Comprehensively assessing the drivers of future air quality in California

Exposure to ambient air pollutants, serum miRNA networks, lipid metabolism, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in young adults

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Ambient air pollution (AAP) exposure has been associated with altered blood lipids and liver fat in young adults. MicroRNAs regulate gene expression and may mediate these relationships. This work investigated associations between AAP exposure, serum microRNA networks, lipid profiles, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) risk in young adults.

METHODS

Participants were 170 young adults (17-22 years) from the Meta-AIR cohort of the Children's Health Study (CHS). Residential AAP exposure (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, 8-hour maximum O3, redox-weighted oxidative capacity [Oxwt]) was spatially interpolated from monitoring stations via inverse-distance-squared weighting. Fasting serum lipids were assayed. Liver fat was imaged by MRI and NAFLD was defined by ≥ 5.5% hepatic fat fraction. Serum microRNAs were measured via NanoString and microRNA networks were constructed by weighted gene correlation network analysis. The first principal component of each network represented its expression profile. Multivariable mixed effects regression models adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical covariates; baseline CHS town code was a random effect. Effects estimates are scaled to one standard deviation of exposure. Mediation analysis explored microRNA profiles as potential mediators of exposure-outcome associations. DIANA-mirPATH identified overrepresented gene pathways targeted by miRNA networks.

RESULTS

Prior-month Oxwt was associated with NAFLD (OR=3.45; p = 0.003) and inversely associated with microRNA Network A (β = -0.016; p = 0.026). Prior-year NO2 was associated with non-HDL-cholesterol (β = 7.13; p = 0.01) and inversely associated with miRNA Network A (β = -0.019; p = 0.022). Network A expression was inversely associated with NAFLD (OR=0.35; p = 0.010) and non-HDL-C (β = -6.94 mg/dL; p = 0.035). Network A members miR-199a/b-3p and miR-130a, which both target fatty acid synthase, mediated 21% of the association between prior-month Oxwt exposure with NAFLD (p = 0.048) and 23.3% of the association between prior-year NO2 exposure and non-HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.026), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to AAP may contribute to adverse lipid profiles and NAFLD risk among young adults via altered expression of microRNA profiles.

Machine learning with spatial interpolation techniques for constructing 2-dimensional ozone concentrations in Southern California during the COVID-19 shutdown

In this study, we combine machine learning and geospatial interpolations to create a two-dimensional high-resolution ozone concentration fields over the South Coast Air Basin for the entire year of 2020. Three spatial interpolation methods (bicubic, IDW, and ordinary kriging) were employed. The predicted ozone concentration fields were constructed using 15 building sites, and random forest regression was employed to test predictability of 2020 data based on input data from past years. Spatially interpolated ozone concentrations were evaluated at twelve sites that were independent of the actual spatial interpolations to find the most suitable method for SoCAB. Ordinary kriging interpolation had the best performance overall for 2020: concentrations were overestimated for Anaheim, Compton, LA North Main Street, LAX, Rubidoux, and San Gabriel sites and underestimated for Banning, Glendora, Lake Elsinore, and Mira Loma sites. The model performance improved from the West to the East, exhibiting better predictions for inland sites. The model is best at interpolating ozone concentrations inside the sampling region (bounded by the building sites), with R² ranging from 0.56 to 0.85 for those sites, as prediction deficiencies occurred at the periphery of the sampling region, with the lowest R² of 0.39 for Winchester. All the interpolation methods poorly predicted and underestimated ozone concentrations in Crestline during summer (up to 19 ppb). Poor performance for Crestline indicates that the site has a distribution air pollution levels independent from all other sites. Therefore, historical data from coastal and inland sites should not be used to predict ozone in Crestline using data-driven spatial interpolation approaches. The study demonstrates the utility of machine learning and geospatial techniques for evaluating air pollution levels during anomalous periods.

Unexpected deterioration of O3 pollution in the South Coast Air Basin of California: The role of meteorology and emissions

Tropospheric ozone (O₃) pollution has long been a prominent environmental threat due to its adverse impacts on vulnerable populations and ecosystems. In recent years, an unexpected increase in O₃ levels over the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California has been observed despite reduced precursor emissions and the driving factors behind this abnormal condition remain unclear. In this work, we combine ambient measurements, satellite data, and air quality modeling to investigate O₃ and precursor emission trends and explore the impacts of meteorological variability and emission changes on O₃ over the SoCAB from 2012 to 2020. Changes in O₃ trends were characterized by declining O₃ in 2012-2015, and increasing O₃ afterwards with the most extreme O₃ exceedances in 2020. Basin-wide increases of MDA8 O₃ concentrations over warm season were depicted between 2012 and 2020, with the most significant enhancements (5-10 ppb) observed in San Bernardino County. Persistent heatwaves and weak ventilation on consecutive days were closely correlated with O₃ exceedances (r² above 0.6) over inland SoCAB. While decreasing trends in NO_x (-4.1%/yr) and VOC emissions (-1.8%/yr) inferred from emission inventory and satellites during 2012-2020 resulted in a slow transition for O₃ sensitivity from VOCs-limited to NO_x-limited, model simulations performed with fixed meteorology indicate that unfavorable meteorological conditions could largely offset regulation benefits, with meteorology anomaly-induced monthly O₃ changes reaching 20 ppb (May 2020) and the deterioration of O₃ pollution in 2016, 2017, and 2020 was largely attributed to unfavorable meteorological conditions. Nevertheless, anthropogenic emission changes may act as the dominant factor in governing O₃ variations across the SoCAB when net effects of meteorology are neutral (typically 2018). This work provides a comprehensive assessment of O₃ pollution and contributes valuable insights into understanding the long-term changes of O₃ and precursors in guiding future regulation efforts in the SoCAB.

Decarbonization will lead to more equitable air quality in California

Air quality associated public health co-benefit may emerge from climate and energy policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the distribution of these co-benefits has not been carefully studied, despite the opportunity to tailor mitigation efforts so they achieve maximum benefits within socially and economically disadvantaged communities (DACs). Here, we quantify such health co-benefits from different long-term, low-carbon scenarios in California and their distribution in the context of social vulnerability. The magnitude and distribution of health benefits, including within impacted communities, is found to varies among scenarios which reduce economy wide GHG emissions by 80% in 2050 depending on the technology- and fuel-switching decisions in individual end-use sectors. The building electrification focused decarbonization strategy achieves ~15% greater total health benefits than the truck electrification focused strategy which uses renewable fuels to meet building demands. Conversely, the enhanced electrification of the truck sector is shown to benefit DACs more effectively. Such tradeoffs highlight the importance of considering environmental justice implications in the development of climate mitigation planning.

Air quality is found to be more equitable through two salient decarbonization pathways for California in 2050 with the relative justice of decarbonization scenarios quantified at the neighborhood level and the tradeoffs between pathways evaluated.

Benefits of near-zero freight: The air quality and health impacts of low-NOx compressed natural gas trucks

The use of low-NOx compressed natural gas (CNG) medium-duty vehicles (MDVs) and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) has the potential to significantly reduce NO_x emissions and yield improvements in regional air quality. However, the extent of air quality improvement depends on many factors including future levels of vehicle deployment, the evolution of emissions from other sources, and meteorology. An analysis of the impacts requires modeling the atmosphere to account for both primary and secondary air pollutants, and the use of health impact assessment tools to map air quality changes into quantifiable metrics of human health. Here, we quantify and compare the air quality and health impacts associated with the deployment of low-NO_x CNG engines to power future MDV and HDV fleets in California relative to both a business-as-usual and a more advanced fleet composition. The results project that reductions in summer ground-level ozone could reach 13 ppb when compared to a baseline fleet of diesel and gasoline HDV and MDV and could reach 6 ppb when compared to a cleaner fleet that includes some zero-emission vehicles and fuels. Similarly, for all CNG cases considered reductions in PM_2.5 are predicted to range from 1.2 ug/m³ to 2.7 ug/m³ for a summer episode and from 3.1 ug/m³ to approximately 7.8 ug/m³ for a winter episode. These improvements yield short-term health benefits equivalent to $47 to $56 million in summer and $38 to $43 million in winter during episodes conducive to poor air quality. Additionally, the use of zero emission vehicle options such as battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks could achieve approximately 25% to 31% higher benefits for an equivalent fleet penetration level due to the additional emission reductions achieved.Implications: The paper provides a quantitative estimate of the air quality and human health benefits that can be achieved through the use of novel compressed natural gas engines (i.e., low-NO_x CNG) in medium- and heavy-duty vehicles and provide a comparison with zero emission vehicles. Thus, our findings will provide support for policy development seeking to transform the trucking sector to meet clean air and climate goals given the current struggle policymakers have with selecting between alternative truck technologies due to variance in factors like cost and technical maturity.

Health Benefits in California of Strengthening the Fine Particulate Matter Standards

The Clean Air Act requires the United States Environmental Protection Agency to review routinely the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, including fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). A non-governmental Independent Particulate Matter Review Panel recently concluded that the current PM_2.5 standards do not protect public health adequately and recommended revising the daily standard from 35 to 25-30 μg/m³ and the annual standard from 12 to 8-10 μg/m³. To assess the public health implications of adopting the PM_2.5 standards proposed by the panel, the health benefits are quantified from their implementation based on both current (observed) and future (simulated) air quality data for California. The findings indicate that strengthening the standards would provide significant public health benefits valued at $42-$149 billion. Additionally, the stronger standards are shown to benefit environmental justice via health savings that are allocated more within environmentally and socioeconomically disadvantaged communities.

Effects of Anthropogenic and Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds on Los Angeles Air Quality

Assessing the role of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in production of ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is especially important in light of ongoing policy goals. Here, we estimated the ozone formation potential (OFP) and SOA formation potential (SOAP) of anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions to evaluate (1) anthropogenic VOCs and associated sectors that dominate OFP and SOAP and (2) the potential impacts of enhanced biogenic VOCs from urban greening programs on air quality in Los Angeles county. In the present-day scenario, ethylene had the largest OFP followed by m & p-xylene, toluene, propylene, and formaldehyde. The top five contributors to SOAP were toluene, mineral spirits, benzene, heptadecane, and hexadecane. Mobile and solvent sources were the dominant VOC sources for both OFP and SOAP. The potential increases in biogenic VOC emissions due to future urban greening had significant effects on urban air quality that offset the benefits of reducing anthropogenic VOC emissions. This study demonstrates that urban greening programs in Los Angeles county, and likely other cities as well, need to account for both anthropogenic and biogenic VOC contributions to secondary pollution, and greening cities should consider using vegetation types with low VOC emissions to avoid further degradation to urban air quality.

How will air quality effects on human health, crops and ecosystems change in the future?

Future air quality will be driven by changes in air pollutant emissions, but also changes in climate. Here, we review the recent literature on future air quality scenarios and projected changes in effects on human health, crops and ecosystems. While there is overlap in the scenarios and models used for future projections of air quality and climate effects on human health and crops, similar efforts have not been widely conducted for ecosystems. Few studies have conducted joint assessments across more than one sector. Improvements in future air quality effects on human health are seen in emission reduction scenarios that are more ambitious than current legislation. Larger impacts result from changing particulate matter (PM) abundances than ozone burdens. Future global health burdens are dominated by changes in the Asian region. Expected future reductions in ozone outside of Asia will allow for increased crop production. Reductions in PM, although associated with much higher uncertainty, could offset some of this benefit. The responses of ecosystems to air pollution and climate change are long-term, complex, and interactive, and vary widely across biomes and over space and time. Air quality and climate policy should be linked or at least considered holistically, and managed as a multi-media problem. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Driving Forces of Air Pollution in Ulaanbaatar City Between 2005 and 2015: An Index Decomposition Analysis

Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, is facing serious air pollution challenges—especially during the cold and long winter months—mainly due to fossil fuel combustion. This study investigates the socioeconomic drivers of the sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration changes in Ulaanbaatar between 2005 and 2015 by applying the index decomposition analysis (IDA) method. Five socio-economic driving forces are considered in the decomposition analysis. All the driving forces contributed to more air pollution concentration changes in 2015 than in 2005, despite the decreasing trends of decomposition results for the period of 2010–2015. In general, economic growth, pollution intensity, and energy intensity significantly contributed to the changes of air pollutant concentrations, while energy structure and population growth had marginal effects. Finally, appropriate policy recommendations are proposed to the local government so that they can initiate feasible policies to effectively reduce air pollution, protect human health, and respond to climate change in Ulaanbaatar.

Analysis of Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Driving Forces of Air Quality in the Northern Coastal Comprehensive Economic Zone, China

Comprehensive analysis of air quality is essential to underpin knowledge-based air quality conservation policies and funding decisions by governments and managers. In this paper, air quality change characteristics for the Northern Coastal Comprehensive Economic Zone from 2008 to 2018 were analyzed using air quality indices. The spatio-temporal pattern of air quality was identified using centroid migration, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS). A spatial econometric model was established to confirm the natural and anthropogenic factors affecting air quality. Results showed that air pollution decreased significantly. PM2.5, PM10, and O3 were the primary pollutants. The air quality exhibited an inverted U-shaped trend from January to December, with the highest quality being observed in summer and the lowest during winter. Spatially, the air quality showed an increasing trend from inland to the coast and from north to south, with significant spatial autocorrelation and clustering. Population, energy consumption, temperature, and atmospheric pressure had significant negative impacts on air quality, while wind speed had a positive impact. This study offers an efficient and effective method to evaluate air quality change. The research provides important scientific information necessary for developing future air pollution prevention and control.