Stochastic interventional approach to assessing immune correlates of protection: Application to the COVE messenger RNA-1273 vaccine trial

Safety and immunogenicity of an mRNA-1273 vaccine booster in adolescents

Safety, immunogenicity, and effectiveness of an mRNA-1273 50-μg booster were evaluated in adolescents (12-17 years), with and without pre-booster SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants who had received the 2-dose mRNA-1273 100-µg primary series in the TeenCOVE trial (NCT04649151) were offered the mRNA-1273 50-μg booster. Primary objectives included safety and inference of effectiveness by establishing noninferiority of neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses after the booster compared with the nAb post-primary series of mRNA-1273 among young adults in COVE (NCT04470427). Binding antibody (bAb) responses against SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest and COVID-19 incidence after vaccination were also evaluated. Median boosting interval was 315 days. The mRNA-1273 booster was well-tolerated, with an acceptable safety profile. Relative to pre-booster, nAb geometric mean levels increased after the booster by 17.8-fold and 4.7-fold among pre-booster SARS-CoV-2-negative and -positive participants, respectively. Effectiveness was successfully inferred based on noninferiority of nAb levels from mRNA-1273 booster dose (Day 29) compared with nAb levels after mRNA-1273 primary series (Day 57) among young adults in COVE. Further, the booster increased bAb levels relative to pre-booster baseline against SARS-CoV-2 variants (alpha [B.1.1.7], beta [B.1.351], gamma [P.1], and delta [B.1.617.2]), regardless of pre-booster SARS-CoV-2 status. COVID-19 incidence (cases per 1000 person-months) was lower among boosted (0 cases) than non-boosted (95.766 cases) participants in January 2022, a peak period during the early omicron transmission. In summary, the mRNA-1273 50-μg booster induced robust nAb responses in previously vaccinated adolescents, regardless of SARS-CoV-2 serostatus. Effectiveness was successfully inferred and the booster was well-tolerated, with no new safety concerns identified.

Neutralizing antibody immune correlates in COVAIL trial recipients of an mRNA second COVID-19 vaccine boost

Neutralizing antibody titer has been a surrogate endpoint for guiding COVID-19 vaccine approval and use, although the pandemic's evolution and the introduction of variant-adapted vaccine boosters raise questions as to this surrogate's contemporary performance. For 985 recipients of an mRNA second bivalent or monovalent booster containing various Spike inserts [Prototype (Ancestral), Beta, Delta, and/or Omicron BA.1 or BA.4/5] in the COVAIL trial (NCT05289037), titers against 5 strains were assessed as correlates of risk of symptomatic COVID-19 ("COVID-19") and as correlates of relative (Pfizer-BioNTech Omicron vs. Prototype) booster protection against COVID-19 over 6 months of follow-up during the BA.2-BA.5 Omicron-dominant period. Consistently across the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine platforms and across all variant Spike inserts assessed, both peak and exposure-proximal ("predicted-at-exposure") titers correlated with lower Omicron COVID-19 risk in individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, albeit significantly less so in naïve individuals [e.g., exposure-proximal hazard ratio per 10-fold increase in BA.1 titer 0.74 (95% CI 0.59, 0.94) for naïve vs. 0.41 (95% CI 0.23, 0.64) for non-naïve; interaction p = 0.013]. Neutralizing antibody titer was a strong inverse correlate of Omicron COVID-19 in non-naïve individuals and a weaker correlate in naïve individuals, posing questions about how prior infection alters the neutralization correlate.

Neutralizing antibody correlate of protection against severe-critical COVID-19 in the ENSEMBLE single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy trial

Assessment of immune correlates of severe COVID-19 has been hampered by the low numbers of severe cases in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) trials. We assess neutralizing and binding antibody levels at 4 weeks post-Ad26.COV2.S vaccination as correlates of risk and of protection against severe-critical COVID-19 through 220 days post-vaccination in the ENSEMBLE trial (NCT04505722), constituting ~4.5 months longer follow-up than our previous correlates analysis and enabling inclusion of 42 severe-critical vaccine-breakthrough cases. Neutralizing antibody titer is a strong inverse correlate of severe-critical COVID-19, with estimated hazard ratio (HR) per 10-fold increase 0.35 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.90). In a multivariable model, HRs are 0.31 (0.11, 0.89) for neutralizing antibody titer and 1.22 (0.49, 3.02) for anti-Spike binding antibody concentration. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 rises with neutralizing antibody titer: 63.1% (95% CI: 40.0%, 77.3%) at unquantifiable [<4.8975 International Units (IU)50/ml], 85.2% (47.2%, 95.3%) at just-quantifiable (5.2 IU50/ml), and 95.1% (81.1%, 96.9%) at 90th percentile (30.2 IU50/ml). At the same titers, VE against moderate COVID-19 is 32.5% (11.8%, 48.4%), 33.9% (19.1%, 59.3%), and 60.7% (40.4%, 76.4%). Protection against moderate vs. severe disease may require higher antibody levels, and very low antibody levels and/or other immune responses may associate with protection against severe disease.

Omicron COVID-19 immune correlates analysis of a third dose of mRNA-1273 in the COVE trial

In the phase 3 Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial (NCT04470427), post-dose two Ancestral Spike-specific binding (bAb) and neutralizing (nAb) antibodies were shown to be correlates of risk (CoR) and of protection against Ancestral-lineage COVID-19 in SARS-CoV-2 naive participants. In the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron era, Omicron subvariants with varying degrees of immune escape now dominate, seropositivity rates are high, and booster doses are administered, raising questions on whether and how these developments affect the bAb and nAb correlates. To address these questions, we assess post-boost BA.1 Spike-specific bAbs and nAbs as CoRs and as correlates of booster efficacy in COVE. For naive individuals, bAbs and nAbs inversely correlate with Omicron COVID-19: hazard ratios (HR) per 10-fold marker increase (95% confidence interval) are 0.16 (0.03, 0.79) and 0.31 (0.10, 0.96), respectively. In non-naive individuals the analogous results are similar: 0.15 (0.04, 0.63) and 0.28 (0.07, 1.08). For naive individuals, three vs two-dose booster efficacy correlates with predicted nAb titer at exposure, with estimates -8% (-126%, 48%), 50% (25%, 67%), and 74% (49%, 87%), at 56, 251, and 891 Arbitrary Units/ml. These results support the continued use of antibody as a surrogate endpoint.

Long-term safety and effectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccine in adults: COVE trial open-label and booster phases

Primary vaccination with mRNA-1273 (100-µg) was safe and efficacious at preventing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the previously reported, blinded Part A of the phase 3 Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE; NCT04470427) trial in adults (≥18 years) across 99 U.S. sites. The open-label (Parts B and C) primary objectives were evaluation of long-term safety and effectiveness of primary vaccination plus a 50-µg booster dose; immunogenicity was a secondary objective. Of 29,035 open-label participants, 19,609 received boosters (mRNA-1273 [n = 9647]; placebo-mRNA-1273 [n = 9952]; placebo [n = 10] groups). Booster safety was consistent with that reported for primary vaccination. Incidences of COVID-19 and severe COVID-19 were higher during the Omicron BA.1 than Delta variant waves and boosting versus non-boosting was associated with a significant, 47.0% (95% CI : 39.0-53.9%) reduction of Omicron BA.1 incidence (24.6 [23.4 - 25.8] vs 46.4 [40.6 - 52.7]/1000 person-months). In an exploratory Cox regression model adjusted for time-varying covariates, a longer median interval between primary vaccination and boosting (mRNA-1273 [13 months] vs placebo-mRNA-1273 [8 months]) was associated with significantly lower, COVID-19 risk (24.0% [16.0% - 32.0%]) during Omicron BA.1 predominance. Boosting elicited greater immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 than primary vaccination, irrespective of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Primary vaccination and boosting with mRNA-1273 demonstrated acceptable safety, effectiveness and immunogenicity against COVID-19, including emergent variants.

Four statistical frameworks for assessing an immune correlate of protection (surrogate endpoint) from a randomized, controlled, vaccine efficacy trial

A central goal of vaccine research is to characterize and validate immune correlates of protection (CoPs). In addition to helping elucidate immunological mechanisms, a CoP can serve as a valid surrogate endpoint for an infectious disease clinical outcome and thus qualifies as a primary endpoint for vaccine authorization or approval without requiring resource-intensive randomized, controlled phase 3 trials. Yet, it is challenging to persuasively validate a CoP, because a prognostic immune marker can fail as a reliable basis for predicting/inferring the level of vaccine efficacy against a clinical outcome, and because the statistical analysis of phase 3 trials only has limited capacity to disentangle association from cause. Moreover, the multitude of statistical methods garnered for CoP evaluation in phase 3 trials renders the comparison, interpretation, and synthesis of CoP results challenging. Toward promoting broader harmonization and standardization of CoP evaluation, this article summarizes four complementary statistical frameworks for evaluating CoPs in a phase 3 trial, focusing on the frameworks' distinct scientific objectives as measured and communicated by distinct causal vaccine efficacy parameters. Advantages and disadvantages of the frameworks are considered, dependent on phase 3 trial context, and perspectives are offered on how the frameworks can be applied and their results synthesized.