A Risk Calculator to Predict the Individual Risk of Conversion From Subthreshold Bipolar Symptoms to Bipolar Disorder I or II in Youth

Elevating the Field of Eating Disorders Through Scholarship and Thoughtfulness: Honoring the Legacy of Dr. Michael Strober

This Virtual Issue of the International Journal of Eating Disorders honors the legacy of the late Dr. Michael Strober in the eating disorders and child psychiatry fields. Having served as Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Eating Disorders from 1983 to 2012, Dr. Strober elevated the quality of science conducted in the eating disorders field. His frank feedback and encouraging words inspired many junior researchers to sharpen their work and to think deeply about their results. An incisive thinker, eloquent writer, and gifted clinician, Dr. Strober was a role model for psychologists in clinical leadership positions and demonstrated that it is indeed possible to be a highly effective all-rounder. In this issue, we present an annotated selection of Dr. Strober's publications in the journal over the past decades to illustrate the evolution of his thinking and the seeds of what have become major directions in the field, including fear conditioning and genetics. By presenting this collection of his work, we encourage all investigators to read broadly and deeply and to identify and acknowledge those incisive scholars who have built the foundation upon which our work today stands.

A prognostic model for predicting functional impairment in youth mental health services

BACKGROUND

Functional impairment is a major concern among those presenting to youth mental health services and can have a profound impact on long-term outcomes. Early recognition and prevention for those at risk of functional impairment is essential to guide effective youth mental health care. Yet, identifying those at risk is challenging and impacts the appropriate allocation of indicated prevention and early intervention strategies.

METHODS

We developed a prognostic model to predict a young person's social and occupational functional impairment trajectory over 3 months. The sample included 718 young people (12-25 years) engaged in youth mental health care. A Bayesian random effects model was designed using demographic and clinical factors and model performance was evaluated on held-out test data via 5-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

Eight factors were identified as the optimal set for prediction: employment, education, or training status; self-harm; psychotic-like experiences; physical health comorbidity; childhood-onset syndrome; illness type; clinical stage; and circadian disturbances. The model had an acceptable area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) overall, indicating its utility for predicting functional impairment over 3 months. For those with good baseline functioning, it showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.80, 0.67-0.79) for identifying individuals at risk of deterioration.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a prognostic model for youth mental health services to predict functional impairment trajectories over a 3-month period. This model serves as a foundation for further tool development and demonstrates its potential to guide indicated prevention and early intervention for enhancing functional outcomes or preventing functional decline.

Prodromal symptoms of a first manic episode: a qualitative study to the perspectives of patients with bipolar disorder and their caregivers'

BACKGROUND

Diagnosing bipolar disorder (BD) is challenging, and adequate treatment is of major importance to minimalize the consequences of the illness. Early recognition is one way to address this. Although in clinical research the prodromal phase of BD is gaining interest, the perspective of patients with BD and their caregivers on prodromal symptoms is still lacking. The aim of this study is to gain insights in prodromal symptoms of patients with BD and their caregivers before the onset of a first manic episode.

METHODS

A qualitative research method was used to investigate prodromal symptoms one year prior to a first manic episode. In-depth interviews were conducted with patients with BD type I and their caregivers. Only patients with a first manic episode in the previous five years were included.

RESULTS

The prodromal symptoms from patients' and caregivers' perspectives could be clustered into seven themes, with underlying subthemes: behavior (increased activity, destructive behavior, disinhibited behavior, inadequate behavior, changes in appearance), physical changes (changes in sleep, physical signals, differences in facial expression), communication (reciprocity, process, changes in use of social media), thought (process and content), cognition (changes in attention and concentration, forgetfulness), emotions (positive emotions, more intense emotions, mood swings), and personality (more pronounced manifestation of existing personality traits).

CONCLUSION

Patients with bipolar I disorder and their caregivers described subsyndromal manic features one year prior to a first manic episode. In addition, they recognized mood lability, physical changes and more pronounced manifestation of existing personality traits. The results of this study confirm the presence of a prodromal phase. In clinical practice, monitoring of prodromal symptoms of BD can be useful in patients with depression, especially those with a familial risk of BD.

Running in the FAMILY: understanding and predicting the intergenerational transmission of mental illness

Over 50% of children with a parent with severe mental illness will develop mental illness by early adulthood. However, intergenerational transmission of risk for mental illness in one's children is insufficiently considered in clinical practice, nor is it sufficiently utilised into diagnostics and care for children of ill parents. This leads to delays in diagnosing young offspring and missed opportunities for protective actions and resilience strengthening. Prior twin, family, and adoption studies suggest that the aetiology of mental illness is governed by a complex interplay of genetic and environmental factors, potentially mediated by changes in epigenetic programming and brain development. However, how these factors ultimately materialise into mental disorders remains unclear. Here, we present the FAMILY consortium, an interdisciplinary, multimodal (e.g., (epi)genetics, neuroimaging, environment, behaviour), multilevel (e.g., individual-level, family-level), and multisite study funded by a European Union Horizon-Staying-Healthy-2021 grant. FAMILY focuses on understanding and prediction of intergenerational transmission of mental illness, using genetically informed causal inference, multimodal normative prediction, and animal modelling. Moreover, FAMILY applies methods from social sciences to map social and ethical consequences of risk prediction to prepare clinical practice for future implementation. FAMILY aims to deliver: (i) new discoveries clarifying the aetiology of mental illness and the process of resilience, thereby providing new targets for prevention and intervention studies; (ii) a risk prediction model within a normative modelling framework to predict who is at risk for developing mental illness; and (iii) insight into social and ethical issues related to risk prediction to inform clinical guidelines.

Predictors of Transition from Child and Adolescent Bipolar Not Otherwise Specified to Bipolar I Disorder, a Longitudinal 3.9-Year Study

Background: Children and adolescents with subthreshold manic symptoms not meeting full DSM criteria for bipolar I or II disorder (BP-I or BP-II) are classified as unspecified bipolar disorder (formerly bipolar not otherwise specified: BP-NOS). Factors associated with transition from BP-II or NOS to BP-I may predict the progression of the disorder. Our objective is to analyze factors associated with transition to BP-I in a Spanish sample of youth with BP-NOS or BP-II. Methods: We included all youth diagnosed with BP before 18 years of age presenting to our clinic (October 1999-December 2014). We assessed clinical factors that may predict transition to BP I with a logistic regression and a multivariable model for data analysis. Results: A total of 72 patients with BP, mean (SD) age 14.5 (10.5-16.0) years, were followed for a median period of 3.9 years. In total, 95.8% of patients retained the BP diagnosis, but they changed type. Baseline BP-I % was 37.5%, and 62.5% at endpoint. BP-NOS decreased from baseline 54.2% to 25% at endpoint. The % of BP-II was 8.3% in both time points, but they were not the same individual patients, as some transitioned from BP-II to BP-I and some BP-NOS changed to BP-II. BP-NOS was stable in 46.1% of patients, but 38.5% transitioned to BP-I over time. Psychotic symptoms during prior depressive episodes (MDD) increased the risk of transition to BP-I by 11-fold. Each individual symptom of mania increased the risk of transition to BP-I by 1.41. Conclusions: BP-NOS was stable in 46.1% of patients, but 38.5% transitioned to BP-I over time. Psychotic symptoms during prior MDD episodes increased the risk of transition from BP-NOS to BP-I.

Clinical prediction models in children that use repeated measurements with time-varying covariates: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence suggests that clinical prediction models that use repeated (time-varying) measurements within each patient may have higher predictive accuracy than models that use patient information from a single measurement.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the breadth of the published literature reporting the development of clinical prediction models in children that use time-varying predictors.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included studies reporting the development of a multivariable clinical prediction model in children, with or without validation, to predict a repeatedly measured binary or time-to-event outcome and utilizing at least one repeatedly measured predictor.

SYNTHESIS METHODS

We categorized included studies by the method used to model time-varying predictors.

RESULTS

Of 99 clinical prediction model studies that had a repeated measurements data structure, only 27 (27%) used methods that incorporated the repeated measurements as time-varying predictors in a single model. Among these 27 time-varying prediction model studies, we grouped model types into nine categories: time-dependent Cox regression, generalized estimating equations, random effects model, landmark model, joint model, neural network, K-nearest neighbor, support vector machine and tree-based algorithms. Where there was comparison of time-varying models to single measurement models, using time-varying predictors improved predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Various methods have been used to develop time-varying prediction models in children, but there is a paucity of pediatric time-varying models in the literature. Incorporating time-varying covariates in pediatric prediction models may improve predictive accuracy. Future research in pediatric prediction model development should further investigate whether incorporation of time-varying covariates improves predictive accuracy.

Antecedents of major depressive, bipolar, and psychotic disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies

Major depressive, bipolar, or psychotic disorders are preceded by earlier manifestations in behaviours and experiences. We present a synthesis of evidence on associations between person-level antecedents (behaviour, performance, psychopathology) in childhood, adolescence, or early adulthood and later onsets of major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, or psychotic disorder based on prospective studies published up to September 16, 2022. We screened 11,342 records, identified 460 eligible publications, and extracted 570 risk ratios quantifying the relationships between 52 antecedents and onsets in 198 unique samples with prospective follow-up of 122,766 individuals from a mean age of 12.4 to a mean age of 24.8 for 1522,426 person years of follow-up. We completed meta-analyses of 12 antecedents with adequate data. Psychotic symptoms, depressive symptoms, anxiety, disruptive behaviors, affective lability, and sleep problems were transdiagnostic antecedents associated with onsets of depressive, bipolar, and psychotic disorders. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity and hypomanic symptoms specifically predicted bipolar disorder. While transdiagnostic and diagnosis-specific antecedents inform targeted prevention and help understand pathogenic mechanisms, extensive gaps in evidence indicate potential for improving early risk identification.

Heterogeneity in the longitudinal courses of global functioning in children at familial risk of major psychiatric disorders: Association with trauma and familial characteristics

OBJECTIVES

The extent to which heterogeneity in childhood risk trajectories may underlie later heterogeneity in schizophrenia (SZ), bipolar disorder (BP), and major depressive disorder (MDD) remains a chief question. Answers may optimally be found by studying the longitudinal trajectories of children born to an affected parent. We aimed to differentiate trajectories of global functioning and their sensitive periods from the age of 6 to 17 years in children at familial risk (FHRs).

METHODS

First, a latent class mixed model analysis (LCMM) was applied to yearly ratings of the Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS) from the age of 6 to 17 years in 170 FHRs born to a parent affected by DSM-IV SZ (N = 37), BP (N = 82) or MDD (N = 51). Then, we compared the obtained Classes or trajectories of FHRs in terms of sex, parental diagnosis, IQ, child clinical status, childhood trauma, polygenic risk score (PRS), and outcome in transition to illness.

RESULTS

The LCMM on yearly CGAS trajectories identified a 4-class solution showing markedly different childhood and adolescence dynamic courses and temporal vulnerability windows marked by a functioning decline and a degree of specificity in parental diagnosis. Moreover, IQ, trauma exposure, PRS level, and timing of later transition to illness differentiated the trajectories. Almost half (46%) of the FHRs exhibited a good and stable global functioning trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

FHRs of major psychiatric disorders show heterogeneous functional decline during development associated with parental diagnosis, polygenic risk loading, and childhood trauma.

Predictive Utility of Irritability "In Context": Proof-of-Principle for an Early Childhood Mental Health Risk Calculator

OBJECTIVE

We provide proof-of-principle for a mental health risk calculator advancing clinical utility of the irritability construct for identification of young children at high risk for common, early onsetting syndromes.

METHOD

Data were harmonized from two longitudinal early childhood subsamples (total N = 403; 50.1% Male; 66.7% Nonwhite; Mage = 4.3 years). The independent subsamples were clinically enriched via disruptive behavior and violence (Subsample 1) and depression (Subsample 2). In longitudinal models, epidemiologic risk prediction methods for risk calculators were applied to test the utility of the transdiagnostic indicator, early childhood irritability, in the context of other developmental and social-ecological indicators to predict risk of internalizing/externalizing disorders at preadolescence (Mage = 9.9 years). Predictors were retained when they improved model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] and integrated discrimination index [IDI]) beyond the base demographic model.

RESULTS

Compared to the base model, the addition of early childhood irritability and adverse childhood experiences significantly improved the AUC (0.765) and IDI slope (0.192). Overall, 23% of preschoolers went on to develop a preadolescent internalizing/externalizing disorder. For preschoolers with both elevated irritability and adverse childhood experiences, the likelihood of an internalizing/externalizing disorder was 39-66%.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive analytic tools enable personalized prediction of psychopathological risk for irritable young children, holding transformative potential for clinical translation.

Abnormal stability of spontaneous neuronal activity as a predictor of diagnosis conversion from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVE

Bipolar disorder (BD) is often misdiagnosed as major depressive disorder (MDD) in the early stage, which may lead to inappropriate treatment. This study aimed to characterize the alterations of spontaneous neuronal activity in patients with depressive episodes whose diagnosis transferred from MDD to BD.

METHODS

532 patients with MDD and 132 healthy controls (HCs) were recruited over 10 years. During the follow-up period, 75 participants with MDD transferred to BD (tBD), and 157 participants remained with the diagnosis of unipolar depression (UD). After excluding participants with poor image quality and excessive head movement, 68 participants with the diagnosis of tBD, 150 participants with the diagnosis of UD, and 130 HCs were finally included in the analysis. The dynamic amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations (dALFF) of spontaneous neuronal activity was evaluated in tBD, UD and HC using functional magnetic resonance imaging at study inclusion. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of the conversion prediction from MDD to BD based on dALFF.

RESULTS

Compared to HC, tBD exhibited elevated dALFF at left premotor cortex (PMC_L), right lateral temporal cortex (LTC_R) and right early auditory cortex (EAC_R), and UD showed reduced dALFF at PMC_L, left paracentral lobule (PCL_L), bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), right orbital frontal cortex (OFC_R), right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC_R), right posterior cingulate cortex (PCC_R) and elevated dALFF at LTC_R. Furthermore, tBD exhibited elevated dALFF at PMC_L, PCL_L, bilateral mPFC, bilateral OFC, DLPFC_R, PCC_R and LTC_R than UD. In addition, ROC analysis based on dALFF in differential areas obtained an area under the curve (AUC) of 72.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrated the temporal dynamic abnormalities of tBD and UD in the critical regions of the somatomotor network (SMN), default mode network (DMN), and central executive network (CEN). The differential abnormal patterns of temporal dynamics between the two diseases have the potential to predict the diagnosis transition from MDD to BD.

Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

Bipolar disorder (BD) conveys the highest risk of suicide of all mental disorders. We sought to externally validate a risk calculator (RC) of suicide attempts developed in youth with BD from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study in an adult sample.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of adults with BD from the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study (CDS; N = 427; mean (+/- SD) age at intake (36 +/- 13 years)) was secondarily analyzed to validate the COBY RC for one-year risk of suicide attempts/deaths. Nine of the ten predictor variables from the COBY RC were available in the CDS and used: age, age of mood disorder onset, first and second (partial) degree family history of suicide, history of psychotic symptoms, substance use disorder, prior suicide attempt, socioeconomic status, and non-suicidal self-injury (prospectively, incompletely at baseline).

RESULTS

Over a mean (SD) follow-up of 19 (10) years, 29 % of the CDS sample attempted suicide. The RC predicted suicide attempts/deaths over one-year follow-up with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78 (95 % CI 0.75-0.80). The RC performed slightly better in those with a younger age of mood disorder onset.

LIMITATIONS

Clinical samples may limit generalizability; the RC does not assess more acute suicide risk.

CONCLUSIONS

One-year risk of suicide attempts/deaths can be predicted with acceptable accuracy in youth and adults with BD, comparable to commonly used RCs to predict cardiovascular risk. This RC may help identify higher-risk individuals with BD for personalized treatment and research. https://cobysuicideattemptsrc.shinyapps.io/Shiny.

Premorbid intelligence quotient and school failure as risk markers for bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder

Mood disorders significantly impact global health, with MDD ranking as the second leading cause of disability in the United States and BD ranking 18th. Despite their prevalence and impact, the relationship between premorbid intelligence and the subsequent development of BD and MDD remains inconclusive. This study investigates the potential of premorbid Intelligence Quotient (IQ) and school failure frequency as risk factors for Bipolar Disorder (BD) and Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) in a birth cohort setting. We analyze data from the Pelotas population-based birth cohort study, comprising 3580 participants aged 22, who had no prior mood disorder diagnoses. Utilizing regression models and accounting for potential confounders, we assess the impact of IQ and school failure, measured at age 18, on the emergence of BD and MDD diagnoses at age 22, using individuals without mood disorders as comparators. Results reveal that lower IQ (below 70) at 18 is associated with an increased risk of BD (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] 1.75, 95%CI: 1.00-3.09, p < 0.05), while higher IQ (above 120) is linked to MDD (AOR 2.16, 95%CI: 1.24-3.75, p < 0.001). Moreover, an elevated number of school failures is associated with increased BD risk (AOR 1.23, 95%CI: 1.11-1.41, p < 0.001), particularly for BD type 1 (AOR 1.36, 95% CI: 1.17-1.58, p < 0.001). These findings offer insights into the distinct premorbid intellectual characteristics of BD and MDD and contribute to a deeper understanding of their developmental trajectories, potentially informing the development of risk assessment tools for mood disorders.

Young people at risk for developing bipolar disorder: Two-year findings from the multicenter prospective, naturalistic Early-BipoLife study

Early identification and intervention of individuals with an increased risk for bipolar disorder (BD) may improve the course of illness and prevent long‑term consequences. Early-BipoLife, a multicenter, prospective, naturalistic study, examined risk factors of BD beyond family history in participants aged 15-35 years. At baseline, positively screened help-seeking participants (screenBD at-risk) were recruited at Early Detection Centers and in- and outpatient depression and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) settings, references (Ref) drawn from a representative cohort. Participants reported sociodemographics and medical history and were repeatedly examined regarding psychopathology and the course of risk factors. N = 1,083 screenBD at-risk and n = 172 Ref were eligible for baseline assessment. Within the first two years, n = 31 screenBD at-risk (2.9 %) and none of Ref developed a manifest BD. The cumulative transition risk was 0.0028 at the end of multistep assessment, 0.0169 at 12 and 0.0317 at 24 months (p = 0.021). The transition rate with a BD family history was 6.0 %, 4.7 % in the Early Phase Inventory for bipolar disorders (EPIbipolar), 6.6 % in the Bipolar Prodrome Interview and Symptom Scale-Prospective (BPSS-FP) and 3.2 % with extended Bipolar At-Risk - BARS criteria). In comparison to help-seeking young patients from psychosis detection services, transition rates in screenBD at-risk participants were lower. The findings of Early-BipoLife underscore the importance of considering risk factors beyond family history in order to improved early detection and interventions to prevent/ameliorate related impairment in the course of BD. Large long-term cohort studies are crucial to understand the developmental pathways and long-term course of BD, especially in people at- risk.

Reorienting Latent Variable Modeling for Supervised Learning

Despite its potentials benefits, using prediction targets generated based on latent variable (LV) modeling is not a common practice in supervised learning, a dominating framework for developing prediction models. In supervised learning, it is typically assumed that the outcome to be predicted is clear and readily available, and therefore validating outcomes before predicting them is a foreign concept and an unnecessary step. The usual goal of LV modeling is inference, and therefore using it in supervised learning and in the prediction context requires a major conceptual shift. This study lays out methodological adjustments and conceptual shifts necessary for integrating LV modeling into supervised learning. It is shown that such integration is possible by combining the traditions of LV modeling, psychometrics, and supervised learning. In this interdisciplinary learning framework, generating practical outcomes using LV modeling and systematically validating them based on clinical validators are the two main strategies. In the example using the data from the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) Study, a large pool of candidate outcomes is generated by flexible LV modeling. It is demonstrated that this exploratory situation can be used as an opportunity to tailor desirable prediction targets taking advantage of contemporary science and clinical insights.

A Risk Calculator to Predict Suicide Attempts Among Individuals With Early-Onset Bipolar Disorder

Objectives

To build a one-year risk calculator (RC) to predict individualized risk for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.

Methods

Youth numbering 394 with bipolar disorder who completed ≥2 follow-up assessments (median follow-up length = 13.1 years) in the longitudinal Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study were included. Suicide attempt over follow-up was assessed via the A-LIFE Self-Injurious/Suicidal Behavior scale. Predictors from the literature on suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder that are readily assessed in clinical practice were selected and trichotomized as appropriate (presence past 6 months/lifetime history only/no lifetime history). The RC was trained via boosted multinomial classification trees; predictions were calibrated via Platt scaling. Half of the sample was used to train, and the other half to independently test the RC.

Results

There were 249 suicide attempts among 106 individuals. Ten predictors accounted for >90% of the cross-validated relative influence in the model (AUC = 0.82; in order of relative influence): (1) age of mood disorder onset; (2) non-suicidal self-injurious behavior (trichotomized); (3) current age; (4) psychosis (trichotomized); (5) socioeconomic status; (6) most severe depressive symptoms in past 6 months (trichotomized none/subthreshold/threshold); (7) history of suicide attempt (trichotomized); (8) family history of suicidal behavior; (9) substance use disorder (trichotomized); (10) lifetime history of physical/sexual abuse. For all trichotomized variables, presence in the past 6 months reliably predicted higher risk than lifetime history.

Conclusions

This RC holds promise as a clinical and research tool for prospective identification of individualized high-risk periods for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.Reprinted from Bipolar Disord 2022; 24:749-757, with permission from John Wiley and Sons. Copyright © 2022.

Towards a youth mental health paradigm: a perspective and roadmap

Most mental disorders have a typical onset between 12 and 25 years of age, highlighting the importance of this period for the pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of mental ill-health. This perspective addresses interactions between risk and protective factors and brain development as key pillars accounting for the emergence of psychopathology in youth. Moreover, we propose that novel approaches towards early diagnosis and interventions are required that reflect the evolution of emerging psychopathology, the importance of novel service models, and knowledge exchange between science and practitioners. Taken together, we propose a transformative early intervention paradigm for research and clinical care that could significantly enhance mental health in young people and initiate a shift towards the prevention of severe mental disorders.

A randomized trial of telehealth mindfulness-based cognitive therapy and cognitive behavioral therapy groups for adolescents with mood or attenuated psychosis symptoms

OBJECTIVES

There is substantial evidence that cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) improve symptoms and functioning in adults with mood and psychotic disorders. There has been little work directly comparing these treatments among adolescents with early-onset mood or psychosis symptoms.

METHOD

We conducted a randomized controlled trial comparing remotely administered group CBT to group MBCT for adolescents (ages 13-17) with a mood disorder or attenuated psychosis symptoms. Adolescents attended nine sessions over 2 months; their parents attended parallel groups focused on the same skill practices. Participants were assessed for psychiatric symptoms and functioning at posttreatment and 3 months posttreatment.

RESULTS

Sixty-six youth (Mage = 15.1 years, SD = 1.4; 44 females [66.7%]) initiated the trial (32 in CBT and 34 in MBCT), with 54 retained at posttreatment and 53 at the 3-month follow-up. The treatments were associated with comparable improvements in adolescents' mood, anxiety, attenuated psychosis symptoms, and psychosocial functioning over 5 months. CBT was associated with greater improvements than MBCT in emotion regulation and well-being during the posttreatment period. MBCT (compared to CBT) was associated with greater improvements in social functioning among adolescents with greater childhood adversity. Both treatments had comparable rates of retention, but youth and parents reported more satisfaction with CBT than MBCT.

CONCLUSIONS

The beneficial effect of both treatments in a group telehealth format is encouraging. Due to our limited sample, future research should investigate whether adolescents' history of adversity and treatment preferences replicate as treatment moderators for youth with mood or psychosis symptoms. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting bipolar disorder I/II in individuals at clinical high-risk: Results from a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

No systematic review has estimated the consistency and the magnitude of the risk of developing bipolar disorder I-II (BD-I/II) in individuals at clinical high risk for bipolar disorder (CHR-BD).

METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched until April 2022 in this pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42022346515) PRISMA-compliant systematic review to identify longitudinal studies in individuals meeting pre-defined CHR-BD criteria. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and results were systematically synthesized around CHR-BD criteria across follow-up periods and different subgroups.

RESULTS

Altogether, 13 studies were included reporting on nine prospective independent cohorts (n = 678 individuals at CHR-BD). The mean age of participants was 15.7 years (range 10.1-22.6 years), and 54.2 % were females. The most common CHR-BD subgroup was subthreshold mania (55.5 %), followed by BD-Not Otherwise Specified (BD-NOS: 33.3 %). Development of BD I/II ranged from 7.1 % to 23.4 % after 2 years. Development of BD-I ranged from 3.4 % at 4 years to 23 % at 8 years. Development of BD-II ranged from 10 % at 2 years to 63.8 % at 4 years. The risk of developing BD-I appeared highest in those meeting BD-NOS criteria (23 % at eight years). Predictors of development of BD were identified but remained mostly unreplicated. The quality of the included studies was moderate (NOS = 5.2 ± 1.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Emerging data from research studies point towards the promising utility of CHR-BD criteria. These studies may pave the way to the next generation of research, implementing detection, prognostication, and preventive interventions in individuals at CHR-BD identified and followed in clinical practice.

Early Family Intervention for Youth at Risk for Bipolar Disorder: Psychosocial and Neural Mediators of Outcome

BACKGROUND

The impairing neurodevelopmental course of bipolar disorder (BD) suggests the importance of early intervention for youth in the beginning phases of the illness.

OBJECTIVE

We report the results of a 3-site randomized trial of family-focused therapy for youth at high-risk (FFT-HR) for BD, and explore psychosocial and neuroimaging variables as mediators of treatment effects.

METHODS

High-risk youth (<18 years) with major depressive disorder or other specified BD, active mood symptoms, and a family history of BD were randomly assigned to 4 months of FFT-HR (psychoeducation, communication and problem-solving skills training) or 4 months of enhanced care psychoeducation. Adjunctive pharmacotherapy was provided by study psychiatrists. Neuroimaging scans were conducted before and after psychosocial treatments in eligible participants. Independent evaluators interviewed participants every 4-6 months over 1-4 years regarding symptomatic outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 127 youth (mean 13.2 ± 2.6 years) over a median of 98 weeks, FFT-HR was associated with longer intervals prior to new mood episodes and lower levels of suicidal ideation than enhanced care. Reductions in perceived family conflict mediated the effects of psychosocial interventions on the course of mood symptoms. Among 34 participants with pre-/post-treatment fMRI scans, youth in FFT-HR had (a) stronger resting state connectivity between ventrolateral PFC and anterior default mode network, and (b) increased activity of dorsolateral and medial PFC in emotion processing and problem-solving tasks, compared to youth in enhanced care.

CONCLUSION

FFT-HR may delay new mood episodes in symptomatic youth with familial liability to BD. Putative treatment mechanisms include neural adaptations suggestive of improved emotion regulation.

Staging the bipolar disorders: Are early stages at too early a stage for intervention?

OBJECTIVES

A number of staging models have been generated for the bipolar disorders, which include pre-onset as well as post-onset stages. Some models propose treatments for those at the pre-onset stage, a recommendation which is critiqued here.

METHODS

Several exemplar staging models are overviewed, and a critique is provided.

RESULTS

The critique argues against intervention at a pre-onset stage, in light of there being limited risk factors, unquantified sensitivity and specificity data for most putative onset illness risk factors, and thus there is the risk of overtreatment. Also, it is possible that many of the recommended interventions for those at risk of a bipolar disorder may have general non-specific benefits for those at risk.

CONCLUSIONS

While retaining a pre-onset phase in the staging model, it would appear wiser for it to not be populated with recommended interventions until they have a firmer empirical base.

Conceptualizing eating disorder recovery research: Current perspectives and future research directions

BACKGROUND

How we research eating disorder (ED) recovery impacts what we know (perceive as fact) about it. Traditionally, research has focused more on the "what" of recovery (e.g., establishing criteria for recovery, reaching consensus definitions) than the "how" of recovery research (e.g., type of methodologies, triangulation of perspectives). In this paper we aim to provide an overview of the ED field's current perspectives on recovery, discuss how our methodologies shape what is known about recovery, and suggest a broadening of our methodological "toolkits" in order to form a more complete picture of recovery. BODY: This paper examines commonly used methodologies in research, and explores how incorporating different perspectives can add to our understanding of the recovery process. To do this, we (1) provide an overview of commonly used methodologies (quantitative, qualitative), (2) consider their benefits and limitations, (3) explore newer approaches, including mixed-methods, creative methods (e.g., Photovoice, digital storytelling), and multi-methods (e.g., quantitative, qualitative, creative methods, psycho/physiological, behavioral, laboratory, online observations), and (4) suggest that broadening our methodological "toolkits" could spur more nuanced and specific insights about ED recoveries. We propose a potential future research model that would ideally have a multi-methods design, incorporate different perspectives (e.g., expanding recruitment of diverse participants, including supportive others, in study co-creation), and a longitudinal course (e.g., capturing cognitive and emotional recovery, which often comes after physical). In this way, we hope to move the field towards different, more comprehensive, perspectives on ED recovery.

CONCLUSION

Our current perspectives on studying ED recovery leave critical gaps in our knowledge about the process. The traditional research methodologies impact our conceptualization of recovery definitions, and in turn limit our understanding of the phenomenon. We suggest that we expand our range of methodologies, perspectives, and timeframes in research, in order to form a more complete picture of what is possible in recovery; the multiple aspects of an individual's life that can improve, the greater number of people who can recover than previously believed, and the reaffirmation of hope that, even after decades, individuals can begin, and successfully continue, their ED recovery process.

A risk calculator to predict suicide attempts among individuals with early-onset bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVES

To build a one-year risk calculator (RC) to predict individualized risk for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.

METHODS

Youth numbering 394 with bipolar disorder who completed ≥2 follow-up assessments (median follow-up length = 13.1 years) in the longitudinal Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study were included. Suicide attempt over follow-up was assessed via the A-LIFE Self-Injurious/Suicidal Behavior scale. Predictors from the literature on suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder that are readily assessed in clinical practice were selected and trichotomized as appropriate (presence past 6 months/lifetime history only/no lifetime history). The RC was trained via boosted multinomial classification trees; predictions were calibrated via Platt scaling. Half of the sample was used to train, and the other half to independently test the RC.

RESULTS

There were 249 suicide attempts among 106 individuals. Ten predictors accounted for >90% of the cross-validated relative influence in the model (AUC = 0.82; in order of relative influence): (1) age of mood disorder onset; (2) non-suicidal self-injurious behavior (trichotomized); (3) current age; (4) psychosis (trichotomized); (5) socioeconomic status; (6) most severe depressive symptoms in past 6 months (trichotomized none/subthreshold/threshold); (7) history of suicide attempt (trichotomized); (8) family history of suicidal behavior; (9) substance use disorder (trichotomized); (10) lifetime history of physical/sexual abuse. For all trichotomized variables, presence in the past 6 months reliably predicted higher risk than lifetime history.

CONCLUSIONS

This RC holds promise as a clinical and research tool for prospective identification of individualized high-risk periods for suicide attempt in early-onset bipolar disorder.

Mood Instability in Youth at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder

OBJECTIVE

Mood instability is associated with the onset of bipolar disorder (BD) in youth with a family history of the illness. In a clinical trial with youth at high risk for BD, we examined the association between mood instability and symptomatic, psychosocial, and familial functioning over an average of 2 years.

METHOD

Youth (aged 9-17 years) with major depressive disorder or other specified BD, current mood symptoms, and a family history of BD were rated by parents on a mood instability scale. Participants were randomly assigned to 4 months of family-focused therapy or enhanced care psychoeducation, both with medication management as needed. Independent evaluators rated youth every 4-6 months for up to 4 years on symptom severity and psychosocial functioning, whereas parents rated mood instability of the youth and levels of family conflict.

RESULTS

High-risk youth (N = 114; mean age 13.3 ± 2.6 years; 72 female) were followed for an average of 104.3 ± 65.8 weeks (range, 0-255 weeks) after randomization. Youth with other specified BD (vs major depressive disorder), younger age, earlier symptom onset, more severe mood symptoms, lower psychosocial functioning, and more familial conflict over time had higher mood instability ratings throughout the study period. Mood instability mediated the association between baseline diagnosis and mother/offspring conflict at follow-up (Z = 2.88, p = .004, αβ = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.06-0.32). Psychosocial interventions did not moderate these associations.

CONCLUSION

A questionnaire measure of mood instability tracked closely with symptomatic, psychosocial, and family functioning in youth at high risk for BD. Interventions that are successful in reducing mood instability may enhance long-term outcomes among high-risk youth.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

Early Intervention for Youth at Risk for Bipolar Disorder; https://clinicaltrials.gov/; NCT01483391.

Distinguishing between depression in bipolar disorder and unipolar depression using magnetic resonance imaging: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies comparing bipolar and unipolar depression characterize pathophysiological differences between these conditions. However, it is difficult to interpret the current literature due to differences in MRI modalities, analysis methods, and study designs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of publications using MRI to compare individuals with bipolar and unipolar depression. We grouped studies according to MRI modality and task design. Within the discussion, we critically evaluated and summarized the functional MRI research and then further complemented these findings by reviewing the structural MRI literature.

RESULTS

We identified 88 MRI publications comparing participants with bipolar depression and unipolar depressive disorder. Compared to individuals with unipolar depression, participants with bipolar disorder exhibited heightened function, increased within network connectivity, and reduced grey matter volume in salience and central executive network brain regions. Group differences in default mode network function were less consistent but more closely associated with depressive symptoms in participants with unipolar depression but distractibility in bipolar depression.

CONCLUSIONS

When comparing mood disorder groups, the neuroimaging evidence suggests that individuals with bipolar disorder are more influenced by emotional and sensory processing when responding to their environment. In contrast, depressive symptoms and neurofunctional response to emotional stimuli were more closely associated with reduced central executive function and less adaptive cognitive control of emotionally oriented brain regions in unipolar depression. Researchers now need to replicate and refine network-level trends in these heterogeneous mood disorders and further characterize MRI markers associated with early disease onset, progression, and recovery.

The U-shaped relationship between parental age and the risk of bipolar disorder in the offspring: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Parenthood age may affect the risk for the development of different psychiatric disorders in the offspring, including bipolar disorder (BD). The present systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to appraise the relationship between paternal age and risk for BD and to explore the eventual relationship between paternal age and age at onset of BD. We searched the MEDLINE, Scopus, Embase, PsycINFO online databases for original studies from inception, up to December 2021. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted. Sixteen studies participated in the qualitative synthesis, of which k = 14 fetched quantitative data encompassing a total of 13,424,760 participants and 217,089 individuals with BD. Both fathers [adjusted for the age of other parent and socioeconomic status odd ratio - OR = 1.29(95%C.I. = 1.13-1.48)] and mothers aged ≤ 20 years [(OR = 1.23(95%C.I. = 1.14-1.33)] had consistently increased odds of BD diagnosis in their offspring compared to parents aged 25-29 years. Fathers aged ≥ 45 years [adjusted OR = 1.29 (95%C.I. = 1.15-1.46)] and mothers aged 35-39 years [OR = 1.10(95%C.I. = 1.01-1.19)] and 40 years or older [OR = 1.2(95% C.I. = 1.02-1.40)] likewise had inflated odds of BD diagnosis in their offspring compared to parents aged 25-29 years. Early and delayed parenthood are associated with an increased risk of BD in the offspring. Mechanisms underlying this association are largely unknown and may involve a complex interplay between psychosocial, genetic and biological factors, and with different impacts according to sex and age range. Evidence on the association between parental age and illness onset is still tentative but it points towards a possible specific effect of advanced paternal age on early BD-onset.

Predicting the emergence of full-threshold bipolar I, bipolar II and psychotic disorders in young people presenting to early intervention mental health services

BACKGROUND

Predictors of new-onset bipolar disorder (BD) or psychotic disorder (PD) have been proposed on the basis of retrospective or prospective studies of 'at-risk' cohorts. Few studies have compared concurrently or longitudinally factors associated with the onset of BD or PDs in youth presenting to early intervention services. We aimed to identify clinical predictors of the onset of full-threshold (FT) BD or PD in this population.

METHOD

Multi-state Markov modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline characteristics and the likelihood of the onset of FT BD or PD in youth (aged 12-30) presenting to mental health services.

RESULTS

Of 2330 individuals assessed longitudinally, 4.3% (n = 100) met criteria for new-onset FT BD and 2.2% (n = 51) met criteria for a new-onset FT PD. The emergence of FT BD was associated with older age, lower social and occupational functioning, mania-like experiences (MLE), suicide attempts, reduced incidence of physical illness, childhood-onset depression, and childhood-onset anxiety. The emergence of a PD was associated with older age, male sex, psychosis-like experiences (PLE), suicide attempts, stimulant use, and childhood-onset depression.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying risk factors for the onset of either BD or PDs in young people presenting to early intervention services is assisted not only by the increased focus on MLE and PLE, but also by recognising the predictive significance of poorer social function, childhood-onset anxiety and mood disorders, and suicide attempts prior to the time of entry to services. Secondary prevention may be enhanced by greater attention to those risk factors that are modifiable or shared by both illness trajectories.

Overview of CAPICE-Childhood and Adolescence Psychopathology: unravelling the complex etiology by a large Interdisciplinary Collaboration in Europe-an EU Marie Skłodowska-Curie International Training Network

The Roadmap for Mental Health and Wellbeing Research in Europe (ROAMER) identified child and adolescent mental illness as a priority area for research. CAPICE (Childhood and Adolescence Psychopathology: unravelling the complex etiology by a large Interdisciplinary Collaboration in Europe) is a European Union (EU) funded training network aimed at investigating the causes of individual differences in common childhood and adolescent psychopathology, especially depression, anxiety, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. CAPICE brings together eight birth and childhood cohorts as well as other cohorts from the EArly Genetics and Life course Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortium, including twin cohorts, with unique longitudinal data on environmental exposures and mental health problems, and genetic data on participants. Here we describe the objectives, summarize the methodological approaches and initial results, and present the dissemination strategy of the CAPICE network. Besides identifying genetic and epigenetic variants associated with these phenotypes, analyses have been performed to shed light on the role of genetic factors and the interplay with the environment in influencing the persistence of symptoms across the lifespan. Data harmonization and building an advanced data catalogue are also part of the work plan. Findings will be disseminated to non-academic parties, in close collaboration with the Global Alliance of Mental Illness Advocacy Networks-Europe (GAMIAN-Europe).

Limited Prosocial Emotions in a Clinical Population of Children and Adolescents: Proposal for Core and Ancillary Characteristics

OBJECTIVE

Limited prosocial emotions (LPE) has been recently incorporated into international classifications as a specifier for conduct disorder in the DSM-5 and for all disruptive behavioural disorders in the ICD-11. The aims of the current work were to determine (a) the accuracy of each of the characteristics used to assess the LPE specifier and (b) whether the manner in which symptoms group together supports the idea of LPE having core characteristics.

METHOD

Trained clinicians conducted interviews and determined LPE characteristics using responses from 74 parent/guardian and child/adolescent participants.

RESULTS

The distribution of LPE characteristics among those participants with LPE (n = 13) was compared to those with only one LPE characteristic (n = 11). The proposal of callous lack of empathy (CLE) and shallow deficient affect (SDA) as core characteristics was supported by strong associations with the presence of the LPE specifier, larger specificity, and sensitivity indices than those for unconcerned about performance and lack of remorse or guilt, as well as by a robust aggregation in a latent class analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

CLE and SDA could be considered as core characteristics of LPE in children and adolescents.

Higher socioeconomic status and less parental psychopathology improve prognosis in youths with bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

To identify prospectively ascertained individual and family factors that are associated with improvement in Bipolar Disorder (BD) among youths who initially presented with poor course.

METHODS

82 youths with BD with persistent poor mood symptomatology ("predominantly ill course") were compared to 70 youths with BD who at intake had poor course, but showed improvement during the follow-up ("ill with improving course"), (ages 12.3 ± 3.3, vs. 11.7 ± 3.3 years old, at intake). Improvement was measured by the percentage of time euthymic during a mean follow-up of 12.8 years. Youths and parents were interviewed to assess psychopathology, functioning, treatment, and familial functioning and psychopathology.

RESULTS

Compared to the ill group, since intake, the improving group showed significantly lower subthreshold depression and hypo/mania, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, and Disruptive Behavior Disorders. Parental Socioeconomic Status (SES) remained unchanged over time in the ill group, but progressively increased in the improving group. Importantly, the change in SES predated the improvement in the mood trajectory. The most influential variables that predicted improvement were higher SES, and absence of parental BD and Substance Use Disorder (SUD). Parental SUD also negatively affected the parental SES, which was directly associated with worse mood course.

LIMITATIONS

Predominantly self-reported White samples may limit generalizability; other factors potentially associated with outcome (e.g., treatment adherence), were not ascertained.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to treating mood/comorbid psychopathology in symptomatic BD youths, to improve their prognosis, it is crucial to address their parent's BD and SUD and promote parental education/employment.

Psychosocial Treatments for Bipolar Disorder in Children and Adolescents

Evidence suggests that adjunctive psychosocial intervention for the treatment of pediatric bipolar spectrum disorders (BPSDs) is effective, feasible, and highly accepted as both an acute and maintenance treatment for youth with BPSD diagnoses as well as a preventive treatment for high-risk youth who are either asymptomatic or exhibit subsyndromal mood symptoms. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of all known evidence-based interventions, including detailed descriptions of treatment targets and core components, results of clinical trials, and updated research on mediators and moderators of treatment efficacy. Treatments are presented systematically according to level of empirical support (i.e., well established, probably efficacious, possibly efficacious, experimental, or questionable); upcoming and ongoing trials are included when possible. In line with a staging approach, preventive interventions are presented separately. Recommendations for best practices based on age, stage, and additional evidence-based child and family factors shown to affect treatment outcomes are provided. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, Volume 18 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Effects of family intervention on psychosocial functioning and mood symptoms of youth at high risk for bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVES

Family-focused therapy (FFT) is associated with reduced rates of mood episodes among youth at high risk for bipolar disorder (BD). In a randomized trial of FFT compared to a psychoeducation-only treatment (enhanced care, EC), we sought to determine if changes in psychosocial functioning mediate mood improvements among high-risk youth.

METHOD

119 youths with active mood symptoms and a family history of BD were randomized to either 4 months of FFT or EC. Participants were rated on mood symptom severity and provided self-ratings of psychosocial functioning across domains of family, social-emotional, and school functioning. Repeated measures mixed modeling and bootstrapped mediational analyses evaluated the effects of treatment conditions and psychosocial functioning on mood improvements immediately posttreatment and over 2 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

Youths in FFT reported greater improvements in family functioning over 24 months compared to those in EC, F(5, 76.8) = 3.1, p < .05. Improvements in family functioning partially mediated participants' improvements in depressive symptoms, B = -0.22, p < .01; 95% CI [-0.55, -0.02]. The effects of FFT versus EC on family functioning were stronger among youth with comorbid anxiety and externalizing disorders than among youth without these comorbid disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a temporal link between changes in youths' perceptions of family functioning and improvements in depressive symptoms among high-risk youth in FFT. Family conflict and cohesion are important treatment targets for youth who present with early signs of BD. Future studies should examine whether changes in observational measures of family interaction precede improvements in mood among high-risk youth. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Transitioning to bipolar disorder: A systematic review of prospective high-risk studies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Bipolar disorder is a highly heritable condition, which can progress from an asymptomatic period in at-risk individuals to a potentially debilitating illness. Identifying individuals who are at a high risk of developing bipolar disorder may provide an opportunity for early intervention to improve outcomes. The main objective of this systematic review is to provide an overview of prospective studies that evaluated the incidence and predictors of transitioning to bipolar disorder among high-risk individuals.

RECENT FINDINGS

Twenty-three publications from 16 cohorts were included in the final review. Most studies focused on familial high-risk groups, while others either used clinical or a combination of clinical and genetic risk factors. The follow-up length was from 1 to 21 years and the rate of conversion to bipolar disorder was between 8 and 25% among different studies. Overall, the results suggest that a combination of genetic and clinical risk factors; namely, subthreshold (hypo)manic symptoms and elevated depressive symptoms, may be required to optimally predict conversion to bipolar disorder.

SUMMARY

The concept of high-risk for bipolar disorder is still in its infancy. Further discussions are needed to work towards an expert consensus on the high-risk criteria for bipolar disorder, taking into account both clinical and genetic risk factors.

Social impairment in relation to clinical symptoms in youth at high risk for bipolar disorder

AIM

Social impairment is common in individuals with bipolar disorder (BD), although its role in youths at high-risk for BD (i.e., mood symptoms in the context of a family history of BD) is not well understood. Social impairment takes many forms including social withdrawal, relational aggression, physical aggression, and victimization. The aim of this study was to explore the links between social impairment and clinical symptoms in youth at high-risk for BD.

METHODS

The sample included 127 youths with elevations in mood symptoms (depression or hypomania) and at least one first and/or second degree relative with BD. Measures of youths' current psychopathology (i.e., depressive and manic severity, suicidality, anxiety, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD]) were regressed onto youths' self-reports of social impairment (i.e., social withdrawal, relational aggression, physical aggression, and victimization).

RESULTS

Depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, and anxiety symptoms were related to social withdrawal. Suicidal ideation was also related to reactive aggression. ADHD symptoms related to reactive and proactive aggression as well as relational victimization. Manic symptoms were not associated with social impairment in this sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cross-sectional, study findings point to potential treatment targets related to social functioning. Specifically, social withdrawal should be a target for treatment of childhood depressive and anxiety symptoms. Treatments that focus on social skills and cognitive functioning deficits associated with BD may also have clinical utility.

Childhood Trauma May Increase Risk of Psychosis and Mood Disorder in Genetically High-risk Children and Adolescents by Enhancing the Accumulation of Risk Indicators

Background

Genetically high-risk children carry indicators of brain dysfunctions that adult patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder display. The accumulation of risk indicators would have a higher predictive value of a later transition to psychosis or mood disorder than each individual risk indicator. Since more than 50% of adult patients report having been exposed to childhood trauma, we investigated whether exposure to trauma during childhood was associated with the early accumulation of risk indicators in youths at genetic risk.

Methods

We first inspected the characteristics of childhood trauma in 200 young offspring (51% male) born to a parent affected by DSM-IV schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or major depressive disorder. A subsample of 109 offspring (51% male) had measurements on four risk indicators: cognitive impairments, psychotic-like experiences, nonpsychotic nonmood childhood DSM diagnoses, poor global functioning. Trauma was assessed from direct interviews and reviews of lifetime medical and school records of offspring.

Results

Trauma was present in 86 of the 200 offspring (43%). The relative risk of accumulating risk indicators in offspring exposed to trauma was 3.33 (95% CI 1.50, 7.36), but more pronounced in males (RR = 4.64, 95% CI 1.71, 12.6) than females (RR = 2.01, 95% CI 0.54, 7.58).

Conclusion

Childhood trauma would be related to the accumulation of developmental precursors of major psychiatric disorders and more so in young boys at high genetic risk. Our findings may provide leads for interventions targeting the early mechanisms underlying the established relation between childhood trauma and adult psychiatric disorders.

Validation of the youth mood recurrences risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

The ability to predict an individual's risk of mood episode recurrence can facilitate personalized medicine in bipolar disorder (BD). We sought to externally validate, in an adult sample, a risk calculator of mood episode recurrence developed in youth/young adults with BD from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study.

METHODS

Adult participants from the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study (CDS; N=258; mean(SD) age=35.5(12.0) years; mean follow-up=24.9 years) were utilized as a sample to validate the youth COBY risk calculator for onset of depressive, manic, or any mood episodes.

RESULTS

In this older validation sample, the risk calculator predicted recurrence of any episode over 1, 2, 3, or 5-year follow-up intervals, with Area Under the Curves (AUCs) approximating 0.77. The AUC for prediction of depressive episodes was about 0.81 for each of the time windows, which was higher than for manic or hypomanic episodes (AUC=0.72). While the risk calculator was well-calibrated across the range of risk scores, it systematically underestimated risk in the CDS sample by about 20%. The length of current remission was a highly significant predictor of recurrence risk in the CDS sample.

LIMITATIONS

Predominantly self-reported White samples may limit generalizability; the risk calculator does not assess more proximal risk (e.g., 1 month).

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of mood episode recurrence can be predicted with good accuracy in youth and adults with BD in remission. The risk calculators may help identify higher risk BD subgroups for treatment and research.

Translating RDoC to Real-World Impact in Developmental Psychopathology: A Neurodevelopmental Framework for Application of Mental Health Risk Calculators

The National Institute of Mental Health Research Domain Criteria's (RDoC) has prompted a paradigm shift from categorical psychiatric disorders to considering multiple levels of vulnerability for probabilistic risk of disorder. However, the lack of neurodevelopmentally-based tools for clinical decision-making has limited RDoC's real-world impact. Integration with developmental psychopathology principles and statistical methods actualize the clinical implementation of RDoC to inform neurodevelopmental risk. In this conceptual paper, we introduce the probabilistic mental health risk calculator as an innovation for such translation and lay out a research agenda for generating an RDoC- and developmentally-informed paradigm that could be applied to predict a range of developmental psychopathologies from early childhood to young adulthood. We discuss methods that weigh the incremental utility for prediction based on intensity and burden of assessment, the addition of developmental change patterns, considerations for assessing outcomes, and integrative data approaches. Throughout, we illustrate the risk calculator approach with different neurodevelopmental pathways and phenotypes. Finally, we discuss real-world implementation of these methods for improving early identification and prevention of developmental psychopathology. We propose that mental health risk calculators can build a needed bridge between RDoC's multiple units of analysis and developmental science.

High risk for psychiatric disorders in bipolar offspring. A four years prospective study

Bipolar disorder (BD) has a large hereditary component. It is a disorder that begins in early adulthood, but about which it has been described a premorbid period preceding the onset of BD. During this herald expression psychiatric disorders and symptoms, such as depressive, manic, psychotic, anxious and others, may appear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the psychopathological profile of a Bipolar Offspring (BO) group compared with the Community Control Offspring (CCO) group, and its evolution over time, including subthreshold symptoms and mental disorders.

METHODS

We conducted an observational mixed cohort study, with a prospective design. We included subjects from six to 30 years of age, from the region of Antioquia, Colombia. A total of 131 subjects from the risk group BO and 150 subjects from the CCO group were evaluated through validated psychiatric diagnostic interviews (K-SADS-PL and DIGS) at baseline and at 4 years follow up. All interviews were carried out by a staff blind to parent diagnoses. Follow-up assessment were complete in 72% of the offspring. Forty-two subjects were excluded as they surpassed the age of 30 years, and only 46 subjects were not followed (change of address or did not consent to participate).

RESULTS

Compared with the CCO group, the BO group had a higher frequency of affective disorder, psychotic disorder, externalizing disorders and use of the psychoactive substances during both assessments at time 1 and 2. The magnitude of the differences between the groups increased when they reach time 2. The BO group had a greater risk for presenting subthreshold symptoms and definitive psychiatric disorders, such as affective disorders, psychotic disorders and externalizing disorders. In addition, the BO group had a younger age of onset for psychoactive substances consumption.

CONCLUSION

During the follow-up period, the BO group had a higher risk of presenting mental disorders compared with the CCO group. The most relevant symptoms and disorders that could precede the onset of BD were depressive, bipolar not otherwise specified, psychotic and substance use.

Development and validation of a risk calculator for major mood disorders among the offspring of bipolar parents using information collected in routine clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Family history is a significant risk factor for bipolar disorders (BD), but the magnitude of risk varies considerably between individuals within and across families. Accurate risk estimation may increase motivation to reduce modifiable risk exposures and identify individuals appropriate for monitoring over the peak risk period. Our objective was to develop and independently replicate an individual risk calculator for bipolar spectrum disorders among the offspring of BD parents using data collected in routine clinical practice.

METHODS

Data from the longitudinal Canadian High-Risk Offspring cohort study collected from 1996 to 2020 informed the development of a 5 and 10-year risk calculator using parametric time-to-event models with a cure fraction and a generalized gamma distribution. The calculator was then externally validated using data from the Lausanne-Geneva High-Risk Offspring cohort study collected from 1996 to 2020. A time-varying C-index by age in years was used to estimate the probability that the model correctly classified risk. Bias corrected estimates and 95% confidence limits were derived using a jackknife resampling approach.

FINDINGS

The primary outcome was age of onset of a major mood disorder. The risk calculator was most accurate at classifying risk in mid to late adolescence in the Canadian cohort (n = 285), and a similar pattern was replicated in the Swiss cohort (n = 128). Specifically, the time-varying C-index indicated that there was approximately a 70% chance that the model would correctly predict which of two 15-year-olds would be more likely to develop the outcome in the future. External validation within a smaller Swiss cohort showed mixed results.

INTERPRETATION

Findings suggest that this model may be a useful clinical tool in routine practice for improved individualized risk estimation of bipolar spectrum disorders among the adolescent offspring of a BD parent; however, risk estimation in younger high-risk offspring is less accurate, perhaps reflecting the evolving nature of psychopathology in early childhood. Based on external validation with a Swiss cohort, the risk calculator may not be as predictive in more heterogenous high-risk populations.

FUNDING

The Canadian High-Risk Study has been funded by consecutive operating grants from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, currently CIHR PJT Grant 152796 he Lausanne-Geneva high-risk study was and is supported by five grants from the Swiss National Foundation (#3200-040,677, #32003B-105,969, #32003B-118,326, #3200-049,746 and #3200-061,974), three grants from the Swiss National Foundation for the National Centres of Competence in Research project "The Synaptic Bases of Mental Diseases" (#125,759, #158,776, and #51NF40 - 185,897), and a grant from GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Genetics.

Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people

Preventive approaches have latterly gained traction for improving mental health in young people. In this paper, we first appraise the conceptual foundations of preventive psychiatry, encompassing the public health, Gordon's, US Institute of Medicine, World Health Organization, and good mental health frameworks, and neurodevelopmentally-sensitive clinical staging models. We then review the evidence supporting primary prevention of psychotic, bipolar and common mental disorders and promotion of good mental health as potential transformative strategies to reduce the incidence of these disorders in young people. Within indicated approaches, the clinical high-risk for psychosis paradigm has received the most empirical validation, while clinical high-risk states for bipolar and common mental disorders are increasingly becoming a focus of attention. Selective approaches have mostly targeted familial vulnerability and non-genetic risk exposures. Selective screening and psychological/psychoeducational interventions in vulnerable subgroups may improve anxiety/depressive symptoms, but their efficacy in reducing the incidence of psychotic/bipolar/common mental disorders is unproven. Selective physical exercise may reduce the incidence of anxiety disorders. Universal psychological/psychoeducational interventions may improve anxiety symptoms but not prevent depressive/anxiety disorders, while universal physical exercise may reduce the incidence of anxiety disorders. Universal public health approaches targeting school climate or social determinants (demographic, economic, neighbourhood, environmental, social/cultural) of mental disorders hold the greatest potential for reducing the risk profile of the population as a whole. The approach to promotion of good mental health is currently fragmented. We leverage the knowledge gained from the review to develop a blueprint for future research and practice of preventive psychiatry in young people: integrating universal and targeted frameworks; advancing multivariable, transdiagnostic, multi-endpoint epidemiological knowledge; synergically preventing common and infrequent mental disorders; preventing physical and mental health burden together; implementing stratified/personalized prognosis; establishing evidence-based preventive interventions; developing an ethical framework, improving prevention through education/training; consolidating the cost-effectiveness of preventive psychiatry; and decreasing inequalities. These goals can only be achieved through an urgent individual, societal, and global level response, which promotes a vigorous collaboration across scientific, health care, societal and governmental sectors for implementing preventive psychiatry, as much is at stake for young people with or at risk for emerging mental disorders.

The association between manic symptoms in adolescence and preschool symptoms: The importance of family history

OBJECTIVES

First, to investigate whether specific manic symptoms in preschool predict manic symptom severity in adolescence. Second, to investigate the interaction between family history (FH) of bipolar disorder (BP) and preschool manic symptoms in predicting later adolescent manic symptom severity.

METHODS

This analysis utilized data from the Preschool Depression Study (PDS) which followed 306 preschoolers aged 3-6 years over time since 2003. Only subjects who had data both at baseline (age 3-6 years) and at or after age 12 were included (n = 122). Baseline manic symptom severity scores and diagnoses were assessed by the Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment (PAPA). Manic symptoms severity at age ≥12 was assessed by the Kiddie Mania Rating Scale (KMRS). FH were ascertained by Family Interview for Genetic Studies (FIGS). Multilevel models of KMRS total score at age ≥12 by preschool mania symptoms with gender, baseline age, baseline ADHD, as well as baseline MDD diagnosis as covariates, and false discovery rate correction were used in statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Hypertalkativity, flight of ideas, uninhibited gregariousness, decreased need for sleep (DNFS), and increased motor pressure/ motor activity/ energy in preschool were associated with increased KMRS score at age ≥12. Racing thoughts, inappropriate laughing, and DNFS in early childhood were associated with higher manic symptoms in adolescence in subjects with FH of BP compared to those without FH.

CONCLUSION

The longitudinal clinical importance of displaying manic symptoms (racing thoughts, inappropriate laughing, and DNFS) in early childhood varies by FH. Among the aforementioned symptoms, DNFS was a robust predictor of later manic symptoms. Assessing FH of BP is very important in clinical risk prediction from early childhood.

25 Years of the International Bipolar Collaborative Network (BCN)

BACKGROUND

The Stanley Foundation Bipolar Treatment Outcome Network (SFBN) recruited more than 900 outpatients from 1995 to 2002 from 4 sites in the United States (US) and 3 in the Netherlands and Germany (abbreviated as Europe). When funding was discontinued, the international group of investigators continued to work together as the Bipolar Collaborative Network (BCN), publishing so far 87 peer-reviewed manuscripts. On the 25th year anniversary of its founding, publication of a brief summary of some of the major findings appeared appropriate. Important insights into the course and treatment of adult outpatients with bipolar disorder were revealed and some methodological issues and lessons learned will be discussed.

RESULTS

The illness is recurrent and pernicious and difficult to bring to a long-term remission. Virtually all aspects of the illness were more prevalent in the US compared to Europe. This included vastly more patients with early onset illness and those with more psychosocial adversity in childhood; more genetic vulnerability; more anxiety and substance abuse comorbidity; more episodes and rapid cycling; and more treatment non-responsiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings provide a road map for a new round of much needed clinical treatment research studies. They also emphasize the need for the formation of a new network focusing on child and youth onset of mood disorders with a goal to achieve early precision diagnostics for intervention and prevention in attempting to make the course of bipolar illness more benign.

Affective Temperament Traits Measured by TEMPS-A and Their Associations with Cognitive Functions among Offspring of Parents with Bipolar Disorder with and without Subthreshold Symptoms

BACKGROUND

To our knowledge, there have been no studies that have examined affective temperament traits in offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (BD). The aim of this study was to identify affective temperamental characteristics and their relationships with cognitive functions in BD offspring.

METHODS

A group of BD offspring were enrolled in this study. Subthreshold symptoms were used to categorize participants as either symptomatic offspring (SO) (n=60) or asymptomatic offspring (AO) (n=52). Healthy controls (HCs; n=48) were also enrolled for comparison. We used the Chinese Short Version of Temperament Evaluation of Memphis, Pisa, Paris, and San Diego, Auto-questionnaire (TEMPS-A) to measure temperament traits, and MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB) to measure cognitive functions.

RESULTS

We observed higher cyclothymic, irritable, depressive and anxious temperament scores in SO than AO when compared to HCs. In BD offspring (SO and AO), cyclothymic individuals performed better in processing speed and verbal learning than depressive individuals and better in attention/vigilance than irritable and anxious individuals; hyperthymic individuals performed better in processing speed than depressive individuals. We also observed that a higher cyclothymic score was associated with better verbal learning and verbal fluency, a higher hyperthymic score was associated with better processing speed and verbal learning; while a higher depressive score was associated with worse processing speed, verbal learning and verbal fluency and a higher irritable score was associated with worse attention/vigilance.

CONCLUSIONS

The relationships between cognitive functions and measures of temperament suggest that these features may share neurobiological substrates and appear to be heritable.

Development and Open Trial of a Technology-Enhanced Family Intervention for Adolescents at Risk for Mood Disorders

AIM

Integrating psychosocial interventions with mobile apps may increase treatment engagement among adolescents. We examined the user experience, uptake, and clinical effects of a mobile-enhanced family-focused therapy (FFT) among adolescents at risk for mood disorders.

METHOD

We created a mobile app containing 12 lesson plans corresponding to content of weekly FFT sessions, with modules concerning mood management, family communication and problem-solving. We pilot tested the app in an open trial of FFT (12 sessions in 18 weeks) for adolescents who had active depressive or hypomanic symptoms, a parent with mood disorder, and at least one parent who expressed high levels of criticism. Teens and parents made daily and weekly ratings of youths' moods, amount of parent/offspring criticism, and practice of FFT psychoeducational, communication or problem-solving skills. Independent evaluators interviewed adolescents at baseline and every 9 weeks over 27 weeks to measure symptom trajectories.

RESULTS

Participants were adolescents (n=22; mean age 15.4 ± 1.8 years; 45.5% female) and their 34 parents. Completion of requested app assessment and skill practices averaged 46%-65% among adolescents and parents over 18 weeks of treatment. Adolescents showed significant improvement in clinician-rated depression scores over 27 weeks (Cohen's d=1.58, 95% CI, 0.83 to 2.32) and reported reductions in the amount of perceived criticism expressed by parents.

LIMITATIONS

The uncontrolled design limits inferences about whether the mobile app augmented the effects of FFT on moods or family relationships.

CONCLUSIONS

Mobile applications may enhance users' responses to family therapy and provide clinicians with information regarding clinical status. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03913013.

Identifying Adolescents at Risk for Depression: A Prediction Score Performance in Cohorts Based in 3 Different Continents

OBJECTIVE

Prediction models have become frequent in the medical literature, but most published studies are conducted in a single setting. Heterogeneity between development and validation samples has been posited as a major obstacle for the generalization of models. We aimed to develop a multivariable prognostic model using sociodemographic variables easily obtainable from adolescents at age 15 to predict a depressive disorder diagnosis at age 18 and to evaluate its generalizability in 2 samples from diverse socioeconomic and cultural settings.

METHOD

Data from the 1993 Pelotas Birth Cohort were used to develop the prediction model, and its generalizability was evaluated in 2 representative cohort studies: the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study and the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study.

RESULTS

At age 15, 2,192 adolescents with no evidence of current or previous depression were included (44.6% male). The apparent C-statistic of the models derived in Pelotas ranged from 0.76 to 0.79, and the model obtained from a penalized logistic regression was selected for subsequent external evaluation. Major discrepancies between the samples were identified, impacting the external prognostic performance of the model (Dunedin and E-Risk C-statistics of 0.63 and 0.59, respectively). The implementation of recommended strategies to account for this heterogeneity among samples improved the model's calibration in both samples.

CONCLUSION

An adolescent depression risk score comprising easily obtainable predictors was developed with good prognostic performance in a Brazilian sample. Heterogeneity among settings was not trivial, but strategies to deal with sample diversity were identified as pivotal for providing better risk stratification across samples. Future efforts should focus on developing better methodological approaches for incorporating heterogeneity in prognostic research.

Environmental Risk Factors for Bipolar Disorders and High-Risk States in Adolescence: A Systematic Review

Background and objectives: A deeper comprehension of the role that environmental risk factors play in the development of adolescent Bipolar Disorder (BD), as well as in the evolution of high-risk states for BD, may entangle further prevention and treatment advances. The present systematic review is aimed at critically summarizing evidence about the role that environmental risk factors play in the development of BD in adolescence and their interaction with BD high-risk states. Materials and Methods: MEDLINE/Pubmed, Scopus and Web of Science datasets were systematically searched until 4 September 2020. Original studies that reported information about the role of environmental risk factors in the development of BD during adolescence, or assessing their influence on the development of psychopathology in high-risk states for BD, were considered for inclusion. Two blind researchers performed title/abstract, full-text screening, and hand-screening of relevant references. The risk of bias was assessed by means of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Results: Fourteen studies were included in the review. Negative stressful life events, particularly sexual and physical abuse, but also emotional mistreatment, were associated with more severe psychopathology in adolescents with BD, as well as with higher risk for developing mood disorders in BD offspring. Similar findings were detected for familial environment-related features, such as parental rejection and low perceived care, while no univocal results were found when analyzing familial functioning. Conclusions: The present systematic review confirmed the relevant role that environmental risk factors, particularly negative stressful live events and family-related features, play in the development of BD psychopathology during adolescence. Future studies are expected to clarify possible further environmental factors that may be implicated in the development of BD during youth that may serve as target of prevention and early treatment strategies.

Early identification of bipolar disorder among young adults - a 22-year community birth cohort

OBJECTIVE

We set forth to build a prediction model of individuals who would develop bipolar disorder (BD) using machine learning techniques in a large birth cohort.

METHODS

A total of 3748 subjects were studied at birth, 11, 15, 18, and 22 years of age in a community birth cohort. We used the elastic net algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation to predict which individuals would develop BD at endpoint (22 years) at each follow-up visit before diagnosis (from birth up to 18 years). Afterward, we used the best model to calculate the subgroups of subjects at higher and lower risk of developing BD and analyzed the clinical differences among them.

RESULTS

A total of 107 (2.8%) individuals within the cohort presented with BD type I, 26 (0.6%) with BD type II, and 87 (2.3%) with BD not otherwise specified. Frequency of female individuals was 58.82% (n = 150) in the BD sample and 53.02% (n = 1868) among the unaffected population. The model with variables assessed at the 18-year follow-up visit achieved the best performance: AUC 0.82 (CI 0.75-0.88), balanced accuracy 0.75, sensitivity 0.72, and specificity 0.77. The most important variables to detect BD at the 18-year follow-up visit were suicide risk, generalized anxiety disorder, parental physical abuse, and financial problems. Additionally, the high-risk subgroup of BD showed a high frequency of drug use and depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a risk calculator for BD incorporating both demographic and clinical variables from a 22-year birth cohort. Our findings support previous studies in high-risk samples showing the significance of suicide risk and generalized anxiety disorder prior to the onset of BD, and highlight the role of social factors and adverse life events.

Longitudinal trajectories of mood symptoms and global functioning in youth at high risk for bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the longitudinal course of mood symptoms and functioning in youth who are at high risk for bipolar disorder (BD). Identifying distinct course trajectories and predictors of those trajectories may help refine treatment approaches.

METHODS

This study examined the longitudinal course of mood symptoms and functioning ratings in 126 youth at high risk for BD based on family history and early mood symptoms. Participants were enrolled in a randomized trial of family-focused therapy and followed longitudinally (mean 2.0 years, SD = 53.6 weeks).

RESULTS

Using latent class growth analyses (LCGA), we observed three mood trajectories. All youth started the study with active mood symptoms. Following the index mood episode, participants were classified as having a "significantly improving course" (n = 41, 32.5% of sample), a "moderately symptomatic course" (n = 21, 16.7%), or a "predominantly symptomatic course" (n = 64, 50.8%) at follow-up. More severe depression, anxiety, and suicidality at the study's baseline were associated with a poorer course of illness. LCGA also revealed three trajectories of global functioning that closely corresponded to symptom trajectories; however, fewer youth exhibited functional recovery than exhibited symptomatic recovery.

LIMITATIONS

Mood trajectories were assessed within the context of a treatment trial. Ratings of mood and functioning were based on retrospective recall.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests considerable heterogeneity in the course trajectories of youth at high risk for BD, with a significant proportion (32.5%) showing long-term remission of symptoms. Treatments that enhance psychosocial functioning may be just as important as those that ameliorate symptoms in youth at risk for BD.

Predicting Personalized Risk of Mood Recurrences in Youths and Young Adults With Bipolar Spectrum Disorder

OBJECTIVE

With each recurrence the prognosis of bipolar disorder (BD) worsens, indicating the need to identify the factors associated with increased recurrence risk. The course of BD is heterogenous and although risk factors for recurrence for the group as a whole have been reported in the literature, identification of risk factors for a specific individual are crucial for developing personalized treatments.

METHOD

A total of 363 recovered BD youths/young adults from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study were included. Participants were evaluated on average every 7 months for a median of 12.5 years and interviewed with standard instruments. Risk factors of recurrence from the literature were used to build a risk calculator (RC) to predict recurrence risk at different time intervals.

RESULTS

Approximately 80% of participants had at least one syndromal recurrence and 60% had ≥2 recurrences, particularly depressions. The 6-month and 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year RC showed an accuracy between 72% and 82% for predicting any mood recurrences, and up to 80% for depression and 89% for hypo/mania (sensitivity/specificity both 0.74). The most influential recurrence risk factors were shorter recovery lengths, younger age at assessment, earlier mood onset, and more severe prior depression. Although important, other factors associated with recurrence risk, such as interepisodic subsyndromal mood symptoms and comorbidities, did not influence the RC score beyond factors noted above.

CONCLUSION

The RC provides a useful tool for predicting an individual's recurrence risk of depression and/or hypo/mania in BD youths and for developing personalized interventions and informing research. Replication studies are warranted.

Risk Calculators in Bipolar Disorder: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Early recognition of bipolar disorder improves the prognosis and decreases the burden of the disease. However, there is a significant delay in diagnosis. Multiple risk factors for bipolar disorder have been identified and a population at high-risk for the disorder has been more precisely defined. These advances have allowed the development of risk calculators to predict individual risk of conversion to bipolar disorder. This review aims to identify the risk calculators for bipolar disorder and assess their clinical applicability.

METHODS

A systematic review of original studies on the development of risk calculators in bipolar disorder was performed. The studies' quality was evaluated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Form for Cohort Studies and according to recommendations of the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis Initiative.

RESULTS

Three studies met the inclusion criteria; one developed a risk calculator of conversion from major depressive episode to bipolar disorder; one of conversion to new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in offspring of parents with bipolar disorder; and the last one of conversion in youths with bipolar disorder not-otherwise-specified.

CONCLUSIONS

The calculators reviewed in this article present good discrimination power for bipolar disorder, although future replication and validation of the models is needed.

Toward prevention of bipolar disorder in at-risk children: Potential strategies ahead of the data

BACKGROUND

Despite the well-documented negative impact of untreated bipolar illness, approaches to early intervention in childhood-onset bipolar and related disorders are not well delineated.

METHODS

We reviewed the extant treatment literature on children at high risk for bipolar disorder, with definitions based on family history, childhood adversity, and prodromal symptoms.

RESULTS

A panoply of approaches have been described, but most interventions are based on an inadequate database to support their routine implementation. We classify early stage interventions as a function of their safety and tolerability with the hope that these might generate more rigorous study and a stronger database.

LIMITATIONS

Critics may rightly argue that identifying viable treatment methods is premature given our lack of ability to reliably predict illness trajectory in very young children. However, many of the psychosocial and pharmacological interventions we present could have nonspecific positive effects across a variety of symptoms, syndromes, and diagnoses, further enhancing the rationale for more rigorous study.

CONCLUSIONS

Early stage interventions have the potential to improve functioning in prodromal illness and exert long-term positive effects on the course of illness. Many of the safest interventions deserve consideration for implementation and dissemination studies.