Evaluation of MPA designs that protect highly mobile megafauna now and under climate change scenarios

Multi-Species Telemetry Quantifies Current and Future Efficacy of a Remote Marine Protected Area

Large-scale marine protected areas (LSMPAs; > 1000 km2) provide important refuge for large mobile species, but most do not encompass species' ranges. To better understand current and future LSMPA value, we concurrently tracked nine species (seabirds, cetaceans, pelagic fishes, manta rays, reef sharks) at Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef (PKMPA) in the U.S. Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument. PKMPA and the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone encompassed 39% and 54% of species movements (n = 83; tracking duration range: 0.5-350 days), respectively. Species distribution models indicated 73% of PKMPA contained highly suitable habitat. Under two projected future scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, "Sustainability"; SSP 3-7.0, "Rocky Road"), strong sea surface temperature gradients initially could cause abrupt oceanic change resulting in predicted habitat loss in 2040-2050, followed by an equilibrium response and regained habitat by 2090-2100. Current and future suitable habitats were available adjacent to PKMPA, suggesting that increased MPA size could enhance protection. Our three-tiered approach combining animal tracking with publicly available remote sensing data and future projected environmental scenarios could be used to design, study, and monitor protected areas throughout the world. Holistic approaches that encompass diverse species and habitat use can enhance assessments of protected area designs. Animal telemetry and remote sensing may be helpful for ascertaining the extent to which other MPAs protect large mobile species in the future.

Scaling up ocean conservation through recognition of key biodiversity areas in the Southern Ocean from multispecies tracking data

Biodiversity is critical for maintaining ecosystem function but is threatened by increasing anthropogenic pressures. In the Southern Ocean, a highly biologically productive region containing many endemic species, proactive management is urgently needed to mitigate increasing pressures from fishing, climate change, and tourism. Site-based conservation is one important tool for managing the negative impacts of human activities on ecosystems. The Key Biodiversity Area (KBA) Standard is a standardized framework used to define sites vital for the persistence of global biodiversity based on criteria and quantitative thresholds. We used tracking data from 14 species of Antarctic and subantarctic seabirds and pinnipeds from the publicly available Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) data set to define KBAs for a diverse suite of marine predators. We used track2kba, an R package that supports identification of KBAs from telemetry data through identification of highly used habitat areas and estimates of local abundance within sites. We compared abundance estimates at each site with thresholds for KBA criteria A1, B1, and D1 (related to globally threatened species, individual geographically restricted species, and demographic aggregations, respectively). We identified 30 potential KBAs for 13 species distributed throughout the Southern Ocean that were vital for each individual species, population, and life-history stage for which they were determined. These areas were identified as highly used by these populations based on observational data and complement the ongoing habitat modeling and bioregionalization work that has been used to prioritize conservation areas in this region. Although further work is needed to identify potential KBAs based on additional current and future data sets, we highlight the benefits of utilizing KBAs as part of a holistic approach to marine conservation, given their significant value as a global conservation tool.

Effectiveness of marine protected areas in safeguarding important migratory megafauna habitat

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a commonly used management tool to safeguard marine life from anthropogenic impacts, yet their efficacy often remains untested. Evaluating how highly dynamic marine species use static MPAs is challenging but becoming more feasible with the advancement of telemetry data. Here, we focus on southern right whales (Eubalaena australis, SRWs) in the waters off Aotearoa/New Zealand, which declined from 30,000 whales to fewer than 40 mature females due to whaling. Now numbering in the low thousands, the key socializing and nursery areas for this population in the remote subantarctic islands are under the protection of different types of MPAs. However, the effectiveness of these MPAs in encompassing important whale habitat and protecting the whales from vessel traffic has not been investigated. To address this, we analyzed telemetry data from 29 SRWs tagged at the Auckland Islands between 2009 and 2022. We identified two previously unknown and currently unprotected areas that were used by the whales for important behaviors such as foraging, socializing, or resting. Additionally, by combining whale locations and vessel tracking data (2020-2022) during peak breeding period (June to October), we found high spatiotemporal overlap between whales and vessels within several MPAs, suggesting the whales could still be vulnerable to multiple anthropogenic stressors even when within areas designated for protection. Our results identify areas to be prioritized for future monitoring and investigation to support the ongoing recovery of this SRW population, as well as highlight the overarching importance of assessing MPA effectiveness post-implementation, especially in a changing climate.

Climate change reduces long-term population benefits from no-take marine protected areas through selective pressures on species movement

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools that confer ecosystem benefits by removing fishing within their borders to allow stocks to rebuild. Fishing mortality outside a traditionally fixed MPA can exert selective pressure for low movement alleles, resulting in enhanced protection. While evolving to move less may be useful for conservation presently, it could be detrimental in the face of climate change for species that need to move to track their thermal optimum. Here, we build a spatially explicit simulation model to assess the impact of movement evolution in and around static MPAs resulting from both fishing mortality and temperature-dependent natural mortality on conservation benefits across five climate scenarios: (i) linear mean temperature shift, (ii) El Niño/La Niña conditions, (iii) heat waves, (iv) heatwaves with a mean temperature shift, and (v) no climate change. While movement evolution allows populations within MPAs to survive longer, we find that over time, climate change degrades the benefits by selecting for higher movement genotypes. Resulting population declines within MPAs are faster than expected based on climate mortality alone, even within the largest MPAs. Our findings suggest that while static MPAs may conserve species for a time, other strategies, such as dynamic MPA networks or assisted migration, may also be required to effectively incorporate climate change into conservation planning.

Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration

Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled development' scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s-1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.