Risk Factor Variability and Cardiovascular Outcome: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Diabetes and Lipids: A Review and Update on Lipid Biomarkers and Cardiovascular Risk

OBJECTIVE

To review existing and new evidence regarding the relationship between diabetes and dyslipidemia and to provide an update of the lipid biomarkers used to assess cardiovascular risk and the current guidelines reflecting these changes.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review pertaining to diabetes and lipids using the MEDLINE/PubMed database. We reviewed articles in English and primarily published between 1994 and early 2025. Also included are guidelines published by professional organizations who are recognized nationally or internationally in the fields of diabetes, lipids, and cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Studies evaluating the relationship between diabetes and hypertriglyceridemia have provided practice-changing evidence. Lipid markers such as apolipoprotein B, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipoprotein (a), as well as the concept of lipid variability have emerged as treatment targets.

CONCLUSION

Over the past 30 years, non-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lipid markers have been identified to further stratify individuals with diabetes who are at risk for future cardiovascular events. Treatment targets and pharmacological therapy have been studied and continue to be updated.

Variability in Cardiometabolic Parameters and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Older Adults: Evidence From 2 Prospective Cohorts

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to assess the individual and joint associations of variability in multiple cardiometabolic parameters with mortality risk across older populations.

METHODS

A total of 51,551 Chinese elderly participants (aged ≥60 years) with ≥3 measurements of systolic blood pressure, visceral adiposity index, fasting blood glucose, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol during 2018-2022 were included. Variability metrics included SD, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and variability independent of the mean (used in primary analysis). Participants were classified on the basis of the number of high-variability (highest quartile of variability) parameters into 4 categories: with 0, 1, 2, and 3-4 high-variability cardiometabolic parameters. Cox regression analyses were performed in 2024. Findings were then externally validated using the Health and Retirement Study (Waves 8-15).

RESULTS

Higher systolic blood pressure, visceral adiposity index, fasting plasma glucose, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol variability were associated with greater all-, cardiovascular-, and other-cause mortality risk. Compared with those of subjects with no high-variability parameters measured as the variability independent of the mean, the hazard ratios (95% CI) of all-cause mortality were 1.30 (1.16, 1.44) for 1 parameter, 1.86 (1.66, 2.09) for 2 parameters, and 2.02 (1.75, 2.32) for 3-4 parameters. Consistent results were noted for cardiovascular-, cancer-, and other-cause mortality using other variability indices and in various sensitivity and subgroup analyses. These associations were validated in the Health and Retirement Study (n=1,991).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased variability in cardiometabolic parameters is associated with elevated risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality among older adults in China. Reducing variability of these parameters could serve as a target to increase life expectancy in older populations.

Impact of the National Essential Public Health Service Package on Blood Pressure Control in Chinese People With Hypertension: Retrospective Population-Based Longitudinal Study

Background

The National Essential Public Health Service Package (NEPHSP) was launched in 2009 to tackle poor blood pressure control in Chinese people with hypertension; however, it's effect is still unclear.

Objective

In a retrospective population-based longitudinal study, we aimed to evaluate effect of the NEPHSP on blood pressure control.

Methods

A total of 516,777 patients registered in the NEPHSP were included. The blood pressure control data were assessed based on the Residence Health Record System dataset. We longitudinally evaluated the effects of the NEPHSP on blood pressure control by analyzing changes in blood pressure at quarterly follow-ups. Both the degree and trend of the blood pressure changes were analyzed. We conducted stratified analysis to explore effects of the NEPHSP on blood pressure control among subgroups of participants with specific characteristics.

Results

The mean baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were 147.12 (SD 19.88) mm Hg and 85.11 (SD 11.79) mm Hg, respectively. The control rates of baseline SBP and DBP were 39.79% (205,630/516,777) and 69.21% (357,685/516,777). Compared to baseline, the mean SBP decreased in each quarter by 5.06 mm Hg (95% CI -5.11 to -5.00; P<.001), 6.69 mm Hg (95% CI; -6.74 to -6.63; P<.001), 10.30 mm Hg (95% CI -10.34 to -10.23; P<.001), and 6.63 mm Hg (95% CI -6.68 to -6.57; P<.001). The SBP control rates increased in each quarter to 53.12% (274,493/516,777; β coefficient=0.60, 95% CI 0.59-0.61; P<.001), 56.61% (292,537/516,777; β coefficient=0.76, 95% CI 0.75-0.77; P<.001), 63.4% (327,648/516,777; β coefficient=1.08, 95% CI 1.07-1.09; P<.001), and 55.09% (284,711/516,777; β coefficient=0.69, 95% CI 0.68-0.70; P<.001). Compared to baseline, the mean DBP decreased in each quarter by 1.75 mm Hg (95% CI -1.79 to -1.72; P<.001), 2.64 mm Hg (95% CI -2.68 to -2.61; P<.001), 4.20 mm Hg (95% CI -4.23 to -4.16; P<.001), and 2.64 mm Hg (95% CI -2.68 to -2.61; P<.001). DBP control rates increased in each quarter to 78.11% (403,641/516,777; β coefficient=0.52, 95% CI 0.51-0.53; P<.001), 80.32% (415,062/516,777; β coefficient=0.67, 95% CI 0.66-0.68; P<.001), 83.17% (429,829/516,777; β coefficient=0.89, 95% CI 0.88-0.90; P<.001), and 79.47% (410,662/516,777; β coefficient=0.61, 95% CI 0.60-0.62; P<.001). The older age group had a larger decrease in their mean SBP (β coefficient=0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90; P<.001) and a larger increase in SBP control rates (β coefficient=0.054, 95% CI 0.051-0.058; P<.001). The participants with cardiovascular disease (CVD) had a smaller decrease in their mean SBP (β coefficient=-0.38, 95% CI -0.41 to -0.35; P<.001) and smaller increase in SBP control rates (β coefficient=-0.041, 95% CI -0.045 to -0.037; P<.001) compared to the blood pressure of participants without CVD.

Conclusions

The NEPHSP was effective in improving blood pressure control of Chinese people with hypertension. Blood pressure control of older individuals and those with CVD need to be intensified.

ACE Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers for the Primary and Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Outcomes: Recommendations from the 2024 Egyptian Cardiology Expert Consensus in Collaboration with the CVREP Foundation

INTRODUCTION

The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) plays a pivotal role in regulating blood pressure (BP), with dysregulation of RAAS resulting in hypertension and potentially heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), cardio-renal syndrome, and stroke. RAAS inhibitors, such as angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), have advantages beyond BP control. However, differences between these two drug classes need to be considered when choosing a therapy for preventing cardiovascular events.

METHODS

A panel of 36 Egyptian cardiologists developed consensus statements on RAAS inhibitors for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular outcomes and stroke, using a modified three-step Delphi process.

RESULTS

The consensus statements highlight the importance of effective BP control and the role of RAAS blockade for prevention and management of various cardiovascular diseases. ACEis and ARBs differ in their mode of action and, thus, clinical effects. On the basis of available evidence, the consensus group recommended the following: ACEis should be considered as first choice (in preference to ARBs) to reduce the risk of MI, for primary prevention of HF, and for secondary prevention of stroke. ACEis and ARBs show equivalent efficacy for the primary prevention of stroke. Evidence also favors the preferential use of ACEis in patients with type 2 diabetes, for BP control, for the primary prevention of diabetic kidney disease, and to reduce the risk of major cardiovascular and renal outcomes. Treatment with an ACEi should be started within 24 h of ST segment elevation MI (and continued long term) in patients with HF, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and/or diabetes. Angiotensin receptor/neprilysin inhibitors (ARNIs) are the first choice for patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction, with ACEis being the second choice in this group. ARBs are indicated as alternatives in patients who cannot tolerate ACEis. ACEis may be associated with cough development, but the incidence tends to be overestimated, and the risk can be reduced by use of a lipophilic ACEi or combining the ACEi with a calcium channel blocker.

CONCLUSION

RAAS blockade is an essential component of hypertension therapy; however, the protective effects provided by ACEis are superior to those of ARBs. Therefore, an ACEi is indicated in almost all cases, unless not tolerated.

Elevated blood pressure variability is associated with an increased risk of negative health outcomes in adults aged 65 and above-a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The clinical relevance of blood pressure variability (BPV) is still unknown, despite increasing evidence associating BPV to negative health outcomes (NHOs). There is currently no gold standard to define high BPV and normal reference values for BPV are lacking.

AIM

The primary aim was to examine whether high BPV can predict NHO in adults aged ≥65. The predictive value of BPV was compared to mean BP (mBP) when both parameters were available.

METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were systematically screened; 49 articles (12 retrospective, 18 prospective and 19 cross-sectional studies) were included and evaluated for methodological quality. Meta-analyses were conducted to examine the association of BPV (and mBP when available) with NHO.

RESULTS

Systolic BPV and systolic mBP seem to indicate at least comparable odds for cardiovascular disease (BPV: odds ratio (OR) = 1.33 (95% CI: 1.19-1.48, P < .00001) vs mBP: OR = 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.09, P = .0002)) and cerebral deterioration (BPV: OR = 1.28 (95% CI: 1.17-1.41, P < .00001) vs mBP: OR = 1.06 (95% CI: 1.04-1.09, P < .00001)). Increased diastolic BPV was associated with higher odds of cerebral deterioration (OR = 1.18 (95% CI: 1.04-1.35), P = .01).

CONCLUSION

High systolic BPV and high systolic mBP are associated with 33% and 6% higher odds of cardiovascular disease in adults aged ≥65, respectively. High BPV is also related to an 18%-28% and 11% increased odds of cerebral deterioration and poor stroke recovery. An overview of cut-off values is provided for the most often reported BPV parameters in literature, which can be used as a guideline to identify elevated BPV in clinical practice.

Sleep Apnea, Autonomic Disturbances, and Blood Pressure Variability

Augmented blood pressure variability has emerged as a quantity predictive of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Among the range of intrinsic and extrinsic factors shown to increase night-time, circadian, short-term, and long-term blood pressure variations, the presence and severity of obstructive sleep apnea have emerged as one of the most prevalent and potent. Obstructive sleep apnea alters acutely the normal nocturnal equilibrium between sympathetic and parasympathetic tone, magnifying nocturnal blood pressure oscillations, and induces sustained autonomic aftereffects with the capacity to amplify short-term and intersessional blood pressure variabilities. The object of this brief review is to synthesize the current understanding of the potential interrelations between obstructive sleep apnea, the acute and sustained autonomic disturbances that it elicits, and beat-to-beat blood pressure fluctuation during sleep, nocturnal dipping status, and day-to-day blood pressure variability and the consequences of these perturbations for cardiovascular risk.

Metabolic syndrome parameters' variability and stroke incidence in hypertensive patients: evidence from a functional community cohort

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a common complication of hypertension, but the predictive value of metabolic syndrome parameters' variability on stroke risk in individuals with hypertension remains unclear. Therefore, our objective was to investigate the relationship between metabolic syndrome parameters' variability and the risk of total stroke and its subtypes in hypertensive patients.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 17,789 individuals with hypertension from the Kailuan study since 2006. Metabolic syndrome parameters, including waist circumference (WC), fasting blood glucose (FBG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride (TG), were collected at three follow-up visits in the 2006, 2008, and 2010 surveys. We assess the variability utilizing the coefficient of variation (CV), standard deviation (SD), average real variation (ARV), and variability independent of the mean (VIM), with CV initially assessed. Participants were categorized based on the number of high-variability metabolic syndrome parameters (0, 1, 2, ≥ 3). Stroke cases were identified by reviewing medical records. The associations between variability in metabolic syndrome parameters and the risk of total stroke and its subtypes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard regression models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.32 years, 1223 cases of stroke were recorded. Participants with ≥ 3 high-variability metabolic syndrome parameters had an increased risk of total stroke (HR: 1.29, 95%CI 1.09-1.52), as well as an increased risk of ischemic stroke (HR: 1.31, 95%CI 1.05-1.63) compared to those without high-variability parameters. The study also examined variability in each metabolic syndrome parameter, and significant associations with an increased risk of total stroke were observed for variability in SBP (HR: 1.24, 95%CI 1.05-1.46) and HDL-C (HR: 1.34, 95%CI 1.09-1.64).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term fluctuations in metabolic syndrome parameters significantly increase the risk of total stroke, especially ischemic stroke. Maintaining low variability in metabolic syndrome parameters could benefit health, and hypertensive individuals must be regularly monitored.

Combined effect of time in target range and variability of systolic blood pressure on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in patients with hypertension: A prospective cohort study

Time in target range (TTR) and blood pressure variability (BPV) of systolic blood pressure (SBP) are independent risk factors for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality in hypertensive patients. However, the association of the combination of low TTR and high BPV of SBP with the risk of MACE and all-cause mortality is unclear. This study sought to investigate the combined effect of the TTR and BPV on the risk of MACE and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension. A total of 11 496 hypertensive patients from the Kailuan cohort study were included in our study. All participants were divided into four groups according to their TTR and BPV levels. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for incident MACE and all-cause mortality. During a median follow-up of 5.64 years, 839 MACEs (included 99 cases of myocardial infarction, 591 cases of stroke, and 191 cases of heart failure) and 621 deaths occurred. Compared with the high-TTR and low-BPV group, the HRs (95% CI) of MACE and all-cause mortality were 1.309 (1.025-1.671) and 1.842 (1.373-2.473) for the high-TTR and high-BPV group, 1.692 (1.347-2.125) and 1.731 (1.298-2.309) for the low-TTR & low-BPV group, 2.132 (1.728-2.629) and 2.247 (1.722-2.932) for the low-TTR & high-BPV group. Our study suggests that the combination of low TTR and high BPV of SBP was associated with a higher risk of MACE and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension.

Visit-to-visit variability in multiple biological measurements and cognitive performance and risk of cardiovascular disease: A cohort study

Background

Visit-to-visit variability in single biological measurements has been associated with cognitive decline and an elevated risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, the effect of visit-to-visit variability in multiple biological measures is underexplored. We investigated the effect of visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), weight, fasting plasma glucose, cholesterol, and triglycerides on cognitive performance and CVD.

Methods

Data on BP, HR, weight, glucose, cholesterol, and triglycerides from study visits in the Outcome Reduction with Initial Glargine Intervention (ORIGIN) trial were used to estimate the association between visit-to-visit variability, cognitive performance (Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score) and CVD (non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death). Visit-to-visit variation for each measurement was estimated by calculating each individuals visit-to-visit standard deviation for that measurement. Participants whose standard deviation was in the highest quarter were classified as having high variation. Participants were grouped into those having 0, 1, 2, 3, or ≥ 4 high variation measurements. Regression and survival models were used to estimate the association between biological measures with MMSE and CVD with adjustment for confounders and mean measurement value.

Results

After adjustment for covariates, higher visit-to-visit variability in BP, HR, weight, and FPG were associated with poorer MMSE and a higher risk of CVD. Effect sizes did not vary greatly by measurement. The effects of high visit-to-visit variability were additive; compared to participants who had no measurements with high visit-to-visit variability, those who had high visit-to-visit variability in ≥4 measurements had poorer MMSE scores (-0.63 (95 % CI -0.96 to -0·31). Participants with ≥4 measurements with high visit-to-visit variability compared to participants with none had higher risk of CVD (hazard ratio 2.46 (95 % CI 1.63 to 3.70).

Conclusion

Visit-to-visit variability in several measurements were associated with cumulatively poorer cognitive performance and a greater risk of CVD.

Association of Arterial Stiffness With Mid- to Long-Term Home Blood Pressure Variability in the Electronic Framingham Heart Study: Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Short-term blood pressure variability (BPV) is associated with arterial stiffness in patients with hypertension. Few studies have examined associations between arterial stiffness and digital home BPV over a mid- to long-term time span, irrespective of underlying hypertension.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate if arterial stiffness traits were associated with subsequent mid- to long-term home BPV in the electronic Framingham Heart Study (eFHS). We hypothesized that higher arterial stiffness was associated with higher home BPV over up to 1-year follow-up.

METHODS

At a Framingham Heart Study research examination (2016-2019), participants underwent arterial tonometry to acquire measures of arterial stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity [CFPWV]; forward pressure wave amplitude [FWA]) and wave reflection (reflection coefficient [RC]). Participants who agreed to enroll in eFHS were provided with a digital blood pressure (BP) cuff to measure home BP weekly over up to 1-year follow-up. Participants with less than 3 weeks of BP readings were excluded. Linear regression models were used to examine associations of arterial measures with average real variability (ARV) of week-to-week home systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) BP adjusting for important covariates. We obtained ARV as an average of the absolute differences of consecutive home BP measurements. ARV considers not only the dispersion of the BP readings around the mean but also the order of BP readings. In addition, ARV is more sensitive to measurement-to-measurement BPV compared with traditional BPV measures.

RESULTS

Among 857 eFHS participants (mean age 54, SD 9 years; 508/857, 59% women; mean SBP/DBP 119/76 mm Hg; 405/857, 47% hypertension), 1 SD increment in FWA was associated with 0.16 (95% CI 0.09-0.23) SD increments in ARV of home SBP and 0.08 (95% CI 0.01-0.15) SD increments in ARV of home DBP; 1 SD increment in RC was associated with 0.14 (95% CI 0.07-0.22) SD increments in ARV of home SBP and 0.11 (95% CI 0.04-0.19) SD increments in ARV of home DBP. After adjusting for important covariates, there was no significant association between CFPWV and ARV of home SBP, and similarly, no significant association existed between CFPWV and ARV of home DBP (P>.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In eFHS, higher FWA and RC were associated with higher mid- to long-term ARV of week-to-week home SBP and DBP over 1-year follow-up in individuals across the BP spectrum. Our findings suggest that higher aortic stiffness and wave reflection are associated with higher week-to-week variation of BP in a home-based setting over a mid- to long-term time span.

Relationship between 24 h blood pressure variability and mortality in acute myocardial infarction patients

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the mortality of patients with AMI has not declined significantly. The relationship between blood pressure variability (BPV) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unclear. We explored the relationship between 24-h BPV and mortality in patients with AMI.

HYPOTHESIS

The mortality of patients with AMI is related to BPV. We hope to provide therapeutic ideas for reducing the risk of death in patients with AMI.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study. We extracted and analyzed data from the MIMIC-IV 2.0, which was established in 1999 under the auspices of the National Institutes of Health (America). The average real variability (ARV) was calculated for the first 24-h blood pressure measurement after patients with AMI were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients were divided into four groups according to ARV quartiles. The outcomes were 30-day, 1-year, and 3-year all-cause mortalities. Data were analyzed using Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier curves, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) curves.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1291 patients with AMI, including 475 female. The patients were divided into four groups according to the qualities of diastolic blood pressure (DBP)-ARV. There were significant differences in the 30-day, 1-year and 3-year mortality among the four groups (p = .02, p < .001, p < .001, respectively). After adjustment for confounding factors, systolic blood pressure (SBP)-ARV could not predict AMI patient mortality (p > .05), while the highest DBP-ARV was associated strongly with increased 30-day mortality (HR: 2.291, 95% CI 1.260-4.168), 1-year mortality (HR: 1.933, 95% CI 1.316-2.840) and 3-year mortality (HR: 1.743, 95% CI 1.235-2.461). Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that, regardless of SBP or DBP, the long-term survival probabilities of patients in the highest ARV group were significantly lower than that of those in other groups. RCS curves showed that the death risk of patients with AMI first decreased and then increased with the increase in ARV when DBP-ARV < 8.04. The 30-day death risk first increased and then decreased, and the 1-year and 3-year death risks increased and then stabilized with ARV increase when DBP-ARV > 8.04.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that patients with AMI may have an increased risk of short- and long-term death if their DBP-ARV is higher or lower during the first 24-h in ICU.

RNA Interference With Zilebesiran for Mild to Moderate Hypertension: The KARDIA-1 Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Angiotensinogen is the most upstream precursor of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, a key pathway in blood pressure (BP) regulation. Zilebesiran, an investigational RNA interference therapeutic, targets hepatic angiotensinogen synthesis.

Objective

To evaluate antihypertensive efficacy and safety of different zilebesiran dosing regimens.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This phase 2, randomized, double-blind, dose-ranging study of zilebesiran vs placebo was performed at 78 sites across 4 countries. Screening initiation occurred in July 2021 and the last patient visit of the 6-month study occurred in June 2023. Adults with mild to moderate hypertension, defined as daytime mean ambulatory systolic BP (SBP) of 135 to 160 mm Hg following antihypertensive washout, were randomized.

Interventions

Randomization to 1 of 4 subcutaneous zilebesiran regimens (150, 300, or 600 mg once every 6 months or 300 mg once every 3 months) or placebo (once every 3 months) for 6 months.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was between-group difference in least-squares mean (LSM) change from baseline to month 3 in 24-hour mean ambulatory SBP.

Results

Of 394 randomized patients, 377 (302 receiving zilebesiran and 75 receiving placebo) comprised the full analysis set (93 Black patients [24.7%]; 167 [44.3%] women; mean [SD] age, 57 [11] years). At 3 months, 24-hour mean ambulatory SBP changes from baseline were -7.3 mm Hg (95% CI, -10.3 to -4.4) with zilebesiran, 150 mg, once every 6 months; -10.0 mm Hg (95% CI, -12.0 to -7.9) with zilebesiran, 300 mg, once every 3 months or every 6 months; -8.9 mm Hg (95% CI, -11.9 to -6.0) with zilebesiran, 600 mg, once every 6 months; and 6.8 mm Hg (95% CI, 3.6-9.9) with placebo. LSM differences vs placebo in change from baseline to month 3 were -14.1 mm Hg (95% CI, -19.2 to -9.0; P < .001) with zilebesiran, 150 mg, once every 6 months; -16.7 mm Hg (95% CI, -21.2 to -12.3; P < .001) with zilebesiran, 300 mg, once every 3 months or every 6 months; and -15.7 mm Hg (95% CI, -20.8 to -10.6; P < .001) with zilebesiran, 600 mg, once every 6 months. Over 6 months, 60.9% of patients receiving zilebesiran had adverse events vs 50.7% patients receiving placebo and 3.6% had serious adverse events vs 6.7% receiving placebo. Nonserious drug-related adverse events occurred in 16.9% of zilebesiran-treated patients (principally injection site reactions and mild hyperkalemia) and 8.0% of placebo-treated patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

In adults with mild to moderate hypertension, treatment with zilebesiran across a range of doses at 3-month or 6-month intervals significantly reduced 24-hour mean ambulatory SBP at month 3.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04936035.

Comparison of BP variability, cumulative BP, and BP trajectory for predicting cardiovascular events in the general population

OBJECTIVE

Systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV), cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP), and systolic blood pressure trajectory (trajSBP) are major indices describing characteristics of BP changes. The aim of this study was to compare their discrimination abilities for cardiovascular (CV) events.

METHODS

In 51698 subjects, associations were assessed using Cox regression in the overall cohort and Framingham risk score (FRS) stratified groups. Individuals with <10%, 10%-20%, and >20% 10-year CV risk were categorized into the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively. Discrimination capabilities were evaluated using the area under curve (AUC), Harrell's C index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination index (IDI).

RESULTS

Within a mean follow-up of 6.83 ± 0.89 years, 2330 participants had CV events, and all three markers were significantly associated with CV events. TrajSBP provided the best additional discriminative value for CV events, with improvements of 1.54% in AUC%, 0.01 in Harrell's C, 37.52% in NRI%, and 0.59% in IDI%. CumSBP had good additional discriminative capability in the intermediate to high FRS groups, but the effect sizes were smaller than those of trajSBP. Although, SBPV improved the predictive capabilities in the low-to intermediate-risk groups, the effect sizes were much smaller than those of the other indices. Sensitivity analyses excluding patients who underwent antihypertensive therapy revealed similar patterns but higher effect sizes than in the overall population.

CONCLUSION

TrajSBP provides the best additional discrimination capabilities based on traditional risk profiles and may assist the risk stratification and individual prediction for future CV events.

Multimodal Prognostic Model for Predicting Chronic Coronary Artery Disease in Patients Without Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), with metabolic disorders as a central feature, is closely correlated with coronary artery disease (CAD). Our goal was to develop a prediction nomogram that integrated multimodal data that could accurately predict the prognosis of patients with chronic coronary disease (CCD).

METHODS

We evaluated 393 patients with CCD with a low-to-intermediate pretest probability of OSAS based on polysomnography. A nomogram was constructed by means of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multiple Cox regression analyses to identify independent risk factors for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs).

RESULTS

Two hundred seventy-seven patients were randomly assigned to the training set, and 116 to the verification set. The constructed nomogram consisted of seven clinical variables: age, previous CAD, current alcohol consumption, neck circumference, apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), and triglyceride-glucose index (TyG). The nomogram showed good discriminatory power, as evidenced by Harrell's C-index values of 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.731-0.849) in the training set and 0.78 (95% CI 0.678-0.882) in the verification set. Moreover, a high correlation was observed between the predicted and actual incidence of MACEs in both the training and verification sets. Decision curve analysis demonstrated excellent clinical utility of the nomogram based on net benefit and threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed an integrated visualized prognostic nomogram that utilizes multi-modal data, including clinical characteristics, AHI, and TyG index, to predict MACEs in patients with CCD. This approach demonstrated excellent performance, highlighting the potential of combining different data sources to enhance prediction accuracy.

Selective transduction and photoinhibition of pre-Bötzinger complex neurons that project to the facial nucleus in rats affects nasofacial activity

The pre-Bötzinger complex (preBötC), a key primary generator of the inspiratory breathing rhythm, contains neurons that project directly to facial nucleus (7n) motoneurons to coordinate orofacial and nasofacial activity. To further understand the identity of 7n-projecting preBötC neurons, we used a combination of optogenetic viral transgenic approaches to demonstrate that selective photoinhibition of these neurons affects mystacial pad activity, with minimal effects on breathing. These effects are altered by the type of anesthetic employed and also between anesthetized and conscious states. The population of 7n-projecting preBötC neurons we transduced consisted of both excitatory and inhibitory neurons that also send collaterals to multiple brainstem nuclei involved with the regulation of autonomic activity. We show that modulation of subgroups of preBötC neurons, based on their axonal projections, is a useful strategy to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that coordinate and integrate breathing with different motor and physiological behaviors. This is of fundamental importance, given that abnormal respiratory modulation of autonomic activity and orofacial behaviors have been associated with the development and progression of diseases.

Multimodal data-driven prognostic model for predicting new-onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction following emergency percutaneous coronary intervention

OBJECTIVES

We developed a nomogram model derived from inflammatory indices, clinical data, and imaging data to predict in-hospital major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) following emergency percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with new-onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

Patients with new-onset STEMI admitted between June 2020 and November 2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Data pertaining to coronary angiograms, clinical data, biochemical indices, and in-hospital clinical outcomes were derived from electronic medical records. Lasso regression model was employed to screen risk factors and construct a prediction model.

RESULTS

Overall, 547 patients with new-onset STEMI who underwent PCI were included and assigned to the training cohort (n = 384) and independent verification cohort (n = 163). Six clinical features (age, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, hyperuricemia, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and Gensini score) were selected by LASSO regression to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of in-hospital MACCEs. The area-under-the-curve (AUC) values for in-hospital MACCEs risk in the training and independent verification cohorts were 0.921 (95% CI 0.881-0.961) and 0.898 (95% CI 0.821-0.976), respectively. It was adequately calibrated in both training cohort and independent verification cohorts, and predictions were correlated with actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was capable of predicting in-hospital MACCEs with good clinical benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prediction nomogram based on multi-modal data (inflammatory indices, clinical and imaging data) reliably predicted in-hospital MACCEs in new-onset STEMI patients with emergency PCI. This prediction nomogram can enable individualized treatment strategies.

Separate and Joint Associations of Remnant Cholesterol Accumulation and Variability With Carotid Atherosclerosis: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background We aimed to examine separate and joint associations of remnant cholesterol (RC) accumulation and variability with the risk of carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) in the general population. Methods and Results A total of 6213 participants who underwent 3 sequential health examinations during 2010 to 2015 were enrolled and were followed up until December 31, 2021. Cumulative RC (cumRC) and RC variability among the 3 visits were the exposure of interest in our study. Adjusted Cox models were performed to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI. C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement, and the net reclassification index were used to estimate the incremental predictive ability. During a median follow-up of 4.00 years, 2613 participants developed CAS. Higher cumRC (HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.17-1.52]) and greater RC variability (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.08-1.39]) were significantly associated with elevated risk of CAS, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Participants were divided into 4 groups according to the median of cumRC and RC variability to assess their joint associations. Compared with "low cumRC and low variability," "high cumRC and high variability" had the highest risk of CAS, followed by "high cumRC and low variability" and "low cumRC and high variability." Finally, joint assessment of RC accumulation and variability had the significantly highest incremental effect on the predictive value of CAS versus single-time-point measures of RC. Conclusions Excessive cumRC levels and greater RC variability were each independently associated with higher incidence of CAS, and their coexistence could further yield significantly higher risks.

Risk factor variability and cardiovascular risk among patients with diabetes: a nationwide observational study

AIMS

Cardiovascular risk factor control fluctuates, tends to change over time, and is potentially impacted by multifactorial interactions. Currently, the presence of risk factors, rather than their variability or interplay with one another, is taken into account to define the population at risk. The association between variability of risk factors and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk among patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains debatable.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using registry-derived data, we identified 29 471 people with T2DM, without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline, and with at least five measurements of risk factors. Variability for each variable was expressed as quartiles of the standard deviation during 3 years (exposure). The incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality was assessed during 4.80 (2.40-6.70) years following the exposure phase. The association between the measures of variability and the risk of developing the outcome was investigated through multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis with stepwise variable selection. Then, the recursive partitioning and amalgamation (RECPAM) algorithm was used to explore the interaction among the variability of risk factors associated with the outcome. An association between the variability of HbA1c, body weight, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol with the outcome considered was found. Among the six classes of risk identified by RECPAM, patients with a high variability of both body weight and blood pressure had the highest risk [Class 6, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.81; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-2.05] compared with patients with low variability of both body weight and total cholesterol (Class 1, reference), despite a progressive reduction in the mean level of risk factors during successive visits. Individuals with high weight variability but low-moderate systolic blood pressure variability (Class 5, HR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.28-1.68), patients with moderate/high weight variability associated with high/very high HbA1c variability (Class 4, HR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.20-1.49), subjects with moderate/high weight variability and with low/moderate HbA1c variability (Class 3, HR = 1.12; 95% CI 1.00-1.25), as well as those with low weight variability associated with high/very high total cholesterol variability (Class 2, HR = 1.14; 95% CI 1.00-1.30) also showed a significant increase in the risk of an event.

CONCLUSION

Combined high variability of two risk factors, particularly body weight and blood pressure, is associated with cardiovascular risk among patients with T2DM. These findings highlight the importance of continuous balancing of multiple risk factors.

Dynamic changes in nocturnal heart rate predict short-term cardiovascular events in patients using the wearable cardioverter-defibrillator: from the WEARIT-France cohort study

AIMS

While elevated resting heart rate measured at a single point of time has been associated with cardiovascular outcomes, utility of continuous monitoring of nocturnal heart rate (NHR) has never been evaluated. We hypothesized that dynamic NHR changes may predict, at short term, impending cardiovascular events in patients equipped with a wearable cardioverter-defibrillator (WCD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The WEARIT-France prospective cohort study enrolled heart failure patients with WCD between 2014 and 2018. Night-time was defined as midnight to 7 a.m. NHR initial trajectories were classified into four categories based on mean NHR in the first week (High/Low) and NHR evolution over the second week (Up/Down) of WCD use. The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization. A total of 1013 [61 (interquartile range, IQR 53-68) years, 16% women, left ventricular ejection fraction 26% (IQR 22-30)] were included. During a median WCD wear duration of 68 (IQR 44-90) days, 58 patients (6%) experienced 69 events. After considering potential confounders, High-Up NHR trajectory was significantly associated with the primary endpoint compared to Low-Down [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 6.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.56-14.45, P < 0.001]. Additionally, a rise of >5 bpm in weekly average NHR from the preceding week was associated with 2.5 higher composite event risk (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.22-5.18, P = 0.012) as well as total mortality (HR 11.21, 95% CI 3.55-35.37, P < 0.001) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 2.70, 95% CI 1.51-4.82, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Dynamic monitoring of NHR may allow timely identification of impending cardiovascular events, with the potential for 'pre-emptive' action.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT03319160.

Predicting long-term prognosis after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with new onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction: development and external validation of a nomogram model

BACKGROUND

The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index is a well-established biomarker for insulin resistance (IR) that shows correlation with poor outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease. We aimed to integrate the TyG index with clinical data in a prediction nomogram for the long-term prognosis of new onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) following primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) .

METHODS

This retrospective study included new-onset STEMI patients admitted at two heart centers for emergency PCI from December 2015 to March 2018 in development and independent validation cohorts. Potential risk factors were screened applying least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Multiple Cox regression was employed to identify independent risk factors for prediction nomogram construction. Nomogram performance was assessed based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves, Harrell's C-index and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In total, 404 patients were assigned to the development cohort and 169 to the independent validation cohort. The constructed nomogram included four clinical variables: age, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, and TyG index. The Harrell's C-index values for the nomogram were 0.772 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.721-0.823) in the development cohort and 0.736 (95%CI: 0.656-0.816) in the independent validation cohort. Significant correlation was found between the predicted and actual outcomes in both cohorts, indicating that the nomogram is well calibrated. DCA confirmed the clinical value of the development prediction nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Our validated prediction nomogram based on the TyG index and electronic health records data was shown to provide accurate and reliable discrimination of new-onset STEMI patients at high- and low-risk for major adverse cardiac events at 2, 3 and 5 years following emergency PCI.

Changes in body weight and cardiovascular risk factors in a Chinese population with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a longitudinal study

Introduction

The primary care management of blood glucose, blood pressure, lipid profiles, and body weight is important among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to prevent disease progression. Information on how weight changes would improve or deteriorate cardiovascular (CV) risk factors is warranted for making primary care recommendations. We aimed to investigate the changes in body weight and CV risk factors and to analyse their association in a Chinese population with T2DM.

Methods

We retrieved longitudinal data between 2020 and 2021 from 1,758 adult primary care patients enrolled in a diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening programme. Linear associations of changes in body weight with CV risk factors were explored. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to examine associations between different weight change categories and the worsening of CV risk factors.

Results

The mean age of all the participants was 63.71 years, and over half of participants were females. During a one-year follow-up period, 24.7% of patients had a weight loss of ≥3%, while 22.2% of patients had a weight gain of ≥3%. Patients who had a weight loss of ≥3% were more likely to prevent the worsening of haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and triglycerides, while those who had a weight gain of ≥3% tended to have worsened HbA1c, lipid profiles, and blood pressure.

Conclusion

Results from this real-world investigation suggested the concurrent need for weight loss intervention among patients who are overweight or obese and weight gain prevention among patients whose body weight falls within the normal range in the context of community-based diabetes management.

Blood pressure variability: methodological aspects, clinical relevance and practical indications for management - a European Society of Hypertension position paper ∗

Blood pressure is not a static parameter, but rather undergoes continuous fluctuations over time, as a result of the interaction between environmental and behavioural factors on one side and intrinsic cardiovascular regulatory mechanisms on the other side. Increased blood pressure variability (BPV) may indicate an impaired cardiovascular regulation and may represent a cardiovascular risk factor itself, having been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, stroke, coronary artery disease, heart failure, end-stage renal disease, and dementia incidence. Nonetheless, BPV was considered only a research issue in previous hypertension management guidelines, because the available evidence on its clinical relevance presents several gaps and is based on heterogeneous studies with limited standardization of methods for BPV assessment. The aim of this position paper, with contributions from members of the European Society of Hypertension Working Group on Blood Pressure Monitoring and Cardiovascular Variability and from a number of international experts, is to summarize the available evidence in the field of BPV assessment methodology and clinical applications and to provide practical indications on how to measure and interpret BPV in research and clinical settings based on currently available data. Pending issues and clinical and methodological recommendations supported by available evidence are also reported. The information provided by this paper should contribute to a better standardization of future studies on BPV, but should also provide clinicians with some indications on how BPV can be managed based on currently available data.

Long-term visit-to-visit variability in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol is associated with poor cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with primary nephrotic syndrome

PURPOSE

It is unclear whether long-term variability in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is associated with clinical outcomes in patients with nephrotic syndrome (NS).

METHODS

A large cohort of 1100 patients with primary NS underwent treatment and regular follow-up. Long-term variability in LDL-C was assessed by calculating its weighted standard deviation (w-SD). The primary endpoints of this study were the occurrence of arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) or kidney dysfunction. Factors associated with the w-SD of LDL-C were evaluated by linear regression. Associations of the w-SD of LDL-C with clinical outcomes were evaluated by Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 44.8 (interquartile range, 26.8, 70.1) months, 198 patients developed ASCVD (45.9 cases per 1,000 patient-years), and 84 patients developed kidney dysfunction (17.6 cases per 1,000 patient-years). The incidence rates of the primary outcomes increased across the quartiles of the w-SD of LDL-C (log-rank, P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that higher LDL-C variability was associated with an increased risk of ASCVD [hazard ratio (HR), 2.236; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.684-2.969, P < 0.001] and an increased risk of kidney dysfunction (HR, 3.047; 95% CI 2.240-4.144, P < 0.001). The results were similar after adjusting the w-SD of LDL-C by its related parameters (baseline and mean LDL-C as well as mean total cholesterol), although the mean LDL-C was also an independent risk factor for ASCVD and kidney dysfunction.

CONCLUSION

Long-term variability in LDL-C was independently associated with the risk of ASCVD and kidney dysfunction in NS patients.

Novel insights into the association between seasonal variations, blood pressure, and blood pressure variability in patients with new-onset essential hypertension

Background

Blood pressure (BP) exhibits seasonal variations, with peaks reported in winter. However, the association between seasonal variations and blood pressure variability in patients with new-onset essential hypertension is not fully understood. This study evaluated the potential association of seasonal variations with new-onset essential hypertension.

Methods

This retrospective observational study recruited a total of 440 consecutive patients with new-onset essential hypertension who underwent 24-h ambulatory electrocardiograph (ECG) and BP measurement at our department between January 2019 and December 2019. Demographic and baseline clinical data including BP variability, heart rate variability, and blood tests were retrieved. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to identify factors independently associated with mean BP and BP variability.

Results

Among the 440 patients recruited, 93 cases were admitted in spring, 72 in summer, 151 in autumn, and 124 in winter. Univariate analysis revealed that systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, SBP drop rate, DBP drop rate, 24-h standard deviation of SBP, 24-h standard deviation of DBP, 24-h SBP coefficient of variation, and 24-h DBP coefficient of variation were associated with patients admitted in winter (P < 0.05 for all). Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that winter was the influencing factor of 24-h standard deviation of SBP (B = 1.851, t = 3.719, P < 0.001), 24-h standard deviation of DBP (B = 1.176, t = 2.917, P = 0.004), 24-h SBP coefficient of variation (B = 0.015, t = 3.670, P < 0.001), and 24-h DBP coefficient of variation (B = 0.016, t = 2.849, P = 0.005) in hypertensive patients.

Conclusions

Seasonal variations are closely associated with BP variability in patients with new-onset essential hypertension. Our study provides insight into the underlying pathogenesis of new-onset essential hypertension.

Impact of febuxostat on visit-to-visit blood pressure variability: insights from the randomised PRIZE Study

Objectives

Although uric acid lowering therapies, including xanthine oxidase (XO) inhibition, may reduce the absolute level of blood pressure (BP), the effect of XO inhibition on BP variability is largely unknown. The aim of the present analysis was to evaluate the impact of febuxostat, an XO inhibitor, on BP variability in a randomised trial setting.

Methods

This was a subanalysis of the PRIZE Study, a randomised trial to evaluate the potential effect of febuxostat on carotid intima–media thickness progression. Patients with hyperuricemia and carotid plaques were randomly assigned to the febuxostat or control group. During a 24-month period, office BP and pulse rate (PR) were measured ≥3 times. BP and PR variabilities were assessed with SD and coefficient of variation (CV). The effect of febuxostat on BP and PR variabilities was adjusted with age, sex and baseline BP or PR, expressed with 95% CIs.

Results

A total of 472 patients were included into the present subanalysis. During the 24-month follow-up period, the febuxostat group had a significantly lower adjusted mean systolic BP (128.4 (126.8–130.0) vs 130.7 (129.1–132.2) mm Hg, p=0.04) and CV of systolic BP (7.4 (6.7–8.0) vs 8.2 (7.6–8.8), p=0.04) than the control group. Adjusted SD of PR was also lower in the febuxostat group than their counterpart (5.95 (4.93–6.97) vs 7.33 (6.32–8.33), p=0.04).

Conclusion

XO inhibition with febuxostat was associated with reduced visit-to-visit BP variability as well as reduced PR variability in patients with hyperuricemia and carotid plaques.

Trial registration numbers

University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trial Registry (UMIN000012911 and UMIN000041322).

Osteoarthritis, coronary artery disease, and myocardial infarction: A mendelian randomization study

Background

Observational studies indicate that osteoarthritis (OA) and coronary artery disease (CAD), as well as myocardial infarction (MI), are often diagnosed as comorbid diseases. We performed a bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) study to demonstrate whether there is a causal relationship between OA, CAD, and MI.

Methods

We extracted single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to OA in the Genetics of Osteoarthritis (GO) Consortium as instrumental variables to assess whether OA is associated with CAD and MI in the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D 1,000 Genomes genome-wide association study (GWAS). In the reverse MR, we used CAD-associated and MI-associated SNPs to the GWAS of OA to analyze their causality. These GWASs included 766,690 individuals of OA, 184,305 individuals of CAD, and 166,065 individuals of MI. MR was conducted using several methods, including the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method, the weighted median method, the MR-Egger method, and the MR-Pleiotropy RESidual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO) method.

Results

The forward causal effect of OA on CAD and MI was not observed. In reverse analysis, no causal effect was discovered for CAD on the risk of OA. Notably, we observed a causal association between MI and total OA [IVW odds ratio (OR) = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.93, 0.98, P = 4E−04] and spine OA (IVW OR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88, 0.97, P = 0.001) but a null association between MI and knee OA, hip OA, hand OA, and thumb OA.

Conclusion

This MR study identifies a potentially protective effect of genetically predicted MI on total and spine OA risks.

Trajectories of Lipid Profile and Risk of Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background: Early assessment of carotid atherosclerotic plaque characteristics is essential for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification and prediction. We aimed to identify different trajectories of lipid profiles and investigate the association of lipid trajectories with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) progression in a large, longitudinal cohort of the Chinese population. Methods: 10,412 participants aged ≥18 years with ≥2 times general health checkups were included in this longitudinally prospective cohort study at Peking University Third Hospital. We used latent class trajectory models to identify trajectories of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) over follow-up time (757 days, IQR: 388–844 days). Results: Participants with carotid plaque were more likely to be older, male, have higher body mass index, have a higher prevalence of hypertension and diabetes, and have a higher level of blood pressure, TG, TC, and LDL-C, compared with carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and normal group. Subjects were trichotomized according to different trajectory patterns into stable, moderate-stable, and elevated-increasing classes. TC ≥ 5.18 mmol/L and moderate-stable class (hazard ratio (HR): 1.416, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.285–1.559, p: 0.000), TG ≥ 1.70 mmol/L and moderate-stable class (HR: 1.492, 95% CI: 1.163–1.913, p: 0.002), TG ≥ 1.70 mmol/L and elevated-increasing class (HR: 1.218, 95% CI: 1.094–1.357, p: 0.000), LDL-C ≥ 3.36 mmol/L and stable class (HR: 1.500, 95% CI: 1.361–1.653, p: 0.000) were statistically significant associated with CAS progression compared with the reference group. Conclusions: Borderline elevated baseline lipid (TC, TG, and LDL-C) with stable and elevated-increasing trajectories were associated with CAS progression. Long-term strategies for low-level lipid are beneficial for ASCVD management.

Lipid Variability and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

No consensus has yet been reached on the associations of lipid variability (LV) with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality. We aimed to quantify the associations of different types and metrics of LV with CVDs and all-cause mortality. PubMed, Medline, and Embase databases were searched for eligible cohort studies published until 14 December 2021. Lipids included total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG). Metrics of variability included standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), and variation independent of the mean (VIM). The primary outcomes were CVDs and all-cause mortality. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate a summary of the relative risks (SRRs). Sources of heterogeneity were explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. A total of 11 articles based on seven cohorts were included. Participants in the top quartile of TC variability had an increased risk of CVDs (vs. bottom quartile: TC-CV: SRR 1.29, 95% CI 1.15-1.45; TC-SD: 1.28, 1.15-1.43; TC-VIM: 1.26, 1.13-1.41, respectively) and all-cause mortality (vs. bottom quartile: TC-CV: 1.28, 1.15-1.42; TC-SD: 1.32, 1.22-1.44; TC-VIM: 1.32, 1.25-1.40, respectively). Participants in the top quartile of HDL-C variability had an increased risk of CVDs (vs. bottom quartile: HDL-C-CV: 1.11, 1.07-1.15; HDL-C-SD: 1.18, 1.02-1.38; HDL-C-VIM: 1.18, 1.09-1.27, respectively) and all-cause mortality (vs. bottom quartile: HDL-C-CV: 1.29, 1.27-1.31; HDL-C-SD: 1.24, 1.09-1.41; HDL-C-VIM: 1.25, 1.22-1.27, respectively). LDL-C variability was also associated with an increased risk of CVDs (for top vs. bottom quartile; LDL-C-SD: 1.09, 1.02-1.17; LDL-C-VIM: 1.16, 1.02-1.32, respectively) and all-cause mortality (for top vs. bottom quartile; LDL-C-CV: 1.19, 1.04-1.36; LDL-C-SD: 1.17, 1.09-1.26, respectively). The relationships of TG variability with the risk of CVDs and all-cause mortality were inconclusive across different metrics. The effects of SRR became stronger when analyses were restricted to studies that adjusted for lipid-lowering medication and unadjusted for mean lipid levels. These findings indicate that the measurement and surveillance of lipid variability might have important clinical implications for risk assessment of CVDs and all-cause mortality.

Triglyceride-glucose index variability and incident cardiovascular disease: a prospective cohort study

Background

Recent studies have suggested that triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the impact of long-term visit-to-visit variability in TyG index on the risk of CVD is not known. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between baseline and mean TyG index as well as TyG index variability and incident CVD in a Chinese population.

Methods

We included 49,579 participants without previous history of CVD in the Kailuan study who underwent three health examinations (2006, 2008, and 2010) and were followed up for clinical events until 2019. TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. We measured TyG index variability as the SD of the residuals obtained from a linear regression on the three TyG index measurements for each individual. Multivariate-adjusted Cox models were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) with incident CVD.

Results

During a median follow-up time of 9.0 years, 2404 developed CVD. The highest tertile (T3) of baseline and mean TyG index were each associated with higher CVD incidence as compared with the lowest tertile (T1): aHR, 1.25; 95% CI 1.11–1.42; and aHR 1.40; 95% CI 1.24–1.58, respectively. Tertile 3 of TyG index variability was associated with increased CVD incidence compared to T1 group (aHR, 1.12; 95% CI 1.01–1.24). Similar findings were observed in a series of sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

Higher TyG index level and greater TyGindex variability were each independently associated with a higher incidence of CVD.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01541-5.

Assessment of Visit-to-Visit Blood Pressure Variability in Adults With Optimal Blood Pressure: A New Player in the Evaluation of Residual Cardiovascular Risk?

Background

There is a paucity of evidence regarding the association between visit‐to‐visit blood pressure variability and residual cardiovascular risk. We aimed to provide relevant evidence by determining whether high systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability in the optimal SBP levels still influences the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Methods and Results

We studied 7065 participants (aged 59.3±5.6 years; 44.3% men; and 82.9% White) in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study with optimal SBP levels from visit 1 to visit 3. Visit‐to‐visit SBP variability was measured by variability independent of the mean in the primary analysis. The primary outcome was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), defined as the first occurrence of all‐cause mortality, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. During a median follow‐up of 19.6 years, 2691 participants developed MACEs. After multivariable adjustment, the MACE risk was higher by 21% in participants with the highest SBP variability (variability independent of the mean quartile 4) compared with the lowest SBP variability participants (variability independent of the mean quartile 1) (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09–1.35). The restricted cubic spline showed that the hazard ratio for MACE was relatively linear, with a higher variability independent of the mean being associated with higher risk. These association were also found in the stratified analyses of participants with or without hypertension.

Conclusions

In adults with optimal SBP levels, higher visit‐to‐visit SBP variability was significantly associated with a higher risk of MACE regardless of whether they had hypertension. Therefore, it may be necessary to further focus on the visit‐to‐visit SBP variability even at the guideline‐recommended optimal blood pressure levels.

Blood pressure and its variability: classic and novel measurement techniques

Current hypertension guidelines recommend using the average values of several blood pressure (BP) readings obtained both in and out of the office for the diagnosis and management of hypertension. In-office BP measurement using an upper-arm cuff constitutes the evidence-based reference method for current BP classification and treatment targets. However, out-of-office BP evaluation using 24 h ambulatory or home BP monitoring is recommended by all major medical associations for obtaining further insights into the BP profile of an individual and how it relates to their daily activities. Importantly, the highly variable nature of office and out-of-office BP readings has been widely acknowledged, including the association of BP variability with cardiovascular outcomes. However, to date, the implications of BP variability on cardiovascular outcomes have largely been ignored, with limited application in clinical practice. Novel cuffless wearable technologies might provide a detailed assessment of the 24 h BP profile and behaviour over weeks or months. These devices offer many advantages for researchers and patients compared with traditional BP monitors, but their accuracy and utility remain uncertain. In this Review, we outline and compare conventional and novel methods and techniques for assessing average BP levels and BP variability, and reflect on the utility and potential of these methods for improving the treatment and management of patients with hypertension.

The most commonly available blood pressure (BP) monitoring devices are useful for capturing a snapshot BP value, but most have limited utility in measuring BP variability. In this Review, Schutte and colleagues outline the advantages and disadvantages of conventional and novel techniques to measure average BP levels and BP variability.

Although the dynamic nature of blood pressure (BP) is well-known, hypertension guidelines recommend using the average values of static BP readings (office or out-of-office), specifically aiming to level the fluctuations and peaks in BP readings.

All current BP measurement methods have imperfect reproducibility owing to the continuous fluctuation in BP readings, making it difficult to accurately diagnose hypertension.

Accumulating evidence from clinical trials, large registries and meta-analyses shows that increased BP variability predicts cardiovascular outcome, independently of the average BP values.

To date, BP variability is overlooked, with limited application in clinical practice, probably owing to a variety of complex non-standardized BP variability assessment methods and indices, and uncertain thresholds and clinical usefulness.

Novel cuffless wearable BP technologies can provide very large numbers of readings for days and months without the discomfort of traditional BP monitoring devices, and have the potential to replace current BP methods, once accuracy issues are resolved and their clinical usefulness is proved.

The Paraventricular Nucleus of the Hypothalamus in Control of Blood Pressure and Blood Pressure Variability

The paraventricular nucleus (PVN) is a highly organized structure of the hypothalamus that has a key role in regulating cardiovascular and osmotic homeostasis. Functionally, the PVN is divided into autonomic and neuroendocrine (neurosecretory) compartments, both equally important for maintaining blood pressure (BP) and body fluids in the physiological range. Neurosecretory magnocellular neurons (MCNs) of the PVN are the main source of the hormones vasopressin (VP), responsible for water conservation and hydromineral balance, and oxytocin (OT), involved in parturition and milk ejection during lactation. Further, neurosecretory parvocellular neurons (PCNs) take part in modulation of the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis and stress responses. Additionally, the PVN takes central place in autonomic adjustment of BP to environmental challenges and contributes to its variability (BPV), underpinning the PVN as an autonomic master controller of cardiovascular function. Autonomic PCNs of the PVN modulate sympathetic outflow toward heart, blood vessels and kidneys. These pre-autonomic neurons send projections to the vasomotor nucleus of rostral ventrolateral medulla and to intermediolateral column of the spinal cord, where postganglionic fibers toward target organs arise. Also, PVN PCNs synapse with NTS neurons which are the end-point of baroreceptor primary afferents, thus, enabling the PVN to modify the function of baroreflex. Neuroendocrine and autonomic parts of the PVN are segregated morphologically but they work in concert when the organism is exposed to environmental challenges via somatodendritically released VP and OT by MCNs. The purpose of this overview is to address both neuroendocrine and autonomic PVN roles in BP and BPV regulation.

Effect of blood lipid variability on mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes: a large single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dyslipidemia is a major cardiovascular risk factor and common in diabetes patients. Most guidelines focus on optimal lipid levels, while variation of lipid profiles is far less discussed. This study aims to investigate the association of visit-to-visit variability in blood lipids with all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We identified 10,583 type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥ 30 years with follow-up ≥ 3 years and who participated in the Diabetes Care Management Program at a medical center in Taiwan. Variability in lipid profiles within 3 years after entry was calculated using coefficient of variation. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate lipid variability in relation to subsequent mortality.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of 6.4 years, 1838 all-cause deaths (809 cardiovascular deaths) were observed. For each 10% increase in variability in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and total cholesterol, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of all-cause mortality were 1.30 (1.22-1.37), 1.05 (1.01-1.09), and 1.10 (1.03-1.16), respectively; those of cardiovascular mortality were 1.27 (1.16-1.39), 1.08 (1.02-1.15), and 1.16 (1.07-1.27), respectively. Each 10% increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol variability conveyed 31% greater risk of non-cardiovascular mortality. High variability in total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol increased all-cause mortality in subgroups of nonsmoking, regular exercising, non-dyslipidemia, and more severe status of diabetes at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood lipid variability except for triglyceride variability was associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Variability of the Plasma Lipidome and Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Objective:

While the risk of acute coronary events has been associated with biological variability of circulating cholesterol, the association with variability of other atherogenic lipids remains less understood. We evaluated the longitudinal variability of 284 lipids and investigated their association with asymptomatic coronary atherosclerosis.

Approach and Results:

Circulating lipids were extracted from fasting blood samples of 83 community-sampled symptom-free participants (age 41–75 years), collected longitudinally over 6 months. Three types of coronary plaque volume (calcified, lipid-rich, and fibrotic) were quantified using computed tomography coronary angiogram. We first deconvoluted between-subject (CV_g) and within-subject (CV_w) lipid variabilities. We then tested whether the mean lipid abundance was different across groups categorized by Framingham risk score and plaques phenotypes (lipid-rich, fibrotic, and calcified). Finally, we investigated whether visit-to-visit variability of each lipid was associated with plaque burden. Most lipids (72.5%) exhibited higher CV_g than CV_w. Among the lipids (n=145) with 1.2-fold higher CV_g than CV_w, 26 species including glycerides and ceramides were significantly associated with Framingham risk score and the 3 plaque phenotypes (false discovery rate <0.05). In an exploratory analysis of person-specific visit-to-visit variability without multiple testing correction, high variability of 3 lysophospholipids (lysophosphatidylethanolamines 16:0, 18:0, and lysophosphatidylcholine O-18:1) was associated with lipid-rich and fibrotic (noncalcified) plaque volume while high variability of diacylglycerol 18:1_20:0, triacylglycerols 52:2, 52:3, and 52:4, ceramide d18:0/20:0, dihexosylceramide d18:1/16:0, and sphingomyelin 36:3 was associated with calcified plaque volume.

Conclusions:

High person-specific longitudinal variation of specific nonsterol lipids is associated with the burden of subclinical coronary atherosclerosis. Larger studies are needed to confirm these exploratory findings.

Increased Visit-to-Visit Liver Enzyme Variability Is Associated with Incident Diabetes: A Community-Based 12-Year Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Fatty liver and/or increased liver enzyme values have been reported to be associated with incident diabetes. We sought to determine whether increased visit-to-visit liver enzyme variability is associated with incident diabetes.

METHODS

Study participants were recruited from the Korean Genome and Epidemiologic Study (KoGES). A total of 4,151 people aged 40 to 69 years was recruited and tested every 2 years for up to 12 years. Visit-to-visit aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) variability was evaluated in first the 6-year period through the use of various variability measurements: standard deviation (SD), average successive variability, coefficient of variation (CV), and variation independent of mean (VIM). Oral glucose tolerance test was performed at every visit.

RESULTS

During the 6-year follow-up appointments, 13.0% (538/4,151) of people developed incident diabetes. Visit-to-visit AST variability was associated with an increased risk of diabetes independent of conventional risk factors for diabetes (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment [95% confidence interval]: 1.06 [1.00 to 1.11], 1.12 [1.04 to 1.21], and 1.13 [1.04 to 1.22] for SD, CV, and VIM, respectively; all P<0.05); however, no such associations were observed in the visit-to-visit ALT variability. According to alcohol consumption status, both AST and ALT variability were independent predictors for incident diabetes in subjects with heavy alcohol consumption; however, neither AST nor ALT variability was associated with diabetes risk in subjects who did not drink alcohol heavily.

CONCLUSION

Visit-to-visit liver enzyme variability is an independent predictor of incident diabetes. Such association was more evident in those who consumed significant amounts of alcohol.

Effects of transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation on cardiovascular autonomic control in health and disease

Autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction is a well-known feature of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Studies on heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive method useful in investigating the status of cardiovascular autonomic control, have shown that a predominance of sympathetic modulation not only contributes to the progression of CVDs but has a pivotal role in their onset. Current therapies focus more on inhibition of sympathetic activity, but the presence of drug-resistant conditions and the invasiveness of some surgical procedures are an obstacle to complete therapeutic success. On the other hand, targeting the parasympathetic branch of the autonomic nervous system through invasive vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) has shown interesting results as alternative therapeutic approach for CVDs. However, the invasiveness and cost of the surgical procedure limit the clinical applicability of VNS and hinder the research on the physiological pathway involved. Transcutaneous stimulation of the auricular branch of the vagus nerve (tVNS) seems to represent an important non-invasive alternative with effects comparable to those of VNS with surgical implant. Thus, in the present narrative review, we illustrate the main studies on tVNS performed in healthy subjects and in three key examples of CVDs, namely heart failure, hypertension and atrial fibrillation, highlighting the neuromodulatory effects of this technique.

Visit-to-visit variability in the measurements of metabolic syndrome components and the risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, and arterial stiffness

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The risk of adverse health conditions varied according to the number of metabolic syndrome components. We aimed to evaluate the risk of mortality and incident cardiovascular events according to the number of components with high variability.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 43,737 Kailuan Study participants with ≥3 examinations of waist circumference, fasting blood glucose, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, and high-density lipoprotein during 2006-2013 were included in the present study. Visit-to-visit variability in each parameter was defined by the intraindividual standard deviation across visits. High variability was defined as the highest quartile of variability. Participants were classified numerically according to the number of high-variability components (e.g., a score of 0 indicated no high-variability component). There were 1551 deaths during a median follow-up of 5.9 years, and 950 incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) cases during a median follow-up of 4.9 years. In the multivariable adjusted model, compared with participants with low variability for all components, participants with ≥3 high-variability components had significantly higher risks for all-cause mortality (hazards ratio [HR], 1.61; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.35-1.91) and incident CVD event (HR, 1.45; 95 % CI, 1.16-1.82). Additionally, participants with ≥3 high-variability components had increased odds of arterial stiffness, as measured by brachia-ankle pulse wave velocity (odds ratio [OR], 1.39; 95 % CI, 1.19-1.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that participants with at least three metabolic parameters with high variability experienced increased risk of CVD and all-cause mortality.

Blood pressure visit-to-visit variability and outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

AIMS

Previous studies report that blood pressure (BP) variability is associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes in patients diagnosed with cardiovascular disease. However, studies have not fully explored this association in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). This study sought to explore the association between visit-to-visit variability (VVV) of BP and clinical outcomes in patients with HFpEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 1988 patients (mean age of 67.73 ± 9.22, 51.7% female) from the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trial were included in this study. BP-VVV was determined by standard deviation (SD) of mean systolic BP (SBP-SD) from six measurements (baseline and months 1, 2, 4, 8, and 12) during the first 12 months after randomization. Mean on-treatment SBP during the first 12 months was 127.77 ± 10.42 mmHg, and the median of SBP-SD was 8.15 mmHg. A total of 192 (9.7%) patients met the primary outcome during the subsequent median follow-up of 35.16 months, including a composite of cardiovascular death, heart failure hospitalization, or aborted cardiac arrest. Multiple Cox regression analysis showed that SBP-SD was independently associated with the increased risk of the primary outcome after adjusting for age, gender, method of BP measurement, treatment, renal function and common co-morbidities, and the mean SBP during the first 12 months [hazard ratio (HR) for fourth vs. first quartile, 1.63; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-2.49; P = 0.024]. Analysis showed that SBP-SD as continuous variable was associated with a 23% increase in the risk of primary outcome (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.43; P = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of the current study show that high SBP-VVV in patients with HFpEF is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes independent of the mean on-treatment SBP.

12-Month Results From the Unblinded Phase of the RADIANCE-HTN SOLO Trial of Ultrasound Renal Denervation

OBJECTIVES

This study reports the 12-month results of the RADIANCE-HTN (A Study of the ReCor Medical Paradise System in Clinical Hypertension) SOLO trial following unblinding of patients at 6 months.

BACKGROUND

The blood pressure (BP)-lowering efficacy and safety of endovascular ultrasound renal denervation (RDN) in the absence (2 months) and presence (6 months) of antihypertensive medications were previously reported.

METHODS

Patients with daytime ambulatory BP ≥135/85 mm Hg after 4 weeks off medication were randomized to RDN (n = 74) or sham (n = 72) and maintained off medication for 2 months. A standardized medication escalation protocol was instituted between 2 and 5 months (blinded phase). Between 6 and 12 months (unblinded phase), patients received antihypertensive medications at physicians' discretion. Outcomes at 12 months included medication burden, change in daytime ambulatory systolic BP (dASBP) and office or home systolic BP (SBP), visit-to-visit variability in SBP, and safety.

RESULTS

Sixty-five of 74 RDN patients and 67 of 72 sham patients had 12-month dASBP measurements. The proportion of patients on ≥2 medications (27.7% vs. 44.8%; p = 0.041), the number of medications (0 vs. 1.4; p = 0.015), and defined daily dose (1.4 vs. 2.2; p = 0.007) were less with RDN versus sham. The decrease in dASBP from baseline in the RDN group (-16.5 ± 12.9 mm Hg) remained stable at 12 months. The RDN versus sham adjusted difference at 12 months was -2.3 mm Hg (95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.9 to 1.3 mm Hg; p = 0.201) for dASBP, -6.3 mm Hg (95% CI: -11.1 to -1.5 mm Hg; p = 0.010) for office SBP, and -3.4 mm Hg (95% CI: -6.9 to 0.1 mm Hg; p = 0.062) for home SBP. Visit-to-visit variability in SBP was smaller in the RDN group. No renal artery injury was detected on computed tomographic or magnetic resonance angiography.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite unblinding, the BP-lowering effect of RDN was maintained at 12 months with fewer prescribed medications compared with sham.

Clinical characteristics and the severity of coronary atherosclerosis of different subtypes of bundle-branch block

BACKGROUND

Right bundle-branch block (RBBB) and left bundle-branch block (LBBB) play a role in the pathogenesis and progression of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the clinical features and the severity of coronary artery disease associated with different subtypes of bundle-branch block, according to time of new appearance, is not well characterized in patients with no known CAD.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data pertaining to consecutive patients with RBBB or LBBB who underwent coronary angiography. The severity of coronary lesions was evaluated using the SYNTAX score. The differential effect of new-onset RBBB, old RBBB, new-onset LBBB, and old LBBB on the severity of CAD and its association with clinical characteristics was quantified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of RBBB and LBBB on the degree of coronary atherosclerosis in patients without known CAD.

RESULTS

Out of the 243 patients, 72 patients had old LBBB, 37 had new-onset LBBB, 93 patients had old RBBB, and 41 patients had new-onset RBBB. On univariate analysis, age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, serum glucose, and glycosylated hemoglobin level were associated with high SYNTAX score (p < .05 for all). Patients in the new-onset RBBB, old RBBB, new-onset LBBB, and old LBBB groups showed significant differences in baseline characteristics and coronary atherosclerosis (p < .05 for all). However, there were no significant between-group differences with respect to the degree of coronary atherosclerosis as assessed by SYNTAX score.

CONCLUSIONS

New-onset RBBB, old RBBB, new-onset LBBB, and old LBBB were not associated with the severity of coronary lesions as assessed by SYNTAX score in patients without known CAD.

Association of Body-Weight Fluctuation With Outcomes in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Aims: To investigate the relationship between body-weight fluctuation and risks of clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Methods and Results:We measured intra-individual variations in body weight from baseline and follow-up visits in 1,691 participants with HFpEF from the Americas from the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trial. The primary endpoint was any cardiovascular events (a composite of death from cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, aborted cardiac arrest, or hospitalization for HF). The body-weight fluctuation was measured according to average successive variability and high variability was defined as greater than or equal to the median. After adjustment for risk factors, mean body weight and weight change, each increase of 1 standard deviation in body-weight variability was significantly associated with increased risks of any cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-1.33, P < 0.001). Patients with high variability had a 47% increased risk of any cardiovascular events and 27% increased risk of all-cause death compared with those with low variability. Such association was similar among patients with New York Heart Association functional class I/II vs. III/IV, obesity vs. non-obesity, and weight loss, gain vs. stability (the P-values for interaction were all insignificant). Conclusion: Among patients with HFpEF, body-weight fluctuation was associated with increased risks of cardiovascular events independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and regardless of HF severity, baseline weight or weight change direction. Clinical Trial Registration: Aldosterone antagonist therapy for adults with heart failure and preserved systolic function (TOPCAT), https://clinicaltrials.gov, identifier [NCT00094302].

Long-Term Visit-to-Visit Mean Arterial Pressure Variability and the Risk of Heart Failure and All-Cause Mortality

Background: Systolic or diastolic blood pressure (BP) variability is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. We assessed whether BP variability measured by mean arterial pressure (MAP) was associated with increased risk of heart failure (HF) and death in individuals with or without hypertension. Methods: We evaluated 9,305 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants with or without hypertension and calculated BP variability based on MAP values from visit 1 to 4 [expressed as standard deviation (SD), average real variability (ARV), coefficient of variation (CV), and variability independent of the mean (VIM)]. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression model and restricted cubic spline curve were used to evaluate the associations of MAP variability with all-cause mortality and HF. Results: During a median follow-up of 16.8 years, 1,511 had an HF event and 2,903 died. Individuals in the highest quartile of VIM were both associated with a 21% higher risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR), 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.35] and HF (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.04-1.39) compared with the lowest quartile of VIM. Cubic spline curves reveal that the risk of deaths and HF increased with MAP variability when it reached a higher level. Results were similar in individuals with normotension (all-cause mortality: HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09-1.55; HF, HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.12-1.98). Conclusions: In individuals with or without hypertension, greater visit-to-visit MAP variability was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and HF, indicating that the BP variability assessed by MAP might be a potential risk factor for HF and death.

Within-visit and between-visit intra-individual blood pressure variability in an unselected adult population from rural China

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between the variability of blood pressure (BP) readings within an initial clinic visit, the variability within subsequent visits and the variability between visits over 1 week in a general population.

METHODS

This study included 1401 adult residents, who were not taking antihypertensive drugs, having BP measurements at three visits over 1 week. The difference between maximal and minimal BP readings (ΔBP), ΔBP/BPm (the mean BP value in a visit), the standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation (coefficient of variation = SD × 100/mean) of three BP values in each visit were used to estimate the within-visit BP variability (BPV). The SD and coefficient of variation of all nine BP readings over the three visits were calculated as SD9 or CV9 to reflect the overall BPV during the study visits. The SD and coefficient of variation on the mean BP values (BPm) of three visits were computed as SD-3 or CV-3, whereas the difference between maximal and minimal BP in three visits was computed as ΔBP-3 to estimate visit-to-visit BPV. The average BP or HR was the mean values of nine BP or HR readings over three visits.

RESULTS

The systolic and diastolic mean BP (SBP and DBP) decreased from the first to the third visit. The ΔBP, SD and coefficient of variation for both SBP and DBP at the first visit were positively and significantly correlated with the corresponding variables computed at the second and third visits, as well as with overall BPV (ΔBP9, SD9 and CV9). A positive correlation was also found between overall BPV and visit-to visit BPV (SD-3, CV-3 and ΔBP9). Multivariate analysis showed: no association between average SBP and systolic coefficient of variation or ΔBP/BPm but a negative association between average DBP and coefficient of variation or ΔBP/BPm for DBP at the first visit, DBP-3 and DBP9. Age was positively correlated with coefficient of variation or ΔBP/BPm for SBP at the first visit, SBP-3 and SBP9, and correlated with coefficient of variation and ΔBP/BPm for DBP only at the first visit.

CONCLUSION

In a general population, within-visit BPV at an initial visit is associated with within-visit BPV at subsequent visits and with visit-to-visit BPV over three visits within 1 week.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability is common in primary care patients: Retrospective cohort study of 221,803 adults

Objective

Although high visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular events, the frequency of high BPV is unknown. We conducted this study to define the frequency of high BPV in primary care patients, clinical correlates, and association with antihypertensive therapies.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study using electronic medical record data (with previously validated case definitions based on billing codes, free text analysis of progress notes, and prescribing data) from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network of 221,803 adults with multiple clinic visits over a 2-year period. We a priori defined a standard deviation>13.0 mm Hg in visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure (SBP) as “high BPV” based on prior literature.

Results

Overall, 85,455 (38.5%) patients had hypertension (mean 6.56 visits with SBP measurement, mean SBP 134.4 with Standard Deviation [SD] 11.3, 33.2% exhibited high BPV) and 136,348 did not (mean 3.96 visits with SBP measurement, mean SBP 120.9 with SD 8.2, 16.5% had high BPV). BPV increased with age regardless of whether individuals had hypertension or not; at all ages BPV varied across antihypertensive treatment regimens and was greater in those receiving renin angiotensin blockers or beta-blockers (p<0.001). High BPV was more frequent in patients with diabetes, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Parkinson’s disease.

Conclusions

High visit-to-visit BPV is present in one sixth of non-hypertensive adults and one third of hypertensive individuals and is more common in those with comorbidities. The frequency of high BPV varies across antihypertensive treatment regimens.

Association of 1-Year Blood Pressure Variability With Long-term Mortality Among Adults With Coronary Artery Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Accumulating evidence indicates that higher blood pressure (BP) variability from one physician office visit to the next (hereafter referred to as visit-to-visit BP variability) is associated with poor outcomes. Short-term measurement (throughout 1 year) of visit-to-visit BP variability in high-risk older patients may help identify patients at increased risk of death.

Objective

To evaluate whether short-term visit-to-visit BP variability is associated with increased long-term mortality risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The US cohort of the International Verapamil SR-Trandolapril Study (INVEST), a randomized clinical trial of 16 688 patients aged 50 years or older with hypertension and coronary artery disease, was conducted between September 2, 1997, and December 15, 2000, with in-trial follow-up through February 14, 2003. The study evaluated a calcium antagonist (sustained-release verapamil plus trandolapril) vs β-blocker (atenolol plus hydrochlorothiazide) treatment strategy. Blood pressure measurement visits were scheduled every 6 weeks for the first 6 months and biannually thereafter. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2, 1997, to May 1, 2014.

Exposures

Visit-to-visit systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP variability during the first year of enrollment using 4 different BP variability measures: standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and variability independent of the mean.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause death, assessed via the US National Death Index, beginning after the exposure assessment period through May 1, 2014.

Results

For the present post hoc analysis, long-term mortality data were available on 16 688 patients (9001 women [54%]; mean [SD] age, 66.5 [9.9] years; 45% White patients, 16% Black patients, and 37% Hispanic patients). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 10.9 (4.2) years, 5058 patients (30%) died. All 4 variability measures for SBP were significantly associated with long-term mortality after adjustment for baseline demographic characteristics and comorbidities. After comparison of lowest vs highest variability measure quintiles, the magnitude of the association with death remained statistically significant even after adjustment for baseline demographic characteristics and comorbidities (average real variability: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08-1.30; standard deviation: aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.24; coefficient of variation: aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.26; variability independent of the mean: aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.25). The signal was stronger in women compared with men. Associations of diastolic BP variability measures with death were weaker than for SBP and were not significant after adjustment.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study suggests that, in a large population of older patients with hypertension and coronary artery disease, short-term visit-to-visit SBP variability was associated with excess long-term mortality, especially for women. Efforts to identify and minimize visit-to-visit SBP variability may be important in reducing excess mortality later in life.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00133692.

Exploring the Role of Epicardial Adipose Tissue in Coronary Artery Disease From the Difference of Gene Expression

Objectives

Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) is closely adjacent to the coronary arteries and myocardium, its role as an endocrine organ to affect the pathophysiological processes of the coronary arteries and myocardium has been increasingly recognized. However, the specific gene expression profiles of EAT in coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been well characterized. Our aim was to investigate the role of EAT in CAD at the gene level.

Methods

Here, we compared the histological and gene expression difference of EAT between CAD and non-CAD. We investigated the gene expression profiles in the EAT of patients with CAD through the high-throughput RNA sequencing. We performed bioinformatics analysis such as functional enrichment analysis and protein-protein interaction network construction to obtain and verify the hub differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the EAT of CAD.

Results

Our results showed that the size of epicardial adipocytes in the CAD group was larger than in the control group. Our findings on the EAT gene expression profiles of CAD showed a total of 747 DEGs (fold change >2, p value <0.05). The enrichment analysis of DEGs showed that more pro-inflammatory and immunological genes and pathways were involved in CAD. Ten hub DEGs (GNG3, MCHR1, BDKRB1, MCHR2, CXCL8, CXCR5, CCR8, CCL4L1, TAS2R10, and TAS2R41) were identified.

Conclusion

Epicardial adipose tissue in CAD shows unique gene expression profiles and may act as key regulators in the CAD pathological process.

Excessive Orthostatic Changes in Blood Pressure Are Associated With Incident Heart Failure in Older Men: A Prospective Analysis From the BRHS

[Figure: see text].