GL is associated with increased risk for HCC. The positive association was most pronounced among HCC cases with HBV and/or HCV markers.

Epidemiology of viral hepatitis infections in an area of southern Italy with high incidence rates of liver cancer

Southern Italy shows the highest rates of liver cancer for Europe, mainly related to infection with hepatitis viruses. We thus described incidence rates of liver cancer and investigated prevalence and determinants of HCV and HBV infections in 4496 individuals randomly selected from the general population of the province of Naples. 7.5% was infected with HCV and 27.6% with HBV (2.2% was HBsAg-positive). Prevalence of both infections increased with age, 23.2% of those aged 65 years or older was HCV-positive and 47.9% were HBV-positive. Intravenous drug use (odds ratio (OR)=16.4 for anti-HCV and 4.7 for anti-HBc), history of blood transfusions (OR=2.8 and 1.5, respectively) and surgery, and household contacts with infected people (OR=2.1 and 1.6, respectively) increased risks for both infections. Sexual intercourse with HCV-positive individuals conveyed a 3-fold higher risk of HCV infection. This study quantified the spread of HCV and HBV in the population of southern Italy heavily affected by liver cancer.