Co-benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on air quality and health till 2030 in China

Co-benefits of wind and solar power deployments for air pollutants and carbon emissions reduction in Guangdong Province of China

Wind and solar power are widely regarded as key pillars of clean transition owing to their promising development potential. Systematically evaluating the environmental benefits of wind and solar power deployments is essential as it can enhance their social acceptance and support sustainable development. In this study, we first evaluated emissions reduction driven by wind and solar power deployments in 2022 in Guangdong Province, China's most populous province with the highest electricity demand. Then, with atmospheric transport model, we assessed impacts on air quality and CO2 concentrations due to emissions reduction. Finally, we monetized environmental co-benefits by quantifying health benefits and carbon reduction benefits. Our results indicated wind and solar power deployments significantly reduced air pollutants and CO2 emission from the power sector, with the extent of reductions jointly determined by regional renewable generation and the emission intensity of displaced thermal power. Emissions reduction contributed to improved air quality and lower CO2 concentrations, with provincial average CAQI and surface-level CO2 concentrations decreasing by 0.84 % and 0.53 ppmv, respectively. PM2.5 and O3 pollution mitigation avoided 388 (95 % CI 290-485) premature deaths, delivering $268 million health benefits. In parallel, CO2 emissions were reduced by 2.53 × 104 kt, yielding $141 million carbon reduction benefits. Altogether, these environmental co-benefits were equivalent to $12.07/MWh, covering 16-45 % of the LCOE for wind and solar power, which underlined the out-of-market societal benefits. This study offered valuable insights for policymakers to aim at optimizing clean transition policies for achieving integrated environmental, health, and climate objectives.

Contribution of Nitrogen Management to Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: A Case Study of China

Developing collaborative and effective strategies for reducing reactive nitrogen (Nr) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is key to maintaining human activities within planetary boundaries. Nitrogen (N) management not only promotes Nr emission and pollution control but also influences GHG emission sources. Therefore, we constructed a nitrogen-carbon (N-C) coupled model to link N metabolism with GHG emission inventory at the national scale, revealing the contributions of N management for synergistic GHG emission reduction. China was selected as the case study. The results showed that from 2015 to 2020, the N-metabolism system was associated with 1510 Mt carbon dioxide (CO2)eq yr-1 of GHG emissions, including CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and C sequestration, accounting for 13.5% of the national level. Adopting N-C coupled strategies could synergistically reduce N-associated GHG emissions by 42.1% (607.8 Mt CO2 eq), suggesting that the Nr-GHG comitigation effects have been considerably underestimated. Specifically, the most effective synergistic strategies were balanced N fertilizer use, manure management, food loss, and waste reduction, and garbage sorting, which may become a priority for future N-C synergistic emission reduction.

Response of ozone to current and future emission scenarios and the resultant human health impact in Southeast Asia

Recent evidence has shown the increasing trend of tropospheric ozone (O3) in Southeast Asia. Mitigating O3 pollution in Southeast Asia has become important and urgent. While the nonlinear O3 chemistry makes policy-making complicated, the O3 formation regime and O3 response to different emissions have rarely been assessed in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the O3-attributable health impacts in Southeast Asia under future emission scenarios have yet to be quantified. Herein, we applied the regional chemical transport model with the High-order Decoupled Direct Method (HDDM) to simulate the O3 sensitivity to precursor emissions in Southeast Asia, and then projected the health benefits under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) emission scenarios, providing policy suggestions for mitigating O3 pollution and its health impacts. Our results show O3 in urban areas (i.e., Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh City) was sensitive to both nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions, and synergistic NOx and VOCs control is thus essential. Suburban, rural, and sea areas were under a NOx-limited regime, suggesting the high effectiveness of controlling NOx over these areas. Compared with the health impacts in baseline year (2019), the annual total O3-attributed premature mortality under the business-as-usual emission scenario (SSP245) is projected to reduce by 22 k (47 %) by 2050 due to the future NOx emission reductions in power generation, industrial process, and transportation. Most of the health benefits will happen in Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. The sustainable emission scenario (SSP126) is projected to avoid 36 k annual O3-attributed premature mortalities by 2050 due to its more stringent NOx reductions in shipping, transportation, and industrial process. SSP370 and SSP585 are projected to increase the O3-attributable premature mortality by up to 33 k because of the rising NOx emissions.

Exploring synergistic evolution of carbon emissions and air pollutants and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of influencing factors in Chinese cities

The acceleration of urbanization has significantly exacerbated climate change due to excessive anthropogenic carbon emissions and air pollutants. Based on data from 281 prefecture-level cities in China between 2015 and 2021. The spatiotemporal co-evolution of urban carbon emissions and air pollutants was analyzed through map visualization and kernel density estimation, revealing non-equilibrium and heterogeneity. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) multiscale geographically weighted regression models(MGWR) and SHAP theory from game theory were employed to deeply investigate the disparities in relevance, spatial heterogeneity, and multiscale fluctuations of carbon emissions and air pollution. The main results are summarized as follows: (1) Between 2015 and 2018, CO2 emissions exhibited significant fluctuations, while SO2 and PM2.5 concentrations decreased markedly. (2) The XGBoost-SHAP model identified seven key driving factors, demonstrating high precision, the SHAP model is used to explain the model and reveal the influence of driving factors on carbon emissions. (3) The concentrations of CO2, SO2, and PM2.5 were positively correlated, the influence of each factor exhibited significant spatiotemporal differences, with varying directions of fluctuation across different regions. Thus, the symbiotic relationship between carbon emissions and air pollutants can inform decision-making for regional planning and sustainable urban development.

Emission reduction strategies and health: a systematic review on the tools and methods to assess co-benefits

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to review the current literature on the health co-benefits of emission reduction strategies and the methods and tools available to assess them.

DESIGN

Systematic review conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect and GreenFILE were searched from January of 2017 to March of 2023.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included original, peer-reviewed journal articles that described emission (ambient air pollutant and greenhouse gases) reduction strategies and assessed their health co-benefits.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent reviewers employed standardised methods to search, screen and code the included studies, documenting their findings in an Excel spreadsheet.

RESULTS

From 6687 articles, 82 were included. Most studies show that emissions reduction strategies improve air quality, reducing mortality and morbidity. Health risk assessment and health impact assessment are common, though procedures may cause confusion. About 33% used established models like the integrated exposure-response and global exposure mortality model. Out of all studies, 16% of them used Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition. Only 17.8% carried out cost-benefit analyses, but these show economic worth in investing in emission reduction strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Emission reduction strategies significantly enhance human health, with potential co-benefits offsetting intervention costs, which can be an incentive for action in low and middle-income countries. This review emphasises investing in cost-benefit analyses and research, particularly in regions with limited studies on emission reduction and health co-benefits. It provides decision-makers insights into selecting assessment methods and underscores the ongoing need for model and tool evaluation.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022332480.

An estimation of future county-level cement production and associated air pollutant emissions in China through artificial neural networks

Cement production and its air pollutant and carbon dioxides (CO2) emissions in China will be relocated greatly as a joint effect of diverse development of industrial economy and implementation of environmental policies for different regions. The future pathway and spatial pattern of emissions are important for policy making of air quality improvement and CO2 emission abatement, as well as coordinating regional development. In this study, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict cement production at the county level and to calculate the associated emissions of air pollutants and CO2 at the county level till 2060. Results show that the cement production will decline from 2327 million metric tons (Mt) in 2015 to 704 Mt. in 2060 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1 (SSP1). Counties closer to provincial capital will experience greater retirement of cement industry. Likewise, the emissions of air pollutants and CO2 will experience a steady downward trend driven by the declining cement production and the improvement of pollution control technologies. There will be a more significant regional heterogeneity in the reduction of production and emissions at city level compared to the province level. With the clearance for nearly two-thirds of counties, future cement production and emissions will be more intensively distributed in a few cities. The shares of emissions in southwestern regions will grow from 2015 to 2060 while those of eastern regions will continue decreasing. The comparison between the changing spatial distributions of emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) indicates a positive effect of existing policies in reconciling regional economic development and air pollution controls. The outcome could support the analyses on the impact of industrial development on air quality and public health, and the method can be applied widely for other industrial sectors for a more comprehensive understanding of future emission relocation.

Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China

IMPORTANCE

Climate change mitigation policies aimed at limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would bring substantial health co-benefits by directly alleviating climate change or indirectly reducing air pollution. As one of the largest developing countries and GHG emitter globally, China's carbon-peaking and carbon neutrality goals would lead to substantial co-benefits on global environment and therefore on human health. This review summarized the key findings and gaps in studies on the impact of China's carbon mitigation strategies on human health.

HIGHLIGHTS

There is a wide consensus that limiting the temperature rise well below 2 °C would markedly reduce the climate-related health impacts compared with high emission scenario, although heat-related mortalities, labor productivity reduction rates, and infectious disease morbidities would continue increasing over time as temperature rises. Further, hundreds of thousands of air pollutant-related mortalities (mainly due to PM2.5 and O3) could be avoided per year compared with the reference scenario without climate policy. Carbon reduction policies can also alleviate morbidities due to acute exposure to PM2.5. Further research with respect to morbidities attributed to nonoptimal temperature and air pollution, and health impacts attributed to precipitation and extreme weather events under current carbon policy in China or its equivalent in other developing countries is needed to improve our understanding of the disease burden in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides up-to-date evidence of potential health co-benefits under Chinese carbon policies and highlights the importance of considering these co-benefits into future climate policy development in both China and other nations endeavoring carbon reductions.

Identifying Key Sources for Air Pollution and CO2 Emission Co-control in China

China is confronting the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, mandating the co-control of air pollutants and CO2 emissions from their shared sources. Here we identify key sources for co-control that prioritize the mitigation of PM2.5-related health burdens, given the homogeneous impacts of CO2 emissions from various sources. By applying an integrated analysis framework that consists of a detailed emission inventory, a chemical transport model, a multisource fused dataset, and epidemiological concentration-response functions, we systematically evaluate the contribution of emissions from 390 sources (30 provinces and 13 socioeconomic sectors) to PM2.5-related health impacts and CO2 emissions, as well as the marginal health benefits of CO2 abatement across China. The estimated source-specific contributions exhibit substantial disparities, with the marginal benefits varying by 3 orders of magnitude. The rural residential, transportation, metal, and power and heating sectors emerge as pivotal sources for co-control, with regard to their relatively large marginal benefits or the sectoral total benefits. In addition, populous and heavily industrialized provinces such as Shandong and Henan are identified as the key regions for co-control. Our study highlights the significance of incorporating health benefits into formulating air pollution and carbon co-control strategies for improving the overall social welfare.

Health-Oriented Emission Control Strategy of Energy Utilization and Its Co-CO2 Benefits: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Reducing air pollutants and CO2 emissions from energy utilization is crucial for achieving the dual objectives of clean air and carbon neutrality in China. Thus, an optimized health-oriented strategy is urgently needed. Herein, by coupling a CO2 and air pollutants emission inventory with response surface models for PM2.5-associated mortality, we shed light on the effectiveness of protecting human health and co-CO2 benefit from reducing fuel-related emissions and generate a health-oriented strategy for the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Results reveal that oil consumption is the primary contributor to fuel-related PM2.5 pollution and premature deaths in the YRD. Significantly, curtailing fuel consumption in transportation is the most effective measure to alleviate the fuel-related PM2.5 health impact, which also has the greatest cobenefits for CO2 emission reduction on a regional scale. Reducing fuel consumption will achieve substantial health improvements especially in eastern YRD, with nonroad vehicle emission reductions being particularly impactful for health protection, while on-road vehicles present the greatest potential for CO2 reductions. Scenario analysis confirms the importance of mitigating oil consumption in the transportation sector in addressing PM2.5 pollution and climate change.

Co-benefits and influencing factors exploration of air pollution and carbon reduction in China: Based on marginal abatement costs

This study addresses the pressing need for cost-effective emission reduction strategies that maximize co-benefits in terms of air pollution and carbon emissions. Our research contributes to the literature by accurately measuring these co-benefits, thereby facilitating their prompt realization in different regions. We employ an input-output framework that integrates carbon emissions and air pollution, allowing us to calculate marginal abatement costs using the shadow price of undesired output. Through this approach, we quantify the co-benefits and analyze the factors influencing them at both spatiotemporal and factor levels using spatial kernel density and geographical detectors. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) under joint emission reduction efforts, we observe average annual reduction rates of 6.46% for marginal pollution and 6.10% for carbon reduction costs. Importantly, we document an increase in co-benefits from 0.50 to 0.86, characterized by an initial fluctuation followed by a linear increase. (2) the marginal cost difference for carbon emission and pollution reduction in western China was 179.45 and 155.08 respectively, compared to 321.51 and 124.70 in the Northeast, highlighting the crucial role of regional differences in shaping co-benefit outcomes. (3) we identify a negative spatial spillover effect between provinces, which diminishes over time, leading to heterogeneous effects when local provincial co-benefits exceed a threshold of 0.9. (4) during the adjustment period, we find that the industrial structure exerts significant single and interactive effects on co-benefits. Additionally, we highlight the critical role of environmental governance investment and government intervention as drivers of co-benefits in the current era. By offering the quantification of co-benefits under the marginal abatement costs, our study provides valuable scientific insights for planning and implementing effective synergy strategies.

Impact of comprehensive air pollution control policies on six criteria air pollutants and acute myocardial infarction morbidity, Weifang, China: A quasi-experimental study

Comprehensive air pollution control policies may reduce pollutant emissions. However, the impact on disease morbidity of the change for the concentration of air pollutants following the policies has been insufficiently studied. We aim to assess the impact of comprehensive air pollution control policies on the levels of six criteria air pollutants and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) morbidity in Weifang, China. This study performed an interrupted time series analysis. The linear model with spline terms and generalized additive quasi-Poisson model were used to estimate the immediate change from 2016 to 2019 in the daily concentration of six air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and, CO) and AMI incident cases (Age ≥35) associated with the implementation of air pollution control policies in Weifang, respectively. After the implementation of air pollution control policies, air quality in Weifang had been improved. Specifically, the daily concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and, CO immediately decreased by 27.9 % (95 % CI: 6.6 % to 44.3 %), 32.9 % (95 % CI: 17.5 % to 45.5 %), 14.6 % (95 % CI: 0.4 % to 26.8 %), and 33.9 % (95 % CI: 22.0 % to 44.0 %), respectively. In addition, the policies implementation was also associate with the immediate decline in the AMI morbidity (-6.5 %, 95 % CI: -10.4 % to -2.3 %). And subgroup analyses indicate that the health effects of the policy intervention were only observed in female (-9.4 %, 95 % CI: -14.4 % to -4.2 %) and those aged ≥65 years (-10.5 %, 95 % CI: -14.6 % to -6.2 %). During the final 20 months of the study period, the policy intervention was estimated to prevent 1603 (95 % CI: 574 to 2587) cases of incident AMI in Weifang. Our results provide strong rationale that the policy intervention significantly reduced ambient pollutant concentrations and AMI morbidity, which highlighted the importance for a comprehensive and rigorous air pollution control policy in regions with severe air pollution.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors in China

The Annual Report on Cardiovascular Health and Diseases in China (2022) intricate landscape of cardiovascular health in China. This section dissects cardiovascular risk factors in China which including hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, metabolic syndrome and air pollution. Hypertension prevalence has steadily increased in China, with efforts to control it facing challenges in achieving optimal rates, especially in rural areas. Interventions like salt substitutes and intensive blood pressure control show promise but need improvement. Abnormal lipid levels, indicative of dyslipidemia, have risen significantly, posing a risk for cardiovascular diseases. Despite efforts, many patients struggle to achieve target lipid levels, necessitating improved treatment strategies. Both type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus affect millions of adults in China, with long-term complications adding to the disease burden. Early intervention and effective management are crucial to mitigate its impact. Prevalent among older adults, chronic kidney disease is associated with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and cardiovascular diseases, necessitating comprehensive management approaches. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome, characterized by a cluster of risk factors, has increased in both adults and adolescents, calling for lifestyle modifications and public health interventions. Ambient and household air pollution remain significant environmental risk factors, despite some improvements in air quality. Continued efforts to reduce emissions are essential for mitigating associated health risks. Addressing these risk factors requires a multifaceted approach, including public health initiatives, policy interventions, and individual-level strategies to promote healthy lifestyles and reduce environmental exposures. Surveillance and research efforts are crucial for monitoring trends and developing effective strategies to lessen the burden of cardiovascular diseases in China.

Plants' emission behaviors under dual control of pollutant concentration and quantity

Quantity-based and concentration-based limits are two common environmental permitting approaches utilized by government worldwide in environmental management. While existing literature is still unambiguous about roles played by quantity-based versus concentration-based limits in environmental management, it becomes evident that relying exclusively on concentration-based or quantity-based limits to control plant emissions may not necessarily result in improved environmental quality. This paper leverages a unique opportunity arising from a recent reform in China's Pollutant Emission Permit System (PEPS) initiated in 2016 to analyze how the introduction of quantity-based limits in addition to concentration-based limits through the PEPS reform impact emissions at the plant level. Utilizing a unique plant-level continuous emission monitoring system data collected from Shaanxi Province (located in western China), the paper finds a significant reduction in air pollutant emissions as a result of the PEPS reform (nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 39%, sulfur dioxide (SO2) by 15% and particulate matter (PM) by 13%). The heterogeneity analyses show emission reductions in plants differ across those with varying quantity limits specified in their permits, distinct emission ratios and diverse ownership structures. Furthermore, plants that fall under the classified management system with more stringent regulations imposed, especially those operating in high-pollution sectors, situated within industrial parks, or classified as large-sized plants, attain higher pollutant quantity limits. Findings of the paper carry important implications for effective environmental management, particularly within developing countries, and shed some light on carbon emission reduction policies in China.

Exploring the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of carbon emissions and air pollution in Chinese cities

Based on data from 335 cities in China, this study employs the standard deviation ellipse method to portray unbalanced and differential spatiotemporal evolution patterns of environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements. A logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis and in-depth discussion are carried out to disclose the main driving factors and underlying reasons for the differences. Decoupling trends exist among carbon emissions, gross domestic product (GDP) and population in terms of their gravity center migrations. The standard deviation ellipse direction of carbon emissions gradually changed from 'northeast‒southwest' to 'northwest‒southeast', and the standard deviation ellipse areas of carbon emissions and air pollution continuously expanded over time; at the same time, that of GDP contracted. Economic growth has always been the main driver of carbon emissions and air pollution nationally, but its role has weakened. Moreover, decreases in the energy intensity and carbon and pollution intensities are the main factors contributing to emissions reductions. Differentiated spatiotemporal economic structure evolution, regional heterogeneities in the energy intensity and efficiency, and cross-region power energy transmissions are identified as the underlying reasons for the unbalanced spatiotemporal patterns of the environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements. Based on these findings, policy suggestions can be made to address the imbalances and promote carbon mitigation, air quality improvement and high-quality social-economic development at the city level.

Socioeconomic driving forces behind air polluting emissions in Mexico

Air pollution is one of the most severe environmental problems that Mexico is currently facing. The objective of this paper is to quantify the most relevant socioeconomic driving forces behind air polluting emissions and, more specifically, 7 local pollutants in Mexico. We do so in a multilevel version of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model that accounts for the spatial heterogeneity at the municipal level across the country. The results show that the most relevant variables to determine the emissions of atmospheric pollutants are the population, the harvested area and the number of cars, while technological development helps to mitigate such emissions. The ecological elasticities are, in all cases, smaller than one. Our purpose is to provide quantitative information about these socioeconomic driving forces of air deterioration as a basis to establish some recommendations for environmental policy decision-making.

Spatial and temporal characteristics analysis and prediction model of PM2.5 concentration based on SpatioTemporal-Informer model

The primary cause of hazy weather is PM2.5, and forecasting PM2.5 concentrations can aid in managing and preventing hazy weather. This paper proposes a novel spatiotemporal prediction model called SpatioTemporal-Informer (ST-Informer) in response to the shortcomings of spatiotemporal prediction models commonly used in studies for long-input series prediction. The ST-Informer model implements parallel computation of long correlations and adds an independent spatiotemporal embedding layer to the original Informer model. The spatiotemporal embedding layer captures the complex dynamic spatiotemporal correlations among the input information. In addition, the ProbSpare Self-Attention mechanism in this model can focus on extracting important contextual information of spatiotemporal data. The ST-Informer model uses weather and air pollutant concentration data from numerous stations as its input data. The outcomes of the trials indicate that (1) The ST-Informer model can sharply capture the peaks and sudden changes in PM2.5 concentrations. (2) Compared to the current models, the ST-Informer model shows better prediction performance while maintaining high-efficiency prediction [Formula: see text]. (3) The ST-Informer model has universal applicability, and the model was applied to the concentration of other pollutants prediction with good results.

Substantial short- and long-term health effect due to PM2.5 and the constituents even under future emission reductions in China

Heavy pollution events of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) frequently occur in China, seriously affecting the human health. However, how meteorological factors and anthropogenic emissions affect PM_2.5 and the major constituents, as well as the subsequent health effect, remains unclear. Here, based on regional climate and air quality models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), the PM_2.5 and major constituents in China at present and mid-century under the carbon neutral scenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)1-2.6 are simulated. Due to anthropogenic emission reduction, concentrations of PM_2.5 and the constituents decrease substantially in SSP1-2.6. The long-term exposure premature deaths at present are 2.23 million per year in mainland China, which is projected to increase by 76 % under SSP1-2.6 despite emission reduction, primarily attributable to aging which strikingly offsets the effect of air quality improvement. The number of annual premature deaths resulting from short-term exposure is 228,104 in mainland China at present, which is projected to decrease in the future. Using North China Plain as an example, we identify that among the major constituents of PM_2.5, organic carbon leads to the most short-term exposure deaths considering the largest exposure-response coefficient. Regarding the abnormally meteorological conditions, we find, relative to low relative humidity (RH) and non-stagnation, the compound events, defined as concurrence of high RH and atmospheric stagnation, exhibit an amplified role inducing larger premature deaths compared to the additive effect of the individual event of high RH and atmospheric stagnation. This nonlinear effect occurs at both present and future, but diminished in future due to emission reductions. Our study highlights the importance of considering both the long- and short-term premature deaths associated with PM_2.5 and the constituents, as well as the critical effect of extreme weather events.

An integrated view of correlated emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in China

BACKGROUND

Air pollution in China has raised great concerns due to its adverse effects on air quality, human health, and climate. Emissions of air pollutants (APs) are inherently linked with CO₂ emissions through fossil-energy consumption. Knowledge of the characteristics of APs and CO₂ emissions and their relationships is fundamentally important in the pursuit of co-benefits in addressing air quality and climate issues in China. However, the linkages and interactions between APs and CO₂ in China are not well understood.

RESULTS

Here, we conducted an ensemble study of six bottom-up inventories to identify the underlying drivers of APs and CO₂ emissions growth and to explore their linkages in China. The results showed that, during 1980-2015, the power and industry sectors contributed 61-79% to China's overall emissions of CO₂, NO_x, and SO₂. In addition, the residential and industrial sectors were large emitters (77-85%) of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, CO, BC, and OC. The emissions of CH₄, N₂O and NH₃ were dominated by the agriculture sector (46-82%) during 1980-2015, while the share of CH₄ emissions in the energy sector increased since 2010. During 1980-2015, APs and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from residential sources generally decreased over time, while the transportation sector increased its impact on recent emissions, particularly for NO_x and NMVOC. Since implementation of stringent pollution control measures and accompanying technological improvements in 2013, China has effectively limited pollution emissions (e.g., growth rates of -10% per year for PM and -20% for SO₂) and slowed down the increasing trend of carbon emissions from the power and industrial sectors. We also found that areas with high emissions of CO, NO_x, NMVOC, and SO₂ also emitted large amounts of CO₂, which demonstrates the possible common sources of APs and GHGs. Moreover, we found significant correlations between CO₂ and APs (e.g., NO_x, CO, SO₂, and PM) emissions in the top 5% high-emitting grid cells, with more than 60% common grid cells during 2010-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

We found significant correlation in spatial and temporal aspects for CO₂, and NO_x, CO, SO₂, and PM emissions in China. We targeted sectorial and spatial APs and GHGs emission hot-spots, which help for management and policy-making of collaborative reductions of them. This comprehensive analysis over 6 datasets improves our understanding of APs and GHGs emissions in China during the period of rapid industrialization from 1980 to 2015. This study helps elucidate the linkages between APs and CO₂ from an integrated perspective, and provides insights for future synergistic emissions reduction.

Allocating capital-associated CO2 emissions along the full lifespan of capital investments helps diffuse emission responsibility

Capital assets such as machinery and infrastructure contribute substantially to CO₂ emissions over their lifetime. Unique features of capital assets such as their long durability complicate the assignment of capital-associated CO₂ emissions to final beneficiaries. Whereas conventional approaches allocate emissions required to produce capital assets to the year of formation, we propose an alternative perspective through allocating required emissions from the production of assets over their entire lifespans. We show that allocating CO₂ emissions embodied in capital assets over time relieves emission responsibility for the year of formation, with 25‒46% reductions from conventional emission accounts. This temporal allocation, although virtual, is important for assessing the equity of CO₂ emissions across generations due to the inertia of capital assets. To re-allocate emission responsibilities to the future, we design three capital investment scenarios with different investment purposes until 2030. Overall, the existing capital in 2017 will still carry approximately 10% responsibilities of China's CO₂ emissions in 2030, and could reach more than 40% for capital-intensive service sectors.

Membrane-based carbon capture: Recent progress, challenges, and their role in achieving the sustainable development goals

The rapid growth in the consumption of fossil fuels resulted in climate change and severe health issues. Among the different proposed methods to control climate change, carbon capture technologies are the best choice in the current stage. In this study, the various membrane technologies used for carbon capture and their impact on achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) are discussed. Membrane-based carbon capture processes in pre-combustion and post-combustion, which are known as membrane gas separation (MGS) and membrane contactor (MC), respectively, along with the process of fabrication and the different limitations that hinder their performances are discussed. Additionally, the 17 SDGs, where each representing a crucial topic in the current global task of a sustainable future, that are impacted by membrane-based carbon capture technologies are discussed. Membrane-based carbon capture technologies showed to have mixed impacts on different SDGs, varying in intensity and usefulness. It was found that the membrane-based carbon capture technologies had mostly influenced SDG 7 by enhancement in the zero-emission production, SDG 9 by providing 38-42% cost savings compared to liquid absorption, SDG 3 through reducing pollution and particulate matter emissions by 23%, and SDG 13, with SDG 13 being the most positively influenced by membrane-based carbon capture technologies, as they significantly reduce the CO₂ emissions and have high CO₂ capture yields (80-90%), thus supporting the objectives of SDG 13 in combatting climate change.

Spatiotemporal variation of PM2.5-related preterm birth in China and India during 1990-2019 and implications for emission controls

Preterm birth is the leading threat to neonatal health. The variation of PM_2.5-associated preterm birth in China and India from 1990 through 2019 was estimated in this study. Meanwhile, four mitigation scenarios were proposed, and the corresponding PM_2.5-related preterm birth was projected for 2030. Owing to differences in emission control policies and the effects of various factors (e.g., differences in population-control policies), the PM_2.5 concentration and PM_2.5-associated preterm birth in the two countries presented disparate spatiotemporal characteristics and variation trends during 1990-2019. The 30-year average of annual PM_2.5-associated preterm birth in India was 1018 (95% confidence interval, 718-1289) thousand, which was much larger than in China (280 [196-358] thousand). To fight air pollution, China launched several control strategies in the past two decades, and the nationwide maternal exposure risk dramatically decreased after 2010. In contrast, India's air-pollution control measures and policies have not effectively mitigated the nationwide PM_2.5 pollution. Under current mitigation measures and policies, the projected decrease in maternal exposure risk by 2030 is greater for China than India, and the scope for controlling air pollutant emissions and reducing maternal exposure risk is much large for India. The results of all four scenarios revealed that the annual PM_2.5-associated preterm birth in the two countries is likely to decrease in the future. In particular, if China and India implement more robust emission control strategies than those currently, the number of associated preterm birth is projected to be more than 50% lower in 2030 compared with 2019 rates.

Air quality and health benefits of increasing carbon mitigation tech-innovation in China

Most studies on the short-term local benefits of carbon mitigation technologies on air quality improvement and health focus on specific technologies such as biofuels or carbon sequestration technologies, while ignoring the overall role of the growing scale of low-carbon technologies. Based on STIRPAT model and EKC hypothesis, this paper takes 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016 as research samples. We builded the panel double fixed effect model to empirical analysis of climate change on carbon mitigation tech-innovation suppressing the influence of haze pollution, on this basis, the mediating effect model was used to explore the mediation function of industrial structure and energy structure. Meanwhile, we drawed on the existing studies on air quality and health benefits, and quantify the co-benefits of carbon mitigation tech-innovation on health through the equivalent substitution formula. It shows that a 1% increase in the number of low-carbon patent applications can reduce haze pollution by 0.066%. According to this estimate, to 2029, China's carbon mitigation tech-innovation could reduce PM2.5 concentration to 15 μg/m³ preventing 5.597 million premature deaths. Moreover, carbon mitigation tech-innovation can also indirectly inhibit haze pollution by triggering more systematic economic structure changes such as energy and industrial structure. Additionally, we found that the role of gray tech-innovation (GT) related to improving the efficiency of fossil energy is stronger than that of clean technology (CT) related to the use of renewable energy. This suggests that for a large economy such as China, where coal is still the dominant source of energy consumption, the short-term local benefits of improving air quality and health through the use of gray tech-innovation to improve energy and industrial structure are still important to balance the cost of carbon mitigation.

Emission characteristics and inventory of volatile organic compounds from the Chinese cement industry based on field measurements

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are major precursors of ozone (O₃) and secondary organic aerosols (SOA), which degrade air quality and pose a serious risk to human health and ecological systems. Previous studies on the emission characteristics of VOCs have predominantly focused on petrochemical and solvent-using sources, while localized studies on the cement industry are scarce in China. Field measurements for four cement plants were carried out in this study to investigate the emission levels, source profiles, and secondary pollutant generation potential of 98 VOCs species emitted from rotary and shaft kilns in China. Furthermore, a species-differentiated VOCs emission inventory was compiled for the Chinese cement industry in 2019. The results demonstrated that the mass concentration of VOCs emitted from shaft kiln was more than 20-fold higher than that emitted from rotary kilns, and the alkanes was the dominant species (56%) in shaft kilns, while oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) and halocarbons were the main species in rotary kilns. Moreover, alkenes & alkyne were the dominant contributors to ozone formation potential (OFP) in shaft kilns, whereas alkenes & alkyne and OVOCs were comparable and prominent contributors in rotary kilns. In contrast, secondary organic aerosol potential (SOAP) for the two types of kilns was dominated by aromatics. In 2019, approximately 18.18 kt VOCs were emitted from cement production and were found to be largely concentrated in the southeast and central provinces of China. Considering the influence on environmental conditions, high OFP-contributing species in cement kilns are suggested to be a priority in the pollution mitigation of O₃. This study provides a new, comprehensive, and reasonable cognition of the current VOCs emissions from both rotary and shaft kilns in China, which will aid in a better understanding of VOCs emission characteristics and guide future policy-making.

Evaluating cost and benefit of air pollution control policies in China: A systematic review

China has put great efforts into air pollution control over the past years and recently committed to its most ambitious climate target. Cost and benefit analysis has been widely used to evaluate the control policies in terms of past performance, future reduction potential, and direct and indirect impacts. To understand the cost and benefit analysis for air pollution control in China, we conducted a bibliometric review of more than 100 studies published over the past two decades, including the current research progress, most commonly adopted methods, and core findings. The control target in cost and benefit analysis has shifted in three stages, from individual and primary pollution control, moving to joint prevention of multiple and secondary pollutants, and then towards synergistic control of air pollution and carbon. With the expansion of the research scope, the integrated assessment model has gradually demonstrated the necessity for long-term ex-anti policy simulation, especially for dealing with complex factors. To ensure long-term air quality, climate, public health, and sustainable economic development, substantial evidence from published studies has suggested that China needs to continue its efforts in the upstream adjustment of the energy system and industrial structure with multi-regional and -sector collaboration. This cost and benefit review paper provides decision-makers with the fundamental information and knowledge gaps in air pollution control strategies in China, and direction for facing future challenges.

Optimizing carbon emission forecast for modelling China's 2030 provincial carbon emission quota allocation

Rational allocation of carbon quotas is the fundamental premise for the orderly operation of carbon markets. To achieve the set target of carbon peak by 2030, there is an urgent need to establish China's 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation scheme. Although some proposed schemes have been formulated, there are problems with the methods used for carbon emission forecasting and evaluating the rationality of a proposed allocation scheme. This study aimed to optimize carbon emission forecast by incorporating terrestrial carbon sinks into the mechanism for building China's 2030 provincial carbon emission quota allocation schemes. Aquila Optimizer's Double Support Vector Regression (AO-based TWSVR) that has the advantages in solving problems associated with small sample size, nonlinear and high-dimensional pattern recognition with fast training speed and insensitivity to noise was adopted to predict the net carbon emission. The results show that the application of AO-based TWSVR model allows satisfactory forecast of the net carbon emission in China for the period from 2021 to 2035. This allowed terrestrial carbon sequestration being incorporated into the mechanism to formulate China's 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation schemes. Comparison of the three provincial carbon quota allocation schemes using social network analysis suggests that the equity-based carbon quota allocation scheme is more suitable for China's national conditions compared to the efficiency-based scheme and the combined principle-based scheme. The findings obtained from this study have implications for optimizing the scheme of China's 2030 provincial carbon quota allocation.

Co-effect assessment on regional air quality: A perspective of policies and measures with greenhouse gas reduction potential

Clean air policies have achieved remarkable air quality improvement in China for the last decade. However, as more importance was attached to climate issues and further improvement of air quality, policies with greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential were supposed to play a significant role. Here, we designed a conventional legislation pathway scenario (CLP) and an enhanced greenhouse gas reduction scenario (EGR), to estimate the co-effects of policies effective in GHG reduction on air pollutant control and air quality improvement in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2014 to 2020, adopting a measure-specific evaluation method and an integrated WRF-CAMx model simulation. Results showed that: 1) With the implementation of enhanced measures with GHG reduction potential, emissions of SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, VOC_s and NH₃ decreased by 16.4 %, 21.6 %, 18.6 %, 16.5 %, 23.9 % and 15.4 % in EGR scenario respectively, compared with CLP scenario. And the annual mean simulated concentrations of PM_2.5, SO₂ and NO₂ of the YRD decreased by 11.2 %, 15.4 % and 20.6 %, respectively. 2) The average 8-h maxima (MDA8) concentration of O₃ presented a slightly increasing trend under the impacts of measures with GHG reduction potential, which might be on account of the unbalanced control of NO_x and VOC_s, the two major precursors of O₃. 3) Based on the source apportionment analysis, major partition of total ozone in the four receptors in YRD was from regional transportation, rather than local formation. And the major sectors contributing to ozone were industry and transportation sector. This study quantitatively assessed the co-benefits of GHG-control-effective policies and specific measures on air quality improvement, which would help to provide implications for future policy-making to achieve air pollution and climate change co-control.

Mathematical modeling in the health risk assessment of air pollution-related disease burden in China: A review

This review paper covers an overview of air pollution-related disease burden in China and a literature review on the previous studies which have recently adopted a mathematical modeling approach to demonstrate the relative risk (RR) of air pollution-related disease burden. The associations between air pollution and disease burden have been explored in the previous studies. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the impact of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution by using a suitable mathematical model. The most common way of estimating the health risk attributable to air pollution exposure in a population is by employing a concentration-response function, which is often based on the estimation of a RR model. As most of the regions in China are experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization, the resulting high ambient air pollution is influencing more residents, which also increases the disease burden in the population. The existing RR models, including the integrated exposure-response (IER) model and the global exposure mortality model (GEMM), are critically reviewed to provide an understanding of the current status of mathematical modeling in the air pollution-related health risk assessment. The performances of different RR models in the mortality estimation of disease are also studied and compared in this paper. Furthermore, the limitations of the existing RR models are pointed out and discussed. Consequently, there is a need to develop a more suitable RR model to accurately estimate the disease burden attributable to air pollution in China, which contributes to one of the key steps in the health risk assessment. By using an updated RR model in the health risk assessment, the estimated mortality risk due to the impacts of environment such as air pollution and seasonal temperature variation could provide a more realistic and reliable information regarding the mortality data of the region, which would help the regional and national policymakers for intensifying their efforts on the improvement of air quality and the management of air pollution-related disease burden.

Co-Benefits of Energy Structure Transformation and Pollution Control for Air Quality and Public Health until 2050 in Guangdong, China

In order to mitigate global warming and improve air quality, the transformation of regional energy structures is the most important development pathway. China, as a major global consumer of fossil fuels, will face great pressure in this regard. Aiming toward achieving the global 2 °C warming target in China, this study takes one of the most developed regions of China, Guangdong Province, as the research area in order to explore a future development pathway and potential air quality attainment until 2050, by developing two energy structure scenarios (BAU_Energy and 2Deg_Energy) and three end-of-pipe scenarios (NFC, CLE, and MTFR), and simulating future air quality and related health impacts for the different scenarios using the WRF-Chem model. The results show that under the energy transformation scenario, total energy consumption in Guangdong rises from 296 Mtce (million tons of coal equivalent) in 2015 to 329 Mtce in 2050, with electricity and clean energy accounting for 45% and 35%. In 2050, the transformation of the energy structure leads to 64%, 75%, and 46% reductions in the emissions of CO₂, NOx, and SO₂ compared with those in 2015. Together with the most stringent end-of-pipe control measures, the emissions of VOCs and primary PM_2.5 are effectively reduced by 66% and 78%. The annual average PM_2.5 and MDA8 (daily maximum 8 h O₃) concentrations in Guangdong are 33.8 and 85.9 μg/m³ in 2015, with 63.4 thousand premature deaths (95% CI: 57.1-70.8) due to environmental exposure. Under the baseline scenario, no improvement is gained in air quality or public health by 2050. In contrast, the PM_2.5 and MDA8 concentrations decline to 21.7 and 75.5 μg/m³ under the scenario with energy structure transformation, and total premature deaths are reduced to 35.5 thousand (31.9-39.5). When further combined with the most stringent end-of-pipe control measures, the PM_2.5 concentrations decrease to 16.5 μg/m³, but there is no significant improvement for ozone, with premature deaths declining to 20.6 thousand (18.5-23.0). This study demonstrates that the transformation of energy structure toward climate goals could be effective in mitigating air pollution in Guangdong and would bring significant health benefits. Compared with the end-of-pipe control policies, transformation of the energy structure is a more effective way to improve regional air quality in the long term, and synergistic promotion of both is crucial for regional development.

Co-control of the haze pollution emissions in China: Insight from supply chains

Because of rapid economic development and the increase in social demand, China has been suffering from serious air pollution, in particular, haze pollution. To mitigate haze from the source, it is essential to achieve co-control of three important haze precursors: volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur dioxide (SO₂ ), and nitrogen oxide (NO_x ). In this study, we used the environmentally extended input-output model, structural path analysis, and structural path decomposition method to investigate changes in consumption-based emissions of three major haze precursors (i.e., NO_x , SO₂ , and VOCs) in China during 2007-2017. First, the results revealed that fixed capital formation was the most critical final demand to co-control the three precursors. Investment in construction was the most important behavior for co-control. Second, the most crucial common path driving the changes in emissions of the three precursors was "transportation and warehousing→household consumption" during 2007-2012, and "electricity, gas, and water supply→household consumption" during 2012-2017. Finally, direct emission intensity of transportation and warehousing, and electricity, gas, and water supplies were critical to co-control precursors. The results of this study provided a comprehensive understanding of changes in haze precursor emissions driven by demand. Therefore, China must strengthen the co-control of multiple pollutant emissions on both the production and consumption sides by adjusting supply chains. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;00:1-16. © 2022 SETAC.

Decadal changes in PM2.5-related health impacts in China from 1990 to 2019 and implications for current and future emission controls

In China, the rapid development of the economy and implementation of multiple emission control policies in recent decades have been accompanied by dramatic changes in air quality. In this study, PM_2.5 concentrations estimated by using MERRA-2 reanalysis data were integrated into the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) to explore the spatiotemporal variation of nationwide PM_2.5-related premature mortality from 1990 to 2019, and the driving factors behind decadal changes were evaluated. Since 2000, as a result of PM_2.5 pollution, air quality in China has deteriorated substantially, especially in the fast-developing eastern and southern parts. In 2009, the nationwide population-weighted (PW) PM_2.5 concentration peaked at 41.4 μg/m³ (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.7-46.2). Simultaneously, the GEMM results revealed that nationwide PM_2.5-related deaths increased remarkably from 1089 (95% CI, 965-1210) thousand in 1990 to 1795 (1597-1986) thousand in 2009. The implementation of the toughest-ever Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) in 2013 effectively controlled PM_2.5 pollution in China. By 2018, the nationwide PW PM_2.5 concentration had decreased to 34.0 (29.2-38.9) μg/m³. Dynamic trend prediction revealed that, although the APPCAP achieved substantial health benefits, the policy did not result in further remarkable reductions in PM_2.5-related deaths; in 2019, deaths peaked at 1932 (1716-2140) thousand. PM_2.5-related deaths in 2030 were projected for each of four emission control scenarios. The results of the driving factor analysis and the future projections indicated that the health benefits from improving air quality are likely to be counterbalanced by changes in the population age structure. Because population ageing is becoming more and more rapid in China and the challenge of climate change is increasing, the results of this study imply that policymakers need to implement more stringent measures and set more ambitious emission control targets to reduce nationwide PM_2.5-related premature mortality in the future.

Identification of key controlling factors of ozone pollution in Jinan, northern China over 2013–2020

Urban ozone (O3) pollution has become a prominent environmental threat to public health while the relationship between O3 formation and driving factors remains elusive, particularly for megacities in the Shandong Peninsula of China. In this study, we use intensive ambient measurements of trace gases to comprehensively investigate the magnitude of O3 pollution in Jinan city from 2013 to 2020. Further, emission inventory and OMI NO2 columns are used for probing changes in precursor emissions. Ground-level measurements indicate degraded O3 air quality afterward in 2015 and depict city-wide elevated O3 levels (higher than 140 μg/m3 in the warm season). For precursor emissions, it is found that NOx emissions have decreased more than 30% due to successful regulation efforts, which is in excellent agreement with NO2 columns from OMI. The method of objective synoptic weather pattern classification [T-Mode principal component analysis (PCT)] is adopted to distinguish the associated meteorological parameters under various synoptic patterns which govern the variability in regional O3 levels. Among identified synoptic patterns, Type 2 and Type 8 featured by low sea level pressure (SLP), high temperature, and strong ultraviolet radiation are the most prevalent synoptic patterns in spring and summer, respectively, which are prone to the occurrence of O3 exceedances. This work provides a detailed view of long-term O3 levels and the relationship between precursors and meteorological conditions in a typical densely populated city in northern China, showing implications for developing O3 mitigation strategies.

Shared network and supply chain features for synergetic control of carbon and air pollutant emissions

The synergetic control of carbon and air pollutant emissions will be an unflagging effort for China in its dual pursuit of air quality improvement and carbon neutrality. The shared features of sectoral emissions from network and supply chain perspectives, as well as the evolution of these features under policy intervention remain to be investigated. This study develops four ecological networks for CO₂ and SO₂ emissions targeting the period 2010-2015 with strengthened emission control implemented. By fusing input-output analysis, Ecological Network Analysis and Structural Path Analysis, the shared intersectoral linkages of emissions are examined, and the key supply chains are identified. The results indicate that most sectors have control over Transportation Equipment, Electronic Equipment, and Construction, and almost all sectors have dependence on Power and Heat. Exploitative relationships induced by emission flows along supply chains are predominant, accounting for over 60% for four emission flow networks. Eight shared supply chains are identified among the top 20 that generally induce larger than 50% emissions in both 2010 and 2015. The one with the largest emissions is "Total capital formation → Construction → Nonmetals". During 2010-2015, the critical evolution of network features is the decrease in the economy's control over Construction, dependence on Fossil Energy Mining, and emissions contained in the paths associated with exports. The findings help to more pertinently strategize on prescient regulation of key supply chains for a more effective carbon-pollution synergetic control.

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Over 3 million people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM_2·5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean-air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions (eg, to avoid 1·5°C of warming) might also greatly improve air quality and public health. However, no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes has been done under different energy pathways and local clean-air management decisions in China. We aimed to develop an integrated method for quantifying the health co-benefits from different climate, energy, and clean-air policy scenarios and to assess the relationship between climate and clean-air policies and future health burdens in China, where an ageing population will further exacerbate the effects of air pollution.

METHODS

For this modelling study, we used a China-focused integrated assessment model and a dynamic emission projection model to project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (1·5°C, 2°C, national determined contributions [NDC], unambitious, baseline, and 4·5°C) and national clean-air actions (termed 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluated the health effects of PM_2·5 air pollution in the scenario matrix using the air quality model and the latest epidemiological concentration-response functions from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

FINDINGS

We found that, without ambitious climate mitigation (eg, under current NDC pledge), Chinese deaths related to PM_2·5 air pollution might not always decrease-and might often grow-by 2050 compared with the base year of 2015, regardless of clean-air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in the scenario that tracks China's current NDC pledge and uses the best available pollution control technologies (the ambitious-pollution and NDC goals scenario), PM_2·5-related deaths in China would decrease slightly by 2030 to 1·23 million per year (95% CI 0·95-1·51) from 1·25 million (1·04-1·46) in 2015, but would not decrease further by 2050 (1·21 million, 0·86-1·60) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (from 27·2 μg/m³ in 2030 to 16·0 μg/m³ in 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM_2·5-related deaths in many of our scenarios revealed the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the increasing age of China's population in the future. With the scenarios that included ambitious clean-air policies and met international climate goals to avoid 1·5°C and 2°C of warming (the ambitious-pollution-2°C goals scenario and the ambitious-pollution-1·5°C goals scenario), we observed substantial decreases in China's PM_2·5-related deaths of 0·32-0·55 million deaths compared with NDC goals in 2050, and age-standardised death rates decreased by 10·2-14·2 deaths per 100 000 population per year.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that ambitious climate policies (ie, limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2°C) and low-carbon energy transitions coupled with stringent clean-air policies are necessary to substantially reduce the human health effects from air pollution in China, regardless of socioeconomic assumptions. Our findings could help policy makers understand the crucial links between climate policy and public health.

FUNDING

The National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Environmental and Health Co-Benefits of Coal Regulation under the Carbon Neutral Target: A Case Study in Anhui Province, China

Coal regulation has been implemented throughout China. However, the potential benefits of pollution abatement and the co-benefits of residents’ health were rarely assessed. In this study, based on the analysis of historical coal consumption and multiple coal regulation measures in Anhui Province, China, four scenarios (Business as Usual (BU), Structure Optimization (SO), Gross Consumption Control (GC), and Comprehensive Measures (CM)) were constructed to indicate four different paths from 2020 to 2060, which is a vital period for realizing carbon neutrality. The results show that reductions of SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 emissions in the SO scenario are higher than those in the GC scenario, while the reduction of NOx emission is higher in the GC scenario. Compared with the BU scenario, residents’ health benefits from 2020 to 2060 are 8.3, 4.8, and 4.5 billion USD in the CM, GC, and SO scenarios, respectively, indicating that the achievements of coal regulation are significant for health promotion. Therefore, the optimization and implementation of coal regulation in the future is not only essential for the carbon neutrality target, but also a significant method to yield environmental and health co-benefits.

The Impact of Air Quality on Effective Labor Supply: Based on the Survey Data of Zhejiang Province in China

Labor is one of the most important factors of production and the basis for the development of social productivity. China’s aging population problem is serious, and the study of the labor supply is of great importance in order to achieve its second centenary goal regarding social development. In this study, four stage mixed sampling was used to conduct a questionnaire survey in the Zhejiang province of China, and 590 valid questionnaires were obtained. An ordered logit model and sample selection model were used to analyze the impact of air quality on the effective labor supply. The results show that the effective labor supply was significantly correlated with air quality. That is, the worse the air quality was, the lower the effective labor supply was, although this relationship was more explicit for people who worked indoors. When air quality impedes residents’ daily lives and even affects their health, it indirectly affects the effective supply of local labor. This paper indicates the causal relationship between economic development and the ecological environment and has enlightening significance for the realization of sustainable development.